REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Thursday, January 30, 2025 08:21
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Sunday, January 5, 2025 5:08 AM

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The Pay Is Great In the Russian Army (compared to civilian employment)

The Russian government continues to increase financial incentives in order to boost the recruitment of military personnel. Russian opposition outlets Astra and Mobilization News reported on January 4 that Russian officials in Samara Oblast increased one-time lump payments for signing a contract with the Russian military to four million rubles, which Samara Oblast officials characterized as the highest one-time payment currently offered in Russia.[61] A Ukrainian source reported on January 4 that recruitment posters show that Voronezh Oblast increased one-time payments to individuals who refer someone else to sign a military contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) by 50 percent to 75 thousand rubles - just two weeks after Voronezh Oblast officials last increased the one-time payment (since about December 21).[62]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-4-2025

A one-time lump payment of 4 million rubles is 3 years’ salary compared to the average yearly salary for civilians of around 1.24 million rubles, or roughly $14,771.
https://www.google.com/search?q=what+is+the+medium+salary+in+Russia

Being paid 3 years salary immediately makes the Russian Army a better deal for a soldier than the US Army. And if you die? Putin pays 13 million rubles. You die rich. The smart financial move is for all Russians to sign a military contract, receive 3 years pay, then die in battle. Think of how much wealthier your family will be after a glorious fight to death.
https://www.intellinews.com/how-much-is-a-russian-soldier-s-life-worth
-347848/

Debts of up to 10 million rubles would be canceled for individuals who sign military contracts or are mobilized on or after Dec. 1, 2024.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241123-putin-signs-law-letting
-ukraine-fighters-write-off-bad-debts

In the USA, a single, 18-year-old enlisted member at the starting rank — pay grade E-1 with less than four months of service — receives, on average, a starting annual regular military compensation package of approximately $43,500 in basic pay, basic allowance for housing, basic allowance for subsistence and federal tax advantages, according to analysis by two senior officials who specialize in Army compensation and entitlements.
https://www.army.mil/article/276326/army_service_pays_off_for_new_sold
iers

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Sunday, January 5, 2025 5:08 AM

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Attacking With Tanks Is ‘Suicidal’ For the Russians

But Russian infantry can still make gains on foot.

By David Axe | Jan 4, 2025, 03:08pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/04/attacking-with-tanks-
is-suicidal-for-the-russians-as-ukraines-drones-dominate-the-result-is-zero/

Tiny explosive drones have rendered large-scale armored assaults practically suicidal all along the 800-mile front line of Russia’s 35-month wider war on Ukraine. “Every single time” Russian regiments attempt a vehicle assault, “the result is zero,” one Russian blogger lamented in a missive translated by Estonian analyst WarTranslated.

But that doesn’t mean the Russians can’t advance. Indeed, they are advancing—especially south of the fortress city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast and along the edges of the 250-square-mile salient a strong Ukrainian force carved out of western Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast in August.

They advance by leaving their vehicles behind and marching into battle on foot. “Infantry, with the support of artillery and drones, slowly but surely take tree line after tree line,” the blogger noted.

The Russians are leaning toward a new infantry-first doctrine “partly [to] reduce equipment losses, but also due to a general inability to overcome prepared defenses covered by pervasive reconnaissance and strike [drones],” explained Michael Kofman, a senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment in Washington, D.C. Scattered infantry are harder to target than long lines of vehicles.

However, some Russian commanders keep trying with their tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and improvised combat vehicles including vans, cars and golf carts. But “no one reaches the objective, no troops are dismounted and the enemy isn’t shredded by the fire of autocannons,” the blogger complained.

The blogger sarcastically referred to the officers behind these “suicidal runs” as “geniuses.” In sending vehicles and their crews on pointless “banzai attacks” across the drone-patrolled no-man’s-land, the tank commanders gain nothing, lose everything and “provide uplifting content for the armed forces of Ukraine,” whose drones record the destruction of every Russian column.

The Russians’ shift to infantry assaults puts pressure on the Ukrainians to counter these assaults—with their own infantry. But a deepening shortage of trigger-pullers is one of the biggest problems inside the Ukrainian armed forces as the wider war grinds toward its fourth year.

Tatarigami, the founder of the Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight, blames the brass in Kyiv. “Ukraine’s leaders neglected to prepare for wartime mobilization, convinced large wars were a thing of the past,” Tatarigami wrote. “Tough recruitment decisions during the war were also delayed to balance public approval with the military's increasing needs.”

Struggling to mobilize enough fresh infantry to make good losses while also forming new units, the Ukrainian military has gotten desperate—and begun poaching specialists from their support units and sending them to the front line. “Mortar crews, drivers or drone operators end up in the trenches,” Tatarigami reported. “This drains support units and sends untrained soldiers into combat.”

Ironically, the poaching of drone units in order to bolster infantry units—a band-aid approach to countering Russian infantry assaults—risks gutting the very forces that have compelled the Russians to attack mostly on foot. If Ukrainian commanders send too many drone operators to the front line to fight as infantry, they might inadvertently make it safer for Russian vehicles to attack again.

Sources:
1. WarTranslated https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1875289442765967650
2. Michael Kofman https://x.com/KofmanMichael/status/1875568044648583213
3. Tatarigami https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1875597764387914220

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Sunday, January 5, 2025 5:58 AM

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Russia's Disastrous Winter War on Finland Could Give Clues on Ukraine Endgame

By Brendan Cole | Jan 05, 2025 at 4:00 AM EST

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-winter-war-finland-stalin-2008
263

Joseph Stalin's 1939 invasion of Finland has been compared to Vladimir Putin's aggression in Ukraine amid questions over whether a deal that followed the Winter War could be a blueprint for a conflict eight and a half decades later.

But Helsinki has warned Kyiv must not follow the lead of the agreement that followed the war started by the Soviet dictator which established the framework for what is known as "Finlandization."

The 1948 Finno-Soviet treaty allowed Finland to keep its independence but at the cost of becoming demilitarized, remaining neutral and aligning foreign policy decisions with Moscow. One Finnish expert told Newsweek that such a model for Ukraine "belongs to the bin" and would only serve Putin's interests.

Similar Wars Eight Decades Apart

Moscow's invasions of Finland on November 30, 1939 and of Ukraine in 2022 were both preceded by failed talks, and Moscow possessing an overwhelming equipment advantage and expectations it would easily win.

"Stalin, just like Putin, thought that the war would be over in just a few days," Pekka Kallioniemi, postdoctoral researcher at Tampere University in Finland and creator of Vatnik Soup which analyses Russian disinformation, told Newsweek.

"The plan was that the war would be finished in about three weeks, so that Finland could be given to Stalin as a 'birthday present' on the 21st of December," he said of the conflict that started on November 30.

Moscow had demanded its neighbor, which had been part of tsarist Russia until 1917, cede border territories citing security reasons. Fast forward to 2022, Putin claimed "denazifying" Ukraine and keeping it neutral justified his full-scale invasion.

"Stalin blamed the Finnish leadership as being fascist, and the idea with the invasion was to create a buffer zone between Germany and the USSR," said Kallioniemi.

"The Soviets also orchestrated several false flag operations before and during the Winter War, and the war actually started after the Soviets shelled their own troops in Mainila," he said, referring to an incident in Karelia carried out by the Soviet NKVD security agency.

"The Soviet army had so-called political commissars, who made sure that unmotivated soldiers didn't flee," he added. "Similar strategies have allegedly been used by PMC Wagner while sending waves of untrained soldiers to the frontlines."

Finland repelled Soviet attacks and inflicted substantial losses on the invaders in temperatures as low as -45°F. "Stalin sent a lot of Ukrainian soldiers to fight against Finns with very basic equipment, and a lot of them froze to death," he said. "Photos from one of the most brutal battles, the Battle of Raate Road, resemble photos from the first months of the war in Ukraine."

'Finlandization'

Finland fought valiantly for its sovereignty but Stalin still achieved territorial objectives. This experience has informed Helsinki's warnings against Kyiv agreeing to any demands that it shelve its NATO aspirations.

Finland's foreign minister Elina Valtonen said forcing neutrality onto Ukraine will not bring about a peaceful solution and Russia could not be trusted to adhere to any agreement it signs. "Let's face it, Ukraine was neutral before they were attacked by Russia," Valtonen told Reuters in November.

"Finlandization is a model that belongs to the bin," said Sari Arho Havrén, visiting scholar at the University of Helsinki and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

"To suggest such a model for Ukraine serves foremost Russia and Putin," she told Newsweek. "We live in a very different time, and the circumstances are entirely different. For Finland, it was a game of survival. It was seen as a temporary evil while balancing between the West and the Soviet Union."

"Suggesting Finland's history as a viable model to Ukraine not only tries to whitewash Finlandization into a desirable and durable form of governance," she added.

After decades of neutrality and spurred by Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, Finland finally joined NATO in April 2023. But Arho Havrén said any so-called Finlandization deal "veils the idea that Ukraine could not be granted NATO membership," even though Ukraine has pursued Euro-Atlantic integration over the last two decades.

"The problem with the Finlandization of Ukraine is not Ukraine—it's Russia," said Konstantin Sonin, a Russian-born professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and a vehement Putin critic.

"The Finlandization of Ukraine is exactly what was tried between 1991 and 2014 in some sense," he told Newsweek. "Until 2022, Russia had enormous influence over Ukraine—perhaps more than the Soviet Union had over Finland."

"If Ukrainians would be asked, 'could we go back to 2020 and somehow have a guarantee that Russia would not do what it did in 2022?' hypothetically they might have agreed to this," he added.

More at https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-winter-war-finland-stalin-2008
263

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Monday, January 6, 2025 2:31 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
US 'Quietly' Sent Heavy Weapons To Ukraine Well Before Invasion Started, Blinken Reveals

The United States is currently dealing with conflicts in multiple hot spots from Eastern Europe to Gaza to dealing with a collapsed Syrian state and continued standoff with Iran over its nuclear program.

But the Biden administration regrets nothing - so says Biden's Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a major end of term interview given to the NY Times and published this weekend. Among the more interesting pieces of new information from the interview is Blinken's direct admission that Washington was covertly shipping heavy weapons to Ukraine even months before the Russian invasion of February 2022.

"We made sure that well before [Russia's 'special military operation'] happened, starting in September and then again in December, we quietly got a lot of weapons to Ukraine," he said in the interview published Saturday. "Things like Stingers, Javelins."
AFP/Getty Images

The Kremlin at the time cited such covert transfers, which were perhaps an 'open secret', as justification for the invasion based on 'demilitarizing' Ukraine and keeping NATO military infrastructure out. Moscow had issued many warnings over its 'red lines' in the weeks and months leading up to the war.

Below is the full section from the NY Times interview transcript where Blinken boasts of the pre-invasion transfers:


MORE AT https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-quietly-sent-heavy-weapons-u
kraine-well-invasion-started-blinken-reveals

So much for Russias "unprovoked" invasion of Ukraine.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Monday, January 6, 2025 5:26 AM

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Ukrainian forces resumed offensive operations in at least three areas within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and made tactical advances on January 5. . . . Russian milbloggers largely expressed concern that the renewed Ukrainian effort in Kursk Oblast may be a diversionary effort and claimed that it is too early to determine whether these operations in Kursk could be part of a future main effort.[6]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-5-2025

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Monday, January 6, 2025 5:04 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Ukraine American technicians target Belgorod with 8 ATCAMS. All shot down, Russian MoD says.

Ukrainian forces suffering heavy losses in Kursk.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Monday, January 6, 2025 6:30 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Ukrainians taking heavy losses in Kursk, Dima, Military Summary Channel



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Tuesday, January 7, 2025 4:49 AM

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The Crew Of A Ukrainian Stryker Turned The Vehicle Into A Weapon—And Ran Over At Least One Hapless Russian

The Stryker crew’s bloodlust was chilling ... and necessary for Ukraine to win.

By David Axe | Jan 6, 2025, 07:30pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/06/the-crew-of-a-ukraini
an-stryker-turned-the-vehicle-into-a-weapon-and-ran-over-at-least-one-hapless-russian/

Against all odds, Ukrainian forces went on the attack on Sunday. Assault groups anchored by Ukraine’s independent air assault forces rolled out from their trenches and basement bunkers on the northern edge of the 250-square-mile salient Ukrainian troops hold in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast and, despite being outnumbered three-to-one all along the salient, advanced as far as two miles.

The fighting in and around the village of Berdin was fierce. Drones pummeled attackers and defenders alike. Ukrainian and Russian infantry were close enough to each other to fire short-range grenade launchers. And one Ukrainian crew turned their eight-wheeled Stryker infantry fighting vehicle into a weapon—and ran down, and over, at least one hapless Russian soldier trying to dodge on foot.

The brutal daytime incident on a snow-blanketed field somewhere in Kursk was dispassionately observed by at least two Ukrainian surveillance drones. As the drones streamed video, the 19-ton Stryker accelerated across the field, turning sharply to line up on Russian soldiers caught unprotected in the snow.

It’s apparent from the footage that the speedy Stryker, normally crewed by two soldiers, struck someone. Whether that someone lived or died is unclear. Injured or dead, they’re just another broken body in a war that has killed and maimed more than a million people on both sides in 35 bloody months.

Only the circumstances are unique. Why were the Russians all alone and unsupported? Why didn’t the Stryker crew open fire with the vehicle’s top-mounted machine gun instead of running down, with great effort and at great risk, its victim or victims?

It’s possible to answer both questions. If the Ukrainians advanced quickly enough, taking the defending Russians by surprise, they may have succeeded in cutting off a few outlying Russian positions and the unfortunate troops occupying them. That kind of confused fighting has characterized the battle for Kursk ever since a strong Ukrainian forces invaded the oblast back in August.

As for the Stryker crew’s motives—it’s possible the vehicle’s gun jammed or ran out of ammunition. Equally possible: the automotive slaughter was nothing more than bloodlust.

If the latter, it’s an important indicator of the morale and will to fight of at least one vehicle crew in a military that admittedly has thousands of them. Hatred of the enemy, and an eagerness to kill them, is a prerequisite for victory in a young army facing a more established foe.

Cultivating this hatred is difficult. It comes with time and painful experience. When the fledgling U.S. Army first deployed to battle the war-hardened Nazi Germans in North Africa in 1942, the absence of hatred among many of the American rank and file contributed to initially poor results, according to historian Rick Atkinson writing in his seminal history An Army At Dawn.

George Patton, the legendary tank general who helped lead the Americans in Africa, complained that he needed officers who could “sweat, get mad and think at the same time.” Moreover, he needed “men with an adequate hatred of Germans,” Atkinson wrote.

It took some bitter losses in the African desert to teach the Americans that hatred 83 years ago—but they ultimately did learn. The Ukrainians, many of whom were civilians as recently as three years ago and joined the military only after Russia widened its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, may have been quicker to internalize that vital hatred of a foreign attacker.

If one bloodthirsty vehicle crew going out of its way to run over a defenseless Russian is any indication, the hatred now runs deep.

