Quote:

---

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Wow.

You're gonna face such a ginormous climb down, you'll never manage.

Only way for you to not break, mentally, is to stay in your fantasy world.

---

Quote:

---

Russia’s Capture Of Pokrovsk Could Reshape The Conflict’s Dynamics
Andrew Korybko
Aug 23, 2024

Beyond it are just a few lightly defended towns and then vast expanses of grassland that could become the scene of maneuver warfare until Russia reaches the next heavily defended localities further afield.

Ukrainian officials have urged locals in and around the town of Pokrovsk to evacuate within the next two weeks as Russian forces rapidly approach this pivotal military logistics hub. The head of neighboring Mirnograd’s military administration bluntly said “Don’t wait. It will not get better, it will only get worse. Leave”, and then admitted that “The enemy is advancing faster than expected.” The Associated Press cited local commanders who blamed Russia’s swift gains on their side’s poorly trained conscripts.

One of them claimed that “Some people don’t want to shoot. They see the enemy in the firing position in trenches but don’t open fire. ... That is why our men are dying…They don’t receive even the lowest standard of training required for our (combat) actions.” An unnamed soldier also lamented that “The main problem is the survival instinct of newcomers. Before, people could stand until the last moment to hold the position. Now, even when there is light shelling of firing positions, they are retreating.”

The poor quality of Ukraine’s recruits casts doubt on whether the whopping 120,000 [Ukrainian] troops that Belarusian President Lukashenko claimed had been deployed along his border could make much of a difference if some of them are sent to Donbass out of desperation to halt Russia’s advance. They’d more than likely participate in “meat waves” like those before them did in Artyomovsk/Bakhmut and Avdeevka, and just like their predecessors, they’re also destined to sacrifice themselves in vain.

Russia’s capture of Pokrovsk, however long it might take, could reshape the conflict’s dynamics due to this town’s strategic significance for Ukraine’s military logistics. Beyond it are just a few lightly defended towns and then vast expanses of grassland that could become the scene of maneuver warfare. Ukraine’s US-backed invasion of Kursk reminded observers that maneuver warfare isn’t dead like some had earlier claimed, and it might soon make a major comeback in the fields past Pokrovsk.

Ukraine’s successes in Kharkov, Kherson, and most recently Kursk over the past two and a half years were the result of missteps on Russia’s part, not examples of Ukrainian “military genius” like its supporters in the media misportrayed them as. It either exploited overstretched and undermanned supply chains in the first two cases or took advantage of a poorly defended border in the second. None of these three precedents suggests that Ukraine is capable of beating Russia head-to-head at maneuver warfare.

It’s therefore possible that Russia could quickly capture broad swaths of Donbass once maneuver warfare begins to be fought along that front upon its capture of Pokrovsk, which could then improve its position for assaulting the heavily defended Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration in northern Donbass. In that event, Russia might also take advantage of its post-Pokrovsk maneuver warfare successes (assuming that they’re achieved as expected) to branch out in other directions.

Capturing Pokrovsk would enable Russia to move north into southern Kharkov, west into eastern Dnipro (neither of which it has any territorial claims to), and southwest into Zaporozhye (all of which it claims). Opening up a third front in Kharkov to complement the northern and eastern ones from Belgorod and Lugansk could be seen as revenge for Kursk as could opening one in Dnipro. The Kharkov vector could also help cut off supply lines to Kramatorsk-Slavyansk and thus facilitate the full capture of Donbass.

Moving into southeastern Dnipro could be a shortcut for launching operations in northern Zaporozhye so it also can’t be discounted due to the possibility that this could lead to a siege of the latter’s namesake administrative center. Observers can only speculate which vector(s) Russia would move into after Pokrovsk and when that might be, but the point is that maneuver warfare might play a large role in its forthcoming operations after that tow is captured.

Ukraine’s poorly trained conscripts and its lightly defended towns beyond Pokrovsk increase the odds of a partial Russian military breakthrough up to the next heavily defended localities further afield, and this could result in serious changes to the way in which Ukraine fights this conflict. It could either stay the course by doubling down on Kursk (and potentially opening new fronts in Belarus and/or Russia’s other border regions) at the expense of Donbass or decisively shift back to the latter at the former’s expense.

Either way, it’ll be forced into a dilemma, especially if Russia opens up new fronts in Kharkov and/or Dnipro in parallel with putting maximum pressure upon Donbass’ Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. Ukraine thus stands to lose more ground, or it could explore whether Russia would be willing to swap whatever Kiev controls in Kursk for whatever Moscow controls in Kharkov (and possibly also Dnipro by then). The possibility also exists that Ukraine could become hellbent on crossing Russia’s non-negotiable red lines.

