Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Wednesday, December 3, 2025 08:06
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 362977
PAGE 190 of 190

Sunday, November 30, 2025 2:58 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

I see TRUMP!RUSSIA!COLLUSION! is rising from the grave.

Anything to shift the blame for our impending defeat.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Sunday, November 30, 2025 3:09 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Field littered with fiberoptic debris.

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1928541569348489584

Ukraine hasn't been able to produce unjamnable fiberoptic drones in quantity, or to field night vision drones when necessary.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Sunday, November 30, 2025 3:09 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Ukraine is finished. Fuck Ukraine.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Monday, December 1, 2025 3:40 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Ukraine is finished. Fuck Ukraine.

There Are Piles Of Dead Russian Troops In The 'Valley Of Death' North Of Pokrovsk

The Ukrainians are shifting to a rural defense

Nov 30, 2025

https://www.trenchart.us/p/there-are-piles-of-dead-russian-troops

After a yearlong siege, Russian forces are gradually consolidating their control over the ruins of Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad—pre-war populations 60,000 and 46,000, respectively—in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.

Outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian brigades, long starved of manpower owing to Ukraine’s corrupt and inefficient mobilization system, are retreating north to the fields and villages between Pokrovsk and the twin cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, 25 miles to the north.

The twin cities, combined population 400,000, are the next major objectives for the Russian Center Group of Forces, whose 150,000 troops outnumber the local Ukrainian corps five to one. But there are good reasons to believe the march won’t be an easy one. If it took the Russians a year and tens of thousands of casualties to capture Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, it may take them even longer—and cost even more—to even begin contesting Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

That’s because there’s a lot of open terrain between Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk. And the Ukrainians are increasingly shifting from an urban defense strategy to a strategy that hinges on a layered defense along the fields between cities.

Cities are great for sheltering dug-in infantry fighting on the defense, but Ukraine is desperately short of infantry. There may be 100,000 empty infantry billets in a military with barely a million people. Open terrain, which offers scant cover for attacking troops, is perfect for a drone-first defense—and Ukraine is flush with drones.

Death valley

Separate lines of effort by the Russian Center Group of Forces north of Pokrovsk offer a horrific preview of the coming long bloody march for the Russians eyeing Kramatorsk. Russian infantry and Russian mechanized forces are both struggling to advance across the Kazenyi Torets River and past the village of Novotoretsk.

There’s a line of Ukrainian fortifications running along the river—razor wire and anti-vehicle concrete obstacles—that the Russians have been trying to breach for months. But there’s little cover: few tree-lines or buildings where the Russians can hide from first-person-view drones. Winter fog can blind drones, but the fog is fickle: it comes and goes.

The Russians have cut the wire in at least one spot near Novotoretsk, but it and other chokepoints are well-known to the Ukrainians. It’s not for no reason that analyst Moklasen referred to the area as the “Novotoretsk death valley.” One recent video, recorded by a Russian assault trooper, depicts an infantry group hustling along the “death valley” past literally scores of Russian corpses.

There’s at least one other heap of dead Russians in the same area.

Russian mechanized groups are struggling, as well. More and than once, tanks and other armored vehicles have gotten mired in the Kazenyi Torets River. Bridgelayers can help span the river, but they’re big fat targets for drones.

At least twice in recent days, Russian vehicle columns have tried to cross the river over hastily emplaced log bridges or the aluminum spans laid by MTU-20 bridgelayers. Drones knocked out at least one MTU-20. The Russians retreated, leaving behind a tank, an MT-LB armored tractor and a clutch of unarmored cars and vans.

Expect similar outcomes in the coming months as the Russians push toward Kramatorsk. For nearly four years of wider war, the Ukrainians’ impulse has been to fortify the big cities—and hold them for as long as possible. That impulse may no longer be the right one.

“Cities were once the main point of Ukrainian defensive strategy,” French analyst Clément Molin explained. “The overwhelming number of Russian soldiers and the possibility to hide easily from drones inside cities” now make an urban defense “more difficult,” Molin wrote.