Sources:

1. Ukrainian air assault forces https://x.com/moklasen/status/1876330446599930050

2. An Army At Dawn https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780805062885/anarmyatdawn/

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Tuesday, January 7, 2025 4:53 AM

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Losses caused by Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant disaster reach US$14 billion

By Viktor Volokita | Monday, 6 January 2025, 15:20

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/01/6/7492229/

The value of the losses caused as a result of the Russians blowing up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) has reached about US$14 billion.

Source: Svitlana Hrynchuk, Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine, in an interview with the Rada TV channel, as reported by Interfax-Ukraine. https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1038865.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, January 7, 2025 12:17 PM

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‘They didn’t give a s**t’ — Zelensky rebukes those behind Budapest Memorandum

By The Kyiv Independent news desk | January 6, 2025 1:26 PM

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-rebukes-budapest-memorandum-signa
tories/

President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview published on Jan. 5 that those responsible for pressuring Kyiv to sign the Budapest Memorandum should be jailed, and signatory countries who gave security assurances "didn’t give a s**t" about Ukraine.

Speaking in the interview with American podcaster Lex Fridman, Zelensky said Ukraine tried multiple times to have the terms of the agreement enforced but received no responses.

The Budapest Memorandum was signed on Dec. 5, 1994, and saw Ukraine sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and give up nuclear weapons left on its territory after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

In exchange, Kyiv received security assurances from the U.S., the U.K., and Russia. China and France gave weaker assurances at the same time. All countries agreed to engage in varying levels of consultations in the event of Ukraine's territorial integrity being threatened.

Twenty years after signing the agreement, Russia launched a war against Ukraine, occupying Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine. Thirty years in, Russia is now actively conducting a full-scale offensive against Ukraine.

In the interview with Fridman, Zelensky said Ukrainian officials requested consultations three times over several years from the start of Russia’s aggression in 2014.

"Everyone should be in consultation. Everyone must come. Everyone must meet urgently, the U.S., Britain, Russia, France, China," he said.

"Did anyone come, you ask? No. Did anyone reply to these letters, official letters? They are all recorded by diplomats. Did anyone conduct consultations?

"No, and why not? They didn’t give a s**t."

Zelensky said Ukraine was pressured into signing the Budapest Memorandum, and those who came up with the agreement should be jailed.

"We were under the pressure of the U.S. and Russia for Ukraine to give up (nuclear weapons). These two powers were exerting pressure," he said.

"These two states negotiated to ensure that Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons. Ukraine agreed. Now we just need to find these people, and we just need to put in jail all of those who, frankly, invented all this."

Last year marked the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Budapest Memorandum, an occasion Zelensky remarked on during his evening address on Dec. 5.

"Today marks 30 years of the Budapest Memorandum. Ten years of war. Not a single day did this document work," Zelensky said at the time.

"And because of this, everyone in the world will now know that a mere signature — by any state — or any assurances or promises are not enough for security."

*****************

Zelensky takes on Putin apologists, US skeptics on 3-hour Lex Fridman podcast

By Kate Tsurkan | January 6, 2025 9:38 PM

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-takes-on-putin-apologists-us-skep
tics-on-3-hour-lex-fridman-podcast/

Interview of Volodymyr Zelenskyy with American podcaster Lex Fridman



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Tuesday, January 7, 2025 12:39 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
SECOND:
The value of the losses caused as a result of the Russians blowing up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) ...


Oh, puhleez.

Saying Russians blew up a dam that they controlled makes as much sense as saying they blew up their own pipelines!

If Russia wanted to flood downstream all they needed to do was open the flood gates. Then they could refill the reservoir to impede a Ukrainian attack on the ZNPP. Because, right now, the ZNPP has no physical barrier to the west.

It's safest to assume that all of your posts are lies, since 99% are. And who has the time to refute every one of your shit-splatters? Certainly not me!




-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Tuesday, January 7, 2025 1:25 PM

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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
SECOND:
The value of the losses caused as a result of the Russians blowing up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) ...


Oh, puhleez.

Saying Russians blew up a dam that they controlled makes as much sense as saying they blew up their own pipelines!

If Russia wanted to flood downstream all they needed to do was open the flood gates. Then they could refill the reservoir to impede a Ukrainian attack on the ZNPP. Because, right now, the ZNPP has no physical barrier to the west.

It's safest to assume that all of your posts are lies, since 99% are. And who has the time to refute every one of your shit-splatters? Certainly not me!
Let's go to the wiki to find where your answer came from. Wiki says: "Russian authorities have denied the accusation." Signym, I am not surprised that your answer matches Russia's answer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_the_Kakhovka_Dam

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Wednesday, January 8, 2025 6:53 AM

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Trump Is Facing a Catastrophic Defeat in Ukraine

If Ukraine falls, it will be hard to spin as anything but a debacle for the United States, and for its president.

By Robert Kagan | January 7, 2025, 1:04 PM ET

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/01/trump-putin-
ukraine-russia-war/681228/

Vice-president Elect J. D. Vance once said that he doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine. We will soon find out whether the American people share his indifference, because if there is not soon a large new infusion of aid from the United States, Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.

This poses an immediate problem for Donald Trump. He promised to settle the war quickly upon taking office, but now faces the hard reality that Vladimir Putin has no interest in a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine intact as a sovereign nation. Putin also sees an opportunity to strike a damaging blow at American global power. Trump must now choose between accepting a humiliating strategic defeat on the global stage and immediately redoubling American support for Ukraine while there’s still time. The choice he makes in the next few weeks will determine not only the fate of Ukraine but also the success of his presidency.

The end of an independent Ukraine is and always has been Putin’s goal. While foreign-policy commentators spin theories about what kind of deal Putin might accept, how much territory he might demand, and what kind of security guarantees, demilitarized zones, and foreign assistance he might permit, Putin himself has never shown interest in anything short of Ukraine’s complete capitulation. Before Russia’s invasion, many people couldn’t believe that Putin really wanted all of Ukraine. His original aim was to decapitate the government in Kyiv, replace it with a government subservient to Moscow, and through that government control the entire country. Shortly after the invasion was launched, as Russian forces were still driving on Ukraine, Putin could have agreed to a Ukrainian offer to cede territory to Russia, but even then he rejected any guarantees for Ukrainian security. Today, after almost three years of fighting, Putin’s goals have not changed: He wants it all.

Putin’s stated terms for a settlement have been consistent throughout the war: a change of government in Kyiv in favor of a pro-Russian regime; “de-Nazification,” his favored euphemism for extinguishing Ukrainian nationalism; demilitarization, or leaving Ukraine without combat power sufficient to defend against another Russian attack; and “neutrality,” meaning no ties with Western organizations such as NATO or the EU, and no Western aid programs aimed at shoring up Ukrainian independence. Western experts filling the op-ed pages and journals with ideas for securing a post-settlement Ukraine have been negotiating with themselves. Putin has never agreed to the establishment of a demilitarized zone, foreign troops on Ukrainian soil, a continuing Ukrainian military relationship with the West of any kind, or the survival of Volodymyr Zelensky’s government or any pro-Western government in Kyiv.

Some hopeful souls argue that Putin will be more flexible once talks begin. But this is based on the mistaken assumption that Putin believes he needs a respite from the fighting. He doesn’t. Yes, the Russian economy is suffering. Yes, Russian losses at the front remain staggeringly high. Yes, Putin lacks the manpower both to fight and to produce vital weaponry and is reluctant to risk political upheaval by instituting a full-scale draft. If the war were going to drag on for another two years or more, these problems might eventually force Putin to seek some kind of truce, perhaps even the kind of agreement Americans muse about. But Putin thinks he’s going to win sooner than that, and he believes that Russians can sustain their present hardships long enough to achieve victory.

Are we so sure he’s wrong? Have American predictions about Russia’s inability to withstand “crippling” sanctions proved correct so far? Western sanctions have forced Russians to adapt and adjust, to find work-arounds on trade, oil, and financing, but although those adjustments have been painful, they have been largely successful. Russia’s GDP grew by more than 3 percent in 2023 and is expected to have grown by more than 3 percent again in 2024, driven by heavy military spending. The IMF’s projections for 2025 are lower, but still anticipate positive growth. Putin has been re-Sovietizing the economy: imposing market and price controls, expropriating private assets, and turning the focus toward military production and away from consumers’ needs. This may not be a successful long-term economic strategy, but in the long term, we are all dead. Putin believes Russia can hold on long enough to win this war.

It is not at all clear that Putin even seeks the return to normalcy that peace in Ukraine would bring. In December, he increased defense spending to a record $126 billion, 32.5 percent of all government spending, to meet the needs of the Ukraine war. Next year, defense spending is projected to reach 40 percent of the Russian budget. (By comparison, the world’s strongest military power, the U.S., spends 16 percent of its total budget on defense.) Putin has revamped the Russian education system to instill military values from grade school to university. He has appointed military veterans to high-profile positions in government as part of an effort to forge a new Russian elite, made up, as Putin says, exclusively of “those who serve Russia, hard workers and [the] military.” He has resurrected Stalin as a hero. Today, Russia looks outwardly like the Russia of the Great Patriotic War, with exuberant nationalism stimulated and the smallest dissent brutally repressed.

Is all of this just a temporary response to the war, or is it also the direction Putin wants to steer Russian society? He talks about preparing Russia for the global struggles ahead. Continuing conflict justifies continuing sacrifice and continuing repression. Turning such transformations of society on and off and on again like a light switch—as would be necessary if Putin agreed to a truce and then, a couple of years later, resumed his attack—is not so easy. Could he demand the same level of sacrifice during the long, peaceful interlude? For Putin, making Russians press ahead through the pain to seek victory on the battlefield may be the easier path. The Russian people have historically shown remarkable capacity for sacrifice under the twin stimuli of patriotism and terror. To assume that Russia can’t sustain this war economy long enough to outlast the Ukrainians would be foolish. One more year may be all it takes. Russia faces problems, even serious problems, but Putin believes that without substantial new aid Ukraine’s problems are going to bring it down sooner than Russia.

That is the key point: Putin sees the timelines working in his favor. Russian forces may begin to run low on military equipment in the fall of 2025, but by that time Ukraine may already be close to collapse. Ukraine can’t sustain the war another year without a new aid package from the United States. Ukrainian forces are already suffering from shortages of soldiers, national exhaustion, and collapsing morale. Russia’s casualty rate is higher than Ukraine’s, but there are more Russians than Ukrainians, and Putin has found a way to keep filling the ranks, including with foreign fighters. As one of Ukraine’s top generals recently observed, “the number of Russian troops is constantly increasing.” This year, he estimates, has brought 100,000 additional Russian troops to Ukrainian soil. Meanwhile, lack of equipment prevents Ukraine from outfitting reserve units.

Ukrainian morale is already sagging under Russian missile and drone attacks and the prolonged uncertainty about whether the United States’ vital and irreplaceable support will continue. What happens if that uncertainty becomes certainty, if the next couple of months make clear that the United States is not going to provide a new aid package? That alone could be enough to cause a complete collapse of Ukrainian morale on the military and the home front. But Ukraine has another problem, too. Its defensive lines are now so shallow that if Russian troops break through, they may be able to race west toward Kyiv.

Putin believes he is winning. “The situation is changing dramatically,” he observed in a recent press conference. “We’re moving along the entire front line every day.” His foreign-intelligence chief, Sergei Naryshkin, recently declared, “We are close to achieving our goals, while the armed forces of Ukraine are on the verge of collapse.” That may be an exaggeration for now, but what matters is that Putin believes it. As Naryshkin’s comments affirm, Putin today sees victory within his grasp, more than at any other time since the invasion began.

Things may be tough for Putin now, but Russia has come a long way since the war’s first year. The disastrous failure of his initial invasion left his troops trapped and immobilized, their supply lines exposed and vulnerable, as the West acted in unison to oppose him and provide aid to a stunningly effective Ukrainian counterattack. That first year of the war marked a peak moment of American leadership and alliance solidarity and a low point for Putin. For many months, he effectively fought the entire world with little help from anyone else. There must have been moments when he thought he was going to lose, although even then he would not give up on his maximalist goals.

But he clawed his way back, and circumstances today are far more favorable for Russia, both in Ukraine and internationally. His forces on the ground are making steady progress—at horrific cost, but Putin is willing to pay it so long as Russians tolerate it and he believes that victory is in sight.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s lifeline to the U.S. and the West has never been more imperiled. After three years of dealing with an American administration trying to help Ukraine defend itself, Putin will soon have an American president and a foreign-policy team who have consistently opposed further aid to Ukraine. The transatlantic alliance, once so unified, is in disarray, with America’s European allies in a panic that Trump will pull out of NATO or weaken their economies with tariffs, or both. Europe itself is at a low point; political turmoil in Germany and France has left a leadership vacuum that will not be filled for months, at best. If Trump cuts off or reduces aid to Ukraine, as he has recently suggested he would, then not only will Ukraine collapse but the divisions between the U.S. and its allies, and among the Europeans themselves, will deepen and multiply. Putin is closer to his aim of splintering the West than at any other time in the quarter century since he took power.

Is this a moment at which to expect Putin to negotiate a peace deal? A truce would give Ukrainians time to breathe and restore their damaged infrastructure as well as their damaged psyches. It would allow them to re-arm without expending the weapons they already have. It would reduce the divisions between the Trump administration and its European allies. It would spare Trump the need to decide whether to seek an aid package for Ukraine and allow him to focus on parts of the world where Russia is more vulnerable, such as the post-Assad Middle East. Today Putin has momentum on his side in what he regards, correctly, as the decisive main theater. If he wins in Ukraine, his loss in Syria will look trivial by comparison. If he hasn’t blinked after almost three years of misery, hardship, and near defeat, why would he blink now when he believes, with reason, that he is on the precipice of such a massive victory?

A Russian victory means the end of Ukraine. Putin’s aim is not an independent albeit smaller Ukraine, a neutral Ukraine, or even an autonomous Ukraine within a Russian sphere of influence. His goal is no Ukraine. “Modern Ukraine,” he has said, “is entirely the product of the Soviet era.” Putin does not just want to sever Ukraine’s relationships with the West. He aims to stamp out the very idea of Ukraine, to erase it as a political and cultural entity.

This is not a new Russian goal. Like his pre-Soviet predecessors, Putin regards Ukrainian nationalism itself as a historic threat that predates the “color revolutions” of the early 2000s and NATO enlargement in the 1990s—that even predates the American Revolution. In Putin’s mind, the threat posed by Ukrainian nationalism goes back to the exploitation of Ukrainians by the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the 15th and 16th centuries, to the machinations of the Austrian empire in the 18th and 19th centuries, and to the leveraging of Ukrainian nationalist hatred of Russia during World War II by the Germans. So Putin’s call for “de-Nazification” is not just about removing the Zelensky government, but an effort to stamp out all traces of an independent Ukrainian political and cultural identity.

