Quote:

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
It could be in big trouble, in the past they would rely on some big Harry Potter or Avengers EndGame to turn it around with one Blockbuster earning

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Quote:

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Looks like Warner Bros new hero James Gunn just deleted all his facebook social media?


James Gunn's 11-Year-Old Facebook Comments On Previous Batman Films Resurface
https://gamerant.com/james-gunn-batman-comments-the-dark-knight-tim-bu
rton/

?
https://twitter.com/bluboy43/status/1695928958116589971

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
These are lists I've been updating weekly for going on 2 months now in the Sound of Freedom Thread, but I felt that they deserve their own thread now. The Big Budget Hollywood Movie is Dead.

As you can see from List 3, after nearly $1 Billion in movie losses so far this year on films that have completed their Domestic Box Office run in 2023, Hollywood has only seen a $450k profit overall and it's almost September. And this is when you use the 2.0x Rule of Thumb stating a movie needs to make twice its Production Budget just to break even. There is plenty of evidence out there now that the actual Rule of Thumb is at least 2.5 times in 2023, including an article by Variety that said Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania lost Tens of Millions of Dollars for Disney when I had it as a $60 Million Plus Winner, and the fact that the producers of Barbie came out and said that the Marketing Budget for the movie was $150 Million, which was $5 Million more than the Production Budget was. After theater takes, it is likely that Barbie needed 3 Times the Production Budget to break even (or $435 Million).

Granted, the wins from both of the top earners of 2023 have not been taken into account yet, so they will be getting a nice, big $2 Billion Plus bump when they exit the theaters, but there are a whole lot of big-money losers that are still showing in theaters that haven't been taken into account either, and once the year is over I will be updating to show the 2.5x Rule of Thumb as well which paints a much darker picture for the industry overall.

This will be the spot that I use to update these lists going forward. I will still put the daily lists in the Sound of Freedom thread.



08/28/2022 LISTS:

LIST 1: WORLDWIDE OPENING VS. PRODUCTION BUDGET

As of 08/28/2023, this list includes Worldwide Opening Weekend and percentage of Production Budget made on opening weekend for all American made films currently in the global top 80 that had Production Budget info available.

The only new addition this week is Gran Turismo.

1. Insidious: The Red Door / Budget: $16,000,000 / WWO: $64,000,000 / 400%
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $377,000,000 / 377%
3. M3GAN / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: $45,000,000 / 375%
4. Sound of Freedom / Budget: $14,000,000 / WWO: $42,000,000 / 300%
5. Barbie / Budget: $145,000,000 / WWO: $356,000,000 / 246%
6. Talk to me / Budget: $4,500,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 222%
7. Evil Dead Rise / Budget: $19,000,000 / WWO: $40,000,000 / 210%
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $209,000,000 / 209%
9. The Pope's Exorcist / Budget: $18,000,000 / WWO: $36,500,000 / 203%
10. Scream VI / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $67,000,000 / 191%
11. Oppenheimer / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $180,000,000 / 180%
12. John Wick: Chapter 4 / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $138,000,000 / 138%
13. Creed III / Budget: $75,000,000 / WWO: $100,000,000 / 133%
14. Ant-Man & the Wasp: Quantumania / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $250,000,000 / 125%
15. The Blackening / Budget: $5,000,000 / WWO: $6,000,000 / 120%
16. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $290,000,000 / 116%
17. Meg 2: The Trench / Budget: $129,000,000 / WWO: $142,000,000 / 110%
18. Knock at the Cabin / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $21,000,000 / 105%
19. Jesus Revolution / Budget: $15,000,000 / WWO: $15,000,000 / 100%
20. Fast X / Budget: $340,000,000 / WWO: $319,000,000 / 94%
21. Gran Turismo / Budget: $60,000,000 / WWO: $54,000,000 / 90%
22. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts / Budget: $195,000,000 / WWO: $170,000,000 / 87%
23. Mission Impossible: Dead Reck Pt1 / Budget: $290,000,000 / WWO: $235,000,000 / 81%
24. Cocaine Bear / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $28,000,000 / 80%
25. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant M / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $52,000,000 / 74%
26. The Little Mermaid / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $164,000,000 / 66%
27. The Flash / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $128,000,000 / 64%
28. The Boogeyman / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $20,000,000 / 57%
29. Shazam: Fury of the Gods / Budget: $125,000,000 / WWO: $66,000,000 / 53%
30. Book Club: The Next Chapter / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 50%
31. No Hard Feelings / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $22,000,000 / 49%
32. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Th / Budget: $150,000,000 / WWO: $72,000,000 / 48%
33. 80 for Brady / Budget: $28,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 46%
34. Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny / Budget: $300,000,000 / WWO: $131,000,000 / 43.7%
35. AIR / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $30,000,000 / 43%
36. Plane / Budget: $25,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 40%
37. Blue Beetle / Budget: $120,000,000 / WWO: $44,000,000 / 37%
38. 65 / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $12,300,000 / 27%
39. Elemental / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $48,000,000 / 24%
40. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret / Budget: $30,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 23%
41. Strays / Budget: $46,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 22%
42. Haunted Mansion / Budget: $157,750,000 / WWO: $33,082,475 / 21%
43. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 19%
44. Magic Mike's Last Dance / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $8,000,000 / 18%
45. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant / Budget: $55,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 13%
46. Renfield / Budget: $86,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 12%

I CAN'T FIND OPENING WEEKEND STATS FOR THESE MOVIES:
Asteroid City / Budget: $25,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Missing / Budget: $7,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Mummies / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Operation Fortune / Budget: $50,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?