About that, this could take the form of a nuclear provocation (such as that which could be caused by a crippling attack against its nuclear power plants or spent nuclear fuel storage sites there), a high-level assassination, or a terrorist attack even worse than the recent Crocus one. The purpose would be to provoke Russia into using nuclear weapons just like Lukashenko warned last week that Kiev wants to do, which could then serve as the tripwire for a conventional NATO intervention in Ukraine’s support.

All told, Russia’s capture of Pokrovsk might still take a while since Kiev could decide to turn this town into the next Artyomovsk, but the conflict’s dynamics will likely be reshaped once that happens if Russia can employ maneuver warfare against the lightly defended towns in the fields beyond. Any subsequent breakthrough would force Ukraine into the dilemma of prioritizing some fronts and the expense of others, but it might try to cut the Gordian knot through a series of swaps or escalations instead.

It's anyone’s guess what it would do in that scenario, but those are the three most likely options: sacrifice one front to save another; swap land with Russia; or try crossing Russia’s non-negotiable red lines as part of a dangerous gamble to “escalate to de-escalate” up to the brink of provoking World War III. In any case, all eyes will be on Pokrovsk as Russia inches towards this pivotal military logistics hub and inevitably begins battling for control of it, so everyone will eventually see what Kiev ultimately does.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

I think that Putin may be holding the military back . . .

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Ukraine could not have invaded Kursk without western ISR and planning

This whole "We didn't know what Ukraine was doing" is just implausible deniability.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

We are, and we're not fooling Russia. Or anyone else, except useless droids like you.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

We are, and we're not fooling Russia. Or anyone else, except useless droids like you.

---

Droid? Not droid! Terminator. If Terminators existed I would send the robots to clear all Russians closer than 50 miles to the border with Ukraine to make a demilitarized zone on Russian land. The Russians won't leave voluntarily? Then they leave like cattle being hauled away to Moscow in 18-wheelers driven by Terminators. There will be rest stops where the Russians are fed, watered and allowed to use toilets. Cattle aren't treated that well. The Russians treated Ukrainians murderously during Holodomor, killing millions of them. Even the Terminators, programmed to follow humanitarian rules, will treat Russians far better than the Russians treated Ukrainians. The Hollywood movie will be called Evicted (by Terminators). I'd buy a ticket!

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Whatever.

We get it: you hate Russia for any number of rationalizations. Any way to keep the hate alive.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Whatever.
We get it: you hate Russia for any number of rationalizations. Any way to keep the hate alive.


SECOND: Signym, you forgot what the Russians did after WWII in Eastern Europe: kill the conquered people who had surrendered.blah bkah blah...

---

Quote:

---

One of the battles I had with the national security establishment in the years up to February 2022 was to persuade them that, despite the intelligence reports and the “wise heads”, Putin was not driven by logic, nor a passion to turn his country into a modern, outward-looking power. He was motivated by revenge, legacy and romance.

...

In Putin’s warped worldview, we were behind the Crimean war and defeat of the Czars, we were behind the rise of Hitler, we were behind the counter-revolution and our espionage was behind the end of the Soviet Union. Britain is in Putin’s crosshairs. One of the most senior members of the Russian Siloviki recently commented: “We know Britain is behind the invasion of Kursk”. We weren’t.

Make no mistake, Putin is coming for us. We must be prepared for the inevitable.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

That was then. This is now.

You have posted DOZENS of 'reasons' to hate Russia, from something the tsars did hundreds of years ago to an inherent genetic flaw to Stalin to ...

Should we punish Germany for what they did in WWII? How about Cambodia for Pol Pot? China, because of Mao? Britain, for its horrific empire?

Oh, I know! We should punish our own south, for slavery!

---

Quote:

---

Signym, did this happen too far into the past to count in your particular scheme of history? 30 Sep 2022 - Putin announces Russian annexation of four Ukrainian regions

The move has been condemned by Ukraine and Western countries and represents a major escalation in the seven-month war.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:

---

Signym, did this happen too far into the past to count in your particular scheme of history? 30 Sep 2022 - Putin announces Russian annexation of four Ukrainian regions

The move has been condemned by Ukraine and Western countries and represents a major escalation in the seven-month war.

---

If Ukraine and the West honored the Minsk agreement... or for that matter, any of their other agreements... instead of diddling Russia for years, decades ... none of this would have happened.

