Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

Keep it real please

Quote:
Originally posted by second:

Weekend Update #163: Ukraine Goes From Collapsing to Liberating Kupyansk

The Two Negotiations; Stirrings in Europe

Phillips P. OBrien

Dec 14, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-163-ukraine-goes
-from

It has been a week of some awakenings on the European continent. The impact of the US National Security has been real, at least emotionally. Some Europeans, even previously staunch Atlanticists, are openly acknowledging that the USA is now not even to be seen as neutral but instead to be understood as an enemy of liberal democracy in Europe. Not everyone has changed and we do not know how this will be translated into policy, but the discussion is shifting and this shift is a vital prerequisite to shifting policy.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Which is why comrade signym is gone.

T

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, December 14, 2025 2:43 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:

Weekend Update #163: Ukraine Goes From Collapsing to Liberating Kupyansk

The Two Negotiations; Stirrings in Europe

Phillips P. OBrien

Dec 14, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-163-ukraine-goes
-from

It has been a week of some awakenings on the European continent. The impact of the US National Security has been real, at least emotionally. Some Europeans, even previously staunch Atlanticists, are openly acknowledging that the USA is now not even to be seen as neutral but instead to be understood as an enemy of liberal democracy in Europe. Not everyone has changed and we do not know how this will be translated into policy, but the discussion is shifting and this shift is a vital prerequisite to shifting policy.

THGR:
Which is why comrade signym is gone.

HUH?
No, I'm not "gone“, you moron. I just posted in this thread yesterday. To you, even.

South to north this past week:

The fortified town to the south, Huliaipola is in the process of being stormed. Russian soldiers are on the Ukrainian side of the river, and there is fighting in the center of the town.

Pokrovsk is fully under Russian control.

Its twin city just to the east, in the same pocket, Myrnograd, has been fully surrounded and the last areas of Ukrainian resistance are disappearing as soldiers either surrender or are killed.

A pocket around Konstantinovka is being formed as Russian soldiers broke thru to the north of the city and are approaching physical control of the one remaining major roadway into the city.

The forified town, Sieversk has been liberated. Bc it's on high ground it will serve as a jumping off point for the major city of Slaviansk to the west.

Russians are taking more territory to the Oskol river

In Kupiansk, while Ukrainians are attacking Russians on the western side of the Oskol river, Russians are taking control over the Ukrainian soldiers that they surrounded on the eastern side, and advancing westward both north and south of the attacking Ukrainian contingent. It looks like another pocket is being formed around the Ukrainians.

And since Zelensky pulled soldiers from the Sumy region to attack Kupiansk, Russians are advancing in Sumy.

Altogether, a bad week for Ukraine. Of course, you won't hear about it bc it's not in western media.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, December 14, 2025 3:42 PM

#Rootin4Putin

#Fuck Ukraine

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, December 14, 2025 6:27 PM

Keep it real please

Pokrovsk is fully under Ukrainian control dummy.

T

Ukraine’s Counterattack Just Changed the Situation on the Front

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, December 14, 2025 6:36 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Pokrovsk is fully under Ukrainian control dummy.

BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!
*gasp!*
Hahahahaha!

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, December 14, 2025 6:58 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Ukrainians Are Secretly Taking Control Of Russia's Shahed Drones
Electronic warfare spoofing is tricking some Shaheds into landing

Dec 14, 2025

https://www.trenchart.us/p/ukrainians-are-secretly-taking-control

On Friday night and Saturday morning, Russian forces launched a massive attack on Ukraine involving 270 explosive Shahed drones, 196 decoy Shaheds, 16 cruise missiles and 14 ballistic missiles.

The main target was Odesa, Ukraine’s strategic port on the Black Sea—the destination for many of Ukraine’s imports and the departure point for many of its exports, including billions of dollars worth of grain every year.