*NOTE: I couldn't even find production budgets for the Demon Slayer anime film or the Woody Harrelson movie Champions, so I'm not even putting them on the lists unless I do. If anybody happens upon any info for either of those movies, or the opening weekend numbers for those two and the movies listed above, send me a link and I'll update the list.



LIST 2: WINNERS AND LOSERS (ACCORDING TO 2X RULE OF THUMB):

*NOTE: I went back on all the old movies marked "[FINAL]" on 08/28/2023 to see whatever changes Bruce may have made to them. Several movies, notably M3GAN, have had percentages changed.

To make comparisons easier in the future, I will archive the Top 100 Movies List for comparison the next time I do this.

Archived link as of 08/28/2023: https://archive.ph/rMaie

WINNERS:
1. M3GAN made 1,508% of its production budget of $12 Million. [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros Movie made 1,358% of its production budget of $100 Million.
3. Sound of Freedom made 1,300% of its production budget of $14 Million.
4. Talk to Me made 1,178% of its production budget of $4.5 Million.
5. Insidious: The Red Door made 1,163% of its production budget of $16 Million.
6. Barbie made 923% of its production budget of $145 Million.
7. Oppenheimer made 778% of its production budget of $100 Million.
8. Evil Dead Rise made 768% of its production budget of $19 Million. [FINAL]
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse made 687% of its production budget of $100 Million.
10. Missing made 642% of its production budget of $7 Million. [FINAL]
11. Scream IV made 483% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
12. Mummies made 442% of its production budget of $12 Million. [FINAL]
13. John Wick: Chapter 4 made 432% of its production budget of $100 Million. [FINAL]
14. The Pope's Exorcist made 406% of its production budget of $18 Million. [FINAL]
15. Creed III made 365% of its production budget of $75 Million. [FINAL]
16. The Blackening made 360% of its production budget of $5 Million. [FINAL]
17. Jesus Revolution made 353% of its production budget of $15 Million. [FINAL]
18. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 made 338% of its production budget of $250 Million. [FINAL]
19. Knock at the Cabin made 275% of its production budget of $20 Million. [FINAL]
20. Meg 2: The Trench made 274% of its production budget of $129 Million.
21. Cocaine Bear made 254% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
22. The Boogeyman made 234% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
23. Ant Man & the Wasp: Quantum made 232% of its production budget of $200 Million. [FINAL]
24. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts made 225% of its production budget of $195 Million. [FINAL]
25. The Little Mermaid made 223% of its production budget of $250 Million.
26. Elemental made 235% of its production budget of $200 Million.
27. Fast X made 211% of its production budget of $340 Million. [FINAL]
28. Asteroid City made 200% of its production budget of $25 Million.


LOSERS:
The movies which haven't doubled their production budget to cover marketing budgets and theater takes. Unless marked with [FINAL], they still have an opportunity make the Winners list.

1. Renfield made 31% of its production budget of $86 Million. [FINAL]
2. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant made 36% of its production budget of $55 Million. [FINAL]
3. Strays made 48% of its production budget of $46 Million.
4. Operation Fortune made 56% of its production budget of $50 Million. [FINAL]
5. Haunted Mansion made 58% of its production budget of $158 Million.
6. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken made 60% of its production budget of $70 Million. [FINAL]
7. Blue Beetle made 68% of its production budget of $120 Million.
8. Are You There God? IM, M made 70% of its production budget of $30 Million. [FINAL]
9. Gran Turismo made 90% of its production budget of $60 Million.
10. Shazam: FotG only made 106% of its production budget of $125 Million. [FINAL]
11. Indiana Jones and the Do Destiny made 124% of its production budget of $300 Million.
12. 65 only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
13. Magic Mike's LD only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
14. AIR only made 127% of its production budget of $70 Million. [FINAL]
15. The Flash made 134% of its production budget of $200 Million. [FINAL]
16. Dungeons & Dragon: HAT only made 139% of its production budget of $150 Million. [FINAL]
17. Book Club: TSC made 140% of its production budget of $20 Million. [FINAL]
18. 80 for Brady made 143% of its production budget of $28 Million. [FINAL]
19. No Hard Feelings made 184% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
20. Plane made 192% of its production budget of $25 Million. [FINAL]
21. Mission Impossible: DR Part 1 made 190% of its production budget of $290 Million.
22. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM made 194% of its production budget of $70 Million.


LIST 3: TOTAL STUDIO PROFITS AFTER MOVIE EXITS BOX OFFICE (BASED OFF 2X RULE OF THUMB):


[Worldwide Box Office - (Production Budget *2)]

*NOTE TO SELF: I updated all of these numbers on 08/28/2023 as well. Refer to the archived link above in List 2 when updating these numbers in the future to save a lot of work.

1. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3 + $344,321,673
2. John Wick: Chapter 4 + $232,249,673
3. M3GAN + $157,009,450
4. Creed III + $124,448,615
5. Evil Dead Rise + $108,017,671
6. Scream IV + $98,834,132
7. Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania + $63,635,303
8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts + $47,910,430
9. Fast X + $38,953,575
10. The Pope's Exorcist + $36,913,467
11. Missing +$31,100,756
12. Mummies + $29,172,225
13. Jesus Revolution + $23,113,900
14. Cocaine Bear + $19,301,105
15. Knock at the Cabin + $14,712,735
16. The Bogeyman + $12,344,833
17. The Blackening +$7,707,207

TOTAL GAINS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$1,389,746,750

LOSERS:
1. Renfield -$145,273,500
2. The Flash -$131,931,349
3. Shazam: Fury of the Gods -$117,807,638
4. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken -$97,525,786
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves -$92,417,677
6. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant -$89,622,587
7. Operation Fortune -$72,452,850
8. AIR -$50,551,734
9. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret -$38,501,808
10. 65 - $33,758,973
11. Magic Mike's Last Dance - $33,729,498
12. 80 for Brady -$15,733,910
13. Book Club: The Second Chapter -$11,525,071
14. No Hard Feelings -$6,536,124
15. Plane -$2,144,650

*NEW ADDITIONS 08/28: NONE.

TOTAL LOSSES ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: -$939,513,155

TOTAL GAIN/LOSS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$450,233,595

*NOTE: This is the total Worldwide Box Office profits using the 2.0x Rule of Thumb. I will eventually get around to adding the 2.5x Rule of Thumb for comparison. I may wait until the year is over so I'm not re-doing all that math every time Bruce adds or subtracts international numbers after the movie finishes its run.



LIST 4: DAYS IT TOOK FOR THE FILM TO BREAK EVEN (FOR 2.0X RULE OF THUMB):

Short Explanation: Take the movie's % of Domestic/International, consider that the constant split for the entire run of the movie. Use those percentages to figure out what day it made enough in the US to have made twice the production budget with the international figure on that day. Tie breaker for days goes to the movie that made the most money above two times the production budget.

(The least scientific of the three lists, but all we can work with given the abysmal state of keeping track of international numbers in 2023)

Also, until a movie is finished, this list would bounce around all over the place, so I'm not going to update any of these numbers going forward until a movie is [FINAL] and the movie will just stay in whatever place it falls on the day I put it on this list until the movie ends its theatrical run.

1. Insidious: The Red Door: 1 Day / $15M Domestic : $14M Needed (45%D / 55%I)
2. M3GAN: 1 Day / $12M Domestic : $12M Needed (52%D / 48%I) [FINAL]
3. Super Mario Bros. Movie: 3 Days / $113M Domestic : $84M Needed (42%D / 58%I)
4. Evil Dead Rise: 3 Days / $19M Domestic : $17M Needed (46%D / 54%I) [FINAL]
5. Talk to Me: 3 Days / $9M Domestic : $8M Needed (86%D / 14%I)
6. Barbie: 4 Days / $162M Domestic : $133M Needed (46%D / 54%I)
7. Miles Morales 2: 4 Days / $120M Domestic : $112M Needed (56%D / 44%I)
8. Oppenheimer: 4 Days / $95M Domestic : $88M Needed (44%D / 56%I)
9. Scream IV: 4 Days / $48M Domestic : $45M Needed (64%D / 36%I) [FINAL]
10. Sound of Freedom: 5 Days / $34M Domestic : $28M Needed (100%D / 0%I)
11. The Pope's Exorcist: 5 Days / $11M Domestic : $10M Needed (27%D / 73%I) [FINAL]
12. Missing: 5 Days / $11M Domestic : $10M Needed (73%D / 27%I)
13. John Wick: Chapter 4: 5 Days / $86M Domestic : $86M Needed (43%D / 57%I) [FINAL]
14. Creed III: 9 Days / $94M Domestic : $86M Needed (57%D / 43%I) [FINAL]
15. Jesus Revolution: 10 Days / $30M Domestic : $29M Needed (98%D / 2%I) [FINAL]
16. Meg 2: The Trench: 10 Days / $54M Domestic: $54M Needed (21%D / 69%I)
17. The Blackening: 10 Days / $10M Domestic : $10M Needed (100%D / 0%I)
18. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3: 11 Days / $220M Domestic : $215M Needed (43%D / 57%I)
19. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts: 12 Days / $107M Domestic : $107M Needed (37%D / 63%I)
20. Knock at the Cabin: 15 Days / $27M Domestic : $27M Needed (64%D / 36%I) [FINAL]
21. Ant Man & the Wasp: Q: 17 Days / $187M Domestic : $184M Needed (46%D / 54%I) [FINAL]
22. Cocaine Bear: 17 Days / $52M Domestic : $50M Needed (72%D / 28%I) [FINAL]
23. Mummies: 20 Days / $2M Domestic : $2M Needed (8%D / 92%I) [FINAL]
24. Fast X: 23 Days / $137M Domestic : $136M Needed (20%D / 80%I) [FINAL]
25: The Bogeyman: 23 Days / $37M Domestic : $36M Needed (52%D / 48%I) [FINAL]
26. The Little Mermaid: 30 Days / $268M Domestic : $265M Needed (53%D / 47%I)
27. Elemental: 38 Days / $137M Domestic : $136M Needed (34%D / 66%I)
20. Asteroid City 73 Days [ACTUAL] / $50 Million Worldwide of $50 Million Needed on Day 73

2023 LIKELY EVENTUAL WINNERS:
1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - $136M in total vs $140M needed.
2. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Pt1 - $552M in total vs $580M needed.
3. Gran Turismo - $54M in total vs. $120M needed.

