REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Sunday, April 28, 2024 02:14
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Friday, August 11, 2023 2:21 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Zelenskiy Signs Law Banning Pro-Russian Political Parties In Ukraine [May 2022]
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-law-bans-pro-russia-parties-zelenskiy-
signs/31849737.html



Ukraine bans activities of religious groups [A Orthodox Christian Church] with [religious] ties to Russia, fearing their collaboration in war
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-12-02/ukraine-bans-rel
igious-organizations-links-russia



Rada Passes Media Regulation Law, Drawing Criticism From Press Freedom Groups - New York Times [Dec 2022]
https://ukranews.com/en/news/902368-rada-passes-media-regulation-law-d
rawing-criticism-from-press-freedom-groups-new-york-times


Reports: Ukraine bans all male citizens ages 18 to 60 from leaving the country [Feb 2022]
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/02/25/russia-invasion-u
kraine-bans-male-citizens-leaving/6936471001
/


Teenagers in Ukraine [draft law] to be banned from traveling abroad on their own: the lawyer explained the details
2023-08-10T15:26:06.687Z
Highlights: The Verkhovna Rada registered draft law No. 9480, which provides for a ban on independent border crossing for teenagers. Currently, all children aged 16 to 18 do not need accompaniment or special permits to leave Ukraine.
https://www.txtreport.com/news/2023-08-10-teenagers-in-ukraine-want-to
-be-banned-from-traveling-abroad-on-their-own--the-lawyer-explained-the-details.SJwqbtGnn.html



Zelensky Fires All Heads of Ukraine's Military Recruitment Amid Bribery Probe [Aug 2023]

Zelensky made the announcement in a video post to official social media accounts:
The president posted a video and text statement regarding the mass removal of local military officials on his official Telegram channel on Friday. The announcement comes amid a national investigation into military commissariats that has already produced 112 criminal cases against local commissars.
https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/7321

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Friday, August 11, 2023 3:19 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Video Shows Russian T-90 Tank Destroyed by Drone After Falling Off a Cliff

By Isabel van Brugen On 8/11/23 at 9:16 AM EDT

https://www.newsweek.com/video-russian-tank-destroyed-drone-attack-ukr
aine-counteroffensive-donetsk-1819152


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, August 11, 2023 3:22 PM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Russian Military Told to Stage Videos to Exaggerate Success: Report

By Jon Jackson On 8/11/23 at 1:48 PM EDT

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-military-told-stage-videos-exaggerate
-success-ukraine-1819237


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, August 11, 2023 3:41 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Oh, wow, SECOND, one Russian tank?? From Newspeak??
Keep flailing away, dood!




Ukraine Map Shows Russians Nearing Kupyansk as Locals Evacuated in Kharkiv
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-war-kupyansk-map-evacuated-1818873

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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Friday, August 11, 2023 4:57 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Oh, wow, SECOND, one Russian tank?? From Newspeak??
Keep flailing away, dood!

Ukraine vs Russia is the battle of dumb vs dumber. Neither side is competent but only one side has threatened to nuke the USA. Putin needs to convince the world that Mother Russia just might be crazy enough to trigger Armageddon. Hence the nearly endless parade of Mad Hatters on Russian state-controlled television and radio singing the virtues of Armageddon as a last resort, just as Medvedev did on Sunday.
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4133192-putin-is-losing-
his-war-but-his-threats-of-armageddon-keep-working


Russian Commander Threatens Drunken Troops With Death
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-commander-threatens-drunken-troops-de
ath-1816502



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, August 11, 2023 5:32 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


And...?

What's your point?



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Friday, August 11, 2023 8:50 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
And...?

What's your point?

If Russia had not spent the last 100 years threatening and actually killing everybody who gets in its way, nobody would care when Russia took over Ukraine, not even the Ukrainians. But Russia has been threatening to nuke the world since it got its first nukes, which is why the EU and the US send ammo to Ukraine.

Russia is poor compared to the EU because Russia has always done a very poor job of running itself. Russia passed along that trait to North Korea, which does an even poorer job of running itself in comparison to South Korea, a vastly wealthier country.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 12, 2023 3:50 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
And...?

What's your point?

If Russia had not spent the last 100 years threatening and actually killing everybody who gets in its way, nobody would care when Russia took over Ukraine, not even the Ukrainians. But Russia has been threatening to nuke the world since it got its first nukes, which is why the EU and the US send ammo to Ukraine.

Russia is poor compared to the EU because Russia has always done a very poor job of running itself. Russia passed along that trait to North Korea, which does an even poorer job of running itself in comparison to South Korea, a vastly wealthier country.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Russia has not spent the last 100 years invading and killing. Learn history and stop spouting hogwash.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, August 12, 2023 7:57 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Russia has not spent the last 100 years invading and killing. Learn history and stop spouting hogwash.


Russia killed 62 million of its own citizens.
From the book Lethal Politics: Soviet Genocide and Mass Murder since 1917 by R. J. Rummel
Download the free book from http://libgen.is/search.php?req=R.+J.+Rummel
https://www.amazon.com/Lethal-Politics-Soviet-Genocide-Murder-ebook/dp
/B073RQ94KF
/

1 61,911,000 Victims: Utopianism Empowered, 1917-1987

2 3,284,000 Victims: The Civil War Period, 1917-1922

3 2,200,000 Victims: The NEP Period 1923-1928

4 11,440,000 Victims: The Collectivization Period, 1929-1935

5 4,345,000 Victims: The Great Terror Period 1936-1938

6 5,104,000 Victims: Pre-World War II Period 1939-June 1941

7 13,053,000 Victims: World War II Period, June 1941-1945

8 15,613,000 Victims: Postwar and Stalin’s Twilight Period, 1945-1953

9 6,872,000 Victims: Post-Stalin Period, 1954-1987

Lethal Politics: Soviet Genocide and Mass Murder since 1917 by R. J. Rummel
Download the free book from http://libgen.is/search.php?req=R.+J.+Rummel
https://www.amazon.com/Lethal-Politics-Soviet-Genocide-Murder-ebook/dp
/B073RQ94KF
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 12, 2023 9:15 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Been thru this with you, SECOND. Not a single other source verifies the favorite lie that you keep posting.

Yanno, once upon a time you used to be able to maintain a normal discussion. Thanks to JAYNZE's necroposting, I found an example here:

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61953&p=6

Now, you just lie your ass off, contradict yourself from one post to the next (literally), defame, and in general spew nonsense. I think you've either been replaced by a bot, and not a very smart one. Or you've gone way, way, waaaay off the deep end.

Better get a checkup, SECOND, especially for frontotemporal dementia. Or alcoholism.



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, August 12, 2023 9:41 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Been thru this with you, SECOND. Not a single other source verifies the favorite lie that you keep posting.

Yanno, once upon a time you used to be able to maintain a normal discussion. Thanks to JAYNZE's necroposting, I found an example here:

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61953&p=6

Now, you just lie your ass off, contradict yourself from one post to the next (literally), defame, and in general spew nonsense. I think you've either been replaced by a bot, and not a very smart one. Or you've gone way, way, waaaay off the deep end.

Better get a checkup, SECOND, especially for frontotemporal dementia. Or alcoholism.

Major Soviet Paper Says 20 Million Died As Victims of Stalin
Feb. 4, 1989

A Soviet weekly newspaper today published the most detailed accounting of Stalin's victims yet presented to a mass audience here, indicating that about 20 million died in labor camps, forced collectivization, famine and executions.

The estimates, by the historian Roy Medvedev, were printed in the weekly tabloid Argumenti i Fakti, which has a circulation of more than 20 million.

The estimated number of deaths is about equal to the number of Soviet soldiers and civilians believed killed in World War II.

Mr. Medvedev's grim arithmetic was reported in a less detailed version last November in Moscow News, a limited-circulation weekly, which sells about 200,000 copies in Russian, but today's article marked the first time the numbers have been disclosed to a nationwide audience.

In all, Mr. Medvedev calculated about 40 million victims of Stalin's repressions, including those arrested, driven from their land or blacklisted.

Although the bookkeeping of Stalin's terror is an inexact and contentious science, Mr. Medvedev's estimates are generally in line with Western calculations that have long been disparaged by more official Soviet historians.

https://www.nytimes.com/1989/02/04/world/major-soviet-paper-says-20-mi
llion-died-as-victims-of-stalin.html


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 12, 2023 9:44 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Been thru this with you, SECOND. Not a single other source verifies the favorite lie that you keep posting.

Yanno, once upon a time you used to be able to maintain a normal discussion. Thanks to JAYNZE's necroposting, I found an example here:

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61953&p=6

Now, you just lie your ass off, contradict yourself from one post to the next (literally), defame, and in general spew nonsense. I think you've either been replaced by a bot, and not a very smart one. Or you've gone way, way, waaaay off the deep end.

Better get a checkup, SECOND, especially for frontotemporal dementia. Or alcoholism.

Cannibal Island: In 1933, Nearly 5,000 Died In One Of Stalin's Most Horrific Labor Camps

TOMSK, Russia – Every year, a small group of locals travels the 550 kilometers northwest from this Siberian city to Nazinsky Island, in the middle of the Ob River, to place a wreath at the foot of a wooden cross. It is a gesture of remembrance for the victims of the horrific events that unfolded there in the summer of 1933.

"Every year in June, we place a wreath at the cross that was placed on the island in 1993," Valeria Shtatolkin told RFE/RL. "But this year, we couldn't go. The water was too high, and the island is almost entirely flooded."