No one died in the attacks, but a million people lost power. The Ukrainian air force reported shooting down or suppressing 417 Shaheds, nine cruise missiles and four ballistic missiles. It’s evident, from videos shot in around Odesa during the attack, that Ukrainian electronic warfare worked overtime to blunt the bombardment.

In particular, it’s evident that strategic E.W. systems (basically, powerful ground-mounted radio emitters) are spoofing some of the 440-pound Shaheds: convincing them they’re flying higher than they actually are—and tricking them into gently landing on the ground … or water.

Ukrainian E.W. operators recently proved they can spoof multi-million-dollar Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. It should be much easier to spoof a $50,000 Shahed that flies no faster than 220 miles per hour and no higher than 15,000 feet. One Ukrainian source who’s active in the E.W. field confirmed that his team recently updated the software on one of the strategic E.W. systems that protects Odessa.

Two recent videos, possibly from the Friday-Saturday barrage, depict what are clearly spoofed Shaheds. One descends to the Black Sea just off Odesa, skips like a stone and settles onto the water. Another skids to a rough landing on a road.

There are other ways to down a Shahed, of course. Jamming their navigation systems, rather than spoofing them, can cause them to fly wildly off course. Ukrainian forces also shoot down the drones from the air or ground. Increasingly, Ukrainian units intercept the Shaheds with tiny, speedy interceptor drones.

But spoofing is often better, as it can ground a Shahed fairly intact. Ukrainian intelligence pores over the drone’s wreckage, looking for new additions. Recent intel indicates the Russians are adding cameras and A.I.-assisted targeting software for terminal guidance—and also installing more controlled reception pattern antennas to make Shaheds more resistant to jamming.

Bare bones

The Shahed’s bare-bones design—the key to its lost cost—lends itself to spoofing. Shaheds do not have radar altimeters or other downward-pointing sensors (cameras or lasers) for measuring height above the ground. They almost certainly get their main altitude readings from the same navigation satellites that also feed them their position readings.

An internal barometer does back up the satellite data for altitude readings, but barometers are sensitive to changes in the weather and may work best measuring relative changes in a drone’s altitude. In other words, a barometer might tell a drone it climbed or dove 1,000 feet, but it might not tell the drone exactly how high above the ground it is.

All that is to say, an E.W. system that can match the signals from a navigation satellite constellation and slightly overpower those signals can trick a drone into taking location and altitude readings from the fake signals.

An E.W. system can, in that way, gently nudge a Shahed to a water or road landing. Just tell the drone it’s 500 feet in the air when it’s really 50 feet in the air … and then tell the drone to descend another 50 feet.

Thanks for reading Trench Art! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, December 14, 2025 9:17 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Ukrainians Are Secretly Taking Control Of Russia's Shahed Drones

I guess it's not much of a secret now, huh?

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, December 14, 2025 9:55 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Ukrainians Are Secretly Taking Control Of Russia's Shahed Drones

I guess it's not much of a secret now, huh?

Russians are in contact with drones, so the crash is NOT a "secret". And the cause of the crash is also NOT a "secret". When the Ukrainians trick the Russian drone satellite-based altimeter and cause the drone to crash, the Russians know it happened, but what can they do about it until they devise an unjammable altimeter?

A story about Russians remotely controlling their drones: Russia is adding cameras to its Shahed drones so it can catch Ukrainian interceptors approaching from behind

By Jake Epstein | Nov 26, 2025, 6:16 AM CT

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-added-cameras-to-shahed-drones-
to-see-ukrainian-interceptors-2025-11

"Technological warfare is a cat-and-mouse game," Myronenko shared of the situation in Ukraine today. "Each new technology grants one side an advantage for a certain period — typically three to four months — until the other side develops a countermeasure."

For instance, he said, the Shahed drones that Russia used earlier in the war were equipped with a four-channel antenna. Ukraine quickly learned to jam them with electronic warfare, so Moscow adapted. Now, Shaheds fly with a 16-channel antenna.

