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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Although a lot of people would be relieved if it drops to 22,623 before rebounding.


Perhaps I should point out, here in the moment: these are the days of making the largest gains in funds. Buying at a discount of 6% can get an easy gain on bounce back, in a matter of days instead of the 55 days it recently took to scale this mountain of stock value.
And if it can drop to 22,623 then the rebound can only be reasonably expected to be 5% to 10% of the all-time high, so buying at the end of Monday could still result in a loss.
But regardless, whenever the market hits the best bargain price, that is when the common trader has the greatest opportunity to grow their funds. Although this volatility is just noise, the potential for growth is far greater than days of a couple hundred point gains.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Alright, so let's take a moment to explore the scenario if the Libtard view actually wasn't a delusion.

Their premise is that the real actual value of the Market is represented by Dow 15,000.
So then 26,616 is an actual overevaluation of 11,616 - or 177% of the true value. That may well be a historical record.
So if Dow goes no higher than that during this cycle, then a drop to 22,623 will signal onset of a Bear Market cycle. The rebound will go to about 23,954 - 25,285 range and then drop. A Bear Market drop always bottoms far below the true value of a stock, so the Dow would at this point bottom out around 8,000 - 12,000. The would represent a drop of 55% - 70%. Such a large drop gives investors plenty of time or range to recognize the drop and exit their stocks, before the bottom price is available to buy back in for massive gains - doubling or tripling your fund value. Unless the Libtard duplicates 2008 and keeps all their money in the Market until they've lost 60% of their life savings. So what are the Libtards panicking about? Their scenario provides the best possible outcome for their funds!

By comparison OTOH, if the Libtards are delusional and the Stock Market is the Real World, then a couple extreme possibilities can be presented.
One is that, for no reason, the current high of 26,616 remains the peak of this cycle. The drop to trigger remains the same as above, as well as the rebound range. But then the bottom would be more like 17,740 (67%) or we could hope for 13,300 (50%). The discount price for buying back in would not be as big of a bargain, plus the time of range of drop would be more brief, so exiting the fund would be more time critical, allowing for less dilly-dallying. And then the recovery gains would only be 30 - 50%.
The other possibility would be that the explanation for Obamanomics which I posted earlier in this thread are correct. The Market will continue to climb, for up to 8 years, before moving to Bear Market.
By that time most folk would have forgotten about Libtard delusional theories.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed today at 23,533. A drop of 1.7% today. This is 11.6% off the Record All-Time High. Hard to beat a discount price like this to buy in at. Buffet must be buying like crazy about now.
The Dow closed at 23,860 on 8 February.
Dow closed at 23,539 on 4 November 2017.
Dow closed at 23,516 on 3 November 2017.

Today Trump signed the Cramnibus Spendaholic bill, largest spending bill in history, to last until September if this year, 6 months from now.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Although a lot of people would be relieved if it drops to 22,623 before rebounding.


Perhaps I should point out, here in the moment: these are the days of making the largest gains in funds. Buying at a discount of 6% can get an easy gain on bounce back, in a matter of days instead of the 55 days it recently took to scale this mountain of stock value.
And if it can drop to 22,623 then the rebound can only be reasonably expected to be 5% to 10% of the all-time high, so buying at the end of Monday could still result in a loss.
But regardless, whenever the market hits the best bargain price, that is when the common trader has the greatest opportunity to grow their funds. Although this volatility is just noise, the potential for growth is far greater than days of a couple hundred point gains.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed today at 25,598. S&P 500 and NASDAQ lost a greater percent today.

Yesterday marked 19 days in a row over 26K, which is the most in history. Yesterday's close was at 26,430.


The Dow peak Close on 3 October was 26,828. So now it is 4.6% off this High.

The S&P 500 peak Close to date was 2,930.

The NASDAQ peak Close to date was 8,109 on 31 August.