Their dedication to the pilgrimage is part of an effort to remind fellow Russians of an experiment in social engineering and self-sufficiency that went tragically wrong for many of the "settlers" lured by Soviet authorities under Josef Stalin -- whose brutal excesses have frequently been downplayed under Russia's current leadership in favor of a more forgiving historical interpretation of Stalin's three-decade rule.

https://www.rferl.org/a/cannibal-island-in-1933-nearly-5-000-died-in-o
ne-of-stalin-s-most-horrific-labor-camps/29341167.html


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 12, 2023 9:49 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Suicide in Soviet Gulags

David Lester, Karolina E. Krysinska, in Encyclopedia of Violence, Peace, & Conflict (Third Edition), 2022

The Soviet system of labor and concentration camps or the Gulag (GULAG—Glavnoie Upravlenie LAGerei; Main Camp Administration) was organized just after the Russian Revolution in 1918 and lasted into the early 1980s. It spread over almost the whole territory of the Soviet Union and between 1929 and 1953 about 18 million Soviet citizens passed through the Gulag camps. Although no official statistics are available on the number of Gulag prisoners who attempted or died by suicide, there are anecdotal accounts of suicide in the memoirs of camp survivors. For instance, according to Applebaum (2003), in the 1930s, it became relatively common for prisoners in Kolyma to walk quickly and purposefully toward the “death zone” (the no-man's land beside the camp fence) and to stand there to be shot. Another popular method was an escape attempt that provoked the guards to shoot the prisoner.

There are similarities between Muselmänner (or “Muslims”) in the Nazi concentration camps (dying prisoners suffering from diseases of starvation and vitamin deficiency) and Gulag inmates called dokhodyagi (“goners”) who were “quite literally insane with hunger” (Applebaum, 2003, p. 310). There have been suggestions that Muselmänner and dokhodyagi were people who have given up the will to live and so could be regarded as concealed or passive suicides. Nonetheless, it seems more likely that these camp prisoners maintained a desire to survive against all odds, such as fighting for food. It is also possible that the extreme apathy and indifference might have prevented suicides among those Muselmänner or dokhodyagi camp prisoners who wanted to die.

There have been frequent reports of self-mutilation or faked illness among the Gulag inmates which, in many cases, was a desperate attempt to save one's life by escaping slave work. According to the head of the sanitary department of the Gulag in 1939, the most frequent of methods of self-mutilation included “hacking off fingers and extremities, freezing the extremities, artificial irritation and reopening of wound, rashes, scratches, and other actions preventing prompt healing, chemical burns of the skin and underlying tissues, injuries, traumas, etc” (Khlevniuk, 2004, p. 221). These acts were seen by the Gulag authorities as acts of sabotage and were severely punished, with the punishment ranging from an extra camp sentence to death.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/gulag

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 12, 2023 9:57 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


It’s one thing to put a total number to the people who died under Communist rule, just in Russia and the Soviet Union. That figure was something around 66 million. A number like that doesn’t seem as attention-grabbing, however, as the fact that in 1929 and 1930 at least 15 million peasants were marched out onto the tundra and taiga — areas that get so cold trees don’t grow there — and allowed to die. This wave poured forth, sank down into the permafrost, and even our most active minds recall hardly a thing about it. It is as if it had not even scarred the Russian conscience,” Solzhenitsyn explains.

Solzhenitsyn and the Gulag Archipelago
https://www.gasconadecountyrepublican.com/stories/solzhenitsyn-and-the
-gulag-archipelago,35259


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 12, 2023 1:09 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


And those figures don't match yours. Simple arithmetic is beyond you?

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, August 12, 2023 1:32 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
And those figures don't match yours. Simple arithmetic is beyond you?

One guy wrote an entire book and estimated, conservatively, 62 million Russians were murdered by other Russians. (The actual number 61,911,000 is by R. J. Rummel, but 62 million is close enough for me.)

This other guy says 66 million: It’s one thing to put a total number to the people who died under Communist rule, just in Russia and the Soviet Union. That figure was something around 66 million. A number like that doesn’t seem as attention-grabbing, however, as the fact that in 1929 and 1930 at least 15 million peasants were marched out onto the tundra and taiga — areas that get so cold trees don’t grow there — and allowed to die. This wave poured forth, sank down into the permafrost, and even our most active minds recall hardly a thing about it. It is as if it had not even scarred the Russian conscience,” Solzhenitsyn explains.

Solzhenitsyn and the Gulag Archipelago
https://www.gasconadecountyrepublican.com/stories/solzhenitsyn-and-the
-gulag-archipelago,35259


Signym, does your number remain at zero Russians murdered by Russians? Russia is poor now because of those millions and more millions who were murdered in the past. The smarter Russians left Russia to avoid being murdered today, in the here and now. The dumber Russians were left behind to run Russia and they are doing poorly at the job. Recently, some more smart Russians left the dumber Russians behind and in charge of the economy:

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started in late February 2022, more than 300,000 Russian citizens and residents are estimated to have left Russia by mid-March 2022, at least 500,000 by the end of August 2022, and an additional 400,000 by early October, for a total of approximately 900,000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_following_the_Russian
_invasion_of_Ukraine


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, August 13, 2023 9:55 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Slow counteroffensive darkens mood in Ukraine
archived https://archive.li/1evHw from WaPo.

Quote:

WSJ: Western Officials Knew Ukraine Didn’t Have Enough Weapons and Training for Counteroffensive
reposted from WSJ https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraines-lack-of-weaponry-and-tra
ining-risks-stalemate-in-fight-with-russia/ar-AA1edW4t


Soon, Ukraine's limiting factor won't be weapons, it'll be trained soldiers. Apparently Ukraine has kept just one army corps out of the fight (from an original nine) and is preparing for a general mobilization ... i.e. anyone who can walk and hold a gun ... but without proper training these men will be just more meat into a meat grinder.

which brings us to Poland. Altho the Polish population is split on whether to involve itself in Ukraine, Polish President Duda has his eye teeth on Lvov.



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Sunday, August 13, 2023 10:04 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Slow counteroffensive darkens mood in Ukraine
archived https://archive.li/1evHw from WaPo.

Quote:

WSJ: Western Officials Knew Ukraine Didn’t Have Enough Weapons and Training for Counteroffensive
reposted from WSJ https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraines-lack-of-weaponry-and-tra
ining-risks-stalemate-in-fight-with-russia/ar-AA1edW4t


Soon, Ukraine's limiting factor won't be weapons, it'll be trained soldiers. Apparently Ukraine has kept just one army corps out of the fight (from an original nine) and is preparing for a general mobilization ... i.e. anyone who can walk and hold a gun ... but without proper training these men will be just more meat into a meat grinder.

which brings us to Poland. Altho the Polish population is split on whether to involve itself in Ukraine, Polish President Duda has his eye teeth on Lvov.

Ukrainians are depressed that Russians have tortured and murdered millions of Ukrainians and destroyed trillions of dollars in Ukrainian property while the Ukrainians have destroyed very little Russian property, but that does not mean the Ukrainians will surrender since vindictive Russians will do even worse to Ukraine after a surrender. All of Russian history is known to Ukrainians even if Russians don't know their own history of savagery. Russians raped and murdered millions of German civilians after Germany surrendered.
https://www.google.com/search?q=german+civilians+deported+by+russia

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, August 13, 2023 1:12 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Ruble touches 99 to the US dollar, continuing the Russian currency’s monthslong fall

August 11, 2023

The Russian ruble, which has been steadily losing exchange value in a long fall since the beginning of the year, hit 99 to the dollar in Friday trading, its lowest level since the early weeks of the Ukraine war.

In January, the ruble traded at about 66 to the dollar but lost about a third of its value in subsequent months amid continuing concern about the Russian economy.

After Western countries imposed wide sanctions in the wake of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the ruble plunged to as low as 130 against the dollar, but the Russian Central Bank enacted capital controls that stabilized its value. By last summer, it was in the 50-60 range to the dollar.

International sanctions cut off a significant part of imports to Russia, which Central Bank deputy director Alexei Zabotkin said has contributed to the ruble’s fall.

“Activation of domestic demand also contributes to an increase in demand for imports, which, with limited exports, results in a weakening of the ruble, which also puts pressure on prices,” he said at a news conference on Friday.

Zabotkin dismissed speculation that capital flight from Russia was contributing to the ruble’s fall.

“The hypotheses that the exchange rate changes are associated with some significant capital transactions are not very substantiated at the moment,” he said.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ruble-dollar-trading-10d20c122b01a78
dcb95a548529eb2eb



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, August 14, 2023 8:25 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


It’s time to start taking the potential disintegration of Russia seriously.

A number of analysts see the shattering of the Russian Federation as a possible aftermath of Vladimir Putin’s catastrophic war in Ukraine.

Although the world would be better off with a much weakened Russia, its fall may not go smoothly.

The Jamestown Foundation’s Janusz Bugajski would probably agree with this assessment: “as a rump state, under intense international sanctions and shorn of its resource base in Siberia, [Russia] will have severely reduced capabilities to attack neighbors.”

As a result, “NATO’s eastern front will become more secure; while Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova will regain their occupied territories and petition for European Union and NATO integration without fear of Russia’s reaction.” Moreover, “countries in Central Asia will also feel increasingly liberated.”

Washington Post columnist David Ignatius holds a gloomier view: “A fragmenting, demoralized Russia is a devil’s playground. … Russia’s internal disarray poses a severe dilemma for Putin, but it’s very dangerous for the West, too.”

