Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Tuesday, August 19, 2025 11:04
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Saturday, August 16, 2025 9:34 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Trump Has No Cards

Why would Putin need to make a deal with him?

By Anne Applebaum | August 16, 2025, 10:50 AM ET

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/08/trump-putin-ukraine-
talks/683899/

President Donald Trump berated President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office. He allowed the Pentagon twice to halt prearranged military shipments to Ukraine. He promised that when the current tranche of armaments runs out, there will be no more. He has cut or threatened to cut the U.S. funds that previously supported independent Russian-language media and opposition. His administration is slowly, quietly easing sanctions on Russia, ending “basic sanctions and export control actions that had maintained and increased U.S. pressure,” according to a Senate-minority report. “Every month he’s spent in office without action has strengthened Putin’s hand, weakened ours and undermined Ukraine’s own efforts to bring an end to the war,” Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Elizabeth Warren wrote in a joint statement.

Many of these changes have gone almost unremarked on in the United States. But they are widely known in Russia. The administration’s attacks on Zelensky, Europeans, and Voice of America have been celebrated on Russian television. Of course Vladimir Putin knows about the slow lifting of sanctions. As a result, the Russian president has clearly made a calculation: Trump, to use the language he once hurled at Zelensky, has no cards.

Trump does say that he wants to end the war in Ukraine, and sometimes he also says that he is angry that Putin doesn’t. But if the U.S. is not willing to use any economic, military, or political tools to help Ukraine, if Trump will not put any diplomatic pressure on Putin or any new sanctions on Russian resources, then the U.S. president’s fond wish to be seen as a peacemaker can be safely ignored. No wonder all of Trump’s negotiating deadlines for Russia have passed, to no effect, and no wonder the invitation to Anchorage produced no result.

There is not much else to say about yesterday’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, other than to observe the intertwining elements of tragedy and farce. It was embarrassing for Americans to welcome a notorious wanted war criminal on their territory. It was humiliating to watch an American president act like a happy puppy upon encountering the dictator of a much poorer, much less important state, treating him as a superior. It’s excruciating to imagine how badly Trump’s diplomatic envoy, Steve Witkoff, an amateur out of his depth, misunderstood his last meeting with Putin in Moscow if he thought that the Alaska summit was going to be successful. It’s ominous that Trump now says he doesn’t want to push for a cease-fire but instead for peace negotiations, because the latter formula gives Putin time to keep killing Ukrainians. It’s strange that Russian reports of the meeting focused on business cooperation. “Russian-American business and investment partnership has huge potential,” Putin said today.

I appreciate that many Ukrainians, Europeans, and of course Americans are relieved that Trump didn’t announce something worse. He didn’t call for Ukrainian capitulation, or for Ukraine to cede territory. Unless there are secret protocols, perhaps some business deals, that we haven’t yet learned about, Anchorage will probably not be remembered as one of history’s crime scenes, a new Munich Conference, or a Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. But that’s a very low bar to reach.

The better way to understand Anchorage is not as the start of something new, but as the culmination of a longer process. As the U.S. dismantles its foreign-policy tools, as this administration fires the people who know how to use them, our ability to act with any agility will diminish. From the Treasury Department to the U.S. Agency for Global Media, from the State Department to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, agency after agency is being undermined, deliberately or accidentally, by political appointees who are unqualified, craven, or hostile to their own mission.

The U.S. has no cards because we’ve been giving them away. If we ever want to play them again, we will have to win them back: Arm Ukraine, expand sanctions, stop the lethal drone swarms, break the Russian economy, and win the war. Then there will be peace.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, August 16, 2025 10:10 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Trump Has No Cards

Why would Putin need to make a deal with him?

Annie is right, but it has nothing to do with Trump.

Between deindustrialization and our high-profit model of military weaponry, plus our multi-front, delusional "full spectrum dominance" ambitions, we don't have weapons to spare.

What does it take to be a realist around here???

End of story, case closed.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

THGR claims I have no morels, and he's absolutely right.

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Sunday, August 17, 2025 12:01 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Here's your realism:

1. Fuck Ukraine.

2. Nobody cares.

That's been the truth since the genesis of this thread.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, August 17, 2025 7:54 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Trump Has No Cards

Why would Putin need to make a deal with him?

Annie is right, but it has nothing to do with Trump.

Between deindustrialization and our high-profit model of military weaponry, plus our multi-front, delusional "full spectrum dominance" ambitions, we don't have weapons to spare.

What does it take to be a realist around here???

End of story, case closed.

