REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Thursday, January 30, 2025 08:21
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Monday, January 27, 2025 5:53 AM

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The Witches of Bucha, the exclusively female war volunteer unit: "I can't kill people, but the Russians are vermin"

Thousands of Ukrainian women are starting to serve in the anti-aircraft defense of the main cities of Ukraine

By ALBERTO ROJAS | 01/27/2025 - 03:46 ET

https://www.mundoamerica.com/news/2025/01/27/679747fbfc6c83712f8b4577.
html


Do you think you could kill someone with your weapon?

"I have thought about it a lot. I could never kill people, but I think the Russians are vermin. We are in Bucha and we all saw what they did here."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, January 27, 2025 12:28 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

We are in Bucha and we all saw what they did here.


No, hon. You were not an eyewitness, and neither were "all" of the people that you reference. You, personally, didn't see shit. What YOU "saw" was Kiev's propaganda, and you believed it.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Tuesday, January 28, 2025 5:53 AM

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Trump Still Doesn’t Understand the Ukraine War
And in his eagerness to cut a deal to end it, he may give Putin the lifeline he so desperately needs.

By Garry Kasparov | Jan 27, 2025

Putin’s regime is now predicated on the domination of Ukraine by Russia and its annihilation as a sovereign, Western-oriented nation. I didn’t make this up—just take a look at Russian state propaganda, or official government policy. The official line is that Ukraine should not exist.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_
Ukrainians
This was Putin’s policy before the full-scale invasion of February 2022 and it will remain his policy even if he agrees to a temporary ceasefire. There are only two possible ends to a war in which the aggressor is committed to the destruction of its opponent: a victory for the aggressor or the destruction of the aggressor. These are the only possible outcomes in Ukraine. Either the Ukrainian nation will cease to exist as we know it or Russia will lose and the Putin regime will fall. Any ceasefires, temporary retreats, or pauses are merely stages on the way to one of these final outcomes.

Appeasement is not a way to end the conflict, and any public relations victory it would produce for Trump would be fleeting. History tells us that appeasement is the greatest fuel for continued war. Negotiations can only work if the administration is willing to walk away.

. . . based on the testimony of Trump’s cabinet nominees in their confirmation hearings, the officials who will be managing America’s involvement do not understand the underlying dynamics—namely, that Putin’s hold on power is synonymous with continued war. Perhaps Secretary of State Marco Rubio, given his experience and previously voiced views, understands this, but, if so, he is afraid to say it.

America must stand up to Putin. If you think defeating Russia is expensive, it’s far cheaper than the trillions that will be required should Ukraine fall. If Putin is allowed to win in Ukraine, he will only move on to other targets and the price will keep going up. Putin made clear before the full-scale invasion that he sees his war in Ukraine as part of a larger political and military struggle against the West, especially the United States. The Biden administration never acknowledged this reality, but neither has Trump, at least not yet.

A victory for Putin means, in due time, a re-charting of the entire map of Europe, to suit his vision of a Russian empire that never lost the Cold War.

More at https://www.thebulwark.com/p/bad-things-happened-trump-still-doesnt-un
derstand-ukraine-war-putin-deal-davos


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, January 28, 2025 7:47 AM

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Russia’s Year of Truth: The Missing Military Hardware

In the last of a series of three pieces, Pavel Luzin goes behind the curtain of Russia's military-industrial complex to expose the weapons crisis in Vladimir Putin’s military.

By Pavel Luzin | Jan 22, 2025

Russia is struggling to increase arms production against a tide of permanently growing costs and a shortage of human and financial resources. Without a ceasefire, the Kremlin will face deeper imbalances in its domestic political economy and become strategically weaker.

2025 will be the last year Russia can rely on its massive stockpiles of Soviet-era conventional arms, including artillery, main battle tanks and armored vehicles.

If the intensity of combat, and consequent Russian losses, follow the same pattern as 2022–2024, most stockpiles will be exhausted by the second half of the year, forcing Moscow to rely on newly manufactured arms rather than repaired and modernized ones.