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Tatiana Stanovaya occupies a middle ground, while leaning toward Ignatius. She writes that, on the one hand, “the Kremlin will be wrestling simultaneously with…a deepening crisis of Putin’s leadership, a growing lack of political accountability, increasingly ineffective responses by the authorities to new challenges, an intensifying fragmentation among elites, and a society that is growing more antiestablishment.”

On the other hand, although “the world will have to contend with a more dangerous and unpredictable Russia,” it’s likely that “this inward turn could lead to a more pragmatic approach to the war against Ukraine.”

Bugajski’s optimism derives from his focus on a post-disintegration Russia, one that is a rump state under international scrutiny, lacking the economic and military resources it would need to pursue an imperialist agenda. Ignatius’s pessimism, like that of Stanovaya, derives from their focus on the process of Russia’s disintegration, which, even in the best imaginable circumstances, would be very messy. Both Ignatius implicitly and Stanovaya explicitly worry about a less predictable Russia, which would presumably be more dangerous.

So, who is right?

More at https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4149633-what-if-russia-liter
ally-splits-apart
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, August 14, 2023 3:16 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

There are at least 10 000 graves that I found in the Lviv Oblast, there will be more, because I only checked out the main cemeteries. New graves are also being prepared everywhere.

I can not visit every cemetery or city, because of safety and i need to sustain myself financially, so I need to keep my business going at the same time.

The Ukrainian losses will be somewhere around the 200,000 mark, excluding the missing. That’s my estimate. Almost every person I speak to, knows someone who died, and in turn knows someone else who knows another person that died. The conversations usually go like this… “The man from the second floor of my apartment died, and my cousin from XXXXX lost her son, 3 others from her son’s class also died…”

We will perhaps never know the truth or real losses, and also not on the Russian side.

Interestingly enough, in one week, I also saw over 200 men and more than 30 women with missing limbs or in wheelchairs. These are people that were at the same place as me, at a particular time…so you can conclude yourself how many of those there are.

So let's look at the data points we have showing Ukrainian KIA in the 200-400,000 range.

- Population surveys

- Obituary counts on social media

- Cemetery construction

- Amputation disclosures

- Older, inadvertent official disclosures

- Endless conscription but no army growth

It's all completely internally consistent, pointing to the same approximate number of casualties in the 2-400k range. This is exactly what you would expect if that was in fact the case - all these secondary indicators are consistent with each other and there is no countervailing data besides the obvious lies of Ukrainian officials.

Given that Mediazona's count of Russian KIA in the 30,000 range has recently been validated by another inadvertent disclosure on their side (of some 8,500 WIA returned to duty, total, in the entire VDV for the entire SMO) this also points to an absolutely brutal fact: for every Russian soldier killed in this war, somewhere between seven and thirteen Ukrainian soldiers die. That's apocalyptic for the Ukrainian Army and a disgrace for their Western advisors.

This also, by the way, aligns perfectly with the Ukrainian MoD's claims for -Russian- casualties. This suggests strongly that the Ukrainian MoD's infamously implausibly running count of Russian losses is, astonishingly, actually an accurate report of their own losses - ArmChairWarrior


https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-81323-afu-struggles-for-sym
bolic


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Monday, August 14, 2023 9:37 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Bolton: Biden's policy towards Ukraine only delaying Kyiv's inevitable defeat to Russia:
In other words, Ukraine is losing.

Peskov, Putin's spox, said that Russia only wants to occupy the regions that it has already incorporated into Russia (in other words, Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, Zaparozhiy, and Kherson. But not Karkhiv, Odessa, or any regions further west )

Still, I think that Russia may need to force Ukraine to unconditional surrender if it wants to achieve its security goals so it may push towards Kiev in order to cause a collapse of the Ukrainian government.

We'll see.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Monday, August 14, 2023 10:10 PM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:


Bolton: Biden's policy towards Ukraine only delaying Kyiv's inevitable defeat to Russia:

In other words, Ukraine is losing.

Peskov, Putin's spox, said that Russia only wants to occupy the regions that it has already incorporated into Russia (in other words, Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, Zaparozhiy, and Kherson. But not Karkhiv, Odessa, or any regions further west )

Still, I think that Russia may need to force Ukraine to unconditional surrender if it wants to achieve its security goals so it may push towards Kiev in order to cause a collapse of the Ukrainian government.

We'll see.




Ukraine Gains in Small Donetsk Village Have Major Frontline Implications

The southern axis of Ukraine's grinding counteroffensive reportedly secured another key gain over the weekend, with unconfirmed reports emerging that Russian troops were pushed out of their defensive positions in the Donetsk Oblast town of Urozhaine, a small village north of Moscow's formidable defensive line and on the road to occupied Mariupol

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-gains-in-small-donetsk-vi
llage-have-major-frontline-implications/ar-AA1ffM2y?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=a13d8cff7df44e36b531d08cc07753e0&ei=30




T

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Tuesday, August 15, 2023 4:30 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Russia’s ‘General Armageddon’ removed from military leadership, under house arrest - Tuesday, August 15, 2023

Sergei Surovikin can’t leave his apartment and has been told to stay silent until he’s forgotten

Surovikin had been removed from his role as commander of the Kremlin’s forces in Ukraine.

Sobolev also hinted that Surovikin could ultimately make a comeback, telling the Russian news site that the general could be useful to the army at a later point, if he isn’t found to have committed serious violations.

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-general-armageddon-sergei-surov
ikin-removed-military-leadership-under-house-arrest-reports
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, August 15, 2023 7:23 PM

K2PO


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Bolton: Biden's policy towards Ukraine only delaying Kyiv's inevitable defeat to Russia:
In other words, Ukraine is losing.


What were Bolton's actual words, where he said that?

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Tuesday, August 15, 2023 9:19 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Bolton: Biden's policy towards Ukraine only delaying Kyiv's inevitable defeat to Russia:
In other words, Ukraine is losing.

K2PO: What were Bolton's actual words, where he said that?


*****

QUOTE:
Quote:

"Ukraine’s offensive failures and Russia’s defensive successes"


Russia is succeeding and Ukraine is failing. Sounds like defeat to me!




-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Tuesday, August 15, 2023 9:23 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:


Bolton: Biden's policy towards Ukraine only delaying Kyiv's inevitable defeat to Russia:

In other words, Ukraine is losing.

Peskov, Putin's spox, said that Russia only wants to occupy the regions that it has already incorporated into Russia (in other words, Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, Zaparozhiy, and Kherson. But not Karkhiv, Odessa, or any regions further west )

Still, I think that Russia may need to force Ukraine to unconditional surrender if it wants to achieve its security goals so it may push towards Kiev in order to cause a collapse of the Ukrainian government.

We'll see.

THUGR:
Quote:

Ukraine Gains in Small Donetsk Village Have Major Frontline Implications

The southern axis of Ukraine's grinding counteroffensive reportedly secured another key gain over the weekend, with unconfirmed reports emerging that Russian troops were pushed out of their defensive positions in the Donetsk Oblast town of Urozhaine, a small village north of Moscow's formidable defensive line and on the road to occupied Mariupol



https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-gains-in-small-donetsk-vi
llage-have-major-frontline-implications/ar-AA1ffM2y?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=a13d8cff7df44e36b531d08cc07753e0&ei=30




Oh, thank goodness Kiev has something to show for 40,000+ dead in two months! If they keep winning like that, the war will be over by November!



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Wednesday, August 16, 2023 7:43 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


In the following article, Daniel L. Davis explains the Ukrainian military failures. I agree with Davis, but Davis does not mention the biggest failure: failing to close the Kersh Strait Bridge to Crimea. Ukraine has had many years to develop a plan, then buy or build what is needed to bring down that bridge, but the bridge still stands despite several rushed and poorly executed attempts. That is the dumbest mistake (and the most significant) Ukraine made but it has made many others. It is hard to decide which side is dumber. Russia? Or Ukraine?

Ukraine’s last-gasp offensive has failed, and no amount of spin will change the outcome.

Double Disaster at Bakhmut for Ukraine and Russia

Bakhmut was a medium-sized town of about 70,000. It had some tactical significance for whoever possessed it, but by itself cannot be considered critical at even an operational level. Ukraine had held the town, but by early March, Wagner reached the eastern outskirts of the city. The military necessity for Ukraine at that time was to withdraw from Bakhmut to the next defended line to the west.

From this new position, Ukraine’s ability to defend would have been stronger and Russia’s task to attack the new Ukrainian lines more difficult because the Ukraine side would have had the high ground and open fields of fire through which Russia would have to advance, making any assault extremely difficult and costly in terms of men and equipment. But by staying in Bakhmut, the task for the Russians was much easier. Now, Russia could move to within literal meters of the Ukrainian positions within Bakhmut without being seen. The Bakhmut defenders were at a disadvantage from that point forward.

However, Zelensky chose to press the fight anyway. For months, senior U.S. leaders warned the Ukrainian president the battle was unwinnable and to move to other defensive positions. Not only did he refuse to withdraw to a superior fighting position, he ordered his men not to give up so much as a single building, forcing them to fight to the death. Month after month, Zelensky sent brigade after brigade to reinforce Bakhmut in an effort to reverse the tide.