"This game continues nonstop," Myronenko said.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, December 14, 2025 11:05 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Ukrainians Are Secretly Taking Control Of Russia's Shahed Drones

I guess it's not much of a secret now, huh?

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, December 15, 2025 5:05 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

However bold Russian diplomats are, they're bluffing, projecting strength to the end.

I’ve monitored Russian soldiers for 3.5 years. The system is finally cracking

What looks like stability is just the residue of fear and habit.

By Alya Shandra | Dec 14, 2025

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/14/ive-monitored-russian-soldiers-
for-3-5-years-the-system-is-finally-cracking/

Russian soldiers expect peace from Trump more than from Putin.

The Russian army is no longer fighting from conviction. It's fighting from the absence of alternatives.

For decades, Russia's political stability rested on an unwritten social contract: the Kremlin guaranteed relative order, economic comfort, and physical security; citizens stayed out of politics and demonstrated complete loyalty. This formula shaped modern Russia more deeply than any ideology.

Since the full-scale invasion, this deal has eroded. The state provides less security, less stability, less prosperity—while demanding greater loyalty and greater sacrifice. Yet the contract hasn't collapsed.

It persists because Russians, conditioned by fear and uncertainty, continue to adapt.

Two narratives dominate Western discourse about Russia's wartime condition: that Russia is strong enough to sustain the war for another decade, or that collapse is imminent. The first breeds resignation. The second breeds false hope.

The reality is that Russia is steadily being depleted—economically and in manpower. But this deterioration, cushioned by incomplete sanctions and partnerships with India and China, can continue for some time before the final reckoning.

However bold Russian diplomatic posturing appears, they're bluffing. This is classic Russian statecraft—projecting strength to the end, never acknowledging weakness, intimidating through force. Yet as The Economist noted, Russia has traded 1% of its population for 1.45% of Ukrainian territory captured over three years. At this rate, several more years would pass before reaching even the territorial boundaries they demand at negotiations.

The Russian system holds together through momentum, not confidence. And nowhere is this fragility clearer than inside the military.

Exhaustion you can measure

Russian forces are exhausted—not metaphorically, but measurably, systemically. Our monitoring of military communities over recent years reveals deep, accumulated fatigue.

In 2022, Russia mobilized roughly 300,000 people—a shock that temporarily stabilized the front but triggered mass exodus. Since then, the Kremlin has avoided another public mobilization, relying instead on covert recruitment, contract schemes, and regional volunteer battalions—over 50 created nationwide.

To maintain even current territorial gains, Russia needs substantially more manpower. That requires general mobilization—precisely what Putin wants to avoid. The political cost is too high. Reserves are depleted. Those willing to fight for money have mostly signed up. Regional recruitment data reveals the constraints: wealthy regions attract few volunteers; the burden falls disproportionately on poorer ethnic regions like Buryatia and Bashkortostan.

Desperate for solutions, they resort to half-measures. Putin recently signed a decree calling up reservists for military exercises in 2026—two clauses remain classified. Starting 1 January, conscription will operate year-round rather than during designated periods. This is a step toward full compulsory mobilization.

Over four years, only two events genuinely rattled Russian society and exposed the system's fragility: the 2022 mobilization and Prigozhin's mutiny.

Inside the army, soldiers openly wish for the war to end but insist they'll "fight to the end"—not from conviction but because they fear their commanders more than combat. Many believe political changes abroad, not in Moscow, will determine when they go home.

This is the psychology of a force fighting from the absence of alternatives.