Signym, you are insane. Or just an overly articulate ignoramus. The USA has NOT been "deindustrialization". The USA has an abundance of weapons, which it chooses not to use for the purpose they were built, to kill Russians. When it was Biden making the decisions, he allowed the Russians to control his weapon stockpile by listening to Russians talk about red lines not to be crossed unless the USA wanted to be nuked. Trump is now making the decisions, and he is on Russia's side against Ukraine. His red line is to make it less than obvious that he is on Putin's team.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, August 17, 2025 7:54 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

It Took 10 Brigades, Urgently Redeploying, For Ukraine to Block Russia's Pokrovsk Incursion

There may have been thousands of Russian troops in the nine-mile salient, but they lacked drones

Aug 16, 2025

https://www.trenchart.us/p/it-took-10-brigades-urgently-redeploying

The Russian penetration of Ukrainian lines northeast of Pokrovsk last week was bigger and more dangerous than some analysts initially concluded.

We know this because we know what it took for Ukrainian forces to block further Russian advances—and then begin rolling back the incursion this week. It took all or some of around 10 brigades and regiments, including several fighting under the banner of the Ukrainian national guard’s new 1st Azov Corps.

Ukraine redeployed elements from the 79th and 82nd Air Assault Brigades, 1st and 425th Assault Regiments, 25th Assault Battalion, 2nd Battalion of the 92nd Assault Brigade, 32nd and 93rd Mechanized Brigades, 38th Marine Brigade, 14th National Guard Brigade and the Birds of Magyar drone brigade.

Ukrainian police, special operators, Leopard 1A5 tanks and a few gun-armed ground robots (see video below) also joined the counterattack.

The Russian contingent that slipped past effectively empty Ukrainian trenches northeast of the besieged city of Pokrovsk wasn’t just a loose gaggle of “five to 10 mythical monsters trying to crawl deep into the territory,” the Ukrainian Deep State analysis group observed.

No, the Russians were “a serious problem,” Deep State explained. It’s telling that, in the first three days of their counterattack, the Azov troopers reported inflicting nearly 400 Russian casualties.

By the time the Ukrainian counterattacked, there may have been thousands of Russians in the narrow salient stretching nine miles north from the former front line. Turning left at the top of their salient, the Russians threatened the village of Dobropillya, 10 miles north of Pokrovsk.

There are just two main roads into besieged Pokrovsk, and one of them—the T0515—threads through Dobropillya. The garrison in Pokrovsk, including a few Leopard 2A4 tank crews, can’t afford to lose the T0515.

Luckily for the Ukrainians, the Russians were their own worst enemy as they marched on Dobropillya. The Russian advance through those under-manned trenches was “chaotic,” according to Deep State.

Messy march

The 51st Combined Arms Army, the main Russian force in the battle for Dobropillya, “did not have time to properly establish itself in order to pull up the main forces—in particular, the drone crews,” Deep State noted. Russia’s elite Rubicon drone group is somewhere near Pokrovsk, but may not have made a significant contribution to the march on Dobropillya.

“The enemy's movements at that time were carried out without the active support of aerial reconnaissance, artillery and other means.” When the Ukrainian reinforcements finally arrived, they were better-supported and better-coordinated. They “set about stabilizing” the situation, Deep State recalled.

But the thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, guardsmen, marines, commandos, police and robot-operators who are now aggressively chopping up the Russian salient may represent the bulk of Ukraine’s operational reserve.

Short 100,000 trained infantry across their 130 or so combat brigades, the armed forces of Ukraine—the AFU—almost certainly don’t have enough uncommitted troops to respond to more than one Dobropillya-scale incursion at a time. Indeed, further Russian incursions are possible because Ukraine has too few infantry.

“The conditions for such a breakthrough [as in Dobropillya] have been in place for some time,” the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team warned, “with a shortage of infantry the most serious problem for the AFU—one that is unlikely to be solved quickly.”

“Even if this breakthrough is swiftly reversed,” CIT added, “we do not rule out that it could happen again, as Russian forces are continually probing for weak points in the Ukrainian defenses.”