The vigorous Russification that Putin’s forces have been imposing in Crimea and the Donbas and other conquered Ukrainian territories is evidence of the deadly seriousness of his intent. International human-rights organizations and journalists, writing in The New York Times, have documented the creation in occupied Ukraine of “a highly institutionalized, bureaucratic and frequently brutal system of repression run by Moscow” comprising “a gulag of more than 100 prisons, detention facilities, informal camps and basements” across an area roughly the size of Ohio. According to a June 2023 report by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, nearly all Ukrainians released from this gulag reported being subjected to systematic torture and abuse by Russian authorities. Tortures ranged from “punching and cutting detainees, putting sharp objects under fingernails, hitting with batons and rifle butts, strangling, waterboarding, electrocution, stress positions for long periods, exposure to cold temperatures or to a hot box, deprivation of water and food, and mock executions or threats.” Much of the abuse has been sexual, with women and men raped or threatened with rape. Hundreds of summary executions have been documented, and more are likely—many of the civilians detained by Russia have yet to be seen again. Escapees from Russian-occupied Ukraine speak of a “prison society” in which anyone with pro-Ukrainian views risks being sent “to the basement,” where torture and possible death await.

This oppression has gone well beyond the military rationale of identifying potential threats to Russian occupying forces. “The majority of victims,” according to the State Department, have been “active or former local public officials, human rights defenders, civil society activists, journalists, and media workers.” According to the OHCHR, “Russia’s military and their proxies often detained civilians over suspicions regarding their political views, particularly related to pro-Ukrainian sentiments.”

Putin has decreed that all people in the occupied territories must renounce their Ukrainian citizenship and become Russian citizens or face deportation. Russian citizenship is required to send children to school, to register a vehicle, to get medical treatment, and to receive pensions. People without Russian passports cannot own farmland, vote, run for office, or register a religious congregation. In schools throughout the Russian-occupied territories, students learn a Russian curriculum and complete a Russian “patriotic education program” and early military training, all taught by teachers sent from the Russian Federation. Parents who object to this Russification risk having their children taken away and sent to boarding schools in Russia or occupied Crimea, where, Putin has decreed, they can be adopted by Russian citizens. By the end of 2023, Ukrainian officials had verified the names of 19,000 children relocated to schools and camps in Russia or to Russian-occupied territory. As former British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly put it in 2023, “Russia’s forcible deportation of innocent Ukrainian children is a systematic attempt to erase Ukraine’s future.”

So is the Russian effort to do away with any distinctively Ukrainian religion. In Crimea, Russian authorities have systematically attacked the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, harassed its members, and forced the Church to give up its lands. The largest Ukrainian Orthodox congregation in Crimea closed in 2019, following a decree by occupation authorities that its cathedral in Simferopol be “returned to the state.”

These horrors await the rest of Ukraine if Putin wins. Imagine what that will look like. More than 1 million Ukrainians have taken up arms against Russia since February 2022. What happens to them if, when the fighting stops, Russia has gained control of the entire country? What happens to the politicians, journalists, NGO workers, and human-rights activists who helped in innumerable ways to fight the Russian invaders? What happens to the millions of Ukrainians who, in response to Russia’s attack, have embraced their Ukrainian identity, adopted the Ukrainian language, revived Ukrainian (and invariably anti-Russian) historical narratives, and produced a nascent revival of Ukrainian culture? Russian-occupation authorities will seek to stamp out this resurgence of Ukrainian nationalism across the whole country. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will flee, putting enormous strain on Ukraine’s neighbors to the west. But thousands more will wind up in prison, facing torture or murder. Some commentators argue that it would be better to let Ukraine lose quickly because that, at least, would end the suffering. Yet for many millions of Ukrainians, defeat would be just the beginning of their suffering.

This is where Ukraine is headed unless nothing changes, and soon. Putin at this moment has no incentive to make any deal that leaves even part of Ukraine intact and independent. Only the prospect of a dramatic, near-term change in his military fortunes could force Putin to take a more accommodating course. He would have to believe that time is not on his side, that Ukraine will not fall within 12 months: that it will instead be supplied and equipped to fight as long as necessary, and that it can count on steady support from the United States and its allies. It’s hard to see why anything short of that would force Putin to veer from his determined drive toward victory.

Which brings us to President-Elect Donald Trump, who now finds himself in a trap only partly of his own devising. When Trump said during his campaign that he could end the war in 24 hours, he presumably believed what most observers believed: that Putin needed a respite, that he was prepared to offer peace in exchange for territory, and that a deal would include some kind of security guarantee for whatever remained of Ukraine. Because Trump’s peace proposal at the time was regarded as such a bad deal for Kyiv, most assumed Putin would welcome it. Little did they know that the deal was not remotely bad enough for Putin to accept. So now Trump is in the position of having promised a peace deal that he cannot possibly get without forcing Putin to recalculate.

Compounding Trump’s basic miscalculation is the mythology of Trump as strongman. It has been no small part of Trump’s aura and political success that many expect other world leaders to do his bidding. When he recently summoned the beleaguered Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to Mar-a-Lago and proceeded to humiliate him as “governor” of America’s “51st state,” Trump boosters in the media rejoiced at his ability to “project strength as the leader of the U.S. while making Trudeau look weak.” Many people, and not just Trump’s supporters, similarly assumed that the mere election of Trump would be enough to force Putin to agree to a peace deal. Trump’s tough-guy image and dealmaking prowess supposedly gave him, in the view of one former Defense official, “the power and the credibility with Putin to tell him he must make a just, lasting peace.”

It’s dangerous to believe your own shtick. Trump himself seemed to think that his election alone would be enough to convince Putin that it was time to cut a deal. In his debate with Kamala Harris, Trump said he would have the war “settled” before he even became president, that as president-elect he would get Putin and Zelensky together to make an agreement. He could do this because “they respect me; they don’t respect Biden.” Trump’s first moves following November 5 exuded confidence that Putin would accommodate the new sheriff in town. Two days after the election, in a phone call with Putin that Trump’s staff leaked to the press, Trump reportedly “advised the Russian president not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of Washington’s sizable military presence in Europe.” Beyond these veiled threats, Trump seems to think that something like friendship, high regard, or loyalty will facilitate dealmaking.

That Trump, the most transactional of men, could really believe that Putin would be moved by such sentiments is hard to credit. Days after the phone call in which Trump “advised” him not to escalate, Putin fired a hypersonic, nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine, and he’s been escalating ever since. He also had his spokesmen deny that any phone call had taken place. Even today, Putin insists that he and Trump have not spoken since the election.

Putin has also made clear that he is not interested in peace. As he observed in the days before the missile launch, “Throughout centuries of history, humanity has grown accustomed to resolving disputes by force. Yes, that happens too. Might makes right, and this principle also works.” In a message clearly aimed at Trump’s pretensions of power, Putin suggested that the West make a “rational assessment of events and its own capabilities.” His spokesmen have stated repeatedly that Putin has no interest in “freezing the conflict,” and that anyone who believes Moscow is ready to make concessions at all has either “a short memory or not enough knowledge of the subject.” They have also warned that U.S.-Russian relations are “teetering on the verge of rupture,” with the clear implication that it is up to Trump to repair the damage. Putin is particularly furious at President Joe Biden for finally lifting some of the restrictions on the Ukrainian use of the American long-range ATACMS missiles against Russian targets, threatening to fire intermediate-range ballistic missiles at U.S. and allied targets in response.

Trump has since backed off. When asked about the phone call, Trump these days won’t confirm that it ever happened—“I don’t want to say anything about that, because I don’t want to do anything that could impede the negotiation.” More significantly, he has begun making preemptive concessions in the hope of getting Putin to begin talks. He has declared that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO. He has suggested that Ukraine will receive less aid than it has been getting from the United States. And he has criticized Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use American-made ATACMS to strike Russian territory. Putin has simply pocketed all these concessions and offered nothing in return except a willingness to talk “without preconditions.” Now begin the negotiations about beginning the negotiations, while the clock ticks on Kyiv’s ability to endure.

So much for the idea that Putin would simply fold and accept a peace deal once he saw Donald Trump in charge. But what can Trump do now?

Quite a bit, actually. Putin can be forced to accept less than his maximal goals, especially by an American president willing to play genuine hardball. Trump’s reference in his phone call to the superiority of American power and its many troops and facilities in Europe was obviously designed to get Putin’s attention, and it might have if Putin thought Trump was actually prepared to bring all that power into the equation. The thing that Putin has most feared, and has bent over backwards to avoid provoking, is the United States and NATO’s direct involvement in the conflict. He must have been in a panic when his troops were bogged down and losing in Ukraine, vulnerable to NATO air and missile strikes. But the Biden administration refused to even threaten direct involvement, both when it knew Putin’s war plans months in advance, and after the initial invasion, when Putin’s troops were vulnerable. Trump’s supporters like to boast that one of his strengths in dealing with adversaries is his dangerous unpredictability. Hinting at U.S. forces becoming directly involved, as Trump reportedly did in his call with Putin, would certainly have confirmed that reputation. But Putin, one suspects, is not inclined to take such threats seriously without seeing real action to back them. After all, he knows all about bluffs—he paralyzed the Biden administration with them for the better part of three years.

Trump has a credibility problem, partly due to the Biden administration’s failures, but partly of his own making. Putin knows what we all know: that Trump wants out of Ukraine. He does not want to own the war, does not want to spend his first term in a confrontation with Russia, does not want the close cooperation with NATO and other allies that continuing support for Ukraine will require, and, above all, does not want to spend the first months of his new term pushing a Ukraine aid package through Congress after running against that aid. Putin also knows that even if Trump eventually changes his mind, perhaps out of frustration with Putin’s stalling, it will be too late. Months would pass before an aid bill made it through both houses and weaponry began arriving on the battlefield. Putin watched that process grind on last year, and he used the time well. He can afford to wait. After all, if eight months from now Putin feels the tide about to turn against him in the war, he can make the same deal then that Trump would like him to make now. In the meantime, he can continue pummeling the demoralized Ukrainians, taking down what remains of their energy grid, and shrinking the territory under Kyiv’s control.

No, in order to change Putin’s calculations, Trump would have to do exactly what he has not wanted to do so far: He would have to renew aid to the Ukrainians immediately, and in sufficient quantity and quality to change the trajectory on the battlefield. He would also have to indicate convincingly that he was prepared to continue providing aid until Putin either acquiesced to a reasonable deal or faced the collapse of his army. Such actions by Trump would change the timelines sufficiently to give Putin cause for concern. Short of that, the Russian president has no reason to talk about peace terms. He need only wait for Ukraine’s collapse.

Putin doesn’t care who the president of the United States is. His goal for more than two decades has been to weaken the U.S. and break its global hegemony and its leadership of the “liberal world order” so that Russia may resume what he sees as its rightful place as a European great power and an empire with global influence. Putin has many immediate reasons to want to subjugate Ukraine, but he also believes that victory will begin the unraveling of eight decades of American global primacy and the oppressive, American-led liberal world order. Think of what he can accomplish by proving through the conquest of Ukraine that even America’s No. 1 tough guy, the man who would “make America great again,” who garnered the support of the majority of American male voters, is helpless to stop him and to prevent a significant blow to American power and influence. In other words, think of what it will mean for Donald Trump’s America to lose. Far from wanting to help Trump, Putin benefits by humiliating him. It wouldn’t be personal. It would be strictly business in this “harsh” and “cynical” world.

Trump faces a paradox. He and many of his most articulate advisers and supporters share Putin’s hostility to the American order, of which NATO is a central pillar. Some even share his view that the American role in upholding that order is a form of imperialism, as well as a sucker’s bet for the average American. The old America First movement of the early 1940s tried to prevent the United States from becoming a global power with global responsibilities. The thrust of the new America First is to get the United States out of the global-responsibilities business. This is where the Trumpian right and some parts of the American left converge and why some on the left prefer Trump to his “neoliberal” and “neoconservative” opponents. Trump himself is no ideologist, but his sympathies clearly lie with those around the world who share a hatred of what they perceive to be the oppressive and bullying liberal world order, people such as Viktor Orbán, Nigel Farage, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Vladimir Putin.

Trump’s problem, however, is that unlike his fellow travelers in anti-liberalism, he will shortly be the president of the United States. The liberal world order is inseparable from American power, and not just because it depends on American power. America itself would not be so powerful without the alliances and the open international economic and political system that it built after World War II to protect its long-term interests. Trump can’t stop defending the liberal world order without ceding significantly greater influence to Russia and China. Like Putin, Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Un, and Ali Khamenei see the weakening of America as essential to their own ambitions. Trump may share their hostility to the liberal order, but does he also share their desire to weaken America and, by extension, himself?

Unfortunately for Trump, Ukraine is where this titanic struggle is being waged. Today, not only Putin but Xi, Kim, Khamenei, and others whom the American people generally regard as adversaries believe that a Russian victory in Ukraine will do grave damage to American strength everywhere. That is why they are pouring money, weaponry, and, in the case of North Korea, even their own soldiers into the battle. Whatever short-term benefits they may be deriving from assisting Russia, the big payoff they seek is a deadly blow to the American power and influence that has constrained them for decades.

What’s more, America’s allies around the world agree. They, too, believe that a Russian victory in Ukraine, in addition to threatening the immediate security of European states, will undo the American-led security system they depend on. That is why even Asian allies far from the scene of the war have been making their own contributions to the fight.

If Trump fails to support Ukraine, he faces the unpalatable prospect of presiding over a major strategic defeat. Historically, that has never been good for a leader’s political standing. Jimmy Carter looked weak when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, which was of far less strategic significance than Ukraine. Henry Kissinger, despite his Nobel Prize, was drummed out of the Republican Party in the mid-1970s in no small part because of America’s failure in Vietnam and the perception that the Soviet Union was on the march during his time in office. Joe Biden ended an unpopular war in Afghanistan, only to pay a political price for doing so. Barack Obama, who moved to increase American forces in Afghanistan, never paid a political price for extending the war. Biden paid that price in part because the exit from Afghanistan was, to say the least, messy. The fall of Ukraine will be far messier—and better televised. Trump has created and cherished an aura of power and toughness, but that can quickly vanish. When the fall of Ukraine comes, it will be hard to spin as anything but a defeat for the United States, and for its president.

This was not what Trump had in mind when he said he could get a peace deal in Ukraine. He no doubt envisioned being lauded as the statesman who persuaded Putin to make a deal, saving the world from the horrors of another endless war. His power and prestige would be enhanced. He would be a winner. His plans do not include being rebuffed, rolled over, and by most of the world’s judgment, defeated.

Whether Trump can figure out where the path he is presently following will lead him is a test of his instincts. He is not on the path to glory. And unless he switches quickly, his choice will determine much more than the future of Ukraine.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 8, 2025 10:29 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


As battles against Russia intensify, Ukraine’s manpower struggles worsen

By Mansur Mirovalev | 7 Jan 2025

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/7/as-battles-against-russia-inte
nsify-ukraines-manpower-struggles-worsen

He (Ukrainian serviceman) also cited poor decisions made by commanding officers, alleging they want to appease their superiors and do not value the lives of Ukrainian servicemen.

“I’ve been wounded so many times because of the commanders’ stupidity,” he said.

