The predictions thread by kpo

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
KPO, at one time your thread served a useful function, but you're quoting posts of mine that aren't even predictions. That's just biased and mean-spirited.

I am certainly posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong, and that time will show are wrong. That for me IS the function of this thread. But if there is any quote of yours that you feel has been taken out of context please expand on and clarify it.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Sunday, February 22, 2015 12:43 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

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I am certainly posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong

There are endless spaces in OTHER threads to debate the general correctness of anyone's particular ideas. I'm going to start posting into this thread every single idea of yours that I think is "wrong".

This used to be a PREDICTIONS thread.

Glad to see you screwed up your own (at one time) originally neat idea with your own pettiness and hatred! You just outed yourself as a small-minded bigot- but I knew that anyway.

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Sunday, February 22, 2015 1:19 PM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

What I said was:

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posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong, and that time will show are wrong.

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I'm going to start posting into this thread every single idea of yours that I think is "wrong".

So long as it's something that will be proved right or wrong in time, please do!

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Monday, February 23, 2015 10:43 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Originally posted by THGRRI: Thursday, August 14, 2014 7:37 PM
Putin is creating a situation that is very short term. No one is going to want to invest in a country that is so unpredictable. Children born today will see the oil fields of Russia start drying up before they hit mid-life. Russia manufactures very little except hackers. They are fast retreating back into a criminal state like North Korea. To bad because a rouge state such as theirs has a negative effect on the world.

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Monday, February 23, 2015 11:05 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
What I said was:
posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong, and that time will show are wrong. - KPO

I'm going to start posting into this thread every single idea of yours that I think is "wrong".-SIGNY
So long as it's something that will be proved right or wrong in time, please do!-KPO

But it's not that the quotes of mine that you posted didn't begin with "I predict", they didn't even have to do with the future. They were about things that were happening at the moment, or had happened in the recent past, and they were described by other people- heck, they weren't even mine!

With your logic, ANY quote or post about some current or recent event could be xfered here because, yanno, time will tell whether Russia really invaded Ukraine on Aug 14 2014, or whether 2014 really WAS the hottest year, or whether the Hennessey Venom supercar really broke the landspeed record at 270+mph or did it fall a shade short.

The most excellent thing about predictions - the thing that sets them apart from discussions/interpretations/noodlings/ opinions on events - is their ability to demonstrate whether the person's mental model is robust enough to be projected on events that haven't even happened yet

That's a powerful tool, and necessary for any sort of scientific understanding of the world. People can noodle on and discuss and interpret until the cows come home, but until someone says When I drop these two balls of different weights at the same time they will land at the same time ... and the prediction turns out to be true ... ONLY THEN can you have some confidence that the person has a fundamental grasp of processes that are driving events.

This thread should be preserved for predictions ... no matter how phrased, but actual predictions ... that can be traced back to specific posters (not a post that begins "Rumors say that....") and their understanding of current events which leads them to make predictions. All of the other threads are already devoted to the rightness and wrongness of various opinions.

I think you're just sick of me being right about Ukraine, and are trying to dilute my actual predictions with chaff and fluff that isn't even mine, so that you can prove me "wrong".

And I think you're doing this with other people too. This thread needs a more objective moderator.

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Monday, February 23, 2015 12:31 PM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
This thread should be preserved for predictions ... no matter how phrased, but actual predictions ... that can be traced back to specific posters (not a post that begins "Rumors say that....")

I disagree. All predictions come with probabilities attached, and those probabilities are rarely 100% - they don't even have to be more than 50%. For example I think it's possible that in the next couple of years we could see a major air disaster around the airspace of a NATO country involving a civilian airliner and a Russian military aircraft with its transponder turned off. I would put that prediction at maybe 30% - in other words I think it probably WON'T happen, but still a 30% chance of a major air disaster is significant and worth mentioning.

When you say things like "There are rumours that X..." or "I'm not sure myself but some are saying that Y..." you are effectively giving predictions with low probabilities. You are not confident that they will happen, and maybe you think that they most likely won't, but YOU obviously think there's a chance that they could be right otherwise you wouldn't be mentioning them.

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I think you're just sick of me being right about Ukraine,

Lol, that's definitely not it.

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posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong, and that time will show are wrong. - KPO

I should adjust that. It's not about me being certain that your predictions are wrong, but being a lot more doubtful of them than you. So your prediction that Ukraine's goverment could be toppled by far right groups seems to be in the 'it could happen but most likely won't' range, i.e. a probability of something like 10-40% (judging by the wording in your post, you can correct me if I'm wrong). I on the other hand am fairly confident that this won't happen, so my confidence in this prediction is about 1%. We have a large discrepancy between our probability estimates. If in the next few years time Ukraine has a far right revolution it will be a big dent to the validity of my worldview, because it's something that I thought had almost no chance of happening. And it will be a victory for your worldview. If on the other hand Ukraine has no far right revolution, and doesn't even come close to one, that will seem to vindicate my worldview.

So no, predictions don't have to be confident - they just have to be confident compared to other people's. The predictions I dislike and want to ban from this thread are the predictions that are really obvious, that anyone could have made, like "The IMF will implement an austerity plan in Ukraine." Well, duh.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Wednesday, February 25, 2015 9:55 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

KPO, nearly every single sentence that you posted is wrong, quite often in multiple ways. All you're doing is justifying your bias (again). But since you're willing to bend your ethics and adjust your "evidence", I guess it's not surprising that you'd twist a few definitions and pervert the scientific method.

