2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread by 6ixStringJack

CINEMA

2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Thursday, February 20, 2025 22:38
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Saturday, January 4, 2025 6:04 PM

On January 2nd, I got a reply in the 2024 Hollywood thread from Second that read as follows....

Quote:
You are unaware that most movies are failures. By predicting failure, you will be a success most of the time.

This statement, while obviously untrue, was meant to be a dig at me after Jaynez has congratulated me several times inside the Cinema and RWED boards regarding my picks for the year. I wasn't flawless. I doubt anybody ever could have a flawless record on this for an entire year. But I did pretty damn good overall.

This got me thinking, why not make a game of it since we're all going to be here anyway?

Here's what I propose...

Every week, we know in advance thanks to the-numbers.com which movies are being released in the box office every Friday, and a breakdown of which movies will get a Wide vs. a Limited release. In fact, if you look at the list now, you'll realize that they've already put up a loose plotting for every movie that is set to be released for the year right now.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule

While those dates are subject to change, particularly the further from today's date you go out, that would give a great roadmap of movies to look at for future predictions as you're making your predictions for the current week.

I'm going to leave the 2nd post here for the actual rules, because I don't think I could actually come up with a full list that wouldn't overlook something I hadn't thought of, or that a rule I put down now wouldn't somehow inadvertently suck the fun out of it.

Some suggestions I have made would be to allow anyone to abstain on a vote for a movie, or miss an entire week altogether. They can't gain any points if they don't bet, but they can't lose any either.

Another suggestion was to award or penalize a different point amount depending on the budget. I was thinking maybe +/- 3 points for any movie over $100 Million, while only +/- 2 points or mid-budget movies between $25 and $99 Million, and +/- 1 point for any movie with a budget under $20 Million.

Oh... and we're betting to see which movies can gross 2.5 times the Production Budget and which can't. That's the only qualifying factor here when determining what is and what isn't a loser.

I figure I'll start it off by myself if nobody is interested, and unless Second jumps in at any point he's going to bet that every movie is a loser since that was his claim, and we'll see what happens.

Let me know if you're interested in this and if you have any suggestions for rules.

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Saturday, January 4, 2025 6:04 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[rules] To be determined.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, January 5, 2025 8:37 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

quote

Hollywood’s Sequel-Led Comeback Projected to Extend Into 2025

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-03/hollywood-s-sequel-
led-comeback-projected-to-extend-into-2025

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Sunday, January 5, 2025 7:56 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

What say you Jaynez? Want to play?

With all those smaller Wide releases that come out, I think it could be interesting. I don't believe I'll have any inherent advantage over anybody else because of them. I've only ever spent time tracking movies like that if they were somehow special. Whether it be especially bad or especially good. The only ones that come to mind right now are Sound of Freedom, Five Nights at Freddy's, The Blackening, Asteroid City and Champions. And those were all from 2023.

But the problem is that we might have to create rules that end up ditching a lot of them by default too, if we can't find any budget information on them. There weren't a ton of low-budget movies to make it into my 2023 list, but 100% of the movies that I struggled to find budget numbers for were from these smaller studios.

Maybe I'm making it too difficult for anybody else to want to play.

Want to just start out playing the game for any movie that cost over $50 Million? $100 Million?

Oh... BTW... I know I didn't mention it in this new thread, but this week was a Bye week. There are no wide releases in 2025 until next weekend.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Monday, January 6, 2025 8:41 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

All Flops! Everything will start flopping.

Jan Feb is usually a bad time

Until the month March maybe

The two big ones in the World Wide Markets the USA and China, the European market is big and Japan is somewhat big-ish but European culture public holidays are not too different from the USA. I know people don't like this but for simplification you could say Australia or Canada is very 'American' culture also and put the Orient as a 'bloc' of East culture, the SKorea, Japan holidays are not too different from other in Asia but they do have extra holidays Vernal Equinox Day March it seems to have been Pagan Shinto until it was made official in modern Japan, Emperor's Birthday, National Foundation Day and Coming of Age .
In the USA there are informal holidays Valentine's Day, Saint Patrick's Day, and holidays that have become less marked by Federal holiday Martin Luther King Jr. Day a floating Monday Washington's Birthday.
In Asia Chinese New Year's Eve is the big time off celebration period, 1st, 2nd and 3rd they don't have any other holidays until 'Tomb-Sweeping Day' April, SKorean does celebrate a Lunar New Year and Independence Movement Day but its box office is small compared to the rest of the world so it can almost be ignored. Australia stands out having summers while the Northern hemisphere of the planet has winters, the Commonwealth of Australia does not agree with itself different parts have different holidays in the Federal parliamentary constitutional monarchy system, there is an agreement 'Anzac Day' is to be celebrated, Australia Day in January, Good Friday is a Christian holy day observing the crucifixion of Jesus and his death at Calvary, I think the Aussie and Japan markets can be ignored for now despite having unique and interesting vacation periods...Australia markets and Japan box office are too small compared to the overall picture.

Yep people have different languages and yup the world has different cultural holidays, Valentines? In Japan the woman gives the man gifts, Giri choco "obligation chocolate" is chocolate given by women to men on Valentine's Day
You do however sometimes get box office hits this time of year Spider-Man No Way Home, Avatar, Star Wars Rogue One, Aquaman, Bob Marley One Love, Sonic et
So Jan Feb is not always failure.