The money is running out

Money became the Kremlin's primary recruitment tool. Contract soldiers' salaries reached roughly 210,000 rubles monthly ($2,100)—a fortune in poor regions. Beyond salaries, signing bonuses ballooned through early 2025, varying by region as the Kremlin set recruitment quotas. But now they're plummeting:

• Samara: 3.6 million rubles down to 2.1 million, then to 400,000

• Tatarstan: 1.5 million up to 2.7 million, then down to 400,000

• Bashkortostan: 1.6 million to 1 million (varying by locality)

• Nizhny Novgorod: 2.6 million to 1.1 million, with summer reports of non-payment

• St. Petersburg: 1.6 million municipal bonus entirely cancelled

Many regions slashed payments because budgets cannot sustain the war. Some regional deficits tripled year-over-year: Tatarstan's reached 31 billion rubles, Bashkortostan's 28 billion, Yamal's 42.3 billion.

Where money once served as the primary motivator, the state now struggles to maintain even the illusion of financial reward.

Inside the army, the picture is grimmer. Soldiers report that 50-80% of their salary goes toward purchasing basic equipment—drones, uniforms, fuel, even food. Refuse to contribute to the "obshchak" (communal fund) and you find yourself either in a pit or sent on assault missions.

Punishment for unauthorized absence is savage: brutal beatings, pit confinement, assault duty. Corruption is systemic. Many soldiers now admit they would pay simply to leave the front.

The old formula is failing

The Kremlin still relies on an old formula: keep life tolerable, and people will remain politically passive. But every component of that formula is gradually being undermined.

Putin entered the 2000s as the savior who rescued Russians from the hungry 1990s. This narrative pervades Russian regions—"at least we live better than in the '90s!" The war became somewhat existential for Russians because propaganda instrumentalized the trauma of bad times: if Russia loses, it will be brought to its knees and you'll live worse than in the '90s.

• The security situation has deteriorated. Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia have shaken the sense of security in regions previously untouched by conflict.

• Economic predictability has vanished. In 2026, approximately 40% of Russia's entire federal budget is allocated to military, police, and security services—an extraordinary signal that priorities have completely shifted away from the civilian population.

• Regional stability is cracking. Families from Kursk who couldn't obtain compensation for destroyed homes for nearly a year eventually turned to public protest—in one of Russia's most loyal regions. In Buryatia, wives of mobilized men publicly confronted local authorities despite the risk of repression.

These aren't political uprisings yet. They're breaches of the deal—moments when people say: "This isn't what we agreed to."

The army as mirror

The clearest signals come from the military. Russia's armed forces are now the starkest indicator of regime fragility.

When an army holds together through fear, is financially exhausted, and forced to fight without clear purpose, it ceases to be a stabilizing institution and becomes a mirror reflecting the weaknesses of the entire machine.

Our research shows:

• Soldiers expect punishment, not support

• Many see no future beyond the front

• Corruption is so entrenched that even survival depends on unofficial payments

• Desertion attempts are widespread; captured deserters face savage beatings and "one-way missions"

• A significant proportion of soldiers hope the war will end through Western political shifts, not Moscow's decisions

What looks like stability in Russia is increasingly just the residue of fear and habit.

Russia's social contract isn't breaking in a dramatic, revolutionary manner. It's disintegrating gradually from all sides: in exhausted brigades, in bankrupt regions, in families waiting for compensation that never arrives, in soldiers who would rather pay for discharge than stay.

Every contract has a breaking point. Russia's becomes possible the moment daily life becomes worse than the fear of punishment.

The mood inside the military—exhaustion, financial collapse, despair—shows movement in that direction is underway.

Russia still projects stability. But beneath the surface, the state is stretched thin, the army is running on fumes, and society is quietly realizing that the deal once struck no longer exists.

Multidimensional chess

Russia can still sustain this war—but it can no longer scale. The manpower pool is drying up. The signing bonuses are collapsing. The regions are going broke. If Ukraine doesn't exhaust itself first and builds its resistance strategically, the breaking point will come.

For this breaking point to arrive before Ukraine's own forces are exhausted, enormous effort is still required.

This is multidimensional chess. Moving on only one front, or taking turns, means risking defeat. Progress must be simultaneous, leaving no direction unattended: the battlefield; weakening energy and refining capabilities deep inside Russia; strengthening sanctions; pressuring the shadow fleet; and mounting an information offensive against the Russian population.