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Wednesday, February 25, 2015 9:24 PM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

To make Signy happy, here's one from Kiki, that I missed:

Kiki (August 30th 2014) - "But I think Russia has reached the point where it's as ready as it can be to withstand full-on economic (and perhaps other) warfare. And after months of genuine attempts at negotiations it's as clear as it can possibly be that nothing Russia does, or refrains from doing, or says, or offers or proves, is going to change the actions of the Washington-London financialists. So, rather than interpret this as a snit-fit, perhaps it's a considered option. The west has made negotiations fruitless, and Russia can now afford to stop trying."

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Thursday, February 26, 2015 9:43 AM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Another Signy set of predictions, from September:

Signy - "But, as I said, just as autopsies and an investigative report of the Odessa Trades Union killings will never come out, an investigation of the sniper shooting will never be published either, and there's serious question about results of the MH17 investigation ever seeing the light of day as well - most of the principal investigating parties- Nederlands, Ukraine, Australia, Belgium signed a “Non-disclosure Agreement”."

You've done a lot of boasting about the 'accuracy' of your Ukraine predictions Signy, and that's why I've made an effort to start recording them. My guess is people remember the predictions they got right, but forget the ones they got wrong. Good luck with the MH17 one...

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Thursday, February 26, 2015 11:25 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
This thread should be preserved for predictions ... no matter how phrased, but actual predictions ... that can be traced back to specific posters (not a post that begins "Rumors say that....")-SIGNY

I disagree. All predictions come with probabilities attached

No, they don't. Neither Newton's nor Euler's nor Einstein's equations had probabilities attached. Neither did Darwin's theory of evolution. In fact, neither do the predictions on this board. I can't think of a single prediction that anyone has made here with probabilities attached.

Quote:
and those probabilities are rarely 100% - they don't even have to be more than 50%. For example I think it's possible that in the next couple of years we could see a major air disaster around the airspace of a NATO country involving a civilian airliner and a Russian military aircraft with its transponder turned off. I would put that prediction at maybe 30% - in other words I think it probably WON'T happen, but still a 30% chance of a major air disaster is significant and worth mentioning.

When you say things like "There are rumours that X..." or "I'm not sure myself but some are saying that Y..." you are effectively giving predictions with low probabilities. You are not confident that they will happen, and maybe you think that they most likely won't, but YOU obviously think there's a chance that they could be right otherwise you wouldn't be mentioning them.

When someone "predicts" an event with a low probability .... thermodynamics says that there is a chance, albeit a very low one, that a tea kettle will spontaneously boil ... they're not predicting that it WILL happen, and if the chances are less than 50% that it will happen, they are predicting the inverse: that it likely WON'T happen. Only KPO could get that backwards in order to "make a point".

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I think you're just sick of me being right about Ukraine- SIGNY
Lol, that's definitely not it.-KPO

But of course, you haven't been able to demonstrate that my predictions are wrong, either. After all, didn't I predict that Ukraine would fall apart economically, socially and politically, and that the government in Kiev would resort to heavy-handed measures?

Quote:
posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong, and that time will show are wrong. - KPO
I should adjust that. It's not about me being certain that your predictions are wrong, but being a lot more doubtful of them than you. So your prediction that Ukraine's goverment could be toppled by far right groups seems to be in the 'it could happen but most likely won't' range, i.e. a probability of something like 10-40% (judging by the wording in your post, you can correct me if I'm wrong). I on the other hand am fairly confident that this won't happen, so my confidence in this prediction is about 1%. We have a large discrepancy between our probability estimates. If in the next few years time Ukraine has a far right revolution it will be a big dent to the validity of my worldview, because it's something that I thought had almost no chance of happening. And it will be a victory for your worldview. If on the other hand Ukraine has no far right revolution, and doesn't even come close to one, that will seem to vindicate my worldview.

It already has had one far-right revolution; after all, those were the violent spearhead of the Maidan. You just didn't recognize ti for what it was.

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So no, predictions don't have to be confident - they just have to be confident compared to other people's.

You're attaching "confidence-meters" to predictions? That's not science, nor is it prediction.

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The predictions I dislike and want to ban from this thread are the predictions that are really obvious, that anyone could have made, like "The IMF will implement an austerity plan in Ukraine." Well, duh.

If it was so obvious, why didn't you predict it? And furthermore, why didn't you understand the implications of it?

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Friday, February 27, 2015 8:45 AM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
No, they don't. Neither Newton's nor Euler's nor Einstein's equations had probabilities attached.

These are not predictions though, these are mathematical laws of the universe. You can use them to *make* predictions, of course, and in many cases these predictions will be 100% certain - e.g. dropping an apple and it falling. You see the '100%' and the word 'certain' in that sentence? That describes probability, dearie.

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I can't think of a single prediction that anyone has made here with probabilities attached.

So when I say "I think it's possible that in the next couple of years we could see a major air disaster..." you don't see any probability there? This was the very example I used to illustrate my point, so if you can't see probability or confidence here, then I'm not surprised you don't see it anywhere else.

A question for you. Four statements:

1. "I am absolutely convinced that 2012 will be the year of the Mayan Apocalypse and the world will end."
2. "It's not definite but I think there's a good chance we will see the end of the world in 2012."