The Rom Drama movie is more difficult to predict as it will change as fashions and attitudes change, 'Pretty Woman' for example was a huge hit but I don't think it would do good today there are movies like 'Fifty Shades of Grey' which have more sado sexual elements.
Teens are growing up quicker they are no longer watching Harry Potter but also The Twilight Saga.
I think the era of some weird feminist woman writing a weird fantasy about two Cowboys in a homosexual 'Brokeback Mountain' relationship is over, I dont see that becoming a hit again any time soon.
It Ends With Us showing that 'Movies for Women' aimed and women can 'Achieve Box-Office Success' especially when the budget is low.

I had a look at your other thread 'Abysmal Numbers' and replied

'Den of Thieves 2' Flop
Game Changer Flopping
'Better Man' Flop
Hard Truths another Flop

If a Tamil Bollywood Telugu Hindi movie opens in China is well distributed across Chinese cities and the Indian budget is low then it has a chance for success.
I'm calling everything a flop until I see budgets but if you keep a movie under 100 Million that's good
if its less than 50 Million product budget that's even better and it has a great chance of success

Hollywood should also be making cheap slasher horrors seen that the genre did so well...then tinsel town got scared and terrified by Scott Cawthon...too Christian? he didn't hate Trump?

the problem today is Hollywood has learned nothing since its 2018 decline, nothing since Covid and learned nothing since DEI stuff gown. Hoolweird failed to understand SJW politics is now rejected and it is still spending 200 + Million on movie production budgets

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Monday, January 6, 2025 11:02 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Well it's not much of a game if it's just me playing against two guys who call every movie a flop.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Monday, January 6, 2025 11:34 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

by Summer?

Let us be real about the market and the insane Hollywood budgets and political messages that cost them profits

if it was 2007 then movies that struggle today would be making money
in year 2013 a movie like Kraven or Nosferatu could have made money but today

Joss movie The Avengers was a 2012 film, its unfair to expect hits like Avengers all the time but you can still have box office hits

Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. Kraven the Hunter (2024) vs. Nosferatu (2024)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Kraven-the-Hunter-(2024)/Nosferatu-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

whats coming up...Star Trek Section 31, One of Them Days a comedy 'Sony', 'Henry Danger' a superhero, Brave the Dark it had previews and liked by film fest critics, Screamboat a parody of Mickey Mouse that is public domain made into a horror.

PREDICTIONS

The Legend of Ochi makes money, an Indie US studio that films many its scenes overseas

Mickey 17 makes money

28 Years Later hit and a horror like robot Megan-2

March to Summer
a low budget Drama or Rom-Com does well, Superman and Dinosaurs and SpongeBob or some Dreamworks Disney Pixar animation

a movie from China is successful and knocks down a Hollywood film

By Summer 2025 a number of foreign language films will be in the Top10 maybe a few more in the top20 and their sucess will have cost an expensive Hollywood production its profits and helped 2 Hollywood films flop

it could be an indie Canadian slasher horror Canada movie studio or it could be Spanish or German or Japanese or French or South Korean movie that knocks down Hollywood but it is mostly likely to be a Chinese film these days that knocks Hollywood films out of the top ten or Top20

Mickey Mouse is public domain now, Screamboat is an upcoming American slasher film ...not sure.
because 'Iconic Events' studio is California I say they waste their budget on nonsense and its a fail...but I have no true budget numbers.
They did however make money with Terrifier 3 and maybe 'Iconic Events' also made some money with 'The Mitchells vs the Machines'...damaged by Covid but I think it did ok with 'streaming'
Flip a Coin on the Mickey Mouse horror?

'Thunderbolts' depends on word of mouth, critic rating, its marketing and its overseas take
news media, the Mouse is quiet, they won't tell us the budget
final film of Phase Five of the MCU.

I read they fight an evil parody of Superman called "Sentry"

currently in cinema? Kraven the Hunter from last year will continue to struggle, it can not earn much more on the global stage
Mufasa a remake on THE LION KING has been mostly rejected in Asia, China, SKorea, Japan
maybe a Hindi speaking Indian audience watched it but India is not a big market.
it has made money by Disney releasing it at the correct holiday period, global IMAX screens money and a strong hold with the French, the British, Mexico , Germany and Italy
add up 20 Million a few dozen millions to its profit if it has staying power

Successful Hollyweird films will mostly be Sequels or Prequels or re-imaginings or remakes or whatever you call them
Hollywood originality is dead

What also has changed

I think the foreign language thing is here to stay, expect a few of them to always be in the Top20 knocking down Hollywood tv and film

and a look back on 2023 and 2022

Barbie
The Super Mario Bros
Oppenheimer
Guardians of the Galaxy
Fast X
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

but then we had China ...
Full River Red

Wonka
The Little Mermaid
Mission Impossible
The Wandering Earth 2 $558,967,048 0.89%
No More Bets
Xiao Shi De Ta
Elemental
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

in year 2022

Avatar
Top Gun Maverick
Jurassic World Dominion
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Minions The Rise of Gru
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Batman
Thor Love and Thunder

and once again in the Top Ten a Chinese film
Chang Jin Hu Zhi Shui Men Qiao

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Du Xing Yue Qiu
Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Fantastic Beasts The Secrets of Dumbledore
Uncharted
Ji Su Shi Ke

Hollywood out of ideas will continue to push the 'Superhero' thing even though Disney/WB comicbook genre is mostly dead

Fantastic Four, it never worked even when comicbook movies were popular

Captain America Brave New World lots of rumors...lots of gossip

'Drop' if it has expensive Michael Bay explosions then I will assume flop..what is the budget?