2023 MOVIES LIKELY (OR CERTAINLY IF FINAL) TO NEVER BREAK EVEN:
1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $371M of $600M needed.
2. Haunted Mansion - $92M of $316M needed.
3. Blue Beetle - $82M of $240M needed.
4. Renfield - $27M of $172M needed. [FINAL]
5. The Flash - $268M of $400M needed. [FINAL]
6. Shazam: Fury of the Gods - $132M of $250M needed. [FINAL]
7. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken - $42M of $140M needed. [FINAL]
8. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - $208M of $300M needed. [FINAL]
9. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant - $20M of $110M needed. [FINAL]
10. Operation Fortune - $28M of $100M needed. [FINAL]
11. AIR - $90M of $140M needed. [FINAL]
12. Strays - $22M of $92M needed.
13. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret - $21M of $60M needed. [FINAL]
14. 65 - $56M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
15. Magic Mike's Last Dance - $56M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
16. Book Club: The Second Chapter - $28M of $40M needed. [FINAL]
17. 80 for Brady - $40M of $48M needed. [FINAL]
18. No Hard Feelings - $84M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
19. Plane - $48M of $50M needed. [FINAL]

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
09/05/2023 LISTS:

*NOTE: Because of the holiday weekend, none of the final numbers were posted for any of the movies until long after Monday's numbers were in too. With the amount of movies I'm doing information on now, I won't be removing Monday from the totals this week, and when we go back to normal next week it's just going to be the 6 days after Labor Day.

The single exception here is going to be the new addition The Equalizer 3 since we want to have legitimate opening weekend numbers for all of the movies.

LIST 1: WORLDWIDE OPENING VS. PRODUCTION BUDGET

As of 09/05/2023, this list includes Worldwide Opening Weekend and percentage of Production Budget made on opening weekend for all American made films currently in the global top 80 that had Production Budget info available. Some movies that were in the Top 80 are now in the Top 90.

The only new addition this week is The Equalizer 3.

1. Insidious: The Red Door / Budget: $16,000,000 / WWO: $64,000,000 / 400%
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $377,000,000 / 377%
3. M3GAN / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: $45,000,000 / 375%
4. Sound of Freedom / Budget: $14,000,000 / WWO: $42,000,000 / 300%
5. Barbie / Budget: $145,000,000 / WWO: $356,000,000 / 246%
6. Talk to me / Budget: $4,500,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 222%
7. Evil Dead Rise / Budget: $19,000,000 / WWO: $40,000,000 / 210%
8. Miles Morales 2 / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $209,000,000 / 209%
9. The Pope's Exorcist / Budget: $18,000,000 / WWO: $36,500,000 / 203%
10. Scream VI / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $67,000,000 / 191%
11. Oppenheimer / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $180,000,000 / 180%
12. John Wick: Chapter 4 / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $138,000,000 / 138%
13. Creed III / Budget: $75,000,000 / WWO: $100,000,000 / 133%
14. Ant-Man & the Wasp: Quantumania / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $250,000,000 / 125%
15. The Blackening / Budget: $5,000,000 / WWO: $6,000,000 / 120%
16. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $290,000,000 / 116%
17. Meg 2: The Trench / Budget: $129,000,000 / WWO: $142,000,000 / 110%
18. Knock at the Cabin / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $21,000,000 / 105%
19. Jesus Revolution / Budget: $15,000,000 / WWO: $15,000,000 / 100%
20. Fast X / Budget: $340,000,000 / WWO: $319,000,000 / 94%
21. Gran Turismo / Budget: $60,000,000 / WWO: $54,000,000 / 90%
22. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts / Budget: $195,000,000 / WWO: $170,000,000 / 87%
23. The Equalizer 3 / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $61,000,000 / 87%
24. Mission Impossible: Dead Reck Pt1 / Budget: $290,000,000 / WWO: $235,000,000 / 81%
25. Cocaine Bear / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $28,000,000 / 80%
26. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant M / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $52,000,000 / 74%
27. The Little Mermaid / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $164,000,000 / 66%
28. The Flash / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $128,000,000 / 64%
29. The Boogeyman / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $20,000,000 / 57%
30. Shazam: Fury of the Gods / Budget: $125,000,000 / WWO: $66,000,000 / 53%
31. Book Club: The Next Chapter / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 50%
32. No Hard Feelings / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $22,000,000 / 49%
33. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Th / Budget: $150,000,000 / WWO: $72,000,000 / 48%
34. 80 for Brady / Budget: $28,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 46%
35. Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny / Budget: $300,000,000 / WWO: $131,000,000 / 43.7%
36. AIR / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $30,000,000 / 43%
37. Plane / Budget: $25,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 40%
38. Blue Beetle / Budget: $120,000,000 / WWO: $44,000,000 / 37%
39. 65 / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $12,300,000 / 27%
40. Elemental / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $48,000,000 / 24%
41. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret / Budget: $30,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 23%
42. Strays / Budget: $46,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 22%
43. Haunted Mansion / Budget: $157,750,000 / WWO: $33,082,475 / 21%
44. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 19%
45. Magic Mike's Last Dance / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $8,000,000 / 18%
46. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant / Budget: $55,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 13%
47. Renfield / Budget: $86,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 12%