Not only was it painfully obvious that military fundamentals made clear there was little rational hope of stopping Wagner’s drive to capture Bakhmut, but many of those brigades Zelensky sent in futile aid to help Bakhmut were also urgently needed in the upcoming spring and summer offensive. Two days after Bakhmut’s fall, Zelensky was still defiant, claiming the city had not fallen. In 2022, Zelensky’s tenacity and unwillingness to compromise resulted in blunting Russia’s invasion and then inflicting two major operational defeats.

But those successes bred hubris that in May 2023 led him to make very costly mistakes with strategic implications: not only did Ukraine spend irreplaceable resources on defending a strategically inconsequential city, but they also lost critically important brigades for their long-shot offensive that was to come. Unfortunately, once the offensive was launched in June, the mistakes continued.

Inadequate and Improper Training Paved the Way to Failure

Over many months prior to the offensive, many Western publications hailed the “advanced training” the Ukrainian Armed Forces were getting from a number of NATO countries. Concurrently, a number of Ukrainian brigades were also outfitted with modern NATO combat vehicles such as the Challenger and Leopard tanks, U.S. artillery systems, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, and Strykers. The combination of NATO technology with NATO training was expected to produce a quality offensive capacity that would penetrate Russian defenses and drive a wedge to the Azov coast, splitting the occupying forces in half.

Foreign Affairs, on the day the offensive started, published an analysis titled “Ukraine’s Hidden Advantage: How European Trainers Have Transformed Kyiv’s Army and Changed the War.” And yet as has been painfully observed now after almost three months of the operation, European and NATO training did not transform the UAF. As I argued months before the offensive began, it was nearly impossible for Ukraine to transform itself in a matter of weeks or a few months of training and a hodge-podge of NATO gear. The reasons are fundamental – and are no reflection on the Ukrainian troops, as American soldiers are equally constrained by these fundamentals.

In order to produce an effective field force capable of employing combined arms operations to defeat a major power that has prepared a multi-belt defensive system, you must first have a sizable number of fully manned combat brigades. The battalions and companies of each brigade must be staffed with platoon leaders and sergeants, company commanders, First Sergeants, Sergeants Major, and battalion commanders and operations officers with experience in conducting such operations. These leaders need experience of two to five years at the platoon level, 5 to 7 years at the company, and 15-20 years at the battalion and brigade levels.

Once the units are properly filled with educated and trained leaders, the next requirement is to develop proficiency in the individual soldier to do his skill (tank driver, Bradley gunner, infantry squad member, etc), then train crews to operate armored fighting platforms, then platoons to fight together, then the companies fight together, then battalions together at the brigade, and finally brigades and divisions in the theater army. All of this individual and collective training has to be done to produce a successful, coordinated combined arms operation. Ukraine had none of those prerequisites. It should have been no surprise, therefore, that the much-anticipated offensive ran into a brick wall from the outset.

Tactical Performance in the 2023 Ukraine Summer Offensive

I have previously covered in depth the detailed performance of the Ukrainian army in its offensive but will discuss here the key mistakes that were responsible for their lack of success. The first problem was the Ukrainian military and political leadership ordering the offensive to begin at all. Nearly a month after the start of the operation, Ukrainian commanding general Valery Zaluzhny argued in a Washington Post interview that “it ****** me off” when he hears complaints about the lack of progress.

Yet in the same interview acknowledge that “without being fully supplied (for the offensive), these plans are not feasible at all.” Key among his complaints was the absence of air superiority. NATO, he said, would never launch an offensive operation without air superiority. And he is right. But Zaluzhny had even more fundamentals against him.

Ukraine also suffers from a chronic lack of air defense capacity, inadequate numbers of howitzers and artillery shells, insufficient electronic warfare systems, a dearth of missiles, and perhaps most crucial of all, barely 25 percent of the de-mining capacity needed. Thus, when Ukraine launched its offensive across a broad front on June 5th, it should have surprised no one in Kyiv, Washington, or Brussels that they ran into a Russian buzzsaw.

More at https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/08/the-hard-reality-ukraines-last-gas
p-offensive-has-failed
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, August 16, 2023 9:37 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive has—so far—proved underwhelming, his troops winning back slivers of land in the south and east of the country at high cost. The Ukrainians are reportedly inflicting withering losses on the Russian defenders, but six weeks into the operation, Moscow's multi-layered defensive network is yet to break.

Zelensky faces an impossible choice: to go all-in and risk a costly failure or to cut Ukraine's losses and accept a politically damaging defeat.

The lack of progress has intensified the strategic debate at the highest levels of the Ukrainian government,
sources with knowledge of the discussions have told Newsweek, setting some within the president's office against the military command.

Some in the former group want to consolidate Kyiv's limited successes and prepare for an expected fall-winter Russian offensive. But figures in the latter—including commander-in-chief General Valery Zaluzhnyi—want to push on, with Ukrainian military officials decrying criticism as impatience rooted in misunderstanding.

https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-pivotal-ukraine-counteroffensive-cal
l-threatens-divide-leadership-1819564


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, August 16, 2023 2:41 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
In the following article, Daniel L. Davis explains the Ukrainian military failures. I agree with Davis, but Davis does not mention the biggest failure: failing to close the Kersh Strait Bridge to Crimea. Ukraine has had many years to develop a plan, then buy or build what is needed to bring down that bridge, but the bridge still stands despite several rushed and poorly executed attempts. That is the dumbest mistake (and the most significant) Ukraine made but it has made many others. It is hard to decide which side is dumber. Russia? Or Ukraine?

Oh, not hard at all: USA neocons, who conned Ukraine into being their dupes

Quote:

Ukraine’s last-gasp offensive has failed, and no amount of spin will change the outcome.

Double Disaster at Bakhmut for Ukraine and Russia

Bakhmut was a medium-sized town of about 70,000. It had some tactical significance for whoever possessed it, but by itself cannot be considered critical at even an operational level. Ukraine had held the town, but by early March, Wagner reached the eastern outskirts of the city. The military necessity for Ukraine at that time was to withdraw from Bakhmut to the next defended line to the west.

From this new position, Ukraine’s ability to defend would have been stronger and Russia’s task to attack the new Ukrainian lines more difficult because the Ukraine side would have had the high ground and open fields of fire through which Russia would have to advance, making any assault extremely difficult and costly in terms of men and equipment. But by staying in Bakhmut, the task for the Russians was much easier. Now, Russia could move to within literal meters of the Ukrainian positions within Bakhmut without being seen. The Bakhmut defenders were at a disadvantage from that point forward.

However, Zelensky chose to press the fight anyway. For months, senior U.S. leaders warned the Ukrainian president the battle was unwinnable and to move to other defensive positions. Not only did he refuse to withdraw to a superior fighting position, he ordered his men not to give up so much as a single building, forcing them to fight to the death. Month after month, Zelensky sent brigade after brigade to reinforce Bakhmut in an effort to reverse the tide.

Not only was it painfully obvious that military fundamentals made clear there was little rational hope of stopping Wagner’s drive to capture Bakhmut,

And actualy, taking Bakhmut was NOT Russia's plan. This was all on Progozhin. Russian MoD would have been content to let Zelensky pour tide after tide of meat into the grinder. Russia had developed a defensive line well to the east of Bakhmut, and now they have to defend a city that doesn't have proper defenses set up, and is less defensible than their planned positions. If Surovikin is in trouble for anything, it's letting Prigozhin take charge of the military tactics in Bakhmut. Like Ukraine, that has strategic consequences for Russia, forcing them to fight for a spot they had no interest in.

Quote:

but many of those brigades Zelensky sent in futile aid to help Bakhmut were also urgently needed in the upcoming spring and summer offensive. Two days after Bakhmut’s fall, Zelensky was still defiant, claiming the city had not fallen. In 2022, Zelensky’s tenacity and unwillingness to compromise resulted in blunting Russia’s invasion and then inflicting two major operational defeats.
But the Ukrainian army never really engaged Russian forces, they were merely dealing with those covering Russian retreats.

Quote:

But those [meaningless] successes bred hubris that in May 2023 led him to make very costly mistakes with strategic implications: not only did Ukraine spend irreplaceable resources on defending a strategically inconsequential city, but they also lost critically important brigades for their long-shot offensive that was to come. Unfortunately, once the offensive was launched in June, the mistakes continued.

Inadequate and Improper Training Paved the Way to Failure

Over many months prior to the offensive, many Western publications hailed the “advanced training” the Ukrainian Armed Forces were getting from a number of NATO countries. Concurrently, a number of Ukrainian brigades were also outfitted with modern NATO combat vehicles such as the Challenger and Leopard tanks, U.S. artillery systems, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, and Strykers. The combination of NATO technology with NATO training was expected to produce a quality offensive capacity that would penetrate Russian defenses and drive a wedge to the Azov coast, splitting the occupying forces in half.

Foreign Affairs, on the day the offensive started, published an analysis titled “Ukraine’s Hidden Advantage: How European Trainers Have Transformed Kyiv’s Army and Changed the War.” And yet as has been painfully observed now after almost three months of the operation, European and NATO training did not transform the UAF. As I argued months before the offensive began, it was nearly impossible for Ukraine to transform itself in a matter of weeks or a few months of training and a hodge-podge of NATO gear. The reasons are fundamental – and are no reflection on the Ukrainian troops, as American soldiers are equally constrained by these fundamentals.