******

“Zelenskyy’s strategy is to amass brigades with equipment in the rear only to solemnly lose them in the land of Kursk to gain 1.5km [1 mile] of farmland,” Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany’s Bremen University, told Al Jazeera.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 8, 2025 12:29 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:
SECOND:
The value of the losses caused as a result of the Russians blowing up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) ...

SIGNY:
Oh, puhleez.

Saying Russians blew up a dam that they controlled makes as much sense as saying they blew up their own pipelines!

If Russia wanted to flood downstream all they needed to do was open the flood gates. Then they could refill the reservoir to impede a Ukrainian attack on the ZNPP. Because, right now, the ZNPP has no physical barrier to the west.

It's safest to assume that all of your posts are lies, since 99% are. And who has the time to refute every one of your shit-splatters? Certainly not me!


SECOND:
Let's go to the wiki to find where your answer came from. Wiki says: "Russian authorities have denied the accusation." Signym, I am not surprised that your answer matches Russia's answer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_the_Kakhovka_Dam

Wow, that's weak.
Is that all you got?

EXAMPLE OF YOUR FALSE LOGIC: If I said the sun rises in the east, and Putin also said the sun rises in the east, would that make the statement false?

Dood, you're not even trying!


*****

41 paragraphs of secondhand garbage!!
No wonder this thread is so long!!

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Wednesday, January 8, 2025 1:13 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:
SECOND:
The value of the losses caused as a result of the Russians blowing up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) ...

SIGNY:
Oh, puhleez.

Saying Russians blew up a dam that they controlled makes as much sense as saying they blew up their own pipelines!

If Russia wanted to flood downstream all they needed to do was open the flood gates. Then they could refill the reservoir to impede a Ukrainian attack on the ZNPP. Because, right now, the ZNPP has no physical barrier to the west.

It's safest to assume that all of your posts are lies, since 99% are. And who has the time to refute every one of your shit-splatters? Certainly not me!


SECOND:
Let's go to the wiki to find where your answer came from. Wiki says: "Russian authorities have denied the accusation." Signym, I am not surprised that your answer matches Russia's answer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_the_Kakhovka_Dam

Wow, that's weak.
Is that all you got?

EXAMPLE OF YOUR FALSE LOGIC: If I said the sun rises in the east, and Putin also said the sun rises in the east, would that make the statement false?

Dood, you're not even trying!


*****

41 paragraphs of secondhand garbage!!
No wonder this thread is so long!!
Here is Russia's side of issue:
Quote:
Russian reactions

Russian authorities blamed Ukraine, and Russian president Vladimir Putin called it "a barbaric act which has led to a large-scale environmental and humanitarian catastrophe".[264] Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called it a "sabotage" as a result of the Ukrainian armed forces "not achieving their goals".[53][265] Minister of Defence Sergey Shoigu said that Ukraine blew up the dam to "prevent Russian offensive in this sector of the front".[266] Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed governor of occupied Kherson oblast, said the dam breach "is operationally and tactically in favour of Russian forces".[267] TASS reported that flooding made a Ukrainian crossing of the Dnieper impossible.[268] Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the incident should be subject to a "worldwide study, research and investigation" and accused the West of having an "endless desire to blame Russia for everything".[269] On 13 June Putin once again spoke on the subject and stated that the destruction of the dam "thwarted Ukrainian offensive", and further suggested past HIMARS strikes were responsible for the disaster.[270]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_the_Kakhovka_Dam#Russian_
reactions

Both sides are in court, and we know how swiftly courts make decisions:
Quote:
Both Russia and Ukraine have appealed to the ICC and to the International Court of Justice (also known as the World Court), claiming that the other side is at fault.[253][254][255]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_the_Kakhovka_Dam#Legal_re
sponses

Once the court makes its decision, it will be like Russians shooting down MH17: "The judgment is unlikely to result in anyone serving time in jail for this mass murder, but the investigation has created an incontestable historical record and delivered the families some peace of mind."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63637625

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 9, 2025 6:33 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russia May Have Lost 400 Troops In One Battle

The village of Makhnovka is a killing field.

By David Axe | Jan 8, 2025, 04:02pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/08/russia-may-have-lost-
400-troops-in-one-battle/

Makhnovka, which lies in the no-man’s-land on the eastern edge of the 250-square-mile salient Ukrainian troops carved out of Kursk in August, has been the scene of fierce fighting for days. Videos circulating on social media depict Russian and North Korean troops marching into the village and coming under attack by Ukrainian infantry, tanks and drones.

Analyst Andrew Perpetua, who scrutinizes social media to tally Russian and Ukrainian losses, seemed to confirm the Russian casualties. “I feel like I just watched a whole Russian battalion die in a single video,” Perpetua noted on Monday. He claimed he visually confirmed 408 casualties in one day.

The four-mile stretch of the front line between Makhnovka in the north and Plekhove in the south isn’t the most intensive sector in Kursk. Clashes have been less frequent around Makhnovka than they’ve been around, say, Zelenyi Shylakh on the western side of the salient.

But it’s possible the individual fights in Makhnovka and Plekhove have been bloodier. Attacking in three waves across open fields outside the Plekhove on Dec. 14, more than 500 North Korean infantry eventually managed to eject the 100 Ukrainian troops holding the village.

But marching without much support across snowy fields, the North Koreans were easy targets for the retreating Ukrainians’ drones and artillery. North Korean losses—killed and wounded—may have accounted for more than half the attacking force, Ukrainian journalist Andriy Tsaplienko claimed.

Last weekend’s Russian attack on Makhnovka may have been even costlier—and less successful. Not only is Makhnovka still in the gray zone between Ukrainian and Russian control, there is some evidence that Ukrainian troops—possibly from the 61st Mechanized Brigade, 36th Separate Rifle Battalion or attached territorial brigades—actually advanced a short distance around the same time as many as 400 Russians lay dead or wounded on the same terrain.

The heavy casualties on the Russian and North Korean side is beginning to weigh on the two-month-old Russian-led counteroffensive in Kursk. “In Kursk Oblast, combat operations have intensified to the maximum level, forcing the Russian grouping there to expend all available resources,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported.

“This comes at an extremely inconvenient and disadvantageous time for them,” the group added. “If intensive fighting continues for another five to 10 days, the Russian grouping will need to be rapidly replenished, as it is already suffering significant losses in counter-battles. This replenishment can only be achieved by redeploying forces from other sections of the front.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 9, 2025 6:36 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian Assets Are Europe’s Trump Card

With the incoming administration seeking to cut U.S. aid to Ukraine, Europe should tap the Kremlin’s frozen reserves.

January 8, 2025 | By Adrian Karatnycky, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and the founder of Myrmidon Group.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/08/russia-frozen-assets-central-bank
-currency-reserves-ukraine-europe-trump/

Central to these concerns is how China might react. Beijing holds more than $3 trillion in hard currency reserves, of which 58 percent are in U.S. dollars, with most of the rest in euros, pounds, and yen. Were China to rapidly exit these holdings, it could potentially weaken several Western currencies and government bonds. But as the proponents of confiscation argue, Russia’s war is a uniquely egregious threat to the post-World War II order—and only the second instance since 1948 of an unprovoked military invasion and outright annexation of the territory of a U.N. member state. The one other instance of such a brazen violation of the United Nations Charter—a violation that was eventually reversed—was Iraq’s invasion and annexation of Kuwait in 1990; part of the U.S. response to that aggression was to confiscate Baghdad’s hard currency assets. (Israel’s Knesset controversially voted in 1981 to extend Israeli jurisdiction over the Golan Heights, a Syrian territory, but did not formally declare that territory’s annexation; this action, moreover, was taken in response to ongoing attacks on Israel.)

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 9, 2025 8:55 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Russia May Have Lost 400 Troops In One Battle

The village of Makhnovka is a killing field.

By David Axe | Jan 8, 2025, 04:02pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/08/russia-may-have-lost-
400-troops-in-one-battle/

Makhnovka, which lies in the no-man’s-land on the eastern edge of the 250-square-mile salient Ukrainian troops carved out of Kursk in August, has been the scene of fierce fighting for days. Videos circulating on social media depict Russian and North Korean troops marching into the village and coming under attack by Ukrainian infantry, tanks and drones.

Analyst Andrew Perpetua, who scrutinizes social media to tally Russian and Ukrainian losses, seemed to confirm the Russian casualties. “I feel like I just watched a whole Russian battalion die in a single video,” Perpetua noted on Monday. He claimed he visually confirmed 408 casualties in one day.

The four-mile stretch of the front line between Makhnovka in the north and Plekhove in the south isn’t the most intensive sector in Kursk. Clashes have been less frequent around Makhnovka than they’ve been around, say, Zelenyi Shylakh on the western side of the salient.

But it’s possible the individual fights in Makhnovka and Plekhove have been bloodier. Attacking in three waves across open fields outside the Plekhove on Dec. 14, more than 500 North Korean infantry eventually managed to eject the 100 Ukrainian troops holding the village.

But marching without much support across snowy fields, the North Koreans were easy targets for the retreating Ukrainians’ drones and artillery. North Korean losses—killed and wounded—may have accounted for more than half the attacking force, Ukrainian journalist Andriy Tsaplienko claimed.

Last weekend’s Russian attack on Makhnovka may have been even costlier—and less successful. Not only is Makhnovka still in the gray zone between Ukrainian and Russian control, there is some evidence that Ukrainian troops—possibly from the 61st Mechanized Brigade, 36th Separate Rifle Battalion or attached territorial brigades—actually advanced a short distance around the same time as many as 400 Russians lay dead or wounded on the same terrain.

The heavy casualties on the Russian and North Korean side is beginning to weigh on the two-month-old Russian-led counteroffensive in Kursk. “In Kursk Oblast, combat operations have intensified to the maximum level, forcing the Russian grouping there to expend all available resources,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported.

“This comes at an extremely inconvenient and disadvantageous time for them,” the group added. “If intensive fighting continues for another five to 10 days, the Russian grouping will need to be rapidly replenished, as it is already suffering significant losses in counter-battles. This replenishment can only be achieved by redeploying forces from other sections of the front.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


So.

OOC, WHERE ARE THOSE N KOREANS?

Everyone was making such a huge deal of those 1000, 3000 10,000 30,000 N Korean troops, dying by the dozens hundreds thousands in brutal, unsupported meat assaults in Kursk!

Unidentifiable because Russians have burned off their faces!

Such a threat they justified Americans launching ATACMS into Russia!

YIKES!



Has anyone seen a picture of them? Or of even one body, even with a face burned off?

No?




I shitcan "what Kiev says" unless I see evidence.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Thursday, January 9, 2025 8:58 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Russia May Have Lost 400 Troops In One Battle


... and Second and Ted took turns blowing each other while reading about it.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Friday, January 10, 2025 6:24 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


High-ranking Russian security officials appear to be assessing that Russia needs to intensify its war in Ukraine. Meduza's report suggests that Russian security and military officials may recognize that the Russian military is not accomplishing significant territorial gains proportionate to the manpower and materiel losses they are incurring in Ukraine. The Russian military command has, thus far, tolerated taking exorbitant personnel losses in exchange for tactically but not operationally significant advances, and Putin's theory of victory is predicated on accepting such losses so long as Russian forces continue to grind forward in Ukraine.[10] It remains unclear if this group of Russian security and military officials calling for further manpower and economic mobilization will succeed in convincing Putin to take more dramatic measures to meet the Russian military's needs in Ukraine.

Russian elites' reported diagnosis of the main problem with Russia's conduct of the war is inaccurate, as Russia's failure to restore maneuver to the battlefield — not a shortage of manpower — is the main factor causing Russia's relatively slow rate of advance. Russian elites' reported focus on mobilizing more Russian personnel indicates that the Russian elites likely view a lack of manpower as Russia's largest constraint to achieving rapid success on the battlefield rather than the ineffectiveness of frontline Russian forces, poor campaign-planning abilities of Russian commanders, and significant armored vehicle shortages that Russian forces are currently suffering.[13]

Russian forces have recently demonstrated that they are able to make slow, grinding gains through infantry assaults in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, but their inability to conduct rapid, mechanized maneuver has prevented Russian forces from converting these tactical gains into deep penetrations into Ukrainian rear areas.[14]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-9-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, January 10, 2025 7:28 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


They forgot to cite the original source.

The quote should be "KIEV SAYS The Russian military command has, thus far, tolerated taking exorbitant personnel losses".

*shitcan*

Yep. Can join those "30,000 N Korean soldiers", "Ghost of Kiev", and Zelensky's latest whopper: "Kursk is one if the greatest victories ... throughout the entire war".
https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/zelenskyy-calls-kursk-operation-one-
of-ukraine-s-greatest-victories-50480395.html


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Friday, January 10, 2025 11:40 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

*shitcan*


If Russia were what it imagined itself to be, the powerful nation that conquered Fascists and Nazis without help from the US, UK, and Commonwealth of Nations, the Ukrainian war would have been over years ago since Ukraine is militarily insignificant. And yet the battle continues on and on and on. Maybe Russia should imagine itself as North Korea, forever in conflict with South Korea, or in Russia's case, Ukraine.

Donald Trump pushes back Ukraine war deadline in sign of support for Kyiv

US president-elect speaks of six months to end conflict, after pledging to solve it in ‘24 hours’ from taking office

By Henry Foy in Brussels, Max Seddon in Berlin and Amy Kazmin in Rome | Jan 9, 2024

https://www.ft.com/content/989dc02e-2a13-4c21-8ad0-0b32e098c410

US president-elect Donald Trump has pushed back his campaign pledge to end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours” to several months, in a shift European partners have interpreted as a sign that his administration will not immediately abandon support for Kyiv.

Two European officials told the Financial Times that discussions with Trump’s incoming team in recent weeks revealed they had not yet decided on how to solve the conflict, and that support to Ukraine would continue after the US president’s inauguration on January 20.

“The whole [Trump] team is obsessed with strength and looking strong, so they’re recalibrating the Ukraine approach,” said one of the officials.

The incoming administration was also wary of comparisons being made with Joe Biden’s calamitous US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was something the Trump camp would not like to see repeated in Ukraine, the official added.

Trump earlier this week suggested that “six months” was a more realistic target to end the war. His appointee as special envoy for the war in Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, told Fox News on Wednesday that the aim was to stop the conflict in “100 days”.

“I would like to set a goal on a personal and professional level — I would set it at 100 days and move all the way back,” Kellogg told Fox News when asked about a Ukraine peace deal. “And figure a way we can do this in the near term, to make sure the solution is solid and it’s sustainable and that this war ends so that we stop the carnage.”

European leaders and officials have been making the case to Trump and his team that continued US military aid is needed to put Kyiv in a stronger position for peace talks and help bring Moscow to the negotiating table, nearly three years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

French officials said last month that strengthening Ukraine’s position on the battlefield meant stopping Russia’s advances in the east of the country because there would be no talks if Moscow was still taking territory.

Washington’s continued military support is crucial for Ukraine’s defence, even as European nations have also contributed with armament and a significant financial lifeline to Kyiv.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who met Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort last week, has ruled out that Washington would “abandon” Ukraine.