I CAN'T FIND OPENING WEEKEND STATS FOR THESE MOVIES:
Asteroid City / Budget: $25,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Missing / Budget: $7,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Mummies / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Operation Fortune / Budget: $50,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?

*NOTE: I couldn't even find production budgets for the Demon Slayer anime film or the Woody Harrelson movie Champions, so I'm not even putting them on the lists unless I do. If anybody happens upon any info for either of those movies, or the opening weekend numbers for those two and the movies listed above, send me a link and I'll update the list.



LIST 2: WINNERS AND LOSERS (ACCORDING TO 2X RULE OF THUMB):

*NOTE: I went back on all the old movies marked "[FINAL]" on 08/28/2023 to see whatever changes Bruce may have made to them. Several movies, notably M3GAN, have had percentages changed.

To make comparisons easier in the future, I will archive the Top 100 Movies List for comparison the next time I do this.

Archived link as of 08/28/2023: https://archive.ph/rMaie

WINNERS:
1. M3GAN made 1,508% of its production budget of $12 Million. [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros Movie made 1,359% of its production budget of $100 Million.
3. Sound of Freedom made 1,357% of its production budget of $14 Million.
4. Talk to Me made 1,356% of its production budget of $4.5 Million.
5. Insidious: The Red Door made 1,163% of its production budget of $16 Million.
6. Barbie made 954% of its production budget of $145 Million.
7. Oppenheimer made 853% of its production budget of $100 Million.
8. Evil Dead Rise made 768% of its production budget of $19 Million. [FINAL]
9. Miles Morales 2 made 687% of its production budget of $100 Million. [FINAL]
10. Missing made 642% of its production budget of $7 Million. [FINAL]
11. Scream IV made 483% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
12. Mummies made 442% of its production budget of $12 Million. [FINAL]
13. John Wick: Chapter 4 made 432% of its production budget of $100 Million. [FINAL]
14. The Pope's Exorcist made 406% of its production budget of $18 Million. [FINAL]
15. Creed III made 365% of its production budget of $75 Million. [FINAL]
16. The Blackening made 360% of its production budget of $5 Million. [FINAL]
17. Jesus Revolution made 353% of its production budget of $15 Million. [FINAL]
18. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 made 338% of its production budget of $250 Million. [FINAL]
19. Meg 2: The Trench made 291% of its production budget of $129 Million.
20. Knock at the Cabin made 275% of its production budget of $20 Million. [FINAL]
21. Cocaine Bear made 254% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
22. Elemental made 238% of its production budget of $200 Million.
23. The Boogeyman made 234% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
24. Ant Man & the Wasp: Quantum made 232% of its production budget of $200 Million. [FINAL]
25. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts made 225% of its production budget of $195 Million. [FINAL]
26. The Little Mermaid made 224% of its production budget of $250 Million.
27. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM made 219% of its production budget of $70 Million.
28. Fast X made 211% of its production budget of $340 Million. [FINAL]
29. Asteroid City made 204% of its production budget of $25 Million.


LOSERS:
The movies which haven't doubled their production budget to cover marketing budgets and theater takes. Unless marked with [FINAL], they still have an opportunity make the Winners list.

1. Renfield made 31% of its production budget of $86 Million. [FINAL]
2. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant made 36% of its production budget of $55 Million. [FINAL]
3. Operation Fortune made 56% of its production budget of $50 Million. [FINAL]
4. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken made 60% of its production budget of $70 Million. [FINAL]
5. Strays made 61% of its production budget of $46 Million.
6. Haunted Mansion made 63% of its production budget of $158 Million.
7. Are You There God? IM, M made 70% of its production budget of $30 Million. [FINAL]
8. The Equalizer 3 made 87% of its production budget of $70 Million.
9. Blue Beetle made 88% of its production budget of $120 Million.
10. Shazam: FotG only made 106% of its production budget of $125 Million. [FINAL]
11. Indiana Jones and the Do Destiny made 124% of its production budget of $300 Million.
12. 65 only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
13. Magic Mike's LD only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
14. AIR only made 127% of its production budget of $70 Million. [FINAL]
15. The Flash made 134% of its production budget of $200 Million. [FINAL]
16. Gran Turismo made 135% of its production budget of $60 Million.
17. Dungeons & Dragon: HAT only made 139% of its production budget of $150 Million. [FINAL]
18. Book Club: TSC made 140% of its production budget of $20 Million. [FINAL]
19. 80 for Brady made 143% of its production budget of $28 Million. [FINAL]
20. No Hard Feelings made 184% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
21. Plane made 192% of its production budget of $25 Million. [FINAL]
22. Mission Impossible: DR Part 1 made 190% of its production budget of $290 Million.