“Paradoxically,” Molin wrote, “it has become easier to defend fields or villages than large cities: fewer soldiers are needed, the Russian infantry is quickly spotted and the increasingly numerous obstacles (ditches, barbed wire) sometimes prevent progress.”

Thanks for reading Trench Art! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, December 1, 2025 3:46 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I see TRUMP!RUSSIA!COLLUSION! is rising from the grave.

Anything to shift the blame for our impending defeat.

"Impending" means this year? Or in February? 2026? 2027? "Impending" loses meaning when used by Signym:

Prominent Russian milbloggers continue to contradict the Kremlin’s efforts to portray Russian victory in Ukraine as imminent or inevitable, however. A prominent Russian milblogger acknowledged that the tactical battlefield situation favors Russia, particularly near Hulyaipole, but stated that Russian state media coverage of Russian progress on the battlefield once again resembles “joyfully idiotic, rosy, self-indulgent nonsense” that does not support the war effort.[22]

The milblogger stated that such narratives of an imminent Russian victory create the false perception domestically that the Russian society no longer needs to urgently support the war effort against Ukraine, a competent adversary that uses NATO equipment and intelligence. The milblogger also noted that continuing the war effort in Ukraine will cost Russia further state resources amid growing societal dissatisfaction with the introduction of new fees and rising taxes in 2026.[23] The milblogger added that Russia continues to face manpower shortages and that the ongoing volunteer recruitment campaign is not generating a sufficient number of forces to demobilize Russian personnel that the Kremlin involuntarily called up in September 2022.

Girkin similarly assessed in a letter published on November 26 that Russia could develop its possible future seizures of Hulyaipole and Orikhiv into operational successes only if Russia has enough reserves to exploit these tactical advances.[24] Girkin observed that the most recent six-month Russian offensive on Kupyansk did not result in a “big victory” and assessed that Russian efforts to seize the “secondary” objectives of Pokrovsk, Vovchansk, Siversk, and Lyman are only tactical and will not be quick, will not degrade the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian military writ large, and will not collapse the front lines. Girkin implied that Russia has enough troops to support tactical advances but lacks the necessary reserves and resources to achieve its strategic goals, such as seizing Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv cities.

ISW continues to assess that while the situation in some specific sectors of the front line is serious, particularly in Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole directions, the Kremlin’s efforts to present Russia’s victory in Ukraine as inevitable do not correspond to the battlefield reality.[25]

It is notable that the Kremlin’s misrepresentation of the situation on the ground was so far from reality that prominent pro-war milbloggers and ultranationalist figures continue to feel compelled to issue their own corrective statements.[26]

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-november-30-2025/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, December 1, 2025 11:26 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Ukraine attacked a Turkish-owned tanker Mersin as it was carrying Russian oil off the coast of Senegal.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/tanker-linked-to-russia-trade-h
it-by-explosions-off-west-africa/2-1-1909083

https://gcaptain.com/shadow-fleet-crisis-deepens-third-tanker-incident
-off-senegal-follows-black-sea-drone-strikes/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, December 1, 2025 11:34 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Ukraine is finished. Fuck Ukraine.
There Are Piles Of Dead Russian Troops In The 'Valley Of Death' North Of Pokrovsk

I would absolutely hate to burst your bubble, but I don't give one single fuck about dead Russians either, and I never did.

Ukraine is fucking toast, and Zelensky is a dead man.

Period.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Monday, December 1, 2025 7:20 PM

THG

Keep it real please

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Field littered with fiberoptic debris.

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1928541569348489584

Ukraine hasn't been able to produce unjamnable fiberoptic drones in quantity, or to field night vision drones when necessary.

Hitting over one million casualties

The Russian Armed Forces have suffered well over one million casualties since Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Recent independent analysis of Putin’s losses revealed the number of soldiers killed in the war has hit a new milestone.

According to a recent count from the independent Russian media outlet Mediazona and BBC Russia, at least 152,142 Russian soldiers have been killed since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. However, this number doesn’t tell the full story of Moscow’s losses.

Excluded from the data are figures regarding the fighters from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, according to The Moscow Times, which reported the latest number of verified Russian personnel dead published by BBC Russia on November 28th.