Companion scheduled to be released in the United States by Warner Bros Pictures...Flop

Dog Man, did people in Europe or Asia read 'DogMan'...a question of production costs again what is the budget?

The Unbreakable Boy it was supposed to come out before Covid, American drama, delays, actors, writers strikes etc

Wolf Man, I don’t know if the budget is high I will assume 'Flop'

The Legend of Ochi an indie US studio in NYC, called A24 budget is under 10 Million, although it is a US movie
put this down as a Hollywood killer, a giant slayer, studios continue to move out of California
a lot of it was also shot in the Apuseni Mountains Romania.
HIT - Box Office Profit
it does not matter what month it comes out

March and on?

Mickey 17 a US movie a SKorea director a well known actor Robert Pattinson, I think its a hit but not sure, I have not seen the budget

28 Years Later, if the Budget is Low its a hit

M3GAN 2.0 should be a hit if the budget stays low

4th of July and Nostalgia
Jurassic World Rebirth, you also have Superman reboot, they could be big hits depending on how busy summer is

Snow White could be the biggest flop

Mortal Kombat part 2, the first one a 'reboot' that came out during Covid had the benefit of the world being shut down, nobody having anything to watch and nobody making movies
While Hollywood sees money in video game property
I see this as a sequel that flops
Budget $68 million...I would guess its original Mortal Kombat 2 budget was 40 Million but then everything was paused in mid-July due to the SAG-AFTRA strike.
Did its budget balloon to 100 Million?

I think a new Sponge Bob is out by Christmas 2025
kids animations sell, so HIT

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Monday, January 6, 2025 3:03 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Wow.

That's a lot.

You'll have to remember that list of predictions is here and see how well you did when they're all said and done.

I was thinking more of a week-by-week thing... not predicting every major movie that's set to come out next year all at once.

What I found interesting about this challenge would include a lot of movies that none of us have ever given predictions on and would otherwise not really even notice went in and out of theaters while we were looking at the monster budgets.

But like I said, the challenge there would be realizing how many of those never get a stated production budget at all, let alone a timely one that would allow us to vote before we already know if it's doing well or not.

We would have to vote every Friday night, or early Saturday morning before the Friday numbers come in. Really, there would be no time that was too early to vote for a given opening night, but since Thursday preview numbers are a thing and we have a lot more info about a movie once the Friday morning news starts rolling out it would behoove you to wait until the last minute to vote every week.

Take a look at the release schedule and tell me if you think this would be interesting.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule

There were no wide releases this week, but there will be 5 on Friday. 2 of them will have Preview Thursday numbers, but 3 of them will not because they were already in theaters and are Expanding Wide on Friday.

(NOTE: "Wide" means more than 600 theaters, in case anybody didn't know or was wondering).

New Wide Releases:

Lionsgate's Den of Theives 2: Pantera

Schloka Entertainment's Game Changer

Expands Wide:

Paramount Pictures' Better Man

Bleecker Street's Hard Truths

Roadside Attraction's The Last Showgirl

......

And now that I look at all 5 of them, it becomes clear just how hard it probably would be do keep this up every week for a year.

5 Wide Releases only 4 days away and not a single one of them have a Production Budget number stated on The-Numbers.com.

If we nix this, which we probably will after finding out we have no budget information on anything, would you still be interested in tracking the bigger movies for a year and see who gets the most predictions correct?

That would be a hell of a lot easier for me to manage and would require a lot less commitment from anyone else playing along.

Come up with a figure. $50 Million? $80 Million? $100 Million or more?

We can always start with a high number and adjust things down if we wanted to make it more interesting.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Tuesday, January 7, 2025 1:17 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

not sure of 2025 numbers but there are profits from Last year Kraven seems dead and Gladiator II won't make much more

Top movies seems like the foreign language stuff is already making a move while Hollywood sleeps?

Mufasa The Lion King
Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Moana
The Damned an international film Belgium, USA, Iceland
Nosferatu
Wicked
Pororo Underwater adventure a movie from South Korea
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets has a 2025 Re-release

China is doing animation soon, Nezha part II Box office was not massive US$70 million but part 2 is expected to do better?then Chinese had a $740M+ box office cash in year 2019 hit and it had a cheap production Budget$20 million

Sony Group Deepens Investments in Booming Anime Sector
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/ces-sony-grou
p-deepens-investments-anime-1236102709/

Nosferatu grossed $13.09M this weekend (from 3,132 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $69.29M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1876356796631421297

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Tuesday, January 7, 2025 2:42 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Numbers - Movies Released in 2024
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2024

There are hundreds of movies with $0 revenue, making it trivial to calculate those movies were unprofitable.

Then there are movies such as DarkGame (2024) with Worldwide Box Office $169,524
It has probably failed to be profitable, too.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/DarkGame-(2024-United-Kingdom)#tab=s
ummary

If you want to investigate each movie and calculate a profit, go ahead, but most of these movies lost money for the people who financed the production. On the other hand, the producers of films get paid, even when the movie loses money, which is why producers keep making movies.

Yes, most movies lose money:

• Production costs: The average cost to produce a major studio movie is around $100 million, which includes production, distribution, and marketing.

• Profit margins: According to American Film Market, 59% of movies lose money.
https://americanfilmmarket.com/do-good-reviews-matter/

• Independent films: Less than one-third of independent films recoup their investment.