We need to reach Russians — both in the regions and in the army — amplifying their sense of injustice and the regime's broken promises. Only simultaneous progress on all these fronts will eventually bring down Russia's totalitarian edifice.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, December 15, 2025 5:13 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Ukrainians Are Secretly Taking Control Of Russia's Shahed Drones

I guess it's not much of a secret now, huh?

Another "secret" about drones that is not a secret anymore:

Ukraine's intel reveals new Russian drone with missile: How it works

Mon, December 15, 2025 - 11:14

Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) has revealed details about a new Russian Shahed-type drone, or Geran-2 of the E series, which is equipped with an R-60 air-to-air missile.

Russia has adapted the R-60 air-to-air missile for installation on drones to target Ukrainian helicopters and aircraft hunting Russian drones.
New drone design

The missile with the APU-60-1MD aviation launcher is mounted on a special bracket located in the upper front part of the drone's fuselage.

The drone is equipped with two network cameras – in the nose and behind the missile launcher. Video and control commands are transmitted via a Chinese Xingkay Tech XK-F358 mesh modem.

The electronic filling also includes a single-board microcomputer, Raspberry Pi 4, a tracker, and two GSM modems for telemetry transmission. The countries of origin of the electronic component base remain standard for Russian UAVs of this type: the US, China, Switzerland, Taiwan, Japan, Germany, and the UK.

How new drone works

The likely principle of missile application is to transmit images from cameras installed on the drone via a mesh modem to the operator, who, in the event of a Ukrainian aircraft or helicopter appearing in the strike zone, sends a command to the missile's automation unit to launch it.

After launch, the R-60's heat-seeking head independently locks onto the target. Another possible scenario is for the homing head to lock onto the target in advance and transmit the relevant information to the operator, who then gives the command to launch.

The main purpose of the new development is to create a threat to Ukrainian military and tactical aviation and reduce its effectiveness in intercepting Russian drones.

Earlier, HUR reported on 68 new components found in Russian missiles and drones that Russia uses to attack Ukraine's energy facilities.

The Russian turbojet Shahed contains components from the US, China, Switzerland, and other countries.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-s-intel-reveals-new-russian-dr
one-1765790070.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, December 15, 2025 5:24 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
However bold Russian diplomats are, they're bluffing, projecting strength to the end.

You've been saying this line for years now.

Shut the fuck up.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, December 15, 2025 10:18 AM

Keep it real please

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by THG:

Pokrovsk is fully under Ukrainian control dummy.

BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!
*gasp!*
Hahahahaha!

Explosions rock Moscow outskirts as drones reach Russia's capital region

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/explosions-rock-moscow-outskirts-
as-drones-reach-russia-s-capital-region/ar-AA1SkJvo?ocid=msedgntp&pc=EDBBAN&cvid=694023cdbc024a24a2e779f54b926457&ei=45

I don't see a denial. You were touting how Russia had taken Pokrovsk just last week. I said, not so fast. You insisted...

T

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, December 15, 2025 11:08 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Report: Ukraine’s Flamingo missile could wreak havoc on Putin’s air defence production

By Jens Asbjørn Bøgen | Dec 15, 2025

https://www.dagens.com/news/report-ukraines-flamingo-missile-could-wre
ck-havoc-on-putins-air-defence-production

The domestically produced missile is said to have a range of 3000 kilometres.

Ukraine’s expanding arsenal of domestically built cruise missiles could reshape the balance of long-range strikes inside Russia, according to a new analyses from The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

The assessment suggests weaknesses far from the battlefield may become decisive.

Rather than focusing only on frontline engagements, the report argues that industrial choke points behind Russia’s air defences could determine how effectively Moscow protects key sites in the years ahead.