One point Brian Berlectic, New Atlas, has been making over and over again is that it takes months and years to train and develop an effective fighting force with new weaponry, and that includes recovery, repair, and supply logistics. And it takes lots and lots of practice to develop a combined arms force, with one unit (say, mechanized infantry) learning how to move with other units (reconnaissance, artillery, de-mining, tank, air force, air defense, counterbattery, etc) in a coordinatd fashion. Multiply that by the hodge podge of weapons donated to Ukraine, and you have a training and logistical nightmare that would take years to sort out. T

But the BIGGEST mistake was ... I'll get to that later

Quote:

In order to produce an effective field force capable of employing combined arms operations to defeat a major power that has prepared a multi-belt defensive system, you must first have a sizable number of fully manned combat brigades. The battalions and companies of each brigade must be staffed with platoon leaders and sergeants, company commanders, First Sergeants, Sergeants Major, and battalion commanders and operations officers with experience in conducting such operations. These leaders need experience of two to five years at the platoon level, 5 to 7 years at the company, and 15-20 years at the battalion and brigade levels.

Once the units are properly filled with educated and trained leaders, the next requirement is to develop proficiency in the individual soldier to do his skill (tank driver, Bradley gunner, infantry squad member, etc), then train crews to operate armored fighting platforms, then platoons to fight together, then the companies fight together, then battalions together at the brigade, and finally brigades and divisions in the theater army. All of this individual and collective training has to be done to produce a successful, coordinated combined arms operation. Ukraine had none of those prerequisites. It should have been no surprise, therefore, that the much-anticipated offensive ran into a brick wall from the outset.

Agree. But this was well-known by some. It shouldn't have to wait until the autopsy to be sussed out.

Quote:

Tactical Performance in the 2023 Ukraine Summer Offensive

I have previously covered in depth the detailed performance of the Ukrainian army in its offensive but will discuss here the key mistakes that were responsible for their lack of success. The first problem was the Ukrainian military and political leadership ordering the offensive to begin at all. Nearly a month after the start of the operation, Ukrainian commanding general Valery Zaluzhny argued in a Washington Post interview that “it ****** me off” when he hears complaints about the lack of progress.

These complaints came FROM WASHINGTON, UK, AND EU HARDLINERS. Zelenskiy was merely channeling what he was hearing.

Quote:

Yet in the same interview acknowledge that “without being fully supplied (for the offensive), these plans are not feasible at all.” Key among his complaints was the absence of air superiority. NATO, he said, would never launch an offensive operation without air superiority. And he is right. But Zaluzhny had even more fundamentals against him.

Ukraine also suffers from a chronic lack of air defense capacity, inadequate numbers of howitzers and artillery shells, insufficient electronic warfare systems, a dearth of missiles, and perhaps most crucial of all, barely 25 percent of the de-mining capacity needed. Thus, when Ukraine launched its offensive across a broad front on June 5th, it should have surprised no one in Kyiv, Washington, or Brussels that they ran into a Russian buzzsaw.

More at https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/08/the-hard-reality-ukraines-last-gas
p-offensive-has-failed
/



The CRUCIAL mistake began with the STATE DEPARTMENT NEOCON CABAL: BLINKEN, NULAND, and other less well-known extra-governmental supporters like Fiona Hill and Robert Kagan and even George Soros.

THEY were responsible for the coup 2008, and armed Ukraine from then to 2022. By then, Ukraine had the LARGEST most WELL EQUIPPED ARMY IN EUROPE, with extremely well dug-in defensive positions in Mariupol, Bakhmut, Avdiika, Marynka etc. Then, they massed troops at their far eastern border with Donbas, and provoked Russia into attacking with a NATO chorus of "Ukraine in NATO" and Zelenskiy asking for nukes.

Russia's attack was the neocon's trigger for pre-planned "scorched earth" sanctions against Russia- freezing Russia's internationally-held assets and kicking it off SWIFT, essentially isolating it from the international finance market - which the neocons, in their hubris, thought would bring Russia to its knees. (Like they tried to do in 2014/5 with their attack on oil prices and the ruble.) That should have brought about "regime change" and allowed Kiev to take advantage of Russian disorganization to advance not only on Donbas but into Russia itself.

The problem is, it didn't work.

And they had no "Plan B". They STILL don't have a "plan B". Our military was never prepared to fight a land war against a near-peer, and should have advised the WH and State Dept so. But the generals were apparently thinking about their retirement packages and, except for a few muted protests about this or that weapons systems, never gave the WH and neocons a straight assessment of the military situation in Ukraine.

There are no options left FOR US except nukes, which Bolton is apparently willing to try out. So now everyone is kicking Ukraine under the bus, when they should be focusing on the origins of the war: squarely with USA neocons/neolibs and Soros' ultimate plan for EU nations to self-annihilate. Which, they've obligingly done.



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Friday, August 18, 2023 7:08 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

And they had no "Plan B". They STILL don't have a "plan B". Our military was never prepared to fight a land war against a near-peer, and should have advised the WH and State Dept so. But the generals were apparently thinking about their retirement packages and, except for a few muted protests about this or that weapons systems, never gave the WH and neocons a straight assessment of the military situation in Ukraine.

There are no options left FOR US except nukes, which Bolton is apparently willing to try out. So now everyone is kicking Ukraine under the bus, when they should be focusing on the origins of the war: squarely with USA neocons/neolibs and Soros' ultimate plan for EU nations to self-annihilate. Which, they've obligingly done.

I love when you write Russian propaganda. Unashamed, you reveal your inner nature. All around me, I see Trumptards revealing themselves by surrendering to their urges and fears. For one example out of many: "Woe is me. I can't lose weight easily so I'm going in the opposite direction and eating to make me happy while it makes me fatter. No one can blame me since it is not my fault I'm this way. My metabolism is to blame." You Trumptards don't know what to do in large matters or small. The path for you is always the one with low effort and low stress, to give up. Let others struggle and you will watch and give wrong advice and speak long and passionately about what you will never understand. To know is too much effort and stress for you. So much simpler to not know and to do little.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, August 18, 2023 7:09 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


What ‘Oppenheimer' and Ukraine Teach Us About War
by Paul Krugman
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/15/opinion/war-tech-oppenheimer.html

If you’ve seen the movie “Oppenheimer,” which you should — trust me, it’s gripping even though it’s three hours long and you know how the story ends — you probably noticed several appearances by the physicist Isidor Isaac Rabi, who is portrayed in some ways as Oppenheimer’s voice of conscience. I was a bit puzzled when I watched, because I happened to know that Rabi wasn’t a resident at Los Alamos during the Manhattan Project. But the film was historically accurate: Rabi did visit Los Alamos on occasion, and was present for the Trinity bomb test.

Why wasn’t Rabi at Los Alamos? The film highlights his ethical qualms. But the truth is that he was involved in another secret project applying cutting-edge science to the war effort, M.I.T.’s Radiation Laboratory, which basically worked on advanced radar. The Rad Lab arguably had an even bigger impact on the course of the war than the Manhattan Project, because it turned microwave technology, originally developed in Britain, into a radar system that German submarines couldn’t detect. This was a major factor in the Allies’ 1943 victory in the Battle of the Atlantic, which secured the sea lanes to Britain; this in turn set the stage first for the decisive defeat of the Luftwaffe in early 1944, and then for D-Day.

There were other crucial scientific efforts too, like the group at Johns Hopkins that developed the proximity fuse, which made antiaircraft guns far more effective because they could bring down a plane without scoring a direct hit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proximity_fuze

All of this was made possible not just by America’s economic might but also by its cultural and social openness. At one point in the movie Oppenheimer says that the only reason we might beat the Germans to the bomb is Nazi antisemitism; indeed, America’s war effort was crucially aided by our willingness to take in and make use of the scientific talents of refugees.

If you’re a history buff like me, you find this stuff fascinating in its own right. But it’s also relevant, even now, to American politics — and to the war in Ukraine.

Many people on the U.S. right seem to equate national greatness with military prowess and believe that military prowess is associated with macho posturing. The epitome of this attitude was Ted Cruz’s infamous ad contrasting tough-looking Russian recruits with U.S. recruiting ads that celebrated diversity, and declaring that we were made weak by having a “woke, emasculated” military. And you still hear that sort of thing despite the catastrophic and very recent failures of Russia’s un-woke, un-emasculated army.

This is all, of course, deeply stupid. Wars still require almost unimaginable courage and endurance on the part of combatants. But they haven’t been won by sheer brawn for a long time. They are instead won largely by production capacity — and intellectual creativity.

I’ve read many books about World War II. The book that did the most to change how I thought about the conflict was “How the War Was Won,” by the military historian Phillips P. O’Brien, which begins with this memorable sentence: “There were no decisive battles in World War II.” O’Brien shows that even the bloodiest, most stupendous battles, like the battle of Kursk in 1943, destroyed at most a few weeks’ worth of the losing side’s war production. What decided the war was Allied success in dominating first the seas, then the air — success that depended crucially on intellectuals like Rabi, who didn’t look like anyone’s idea of a warrior, or Alan Turing, who led the code-breaking efforts at Bletchley Park but whose gayness would have made him an outcast in the right-wing vision of what America should be.

O’Brien was, as it happens, one of the few prominent military analysts who disagreed with the consensus that Russia would quickly and easily conquer Ukraine, and has been a frequent and insightful commentator on the course of the ongoing war. He believes that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will eventually succeed; I’m not qualified to judge whether he’s right, but I do understand his reasoning. https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-38

Here’s how I’d put it: The Ukrainians discovered early on that they couldn’t pull off a blitzkrieg, using armored vehicles to punch a hole in Russia’s defense lines and then racing for the coast. When they tried that, they ran into dense minefields and withering artillery fire. So they reverted to tactics that seem on the surface almost like those of World War I: small-scale (and incredibly brave) infantry attacks that gain at most a few hundred yards at a time.