• Factors that lead to losses: Movies can lose money due to high production costs, poor marketing, or lack of audience interest.

However, some movies that are considered box-office bombs can still break even or turn a profit through other revenue streams. For example, Cleopatra was a box-office bomb, but it eventually broke even when Fox sold the television broadcast rights to ABC.

Studios may also use creative accounting techniques to make it appear as if a movie is a loss when it's actually profitable. This is sometimes called Hollywood accounting.

https://www.google.com/search?q=do+most+movies+lose+money

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, January 7, 2025 9:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
[rules] To be determined.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

I don't have a clear picture.

What is the goal, the time frame, the criteria, the result?

If we find a budget figure, you usually claim some other figure is correct, from various inconsistent sources, sometimes higher or lower.

Give an example of a completed game round.

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Wednesday, January 8, 2025 7:53 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

the Hollywood model is dead, it was dying with all these Weinstein scandals but now everyone knows the profits are not real they build up these fake small studios which then loan to the big studios, that math only works when you have big hits. So creative accounting mathematics are needed, "cooking the books" and when the show goes totally out of control...like when they spend 200 - 250 Million and see a Movie in complete collapse...then Bailout Time! Growth started to die in 2007 and 2008 then it really died in 2015, it has not recovered after Covid only a brief period with Barbenheimer and now you have it all crashing again.
No profits, failures and flops, they just get Vanguard, Blackrock etc to take tax payer Fed money and bailout the bankrupt broken studios.

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Thursday, January 9, 2025 7:30 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

Give it until start of Feb, another month or two...if its a slow year maybe March

Lion King remake Mufasa and Moana are selling in China

Diamanti makes money for Italians, Rome in the 70s and prestigious tailoring.

Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 3 grossed $1.11M on Wednesday (from 3,746 locations).
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1877448917815623792

Nothing really moves yet..a horror from last year and some political Israel Palestine Middle east thing nobody wacthes

maybe give it another 20-30 days before it all gets moving

cash flow, it could be slow so maybe March we can start paying attention

Kraven currently at 58 M worldwide?

Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. From Ground Zero (2025) vs. Nosferatu (2024)

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/From-Ground-Zero-(2025-Palestine)/Nosferatu-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

profits look better with

Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (2024) vs. Nosferatu (2024)

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Sonic-the-Hedgehog-3-(2024)/Nosferatu-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Nosferatu and LionKing Mufasa from Last year
whats still out there, Sonic , A Complete Unknown ( Bob Dylan ), Wicked, Moana, Gladiator II

Harbin from SKorea, Nickel Boys, Monte-Cristo got a sudden huge boost, the animated Japan style Lord of the Rings anime seems to struggle

and in real life LA is burning, on fire as the Mayor goes to Africa as the city burns

and not The Beekeeper 2024
'A Working Man'

it was a bad year for profits 2024 nothing as big as Inside Out 2, Oppenheimer, Barbie

a remake of The Running Man is coming
https://x.com/DEADLINE/status/1869851133109539324
,
https://x.com/DEADLINE/status/1877418976311128087

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Friday, January 10, 2025 8:40 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

Mel Gibson Says He Aims To Shoot ‘The Resurrection Of The Christ’ Next Year: “It’s Very Ambitious”

https://deadline.com/2025/01/mel-gibson-joe-rogan-the-resurrection-of-
the-christ-very-ambitious-1236253457/

Sleeping Dogs movie is dead, says star Donnie Yen

https://www.polygon.com/action/506279/sleeping-dogs-movie-donnie-yen-r
elease-update

Yen didn't provide any other specifics on what happened to the Sleeping Dogs movie, but it's not uncommon for Hollywood films to fall apart or trudge through the so-called development hell and never see the light of day for any number of reasons.
In 2021, Yen said his producing partners told him it was "going to happen," with plans to begin filming in 2022, but obviously that did not happen.
While Yen's Sleeping Dogs movie may never materialize, you can watch the 2024 Russell Crowe movie Sleeping Dogs or the 1977 film Sleeping Dogs starring Sam Neill. You could also watch Bobcat Goldthwait's 2006 movie Sleeping Dogs Lie about bestiality.
The original Sleeping Dogs game had players take control of undercover cop Wei Shen, who was tasked with infiltrating the Triad gangs operating in Hong Kong and gathering evidence on their various illegal activities.

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/sleeping-dogs-movie-from-donnie-yen-
may-never-happen/1100-6528726/

Disney / Searchlight's A Complete Unknown grossed $992K on Wednesday (from 2,835 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $44.99M.

https://x.com/BORReport/status/1877472810731258311

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Friday, January 10, 2025 10:27 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

So it looks like Late Feb before it starts to get moving

by this time there will be Warner Bros Companion (2025), Dreamworks movie Dog Man (2025) Wolf Man, The Last Showgirl (2025) ... foreign you have Birdeater which Australia have been moving through film fests since 2023, some good feedback some bad feedback, very mixed will it finally get a release in 2025? Any Indian Bollywood film would probably struggle at this time and Japan are still trying top push anime after some success Attack on Titan the Movie The Last Attack, after the LOTR anime struggled I don't see it making big money, Love Hurts is an upcoming American action comedy film about a guy who used to be a hitman by Universal Pictures....Disney Marvel are not pushing anything crazy but they will have the Snow White predicted 'Loss' to deal with

a lot of LA continues to burn to the ground

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Saturday, January 11, 2025 7:28 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

it's Over!?

the End

Oscars 2025 nominations DELAYED amid catastrophic LA fires as Hollywood temporarily shuts down
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-14265201/Oscars-nominati
ons-delayed-la-fires-california-hollywood.html

Here Are All the TV and Movie Productions Paused Due to Los Angeles Fires
https://www.thewrap.com/california-fires-movie-tv-production-delays/

Hollywood thrown into chaos as wildfires rip through L.A., forcing evacuations, cancelling premieres
https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/hollywood-wildfire-los-angeles-1
.7425919
Critics Choice Awards, other film events postponed

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Saturday, January 11, 2025 1:37 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

Flop?