LIST 3: TOTAL STUDIO PROFITS AFTER MOVIE EXITS BOX OFFICE (BASED OFF 2X RULE OF THUMB):


[Worldwide Box Office - (Production Budget *2)]

*NOTE TO SELF: I updated all of these numbers on 08/28/2023 as well. Refer to the archived link above in List 2 when updating these numbers in the future to save a lot of work.

1. Miles Morales 2: Across the Spiderverse +$486,760,983
2. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3 + $344,321,673
3. John Wick: Chapter 4 + $232,249,673
4. M3GAN + $157,009,450
5. Creed III + $124,448,615
6. Evil Dead Rise + $108,017,671
7. Scream IV + $98,834,132
8. Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania + $63,635,303
9. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts + $47,910,430
10. Fast X + $38,953,575
11. The Pope's Exorcist + $36,913,467
12. Missing +$31,100,756
13. Mummies + $29,172,225
14. Jesus Revolution + $23,113,900
15. Cocaine Bear + $19,301,105
16. Knock at the Cabin + $14,712,735
17. The Bogeyman + $12,344,833
18. The Blackening +$7,707,207

TOTAL GAINS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$1,876,507,733

LOSERS:
1. Renfield -$145,273,500
2. The Flash -$131,931,349
3. Shazam: Fury of the Gods -$117,807,638
4. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken -$97,525,786
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves -$92,417,677
6. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant -$89,622,587
7. Operation Fortune -$72,452,850
8. AIR -$50,551,734
9. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret -$38,501,808
10. 65 - $33,758,973
11. Magic Mike's Last Dance - $33,729,498
12. 80 for Brady -$15,733,910
13. Book Club: The Second Chapter -$11,525,071
14. No Hard Feelings -$6,536,124
15. Plane -$2,144,650

*NEW ADDITIONS 08/28: Miles Morales 2; .

TOTAL LOSSES ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: -$939,513,155

TOTAL GAIN/LOSS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$936,994,578

*NOTE: This is the total Worldwide Box Office profits using the 2.0x Rule of Thumb. I will eventually get around to adding the 2.5x Rule of Thumb for comparison. I may wait until the year is over so I'm not re-doing all that math every time Bruce adds or subtracts international numbers after the movie finishes its run.



LIST 4: DAYS IT TOOK FOR THE FILM TO BREAK EVEN (FOR 2.0X RULE OF THUMB):

Short Explanation: Take the movie's % of Domestic/International, consider that the constant split for the entire run of the movie. Use those percentages to figure out what day it made enough in the US to have made twice the production budget with the international figure on that day. Tie breaker for days goes to the movie that made the most money above two times the production budget.

(The least scientific of the three lists, but all we can work with given the abysmal state of keeping track of international numbers in 2023)

Also, until a movie is finished, this list would bounce around all over the place, so I'm not going to update any of these numbers going forward until a movie is [FINAL] and the movie will just stay in whatever place it falls on the day I put it on this list until the movie ends its theatrical run.

1. Insidious: The Red Door: 1 Day / $15M Domestic : $14M Needed (45%D / 55%I)
2. M3GAN: 1 Day / $12M Domestic : $12M Needed (52%D / 48%I) [FINAL]
3. Super Mario Bros. Movie: 3 Days / $113M Domestic : $84M Needed (42%D / 58%I)
4. Evil Dead Rise: 3 Days / $19M Domestic : $17M Needed (46%D / 54%I) [FINAL]
5. Talk to Me: 3 Days / $9M Domestic : $8M Needed (86%D / 14%I)
6. Barbie: 4 Days / $162M Domestic : $133M Needed (46%D / 54%I)
7. Miles Morales 2: 4 Days / $120M Domestic : $112M Needed (56%D / 44%I)
8. Oppenheimer: 4 Days / $95M Domestic : $88M Needed (44%D / 56%I)
9. Scream IV: 4 Days / $48M Domestic : $45M Needed (64%D / 36%I) [FINAL]
10. Sound of Freedom: 5 Days / $34M Domestic : $28M Needed (100%D / 0%I)
11. The Pope's Exorcist: 5 Days / $11M Domestic : $10M Needed (27%D / 73%I) [FINAL]
12. Missing: 5 Days / $11M Domestic : $10M Needed (73%D / 27%I)
13. John Wick: Chapter 4: 5 Days / $86M Domestic : $86M Needed (43%D / 57%I) [FINAL]
14. Creed III: 9 Days / $94M Domestic : $86M Needed (57%D / 43%I) [FINAL]
15. Jesus Revolution: 10 Days / $30M Domestic : $29M Needed (98%D / 2%I) [FINAL]
16. Meg 2: The Trench: 10 Days / $54M Domestic: $54M Needed (21%D / 69%I)
17. The Blackening: 10 Days / $10M Domestic : $10M Needed (100%D / 0%I)
18. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3: 11 Days / $220M Domestic : $215M Needed (43%D / 57%I)
19. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts: 12 Days / $107M Domestic : $107M Needed (37%D / 63%I)
20. Knock at the Cabin: 15 Days / $27M Domestic : $27M Needed (64%D / 36%I) [FINAL]
21. Ant Man & the Wasp: Q: 17 Days / $187M Domestic : $184M Needed (46%D / 54%I) [FINAL]
22. Cocaine Bear: 17 Days / $52M Domestic : $50M Needed (72%D / 28%I) [FINAL]
23. Mummies: 20 Days / $2M Domestic : $2M Needed (8%D / 92%I) [FINAL]
24. Fast X: 23 Days / $137M Domestic : $136M Needed (20%D / 80%I) [FINAL]
25: The Bogeyman: 23 Days / $37M Domestic : $36M Needed (52%D / 48%I) [FINAL]
26. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM / 26 Days / $99M Domestic : $98M Needed (70%D / 30%I)
27. The Little Mermaid: 30 Days / $268M Domestic : $265M Needed (53%D / 47%I)
28. Elemental: 38 Days / $137M Domestic : $136M Needed (34%D / 66%I)
29. Asteroid City 73 Days [ACTUAL] / $50 Million of $50 Million Needed on Day 73