Thanks for reading Trench Art! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, August 17, 2025 8:08 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Weekend Update #146: A Deal To Destroy Ukraine
Europe Will Have To Choose Soon; The Pokrovsk "Collapse" Was Nothing Of The Sort

By Phillips P. OBrien | Aug 17, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-146-a-deal-to-de
stroy

Hi All,

Well, Its been fewer than 48 hours since the Trump-Putin love and respect fest in Anchorage, and the analysis is finally catching up to the reality. This meeting has brought about arguably the most dangerous moment of the war for Ukraine and the rest of Europe. They have been put in a situation soon where Donald Trump might urge upon them a very Putin-friendly “peace” plan and they reject it and the US basically leaves and even ends sanctions on Russia, or they, God forbid, agree to Putin and Trump’s terms and leave themselves both in a state of permanent instability.

r/Military - American troops rolling a red carpet for Putin
US soldiers in Alaksa, on their knees, preparing the red carpet for Putin: Trump humiliates Americans continually and calls it greatness.

Its a terrible situation—that should have been anticipated and prepared for. However, sadly we are here and the preparations (outside of Ukraine) are far less advanced than they should have been. Moves towards any kind of strategic autonomy from the USA are far less advanced than they should have been.

Beyond the geopolitics, the poverty of the military analysis regularly wheeled out about the war was on full display this week. It started with reports of a brilliant Russian operation north of Pokrovsk (which has been falling since August 2024 if you remember) that indicated, supposedly, that Ukraine was getting so weak it might collapse. The week ended with the Ukrainians counterattacking, slicing the Russian advance into pieces and retaking much of the land.

This kind of story should not be being repeated 3.5 years into the war, but amazingly/regrettably it is.

A Deal To Destroy Ukraine

Though at first there was a rush to try and claim that little was accomplished at Anchorage, more and more there are pieces of evidence of a possible “deal” that will be presented to Zelensky for his approval when he arrives in Washington on Monday (tomorrow). The Anchorage meeting, as I wrote yesterday, was a catastrophe for Ukraine and Europe for a number of reasons—it normalized relations between the US and Russia, it destroyed fully (for the hopelessly naive) that Trump would ever put sanctions on Russia and it established clearly that the US was now saying Ukraine had to give up land to Russia for any “peace” deal.

Different elements of a deal have appeared in different outlets. The New York Times had arguably the most element when it claimed that Putin had demanded all of the Donbas (which he has not conquered) and in exchange would no longer demand the parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia which he has not conquered. Moreover the Times claimed that Trump told European leaders that he (Trump) supported a deal of this kind.

Even writing these words, the debasement of the USA is clear. The USA is basically telling Ukraine to give up one part of its unseized land so that Russia won’t take another part which Russia cannot take.

In other words the US is not only validating Russian illegal conquest, its now arguing that these conquest needs to be extended. The Kyiv Independent put together this helpful map (see below). The most important thing to note is that the unconquered large part of Donetsk Oblast (the part still in white) would go to Russia in the “deal” as well as the small part of Luhansk that has not been conquered. This includes the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which are surrounded by heavy defenses.

Now what would Ukraine get in exchange for this sacrifice of its own people and territory to Russia. Well two things were mooted—the first, which I cannot believe was said with a straight face, was that Putin would offer a “written guarantee” to not go back to war with Ukraine. Wow! Where have we seen those used to keep the peace before? I think I remember something….
r/HistoryPorn - Neville Chamberlain returning from Germany with the piece of paper signed by Hitler which would bring "peace for our time" September 30th, 1938. [1920x1080]

And what else does Ukraine “get”. Well Trump is offering them super-duper (but of course non-Nato) security guarantees. The details of these security guarantees are unknown, but they are or at least should be seen as worthless. The whole fact that Ukraine is being kept out of NATO shows their hollowness.

Other areas such as the continuation of present sanctions on Russia and what the US does with its seized Russian assets are left unclear for now—but I think we can safely assume that the US gets back to business with Russia asap (that’s was Trump’s big point at Anchorage anyway). What happens to abducted Ukrainian children, accused Russian war criminals, etc, etc—that would be irrelevant to Trump.

So the deal being offered to Ukraine is arguably subjugation to Russia in all but words, and would set the stage for Russia to reinvade at its leisure. Its even worse than the deal that Trump was proposing in April-May, which had no large extra sacrifices of land by Ukraine.

And yet here we are, and some people refer to this deal as progress.

Europe Will Have To Choose Soon

The moment of decision for Europe is approaching. As I tried to say on Thursday, the decision is not about whether to maintain the post 1945/1989 European world. That world is over, and if you did not believe it on Thursday you better have started on Friday when the US and Russia started normalizing.

The “deal” being proposed for Ukraine could very well be the pivot which decides what the new Europe will be. Will it be one of validated conquest, of war crimes covered up, of abducted children and normalization with butchers? And more, will it be one in which European states basically continue to outsource their security to a completely unreliable USA—a USA which made all the above possible.