BBC Russia noted in its reporting that the figures it has been able to verify are likely just 45% to 65% of Russia’s total killed in action. The outlet noted that a significant number of Moscow’s war dead remain on the battlefield and have not been accounted for in the data.
The real Russian death toll could range between 234,000 to 338,100 individuals. These figures do not include personnel killed from the Donetsk or Luhansk People’s Republics.

When losses from the Donetsk or Luhansk People’s Republics are added, total Russian and pro-Russian troop losses would increase by another 21,000 to 23,500, which would put the real number of Russian forces killed in the conflict between 255,000 to 361,600 military personnel.

Mediazona and BBC Russia have been counting and verifying Russia’s war dead since the beginning of the conflict. Volunteers have used publicly available data and verifiable sources like social media, reports, and statements from regional authorities to build out a verified list of Russia’s war dead.

The latest data revealed that Moscow’s losses in Ukraine have fallen disproportionately on residents from small towns and the rural regions of Russia. The highest losses have occurred in regions outside of Moscow.

Roughly 67% of Russia's verified dead came from settlements that have a population of less than one hundred thousand. “These areas account for less than half the country’s population,” The Moscow Times explained.

According to the data, Moscow, a city that is home to over 13,000 million residents, has only suffered 4,520 deaths, whereas the Russian republics of Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, and the Sverdlovsk region have suffered 7,643, 6,599, and 5,386 deaths. These were the regions with the most deaths in Russia, according to the data.
The estimate of Russia's war dead from Mediazona and BBC Russia is in line with other recent estimates from Western intelligence and Western world leaders. In June 2025, a report from British intelligence put the number of Russia’s dead and missing at 250,000.

“The Russian Armed Forces have likely sustained approximately 1,000,000 casualties (killed and wounded) since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022,” the UK Defense Intelligence report explained on June 12th, 2025.

“Of these, it is likely around 250,000 Russian soldiers are killed or missing (presumed dead), Russia's largest losses in an active conflict since the Second World War,” the report continued. Russian permanent combat losses stood at 400,000 to 500,000 at that time in the conflict. This number has likely only increased in the months since.

In July, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that Moscow had suffered 100,000 soldiers killed in 2025 alone at that time in the conflict.

US President Donald Trump later echoed Rubio’s comments in an August 1st Truth Social post that revealed 20,000 Russian soldiers died in July, and a total of 112,500 had been lost since the start of 2025.

A study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington, released in June, revealed that its analysis showed roughly one million Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

On November 30th, the Ukrainian General Staff recorded in its daily report on Russian personnel and equipment losses that Russia’s losses in the conflict stood at 1,172,860, which is close to hitting a dangerous new milestone.
How high Russian losses could reach before the conflict is over isn’t clear. But it's likely they will only get worse. The recent reporting on Moscow’s war dead follows another important report that revealed Russia is sending troops into battle without helmets or body armor, according to new video footage cited by The Telegraph.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-battlefield-losses-surge
-to-alarming-new-level-in-ukraine/ss-AA1RuxC4?ocid=msedgntp&pc=EDBBAN&cvid=0dd0f1d6ad424f1af150bb0dc371fb17&ei=44#image=18

What the field is littered with is Russian bodies.

T

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Monday, December 1, 2025 9:54 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

THGR, did you even READ your article??

Quote:
In June 2025, a report from British intelligence put the number of Russia’s dead and missing at 250,000.

Not a million. Try to get past the headline, m'kay?

Quote:

Russia Proclaims Final Victory Over Key City Of Pokrovsk On Eve Of Putin-Witkoff Peace Plan Meeting

PICTURE:
https://topwar.ru/uploads/posts/2025-01/2fe6f49ed1_snimok_2.webp

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Tuesday, December 2, 2025 7:13 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Prominent Russian milbloggers continue to undermine the Kremlin’s effort to portray a Russian victory in Ukraine as imminent or inevitable. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger responded to the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) December 1 claim that Russian forces seized Klynove (north of Kostyantynivka, about 10 kilometers from the current Russian frontline) by criticizing the MoD’s repeated exaggerations about battlefield successes.[13]

The milblogger claimed that the Russian MoD is making premature claims that Russian forces seized settlements without offering any supporting evidence and is even claiming Russian success in settlements several kilometers away from confirmed Russian positions.