If you are wondering if you can panic, we will know Bear Market is coming when the Dow drops 15% from it's All-Time High. That would be 22,804 Dow. That would actually be the most profitable scenario for Market Timers.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Do you know what you plan to look for? I recently went through it with some people and was surprised how easily snookered some were.

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You'll have to be a bit more specific with that question because I don't know exactly what you're asking me.


Here's what I do know.

I'll get a 100% return on the first 5% I put in there beginning in November. This match is not vested until I work with the company for 3 more years after that. It's also not retroactive, so any additional money I put in this year will not be matched and it will only be on the first 5% going forward.

I have to pay SSI/MC on every dollar I make and nothing gets shielded from that.

Limits to how much you can put into a 401k in a year are nearly $3,000 more than I will make this year.

Anything over $12k will be taxed federally at 10%. Everything over $1k will be taxed at 4.8% for state and local. If I were to put everything over $12k in there from now until the end of the year, I'm looking at a tax savings of roughly $450.


My company match would only be a maximum of around $90 from when I'm eligible until the end of the year, and added with the tax savings if I put the rest of my money into the 401k would be about $540 earned.



The EIC won't be a thing for me this year. I was looking to see how much I could gain by putting the rest of my cash into the 401k for the year, but the EIC has a limit on both your taxable wages and your AGI, and it will be compared to whichever is higher, so even putting money away will still only net me a couple bucks here if anything at all.




If you have any suggestions, I'm more than happy to hear them.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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I have been trying to get back to this for 2 weeks, and I am sorry for the delay. I was not ignoring of avoiding it, but would have been timed better a couple days earlier.

I will try to get this all in one post.


You will need to look for 2 kinds of funds. Hopefully you can find 2-4 candidates for each of the 2 kinds. One family of funds I looked at for friends had been reduced to about 170 funds (from 450ish), and I found 2 of one kind and 4 of the other. IIRC none of those was in the category they should have been in.

Sorry, but you will actually need to evaluate each one, I can almost guarantee just reading the prospectus and summary or rating will not work. I have found some of the very best funds in the "Moderate" and also "low" risk categories. One rule of thumb (which you need to ignore) is that the most aggressive Growth is by definition more volatile and risky. The reverse is not true. Being risky does not guarantee high growth. Some funds just lose money all the time, and only being Classified as aggressive do they seem like the risk is worth it, but it is not, there is no correlation. Once you look at they like I explain, you will find the prospectus humorous on many.

You are looking to take advantage of a Bear Market cycle. The last one was in 2008, following a peak in October 2007 and ending the slide in March 2009. The last before that was 2001, following a peak in 1st Quarter 2000, then starting Bear around April 2001, and already at least 17% down before 9/11.
You need to know how well a fund is likely to, or you hope it will, perform in the next Bear Market cycle.
Many people will tell you that what your stated goal is, IS NOT POSSIBLE. It is called Market Timing, and today's Financially Illiterate Fiscal Professionals have been spoon-fed the mantra that Market Timing does not exist, does not work, will not ever work, no matter how many savvy Market Timers implement it each time successfully.
Standard Disclaimer is past performance is not indicative of future results. Which is technically and legally correct. But you and I both know that THERE WILL BE PROFITABLE FUNDS during that time. So, do you throw your hat on the fund which failed the last 2 times to perform predictably? Or rather choose a fund which at least did well before, with no guarantee that it will absolutely repeat the performance? If you look at 5 different funds which did well during the last 2 Bears, might it be reasonable to imagine that at least 3-4 of them will do the same again? Even if you cannot predict which one will not do as well, that still seems like a decent wager.
The point here is: if your candidate fund did not exist in 2007, you cannot reasonably consider it for your use. You need to evaluate a fund's performance during an actual Bear Market. Looking at how any fund has performed in 9 1/2 years of no Bear is not going to expose the information you need.
So the only time period you are really looking at for your evaluation is 2007-2009, and hopefully 2001 as well (that time frame is harder to find, many funds have ended, and others started in the past 17 years).
So, discard any candidate which was not around in 2007, no matter how well it performed in the past 9 years.