Or will Europe start clearly, aggressively and with purpose, to take responsibility for its own future?

There will be voices in Europe, not just Orban and Fico, pressing Ukraine to take this deal and basically to leave the continent dependent on the USA and thus always vulnerable to Russia. And there will be others, who know the existential threat that they are facing and which will push for something better. In the different statements that have emerged since Anchorage, you can already see some of the different perspectives.

The Baltic 8 (which includes Iceland as well as the four Nordic states and three Baltic states) released a very skeptical comment in which they accused, entirely truthfully, Putin of lying and said Ukraine’s pathway to NATO had to stay open. Here is the text from the Swedish Foreign Ministry. https://www.government.se/statements/2025/08/joint-statement-of-the-le
aders-of-the-nordic-baltic-eight-on-ukraine/

Quote:
To achieve a just and lasting peace the next step must be together with Ukraine. Only Ukraine can make decisions concerning its future. No decisions on Ukraine without Ukraine, and no decisions on Europe without Europe.

Experience has shown that Putin cannot be trusted. Ultimately it is Russia's responsibility to end its blatant violations of international law. Russia's aggression and imperialist ambitions are the root causes of this war.

Achieving a just and lasting peace requires a ceasefire. And credible security guarantees for Ukraine. A peace agreement needs firm and concrete commitments by transatlantic partners to safeguard Ukraine against any future aggression. We welcome President Trump’s statement that the US is prepared to participate in security guarantees. No limitations should be placed on Ukraine’s armed forces or on its cooperation with other countries. Russia has no veto over Ukraine’s pathway to the EU and NATO.

The UK government, which is still invested in maintaining a mostly non-existent special relationship, was the most effusive in its praise of Trump. Though it tried to hedge a little, Prime Minister Starmer resorted to a great deal of flattery in his official statement yesterday. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-statement-on-ukraine-16-august-2
025

Quote:
President Trump’s efforts have brought us closer than ever before to ending Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine. His leadership in pursuit of an end to the killing should be commended.

While progress has been made, the next step must be further talks involving President Zelenskyy. The path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without him.

This morning, I spoke to President Zelenskyy, President Trump and other European partners, and we all stand ready to support this next phase.

I welcome the openness of the United States, alongside Europe, to provide robust security guarantees to Ukraine as part of any deal. This is important progress and will be crucial in deterring Putin from coming back for more.

Hmmm

Later Starmer was part of a larger group of European leaders, including those of Germany, France and Poland, that released a statement that was somewhere between the more resolute stance of the Baltics and Nordics and the open flattery of Trump.

Soon, however, statements will not be enough. If Trump tries to force Ukraine to take this deal, then European states one way or the other will have to either join with Trump or back Ukraine. The fact that we do not really know what many/most European states will do, is hardly comforting.

The Pokrovsk "Collapse" Was Nothing Of The Sort

What do you do if you’ve been constantly prophesying about a Ukrainian collapse around Pokrovsk and it stubbornly keeps from happening? If you are the Washington Post or a well known military analyst, you simply write that the collapse is about to happen the next time.

Now, the Post is truly remarkable in this regard. It has published stories of Ukraine being on the verge of collapse since early 2024. Six months ago I put together a summary of some of these.
A Year of Ukrainian "Collapse" Narratives:
A Year of Ukrainian "Collapse" Narratives:
Phillips P. OBrien
·
Feb 26
Read full story

Lets go back to how the Post has described the Ukrainian military for the last year and a half (all sources are in that piece). Here was the Post in February 2024.

The Ukrainian military is facing a critical shortage of infantry, leading to exhaustion and diminished morale on the front line, military personnel in the field said this week — a perilous new dynamic for Kyiv nearly two years into the grinding, bloody war with Russia….

Well when the Ukrainian military stubbornly refused to collapse in 2024, that did not stop the Post—no indeed. This is how the situation was described in Ukraine in January of 2025.

At the same time, the ranks of Ukrainian soldiers have grown more and more depleted and unequipped to fend off the Russian onslaught. Those in the field describe exhaustion and slumping morale. And soldiers who said they believed in fighting until the last of the Russian occupiers were pushed off all of Ukraine’s territory are increasingly supporting President-elect Donald Trump’s call to begin negotiations to end the war.

The shift in attitude has come as Ukrainian soldiers said they have grown frustrated with their own government in Kyiv, criticizing what has been a slow and disjointed mobilization campaign. Many also said they had to invest their own money or were dependent on civilian volunteers for equipment such as drones and the vehicles they drive near front-line positions because they couldn’t rely on the government for essential equipment.