Why Robbie Williams couldn't crack America as new biopic fails to impress US audience

https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/robbie-williams-couldnt-cr
ack-america-34394078

VENOM: THE LAST DANCE
476.9M worldwide
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32003-venom-the-last-dance-33
71m-overseas-4769m-worldwide/#comments

Paramount's Better Man grossed an estimated $580K on Friday (from 1,291 locations), including Thursday previews. Estimated total domestic gross stands at $683K.

https://x.com/BORReport/status/1878103831734571227

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Saturday, January 11, 2025 4:49 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

Fires push movies to later years?

Universal Delays ‘Shrek 5’ to December 2026, Moves Up ‘Minions 3’ to July 2026
https://deadline.com/2025/01/shrek-5-minions-3-release-dates-123625412
2/

Nosferatu
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/
Domestic (71.1%)
$76,957,345
International (28.9%)
$31,218,714
Worldwide
$108,176,059

Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. Nosferatu (2024) vs. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Nosferatu-(2024)/Den-of-Thieves-2-Pantera-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

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Sunday, January 12, 2025 12:36 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

A24's The Brutalist

https://x.com/borreport/status/1878455270701240831

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Monday, January 13, 2025 9:57 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

its over much of it A Blaze , Smoke, Dust, Clouds of Ash and Fires...maybe they can save on the budget for the next Dystopia Zombie Apocalypse

and some fo California still burning

In 'a mass erasure of heritage,' numerous historic landmarks lost in L.A.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-01-12/landmarks-lost-pal
isades-and-eaton-fires

people re-direct flights away from California

a big expensive Olympics White Elephant to pay for

the Sun is dim, air quality down

Some ask cancel my trip to LA?

Looting and actual red flag alerts

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Tuesday, January 14, 2025 9:45 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

I didnt see the Brazil domestic market make such a quick comeback and strong comeback with its own cultural products, O Auto da Compadecida 2 'um filme brasileiro' Auto da Compadecida is a comedy of northeast Brazil, seems to be a media tradition that mixes elements of the tradition of popular literature known as cordel, a striking feature of the Brazilian Catholic baroque, mixing popular culture and religious tradition, popular and inexpensively printed booklets or pamphlets containing folk novels, poems and songs...the film is at second place which will cost Moana 2 and Mosferatu money.

There is a chance Hollywood products could really struggle overseas.

6.5 / 10

https://www.imdb.com/pt/title/tt28696532/

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Tuesday, January 14, 2025 1:58 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

not Hollywood a loss more the British and Aussie studio 'Roadshow Home Video' loss

however Paramount was involved in getting it to the US boxoffice cinema theatres

Robbie Williams mocked by Americans as new film Better Man flops at box office
https://www.express.co.uk/celebrity-news/1999965/robbie-williams-bette
r-man-ratings-flop

Robbie Williams’ $198m biopic Better Man becomes first box office bomb of 2025
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/robbie-williams-198m-biopic-b
etter-man-becomes-first-box-office-bomb-of-2025/TNLCRA7FE5FWFKR7OSNCFPUDQA/

Lionsgate's Den of Thieves 2: Pantera debuted with $15.02M domestically this weekend (from 3,008 locations).
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1878898519584743717
Daily Grosses
FRI - $5.749M
SAT - $5.845M
SUN - $3.429M

Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (2025) vs. Better Man (2024)

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Den-of-Thieves-2-Pantera-(2025)/Better-Man-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

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Tuesday, January 14, 2025 8:53 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

Oscars 'likely' to be cancelled for first time in 96 years due to LA wildfires
https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/breaking-oscars-likely-can
celled-first-34481628
The 2025 Oscars could be could be cancelled for the first time in its 96th-year history due to the Los Angeles wildfires as bosses fear the event could be in bad taste due to the devastation

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Tuesday, January 14, 2025 10:16 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

They can't zoom it?

Why can't they zoom it?

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Wednesday, January 15, 2025 2:14 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

China's own Heroic Epic film like Ben Hur, Clash of the Titans, LOTR or Gladiator. The Chinese movies pushed forward but does China match Hollywood visuals

their own Greek Roman MarvelDC mythology, adapted from the 16th-century fantasy novels

Chinese films visual fantasy scifi quality has improved

but sometimes it feels like Tv show effects or a movie that was rushed, 'The Flash' League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, Matrix Reloaded, Mortal Kombat, 'Green Lantern', Van Helsing, 'The Mummy Returns' , bad StarWars cgi not Sci-Fi Channel Original Movies or B-movie but they are lacking something

The amazing thing about Hollywood is when it did spectacle right, it did it very well, the sets, the CGI, the explosions, the mix of graphics with real life props. Terminator-2 and Jurassic Park still stand but other times it does not work

it is much better than it used to be
I feel the Chinese cinema still has a way to go to match Hollywood's visual ability to pull of the box office spectacle

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Wednesday, January 15, 2025 2:22 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

I'd love to see them remake the special effects on The Matrix with today's tech.