Now here is a very important detail. You should reread this until you are certain you get it - I couldn't believe how hard this is for so many to understand.
When you look at the graphs of performance, they will all look the same.
If you look at 5 different funds all starting in 2006, looking at the graphs right next to each other, they will all look the same. The same dips there, the same peaks here. That year they all did the same, the other year they all did the different thing the same. Only minor differences in the graphs, the bumps and dips.
But they are not the same, and you absolutely must understand the difference.
If one fund spanned a 5% range during the past 12 years, the graph makers will enlarge/expand the vertical scale until the graph fills the size of the graph window. If another fund spanned an 80% range during the past 12 years, the graph makers will compress the vertical scale until it fits in the size of the graph window. So these 2 extremely unrelated performances will look the same on a standard graph.
You MUST check the scaling. Do the division, write down the figures. If a fund share dropped $4 during 2007-2009, then if it's 2007 value was $80 it dropped 5%. But if it's 2007 value was $5 then that same $4 drop represents an 80% drop. You must get this info to properly compare, and you are dreaming if you think they'll do this for you - they want you to give them money, not find out any truth about them.
Reread that until you are sure you got it. Everybody tells me they got it, but soon I see they did not get it.

I hope this is making sense.

OK, the 2 types of performance you are searching for. One is the funds which hardly dropped in value during the Bear Market. The other is the funds which plummeted deeply during the Bear Market.

Reminder: 2007 Dow peaked at 14,000 and 9 March 2009 was under 6,000 - a drop of something like 55% from prior peak value. 2000 Dow peaked at just under 12,000 and bottomed out around 7,300 - about 44% drop IIRC.

The first fund that you hope to use. A perfect example is a fund which cannot lose money, even in Bear Market. You won't find one like that, sorry. But if you look at 2008 and the average fund dropped more than 50% but the fund you are evaluating dropped only 1%, then that would be preferable, right? Sorry, you won't find that either. But you should be able to find a few which dropped less than 20% while the broader Market lost over 50%. Anything with less than 20% loss in 2008, keep in your pile of candidates until you've gone through them all, and can get picky and winnow down. I've found some that dropped 5-10% in 2008, and hopefully you will too. Unfortunately, if your workforce is Unionized, these are the funds the Unions get rid of, to ensure the worker gets screwed.
Keep in your pile the 3 or 4 best funds of this type, if they dropped 20% or less. The last 2 times I searched for friends, only found 1 or 2 each time.

The 2nd kind of fund you are searching for.
Big drop in value, percentage wise. I have found some that dropped over 80% in 2008. You want to identify these with the worst drops, which are still around today (because they rebounded). Even better if you can identify 2 subgroups of this type. One had a steep, surgical looking cut, and fast rebound/recovery. The other had a recovery which was more gradual.
For the purposes of diversification (not putting ALL your eggs in one basket), try to corral 4-6 of these.

You want to have all this figured out and planned BEFORE you need to know it, and have your plan in mind, and give it time to settle in your mind, so you are comfy with the whole works.

Now, how to use them.
The 1st type, doesn't lose a lot in deep Bear Market, you put your money in now. I think you get this, but ask if you need more information. For diversification, spread your money around in more than one of these - like the most money in the fund which lost the least, but a decent chunk in other funds that only dropped 10-20% when most funds dropped 50%. Remember, we cannot predict what will happen with certainty, so don't get stuck with ALL your money in a fund which suddenly doesn't behave like you were hoping it would.

The Deep droppers. When you look at these, you will see that they rebounded, most did so completely, even if it took years. This is standard behavior. Once a stock or fund price gets to a high or peak value, everybody understands it will again return there, unless it is not diversified. Mutual funds have many different companies which are invested in, so unless all of those companies go out of business, the fund will recover (unless managed badly, which you should have discovered when looking at 2007 and 2001 on their graphs).
So when Bear Market hits, and the prices drop but yours from the 1st type doesn't AS MUCH, the simple thing is to wait for the bottom, and transfer your money from those funds into the deep droppers, at their most-discounted prices.