3. "I've heard a lot about the Mayan Apocalypse, and I think it probably won't happen, but you never know."
4. "There is no chance that there will be a Mayan Apocalypse in 2012.

Is there any difference between 1) and 2), and between 3) and 4)? Are the people making these predictions just as crazy or level headed as each other?

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if the chances are less than 50% that it will happen, they are predicting the inverse: that it likely WON'T happen. Only KPO could get that backwards in order to "make a point".

Well you've understood one thing, at least. Why you're repeating my own point back to me and telling me I said the opposite, I'm not sure.

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But of course, you haven't been able to demonstrate that my predictions are wrong, either. After all, didn't I predict that Ukraine would fall apart economically, socially and politically, and that the government in Kiev would resort to heavy-handed measures?

Yawn. I've taken apart your predictions once before, there's no need to do it again (although maybe I should post it to this thread). As I say, you've done so much boasting on the strength of a very mixed set of predictions, that I've taken to recording your predictions on Ukraine more closely, to see if you are really the oracle you think you are.

I guess you feel victimised because I'm quoting your low-probability/low-confidence predictions - things you think could happen but probably won't. The reason why I'm doing it is because a lot of them to me sound like statement 3) above. YOU think the Mayan apocalypse could happen, but probably won't - whereas I think it's foolish to even entertain the idea. Time may or may not vindicate our differing levels of confidence, and the worldviews they come from. The fact is, Signy, that if Kiev's government IS toppled by fascists*, YOU will remind us all how YOU said it could happen, and YOU will boast about your awesome insights into the situation that allowed you to foresee it. You will say something like, "Some of us saw that this might happen, when people like kpo doubted..." And this is all fine. But it has to work both ways. If after 5 years there isn't the slightest hint of a far-right revolution... well, you look a little bit silly for entertaining the notion. It's time to start holding the Signy worldview truly to account.

*It occurs to me that a 'fascist revolution in Ukraine' wan't the best prediction for me to use as an example and to talk about at length, as you will characterise ANY revolution in Kiev as a 'fascist' revolution - as you did for the Maidan revolution. So in a sense all you're predicting is that there will be a protest movement that leads to Poroshenko's demise... which I have to say myself is quite possible.

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You're attaching "confidence-meters" to predictions?

Yes.

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If it was so obvious, why didn't you predict it?

For the same reason I don't 'predict' that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow - and I roll my eyes at anyone who pompously does.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Friday, February 27, 2015 9:48 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

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No, they don't. Neither Newton's nor Euler's nor Einstein's equations had probabilities attached.- SIGNY
These are not predictions though, these are mathematical laws of the universe.-KPO

People often misperceive that their view of the universe IS "the universe", but in reality the universe doesn't have "laws" and it doesn't have anyone enforcing them: You won't get a speeding ticket if you manage to go faster than light.

As far at what the equations are, they ARE predictions: where are Mars and Jupiter going to be in relation to the earth in 220 days? How much energy is theoretically possible to extract from how much mass?

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You can use them to *make* predictions, of course, and in many cases these predictions will be 100% certain - e.g. dropping an apple and it falling. You see the '100%' and the word 'certain' in that sentence? That describes probability, dearie.

Actually, nothing is 100% certain, except the universe. If a small black hole goes shooting by at the time you drop an apple, it may take the apple with it.

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I can't think of a single prediction that anyone has made here with probabilities attached.-SIGNY
So when I say "I think it's possible that in the next couple of years we could see a major air disaster..." you don't see any probability there?

First of all, when you say something is "possible", it's not a prediction... it's an idea of a possibility.

It's possible that falling apple will be taken by a stray black hole.
It's possible that a tea kettle will spontaneously boil.
It's possible that Obama will stop droning Muslims before he leaves office.

Am I, any any sense, "predicting" the future? Or am I simply discussing potentialities? The difference between a prediction and an idea is that predictor thinks s/he has enough information to state what WILL happen, not what MIGHT happen. There are an uncountable number of events that MIGHT happen. Talking about them is not predicting, although it may help sharpen our knowledge so that we might make a prediction.

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This was the very example I used to illustrate my point, so if you can't see probability or confidence here, then I'm not surprised you don't see it anywhere else.-KPO

I could see it in your example, to illustrate a point, I just can't ever recall anybody else doing it spontaneously. Generally, it seems that if posters are certain enough to make an actual prediction - a statement which specifically says what will happen in the future- they don't shade their predictions with equivocation.

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A question for you. Four statements:

1. "I am absolutely convinced that 2012 will be the year of the Mayan Apocalypse and the world will end."
2. "It's not definite but I think there's a good chance we will see the end of the world in 2012."
3. "I've heard a lot about the Mayan Apocalypse, and I think it probably won't happen, but you never know."
4. "There is no chance that there will be a Mayan Apocalypse in 2012.

Is there any difference between 1) and 2), and between 3) and 4)? Are the people making these predictions just as crazy or level headed as each other?

First of all, most people making predictions don't generally shade their prediction as an "opinion", so statements #1 is mis-phrased: people who are convinced the world is going to end say "The world is going to end", not "I am absolutely convinced that..."

And you're conflating being "crazy" versus "level headed" with the question about "predictions" versus "discussion". What does being crazy or level-headed have to do with predicting?