Under the surface, however — pun not really intended — what’s going on is something like the Battle of the Atlantic. Those infantry assaults force the Russians to respond, exposing their artillery systems in particular to attacks from Ukrainians using superior Western technology, supplemented by local ingenuity.

If this strategy is working — again, a question I’m not competent to answer — Ukraine’s slow gains on the ground aren’t a good indication of what’s really happening. If the optimists are right, the real story is the gradual degradation of the stuff behind Russia’s lines — counter-battery radar, artillery pieces, command centers and so on.

One notable thing about the Battle of the Atlantic is that the denouement was quite sudden. We now know that the Allies were gradually gaining the upper hand for many months before a sudden surge in U-boat losses forced the Germans to abandon their attacks.

Will there be a similar tipping point in Ukraine? I don’t know. But what we do know is that this war, like most modern wars, will be determined more by brains and open-mindedness than by tough-guy posturing.



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, August 18, 2023 10:07 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Once upon a time I thought Paul Krugman was smart. Maybe he was. But's he's reduced himself to an inane blatherer of DNC/ neocon/ 'woke' orthodoxy.

Quote:

Originally posted by second:
What ‘Oppenheimer' and Ukraine Teach Us About War
by Paul Krugman
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/15/opinion/war-tech-oppenheimer.html

If you’ve seen the movie “Oppenheimer,” which you should — trust me, it’s gripping even though it’s three hours long and you know how the story ends — you probably noticed several appearances by the physicist Isidor Isaac Rabi, who is portrayed in some ways as Oppenheimer’s voice of conscience. I was a bit puzzled when I watched, because I happened to know that Rabi wasn’t a resident at Los Alamos during the Manhattan Project. But the film was historically accurate: Rabi did visit Los Alamos on occasion, and was present for the Trinity bomb test.

Why wasn’t Rabi at Los Alamos? The film highlights his ethical qualms. But the truth is that he was involved in another secret project applying cutting-edge science to the war effort, M.I.T.’s Radiation Laboratory, which basically worked on advanced radar. The Rad Lab arguably had an even bigger impact on the course of the war than the Manhattan Project, because it turned microwave technology, originally developed in Britain, into a radar system that German submarines couldn’t detect.

Which means...? How does "radar -detecting submarines" even fit togther?

Quote:

This was a major factor in the Allies’ 1943 victory in the Battle of the Atlantic, which secured the sea lanes to Britain; this in turn set the stage first for the decisive defeat of the Luftwaffe in early 1944, and then for D-Day.
Yeah, I'd still like to read an explanation for that. The sea lanes were secured by Navy ships convoying cargo ships. At some point, I presume that the Navy ships got the new-fangled microwave radar. But radar doesn't operate underwater, so it wouln't help ships detect subs, and it wouldn't help subs detect ships. So what does radar have to do with submarines? I thought subs operated on SONAR, and ships are NOISY and can be detected passively just by listening.

Quote:

There were other crucial scientific efforts too, like the group at Johns Hopkins that developed the proximity fuse, which made antiaircraft guns far more effective because they could bring down a plane without scoring a direct hit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proximity_fuze
And all of this is to say .. what? Where is he going with this??

Quote:

All of this was made possible not just by America’s economic might but also by its cultural and social openness.
OH, I SEE! It leads to the prerequisite virtue signalling!

Quote:

At one point in the movie Oppenheimer says that the only reason we might beat the Germans to the bomb is Nazi antisemitism; indeed, America’s war effort was crucially aided by our willingness to take in and make use of the scientific talents of refugees.
And later, AFTER the war, our willingness to provide top Nazi scientists with passports so they could continue to do their work here!

Maybe somewhere in there is Paul's unstated rationalization for supporting Nazis in Ukraine. Because of "openness".

Quote:

If you’re a history buff like me, you find this stuff fascinating in its own right. But it’s also relevant, even now, to American politics — and to the war in Ukraine.

Many people on the U.S. right seem to equate national greatness with military prowess and believe that military prowess is associated with macho posturing. The epitome of this attitude was Ted Cruz’s infamous ad contrasting tough-looking Russian recruits with U.S. recruiting ads that celebrated diversity, and declaring that we were made weak by having a “woke, emasculated” military.

He's conflating our soft-bellied military recruits ... yanno, those who are supposed to make up the bulk of our FIGHTING force ... with the civilian scientists and engineers who developed weapons. Not the same!

Quote:

And you still hear that sort of thing despite the catastrophic and very recent failures of Russia’s un-woke, un-emasculated army.
WHAT recent, catastrophic failures? If he knows what they are, he should share.

Quote:

This is all, of course, deeply stupid. Wars still require almost unimaginable courage and endurance on the part of combatants. But they haven’t been won by sheer brawn for a long time. They are instead won largely by production capacity
Which we and the rest of NATO seem to have given up on.

Quote:

— and intellectual creativity.
Again, the hints that 'we' are working on some wunderwaffe that will win the day. I dunno what that might be. Biowarfare? Tactical nukes? EW the likes of which the world has never seen? Space-based weapons?

Quote:

I’ve read many books about World War II. The book that did the most to change how I thought about the conflict was “How the War Was Won,” by the military historian Phillips P. O’Brien, which begins with this memorable sentence: “There were no decisive battles in World War II.” O’Brien shows that even the bloodiest, most stupendous battles, like the battle of Kursk in 1943, destroyed at most a few weeks’ worth of the losing side’s war production. What decided the war was Allied [i.e. including the Soviet Union] success in dominating first the seas, then the air
And this applies to Ukraine because NATO is planning to dominate... the Black Sea? The air over Ukraine? What? I guess what he's trying to say is ... the LAND WAR is a fiasco, but all is not lost! Because there's still the air. And the sea! And, maybe, space!

Quote:

— success that depended crucially on intellectuals like Rabi, who didn’t look like anyone’s idea of a warrior, or Alan Turing, who led the code-breaking efforts at Bletchley Park but whose gayness would have made him an outcast in the right-wing vision of what America should be.

O’Brien was, as it happens, one of the few prominent military analysts who disagreed with the consensus that Russia would quickly and easily conquer Ukraine, and has been a frequent and insightful commentator on the course of the ongoing war. He believes that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will eventually succeed; I’m not qualified to judge whether he’s right, but I do understand his reasoning. https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-38

Here’s how I’d put it: The Ukrainians discovered early on that they couldn’t pull off a blitzkrieg, using armored vehicles to punch a hole in Russia’s defense lines and then racing for the coast. When they tried that, they ran into dense minefields and withering artillery fire. So they reverted to tactics that seem on the surface almost like those of World War I: small-scale (and incredibly brave) infantry attacks that gain at most a few hundred yards at a time.

That is the only part of this that makes sense. If you're outgunned and out-ISR'd you can't mass your troops and armored vehicles for a big offensive bc they'll just be a big target. You need to break your forces up into small units and get as close to the line as possible, reducing the fighting to the infantry v infantry level.

Quote:

Under the surface, however — pun not really intended — what’s going on is something like the Battle of the Atlantic. Those infantry assaults force the Russians to respond, exposing their artillery systems in particular to attacks from Ukrainians using superior Western technology
SUCH AS? Better counterbattery? Better missiles? Better air defenses?
Quote:

, supplemented by local ingenuity.
Ukrainians using commercial drones to drop hand grendades or small cluster munitions?

Quote:

If this strategy is working — again, a question I’m not competent to answer — Ukraine’s slow gains on the ground aren’t a good indication of what’s really happening. If the optimists are right, the real story is the gradual degradation of the stuff behind Russia’s lines — counter-battery radar, artillery pieces, command centers and so on.
Oh dear. AFAIK all of that stuff... command centers, air defense radar (i.e. Patriot missile systems, drone centers) are being destroyed on the Ukrainian side on a 10:1 basis relative to Russia.

Quote:

One notable thing about the Battle of the Atlantic is that the denouement was quite sudden. We now know that the Allies were gradually gaining the upper hand for many months before a sudden surge in U-boat losses forced the Germans to abandon their attacks.

Will there be a similar tipping point in Ukraine? I don’t know. But what we do know is that this war, like most modern wars, will be determined more by brains and open-mindedness than by tough-guy posturing.

The tough-guy posturing belongs to Zelenskiy and his band of merrie men.

Sounds like a lot of hot air and hopium: "We may not be winning the war in any conventional way, but our 'values' and our 'smarts' will see us through!"


Ukraine has had some successes locating and destroying local ammo and fuel dumps, and some success drone-striking some factories well inside Russia. (That optical plant springs to mind as a possible success) But I've heard about a lot more materiel, infrastructure, and command centers being destroyed on the Ukrainian side. I suppose the next phase will be Russia targeting American and British spy drones operating over the Black Sea, assuming things go that far, bc Russia has STILL been holding back.

Anyway, if Kiev doesn't have the advantage in conventional industrial warfare, their best option is to fight an unconventional or asymmetric one. That means either getting under/closing the gap between Russian troops and theirs (making Russian artillery, drones, etc unuseable); bringing in an as-yet-unseen new weapon; or resistance, sabotage, and terror attacks; or have NATO shift the fighting to another nation (eg. Syria) or another dimension (financial, political, etc.)