As mind-blowing as that movie was in its day, some of those scenes are pretty laughable today.

Other than that, it was the Perfect Movie... At least before they ruined it with the sequels and made Morpheus middle-management to a bunch of pre-BLM retards.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Thursday, January 16, 2025 10:43 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

Expect more delays with LA Fires

dates are jumping all over the place

Hollywood events postponed, canceled over LA fires: Weeknd concert, Oscar noms and more
https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2025/01/13/lo
s-angeles-wildfires-hollywood-events-cancelations/77682459007/

Can overseas movies keep their budgets low and then find a strong studio to distribute movies inside the USA, the Japanese and some European for example have been pushing stuff for years but what about newbies with few connections??

expensive Indian flops trying to break into the US market or successful hits?

India Bollywood Hindi Tamil or Telugu-language
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt14209618/
Indiatimes
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/entertainment/telugu/movies/news/g
ame-changer-vanangaan-identity-and-more-south-india-cinema-set-to-ring-in-2025/articleshow/116740052.cms
'Game Changer', 'Vanangaan', 'Identity' and more South India cinema set to ring in 2025

Hong Kong, Cantonese, English

It took ‘months’ to convince Donnie Yen to direct and star in The Prosecutor
https://www.polygon.com/action/506278/donnie-yen-the-prosecutor-interv
iew

from last year 2024, continues to sell

Disney / Searchlight's A Complete Unknown grossed $965K on Tuesday (from 2,815 locations), which was a 30% decrease from the previous Tuesday. Total domestic gross stands at $52.48M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1879658074337956065

Focus' Nosferatu grossed $1.03M on Tuesday (from 3,082 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $83.66M
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1879617067722346713

The Last Showgirl

Domestic Opening $77,589
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt31193791/credits/

The Last Showgirl observes the demise of old-world eroticism with warmth
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/film/reviews/article-the-last-sho
wgirl-observes-the-demise-of-old-world-eroticism-with/

Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (2025) vs. A Complete Unknown (2024)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Den-of-Thieves-2-Pantera-(2025)/Complete-Unknown-A-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

‘Companion,’ Sci-Fi Thriller

https://x.com/THR/status/1661825301163155472

Blumhouse Thriller 'The Woman in the Yard

an upcoming American psychological horror film, maybe March?
https://x.com/Variety/status/1757828551577940468

Stephen King Adaptation 'The Monkey'

https://x.com/DEADLINE/status/1655963200930856960

more flops?

Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (2025) vs. The Last Showgirl (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Den-of-Thieves-2-Pantera-(2025)/Last-Showgirl-The-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Superman will miss the 4th day of July? maybe or maybe not ...maybe delayed until 11...if so that's a kiss of death 2025

Until Dawn playstation
https://x.com/DEADLINE/status/1801668439112880553

many thought concept could have worked as a movie

not tv they say it goes ahead Until Dawn scheduled to be released in the United States on April 2025.

Battle of Baktan Cross, they say its based on 'Vineland' set in California, United States, in 1984, the year of Ronald Reagan's re-election
According to Variety, the film will need to gross $300 million to turn a profit

Lewis Pullman as Bob/Sentry in ‘THUNDERBOLTS*'
https://x.com/cosmic_marvel/status/1868672014250328300

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Thursday, January 16, 2025 12:38 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

Robbie Williams “Better Man” Is A Disastrous Flop

,

Better Man - Movie Review

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Saturday, January 18, 2025 11:23 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

Focus' Nosferatu grossed an estimated $1.20M on Friday (from 2,545 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $86.30M.

https://x.com/BORReport/status/1880646723980378299

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Sunday, January 19, 2025 5:37 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

Budget $14 million
https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/wolf-man-one-of-them-days-box
-office-opening-weekend-projections-holiday-1236273297/

Sony's One of Them Days grossed an estimated $4.38M domestically on Friday (from 2,675 locations), including Thursday previews.

https://x.com/BORReport/status/1880644166126059628

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Thursday, January 23, 2025 5:20 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

Harbin eats some Hollywood profits in SKorea, holding second place a 2024 South Korean biographical period drama about a Korean independence activist who assassinated Ito Hirobumi, the first Prime Minister of Japan, in 1909

Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 3 grossed $456K on Wednesday (from 3,306 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $220.22M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1882526267557470637

not that the NZ market really matters much to the overall picture...but

Weekend Box Office Est. - New Zealand
https://x.com/numeroboxoffice/status/1881144079750434888
1. SonicTheHedgehog3 - $232k
2. PaddingtonInPeru - $228k
3. MufasaTheLionKing - $227k

'Fall Guy' Director David Leitch In Talks For 'Oceans 14'

https://deadline.com/2025/01/david-leitch-oceans-14-talks-1236264161/

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Friday, January 24, 2025 2:59 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

even though China was knocking Hollywood movies out of the Top 20, top25, top10...it actually slumped going by the numbers

Worldwide cinema is down

China’s film industry hopes for a box office revival after last year’s slump
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/east-asia/china-film-industry-box-offi
ce-movie-production-economy-4853621

a new direction for Star Wars and Star Trek that fails?