The milblogger noted that the Russian MoD has made clearly false claims over five settlements in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area in 2025 alone — Orikhovo-Vasylivka in February 2025, Novomarkove in March 2025, Markove and Mayske in September 2025, and Fedorivka in October 2025.

The milblogger added that recent developments on the battlefield are strengthening the current Russian negotiating position and insinuated that the Russian MoD is actually hurting its negotiating position by making false claims that could easily “backfire” with the emergence of evidence to the contrary. The Kremlin has repeatedly made exaggerated claims about the battlefield as part of its ongoing cognitive warfare effort to falsely portray a Russian victory as inevitable, such that Ukraine and the West should concede to Russia’s demands now.[14]

ISW continues to assess that while the situation in some specific sectors of the front line is serious, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole directions, the Kremlin’s efforts to present Russia’s victory in Ukraine as inevitable do not correspond to battlefield realities.[15] It is notable that the Kremlin’s misrepresentation of the situation on the ground continues to be so far from reality that prominent pro-war milbloggers continue to feel compelled to issue their own corrective statements.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-december-1-2025/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, December 2, 2025 7:44 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Ukraine's Flamingo Missile May Be A Lie

Despite big claims, there have been very few confirmable Flamingo strikes

Dec 01, 2025

https://www.trenchart.us/p/ukraines-flamingo-missile-may-be

Ukraine’s new Flamingo cruise missile is a six tons of brute force firepower, ranging 1,900 miles under inertial and satellite guidance to deliver a 2,200-pound warhead.

It’s simple, purportedly inexpensive at half a million dollars and—owing to its many off-the-shelf components—mass-producible on a tight timeline.

In short, the ground-launched Flamingo may be just the thing Ukraine needs to extend its campaign of deep strikes even deeper into Russia—and inflict real and lasting damage.

Or, the Flamingo is a scam by manufacturer Fire Point. It’s not for no reason the company is under investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine for corruption and sheltering a draft-dodger.

According to The Kyiv Independent, NABU alleged that Timur Mindich—an ally of Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky—headed a group getting kickbacks from government contracts. Mindich allegedly has ties to Fire Point, although the company denies it.

It’s a mess. And while it’s obvious Fire Point does build effective weapons—the FP-1 and FP-2 attack drones stand out—it’s not yet clear the Flamingo is among them.

When Fire Point showed the Associated Press a warehouse containing around a dozen Flamingos back in August, company spokesperson Iryna Terekh insisted it was already building a missile day, and could build seven a day as soon as October.

But a careful count by observer Thorkill tells a different story. It’s possible Fire Point is building very few Flamingos—and Ukrainian forces are, as a result, firing very few of them.

Read Thorkill’s thread for all the details.
https://x.com/Thorkill65/status/1994848153678274732

Quote:
"Ten Times Better Than the Tomahawk" - An Analysis of All Combat Uses of Fire Point's FP-5 "Flaming" Missile.

"The Flaming is ten times better than the Tomahawk." "The Tomahawk is completely obsolete. Our missile performs better," I. Terek, introducing herself to journalists as Fire Point's Technical Director, said in an interview in early September 2025. However, when Ms. Terek, previously a manufacturer of concrete garden planters, was asked about the combat use and effectiveness of the FP-5 cruise missile, she cited confidentiality agreements allegedly issued by the Ukrainian General Staff.

“In summary,” Thorkill wrote, “a total of nine FP-5 Flamingos have been used in combat to date, bringing the number close to that shown to the A.P. journalist in a hangar near Kyiv during the missile’s public reveal in August.”

There have been four or five likely Flamingo strikes:

1. The Ukrainian general staff claimed Ukrainian forces fired a Flamingo as part of a combat trial in May 2025, possibly targeting Russian forces in occupied Crimea. According to a Russian source, a Russian air force Mikoyan MiG-31 fighter shot down an unidentified cruise missile, potentially over the Black Sea, on May 1.