A scientist who has an idea about something has to make a PREDICTION in order to find out whether his/her idea is correct. It can be on the order of something as small as "If I take these chemicals and react them under these conditions I will get these products" to "Light passing by the moon will be deflected by so much, according to the moon's gravity".

They don't shade their predictions ... "I think" .... "My best guess" ... "Fifty-fifty chance" ... they have to sharpen their prediction to a yes/no, so that it can be tested and potentially disproved. (Also, another feature about hypothesis testing: you can never "prove" anything, you can only disprove it.)

Some of those predictions seemed pretty damn crazy at the time. Whooda thunk that the earth's crust actually moved, that light and matter were the same thing, that species changed over time due to selection, or that a bacteria caused most ulcers?

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if the chances are less than 50% that it will happen, they are predicting the inverse: that it likely WON'T happen. Only KPO could get that backwards in order to "make a point".-SIGNY
Well you've understood one thing, at least. Why you're repeating my own point back to me and telling me I said the opposite, I'm not sure.-KPO

Because you're the one making the argument that ANY notion, no matter how half-assed and weak, is a "prediction".

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But of course, you haven't been able to demonstrate that my predictions are wrong, either. After all, didn't I predict that Ukraine would fall apart economically, socially and politically, and that the government in Kiev would resort to heavy-handed measures?- SIGNY
Yawn. I've taken apart your predictions once before, there's no need to do it again (although maybe I should post it to this thread).=KPO

Please do.

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As I say, you've done so much boasting on the strength of a very mixed set of predictions, that I've taken to recording your predictions on Ukraine more closely, to see if you are really the oracle you think you are.-KPO

No, you've taken to recording thoughts, notions, passed-along rumors, anything that you can justify (in your mind) as being a "prediction" no matter how weak and second-sourced, just to dilute my ACTUAL predictions. (The ones where I said I PREDICT.)

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I guess you feel victimised because I'm quoting your low-probability/low-confidence predictions

I'm not "feeling" victimized, I am being victimized. By you. Because you have a terrible grudge

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- things you think could happen but probably won't. The reason why I'm doing it is because a lot of them to me sound like statement 3) above. YOU think the Mayan apocalypse could happen, but probably won't - whereas I think it's foolish to even entertain the idea.

Apparently you think it foolish to entertain MANY ideas. I guess you're not an "ideas" person, otherwise you'd recognize the difference between ideas and predictions.

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Time may or may not vindicate our differing levels of confidence, and the worldviews they come from. The fact is, Signy, that if Kiev's government IS toppled by fascists*, YOU will remind us all how YOU said it could happen, and YOU will boast about your awesome insights into the situation that allowed you to foresee it. You will say something like, "Some of us saw that this might happen, when people like kpo doubted..." And this is all fine. But it has to work both ways. If after 5 years there isn't the slightest hint of a far-right revolution... well, you look a little bit silly for entertaining the notion. It's time to start holding the Signy worldview truly to account.

This is a DISCUSSION board, where ideas are brought to the table for discussion. I guess you don't know what that means. I would have liked to have gotten some feedback from you (since you claim to be following Ukraine pretty closely) on whether you though it possible or not, and why or why not. Yanno, exchange information.

But you aren't capable of discussion. TO you, everything IS war ..it's your opinion, or no opinion... and this thread is just one more example of that.

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*It occurs to me that a 'fascist revolution in Ukraine' wan't the best prediction for me to use as an example and to talk about at length, as you will characterise ANY revolution in Kiev as a 'fascist' revolution - as you did for the Maidan revolution. So in a sense all you're predicting is that there will be a protest movement that leads to Poroshenko's demise... which I have to say myself is quite possible.

The Maidan was more than a "protest movement". People were burned, beaten, and shot. There were about as many injuries and deaths on the security side as on the civilian side. I think you should got back to footage of Maidan and look at it again.

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You're attaching "confidence-meters" to predictions?-SIGNY
Yes.-KPO

Idiot

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If it was so obvious, why didn't you predict it?-SIGNY
For the same reason I don't 'predict' that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow - and I roll my eyes at anyone who pompously does.-KPO

Then why didn't you predict what followed from that? While you were busy rah-rahing about your side, you failed to notice some pretty serious underlying realities- like the nature of some of the participants and how they were appointed to internal security, the underlying realities of Ukrainian trade and budgeting, and the deep division among the citizens of Ukraine and how they envisioned their futures.

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It's not personal. It's just war.

- A good example about why you're not trustworthy.

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Friday, February 27, 2015 2:27 PM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

A very simple question for you Signy. A simple answer would be appreciated, but I won't hold my breath...

Is this a prediction:

"Russia will almost certainly need an IMF bailout in 2015."

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Monday, March 2, 2015 2:55 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

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Is this a prediction: "Russia will almost certainly need an IMF bailout in 2015." -KPO

Oh, the answer is "no".

The reason is because if the event DOESN'T happen, you can always say... well, there was a chance it wouldn't happen, that was just one of the possibilities. So what kind of "prediction" is that?

In science, you have to be definitive about your hypothesis, and if it takes the form of a prediction you have to be definitive about that too. If your prediction doesn't work out, then you have to figure out why.

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Monday, March 2, 2015 5:41 PM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

You are lumping real world predictions in with scientific hypothesis testing, which convinces me that you don't understand the point of either.