Now that collapse did not occur either. However when the Russians seemed to make a breakthrough (that was not a breakthrough) to the North of Pokrovsk last week, the Post and the analytical community which has been prophesying a Ukrainian collapse lost their heads again and jumped on the collapse bandwagon.

Here was the situation that got them all excited. By August 11, the Russians had seemingly advanced threateningly in that double pronged fork shape.

Now, Michael Kofman went to great lengths to highlight this development immediately and cast it in the worst possible light. Here are segments from his twitter thread on the subject. First, this advance shows massive Ukrainian problems.

and things are so bad that they might even result in a Russian “operational” breakthrough!

And the real problem (in language strikingly similar to that used in the Post (and Financial Times too it must be said) is Ukraine’s screw ups.

This sets off a large scale focus on Ukrainian weakness and failures, such as these three tweets:

And could this lead to a “collapse”! They love that word.

Well guess what. The Russian operation has been quickly countered by the Ukrainians who have counterattacked effectively (amazing that considering all their faults). Indeed, the Russian operation seems to be turning into a bit of a fiasco. Here is the present Deep State map.

So, what does the Post do? Well, clearly they had been planning to write a dooming piece about how the Russian infiltration was a sign of Ukrainian collapse. However when that did not happen, they decided to press on anyway and write this piece about how it was really a disaster anyway. Guess what—even though the Ukrainians successfully cut up the Russian infiltration—it was really a “calamity” for Ukraine.

That this story could have been written after this last week is a sign that military analysis is getting worse, not better. Its been well over a year and a half that Ukraine was on the verge of collapse, that Pokrovsk was about to fall, that the world was ending. And yet time and again the analytical community pushing this narrative is proven wrong and wrong again. And amazingly, that community almost always errs in one way—in favor of the idea that Ukraine is close to collapse and Russia is a steamroller.

I say this now without hesitation. We have the worst military analysis community in the history of military analysis.

Thanks for reading Phillips’s Newsletter! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, August 17, 2025 8:39 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Here's your realism:

1. Fuck Ukraine.

2. Nobody cares.

That's been the truth since the genesis of this thread.

On the flight to Alaska, President Trump declared that if he did not secure a cease-fire in Ukraine during talks with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, “I’m not going to be happy,” and there would be “severe consequences.”

Just hours later, he got back on Air Force One and departed Alaska without the cease-fire he deemed so critical. Yet he had imposed no consequences, and had pronounced himself so happy with how things went with Mr. Putin that he said “the meeting was a 10.”

Even in the annals of Mr. Trump’s erratic presidency, the Anchorage meeting with Mr. Putin now stands out as a reversal of historic proportions. Mr. Trump abandoned the main goal he brought to his subarctic summit and, as he revealed on Saturday, would no longer even pursue an immediate cease-fire. Instead, he bowed to Mr. Putin’s preferred approach of negotiating a broader peace agreement requiring Ukraine to give up territory.

The net effect was to give Mr. Putin a free pass to continue his war against his neighbor indefinitely without further penalty, pending time-consuming negotiations for a more sweeping deal that appears elusive at best. Instead of a halt to the slaughter — “I’m in this to stop the killing,” Mr. Trump had said on the way to Alaska — the president left Anchorage with pictures of him and Mr. Putin joshing on a red carpet and in the presidential limousine known as the Beast.

For all the promises of a cease-fire, of severe economic consequences, of being disappointed, it took two minutes on the red carpet and 10 minutes in the Beast for Putin to play Trump again. What a sad spectacle.

The cease-fire that Mr. Trump gave up in Alaska had been so important to him last month that he threatened tough new economic sanctions if Russia did not pause the war within 50 days. Then he moved the deadline up to last Friday. Now there is no cease-fire, no deadline and no sanctions plan.

https://attentiontotheunseen.com/2025/08/16/once-again-trump-exposed-h
is-weakness-and-got-played-by-putin/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, August 17, 2025 9:47 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

"Our task is to reach the Volga. It has a cascade of power plants, and then it will be a matter of who drives whom into a corner. If we strike a few power plants, 40% of Russian territory will clearly be without electricity,' said Romanenko.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/palianytsia-and-own-ballistics-what-is
-known-1724954613.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, August 17, 2025 10:26 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
"Our task is to reach the Volga. It has a cascade of power plants, and then it will be a matter of who drives whom into a corner. If we strike a few power plants, 40% of Russian territory will clearly be without electricity,' said Romanenko.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/palianytsia-and-own-ballistics-what-is
-known-1724954613.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Imagine if people were discussing this online about your local power plant.