Vulnerable production lines

The study published on Dec. 12, titled Disrupting Russian Air Defence Production: Reclaiming the Sky, says Russia’s air defence manufacturing network contains “significant vulnerabilities.”
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/research-papers
/disrupting-russian-air-defence-production-reclaiming-sky

According to the report, tighter export controls on Western machinery and sanctions on radar-related materials could be paired with strikes on “critical nodes within air defence production that are vulnerable to deliberate attack.”

One focal point is the city of Tula, about 350 kilometres from Ukraine, where production and assembly of the Pantsir air defence system are concentrated.

RUSI notes the region is heavily protected and has so far withstood Ukrainian drone attacks.

Cruise missiles factor

The authors say this calculation could change as Ukraine fields more long-range cruise missiles.

“As Ukraine’s stockpile of indigenous cruise missiles expands, the ability to reach and damage the relevant targets improves,” the report says.

Ukraine is developing several such weapons, including the Flamingo missile, which President Volodymyr Zelensky previously described as “the most successful” missile Ukraine currently has.

The missile is claimed to have a range of 3,000 kilometres and a warhead weighing more than a tonne.

Pantsir systems are primarily used to defend critical infrastructure against long-range drones. RUSI argues that disrupting production could leave these sites exposed to sustained Ukrainian strikes.

Wider strategic impact

“Ukraine could, therefore, mount an operation to saturate the defenses on an approach to Tula before delivering a significant blow to Pantsir production with cruise missiles – ironically resulting in limiting Russia’s ability to defend other targets over the course of 2026,” the report says.

The study adds that these vulnerabilities extend beyond Pantsir, pointing to production risks affecting Russia’s S-400 and S-500 air defence systems, both crucial to its weapons exports.

RUSI also links the issue to NATO security. Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace earlier this year highlighted gaps in Europe’s ability to counter cheap, mass-produced drones.

“A systematic effort to exploit these vulnerabilities could have a disproportionate impact on assisting Ukraine to strike the economic backbone of the Russian war effort and reduce the barriers to NATO airpower,” the report says.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, December 15, 2025 12:47 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Opinion by Thom Hartmann | Dec 14, 2025

It’s the most under-reported story of the year: under Trump, the United States is abandoning advocacy of democracy (shutting down Voice of America, etc), abandoning our democratic allies in Europe, and for the past year has abandoned Ukraine.

At the same time, Trump is building ties to Middle Eastern dictatorships, adopting Russia’s explicit worldview, and now handing to China our most valuable military-potential technology.

A few weeks ago, Trump presented Ukraine with a so-called “peace deal” that was apparently written, in first draft, by Moscow. This week, he told that nation they have “until Christmas” to hand over more than 20 percent of their country to Putin and surrender their own military abilities forever, leaving them vulnerable to Russia’s next attack.

Trump’s brain trust just produced a new National Security Strategy (NSS) for the United States that largely abandons Canada and Europe while embracing a worldview straight out of Putin’s rhetoric.

As the National Security Desk writes: “It abandons allies, misidentifies threats, emboldens aggressors, erodes deterrence, and even drives allies to consider nuclear proliferation.”

Alexander Vindman, the former Director of European Affairs for the United States National Security Council (NSC), wrote: “The prevailing sentiment among European observers was that this document represented not only the closing chapter of decades’ worth of cooperation between the United States and Europe, but also that Washington may soon actively sabotage the political and economic systems of the European Union through the promotion of ‘patriotic parties’ and far-right figures. Amidst an ongoing impasse over a potential peace agreement in Ukraine, representatives of the Russian government claim that the document is ‘consistent with our vision.’”

David Rothkopf, a former senior national security/trade official in the Clinton administration, was equally blunt in an article published by the New Republic: “Indeed, the document, released by the White House on Thursday, reads as if it were dictated by the Kremlin, much as our recent ‘peace proposal’ for Ukraine turned out to have been. Or, perhaps more accurately, it reads like the product of a collaboration between Vladimir Putin and Stephen Miller, the deputy White House chief of staff for nativist hate.”