More at https://cepa.org/article/russias-year-of-truth-the-missing-military-ha
rdware
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 29, 2025 6:20 AM

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Heavy losses don’t mean the Russians are losing the war

By David Axe | Jan 28, 2025, 09:16pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/28/a-lone-pickup-truck-t
agged-along-as-russian-troops-mounted-yet-another-failed-assault-in-kursk-ukrainian-drones-blew-up-the-pickup-last
/

Russian marines and paratroopers are rolling their precious armored vehicles at Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast in western Russia—and running headlong into the Ukrainian army’s elite 47th Mechanized Brigade and its American-made M-2 fighting vehicles.

The result, so far, is a growing pile of smoldering wreckage. “Russians desperately trying to liberate Kursk Oblast and suffering huge losses,” according to Kriegsforscher, a Ukrainian marine corps drone operator whose team has been defending the same sector as the 47th Mechanized Brigade.

Incredibly, that doesn’t mean Russia is losing its wider war on Ukraine as the conflict grinds into its fourth year. Ukraine may not be sending as many hard-to-replace vehicles on nearly suicidal missions, but it’s still got profound problems of its own along the 800-mile front line.

A three-day assault starting on Jan. 18, led by the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade and 234th Air Assault Regiment left behind 14 wrecked BMP and BMD fighting vehicles and three T-80 tanks. A separate assault on or just before Tuesday involving at least four tanks and fighting vehicles—and a pickup truck—ended in the destruction of most or all of the vehicles.

A fast-moving Ukrainian force invaded Kursk in August, capturing what is now a 250-square-mile salient around the town of Sudzha. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin initially gave his forces, and their North Korean reinforcements, until February to eject the Ukrainians. But despite holding a 60,000-to-20,000 manpower advantage over the Ukrainians in Kursk, the Russians and North Koreans have made only marginal gains around the salient.

The growing heap of charred wreckage accumulating around Nikolskii, one of the villages the 47th Mechanized Brigade garrisons on the western edge of the salient, speaks to the Russians’ failure.

The fighting on Tuesday was typical. A Russian assault group riding in up-armored fighting vehicles and tanks—and that one pickup—rolled toward Ukrainian positions in broad daylight along the same roads they’ve always traveled in their botched attempts to roll up the Kursk salient.

Surveillance drones spotted the assault group. Explosive first-person-view drones got some of the Russian vehicles. The 47th Mechanized Brigade’s M-2s hit others with their fast-firing 25-millimeter autocannons. Bomb-dropping drones swooped in to clean up the stragglers. In the process, they bombed the pickup.

“Aren’t they sick and tired?” Kriegsforscher asked. “I really do not understand the point of attacking at the [same] place where they attack for the third month.” At the same time, the drone operator conceded that the Russians have made some gains—however slight—on the edges of the salient. “They continue fighting and advancing.”

But Russian and North Korean losses are unsustainable by any reasonable measure. Ukrainian officials claimed 30,000 Russians have been killed and wounded in Kursk. As many as 4,000 North Koreans have reportedly become casualties in the oblast, including some high-ranking officers. The Russians are losing so many armored vehicles in Kursk that regiments and brigades in other sectors of the front line now routinely attack in civilian compact cars.

Escalating losses are driving deep dysfunction in the battered Russian military. The Kremlin may be hoping that Ukrainian dysfunction is even worse—and it may be right.

The best and longest-serving Ukrainian brigades are desperate for fresh infantry, and yet leaders in Kyiv have assigned thousands of new recruits to newly formed brigades lacking experienced leaders and effective support units. Two of the new brigades have disintegrated, exposing their few intact sub-units to murderous Russian firepower—and getting a lot of green troops needlessly hurt or killed.

It’s a race to the bottom for both armies. The Russians are expending their last mechanized reserves for gains of a few yards. The Ukrainians are holding them off, and bleeding them pale, with under-manned brigades that—lacking access to fresh troops—shrink in size with every casualty they suffer.

Given the competing dynamics, the big question is: which army will collapse first?