The First Star Trek: Section 31 Reactions Are Brutal
https://www.slashfilm.com/1769548/star-trek-section-31-reactions-bruta
l/

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Friday, January 24, 2025 3:23 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

That's pretty bad when China has 3 movies that grossed over $1 Billion USD in a year in total and they're considering that a slump.

What? Are they being embarrassed by Japan when it comes to their production budgets too? How much are these movies costing China to make?

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Saturday, January 25, 2025 11:47 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

It's kind of funny how little I care about this topic these days.

Not really though, I guess, considering I hardly watch movies or TV shows anymore.

I was just watching for the first signs of the pendulum swinging back the other way, and I found them in Hollywood 2 years ago.

Since then, everything has changed. Just like I said it would.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Saturday, January 25, 2025 1:09 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

2025 a bad start maybe its time to talk about the hope of money in 2026 maybe this could be massive?

Not sure on China numbers, I'd like to see all the data, I've a feeling the Covid Lockdowns then Writers strike and Actors strikes gave Chinese an artificial lift taking over market share...then others seen an opportunity, Germany, Brazil, Japan, Spain, South Korea and also wanted a share of profits from tv ratings and cinema tickets.

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Saturday, January 25, 2025 11:40 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
[rules] To be determined.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
I don't have a clear picture.

What is the goal, the time frame, the criteria, the result?

If we find a budget figure, you usually claim some other figure is correct, from various inconsistent sources, sometimes higher or lower.

Give an example of a completed game round.

I still don't understand the rules of this game.

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Sunday, January 26, 2025 4:12 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

We never came around to any. Nobody seemed interested in it.

Are you?

It might pull me back into paying attention again. Otherwise the topic has become pretty boring to me now because it already told me what it needed to tell me.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Thursday, January 30, 2025 12:12 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

One Month almost over....Wolf Man 28 $ million worldwide, The Last Showgirl $4 million Domestic

Ruskie have their version of Wizard of Oz, The Wizard of the Emerald City, Central Partnership a Russian film distribution and production company founded in 1995, distributor was acquired by Russian gas company Gazprom
Dog Toto renamed as Totoshka

there is a horror hated by critics and cinema fans, Presence

an overseas Brazil film about a family in a 1970s dictatorship, Ainda Estou Aqui

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Thursday, January 30, 2025 12:34 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Ruskie have their version of Wizard of Oz, The Wizard of the Emerald City, Central Partnership a Russian film distribution and production company founded in 1995, distributor was acquired by Russian gas company Gazprom
Dog Toto renamed as Totoshka

It's gotta be better than Turkish Spider-Man, right?

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Friday, January 31, 2025 6:01 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

I think there was also a Japanese power rangers mecha ninja costume one, somewhat better than Turksploitation film.

even had theme tunes

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Friday, January 31, 2025 11:20 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Can't be too mad at them.

We basically stole their Gundam stuff and made an industry out of it with Transformers, Go-Bots and MASK.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Saturday, February 1, 2025 11:49 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

China makes money and people walk out

$400 Million in China Alone: Nezha 2’s Box Office Prediction Is Big Enough to Make Disney and Warner Bros Jealous

https://fandomwire.com/400-million-in-china-alone-nezha-2s-box-office-
prediction-is-big-enough-to-make-disney-and-warner-bros-jealous/

worse than Joker-2?

Mexican moviegoers are asking for a refund after watching ‘Emilia Pérez’ in theaters
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/culture/mexicans-asking-for-refund-after-w
atching-emilia-perez/

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Thursday, February 6, 2025 9:10 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

Will Forte Says Warner Bros. Shelving ‘Coyote vs. Acme’ for $30 Million Tax Write-Off Is ‘F—ing Bulls—‘ and ‘Makes My Blood Boil,’ Tells Fans Not to Forget What the Studio Did

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/will-forte-warner-bros-shelving-coy
ote-vs-acme-bullshit-1236298828/

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Friday, February 7, 2025 12:20 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Yeah...

That's one I'm really hoping gets leaked. For the exact opposite reason that I've never given up hope that the Batgirl movie gets leaked.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, February 9, 2025 5:20 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

its worse than I thought for Hollyweird

I did not think a Russian movie would also knock Hollywood out of the top ten but it did

‘Ne Zha 2’ Becomes Highest-Grossing Movie Ever In A Single Market As China Box Office Haul Overtakes ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ Domestic Record
https://deadline.com/2025/02/ne-zha-2-box-office-china-1236281764/

Interstellar Takes A Fantastic Start In India, Earns 83% Of Its Original Opening Day Collection
https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/interstellar-re-release-box-office-d
ay-1-takes-a-fantastic-start-earns-83-of-its-original-opening-day-collection/

1 Ne Zha 2
2 Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
3 Dog Man
4 One of Them Days

then at Fifth Place some Russian movie

China has made most of those earnings at home, 911,000,000 in its own domestic market...it should have huge money when its international release comes in

One of Them Days is an American buddy comedy, Black Female Feminist films? is also mostly its own domestic US market... two friends who must scramble to find rent money after their boyfriends buy weed, booze, gamble, not rent as the boyfriend blows through it, positive reviews from Hollywood magazine critics, the movie stars two pop hiphop music singers?

the Russian movie is a remake of some Wizard of Oz thing, The Wizard of the Emerald City 2024

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Monday, February 10, 2025 9:08 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

Yeah this one is making money, huge money...I was think March but who knows with all the delays, strikes, fires etc but then May its Disney / Marvel knocking those Chinese movies down and claiming the top spot