Russia expert Olga Lautman called it “Russia’s return on investment for interfering in the 2016 election,” and it sure looks like she’s right. An earlier article by her titled “America’s Foreign Policy Now Aligns With Russia” noted: “The NSS does not merely ‘shift priorities.’ It flips seventy-five years of American policy on its head and declares political war on Europe’s democratic institutions while elevating the far-right parties in Europe that Russia has been cultivating for more than a decade. Trump’s team packaged this as a vision for a ‘new’ transatlantic relationship, but the core message is unmistakable, and that is to weaken NATO, fracture Europe, isolate Ukraine, and empower nationalist movements that are openly friendly to Moscow, with every paragraph carrying the same cold, transactional, subservient logic that has defined Trump’s relationship with Russia for decades.”

More at https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/trump-is-about-to-sell-us-out-t
o-our-most-sinister-enemy-opinion/ar-AA1SjLYS

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, December 15, 2025 2:16 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

A Ukrainian Submarine Just Blew Up A Russian Submarine

The Ukrainian boat was unmanned; the Russian boat ... wasn't

Dec 15, 2025

https://www.trenchart.us/p/a-ukrainian-submarine-just-blew-up

Two years ago, Ukrainian firm Ammo Ukraine launched Marichka, a prototype unmanned undersea vehicle, or UUV. The 18-foot-long, torpedo-like drone—which presumably navigates by way of a GPS-aided inertial system—can haul hundreds of pounds of explosives over a distance of up to 600 miles and strike Russian warships where they’re most vulnerable. Below the waterline.

Around the same time, another Ukrainian firm—Brave1—announced it was developing the Toloka class of UUV. The biggest, around 30 feet long, ranges an impressive 1,200 miles, Brave1 claimed.

Today, the Ukrainian state security service, the vaunted SBU, maneuvered an explosive UUV past anti-submarine defenses in the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea in southern Russia. It’s unclear whether the drone sub was based on Marichka or one of the Tolokas or some other design.

Trench Art is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

The “Sub Sea Baby” UUV motored past other moored warships and struck the Kilo-class submarine Varshavyanka. The 242-foot submarine—one of three Kilos left in Black Sea Fleet after a Ukrainian missile blew up one the sub Rostov-on-Don in occupied Crimea in September 2023—exploded.

Stern attack

Video of the attack points to possible extensive damage around the boat’s stern. “If this is the case, even taking into account the enormous luck and the absence of a direct hit on the boat itself, these very important and vulnerable mechanisms could have suffered serious damage,” Russian blogger Military Informant observed.

The Kilos are among the handful of Black Sea Fleet warships that routinely launch Kalibr cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities. Indeed, the SBU claimed four Kalibrs were loaded on Varshavyanka at the time of the attack.

The damage to Varshavyanka “could potentially put the submarine carrying Kalibrs out of action for a long time,” Military Informant noted.

After losing no fewer than 15 of its vessels to Ukrainian missiles and explosive drone boats, the Black Sea Fleet has nine ships left that can fire Kalibrs at Ukraine: the frigates Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov along with maybe three corvettes and the two surviving Kilos.

Many of those ships were visible in the SBU’s video of the Sub Sea Baby attack in Novorossiysk. All that is to say, the Black Sea Fleet’s best ships are extremely vulnerable to attacks from the air and the surface … and now below the surface.

The Black Sea Fleet once also operated from Sevastopol in Crimea but Ukrainian drone boats and missiles “ousted” the Russians from the Crimean port, according to the SBU. The Russian fleet is running out of places to hide.

Thanks for reading Trench Art! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, December 15, 2025 2:37 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Pokrovsk is fully under Ukrainian control dummy.

SIGNY:
BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!
*gasp!*
Hahahahaha!

THGR:
I don't see a denial. You were touting how Russia had taken Pokrovsk just last week. I said, not so fast. You insisted...