Then imagine the last time your power was knocked out for a few days.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, August 17, 2025 11:16 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Trump Has No Cards

Why would Putin need to make a deal with him?

Annie is right, but it has nothing to do with Trump.

Between deindustrialization and our high-profit model of military weaponry, plus our multi-front, delusional "full spectrum dominance" ambitions, we don't have weapons to spare.

What does it take to be a realist around here???

End of story, case closed.
Signym, you are insane. Or just an overly articulate ignoramus. The USA has NOT been "deindustrialization". The USA has an abundance of weapons, which it chooses not to use for the purpose they were built, to kill Russians. When it was Biden making the decisions, he allowed the Russians to control his weapon stockpile by listening to Russians talk about red lines not to be crossed unless the USA wanted to be nuked. Trump is now making the decisions, and he is on Russia's side against Ukraine. His red line is to make it less than obvious that he is on Putin's team.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Tell me, SECOND, how many Patriot missiles do we have left, and what is our production rate?

Why were the USA and EU scrounging the world for a 155 mm shells?

How long does it take to modernize an Abrams tank and make it ready for warfare?

Your problem, SECOND, is that you don't have the faintest idea. So you live in a world of delusion.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

THGR claims I have no morels, and he's absolutely right.

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Monday, August 18, 2025 7:31 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russian forces are currently struggling to complete the encirclement or envelopment of Kupyansk from the northwest and have not yet seized the settlement despite 22 months of offensive operations. Russian forces began a dedicated effort to seize Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast in mid-June 2024.[8] Russian forces started this effort not far from the positions that Russian forces held prior to the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Russian forces seized Toretsk by August 1, 2025, taking 14 months to advance about 6.4 miles from the southeastern outskirts of Toretsk to the northwestern outskirts of Toretsk.[9]

The Russian campaign for Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, began in May 2023 after Russian forces seized Bakhmut (east of Chasiv Yar), and Russian forces intensified efforts to seize Chasiv Yar in April 2024.[10] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces completed the seizure of Chasiv Yar on July 31, 2025, although ISW has yet to observe evidence that Russian forces have seized the entirety of the settlement.[11] It has taken Russian forces 26 months to advance about 6.8 miles (roughly 11 kilometers) from western Bakhmut to the western edge of Chasiv Yar.

Russian forces began efforts to seize Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, in February 2024 after the seizure of Avdiivka and have dedicated multiple efforts to seizing Pokrovsk through frontal assaults, envelopment, or encirclement – all of which have thus far been unsuccessful after more than 18 months.[12]

Russian forces took open areas without any significantly fortified settlements during their recent penetration northeast of Pokrovsk near Dobropillya.[13] Russian forces still have not demonstrated any capability to rapidly seize large, fortified positions, however, as the campaigns for Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk have shown.[14] Russian forces are struggling to supply and reinforce their tactical penetration near Dobropillya and defend against Ukrainian counterattacks on the flanks —suggesting that Russian forces may not be able to consolidate their positions and exploit this penetration. The Russian effort for Dobropillya is just one part of Russia's broader 18-month effort to seize Pokrovsk, moreover. Russia's efforts near Dobropillya result from the failure of Russia's initial effort to encircle Pokrovsk from the southwest and northeast, causing the Russian command to try a deeper envelopment further northeast and north.

None of these many-months-long efforts to take Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk have been at the scale needed to seize all of Ukraine's fortress belt – Ukraine's highly fortified, main defensive line in Donetsk Oblast that consists of cities that are significantly larger in terms of size and population.[15] Russian efforts to seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast by force would take several years, given the number of fortified urban areas Russian forces must overcome to reach the Donetsk Oblast administrative boundaries.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-august-17-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, August 18, 2025 7:34 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Ukraine's 1,900-Mile Cruise Missile Is Very Big, Very Fast and Very Destructive

Can Kyiv afford it?

Aug 17, 2025

https://www.trenchart.us/p/ukraines-new-7-ton-cruise-missile

Most of Ukraine’s deep-strike drones range no farther than 800 miles. Worse, the best of them—the extended-range Ukroboronprom An-196s, for instance—reach their maximum range by adding fuel at the expense of explosives. The farthest-flying An-196s may pack warheads weighing fewer than 220 pounds. https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/08/09/ukraine-liutyi-drone-warhead-50
-percent-growth/

That trade-off—less payload for greater range—is the main reason why Ukraine’s deep strikes aren’t always very destructive. Especially the ones targeting oil refineries, weapons factories and air bases in the 800-mile zone.