2023 LIKELY EVENTUAL WINNERS:
1. Gran Turismo - $81M in total vs. $120M needed.
2. The Equalizer 3: $61M in total vs $140M needed.

2023 MOVIES LIKELY (OR CERTAINLY IF FINAL) TO NEVER BREAK EVEN:
1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $371M of $600M needed.
2. Haunted Mansion - $100M of $316M needed.
3. Renfield - $27M of $172M needed. [FINAL]
4. Blue Beetle - $105M of $240M needed.
5. The Flash - $268M of $400M needed. [FINAL]
6. Shazam: Fury of the Gods - $132M of $250M needed. [FINAL]
7. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken - $42M of $140M needed. [FINAL]
8. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - $208M of $300M needed. [FINAL]
9. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant - $20M of $110M needed. [FINAL]
10. Operation Fortune - $28M of $100M needed. [FINAL]
11. AIR - $90M of $140M needed. [FINAL]
12. Strays - $28M of $92M needed.
13. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret - $21M of $60M needed. [FINAL]
14. 65 - $56M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
15. Magic Mike's Last Dance - $56M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
16. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Pt1 - $560M in total vs $580M needed.
17. Book Club: The Second Chapter - $28M of $40M needed. [FINAL]
18. 80 for Brady - $40M of $48M needed. [FINAL]
19. No Hard Feelings - $84M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
20. Plane - $48M of $50M needed. [FINAL]

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Quote:

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
2023 summer box office: How Barbenheimer changed game and why big-budgeted films missed the mark

https://canoe.com/entertainment/movies/the-2023-summer-box-office-how-
barbenheimer-changed-the-game-and-why-big-budgeted-films-missed-the-mark/wcm/0060e3d1-e848-4cfd-9a4a-0f2fc0ed91cf

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
By no means is it doing terrible, with nearly $76 Million in the bank after only 7 days and only 3 more days until more international numbers get reported... but it does have a much larger Domestic Box Office than International right now (about 2/3rds) than the first two movies had. (52% for E1 and 54% for E2).

So unless there is some delay in International reporting going on here, or unless there are still countries it's going to be shown in that it hasn't yet, this one might be in trouble. I do see that it has yet to open in Argentina, Brazil and Japan. The first movie was so old that Bruce doesn't have any in-depth International numbers for it, but those 3 territories did somewhere in the area of $10 Million for the sequel. The International list for E2 is about twice to even three times as long as they currently have up for E3 as well, so maybe the worry here is about nothing.

But it's seeing a pretty rapid drop of in Domestic Numbers compared to E2 right now, with the last 3 days this week making about a Million less per day than E2 did.

With Horror movies seeing somewhat of a resurgence in 2023 and The Nun II coming out this weekend, The Equalizer might be mortally wounded already.

Even with a $70M budget less than the predecessor, it has a big hill to climb to get to $175M to break even on 2.5x RoT. Especially since it will probably only see $1 or $2 Million in physical sales after the fact if it's lucky in 2023.

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Anyways appreciate the effort for the graph

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PAW Patrol The Mighty Movie seems to be doing ok in Asia, Latin America and Europe, Paramount Pictures under Nickelodeon Movies, its a bunch of computer cartoon dogs flying around, voice cast includes Mckenna Grace , Taraji P. Henson, Marsai Martin, Christian Convery, Kim Kardashian, Chris Rock, Lil Rel Howery, Serena Williams, North West, Saint West, James Marsden, Kristen Bell.
It cost $30 million to make.

'Paw Patrol' does look like a kids Cartoon and not one of these hyper-real CGI things

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Japan is not know for big box office but they are starting to watch their own films again, Don't Call it Mystery The Movie

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'Barbie' is still making money, Oppenheimer still makes money but not much

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Some of your predictions with movies came out almost exactly as they are with movie earnings but you did get a Predicting Failure of Barbie and Oppenheimer wrong.

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They say 'Strange World' and Moonfall lost somewhere between $138-$197 Million?
The box office Turkey bombs but when...when entertainment news Media is sometimes slow to call a movie an official flop because they can still make money over seas but it seems Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is officially 'A Flop' now admitted by all websites, a failure admitted by all magazines and studios.