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if the event DOESN'T happen, you can always say... well, there was a chance it wouldn't happen

You need to ask yourself Signy, in the real world with all its randomness, chaos, and uncontrolled variables, is there ANYTHING of real significance - wars, future presidents, climate etc. - that you can predict with 100% certainty? I notice that when you presented your famous Ukraine predictions, you did so with the introductory sentence 'plausible future news'. The word 'plausible' is not a substitute for 'certain'. You were attaching probability to your predictions - effectively saying "These things aren't certain, but I can see them happening". So were these 'predictions' of yours predictions or not?

For my part I'm quite happy that if someone predicts something and says, "I'm confident that..." or "I think there's a good chance that..." etc., that it counts as a prediction, and belongs in this thread. Some predictions will be more confident than others, but that's why I always make sure to be faithful to the original wording - even with people who I'm trying to catch out, like you Signy.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Monday, March 2, 2015 5:51 PM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Signy on the killing of Nemtsov:

Signy - "You're right. It's probably a false flag. Just like MH17. It will be used to gin up more sanctions against Russia, or build up support for some US-sponsored "color revolution", or some combination. That, or it was a nutcase Putin supporter."

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Wednesday, March 4, 2015 6:47 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

KPO on the nature of predictions-

Anything goes, as long as I don't like it!

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Wednesday, March 4, 2015 6:55 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
You need to ask yourself Signy, in the real world with all its randomness, chaos, and uncontrolled variables, is there ANYTHING of real significance - wars, future presidents, climate etc. - that you can predict with 100% certainty?

Just because you don't know with 100% certainty what the future will bring doesn't mean that you can shade your predictions about it. AFA my predictions about Ukraine, I made them very, very specific, and I wrote them as news articles, not as guesses. It's too bad I preceded it with "plausible" because I was sure of them as I was of the 2008 collapse, and of Bush II's invasion or Iraq, which I saw as a foregone conclusion several months before the fact, when Bush was still moving the goalposts and pretending like there was anything Saddam could do to stop it. Sometimes, you just know, yanno?

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Wednesday, March 4, 2015 12:30 PM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

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AFA my predictions about Ukraine, I made them very, very specific, and I wrote them as news articles, not as guesses. It's too bad I preceded it with "plausible" because I was sure of them

Uh-huh... You were sure that Russia would send in troops to eastern Ukraine 'to protect Russian citizens'? That Russia would restrict sales of natural gas to Europe in response to Western sanctions, that Kiev would delay its national elections, that far-right Svoboda would gain control of Ukrainian internal security...? You were 'sure' about a lot of things that didn't happen Sig.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Wednesday, March 4, 2015 11:03 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

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Uh-huh... You were sure that ... that far-right Svoboda would gain control of Ukrainian internal security...?

Um, the far right HAS gained control of Ukraine's internal security. I guess you didn't notice?

Quote:
After the appointment of the deputy commander of the punitive regiment "Azov" Vadim Trojan to the position of deputy head of the Department of Internal Affairs in Kiev region, outright fascists with swastika tattoos settled in the Kiev Regional Police Department. In the photo they are in the lecture hall of the Kiev regional PD.

The picture was posted by a known Nazi and schizophrenic Artem Bonov on his Vkontakte page, along with a video, where the assembled Nazi punishers heed Patriotic poems. Regiment "Azov" has not distinguished itself in combat, but became famous for lawlessness in the occupied territories of Donbass, primarily in Mariupol. Now they are being prepared to protect the order in Kiev region.

And - Yep, I made predictions that haven't come true (yet). But I noticed that you anticipated none of this. You were presuming that Ukraine would slide gracefully and gratefully into the bosom of the EU?

My guess is that my guesses are better than your predictions.

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Thursday, March 5, 2015 8:50 AM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Uh-huh... You were sure that ... that far-right Svoboda would gain control of Ukrainian internal security...?
Um, the far right HAS gained control of Ukraine's internal security. I guess you didn't notice?

Ok, completely different to your prediction of Svoboda taking over Ukraine's internal security, we have a single member of a related group (not Svoboda) being appointed to a minor government position - deputy head of internal affairs in just one region of Ukraine. Way to give yourself a 'win' for a truly terrible prediction Sig.

And just to really bring your point home, you post a photo of some completely different Azov members doing the Nazi salute. Well, here's a picture of a candidate of Front National (that French far-right but pro-Putin party you were cosying up to in the other thread) doing the Nazi salute:

In reality, since the Maidan revolution the much-hyped far-right parties Svoboda and Right Sector have completely failed to register in two national Ukrainian elections, and have gained no power in the Ukrainian government whatsoever. Meanwhile the far-right Azov battalion has won a very small amount of influence because of its reputation for tough fighting and despite its ideology.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Friday, March 6, 2015 7:55 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

"Yats", the Prime Minister of Ukraine, giving the traditional Nazi salute. The person to his right (our left) is Tahnybok, the leader of the far-right Svoboda Party.

Really, I'm far too busy to educate you on how the Nazis have become a large force in Kiev's internal security:

From the right-wing "shock troops" of the Maidan,
to the initial appointment of a right-wing politician to Kiev's Interior Ministry,
to the formation of the "national guard" consisting of (by now) battalions like the Azov and Aidar battalions - with weapons like tanks and rockets,
to the near-martial-law of Kiev,
to the outlawing of opposition parties from civil service ("lustration") and from legality
to the open appointment of Nazis to local governments,
to the near-martial-lay imposed by Kiev ....

you think that the rightwing does NOT have an outsized influence in the Kiev government?