“I don’t foresee a US disengagement,” she said in a news conference on Thursday, adding that Trump had proven capable of blending diplomacy with deterrence. “On peace, Trump may be someone who is moving forward towards a solution, but I don’t think that means abandoning Ukraine.”

Meloni said that Ukraine would have to receive concrete security guarantees as part of any potential diplomatic deal to end the active conflict.

“Security guarantees are fundamental if we actually aspire to have peace in Ukraine,” she said. “We all know that in the past Russia has violated the agreements that it has signed. Without security guarantees, we cannot have certainty that will not happen again.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sought to persuade Washington and other Nato allies to anchor those security guarantees in a concrete timeline for his country to join the US-led defence alliance. But both Biden and Trump have signalled reluctance in endorsing such a step, and so have some European leaders including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

French President Emmanuel Macron meanwhile has suggested that European troops could be deployed to Ukraine to ensure that Russia does not attack again — an idea that also lacks unanimous support in Europe.

Russian President Vladimir Putin would “welcome” any approach from Trump and was prepared for “dialogue” with the US, the Kremlin said on Thursday.

Putin’s main goal in any talks was to create new security agreements that would ensure Ukraine never joins Nato and that the US-led military alliance pulls back from some of its eastern deployments, according to a former senior Kremlin official and another person who has discussed this with the Russian president.

“He wants to change the rules of the international order so there are no threats to Russia. He is very worried about how the world will look after the war,” the former senior Kremlin official said. “Trump wants to roll back Nato anyway. The world is changing, anything can happen.”

Western officials including Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte have sought to stress the importance of Trump ensuring “peace through strength” in Ukraine, and avoiding a defeat for Kyiv that would embolden Putin and his allies in China, Iran and North Korea.

“We cannot have a situation where we have [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un and the Russian leader and [Chinese President] Xi Jinping and Iran high-fiving because we came to a deal which is not good for Ukraine, because long-term that will be a dire security threat not only to Europe but also to the US,” Rutte told the FT last month.

Additional reporting by Ben Hall in London

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, January 10, 2025 3:19 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


220,000 Russian Soldiers Killed in Ukraine: Report

Published Jan 10, 2025 at 10:24 AM EST

https://www.newsweek.com/220000-russian-soldiers-killed-ukraine-report
-2013022

Up to 220,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine since 2022, according to analysis by the BBC Russian Service, independent Russian outlet Mediazona and a team of volunteers. They have obtained the names of at least 88,000 of the soldiers, according to the outlet Important Stories.

Ukraine estimates Moscow's forces have suffered more than 800,000 casualties, including both dead and wounded.

Why It Matters

The discrepancy of estimates regarding the number of Russian soldiers killed on the battlefield is significant because it makes it more difficult to analyze how the war in Ukraine is affecting Moscow, and if it will be able to continue sustaining it. Despite the two outlets' number of identified Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine being lower than Kyiv's estimates, Moscow is likely feeling the effects of a manpower shortage.

In a 2023 report for the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Benjamin J. Radford of the University of North Carolina and others wrote:

"Determining the number of casualties and fatalities suffered in militarized conflicts is important for conflict measurement, forecasting, and accountability. However, given the nature of conflict, reliable statistics on casualties are rare. Countries or political actors involved in conflicts have incentives to hide or manipulate these numbers, while third parties might not have access to reliable information. For example, in the ongoing militarized conflict between Russia and Ukraine, estimates of the magnitude of losses vary wildly, sometimes across orders of magnitude.

"Our daily and cumulative estimates provide evidence that Russia has lost more personnel than has Ukraine and also likely suffers from a higher fatality to casualty ratio. We find that both sides likely overestimate the personnel losses suffered by their opponent and that Russian sources underestimate their own losses of personnel."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, January 10, 2025 4:13 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
If Russia were what it imagined itself to be, the powerful nation that conquered Fascists and Nazis without help from the US, UK, and Commonwealth of Nations, the Ukrainian war would have been over years ago since Ukraine is militarily insignificant

But with weapons, money, intel, training, and mercs/techs/specops from the West.
Trying to reframe this as a "big bad Russia v tiny Ukraine" conflict?
Epic fail.


Quote:
They have obtained the names of [at least?] 88,000 of the soldiers, according to the outlet Important Stories.

So, yanno... let's inflate that by a factor of almost three.


*****

I watch Military Summary channel bc, altho Dima is very pro-Ukrainian, he scans pro- Ukrainian, neutral, and pro- Russian reports, both unofficial and official. Butbhe lets geolocated videos be the deciding factor. You can forget his "analysis": nearly everything he predicts (troop movements, offensives, political changes) doesn't come true. But he is hyperfocused on frontline activity.

And BTW, despite the fact that he kept repeating the "N Korean" talking point for at least two weeks, there was not a single indentifiable picture or video of a N Korean soldier anywhere. Even he finally started applying skepticism to the story.

Also, just looking at the relative firepower of the two sides (drones v Fab2000s), and the # of cauldrons Russia has created around Ukrainian positions, it's hard to imagine Russia taking more losses than Ukraine.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Saturday, January 11, 2025 6:21 AM

THG


tick tock...

T

MASSIVE EXPLOSIONS ROCK RUSSIA, MAJOR DAMAGE NATIONWIDE!






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Saturday, January 11, 2025 6:39 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
If Russia were what it imagined itself to be, the powerful nation that conquered Fascists and Nazis without help from the US, UK, and Commonwealth of Nations, the Ukrainian war would have been over years ago since Ukraine is militarily insignificant

But with weapons, money, intel, training, and mercs/techs/specops from the West.
Trying to reframe this as a "big bad Russia v tiny Ukraine" conflict?
Epic fail.
You and Putin framed it as a proxy war. Will the EU and US cut off ammo to the proxy and force it to lose? By the way, the Russians died by the tens of millions during the Great Patriotic War (only 7 million Germans died) because Russians were bad at the military sciences. Russians haven't gotten any more competent at making war in 80 years since WWII, except for the nukes added by Russian physicists, nukes which Russians never fail to mention at every opportunity that they will nuke the West.

Putin laid a 'trap' for Trump

By Daniel Hampton | January 10, 2025 7:17PM ET

https://www.rawstory.com/vladimir-putin-2670795087/

Russian President Vladimir Putin, a former intelligence officer, has laid a "trap" for President-elect Donald Trump, a Washington Post columnist warned Friday — and Trump must do all he can to "avoid being outplayed."

Josh Rogin, a columnist for the paper's Global Opinions section, wrote that Putin cynically plans to "use negotiations to buy more time for his aggression," knowing that Trump has vowed to swiftly end the war.

"Trump must avoid this trap," said Rogan.

But Trump's ambition for a quick end to the conflict plays directly into Russia's hands, he said.

"For Putin, who said Thursday he is ready to meet Trump soon, the deadline is an invitation to stall and extract concessions, knowing Trump might value speed over substance. By engaging in talks while escalating military pressure, Putin can string the United States along without making meaningful compromises," said Rogin.

He added: "If Trump hopes to avoid being outplayed, he will need to recognize what every recent president has learned: Putin’s goal is not peace but dominance. He responds only to pressure."

Putin has said he will only agree to peace if Ukraine surrenders four regions under Russian occupation, and promise to remain neutral.

For his part, Rogin said Trump has certain skills that could benefit him in such a high-stakes negotiation: namely his "instincts as a businessman."

"He understands leverage, and most of his aides understand that he must negotiate from a position of strength," said Rogin.

Even so, Trump's team has said they want to reach a deal within 100 days — a quick timeline that works against him.

"The only way to compel Putin to make concessions is to increase the cost of his aggression. This means ramping up military aid to Ukraine, imposing harsher sanctions on Russia and bolstering NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe," said Rogin. "Trump, who says he wants a deal, might have to take the long road to get there: recognize Putin’s game, increase support for Ukraine and use U.S. leverage wisely."

He concluded: That will take much longer than 100 days. But if Trump can adapt quickly, he might avoid the trap Putin has in store for him."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, January 12, 2025 7:30 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Do Russians Really Support the War in Ukraine?

A group of sociologists found that few Russians were steadfast supporters of the war. Most had something more complicated to say.

By Keith Gessen | January 10, 2025

https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/do-russians-really-
support-the-war-in-ukraine

In the summer and fall of 2023, three researchers from a small Russian collective called the Public Sociology Laboratory, or P.S. Lab, travelled to three different regions across Russia, to find out what people thought about the war in Ukraine. A university lecturer whom I’ll call Masha went to Sverdlovsk Oblast, at the eastern edge of the Ural Mountains; a recent college graduate who goes by Aida went to Buryatia, on the border with Mongolia; and an anthropologist who goes by Marina went to Krasnodar, a southern resort region connected to Crimea by the Kerch Strait Bridge. The researchers stayed in these regions for about a month, talking to as many people as possible. They could not simply announce that they were from a sociology collective studying the war, so they were undercover, and they knew that there wasn’t much that P.S. Lab could do for them if they got in trouble.

The researchers had been galvanized by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in February, 2022. Marina had met the group’s founders before the war, at academic conferences. Aida had studied under several of them when she was in college, in western Siberia. For Masha, a friend of one of the P.S. Lab founders, the work represented a return to political engagement, after years of inaction. In college, in Moscow in the early twenty-tens, she had attended protests against Vladimir Putin’s regime with her friends and kept up with the opposition media. Then, in 2014, Russia invaded Crimea and annexed it after a snap referendum. “It was a shock,” Masha told me. “Like, you can just do that? It erased all our efforts.” She applied for a doctorate in anthropology and spent the next five years researching religion, mysticism, gender—“basically anything, as long as it had no connection to politics.”

That changed after February, 2022. Masha wanted to do something. She wrote to her friend from P.S. Lab, Svetlana Erpyleva, who sent her transcripts of roughly thirty interviews about the war which P.S. Lab had collected in the immediate aftermath of the invasion. Masha’s assignment was to read and analyze the interviews, and she went into it with some trepidation. “You see these reports in the media,” she said. “People marching, lining up in the form of the letter ‘Z’ ”—a symbol of support for Putin and the war—“some nice old ladies making a portrait of Putin out of tin cans. You get this sense that people are crazy about the war and about Putin, that they’re zombified. That they have no morals, no empathy, no souls.”

The interviews told a different story. People were shocked by the war, incredulous, and grieving. “I heard somewhere that it was going to happen on February 16th,” one woman, a forty-year-old project manager, told her interviewer. “But everyone thought it was a joke, that it wouldn’t really happen, that it was American propaganda.” “It’s just surreal,” another woman, a thirty-year-old marketing analyst, said. “It shouldn’t be this way. The international community needs to find a compromise solution as soon as possible.” Masha was relieved. These were the Russians that she knew: deeply concerned with morality and ethics, but, at the same time, estranged from politics. She wrote a chapter for a report, “The War Near and Far,” which came out online in the fall of 2022, and then helped P.S. Lab do a second wave of interviews, shortly afterward, in the wake of the partial mobilization of military reservists.

By then, Masha and her husband had left Russia, worried that he’d be drafted but also worried more generally about the future. They wanted to start a family and felt it was impossible to do so under Putin. “It’s a situation where you can’t plan your life—where some guy in the Kremlin can decide one day to do this thing and turn your life upside down,” Masha said. She kept going back to Russia to do research. A few months after she finished work on P.S. Lab’s second report, “Resigning Themselves to Inevitability,” she travelled to a small town in the Sverdlovsk region for a different project, and while there she started thinking. There was a vast number of people who would never agree to sit down and discuss their true feelings in the form of a sociological interview. But might it not be possible to go out into the provinces and, rather than pose questions, just listen to people talk about the war?

A few months later, she was back in the same town, now as a P.S. Lab researcher. Just listening to people talk about the war turned out to be more challenging than she’d expected. The town of Cheryomushkin, as P.S. Lab pseudonymized it, had very few public spaces. People tended to mind their own business. One day, Masha noticed that the local movie theatre was premièring “Witness,” a new, big-budget propaganda film about the war. She stationed herself outside the theatre, waiting for possible pro-war interlocutors, but no one came. Other nominally pro-war events that Masha tried to attend were either cancelled, poorly attended, or, like one music concert that claimed to be dedicated to the war effort, not about the war in any meaningful sense. “If, as a thought experiment, we were to imagine a person who fell asleep on the night of February 23, 2022, and then suddenly woke up in Cheryomushkin in the fall of 2023,” she and her co-authors eventually wrote, in what became their third report, “it would be difficult for them to guess that a full-scale war had been going on for the last year and a half.”

Masha had better luck when she set up shop in a popular local café. She found herself sitting next to two middle-aged men who were drinking with some former classmates. After the classmates left, the men turned their attention to Masha. One of them tried to pick her up. Her first reaction was to tell him off, but then she caught herself: at least the men were willing to chat. She engaged them in a long conversation about life in the town, the state of the country, and the war. One of the men turned out to have previously worked for the F.S.B., and was a committed ideological supporter of Putin. “Victory,” he told Masha, “is when we take all of Ukraine back, and Poland, Romania, Czechoslovakia—when we get everything back.” This was Masha’s first real discussion of the war with a randomly chosen resident, and it turned out to be atypical. Most other people in town had a much more complicated, and conflicted, view of what their country was doing in Ukraine.

Since the beginning of the war, there have been fierce debates among Russian scholars, and Russians themselves, over the nature and extent of support for it. One point of contention has been the polling data. The largest and oldest independent pollster operating in the country, the Levada Center, has, since February 27, 2022, been asking Russians once a month whether they “personally support the actions of Russian military forces in Ukraine.” Each time, a very large proportion of respondents—between seventy and eighty per cent—say they either “definitely” or mostly support them.

Critics of Levada argue that the very framing of the question, clearly intended to avoid government censorship that does not allow people to call the conflict a “war,” is a major problem. Another is the nature of attempting to poll people in an authoritarian state. “If you’re in Russia, and some stranger comes to your door asking questions, you’ve obviously got a mental illness if you’re telling them anything,” the British ethnographer Jeremy Morris, who has studied Russia for two decades, told me. But more than that, he said, even well-conducted polls were too crude for a situation as complicated as this one. “Polling data is fine for ‘Are you going to vote the Democrats or are you going to vote the Republicans?’ It’s about a onetime decision that is close to the present. ‘Do you prefer Pepsi or Coke?’ But, when it comes to horribly complex, painful things like a war, it’s not useful.” Nonetheless, Morris acknowledged the power of numbers: Levada’s seventy-plus-per-cent pro-war figure has framed a lot of perceptions, including inside Russia.

P.S. Lab’s hope from the start of the war was to push back on those numbers. The group had been founded, in 2011, by Erpyleva, Oleg Zhuravlev, and Natalia Savelyeva, graduate students at the time, who wanted to practice an in-depth and theoretically sophisticated sociology in the tradition of Pierre Bourdieu, who had subjected the French class system to withering scrutiny. They also took inspiration from Bourdieu’s students Luc Boltanski and Laurent Thévenot, who together wrote a book called “On Justification,” examining how people explained their lives and ideas to others and to themselves. P.S. Lab expanded over time to include several more sociologists, a political scientist, and a cognitive psychologist who studied propaganda; the work was mostly on a voluntary basis, though occasionally P.S. Lab received small, project-based grants. In its first decade, the group conducted large-scale studies of people’s attitudes toward politics, labor movements, and, after 2014, the ongoing war in the Ukrainian east. The researchers wanted to know whether the protest movement that arose in 2011 and 2012 could credibly challenge the Putin regime, and whether Russians actually believed all the propaganda they were exposed to. (The answer was yes, but not very deeply.)