Or, you can do it in 2 stages.
Let us use a round number, for illustration purposes. You have 100,000 in funds, and are not adding or removing any from your Tax-deferred fund Family.
In the example I just gave, your starting 100K drops to about 85K, and you move to funds which dropped about 66%. When those funds recover to prior values, your 85K will have become $255,000.

In a 2-stage approach, your starting 100K is still down to 85K. This is done. No way to avoid it, without a Zero-Loss type of fund. But you are thankful you only lost 15K instead of the 50K that everybody else did.
So you noticed some deep droppers which were steep climbers on the rebound, and you move your 85K into a few of them, when their values are about 75% down (25% of their prior peak value). Within a few months, or more, these funds have done a steep climb, not all of the way, but to 75% of their prior value, before their steepness shallows out. We are not afraid they won't return to their prior value, but the steep portion is what we were using them for. So the 85K is now at $255,000 as we transfer money to different funds.
These 2nd stage funds have a slower or delayed recovery timeline. So let's say they dropped about 60% to around 40% of their prior peak value. And now they have gradually rebounded to about 50%. But you were in the other steep climber funds. Now you buy in at 50% with your $255,000. In the next year or more to come, that 50% value will return to its prior peak value (100%), and your money will be $510,000 at that point.
So you will have multiplied your funds by 5 if that was your plan and you executed it.

Does all of that make sense?
Most of these events stretch over weeks and months at least, so it's not like you need to precisely transfer on a specific day, or track the Market Index funds every day. I used to check about once per month. So in 2001 I saw that the Bear trigger had happened in April, but I didn't notice until May. Shouldn't be a big deal.


Also, most funds have a symbol, or abbreviation, that you can use to track the value. Maybe check it every day for 10 days, or then check once a week for a month, just to get familiar. Then only whenever you are curious.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed today at 25,115. After 5 trading days closing below 25K.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Last week I looked at the BLS Release Calendar and the Jobs Report was scheduled for next week.

But now it is scheduled for Friday, 2 November.

Might help remind folks who to vote for.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Next week is the Election. It was brought to my attention, but I have not confirmed yet, that the Stock Markets rise on the Wednesday after a Mid-term Election without apparent regard for which Party wins. So if you are looking for a stable trend to make money on, then confirm if this is true. Then you would buy in to a growth fund on Friday, Monday, Tuesday, and sell at CoB Wednesday.

This simple practice would be called Market Timing, which newly minted mush head Fiscal Experts say Does Not Exist, has Never Existed, has Never Worked, despite decades of success.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Next week is the Election. It was brought to my attention, but I have not confirmed yet, that the Stock Markets rise on the Wednesday after a Mid-term Election without apparent regard for which Party wins. So if you are looking for a stable trend to make money on, then confirm if this is true. Then you would buy in to a growth fund on Friday, Monday, Tuesday, and sell at CoB Wednesday.

This simple practice would be called Market Timing, which newly minted mush head Fiscal Experts say Does Not Exist, has Never Existed, has Never Worked, despite decades of success.

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I looked at the funds I use in my Tax-Deferred account. For 2014, 2010, 2006 they all gained on the day after. Prior to 2003 the data is not available online.

In 06 there was 0.6%, 0.1%. In 10 there was 0.5%, 1.0%. And 14 was 0.2%, 0.7%.
No losses. So I'll be making a transfer tonight.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Next week is the Election. It was brought to my attention, but I have not confirmed yet, that the Stock Markets rise on the Wednesday after a Mid-term Election without apparent regard for which Party wins. So if you are looking for a stable trend to make money on, then confirm if this is true. Then you would buy in to a growth fund on Friday, Monday, Tuesday, and sell at CoB Wednesday.

This simple practice would be called Market Timing, which newly minted mush head Fiscal Experts say Does Not Exist, has Never Existed, has Never Worked, despite decades of success.