Sources:
https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1881715106549280781
https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1880619725983732154
https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1881009974970896599
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1884269950241501331
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5
O5jWMTE&ll=51.30560037261048%2C35.210289115258426&z=15

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5
O5jWMTE&ll=51.308699044057995%2C35.23721849376795&z=12


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 29, 2025 6:23 AM

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A senior NATO official acknowledged that Russia is escalating a sabotage and destabilization campaign against European NATO member states to deter further military assistance to Ukraine. NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai stated at the European Parliament on January 28 that NATO states have faced acts of sabotage in recent years, including train derailments, arson, attacks against politicians' property, and assassination plots against defense industry figures, including a Kremlin plot to assassinate Rheinmetall Head Armin Papperger.[18] Appathurai emphasized that the Kremlin aims to "create disquiet to undermine support for Ukraine" and called for NATO states to more assertively deter Russian sabotage acts.[19] The Kremlin has consistently attempted to use information operations to deter Western states from providing additional military assistance to Ukraine.[20] The Kremlin's sabotage and destabilization campaign directly targeting NATO states supports ISW's assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin sees Russia as waging a hybrid war directly against NATO.[21]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-28-2025


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 29, 2025 6:24 AM

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The U.S. military transferred around 90 Patriot air defense interceptors from storage in Israel to Poland this week in order to deliver them to Ukraine.

This is the most significant delivery of weapons from Israel to Ukraine since the Russian invasion.

https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/us-patriot-missiles-ukraine-israel

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 29, 2025 7:37 AM

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EU lets in Russian LNG

By Victor Jack and Koen Verhelst | January 29, 2025 4:35 am CET

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-lets-russian-gas-slip-again-in-new-
sanctions-package
/

The proposal will not include a blanket prohibition of LNG imports, as EU hawks have been urging. Instead, it would only stop Russian LNG from going to EU terminals not connected to the EU’s gas system — a restriction that won’t affect the majority of LNG imports.

New data shows the EU slurped up record volumes of LNG from Russia last month. Last year, Moscow’s LNG exports to the EU rose by almost 20 percent from 2023, according to a report out Tuesday.

Additionally, the new offering will push to restrict Moscow's aluminum exports, according to the three diplomats. The EU still relies on Russia for around 6 percent of its aluminum imports.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 29, 2025 9:07 AM

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Ukraine struggles with troop shortages amid Western pressure

Ukraine has Western weapons, equipment, and ammunition, but the problem is the decreasing number of people willing to fight for the country, Ukrainian experts warn. "This is the essence of the crisis, a social problem, and changing the generals commanding on the front will not change it," said Evhen Dykyi, a veteran of the war with Russia.

By Tomasz Molga | 7:33 AM EST, January 29, 2025

https://conflictwatcher.com/ukraine-struggles-with-troop-shortages-ami
d-western-pressure,7119439132006017a


In 2022, many were ready to fight, but there was a lack of weapons. Now the situation has reversed. "There are weapons, but fewer willing to fight," said veteran and military analyst Evhen Dykyi in the Vechir.LIVE program. His statement was discussed on Tuesday by Ukrainian media, including the Unian agency.

"Partners are ready to supply us with equipment, but they may consider that we have too few people ready to fight," the Ukrainian veteran noted. "Moreover, they are partially aware of this. They're already asking: You keep asking for more weapons, but who will use them? Equipment deliveries are a matter for the West, and our responsibility is mobilization," he added.

Dykyi is a well-known Ukrainian military analyst, commentator, and veteran of the war with Russia. Referring to the gradual withdrawal of Ukrainian forces in the Donbas section, he said that the key issue for the entire front is ensuring reserves. "Mobilization, actions in the rear of the front are the essence of the crisis we have found ourselves in. Changing the generals commanding on the front will not change this," he added.

He also clearly referred to the recent decision of President Volodymyr Zelensky, who entrusted the command of a dramatically difficult defense section near Pokrovske to General Mykhailo Drapaty. The decision surprises experts because Gen. Drapaty is supposed to manage the battle and simultaneously remain the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces. This is the third decision to change the commander in the region within a year.

Ukraine under mobilization pressure; Polish tourist approached

Martial law in Ukraine has been extended, and conscription is ongoing. It includes all men aged 25 to 60 and volunteers aged 18 to 25. There is growing controversy around the actions of Territorial Recruitment Center employees, who stop men in public places: bars, gyms, on the street. We reported that around 100 TRC employees and police officers appeared at a concert in Kyiv to pick out conscripts from the audience.

This pressure has changed the country. On the streets of cities, you practically don't see middle-aged men unless they're in uniforms. Civilians stay home, fearing arrest. "During my last trip, I was checked six times on the street. If I didn't have my passport, I would have been detained under the pretext of evading the army," says Borys Tynka, a Pole and tourist guide in Odesa.