Yes, it was an invasion, but it was hardly "unprovoked". That's what neocons had been aiming at all along, bc they thought we would “win".

NOW they're crying foul bc they're losing? After violating international law for decades?

Pobrecito!

---

Quote:

---

SECOND: Signym, do you really believe what the Russians say?

---

Quote:

---

SITREP 8/28/24: Tangible Panic Grows in Ukraine Amid Donbass-front Collapse

---

Quote:

---

Stelmakhivka And Synkivka Have Fallen Russians Are Storming Selydove Military Summary 2024.08.29

---

Quote:

---

... if we examine the war theater solely from a tactical standpoint – focusing on individual tree lines or single settlements – we may miss the broader operational objectives of the enemy and the potential consequences for Ukraine if these objectives are achieved.

The backbone of Ukraine’s logistics in Donetsk Oblast is under threat

Pokrovsk, a town with a pre-war population of 60,000, is situated west of Avdiivka at a crucial crossroads of multiple railroad lines. It has become a key delivery and railroad distribution hub, facilitating the supply of Ukrainian forces across a broad frontline, from Vuhledar to the north of Donetsk and beyond.

Currently, only two places in the Donbas serve this vital function – Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk. The significance of the location and length of the supply line becomes clear when viewed on a map:

Pokrovsk, a key road and rail hub in Donbas, on a map



...

If Pokrovsk falls, Russian forces would face minimal obstacles in advancing toward Dnipro, potentially extending their control into another administrative region of Ukraine and broadening the list of occupied oblasts.

Russia’s rapid advance in Donbas undeterred by Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk Oblast

---

Quote:

---

Ukrayinska Pravda
"Friendly fire" by Ukrainian air defence among lines of inquiry into F-16 fighter jet crash – Voice of America
Ukraine's military command is considering different lines of inquiry into the F-16 fighter jet crash, including pilot error and friendly fire from Ukrainian air defences.[specifically a Patriot AD]

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Borrell isn't a diplomat. He insulted most of the world by saying the EU is a "garden" and the rest of the world is a "jungle".



**********

PS: Russia is winning. Your bullshit doesn't change that.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Ukraine could not have invaded Kursk without western ISR and planning

This whole "We didn't know what Ukraine was doing" is just implausible deniability.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Ukraine could not have invaded Kursk without western ISR and planning
This whole "We didn't know what Ukraine was doing" is just implausible deniability.

THUGR: So what, what are you going to do about it you Russia loser? Truth be known, if you do live in America then your tax dollars are funding the war against Putin. The Ukranian people thank you.

Too funny...

---

Quote:

---

---

Quote:

---

US to give Zelensky ‘free hand’ on strikes deep inside Russia – Moscow
Washington has effectively become a party to the Ukraine conflict, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova has said.

Washington is prepared to lift its ban on Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia’s territory with the use of US-supplied weapons, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has said.

Last week, Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said that US “policy does allow for Ukraine to conduct counter fires to defend itself from Russian attacks coming over that border region,” including Kursk Region, where an incursion by Kiev’s forces has been ongoing since early August.

On Monday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters that Washington was aware of Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky’s “desire” to be allowed to fire US weapons such as ATACMS missiles, which have a range of up to 300km (186 miles), deep into Russia. “We will keep the conversations with the Ukrainians going [on the issue], but we are going to keep them private,” he said.

“Extremely serious conclusions” can be drawn from the latest statements coming from Washington, Zakharova said on Friday. “Ukraine has been given a carte blanche for operations in Russian regions,” she added.

“Furthermore, the administration of [US President] Joe Biden is obviously getting ready to make new concessions to Zelensky and give him a free hand to use virtually any type of American weapons, including [for attacks] deep into Russian territory,” the spokeswoman stressed, as cited by RIA Novosti.

Through its continued support for Kiev, Washington “has effectively become a party to the armed conflict over Ukraine,” she insisted.

“The US course towards escalation is becoming increasingly outrageous. It seems that the American elites have cast aside the last vestiges of common sense and believe that anything is allowed to them,” Zakharova said.

Earlier this week, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov compared the US and their allies to “children playing with matches” over their continued speculations about greenlighting Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory. “It is a very dangerous thing to do for grown-ups, who are entrusted with nuclear weapons in one or another Western country,” he said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned earlier that Moscow might engage in an asymmetrical response to the US supply of long-range systems to Ukraine, by arming groups or countries hostile to Washington – such as North Korea – with advanced weaponry.

---