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Well...

If you knew the ending to Exorcist: Believer like I do now, you'd be shocked that the critics didn't love it.

But a 22% at Rotten Tomatoes: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_exorcist_believer

Either woke is truly dying, or the movie was just beyond terrible.

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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Well...

If you knew the ending to Exorcist: Believer like I do now, you'd be shocked that the critics didn't love it.

But a 22% at Rotten Tomatoes: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_exorcist_believer

Either woke is truly dying, or the movie was just beyond terrible.

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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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It still managed to pull in $11,910,000 on Friday. (This includes the $2,850,000 from preview night, so $9,060,000).

They count those preview Thursdays with the Opening Weekend box office though, so I'm thinking this one is going to do the $26+ Million Bruce's model predicted instead of the $20 Million he said he thought it would do.

I still don't think it's going to do that great overall because everything I've heard about it either bashes some woke content or just calls the movie boring, not scary, and a pale imitation of the first movie. And that includes the critics who gave it a 22% on Rotten Tomatoes.

It won't set any records, but it should make a little bit of money for the studio. If the budget were around $5 to $10 Million it would have done a lot better.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I've always liked Denzel Washington and I've heard a lot of good things about the Equalizer series of movies, but I'm wondering if the 3rd one is going to be a success in 2023 or not.

Equalizer 1 had a Production Budget of $55 Million and grossed $192,903,624, or around 350% of the budget. Not only that, but it was 9 years ago when people still bought a lot of physical media, so it saw another $42 Million in DVD and BluRay sales.

Equalizer 2 had a $77 Million budget and grossed $190,376,181, or around 250% of the budget. Still a winner back in 2018 with the 2.0x Rule of Thumb, but not nearly as successful as the first movie with the $27 Million smaller budget. Physical media sales had started winding down by that point too, and it only saw $26 Million in DVD/BluRay sales.


Now, Bruce doesn't have the Production Budget of E3 up, but I've heard that it cost $70 Million. I'm hoping for the movie that this is the case or it's even higher than the actual budget was. Either way, they made a smart decision to not go nuts and raise the budget for E3 to $100 Million from $77 Million and it looks like they may have even dialed it back a bit.


By no means is it doing terrible, with nearly $76 Million in the bank after only 7 days and only 3 more days until more international numbers get reported... but it does have a much larger Domestic Box Office than International right now (about 2/3rds) than the first two movies had. (52% for E1 and 54% for E2).

So unless there is some delay in International reporting going on here, or unless there are still countries it's going to be shown in that it hasn't yet, this one might be in trouble. I do see that it has yet to open in Argentina, Brazil and Japan. The first movie was so old that Bruce doesn't have any in-depth International numbers for it, but those 3 territories did somewhere in the area of $10 Million for the sequel. The International list for E2 is about twice to even three times as long as they currently have up for E3 as well, so maybe the worry here is about nothing.

But it's seeing a pretty rapid drop of in Domestic Numbers compared to E2 right now, with the last 3 days this week making about a Million less per day than E2 did.

With Horror movies seeing somewhat of a resurgence in 2023 and The Nun II coming out this weekend, The Equalizer might be mortally wounded already.

Even with a $70M budget less than the predecessor, it has a big hill to climb to get to $175M to break even on 2.5x RoT. Especially since it will probably only see $1 or $2 Million in physical sales after the fact if it's lucky in 2023.

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I don't imagine that Killers of the Flower Moon are going to hurt it [The Wokecercist] any more than it hurts itself next weekend. Five Nights at Freddies will almost certainly put an end to it the following weekend though. Priscilla (the new Elvis-related biopic about Elvis being a pedophile) probably won't hurt anything the week after that, except possible overlap with the Killers of the Flower Moon audience.

Killers, BTW, had better make a TON of money. Why Paramount Pictures would think that spending $200 Million to make a 1920's FBI murder mystery set in Oklahoma is a good idea is anyone's guess. How the hell did they even spend that much money on this? This isn't a CGI heavy Disney cape flick. Leo must have held out for $50 Million or something.

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If Killers at its length can open to a $20M+ number, boosted by Imax, that’s commendable, despite the fact that the movie cost $200M.

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the biggest question raised by the footage has nothing to do with the footage, which looks suitably sumptuous and spectacular in equal measure. Instead, you can’t help but wonder how the hell Killers of the Flower Moon set Apple back by a reported $200 million, when it doesn’t look like it should cost anywhere near as much.

Make no mistake, it doesn’t exactly look as though it was made on a shoestring, but let’s not ignore the irony in Scorsese crafting a sweeping historical drama for roughly as much as it takes to create a Marvel Cinematic Universe blockbuster from the ground up. Does Killers of the Flower Moon look like it’s going to be a good movie? Yes, very much so. Does it look like a $200 million movie? We’re going to have to go out on a limb and say no, it does not.

It’s highly unlikely to come close to turning a profit in theaters, either, especially when the film’s ultimate end destination is streaming. Scorsese does whatever he wants at this stage of his career, it would seem, regardless of the eye-watering expense involved.

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