Zhuravlev said that, when he and his colleagues saw the result of the first Levada poll after the 2022 invasion, they simply couldn’t believe it. P.S. Lab had spent a decade studying the ways in which the regime had depoliticized the population; it was inconceivable that the Kremlin could mobilize people overnight in favor of an aggressive war of choice. A more careful survey might find that support for the war was less than it seemed. “Or we could see what lay beneath the support,” Zhuravlev said. They put out a call for volunteer interviewers and started speaking to people, many of whom they found through friends’ and family members’ networks, sometimes for hours at a time. “There was no opportunity for people to talk about the war,” Zhuravlev said. “So they talked with us.”

In the first set of post-invasion interviews, the P.S. Lab researchers confirmed their suspicion that, instead of demonstrating broad war support, as per Levada, Russians fell into three distinct groups: a small, core group of committed war supporters (around ten to fifteen per cent of the respondents); a similarly small group of committed war opponents; and a third, much larger group that was undecided or fell in between the two extremes. People who were undecided about the war repeatedly stated in interviews that they felt themselves to be separate from the leadership in the Kremlin. Putin’s decision-making process was opaque to them. Maybe he had his reasons? “People stressed their total alienation from the politicians in the Kremlin as a way of expressing their support for them,” Zhuravlev said. The final report, which came to three hundred pages, was written in an accessible style but with a great deal of both qualitative and quantitative detail. It was published in September, 2022—“Too fast for academia, but too slow for journalism,” as Erpyleva put it—and concluded that committed war supporters and opponents actually had a lot in common. They were politicized, rigid in their views, and intolerant of other opinions. The large group in the middle was more open to conversation, but they were becoming less inclined to discuss the war. In fact, this was true of all three groups: they increasingly wanted to avoid discussing the subject altogether. For P.S. Lab, the first round of interviews confirmed their initial impulse. “We realized that most people didn’t have a settled opinion of the war, and so our method was correct,” Zhuravlev said. “Polls can only measure opinions. If people don’t have settled opinions, you need to talk with them.”

P.S. Lab’s second report, based on interviews in the months after the partial mobilization, showed that the war-supporting and opposing groups had remained mostly stable (though some opponents had left the country), but the middle group was beginning to rationalize Russia’s actions. To Erpyleva, this was a matter of mental habit. “People who were politically active before February 24th were able to turn their negative emotions into a political position,” she said. They became war opponents. But those who hadn’t participated in politics before were unable to start now. “When the government tells you that the war is justified by reasons No. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and that, if you don’t support it, you’re a traitor, then in order to say ‘I’m against it’ you must have the inner means to form a political position. Because your position is now radical.” And so, she went on, many people whose first response to the war was shock and even outrage began to justify it.

One man, aged sixty, recalled the day of the invasion: “One of my old friends and classmates called me from Crimea. She said that troops had been marching through the city for hours. And that her son was on the front lines near Belgorod. I was in shock. I probably didn’t speak for three days.”

“And then?” the interviewer asked. Then, the man replied, he started speaking again. His silence had been “irrational,” he said, and, after three days, he started “thinking rationally.” The content of his thinking, in the presentation of P.S. Lab, mostly was a repetition of the propaganda on TV. He had decided to justify the war; after that, it was just a matter of finding the words.

For years, Zhuravlev said, sociologists had spoken of Russia as an atomized society—one where social bonds are thin, where people look out only for themselves and their families. In conditions of warfare, when fear is dominant, atomized people seek social cohesion. “If you have three friends,” Zhuravlev said, “and two of them support the war, and the one who opposes it moves to Georgia, you’re going to find a way to come around.”

In P.S. Lab’s third round of research, Marina, in Krasnodar, had, in some ways, the easiest assignment: Krasnodar is a resort region, on the Black Sea coast, where people tend to spend time outside, at leisure. In October of 2023, when Marina arrived, it was warm and sunny. She would walk down the main boulevard in the mornings; if she saw someone on a bench, on their own, she would strike up a conversation. She’d ask about COVID, about local politics, and then about the war.

For the most part, Marina found, people did not want to talk about the war. When Marina asked whether they sensed its proximity—the Kerch Strait Bridge to Crimea, which had been badly damaged by a truck bomb the year before, was a three-hour drive away—they responded with incredulity. Maybe it was near Belgorod, they said; maybe it was near Rostov. But how could she say it was near here? Still, there were constant reminders. The airport was closed, groceries had become more expensive, and refugees were arriving from the war zone. One woman’s kids were being taught about the war in kindergarten. Were they too young for that, the woman wondered? But this was happening all over Russia, she said, so it was probably O.K.

Most of Marina’s conversations were friendly, but there were a few unpleasant incidents. At one point, Marina, walking by a day spa, was handed a flyer advertising a free massage. Marina felt that she could use a free massage. She went in and was immediately seen by a middle-aged massage therapist, who started working on her neck and shoulders. Marina engaged her in the usual conversation. The massage therapist, a war supporter, was happy to talk. She gave an interesting description of her media consumption. “On the Internet,” she explained, there are so many fakes: “You have to figure out that this is a fake, this is not a fake.” Whereas with the news on TV, “you watch it for the day and you’re done. No problem.” As for the war, it was hard for the massage therapist to say who started it and why.

“But we started it,” Marina said.

“Who’s we?” said the massage therapist.

“Well, I mean, Putin started it,” Marina said.

The invocation of Putin seemed to set the massage therapist off. She lost her temper and threatened Marina, saying that she would “call someone” who would come to straighten out Marina on the subject of Putin and the war. “They’ll tear you to pieces over Putin!” she said. Marina, frightened, fled the spa, almost leaving behind her shirt, and spent the next hour looking over her shoulder to see whether the woman had, in fact, called someone.

“A few years ago, if someone had said they were going to call someone because I’d criticized Putin, it would have been very odd,” Marina told me. “I’d have laughed. Whereas, this time, it really scared me.” Marina, who is still in Russia as of this writing, has developed a very keen sense of what is allowed and what can get you in trouble. Being detained at a protest is no big deal, unless it happens three times in one year—then you could be imprisoned. Marina is a soft-spoken academic, but she has been detained twice at anti-government protests: once in 2022, for a night, and another time last year, when she spent ten days in jail. “They can’t get me for ‘fakes,’ ” she said, referring to the law against “fake information” which has frequently been used to jail war opponents, “because I’m very careful about what I post on social media. But ‘promoting terrorism’—that one is very elastic.”

Aida, in the Buryat capital of Ulan-Ude, had a more difficult assignment. Buryatia is on the border with Mongolia; it is about one-third ethnically Buryat, and has occasionally sought its independence from Moscow. As a result, its people have been imprisoned, exiled, and murdered. Before travelling to the region, Aida had been warned that the F.S.B. kept a close eye on visitors there. Her first interviews were all with opponents of the war, people she could trust. They seemed demoralized and frightened. One man spent much of their interview, in a café, worrying about another man sitting nearby, who he thought was listening in. He then told Aida that she was crazy to have come to Buryatia. “It was like I’d gone to the Mariana Trench,” she told me, “this dangerous place from which no one returned.”

Buryatia is very poor, and it had sent more people to their deaths in Ukraine, per capita, than all but one other region (Tuva, right next door). At the time Aida did her fieldwork, in late 2023, a man from Buryatia was roughly thirty-five times more likely to go and die in Ukraine than one from Moscow. And yet, even here, people didn’t want to talk about the war. “On the surface,” Aida told me, “everyone is pretending that it’s not happening. But, if you dig a little deeper, you see that Buryatia is a place where there probably isn’t a single person who doesn’t know someone who’s been sent to the front.” People were now in a different stage of grief. “This sorrow, these losses, have become almost routine,” she said.

Aida decided to volunteer at a center in Ulan-Ude where women made and gathered supplies for the war effort. She spent several days there, sewing camouflage nets and talking with the volunteers. Most of them had sons or husbands at the front. At one point, a more experienced volunteer explained to Aida that she was using too much white in her net. “Try to make it more neutral, so that a sniper won’t stand out from his surroundings,” she said, then added, “See! Your work is very important. Depending on how the net is colored, a person’s life will be saved, or not.”

Aida was stunned by the remark. Here, at last, was the civil society for which so many Russians had long hoped. But it came in the form of sewing nets for snipers so they could more effectively murder Ukrainians. On another day, one of the women remarked, with curiosity, “You know, there are probably women in Ukraine right now doing the same thing as we are.” This was true. But a nearby volunteer disagreed. “No,” she said, “they don’t have to. The Americans give them everything.” Aida told me, “I just stood there for two minutes, frozen.” She felt that if she reacted, it would give her away. “It was this constant dissonance,” she said, “between, on the one hand, these regular people, who look like your grandmother, your friends—and then suddenly, without any context, they can say something like that. Sometimes even without any emotion, just repeating an ideological cliché.” But still they had said it.

Masha’s assignment was neither near the front lines nor in an ethnically distinctive region that had seen much bloodshed. The small town of Cheryomushkin was a typical Russian town: poor, politically demobilized, a little depressed. One of the few interesting things about it, with regard to the war, was that there was a prison colony nearby, from which the Wagner Group had recruited men.

Masha had the advantage of already knowing someone in Cheryomushkin: a local business owner and war opponent whom she called Tonya. Tonya was eager to help Masha do her work. Tonya was the one who suggested, for example, that Masha go to the café where she went on to meet the war supporter from the F.S.B.

More often, Masha found herself talking over beers with Tonya’s friends and colleagues. In those conversations, the war came up occasionally as a subject of gossip. Friends discussed a woman who’d struck up a correspondence with a local prisoner, married him, then watched as he went off to war with Wagner and was killed. The woman received his entire death bonus, around a hundred thousand dollars, no strings attached. This was considered a pretty funny story, and not really objectionable. Another woman, deemed much less admirable, had bought a new car with the money her husband was sending home from the front, and was recently seen around town, in said car, with another man. Somewhere between these two cases was a woman whose husband, a schoolteacher, had died at the front. She, too, had bought a new car with the money sent by the government after his death, and a month later was seen dancing “joyfully” at a night club, according to several witnesses. Some residents found this reprehensible. Others felt that it was O.K. for her to go on with her life.

One night, Masha went to a small party that included Tonya and two of her colleagues, Alyona and Lyuda. As the women drank, they chatted about work, their friends, the town. Tonya, knowing that Masha wanted to talk about the war, kept trying to turn the conversation in that direction, but the other women didn’t take the bait. “Let’s not talk about politics,” Lyuda kept saying.

Finally, Tonya mentioned that one of their friends had lost a relative at the front. “Boris’s cousin died,” she said.

Alyona: In what sense?

Tonya: In the war.

Alyona: Really?

Tonya: Yes. It’s very sad.

Tonya ventured that it was terrible that these young men were dying. It was the older men who started the war. Shouldn’t they be the ones fighting and dying, instead of sending young men?

Lyuda [suddenly emotional]: Children!

Tonya: They have their whole lives ahead of them.

Lyuda: Children are sent to fight. For what?! Why are they dying? [To Tonya] Explain to me why they are dying?

Tonya: I don’t know why, Lyu—

Lyuda [interrupts, loudly]: These motherfuckers are fucking dividing the spoils! And our boys are just fucking dying.

Tonya: I’m telling you the same thing. I don’t understand it either. In general, I think—

Lyuda [interrupts, loudly]: I cannot understand—what do they want from all this?

Having been the one in the room most reluctant to talk about politics, Lyuda now couldn’t stop. It turned out that she had a draft-aged son. She desperately wanted to prevent him from going to the front. But, when asked if the war should end and whether Russia should withdraw its troops, she suddenly changed her perspective. She said that she’d been watching all the media channels and knew for certain that the United States, not Russia, was the one killing civilians in Ukraine.

Masha said that the conversation was one of the most intense that she had experienced, though also very typical. “This was something I saw constantly,” Masha said, “this switch from criticism to justification.”

To her, people’s contradictory reactions were an outcome of their disengagement. In order to oppose the war, she said, you have to believe that you have some say in it—that you could vote out of power the people who started it or at least express your dissatisfaction by voting for someone else. “But people in Russia do not believe in democracy—not because they want to live in a dictatorship but because they simply don’t believe that democracy exists,” Masha said. “They laugh when I tell them that Ukrainians elected Zelensky. They laugh. They don’t believe that anyone, anywhere, can choose their leaders. They think it’s a fairy tale.”

According to Masha, people’s inability to imagine a way to replace their leaders makes these leaders seem more permanent. Therefore, all of Russia—that is, the people themselves—was being accused of killing innocent civilians. And it was very important for them to prove that they were not responsible for those crimes.

This summer, P.S. Lab published its third report, “We Need to Carry On,” as a PDF on the group’s Web site. (The English translation was released last month.) https://therussiaprogram.org/ps_lab_ethnography

It included chapters by Masha, Marina, and Aida on their findings, and several essays by other authors, on topics such as propaganda narratives and how they work. As with the previous reports, excerpts appeared in independent Russian publications, mostly working in exile: Meduza, Holod, and Re: Russia.

Kirill Rogov, a political scientist now based in Vienna and the editor of Re: Russia, said that he found P.S. Lab’s reports electrifying. “We always think that public opinion surveys are supposed to say how many Russians are for the war and how many are against it,” he said. “Sixty-five per cent are for it, thirty per cent are against it. Or seventy per cent are for it, twenty-five per cent are against it. But here we see that, inside most people, there is that same division. They’re sixty per cent for the war, and thirty per cent against. Someone else is fifty per cent for the war and fifty per cent against. And we see in these portraits how people wobble inside themselves.” P.S. Lab’s work, he added, was a powerful addition to mass polling about the war. “It’s really clarified our view of the public opinion polls, and what people could and could not express in them.”

Rogov compared P.S. Lab to the Prague Linguistic Circle, founded by Roman Jakobson and Nikolai Trubetskoy, among others, in the nineteen-twenties, after they left Bolshevik Russia—a small, self-contained research unit of extremely devoted people whose work on the structure of speech changed the way we view language and the self.

The Russian government has also noticed P.S. Lab. Earlier this year, the collective was designated a “foreign agent.” During the summer, not long after the group’s third report was published, the Russian communications authority asked Tilda, the Web platform that hosted P.S. Lab’s Web site, to take it down. Tilda complied. P.S. Lab spent several weeks migrating their content to a different host.

For Marina, two years of doing interviews has diminished her opinion of the Russian people. During the first wave of research, in the spring of 2022, she’d started reaching out to old friends from her home town. She was shocked to learn how many of them supported the war. “These people used to be hippies,” she said. “They were boys with long hair. They listened to Western music. Now they tell me that the West wants to impose nontraditional values on us. I think, My god, what’s happened to you?”