'Thunderbolts'

ok...not A-Listers like Ironman, Captain America etc but Sebastian Stan, Florence Pugh all of the characters already established

'the Sentry' an evil Superman type character

less gore so kid friendly R rating while mass murdering people, I expect a lot of Marvel characters to die...big drama

the China market is back with a bang and here to stay ...Chinese movie currently projecting $1.64 Billion

to put this number in perspective its up there with the biggest movies of all time on its domestic market along, Inside Out 2 was 1.6 Billion, 1998 Armageddon was over half a Billion or 500 Million that is $550,000,000 + , Independence Day or ID4 was over 800 Mil or $800,000,000 + plus, then Japan anime hit during Covid Demon Slayer Mugen Train $507,120,000 + then Spider-Man No Way Home was 1.9 Billion Globally, Barbie was 1.4 Billion...Worldwide!
the China movie even if it only sells 100 bucks over seas on some remote island they have already won

China: Ne Zha 2 rakes in $1bn in days and stirs national pride
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgm0w90vnxo

‘Ne Zha 2’ At $1.1B In China Through Sunday, Already No. 7 Animated Movie Ever WW; ‘Mufasa’ Tops $671M Global, ‘Paddington In Peru’ Crosses $100M Overseas – International Box Office
https://deadline.com/2025/02/ne-zha-2-china-mufasa-global-internationa
l-box-office-1236283319/

China Box Office: ‘Ne Zha 2’ Crosses $1.1 Billion as Market Surges Past $2 Billion in 2025
https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/china-box-office-ne-zha-2-1-b
illion-1236302317/

Korea Box Office: ‘Hitman 2’ Leads Again as ‘Nocturnal’ Debuts in Third Place
https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/korea-box-office-hitman-2-noc
turnal-1236302336/

Captain America Brave New World 2025 will it make money?

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Captain-America-Brave-New-World-(2025)/Dog-Man-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

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Monday, February 10, 2025 1:52 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Wow!

11 days in the Chinese Box office: $1,046,643,285

Take a look at the top 2025 list...

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/cu
mulative/released-in-2025

#2 is Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, which is sitting just over $50 Million as we speak.

Good luck, Hollywood. You'll need it!

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Wednesday, February 19, 2025 2:52 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

Captain America Brave New World seems like it can go anywhere between 250 million and 350 domestic,
but its not steady, unpredictable

DC Warner Bros also stumbles

So where is Hollyweird culture and profits now?

New Captain America could still do well, however it has a bad rotten tomatoes score, it has started to curve down a little but not as bad as Den of Thieves 2 Pantera or the Robie Williams film that woeful Failure to Launch at all

Movie Comparison: Captain America: Brave New World (2025) vs. Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018) vs. Barbie (2023)

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Captain
-America-Brave-New-World-(2025)/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp/Barbie-(2023)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

a low end could send it in the direction of Aquaman, Logan, Antman and the Wasp numbers...kits getting bad world of mouth, some overall bad feedback, its not bad but its not great either

Marvel Cinematic Universe: Phase Five continues its stumbles although the violent toilet humor and gore of Deadpool & Wolverine was a hit with fans.

so if its moving in the direction of 250 million and 350 domestic...how does it do overseas? I'm guessing its not likeJurassic Parks sequels, Spider-Man, Avatar, Titanic...everyone around the world liked Spider-Man, Dinosaurs and the Titanic story. I think its overseas appeal will have limits but it won't be as poorly received as other poor overseas for example 'Twisters'

it is impossible for it to fail as bad as Kraven, Green Lantern and other flops

Disney Marvel managed to fudge the numbers to give it a 100 Million opening
so with rumors of reshoots of New Captain America
I wonder what the true budget is

got a feeling Thudnerbolts makes money, Sean Penn Executive Produced Thriller 'Words of War' s releasing at the same weekend I think...for now, notwithstanding new Hollywood deleays

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Thursday, February 20, 2025 12:56 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

I'm wondering if there's some shenanigans with those Brave New World numbers.

Isn't it the lowest critically rated MCU movie on RT by critics? It got a B- Cinemascore, which for sure is the lowest MCU Cinemascore.

Who's going to see this where it's grossing over $6.5 Million on a Tuesday in the middle of winter? That's about the number I expected to see it make on Friday night.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Thursday, February 20, 2025 10:38 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Who's going to see this where it's grossing over $6.5 Million on a Tuesday in the middle of winter? That's about the number I expected to see it make on Friday night.

Well... it was cheap seat Tuesday.

Wednesday's numbers were more along the lines of what I expected to see, although still higher than I thought they would be by now at $3,419,116

For comparison's sake, the last Captain America movie was Civil War back in 2016.

It grossed $13,761,120 on the first Cheap Seat Tuesday and $8,976,371 on its first Wednesday.

With inflation, that would be $18.214 Million and $11.881 Million, or around $10 to $11 Million more than Brave New World.

It did not see a day below $3.5 Million until day 18, vs. Brave New World's Day 6.

Civil War saw a staggering 74% drop from the first Friday to the second, although it wasn't as bad as that when you remove the Thursday night preview numbers. Even with that drop it still grossed over $19 Million on the 2nd Friday. If we're already under $3.5 Million I don't see it getting much more than $10 to $12 Million on Friday night.

If the steam has already run out, it could be worse than that. I don't see it being much better though.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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