******

Meanwhile,in Ukraine

Quote:

Ukraine Commits Last Remaining Elite Brigade For Final Attempt
Simplicius The Thinker
Aug 16, 2023

Yesterday we had the first full confirmation that the last and most serious Ukrainian brigade, meant for the big offensive, has finally been committed to battle. As you know, from the Pentagon leaks we’ve had the full ORBATS of the 9 brigades of the so-called 9th Corps. All but the 82nd had already been committed and most were decimated.

The 82nd Air Assault brigade is an elite force which was entrusted with the British Challenger 2 tanks, American Stryker AFVs, and even German Marder IFVs. In fact, they were even rounded out with the British M119 light howitzer which makes them the only brigade out of the entire offensive supergroup to be armed entirely with modern Western/NATO arms and not a single legacy Soviet system.



I see I agree with Simplicious

Quote:

One thing to note is that, the 82nd is structured in a peculiar way compared to the other brigades. They appear to be the lightest and most mobile. This is due to every other brigade of the 9th Corps being distributed with the equivalent of two tank companies or perhaps a light tank battalion of about 30 tanks with 90 armored vehicles (AFV, IFV, ICV, AMV, APC, etc.). But the 82nd has a measly 14 x Challenger 2s but 90 Strykers + 40 Marders for a total of 130 capable lightly armored combat vehicles. Even their M119 light howitzers specialize in fast setup and mobility.

If you ask me, this is more dangerous as tanks have typically proven useless in the hands of the AFU as they’re merely sitting ducks. Ukraine does better with IFVs and MRAPs when they’re able to just race down field and overwhelm Russian defenses as they did in the Kharkov offensive last year. Also, the quick-moving IFVs/AFVs typically scatter Russian artillery defenses, making them less effective and depleting their ammo. In short, I see this brigade as more of a threat than the Leopard 2 heavy 47th, which was meant to be the other big ‘elite’ unit. Sure, 2 of the Strykers are already kaput but they’ve got 88 more and another 39 or so German Marders which were always touted as the best available IFVs in the world next to the Swedish CV-90.



MORE AT
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ukraine-commits-last-remaining-eli
te



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Friday, August 18, 2023 5:34 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Once upon a time I thought Paul Krugman was smart. Maybe he was. But's he's reduced himself to an inane blatherer of DNC/ neocon/ 'woke' orthodoxy.

Quote:

This was a major factor in the Allies’ 1943 victory in the Battle of the Atlantic, which secured the sea lanes to Britain; this in turn set the stage first for the decisive defeat of the Luftwaffe in early 1944, and then for D-Day.
Yeah, I'd still like to read an explanation for that. The sea lanes were secured by Navy ships convoying cargo ships. At some point, I presume that the Navy ships got the new-fangled microwave radar. But radar doesn't operate underwater, so it wouln't help ships detect subs, and it wouldn't help subs detect ships. So what does radar have to do with submarines? I thought subs operated on SONAR, and ships are NOISY and can be detected passively just by listening.

Germany had battleships and U-boat radio antennas that could not hide from radar. And German U-boats couldn't hide from High-frequency direction-finding. Those top-secret messages that were being decoded by the British code breakers were also the location beacons for the British sub-hunters:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Atlantic#High-frequency_di
rection-finding


The Germans, being who they were, didn't believe their coded messages could be read and didn't believe their radio antennas could be located and didn't believe they could lose a war since the German fighting spirit was invincible because Germans are real men, not like those British shopkeepers who can't fight. It turns out that the British realized they were either all dead or prisoners if they didn't become effective and competent warriors so the shopkeepers became what the UK needed. The Ukrainians are now in the same situation as the British once were. Either the Ukrainians become warriors or they die in the Russian prison Putin is constructing.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 19, 2023 4:13 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


A Russian-backed general admitted his troops "cannot win" against Ukraine and suggested freezing the current front line.

In a lengthy Telegram post on Thursday, Alexander Khodakovsky, who leads the Vostok Battalion fighting in southern Ukraine, predicted a stalemate between the two sides.

"Can we bring down Ukraine militarily? Now and in the near future, no," Khodakovsky said, according to a translation by the Kyiv Post.

"When I talk to myself about our destiny in this war, I mean that we will not crawl forward, like the [Ukrainians], turning everything into [destroyed] Bakhmuts in our path. And, I do not foresee the easy occupation of cities," he added.

Khodakovsky went on to say that he believes the war is entering a phase "of neither peace nor war."

https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/russian-backed-gener
al-admits-his-troops-cannot-win-against-ukraine-and-suggests-freezing-the-front-line-where-it-is/articleshow/102835591.cms


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 19, 2023 1:04 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Once upon a time I thought Paul Krugman was smart. Maybe he was. But's he's reduced himself to an inane blatherer of DNC/ neocon/ 'woke' orthodoxy.

Quote:

This was a major factor in the Allies’ 1943 victory in the Battle of the Atlantic, which secured the sea lanes to Britain; this in turn set the stage first for the decisive defeat of the Luftwaffe in early 1944, and then for D-Day.
Yeah, I'd still like to read an explanation for that. The sea lanes were secured by Navy ships convoying cargo ships. At some point, I presume that the Navy ships got the new-fangled microwave radar. But radar doesn't operate underwater, so it wouln't help ships detect subs, and it wouldn't help subs detect ships. So what does radar have to do with submarines? I thought subs operated on SONAR, and ships are NOISY and can be detected passively just by listening.

Germany had battleships and U-boat radio antennas that could not hide from radar. And German U-boats couldn't hide from High-frequency direction-finding. Those top-secret messages that were being decoded by the British code breakers were also the location beacons for the British sub-hunters:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Atlantic#High-frequency_di
rection-finding


The Germans, being who they were, didn't believe their coded messages could be read and didn't believe their radio antennas could be located and didn't believe they could lose a war since the German fighting spirit was invincible because Germans are real men, not like those British shopkeepers who can't fight. It turns out that the British realized they were either all dead or prisoners if they didn't become effective and competent warriors so the shopkeepers became what the UK needed. The Ukrainians are now in the same situation as the British once were. Either the Ukrainians become warriors or they die in the Russian prison Putin is constructing.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

I suppose that's AN explanation, but it still doesn't make sense.

The original artticle says... "The Rad Lab arguably had an even bigger impact on the course of the war than the Manhattan Project, because it turned microwave technology, originally developed in Britain, into a radar system that German submarines couldn’t detect."

So what? German U -boats couldn't detect radar, but they could still detect SHIPS, bc ships are NOISY. And low frequencies carry well in water, whereas early radar couln't see over-the-horizon (which IIRC is 3 miles). Were they that stupid that, having detected a ship nearby (by sound), they would continue to loiter on the surface long enough for a ship to trundle its way over to their position and start dropping depth charges?

BTW I find it improbable that early radar could detect a radio antenna strictly as a piece of metal. Even current radar has a limit of detection for small objects. I suppose you're referring to radar being able to detect German U-boat radio TRANSMISSIONS, since they both operate in the radio frequency range. But, having detected a transmission, I assume that the best way to actually pick up the radio transmission signal would be radio antenna, since they're more efficient.

Not to belabor the point further, but something seems to be missing from the explanation. I can't fill in the pieces bc the only thing I know about WWII submarine technology is from WWII movies.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, August 19, 2023 1:14 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Not to belabor the point further, but something seems to be missing from the explanation. I can't fill in the pieces bc the only thing I know about WWII submarine technology is from WWII movies.

You could quadruple your knowledge by reading two paragraphs:

Leigh Light
Detection by radar-equipped aircraft could suppress U-boat activity over a wide area, but an aircraft attack could only be successful with good visibility. U-boats were relatively safe from aircraft at night for two reasons: 1) radar then in use could not detect them at less than 1 mile (1.6 km); 2) flares deployed to illuminate any attack gave adequate warning for evasive manoeuvres. The introduction of the Leigh Light by the British in January 1942 solved the second problem, thereby becoming a significant factor in the Battle for the Atlantic. Developed by RAF officer H. Leigh, it was a powerful and controllable searchlight mounted primarily to Wellington bombers and B-24 Liberators. These aircraft first made contact with enemy submarines using air-to-surface-vessel (ASV) radar. Then, about a 1 mile (1.6 km) from the target, the Leigh Light would be switched on. It immediately and accurately illuminated the enemy, giving U-boat commanders less than 25 seconds to react before they were attacked with depth charges. The first confirmed kill using this technology was U-502 on July 5, 1942.[67]

The Leigh Light enabled the British to attack enemy subs on the surface at night, forcing German and Italian commanders to remain underwater especially when coming into port at sub bases in the Bay of Biscay.[67] U-boat commanders who survived such attacks reported a particular fear of this weapon system since aircraft could not be seen at night, and the noise of an approaching aircraft was inaudible above the din of the sub's engines. Subsequently, the common practice of surfacing at night to recharge batteries and refresh air was mostly abandoned as it was safer to perform these tasks during daylight hours when enemy planes could be spotted. A drop in Allied shipping losses from 600,000 to 200,000 tons per month was attributed to this device.[68]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Atlantic#Leigh_Light



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 19, 2023 1:14 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the “Vostok” battalion defending near Urozhaine, complained that Russian forces are not deploying additional reserves and artillery battalions to the area.[3] Khodakovsky claimed that the “Vostok” battalion is fighting for Urozhaine with all available forces but that the forces operating in the area are exhausted and suffering losses.