“Drones that can fly that far typically can’t deliver the kind of payload needed to inflict serious or lasting damage to a facility that big,” explained Tatarigami, the founder of the Frontelligence Insight analysis group.

A new cruise missiles may change the math. For Ukraine, the ramp-launched Flamingo is an opportunity to massively expand its strike campaign—hitting more targets farther away while inflicting greater damage.

The Flamingo, which may be based on the FP-5 from Emirati firm Milanion, recently entered serial production, according to Associated Press jouranlist Efrem Lukatsky. An A.P. photo depicts two of the seven-ton rocket-propelled on their trailers at an unspecified workshop belonging to Kyiv-based manufacturer Fire Point.

With its likely combination of GPS and inertial guidance and its potentially 2,200-pound warhead, the Flamingo is essentially a modern version of the 1970s-vintage Tupolev Tu-141 reconnaissance drones that Ukraine transformed into crude cruise missiles early in Russia’s wider war on the country.

The Flamingo also borrows from the nuclear-tipped ground-launched cruise missiles of the early Cold War—including the U.S. Air Force’s Mace and Matador, which themselves traced their origins to Nazi Germany’s V-1 buzz bomb.

How many missiles?

The question, of course, is scale. Yes, the Flamingo is reportedly in “serial production,” according to Lukatsky. But how serial?

In late 2024, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky announced Ukraine would acquire 30,000 deep-strike munitions this year, but the best of them are available in relatively small numbers. Germany invested hundreds of millions of dollars to buy Ukraine an extra 500 or so An-196s alongside an unspecified number of Bars cruise missiles.

The Bars in particular has “potential for mass production within Ukraine,” the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team noted. Again, we don’t know what “mass production” means in this context. “The extent to which the new Bars missile will affect the front line will depend entirely on how many are made available to the Ukrainian military,” CIT wrote.

The same is true of the Flamingo.

Russia is producing its own main deep-strike munition, the 440-pound Shahed attack drone, at a rate of around 1,000 per day. To strike back at equal intensity, Ukraine needs to launch hundreds of drones or missiles every day—not the 80 a day that Zelensky’s 30,000-munition program implies.

It’s unclear how much a Flamingo costs, but its size and performance—its 600-mile-per-hour speed is especially impressive—might point to a unit cost of at least $1 million. That’s probably too expensive.

One way to lower the cost is to build more copies, of course. As Shahed production at the type’s main Russian factory in Yelabuga has ramped up, the unit price has dropped a lot—down a factor of four to potentially just $50,000 per drone.

If Ukraine can scale up Flamingo production and intensify strikes beyond 800 miles, it may opt to finally bombard … the Shahed factory. Sprawling across 1.7 million square feet, it’s a very hard target—but one of the most valuable for a long-range missile with a heavy warhead.

Thanks for reading Trench Art! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, August 18, 2025 3:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Scarborough: We've Always Known Ukraine Would Have To Give Up Land, Never Join NATO

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2025/08/18/scarborough_weve_al
ways_known_ukraine_would_have_to_give_up_land_never_join_nato.html

Quote:
JOE SCARBOROUGH: Let's underline two things here—just again, to set expectations.

Even during the Biden administration, every Biden official, including the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said they're going to have to give up land. They're not going to like giving up land, but they're going to have to give up land. That's number one.

Number two, they're not going to become members of NATO. There may have been people writing articles in The Wall Street Journal or elsewhere saying they have to be members of NATO, but you go around to every European leader—that was never going to happen. But there was an idea of a quasi–NATO-type guarantee. And they need that guarantee.

Shut the fuck up, Joe. Don't you have more interns to rape and murder?

YOU didn't say shit. I told YOU that Ukraine would have to give up land and would never join NATO. You called me a Nazi for saying it.

There's only two things about this war that were true from the beginning, and I was the only one saying them.

1. Fuck Ukraine

2. Nobody Cares

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Tuesday, August 19, 2025 5:54 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NATO banned weapons to this Ukrainian unit. Now they study its tactics.

Azov went from pariah to the territorial defense case study.

By Julian McBride | August 19, 2025

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/08/19/nato-banned-weapons-to-this-ukr
ainian-unit-now-they-study-its-tactics/

When NATO militaries examine effective territorial defense, they keep running into an uncomfortable problem: one of the best examples comes from a unit they refused to arm for years.