People don't want to talk about the war. Any mention of it causes divisions and arguments. Particularly sharply, there is talk of the possible draft of boys aged 18-25. I haven't met anyone who would support it," Tynka adds. "However, I talked to several mothers who, just in case, sent their sons abroad. They wouldn't change that decision for anything."

Pressure to lower mobilization age

Western countries are putting pressure on Ukraine, demanding the lowering of the mobilization age. National Security Advisor to President Trump, Mike Waltz, suggested that the lower age limit should be 18. According to him, such a decision could help stabilize the situation on the front because Ukraine faces serious personnel shortages.

President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to these suggestions, emphasizing that mobilizing more people without providing better armaments would not have the desired effect. He considered it "unfair" on the part of the West to simultaneously limit the supply of long-range weapons and pressure Ukraine on mobilizing young people.

An appeal titled "Don’t Pressure Ukraine To Feed Its Youth Into the Mouth of Russia’s War Machine" was even published by the opposition English-language service The Moscow Times. "By urging Ukraine to conscript 18-year-olds, the West risks a tragic gamble: sacrificing a generation to buy time for Europe's awakening and NATO's hesitation. Demographers have also raised red flags. Ella Libanova, director of Ukraine’s Institute of Demography, warns that lowering the draft age would cause a demographic crisis in the future," the commentary stated.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 29, 2025 9:07 AM

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Don’t Pressure Ukraine To Feed Its Youth Into the Mouth of Russia’s War Machine

By Elena Davlikanova | Jan. 22, 2025

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/01/22/dont-pressure-ukraine-to-fee
d-its-youth-into-the-mouth-of-russias-war-machine-a87698


By urging Ukraine to conscript 18-year-olds, the West risks a tragic gamble: sacrificing a generation to buy time for Europe's awakening and NATO's hesitation.

Mike Waltz, Donald Trump’s pick for National Security Advisor, recently suggested that Ukraine should lower the draft age from 26 to 18. Framing this as a call for Ukraine to "be all in for democracy," he neglected the obvious irony: while Washington asks Kyiv for its youngest, it sends just enough weapons to prolong the fight but never enough to end it decisively.

The call is in line with the Biden administration approach, which had been met with widespread resistance in Ukraine earlier. Last year Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Advisor, claimed Ukraine’s battlefield struggles stem from a lack of manpower, not weapons. This ignores the hard truth: Ukraine’s manpower crisis is a direct result of the “too little too late” approach.

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko pointed out that mobilizing 18-year-olds offers little military advantage. “This age group is too small in size and too young for the brutal psychological demands of war,” he explains. Demographers have also raised red flags. Ella Libanova, director of Ukraine’s Institute of Demography, warns that lowering the draft age would cause a demographic crisis in the future.

Losing the 18-to-25-year-old age group, already one of Ukraine’s smallest due to declining birth rates, is a demographic time bomb set to explode long after the guns fall silent. Such a suggestion puts Ukraine at risk of becoming a hollow shell of a nation.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has been clear about the issue: “The focus should be on missiles and reducing Russia’s military potential, not on sending more of our youth to die.”

He is right. Ukrainians should not send fresh meat to Russia’s guns under increasingly nebulous promises of support.

But the real kicker is not that Ukraine is reluctant to draft its youth. It is the West’s failure to deliver what is truly needed. Ukraine has received less than half of the $177 billion the U.S. allocated to support Kyiv during the full-scale war, Zelensky revealed in an interview with U.S. podcaster Lex Fridman.

The West’s approach to Ukraine is as shortsighted as it is hypocritical. By holding back Moscow, Ukraine is giving the West time to wake up, rearm, rebuild, and rethink its relationship with Russia and its allies. But Ukrainian blood is not infinite, so bold decisions need to be made quickly. Realizing this harsh reality, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, warned that Europe has just five years to revive its defense industries or prepare to learn Russian.

What Ukraine truly needs is not another round of increasingly younger casualties but decisive action to secure its skies. Russia’s massive Jan. 15 missile and drone attack on Ukraine prompted Poland to scramble fighter jets to protect its airspace. Direct involvement in intercepting Russian missiles over Ukraine’s western border is long overdue.

While well-trained and propaganda-driven North Korean soldiers are actively engaging Ukrainian forces — with some already captured — discussions introduced by France and Poland about European boots on the ground have fallen silent. The hope for an internal coup in the Kremlin or another deus ex machina that ends the war has never materialized, now being substituted by overheated hopes to end the war fast. If negotiations fail, as with the more than 200 rounds of Ukraine-Russian peace talks since 2014, an urgent injection of fresh Ukrainian blood might not save the day.