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-august-14-2023
quoting a report from the neocon Institute for the Study of War

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, August 19, 2023 1:16 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So it was detection of U-boats by AIRCRAFT.

You could have skipped the bit about the new searchlight.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, August 19, 2023 1:25 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Seeing as how western medai likes to take literal snippets of lengthy speehces or posts, and extrapolate one word or phrase beyond credibility, this is Khodakovsky's whole Telegram post, machine-translated..


Quote:

Can we topple Ukraine militarily? Not now and in the short term. When I talk to myself about our victory in this war, I do not mean that we will crawl, like them, forward, turning everything into bakhmuts in our path. And I don't envisage an easy occupation of cities.... We will enter the phase that is most disadvantageous to Ukraine in its "independent" state: the phase of neither peace nor war. We could find ourselves in this phase if, instead of the NWO, we recognized the territories and officially took them under guardianship. But that would be a very different twist on history....

In our reality, which has already taken place, things will come to a "truce". We began to have certain processes in the economy caused by the increased workload, but on the whole we withstood and caught the balance. We are balancing - not without it - but we are walking a tightrope. Remember the crisis of the eighth year, which was called the crisis of the banking system? Then only one bank collapsed, launching the domino principle, and we experienced a lot of bad things in a fairly short period of time. Now there is systematic pressure, but although we are warming up, we are holding on.

With Ukraine, everything will be different. If in Russia we do not allow the internal situation to shake up, then with all our sores, our survivability is very high. Ukraine, on the other hand, is a completely different "physics". Both economically and politically is a construct that cannot survive on its own. Therefore, the project of independent Ukraine was not realized, turning into a project: "under whom to lie down." Unfortunately, the elites focused on Western money defeated the elites who wanted to milk Russia. Now the West gives mainly what can only bring destruction. When you read about the next help, you see there is not money that can be sawn, but iron that needs to be disposed of. You won't make much money on this. Therefore, at the exit from the upcoming phase, we will most likely face a global redistribution of Ukraine.



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, August 19, 2023 1:33 PM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Bolton: Biden's policy towards Ukraine only delaying Kyiv's inevitable defeat to Russia:
In other words, Ukraine is losing.

K2PO: What were Bolton's actual words, where he said that?


*****

QUOTE:
Quote:

"Ukraine’s offensive failures and Russia’s defensive successes"


Russia is succeeding and Ukraine is failing. Sounds like defeat to me!






Putin's right-hand man threatens nuclear apocalypse and 'direct confrontation' with NATO

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-right-hand-man-threatens-
nuclear-apocalypse-and-direct-confrontation-with-nato/ar-AA1ftYYZ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=486af8369b3c4301a14c4560edcb9d77&ei=100




Sounds desperate to me comrade.

T


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Saturday, August 19, 2023 2:57 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by THG:
Quote:



Putin's right-hand man threatens nuclear apocalypse and 'direct confrontation' with NATO

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-right-hand-man-threatens-
nuclear-apocalypse-and-direct-confrontation-with-nato/ar-AA1ftYYZ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=486af8369b3c4301a14c4560edcb9d77&ei=100






So I'm gonna ask the same question that K2PO asked: What were his (Lavrov's) exact words? Bc, like SECOND's M$M blather, your sources like to misquote/ extrapolate/ spin beyond all credibility.

So, from the article you yourself linked

Quote:

said in an interview for the state-owned magazine The International Affairs, published on the Foreign Ministry website: "The possession of nuclear arms is today the only possible response to some of the significant external threats to the security of our country."

Putin's right-hand man also warned NATO allies are risking "a situation of direct armed confrontation of nuclear powers".

He further warned: "We believe such a development should be prevented. That's why we have to remind about the existence of high military and political risks and send sobering signals to our opponents."



This is just a reiteration of Russia's nuclear posture. AND A WARNING that if the west continues on its escalation path, NATO forces and Russian forces will be fighting DIRECTLY against each other. For example, Ukraine gets F-16s, but its runways aren't fit for F-16s. So they take off from Poland or Romania. Does Russia then bomb Polish or Romanian runways to interdict? If so, what then?

The MSN headline sounds desperate to me comrade.



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, August 19, 2023 6:20 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
So it was detection of U-boats by AIRCRAFT.

You could have skipped the bit about the new searchlight.

Day or night, British ships and aircraft located U-boats with radar and high-frequency direction-finding (both newly invented or vastly improved), but that only gets the British within about a mile of the U-boat. The last few feet are guided by sight, either day or night. At night, the Brits needed the Leigh Lights. Signym, once again you fail to grasp even the simplest facts about killing people efficiently, without squandering ammo. Both the Russians and Ukrainians waste hundreds of artillery shells per kill because neither knows what they are doing. Both are about as inefficient as possible without killing themselves accidentally more frequently than their enemies. The Ukrainian War is truly the battle of Dumb vs Dumber.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 19, 2023 6:31 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


No, I got that point,that's why you didn't have to beat it to death

But I think you don't get the point about war
War isn't about killing "people" unless you're waging a genocidal war where you plan to replace the people living there (eg the American west), or you're fighting against a guerilla force supported by the local population).

AFAIK conventional wars are about killing enemy soldiers and destroying enemy weaponry enough to cripple their military action.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, August 19, 2023 6:41 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Is Rabotyna going to become another Bakhmut? Listening to Military Summary Channel, the names comes up over and over again as a series of costly failures by the Ukrainian military to take this small, abandoned hamlet.

Where Ukraine is making progress is Uruzhonoya (sp?). Based on the pre-positioning of tank battalions in the area, Dima is expecting that Kiev will aim for a broad-front victory in the area in time for Ukrainian independence day.

Elsewhere AFAIK Kiev is at an expensive standstill or losing ground.




-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, August 19, 2023 7:07 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
No, I got that point,that's why you didn't have to beat it to death

But I think you don't get the point about war
War isn't about killing "people" unless you're waging a genocidal war where you plan to replace the people living there (eg the American west), or you're fighting against a guerilla force supported by the local population).

AFAIK conventional wars are about killing enemy soldiers and destroying enemy weaponry enough to cripple their military action.

I assume you are unaware that the Allies in WWII targeted civilians, killing far more of them than soldiers. Nuking Japan was the ultimate example of efficiently killing civilians to motivate surrender by the authorities. Russia went to the next level by killing two million German civilians AFTER the authorities surrendered. Russians deny they did what they did, which is absurd behavior but the same as what Russians are doing in Ukraine.

Russians killing civilians, today: "Horrified by news of today’s daytime attack on the historic center of Chernihiv. Innocent men, women, and children enjoying a beautiful Saturday - a holiday in Ukraine - should never end up killed or wounded."
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/19/7416268/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 19, 2023 8:47 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I was aware. I've mentioned Dresden more than once. Also, Hiroshima and Nagasaki were militarily unimportant. There was also the bombing of London that was supposed to demoralize the Brits, but didn't.

Bu targeting civilian centers is a WAR CRIME. Are you supporting war crimes?

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, August 19, 2023 9:18 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I was aware. I've mentioned Dresden more than once. Also, Hiroshima and Nagasaki were militarily unimportant. There was also the bombing of London that was supposed to demoralize the Brits, but didn't.

Bu targeting civilian centers is a WAR CRIME. Are you supporting war crimes?

It is self-evident that humans have not yet learned an adequate moral code. A moral code is not for scoring bonus points with God or getting a high letter grade from 21st Century moral philosophers, none of whom can create that code. If I told you what a moral code is for, I'd become just another in a long line of failed philosophers confused about even the definition of failure.

A list of 21st Century moral philosophers.
https://www.google.com/search?q=a+list+of+21st+century+moral+philosoph
ers


In the distant future, when an adequate moral code is finally agreed upon by humans, I'd expect nothing Russia did in Ukraine will be judged as moral. If there are Russians in the future, I expect they still won't care about that moral code because whatever terrible things they do are always moral in their own judgment, Q.E.D.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, August 20, 2023 2:51 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


SECOND is an idiot. QED.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Sunday, August 20, 2023 5:20 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SECOND is an idiot. QED.

There is the little thing the Russians have about threatening to nuke the world if Russians don't get what they want in Ukraine. Then there is the second thing about Russians murdering 4 million Ukrainians. And Russians murdering 64 million Russians. And then Russians have amnesia about all the murders they committed. I really love that Russians claim they are moral people since North Korea loves Russia and copies the threat to nuke the world if North Korea doesn't get what it wants. Moral Philosopher Derek Parfit edges toward condemning Russia' and North Korea's behavior of murdering people by the millions:

Inconclusive Conclusions from On What Matters, Volume Three by Derek Parfit:

What now matters most is how we respond to various risks to the survival of humanity. We are creating some of these risks, and we are discovering how we could respond to these and other risks. If we reduce these risks, and humanity survives the next few centuries, our descendants or successors could end these risks by spreading through this galaxy.

Life can be wonderful as well as terrible, and we shall increasingly have the power to make life good. Since human history may be only just beginning, we can expect that future humans, or supra­humans, may achieve some great goods that we cannot now even imagine. In Nietzsche’s words, there has never been such a new dawn and clear horizon, and such an open sea.

If we are the only rational beings in the Universe, as some recent evidence suggests, it matters even more whether we shall have descendants or successors during the billions of years in which that would be possible. Some of our successors might live lives and create worlds that, though failing to justify past suffering, would have given us all, including those who suffered most, reasons to be glad that the Universe exists.

https://uchv.princeton.edu/news/remembering-derek-parfit

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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