Maybe you should read the USA cognoscenti magazine, Foreign Policy, and recognize that you are being played for a dupe:

Quote:
Pro-Russian forces have said they are fighting against Ukrainian nationalists and "fascists" in the conflict, and in the case of Azov and other battalions, these claims are essentially true.

These are no longer "predictions" but yet again another pointless expression of your bias. This really belongs in another thread. If you really want to discuss this topic, why don't you start another thread?

http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/08/30/preparing-for-war-with-ukraines-fa
scist-defenders-of-freedom/

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns. But that never stops the USA from trying!

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Friday, March 6, 2015 8:45 AM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
"Yats", the Prime Minister of Ukraine, giving the traditional Nazi salute.

Sometimes politicians get snapped in poses that look like Nazi salutes, and such images get used for propaganda purposes, etc. For example here's an example of your girl-crush Marine le Pen:

So I will need better evidence than your one grainy photograph that the (part Jewish) prime minister Yats is a closet Nazi.

Quote:
Really, I'm far too busy to educate you on how the Nazis have become a large force in Kiev's internal security:

Just answer this then: who is the most powerful and influential Nazi in Ukraine's supposedly Nazi-dominated government, and what position does he occupy?

Because all I see so far is rumour and insinuation about a few individuals in low-level positions, and your own heavily biased interpretation of Kiev's actions.

As for the existence of some fascists and Nazis fighting for Ukraine - well, there are a hell of a lot of fascists and Nazis fighting for the separatists too. This quote is from a Spanish communist volunteer who fought with the separatists:

Quote:

“Half of them are communists and the other half are Nazis,” they explained. “We fought together, communists and Nazis alike […]. We all want the same: social justice and the liberation of Russia from the Ukrainian invasion.”

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/02/27/inenglish/1425051026_915897.html?r
el=rosEP

An interesting read that article.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Friday, March 6, 2015 9:00 AM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

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Sunday, March 8, 2015 2:04 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
So I will need better evidence than your one grainy photograph that the (part Jewish) prime minister Yats is a closet Nazi.

Well, he IS on stage with a known Nazi.

There are political candidates in the USA who've been derailed for making speeches to Nazi/ KKK groups.

I didn't say (and didn't mean to imply) that Yats is a closet Nazi. What I DID intend to show... and the person with whom Yats in onstage, Nazi salute or otherwise makes the point .... is that Yats is PANDERING to Nazis. And politicians don't pander to powerless groups.

AFA the rightwing in Ukraine, the fact that there are two rather large Nazi battalions (you know what a battalion is, right?) which were formed by the Interior Ministry speaks volumes. I'm too busy to track down for you all of the rightwing appointees and their oligarch backers (I had listed them right after the coup), but I might get back to this someday. In the meantime, since you seem to find this a topic of great interest, why don't you start a new thread, since you're shitting up your own predictions thread and therefore reducing its utility.

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Monday, March 9, 2015 12:44 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
I didn't say (and didn't mean to imply) that Yats is a closet Nazi. What I DID intend to show... and the person with whom Yats in onstage, Nazi salute or otherwise makes the point .... is that Yats is PANDERING to Nazis. And politicians don't pander to powerless groups.

Yep, thanks for addressing that point. And the whole rest of the post.

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Wednesday, March 11, 2015 7:06 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'll make a conditional prediction.
IF the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) drops to 15,257; then I predict that there will be a bump up to between 16,155-17,050 which might take a week or month to occur, and then at some point (weeks or months) after bumping up to 16,150 or so, it will drop far below 15,000 for an extended period (months or years).

The condition was not met. Dow is back up to new all-time high. Over 18,000.

With the DJIA dropping a bit, I will update this.

I'll make a conditional prediction.
IF the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) drops to 15,545; then I predict that there will be a bump up to between 16,460-17,375 which might take a week or month to occur, and then at some point (weeks or months) after bumping up to 16,460 or so, it will drop far below 15,000 for an extended period (months or years).

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Thursday, March 19, 2015 6:20 PM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

From last year:

Auraptor - "It's growing, not melting."
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=58555&p=1

From this year: "Arctic sea ice extent hits record low for winter"
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31976749

Honestly, a man could make a living betting on the exact opposite of whatever Auraptor predicts. The man is like an inverse-oracle.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Thursday, March 19, 2015 7:44 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
From last year:

Auraptor - "It's growing, not melting."
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=58555&p=1

From this year: "Arctic sea ice extent hits record low for winter"
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31976749

Honestly, a man could make a living betting on the exact opposite of whatever Auraptor predicts. The man is like an inverse-oracle.

Joseph A. Olson and Dr. Tim Ball would disagree with you.
http://www.fauxscienceslayer.com/

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Friday, March 20, 2015 8:45 AM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Joseph A. Olson and Dr. Tim Ball would disagree with you.
http://www.fauxscienceslayer.com/

Wow, debunking topics as varied as AGW, multiculturalism, the big bang theory, evolution. Impressive that this guy is an 'expert' in so many different fields.

He says nothing about Arctic see ice though - and certainly nothing in response to the data that was released just this week.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Saturday, March 21, 2015 10:56 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
This is what's so sad and funny about you and Kiki - you both post such utter bullshit and yet you don't think even for a second that it's completely and utterly obvious (or you just don't care). OF COURSE you thought it was a nazi salute. OF COURSE you thought he'd been caught being a nazi. OF COURSE you thought you'd proven your point beyond reproach.