And I don't see a relevant link. I skipped thru your video. It features a guy blabbing in front of a map that was drawn by ... him, probably... but unlike Military Summary it doesn't link to DRONE VIDEOS from BOTH sides showing drone, bomb, and missile attacks, of Russian soldiers waving flags in various places in Pokrovsk and elsewhere.

Kiev has a history of lying its ass off, painting evidence-free maps however it feels, and you don't think to question a guy whose sweatshirt has AZOV [NAZI] on it??

Ok, dummy. I literally burst out laughing reading your post. But if that's not enough of a denial ... if my continuing posts about Russian progress in the Pokrovsk/ Myrnograd pocket aren't enough ... here's the denial you seem to need:

Russia is in control of Pokrovsk, and the area around Myrnograd has shrunk to about 20% of the city's footprint.

You're so wrong, it's astonishing.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, December 15, 2025 2:58 PM

Keep it real please

Is China Preparing a Russia Far East Takeover Scenario? Here’s the Evidence

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, December 15, 2025 3:37 PM

Keep it real please

Oh no comrade...

T

BREAKING: Ukraine DESTROYS Massive $500M Russian Submarine; Putin Escalation IMMINENT

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, December 15, 2025 5:32 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz compared Russian President Vladimir Putin to Adolf Hitler in a speech Saturday evening, warning that the Kremlin leader’s ambitions won’t stop with Ukraine.

“Just as the Sudetenland was not enough in 1938, Putin will not stop,” Merz said, referring to a part of Czechoslovakia that the Allies ceded to the Nazi leader with an agreement. Hitler continued his expansion into Europe after that.

“If Ukraine falls, he won’t stop there,” Merz said, referring to Putin. “This is a Russian aggressive war against Ukraine — and against Europe.”

Putin’s aim is “a fundamental change to the borders in Europe, the restoration of the old Soviet Union within its borders,” the German chancellor warned.

https://www.politico.eu/article/merz-compares-putin-to-hitler/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, December 15, 2025 5:40 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

For the first time, Ukrainian company to co-produce drones in Germany on industrial scale

December 15, 2025 8:45 pm

by Martin Fornusek

https://kyivindependent.com/joint-venture-launching-first-industrial-s
cale-production-of-drones-for-ukraine-in-europe/

Quantum Systems and Frontline Robotics announced on Dec. 15 a joint Ukrainian-German venture to launch the first "industrial-scale" foreign-based production of drones for Ukraine's military.

Quantum Systems, a Germany-based tech company, and Ukrainian firm Frontline Robotics unveiled the new Quantum Frontline Industries (QFI) venture during the German-Ukrainian Economic Forum in Berlin.

Under this new project, QFI will produce Frontline Industries-designed and battlefield-proven drones in Germany and deliver them to Ukraine in volumes defined by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

The venture comes as part of Ukraine's push to deepen defense industry cooperation with Western partners amid Russia's full-scale invasion.

Ukraine is widely seen as a pioneer in drone technology, with unmanned systems emerging as one of the most critical and rapidly evolving aspects of its war with Russia.

"Ukrainians have revolutionized the drone war, now we will revolutionize the industrial war together," said Sven Kruck, Co-CEO of Quantum Systems, in a press release.

"This cooperation will supply the Defense Forces of Ukraine with thousands of drones to drive back the Russian aggressor," commented Yevhen Tretiak, CEO of Frontline Robotics, saying it can "pave the way for future collaborations of this kind."

The venture builds on a strategic partnership signed by the two companies earlier this year.

The announcement comes as Germany unveiled a 10-point plan for strengthening Ukraine's defense during a visit by President Volodymyr Zelensky to Berlin for peace talks with U.S. envoys.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/germany-deepens-com
mitment-ukraines-defence-10-point-plan-2025-12-15/

Under the new framework, Ukraine and Germany aim to cooperate more closely on defense-related research and procurement and pursue joint defense ventures.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, December 15, 2025 7:04 PM