For Aida, the experience of Buryatia was powerful in another way. Her parents are war supporters. The past three years have tested her bond with them, though when we spoke recently, over Zoom, she was home for a visit. Spending time with the friendly women sewing camouflage netting for Russian snipers made her think more deeply, she said, about the nature of evil. “I very often see people whose views are horrible, whose views make me want to throw up, and I don’t understand how a person can talk that way or think that way. But they turn out to be absolutely ordinary people,” she said. What to do with this observation is something she’s still pondering.

Masha told me that travelling to central Russia and talking with people there “rehabilitated” her sense of them. Early in the war, she had been appalled by what seemed like people’s willingness to accept it. She was even ready to believe that Russians were, as she put it, “uniquely horrible.” “But I knew, as a researcher, that a hundred and forty million people who all happen to live in the same space can’t be uniquely anything,” she said. She found herself moved and baffled by and, ultimately, deeply connected to the people she met in Cheryomushkin, in all their confusion and terror and anger.

And they were not, she thought, incapable of change. When confronted with Russian war crimes, they recoiled and became defensive. But when Masha spoke to them about how they were also victims of the war—not at the hands of Ukraine but of their own government, which was sending their sons and husbands to die, and expending treasure that could have been used for schools and roads and hospitals—people responded. “It makes people in a number of situations start doubting the war,” Erpyleva, Masha’s old friend at P.S. Lab, said. “These conversations often end with them saying, ‘Who needs this? What’s it for?’ ” What people like Lyuda from Cheryomushkin are so far unable to do is take the next step: to actively put themselves in opposition, to speak out. It would require a change in mind-set—a change that their government has done everything in its power to prevent.

Most of the sociologists of P.S. Lab are now out of the country, but they remain hopeful. They are finishing a report based on conversations with wives of soldiers who are at the front. The war will not last forever, and afterward it will be necessary to live with and talk to people who did not oppose it.

As for Masha, though abroad, she continues to think and dream of Russia all the time. She very much hopes to return.“After doing all these interviews, my feelings for my homeland have deepened,” Masha said. “Not in the sense of it’s a wonderful country, and I’ve started thinking better of it. But in the sense that it’s mine.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, January 12, 2025 10:50 PM

THG


T

RUSSIAN ARMY TRAPPED IN SYRIA, ISRAEL CONDUCTS MAJOR AIRSTRIKES!






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Monday, January 13, 2025 7:00 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


“We Need To Carry On”: Ethnography Of Russian Regions During Wartime

December 17, 2024

https://therussiaprogram.org/ps_lab_ethnography

In the fall of 2023, with the goal of understanding what is really happening with Russian society during wartime, the Public Sociology Laboratory team went on ethnographic research trips to three Russian regions—Sverdlovsk, Krasnodar and Buryatia. . . . The following summary highlights the main analytical conclusions.

1. Russian society remains politically demobilized. We see that the war has become routine and therefore a disregarded part of reality. For example, compared to the first years of the war, the amount of pro-war symbolism in public spaces has decreased in all three regions. The war has neither become a source of new ideas in the cultural life of cities or villages nor been integrated into familiar and already-established cultural formats. The war is not discussed in public places, including, with rare exceptions, local online communities.

2. In spontaneous conversations, Russians rarely discuss the overall goals, causes or justifications of the war. They are concerned with the impact of the war on their everyday lives. When they talk about the war, they mostly talk about the same things they discussed before the war, for example, everyday difficulties, money, or ethics. Men more often discuss topics that are considered "masculine" in society, such as the technical side of the war, and women usually talk about "feminine" topics, such as how war destroys families.

3. Participation in various types of pro-war volunteering and organized assistance for the military, which are often cited as an example of the mobilization and militarization of Russian society, is rarely motivated by people's firm support for the "special operation." It is usually associated with pressure from the administration, community moral norms (concerning mutual assistance), and/or a desire to help loved ones, rather than a wish to make victory for Russia more likely. Observation of volunteers' activities show that while working, they do not discuss the war or politics, rather choosing topics that are personable and relatable to them: prices, pensions, families, and/or stories related to the volunteer centers.

4. Despite all these similarities, the war is perceived slightly differently in different regions. The peculiarities of each region's view owe to factors like the number of military units and penal colonies from which prisoners are recruited, proximity to the combat zone, the prosperity of the region and the availability of decent jobs, the density of social ties, the circulation of news transmitted by friends on the front lines, etc. In other words, the differences in perceptions of the war are attributable mainly to the peculiarities of life in the regions before the invasion of Ukraine.

5. The conflict between opponents and supporters of the war is gradually subsiding, while the rift between those who stayed in Russia and those who left is growing. This is happening both because the shared experience of living through a difficult situation within the country is becoming more important for many Russians than any differences in viewpoint, and also because people are discussing the war less.

6. At the same time, the waning conflict between opponents and supporters of the war does not always mean more social cohesion. Since people are trying to live as if the war is nonexistent and the government does not talk about any losses or problems associated with the war, all negative consequences of the war are either normalized or pushed into the realm of "personal problems" that are not discussed with anyone and that everyone must deal with on their own.

7. Overall, many people do not feel able to influence political decisions. Therefore, they are increasingly distancing themselves from the war. They understand that they cannot change government policy, but they retain at least some control over their private lives—and therefore they are immersed in them. Over time, not only apolitical Russians but even sure opponents of the invasion experience this powerlessness and, as a result, some of them accept the new reality while continuing to condemn the war internally.

8. Consequently, many Russians are increasingly distrustful of political news from a broad range of sources. Instead, they put their trust in local media. Local problems and news seem much more important and relevant to them. Moreover, they feel that, unlike the war, local issues are at least sometimes within their ability to influence.

9. At the same time, the war is weighing people's emotional state. Many of our interlocutors admit that they experience anxiety, tension, uncertainty, fear, even if these things are not usually spoken about openly. The departure of sons and husbands to war makes women "scream at the top of their lungs." However, people rarely share such emotions with others, and if they do, they do so in groups with close friends.

10. Many Russians who are not interested in politics may justify or condemn the war depending on the communicative context.

• They tend to non-emotionally justify the war through normalization ("there are always wars") or rationalization ("it was necessary") when asked about it directly in more formalized settings, such as research interviews.

• They are more likely to criticize the war when prompted to think about how it negatively affects them as ordinary Russians. This criticism differs from that of war opponents. For the latter, the war is a moral crime against Ukraine, whereas for apolitical Russians, the war is seen as something that is tearing apart Russian society and harming ordinary people. However, this criticism does not lead apolitical Russians to question the war's necessity or inevitability, nor does it extend to criticizing the Russian government.

• They tend to emotionally justify the war when confronted with traditional antiwar narratives. When Russia is accused of committing moral crimes against the Ukrainian people, they often take such accusations personally and attempt to defend their own dignity.

10. Some people have experienced a strengthened sense of national identity, and sometimes a wish for greater solidarity arises. It's important to note that this increased sense of national identity does not lead Russians to adopt the official imperial brand of nationalism. Unlike the Kremlin, ordinary people live in a world of nation states, not in a world of imperial fantasies (according to which Ukraine is not a real state and Ukrainians are an inferior people).

11. A feeling of uncertainty is what truly unites Russians today. Even though people choose various strategies to cope with this feeling, it still significantly complicates the ability to plan one's life and plunges Russians into pessimism.

Thus, on the one hand, the formerly extraordinary nature of the war is giving way to normalization: it is gradually becoming something ordinary, another unremarkable part of the surrounding world. Many Russians end up rejecting both the Kremlin's attempts to turn ordinary citizens into ideological allies and those of the antiwar liberal opposition to force society to actively experience guilt and fight back. On the other hand, the war constantly reminds them of its existence in the background, creating new threats, new anxieties, and new reasons for discontent.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, January 13, 2025 7:03 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Victor Pelevin made his name in 90s Russia with scathing satires of authoritarianism. But while his literary peers have faced censorship and fled the country, he still sells millions. Has he become a Kremlin apologist?

By Sophie Pinkham | Thu 9 Jan 2025

Two weeks after Cool was published, an unknown person affixed a plaque to a building in the brutalist late-Soviet high-rise complex where Pelevin spent much of his early life. It reads:

In this housing complex, in a three-room apartment, Victor Olegovich Pelevin lived with his family: a world-famous Russian and Soviet writer, winner of 23 literary awards, an opponent of consumer culture and the author of the quote: “An anti-Russian conspiracy certainly exists.”

A similar plaque had appeared to celebrate the singer Shaman, whose whole career is based on his eager support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. This is sad company for a writer who was once celebrated around the world. The quote, which comes from Generation P, seems intended to position Pelevin as a proud Russian nationalist who supports the war in Ukraine. But the person who made the plaque was either a lazy reader, or willfully misconstruing Pelevin’s original work. The full sentence in Generation P is longer: “An anti-Russian conspiracy certainly exists – the only problem is that the entire adult population of Russia participates in it.”

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2025/jan/09/victor-pelevin-the-myster
ious-novelist-who-foresaw-putins-russia-and-then-came-to-symbolise-its-moral-decay

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, January 13, 2025 7:26 AM

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Jan 8, 2025
The Kyiv Independent’s Kate Tsurkan discusses with Garry Kasparov, Russian chess grandmaster and political activist based in the United States, the current state of Russia, its continued pursuit of empire and the failures of the Russian opposition to create meaningful change.



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, January 14, 2025 5:34 AM

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North Korean Troops Rolled A Rare Air-Defense Vehicle Into Kursk. Confused Russians Blew It Up.

By David Axe | Jan 13, 2025, 02:44pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/13/north-korean-troops-r
olled-a-rare-air-defense-vehicle-into-kursk-confused-russians-blew-it-up/

When North Korea’s 12,000-strong 11th Army Corps deployed to Kursk Oblast in western Russia to help Russian troops battle an invasion by a powerful Ukrainian force, they brought along anti-tank vehicles, howitzers and rocket launchers.

They also brought along a rarely seen air-defense vehicle combining a large wheeled chassis with the radar and missile launchers from a Russian-designed Tor surface-to-air missile vehicle, which normally rides on tracks.

The customized North Korean Tor is so unusual that the Russians themselves apparently didn’t recognize it as belonging to their side. On or just before Friday, Russian drones spotted and struck the North Korean vehicle, destroying it.

Celebrating what they clearly believed was a devastating strike on Ukrainian air defenses along the 250-square-mile Ukrainian-held salient in Kursk, Russian forces circulated a video montage of their attack on the North Korean vehicle.

It took a few days for outside observers to figure out exactly what the Russians blew up in Kursk last week. “It seems that what was originally claimed to be a ‘Western-made radar system,’ is very likely to be a North Korean Tor SAM version on a cab chassis,” Polish analyst WarVehicleTracker noted.

“It’s funny ... that Russia would have hit their own SAM,” the analyst added. It’s possible Russian drone groups in Kursk had been “left in the dark about the arrival” of the rare North Korean system.

It’s a painful loss for the 60,000-person Russian-North Korean force in Kursk, which has been trying since November to dislodge 20,000 Ukrainians from the salient—and mostly failing. One North Korean infantry assault left behind 200 dead and wounded. A more recent Russian attack ended with 400 casualties: an entire battalion.

Ukraine’s drones are doing much of the killing. “The enemy has achieved sufficient scale and variety in its drones and has honed its tactics for their use,” one Russian blogger explained. Tanks in particular “simply don’t reach the line for launching an attack.”

Desperate for some relief from the relentless drone strikes, the Russians need every air-defense battery they can get—whether from their own arsenal or North Korea’s. The North Koreans obliged with a missile launcher few have seen outside of a Pyongyang parade.

And then Russian drones destroyed it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, January 14, 2025 5:48 AM

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Russian authorities continue increasing social service benefits to Russian veterans of the war in Ukraine likely as part of efforts to increase military recruitment. The Russian Government announced on January 13 that it began allocating grants on January 1 of up to seven million rubles to Russian veterans to start their own agricultural and livestock enterprises.[71] (Typical annual salary is 1.25 million rubles.)

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-13-2025

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_federal_subjects_by_aver
age_wage

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, January 14, 2025 1:25 PM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Kremlin claims Ukraine will cease to exist in 2025

Tue, January 14, 2025 - 16:55

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/kremlin-claims-ukraine-will-cease-to-e
xist-1736866507.html

An aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Nikolai Patrushev, claimed that Ukraine will cease to exist in 2025, according to the Russian outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda.

According to him, negotiations to end the war in Ukraine should be conducted between Russia and the United States.

"If we talk about the specific prospects for the further development of events considering the Trump factor, we respect his statements. I believe that negotiations on Ukraine should be held between Russia and the US without the involvement of other Western countries," Patrushev said.

In his opinion, there is "nothing to discuss" with London and Brussels. Patrushev believes that the EU leadership cannot speak on behalf of many of its members, including Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, and Romania, as these countries have a "balanced position toward Russia."

He also spoke of the Russians' "brotherly attitude" toward Ukrainians and claimed that Moscow supposedly cares about what is happening in Ukraine. Putin's aide traditionally blamed Ukraine for destroying its own cities.

"It is especially concerning that the violent imposition of neo-Nazi ideology and intense Russophobia are destroying Ukraine's once-flourishing cities, particularly Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk," he stated.

The Center for Counteracting Disinformation responded to Patrushev's statements:

Patrushev is afraid of the truth that, in the next 50 years, the chances of a controlled breakup of the Russian Federation into national formations are extremely high. The breakup is a certainty if Russia enters into direct conflict with NATO.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, January 14, 2025 1:52 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Patrushev is afraid of the truth that, in the next 50 years, the chances of a controlled [By who? The collective west? You wish!] breakup of the Russian Federation into national formations are extremely high. The breakup is a certainty if Russia enters into direct conflict with NATO.


OMG, so much cope!

Meanwhile ... Ukraine's Kursk intrusion is being whittled down, with an estimated 50,000 Ukrainian killed and wounded.

Russia is creating pockets and caudrons all along the front, except in the southernmost part (Zaparozhiy. Kherson). The most active fighting is in Donetsk. There is a largish city, Konstantinovka, between Pokrovsk and Chasov Yar, and Russian forces have taken most of the seven major roadways around Pokrovsk, including the major highway that runs from Pokrovsk to Konstantinovka, cutting off a major supply to Konstantinovka. Pokrovsk itself, formerly a major logistics hub for the Ukrainian army, is half-surrounded and no longer useful.

There is another smaller town south of Pokrovsk, Selika Novasilka, also a former logistics hub with six roadways entering it, that is now completely surrounded.