OF COURSE you're substituting your opinion for fact, again. OF COURSE you're engaging in fact-free allegation, again. NO WONDER you have such a hard time parsing your way through the world!

In all of the rightwing appointees that I LISTED lo these many months ago, for example HERE May 4, 2014

Quote:
MIKER- I call the Ukrainian security administration "fascists" because they are self-avowed Neo-Nazis who quote Hilter. I hate to be the one to have to keep looking stuff up for you, but here is the head of the Svoboda Party, which has three important assignments in internal security apparatus

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=57955&mid=9
70325
, Yats was NOT among them. I didn't think he was a closet Nazi then, and I don't think he's one now. There are at least four significant groups competing for power in Ukraine:

1) The Banksters
Those who reflect the will of Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs, and the IMF: Yats, and (by now) some of the more recent foreign ministerial appointees.

2) The oligarchs
They are doing the best they can to grab as much as possible in confusion (theft being much easier during a riot than during calm) and shuffle their gains to London or Austria as fast as possible, so that they can bail to foreign lands.
This gives you a view of their homeland and foreign holdings

Quote:
At the same time, the apartment of Alexander Avakov, as the journalists of "Observer" found out, is a two level penthouse. In his penthouse there are 5 bedrooms, a living room, an office, dressing room and a kitchen-dining room. Ceiling height: 3.3 m. Panoramic windows overlook the city center. On the second floor of the apartment there are two attic spaces. The apartment comes with two parking spaces underground. Right under the Avakov's porch there is a fitness center with a swimming pool and a spa. In addition, the complex has dry cleaning, a Japanese garden with a fountain and a children's playground.

Quote:
Just in two weeks the rel estate agents found a suitable apartment in Belgravia (Westminster, South-West of Buckingham Palace), one of the most fashionable areas of London. Only for 5 657 000 euros a nice three-story house on Burton-Muse street was found - with four bedrooms, a fireplace and a private garden. Which is really inexpensive by the standards of Belgravia, where it's hard to find even the average prices (not to mention economy class).

http://flb.ru/info/59142.html

3) Nazis
The first crop of Nazis, members of Svoboda and Pravy (Right) Sector, appointed to government as their reward for bringing down Yanukovich:

Oleh Tyahnybok, Svoboda (Nazi) leader, was a year ago a top official of the Ukrainian Parliament

Ihor Tenyukh – interim defense minister and a member of Svoboda’s political council.

Andriy Parubiy – National Security Council chief, co-founded Svoboda back when it was the “Social National” (ahem!) party.

Dmytro Yarosh – Right Sector, deputy head of the National Security Council, i.e. the police.

Oleh Makhnitsky – Svoboda member of parliament, is prosecutor-general.

Oleksandr Sych – Svoboda parliamentarian and the party’s chief ideologist, is deputy prime minister for economic affairs.

Serhiy Kvit – a leading member of Svoboda, is to head up the Education Ministry.

Andriy Moknyk – the new Minister of Ecology, has been Svoboda’s envoy to other European fascist parties.

Ihor Shvaika – agro-oligarch and a member of Svoboda, has been appointed Minister of Agriculture. One of the richest men in the country.

And the current crop of Nazi appointees/ politicians rewarded for their service in the irregular Azov (Nazi) Battalion and/or their continuing affiliation with Svoboda.

Deputy commander of the AZOV ((Nazi) Battalion, Vadim Troyan, who was appointed Kiev’s chief of police.

Yuri Michalchyshyn, formerly the chief ideologist of the neo-fascist Svoboda party, appointed head of the SBU’s "Department of Propaganda."

Azov (Nazi) Battalion commander Andriy Biletsky, who gained a seat in Parliament as the candidate of the "moderate" People’s Front.

I don't have time to track them all down, but (for whatever reason) Azov Battalion is being rewarded while Adair (Nazi) Battalion is being disbanded (Or, at least Poroshenko is trying).

4) Everyone else
People who don't want to be part of Kiev's plan of selling off the nation to foreign interests (to pay off the debt to IMF, which in turn will be used to pay off the debts to Franklin Templeton, George Soros, and other vulture capitalists)
The problem: Franklin Tempelton's $20B investment goes bad
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/imf-world-bank-halt-lending-ukr
aine-franklin-templeton-4-billion-ukraine-bet-goes-bad.html
The solution: create a strategic partnership to divvy up Ukraine, and get the IMF to help bail you out...
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2015/03/17/ukraine-and-rothschil
d-family.html

THIS is what I think is going on. Whatever YOU think is baseless, pointless, and irrelevant, and will remain so until you start dealing with facts. (And first, learn to recognize the difference between facts and opinion/ allegations.)

ETA- Oh, and stop listening to the voices in your head.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Saturday, March 21, 2015 9:40 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

No comments?

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Saturday, March 21, 2015 11:22 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Nope! No comments! But yanno, the article is so very interesting, I'll make a thread for it.

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Wednesday, March 25, 2015 7:58 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Nope! No comments! But yanno, the article is so very interesting, I'll make a thread for it.

Where is the thread? Or is this yet another Siggy-fact, meaning falsehood?