After enduring prolonged restrictions on the use of Western-supplied weaponry — restrictions influenced by fears and electoral calculations — some have been finally lifted, marking a pivotal change in Ukraine's one-arm-tied fight. The "triple-tap" attack tactic, combining drones to distract Russian air defenses, followed by missile strikes and concluding with precision UAV attacks, is very effective at undermining Russia’s capabilities to attack Ukraine.

Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's official Center Against Disinformation, said that these attacks, utilizing British Storm Shadow cruise missiles and American ATACMS long-range rockets, have significantly damaged Russian infrastructure, including weapons manufacturing facilities, oil refineries and storage warehouses. But overly cautious restrictions on what Ukraine was allowed to do with those weapons meant they had not given Kyiv the advantage they could have.

More Western sanctions against Russia, especially its oil and banking sectors, is a further pillar of defeating Russia. An analysis by the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission of 2,500 components in Russian weapons revealed that a significant portion — 64% — originated from U.S.-based companies, making the United States the largest supplier of electronic components to the Russian war machine. Additionally, numerous components were sourced from European countries, including Switzerland, the Netherlands, Germany and Sweden, highlighting sanctions evasion.

Implementing these and other decisive and timely measures is far more effective against Russian aggression than deploying inexperienced yesterday’s schoolchildren to the front lines. As Zelensky emphasized, "The goal should be to save as many lives as possible, not to preserve weapons in stockpiles." If the West fails to grasp this, it risks sacrificing not only Ukraine's youth but also the very ideals of democracy and human dignity it professes to uphold.

What will happen if this cynical strategy fails? Another 15 million Ukrainians could flee to Europe, joining the 10 million already displaced. Chillingly, Russian troops would likely follow.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 30, 2025 8:20 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


If You Think the U.S. Will Abandon Ukraine Now, You Don't Know Donald Trump

Published Jan 29, 2025 at 9:49 AM EST

By Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian
Lester Crown Professor at Yale School of Management; Research Director at Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute

https://www.newsweek.com/if-you-think-us-will-abandon-ukraine-now-you-
dont-know-donald-trump-opinion-2022859


President Donald Trump's recent apparent switch of positions regarding Russia and Ukraine is surprising many, but it shouldn't. We write this not as diplomats or historians, but as informed leadership scholars who have known Trump personally for decades; and having recently spent time on the ground in Ukraine, Central Europe, and Central Asia, we believe there are good reasons for Trump to reverse his position and escape Russian President Vladimir Putin's quicksand.

In a startling flurry of Truth Social posts and press conference remarks since taking office, Trump has revealed his pragmatism over principle. After once condemning President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine, he now praises Zelensky as a seeker of peace. Similarly, Trump has flipped from expressing admiration for Putin to declaring that Putin is destroying Russia. To diplomatic scholars, this is a paradox. To leadership scholars, Trump's reversals demonstrate the consistency of his character. That is because of three distinctive qualities of Trump's leadership style.

Much more at https://www.newsweek.com/if-you-think-us-will-abandon-ukraine-now-you-
dont-know-donald-trump-opinion-2022859


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 30, 2025 8:21 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Putin continues efforts to coerce US President Donald Trump into bilateral negotiations that exclude Ukraine, impose his desired negotiation framework on Trump, and compel Trump to inadvertently endorse ongoing Russian information operations about the illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government. Putin's January 28 statements are part of a continued effort to position himself as Trump's equal and reinforce his long-held belief that Russia is the great-power heir to the Soviet Union.[14] Putin's statements also set conditions for Russia to violate any future peace agreements with Ukraine that Trump may hope to mediate and are yet another indication that Putin is not interested in compromising on his demands of complete regime change and the crippling of Ukraine's military as conditions for peace.[15] Putin's efforts to strongarm Trump are also part of a concerted Russian effort to force the West to acknowledge and endorse Russian information operations about the illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government and an enduring Ukrainian state. ISW previously noted that Western acquiescence to all of Russia's demands in Ukraine would require the West to acknowledge and agree that the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate and that a Ukrainian identity and state independent from Russia either does not currently exist and/or does not deserve to exist in the future.[16]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-29-2025


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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