Ukrainians depended on several layers of fortified cities for defense. These cities and villages - Chasov Yar, Konstantinivka, Selika Novasilka, Pokrovsk, Sieversk, Kupiansk, Lyman ... appear to be the last layer of defense. It looks like Russia is about to penetrate that last layer in the Donetsk region, opening the way to the Dneiper River.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Tuesday, January 14, 2025 3:09 PM

THG


T

How A Network Of KGB Agents SECRETLY Infiltrated And Strangled Russian Businesses





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Tuesday, January 14, 2025 3:37 PM

THG


T

BREAKING: Ukraine HAMMERS Russia With MASSIVE Drone Attack, Putin PANICS






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Tuesday, January 14, 2025 3:49 PM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


When A Key Ukrainian Brigade Disintegrated, Leaders In Kyiv Panicked — And Then Came Badly Needed Reform

The 155th Mechanized Brigade’s dysfunction prompted new thinking in Kyiv.

By David Axe | Jan 14, 2025, 09:00am EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/14/a-key-ukrainian-briga
de-disintegrated-leaders-in-kyiv-panicked-and-then-came-badly-needed-reform/

The disintegration of the Ukrainian army’s 155th Mechanized Brigade reportedly taught Ukrainian leaders an important lesson — one that could help outnumbered Ukrainian troops hold the line as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds toward its fourth year.

Moving forward, any fresh troops Kyiv mobilizes will replenish existing brigades rather than contributing to the formation of new brigades. The new policy came directly from Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky, according to Ukrainian war correspondent Yuriy Butusov, who first reported the change.

“If Butusov's statements are accurate, this is excellent news,” wrote Finnish analyst Joni Askola. “Ukraine must prioritize replenishing losses in existing units at this time, as this is far more critical than establishing new brigades for the moment.”

Existing brigades tend to have experienced command staffs and plenty of highly trained specialist troops—drone operators, engineers, medics, et cetera — but often suffer dire shortages of infantry.

It’s the infantry—the “trigger-pullers”—who do most of the dying, after all. It’s not uncommon for a Ukrainian brigade nominally overseeing 2,000 or more troops to have less than a battalion—400 people on paper—of trigger-pullers at any given time, despite most brigades theoretically possessing several battalion-equivalents of infantry.

Given the infantry shortages in many brigades, it was surely galling to war-weary Ukrainian commanders to observe what happened with the 155th Mechanized Brigade as it completed its training in Poland, France and western Ukraine and began deploying to Pokrovsk—the locus of the fighting in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast—in later December and early January.

Poorly led and unevenly equipped, the brigade was falling apart as it arrived in Pokrovsk with its freshly supplied German-made Leopard 2 tanks and French-made Caesar howitzers.

The unit was supposed to have more than 5,800 troops, making it much larger than most of the Ukrainian ground forces’ roughly 100 other combat brigades. But around 1,700 of those 5,800 troops went absent without leave from the brigade at some point during its nine-month work-up.

As recently as November, nearly 500 soldiers were reportedly still AWOL. And there was a shortage of funding for the small explosive drones that give most Ukrainian brigades their main striking power.

The 155th Mechanized Brigade’s dire condition was the result of an “organizational and leadership failure,” according to Tatarigami, the founder of the Frontelligence Insight analysis group in Ukraine.

Lt. Col. Bohdan Krotevych, chief of staff of the Ukrainian National Guard’s Azov Brigade, was less diplomatic in his assessment. “Can it be idiocy to create new brigades and equip them with such equipment, having incomplete existing ones?” Krotevych asked.

In its first battles around Pokrovsk this month, the 155th Mechanized Brigade reportedly suffered stinging losses—and may have written off some its hard-to-replace Leopard 2s.

Zelensky apparently had had enough. On Friday, he ordered the policy change, according to Butusov.

What this means for a handful of newly formed—but incomplete—mechanized brigades is unclear. But moving forward, new Ukrainian recruits should fall in with existing brigades, potentially bringing these veteran units back to full strength—and positioning them for the fourth year of the wider war.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, January 14, 2025 7:11 PM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine is rolling out production of fibre-optic drones

By Bohdan Miroshnychenko | Monday, 13 January 2025, 11:34

The biggest beneficiaries of the spread of this new technology are Chinese factories, which sell spools of fibre-optic cable to both sides of the war.

"We recently learned that one of the Chinese factories has been producing fibre-optic spools for Russia for seven months. We now order from them as well", one Ukrainian drone manufacturer said off the record.

"Due to the high cost, it seemed that fibre-optic drones would never become widespread, but prices in the Ukrainian market are now falling", said Babenko. "Previously, the cheapest ones cost UAH 60,000–80,000 (approximately US$1,400–1,800), but now they are around 30,000 UAH (approximately US$700)." In his opinion, costs could become even lower if companies start independently manufacturing the key component – fibre-optic spools.

"We will produce the components ourselves. We have calculated that after scaling up production, our serial fibre-optic drone will only be UAH 3,000–6,000 (approximately US$70–140) more expensive than a standard radio-controlled one."

Much more at https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2025/01/13/7493257/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, January 14, 2025 10:22 PM

THG


T

RUSSIAN OIL REFINERIES SLAMMED, SOUTH KOREA ARRESTS PRESIDENT






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Tuesday, January 14, 2025 10:54 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Ukraine is rolling out production of fibre-optic drones

By Bohdan Miroshnychenko | Monday, 13 January 2025, 11:34

The biggest beneficiaries of the spread of this new technology are Chinese factories, which sell spools of fibre-optic cable to both sides of the war.

"We recently learned that one of the Chinese factories has been producing fibre-optic spools for Russia for seven months. We now order from them as well", one Ukrainian drone manufacturer said off the record.

"Due to the high cost, it seemed that fibre-optic drones would never become widespread, but prices in the Ukrainian market are now falling", said Babenko. "Previously, the cheapest ones cost UAH 60,000–80,000 (approximately US$1,400–1,800), but now they are around 30,000 UAH (approximately US$700)." In his opinion, costs could become even lower if companies start independently manufacturing the key component – fibre-optic spools.

"We will produce the components ourselves. We have calculated that after scaling up production, our serial fibre-optic drone will only be UAH 3,000–6,000 (approximately US$70–140) more expensive than a standard radio-controlled one."

Much more at https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2025/01/13/7493257/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two



We're paying for that.

For the next 6 days.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Wednesday, January 15, 2025 6:15 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

We're paying for that.

For the next 6 days.
Who is the "We"? Trumptards don't pay. They cheat on their taxes. Trump claims he paid but did not. http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63004&mid=12101
76#1210176

Being sued because of debts? Leave Those Troubles Behind When You Join the Russian Army!

Russia continues efforts to bolster military recruitment efforts by offering financial incentives to those who sign military service contracts with the Russian MoD.

BBC's Russia service reported on January 14 that at least 12 Russian federal subjects (regions) increased one-time payments to individuals who sign MoD contracts at the end of 2024 and the start of 2025.[96] BBC's Russia Service reported that more than 60 percent of all Russian regions offer volunteers a one-time payment exceeding one million rubles (approximately $9,670) and that one-time payments exceeding two million rubles (approximately $19,350) are offered in 25 percent of all Russian regions. Samara Oblast officials are reportedly offering recruits a one-time signing bonus of four million rubles (approximately $38,690) until February 1.

Saratov Oblast's Yabloko Party Deputy Chairperson Kirill Rumyantsev reported on January 14 that local officials are offering to suspend legal proceedings against debtors in exchange for the debtor signing military service contracts.[97]

Rumyantsev published photos of such offers purportedly sent to individuals with significant debts.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-14-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 15, 2025 10:09 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Trump advisers concede Ukraine peace deal is months away

By Gram Slattery | January 15, 20255:54 AM CST

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-advisers-concede-ukraine-pe
ace-deal-is-months-away-2025-01-15/

Summary

• Trump advisers are quietly backing away from the campaign promise to end the war on Day One

• New extended timeline - months, not days or weeks - recognizes the intractability of the conflict

• Putin sending mixed messages about readiness to resolve the conflict

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 16, 2025 12:12 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Watching the frontline as I do, I was puzzled why Russia left so many “pockets" partly open. Didn't understand why they just didn't close the cauldron and oblitrate the troops inside.

Finally heard an explanation that makes sense.

The idea is that by leaving an "escape route" open, Russia can decimate Ukrainian troops on the run. And then Russia can take over the contended territory after it's been abandoned, without much fighting.





-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Thursday, January 16, 2025 8:14 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Watching the frontline as I do, I was puzzled why Russia left so many “pockets" partly open. Didn't understand why they just didn't close the cauldron and oblitrate the troops inside.

Finally heard an explanation that makes sense.

The idea is that by leaving an "escape route" open, Russia can decimate Ukrainian troops on the run. And then Russia can take over the contended territory after it's been abandoned, without much fighting.
Today, rather than taking land, the sensible objective is to destroy the enemy army. That is why Ukraine attacks Russian ammo dumps, Russian refineries, Russian headquarters, Russian airfields, etc. If Russia knew what it was doing, it would be attempting as fast as it could to increase the size of its Army and decrease the size of Ukraine's Army. But Russians lack patriotism and won't join the fight unless they are bribed with several years' worth of income before signing a contract to fight.

Signym, google https://www.google.com/search?q=how+large+was+Russian+army+at+the+end+
of+ww2+compared+to+the+beginning%3F

The Russian Army kept getting bigger and bigger while the German Army got smaller and smaller. The Americans played their part in Russia's victory by destroying Germany's ammo factories and fuel refineries.

You can see Russia's inefficient way of making war in the numbers:

Ukraine’s military now totals 880,000 soldiers, facing 600,000 Russian troops, Zelensky says

By Tim Zadorozhnyy | January 15, 2025, 7:11 PM

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-now-totals-880-000-soldi
ers-facing-600-000-russian-troops-zelensky-says/

Zelensky also reported progress in arms production, saying that Ukraine now covers 33-34% of its annual weapons needs — up from less than 10% before the full-scale invasion.

Europe and the U.S. supply more than 60% of Ukraine’s weaponry, with each accounting for about 30%.

******

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on January 15 that about 600,000 Russian soldiers are currently operating in Ukraine.[57]

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in June 2024 that nearly 700,000 Russian soldiers were fighting in Ukraine.[58]

Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Head Major General Vadym Skibitskyi reported in November 2024 that Russia had deployed nearly 580,000 personnel to Ukraine.[59]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-15-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 16, 2025 8:54 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


North Korean troops are far from ‘cannon fodder,’ Ukrainian soldiers say

By Veronika Melkozerova | January 13, 2025 1:11 pm CET

https://www.politico.eu/article/north-koreans-skilled-fighters-rather-
kill-themselves-then-get-captured-ukrainian-soldiers-say/

Ukrainian soldiers describe the North Korean soldiers as being very far from inexperienced cannon fodder.

“They are young, motivated, physically fit, brave, and good at using small arms. They are also disciplined. They have everything you need for a good infantryman,” Chepurnyi said.

Yuriy Bondar, a Ukrainian soldier with the 80th separate airborne assault brigade, said North Korean soldiers have extremely good physical training and have stable morale.

“The enemy does not surrender. They eliminate themselves according to the same scheme, a grenade near the head, and go. Those who remain on the battlefield are doused with flammable liquid and burned,” Bondar said in a post on Facebook on Sunday.

Bondar also confirmed that the North Koreans possess an extremely high level of mastery of small arms, successfully shooting down “a surprising number” of Ukrainian drones.

“They demonstrate psychological resilience. Imagine, one runs and attracts attention and the other from an ambush shoots down a drone with aimed fire,” Bondar said, claiming that underestimation of the enemy will always lead to a defeat.

“As one commander said, compared to the soldiers of the DPRK, Wagner mercenaries circa 2022 are just children. And I believe him,” Bondar said.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 16, 2025 9:02 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Watching the frontline as I do, I was puzzled why Russia left so many “pockets" partly open. Didn't understand why they just didn't close the cauldron and oblitrate the troops inside.
Finally heard an explanation that makes sense.
The idea is that by leaving an "escape route" open, Russia can decimate Ukrainian troops on the run. And then Russia can take over the contended territory after it's been abandoned, without much fighting.

SECOND: Today, rather than taking land, the sensible objective is to destroy the enemy army. That is why Ukraine attacks Russian ammo dumps, Russian refineries, Russian headquarters, Russian airfields, etc. If Russia knew what it was doing, it would be attempting as fast as it could to increase the size of its Army and decrease the size of Ukraine's Army.
And that isexactly what's happening.


Quote:
SECOND: The Russian Army kept getting bigger and bigger while the German Army got smaller and smaller.
Substitute Ukrainian for German, and that describes the current situation. Also, America is on the German ... er, Ukrainian ... side niw.

And here is the source of your misunderstanding ...
Quote:
Ukraine’s military now totals 880,000 soldiers, facing 600,000 Russian troops, Zelensky says


Zelensky lies, just like you.

We can see how well Ukraine is doing recruiting soldiers bc the keep lowering the conscription age. And rather than inducing people to join voluntarily, Kiev is literally dragging men off the streets.

That tells you how well Ukraine is doing on the front line!



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Thursday, January 16, 2025 9:05 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


2 generations from now, all Ukrainian children will be half black or brown Muslim.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Thursday, January 16, 2025 12:11 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Zelensky lies, just like you.

We can see how well Ukraine is doing recruiting soldiers bc the keep lowering the conscription age. And rather than inducing people to join voluntarily, Kiev is literally dragging men off the streets.

That tells you how well Ukraine is doing on the front line!
Signym, my thesis is that nearly all misfortune is caused by the wrong thinking and actions of the unfortunate person or nation. A more commonly held way of looking at life is: It is not my fault! It is their fault. I am not to blame for what happened to me.

I'll give you examples of Ukraine's wrong thinking as the cause of Ukraine's problems:

Ukraine gave away its nukes in exchange for promises from Russia.

Ukraine did not buy or design a weapon to destroy the Kerch Strait Bridge as soon as Russia started building the bridge.

Ukraine wasn't ready for a Russian invasion.

Ukraine's military and government are incompetent but saved from instantaneous defeat by Russia's greater incompetence.

Ukraine is fighting for its life because of faulty thinking. 6ixStringJack will be fighting for his life someday soon because of his faulty thinking about tobacco, alcohol, vaccines, dentists, unemployment versus working, etc.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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islamic jihadi member of the US Army?...becomes a terrorist and kills people at Louisiana New Orleans New Years Celebrations
Thu, January 30, 2025 08:45 - 21 posts
Putin's Legacy
Thu, January 30, 2025 08:40 - 117 posts
Trade-wars, embargoes, sanctions, economic warfar.e Currency Wars, taxes tariffs and other trade restrictions
Thu, January 30, 2025 08:38 - 15 posts
Personality Test
Thu, January 30, 2025 08:33 - 59 posts
North Korea
Thu, January 30, 2025 08:30 - 264 posts
Why is Russia losing so much military equipment?
Thu, January 30, 2025 08:25 - 76 posts
Dutch right film maker banned from LONDONISTAN
Thu, January 30, 2025 08:23 - 96 posts
Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
Thu, January 30, 2025 08:21 - 7812 posts
TERRORISM EXPANDS TO GERMANY ... and the USA, Hungary, and Sweden
Thu, January 30, 2025 08:19 - 38 posts
American Air Power
Thu, January 30, 2025 08:16 - 28 posts
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