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Wednesday, March 25, 2015 10:45 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Right here

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=59606

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Saturday, March 28, 2015 10:24 PM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

I predict Signy and kiki will not like the conclusions of the official MH17 report when it comes out.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Saturday, March 28, 2015 11:02 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

How do you think you know what I 'like'?

My objection to your and "G"'s notions is that they weren't backed up by facts. When the facts come out, I will like that.

SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Saturday, March 28, 2015 11:17 PM

THGRRI

Yeah them damn oligarchs, I say

them all, and lets start with this guy.

Galley slave" Putin savors yachts, planes, palaces, critics say

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/28/us-russia-putin-perks-idUSBR
E87R0D220120828

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Sunday, March 29, 2015 8:14 AM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

dbl

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Sunday, March 29, 2015 8:21 AM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
How do you think you know what I 'like'?

My objection to your and "G"'s notions is that they weren't backed up by facts. When the facts come out, I will like that.

What you like = the Kremlin/RT narrative.

What you consider to be a 'fact' = anything that fits with this narrative.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Sunday, March 29, 2015 12:33 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

What I like is pointing out that there are different narratives than the one you like. Also, out of 22 pages of posts I only posted two articles - the facts of both of which I verified - from my email that ultimately came from RT. Remember? I don't - in fact - 'constantly' post from RT as you claim. I think you have a serious reality problem. Your biases lead you to think things that aren't true. In this case that I'm an RT droid.

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Sunday, March 29, 2015 12:39 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

KPO = putting words in your mouth (again)?

That's a typical tool of authoritarians.

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Sunday, March 29, 2015 12:57 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

He's also a proven liar.

kiki - Among other hilarities, KPO also believes Iraq manufactured and possessed WMDs. You're not dealing with a rational, evidence-based mind.
signy - Wow, I thought KPO was only twisted about Russia!
kiki - Ask him yourself. I'm sure he'll be happy to tell you.
So, what about those Iraqi WMD, KPO???
krappy - Kiki is unhinged.
kiki -No, I'm not unhinged, it's just that he's a liar.

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=58499&p=7

KPO

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 1:30 PM

I never said anything about importing them - no, it manufactured them and hid the evidence. However, now that you mention it, I did also hear a theory that Saddam DID import WMD - secretly from the USA back in the 80s; and then when the US captured them in 2003 they covered it up. Personally I don't know if it's true or not, but I'm guessing you can't disprove it...

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Sunday, March 29, 2015 1:04 PM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
KPO = putting words in your mouth (again)?

That's a typical tool of authoritarians.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

I wasn't putting words in her mouth, I was describing her bias, and her level of intellectual honesty.

Putting words in someone's mouth is this:

Quote:
Also, out of 22 pages of posts I only posted two articles - the facts of both of which I verified - from my email that ultimately came from RT. Remember? I don't - in fact - 'constantly' post from RT as you claim.

Care to give my true, unedited quote kiki?

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Sunday, March 29, 2015 1:08 PM

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
He's also a proven liar.

kiki - Among other hilarities, KPO also believes Iraq manufactured and possessed WMDs. You're not dealing with a rational, evidence-based mind.
signy - Wow, I thought KPO was only twisted about Russia!
kiki - Ask him yourself. I'm sure he'll be happy to tell you.
So, what about those Iraqi WMD, KPO???
krappy - Kiki is unhinged.
kiki -No, I'm not unhinged, it's just that he's a liar.

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=58499&p=7

KPO

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 1:30 PM

I never said anything about importing them - no, it manufactured them and hid the evidence. However, now that you mention it, I did also hear a theory that Saddam DID import WMD - secretly from the USA back in the 80s; and then when the US captured them in 2003 they covered it up. Personally I don't know if it's true or not, but I'm guessing you can't disprove it...

Lol, this again.

This bit cracks me up:

kiki - "No, I'm not unhinged"

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Sunday, March 29, 2015 1:13 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

So, you don't deny that you lie.

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Sunday, March 29, 2015 2:18 PM

THGRRI

"There are at the present time two great nations in the world, which started from different points, but seem to tend towards the same end. I allude to the Russians and the Americans....The American struggles against the obstacles that nature opposes to him; the adversaries of the Russian are men. The former combats the wilderness and savage life; the latter, civilization with all its arms. The conquests of the American are therefore gained by the plowshare; those of the Russian by the sword. The Anglo-American relies upon personal interest to accomplish his ends and gives free scope to the unguided strength and common sense of the people; the Russian centers all the authority of society in a single arm. The principal instrument of the former is freedom; of the latter, servitude. Their starting point is different and their courses are not the same; yet each of them seems marked out by the will of heaven to sway the destinies of half the globe.”

Alexis De Tocqueville, Democracy in America, 1835

"Russia lacks nearly all the usual prerequisites for a successful transition to democracy. In its long history there is no experience of democracy, nor cultivation of civil society, to draw on. Two centuries of the Mongol yoke were followed by 500 years of the most oppressive autocratic rule in Europe, followed by 75 years of Soviet totalitarianism: the most innovative and deep-rooted system of authoritarian rule the world had ever seen."

Peter Rutland
Government Department
Wesleyan University
Middletown CT 06457

Of course now we have china but that does not change Tocqueville's or Rutland's point. In Russia you serve the master. Funny how neither Sig, or 1kiki wish to live there, but are willing to argue to the point of lying through their teeth to defend it.

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Sunday, March 29, 2015 3:02 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

bored now

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Monday, June 8, 2015 7:34 PM