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I looked at the funds I use in my Tax-Deferred account. For 2014, 2010, 2006 they all gained on the day after. Prior to 2003 the data is not available online.

In 06 there was 0.6%, 0.1%. In 10 there was 0.5%, 1.0%. And 14 was 0.2%, 0.7%.
No losses. So I'll be making a transfer tonight.

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Dow closed Monday at 25,461.
On Tuesday at 25,635. All 3 major Indices gained more than 0.6% for the day.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Dow closed today at 26,180. All 3 major indices gained over 2.1% today.

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Originally posted by second:
Mergers and acquisitions don’t create new productive assets. They are a long-run forecast by companies that market share is better bought than obtained through growth or innovation.

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Originally posted by second:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed today at 26,180. All 3 major indices gained over 2.1% today.

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Dow opened today at 24,618. Dow started at 24,824 on Jan 2, 2018. I'm not seeing a Trump bump in 2018. Has he lost his magic touch to make the market increase? Or did he have no magic to begin with despite his bragging about himself?

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Originally posted by JO753:
Earth to JSF: the Republicanz are the bad guyz. AND they are the wunz doing the bankrupting.

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Creating additional investor concern on Tuesday was an inverted yield curve in Treasury bonds — where the three-year yield has moved above the five-year yield — a phenomenon that preceded all three of the last recessions.

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Originally posted by JO753:
Looks like lots uv investorz think its bad. I dont no - coud be good, coud be bad. All I no iz that it duznt directly affect me.

Herez sumthing stokholdrz shoud worry about:

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Creating additional investor concern on Tuesday was an inverted yield curve in Treasury bonds — where the three-year yield has moved above the five-year yield — a phenomenon that preceded all three of the last recessions.

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All hail Trump the business genius. He'll fix everything.

T

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Next week is the Election. It was brought to my attention, but I have not confirmed yet, that the Stock Markets rise on the Wednesday after a Mid-term Election without apparent regard for which Party wins. So if you are looking for a stable trend to make money on, then confirm if this is true. Then you would buy in to a growth fund on Friday, Monday, Tuesday, and sell at CoB Wednesday.

This simple practice would be called Market Timing, which newly minted mush head Fiscal Experts say Does Not Exist, has Never Existed, has Never Worked, despite decades of success.

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I looked at the funds I use in my Tax-Deferred account. For 2014, 2010, 2006 they all gained on the day after. Prior to 2003 the data is not available online.

In 06 there was 0.6%, 0.1%. In 10 there was 0.5%, 1.0%. And 14 was 0.2%, 0.7%.
No losses. So I'll be making a transfer tonight.

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Dow closed Monday at 25,461.
On Tuesday at 25,635. All 3 major Indices gained more than 0.6% for the day.

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Dow closed today at 26,180. All 3 major indices gained over 2.1% today.

Congratulations to all who took my advice and accepted some gains today. Another example of Market Timing. Remember, Market Timing does not exist, has never existed, and does not work, no matter how much money you made today off of the practice. (Yes, that was sarcasm)

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Nobody gives a shit what the DOW is doing.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by JO753:
If only you coud no wich way its going befor it duz! Every litl dip and spike woud be money in your pocket!

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Originally posted by second:
What factors explain the difficulty we have faced in reducing the poverty rate?

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Originally posted by JO753:

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Originally posted by second:
What factors explain the difficulty we have faced in reducing the poverty rate?

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Greed.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
40 million Americans live below the poverty level.

42% of Americans make less than $25,000 per year.

73% of Americans make less than $50,000 per year.

Nobody gives a shit what the DOW is doing.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
40 million Americans live below the poverty level.


Nobody gives a shit what the DOW is doing.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
40 million Americans live below the poverty level.


Nobody gives a shit what the DOW is doing.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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So you decided to not accept any Matching Contributions to a 401k?
Of do you think your, and every other American in a 401k, were holding currency in bitcoin?

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