The 1st Azov Corps was synonymous with far-right extremism. NATO countries wouldn’t send weapons. Today, those same militaries study how Ukraine systematically purged the extremists while keeping the effectiveness.

Why does this matter beyond Ukraine? Because territorial defense just became essential for every democracy with an authoritarian neighbor. And Azov shows it’s possible to transform controversial volunteer forces without losing what makes them effective.

When armies collapse, volunteers fill the gap

Ukraine’s regular army was falling apart in 2014. Corruption, no equipment, units that wouldn’t fight. Russian forces and their proxies grabbed footholds in Luhansk and Donetsk while Ukrainian brigades crumbled.

Someone had to step up. On 5 May 2014, Russian-speaking Ukrainians formed Azov during the initial phase of the Donbas war. Initially called the “Black Corps” for their black masks and urban combat gear, they weren’t your typical volunteer battalion.

They got results fast. Azov helped retake Mariupol in September 2014 and Marinka in June 2015. Effective fighters who could actually push Russian forces out of key cities.

But here’s the thing: effectiveness came with baggage. Among the nationalists and patriots were members with alleged ties to far-right extremists. The Kremlin seized on this, turning Azov into a propaganda goldmine for justifying future aggression.

Much more at https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/08/19/nato-banned-weapons-to-this-ukr
ainian-unit-now-they-study-its-tactics/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, August 19, 2025 5:56 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

There's only two things about this war that were true from the beginning, and I was the only one saying them.

1. Fuck Ukraine

2. Nobody Cares

A Russian servicemember recently murdered a Ukrainian woman in the Pokrovsk direction in clear violation of international law. The Ukrainian Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor's Office reported on August 18 that it opened an investigation into a Russian servicemember murdering a Ukrainian woman as she walked on a street near Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk).[39] The Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) states that "intentionally direct attacks against the civilian population or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities” constitutes a serious violation of the laws and customs applicable in international armed conflict within the established framework of international law.[40] Russian soldiers have notably committed extreme atrocities against civilians and soldiers in Ukraine as part of the wider military modus operandi.[41]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-august-18-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, August 19, 2025 6:41 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

War And Power: An Excerpt
Plus: Trump Worked Himself Up Into A Lather -- Then TACO'D (For Now)

By Phillips P. OBrien | Aug 19, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/war-and-power-an-excerpt

It’s easy to count tanks; it’s much harder to assess how well those operating the tanks have been prepared for combat, and whether those operating the tanks really want to operate them in combat. Militaries (at least for now) still must be controlled by human beings, and often it is their learned skills and continuing ability to take risks that determine the course of wars. Of course, human abilities need to be backed up by constant operational sustainment. When the myth of the short, decisive war collapses, as it usually does, what is left is a long-term struggle to constantly regenerate — and even grow — military force as it is being destroyed in combat. The military equipment with which a country starts a war is normally eaten up in short order, and the war becomes a desperate test to make, repair and recreate military force.

Alliances often determine the outcome of a war even for the most powerful states. Allies play an enormous role in providing aid, and can even take over a significant amount of the fighting burden. The two world wars were decided by alliances acting in concert, not individual states fighting their own wars. Or, to put it more bluntly, the states that acted most like individual actors - such as Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan in World War II — were doomed when faced with the Allies, who were willing to act far more cooperatively. In other words, those states that try to act like individual great powers, like Germany in both world wars, ended up defeated; while those nations that were able to work in larger coalitions — such as Britain — had their victory parades.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, August 19, 2025 6:59 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

On the meeting between Trump and Europe about Ukraine:

By Andrew Pavelyev

I had a bizarre experience with that meeting. My parents live with us, and my mother has dementia. Last morning a nurse came and gave us some tips. Among other things she told us that when Mom starts talking nonsense (like hearing voices or seeing something, or asking about her mother), we should not try to reason with her (which is my natural inclination, as not only am I a scientist, but she used to be an analytical chemist), lest she gets agitated, but rather play along, sooth her and then try to distract. A couple hours later I was watching the Oval Office meeting and suddenly realized that all visitors were treating Trump like a dementia patient!

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/war-and-power-an-excerpt/commen
t/146893223

Trump's behavior at the meeting is described at https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/war-and-power-an-excerpt

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, August 19, 2025 11:04 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

There's only two things about this war that were true from the beginning, and I was the only one saying them.

1. Fuck Ukraine

2. Nobody Cares
A Russian

There's only two things about this war that were true from the beginning, and I was the only one saying them.

1. Fuck Ukraine

2. Nobody Cares

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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