2. On Aug. 30, Ukrainian forces fired three Flamingos at a Russian intelligence outpost and hovercraft base in Crimea. Two reached the target area. One narrowly missed and the other scored a hit on the outpost’s biggest building.

3. On Sept. 23, four Flamingos targeted a factory in Belgorod in western Russia. One hit, destroying a production hall. A Russian Pantsir air-defense system shot down at least one of the missiles.

4. The fourth combat use of the Flaming took place on the evening of November 13th. The target was the Orel Power Plant. One missile was fired, which was supposedly shot down by the Russian air defense system.

And that’s it: nine missiles in four raids over six months, resulting in two damaging hits. Maybe the Flamingo is a truly viable weapon like Fire Point’s one-way attack drones are. But if so, there isn’t yet a lot of proof.

Thanks for reading Trench Art! This post is public, so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, December 2, 2025 7:54 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
It’s simple, purportedly inexpensive at half a million dollars and—owing to its many off-the-shelf components—mass-producible on a tight timeline.

One "inexpensive" bomb.

Costs roughly twice my lifetime income so far.

Would be enough money for me to live off of just the interest for the rest of my life.

This world is so fucked up.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Tuesday, December 2, 2025 7:58 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

“Whole family fell from third floor”: Strike on Flamingo missile company employee signals Russia is hunting Ukraine’s defense innovators at their homes

Employee is dead. His family is in critical condition.

by Olena Mukhina | Dec 01, 2025

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/01/targeted-cluster-munition-strik
e-on-flamingo-missile-company-employee-signals-russia-is-hunting-ukraines-defense-innovators-at-their-homes/

Moscow's strike on Kyiv Oblast on the night of 30 November killed an employee of Fire Point in his home, a Ukrainian defense technology company, according to its chief designer and co-founder, Denys Shtilerman.

The strike on a missile systems specialist’s home is likely a signal to other defense sector employees to demoralize them.

Fire Point manufactures the long-range FP-1 UAV and the FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missile for precision strikes against deep targets in occupied territories. Ukraine used such drones to hit the base of Russian invaders, belonging to the most elite and secretive drone Rubikon center in Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast in 2025.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, December 2, 2025 8:04 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Study reveals Europe’s real choice on Ukraine: $972 billion for victory, or $1.8 trillion when Russia comes for Baltics

Abandoning Ukraine will cost twice as much as saving it.

By Olena Mukhina | Dec 01, 2025

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/01/study-reveals-europes-real-choi
ce-on-ukraine-972-billion-for-victory-or-1-8-trillion-when-russia-comes-for-baltics/

The report directly states that in the event of a Russian victory, millions of Ukrainian refugees would “flood into Europe,” increasing pressure on EU member state budgets.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, December 2, 2025 8:19 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

European Central Bank refuses to fund Ukraine loan using €140bn in Russian assets – FT

By Ivanna Kostina, Stanislav Pohorilov | 2 December, 10:31

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/12/02/8009921/

ECB concluded the European Commission's proposal would breach its mandate. Officials approached the bank to act as a lender for Euroclear Bank to prevent a liquidity crisis in Ukraine. The ECB deemed this impossible . . .

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, December 2, 2025 8:54 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Study reveals Europe’s real choice on Ukraine: $972 billion for victory, or $1.8 trillion when Russia comes for Baltics
Abandoning Ukraine will cost twice as much as saving it.
By Olena Mukhina | Dec 01, 2025

Because ...

WMD! East, west, north, south, somewhat of Baghdad!

Oh, wait.

Not ginning THAT war? Another one, you say?

/snicker

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
European Central Bank refuses to fund Ukraine loan using €140bn in Russian assets – FT
By Ivanna Kostina, Stanislav Pohorilov | 2 December, 10:31

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/12/02/8009921/

Russia's national assets aren't in the ECB, they're in Euroclear. How the EC imagines it can legally commandeer another bank's assets is beyond me.

I struggle to understand why the European political class keeps lusting for this war. Either it's a case of mass delusion, or they're hoping to keep the payday going. It's mighty suspicious that the current crop of EU leaders wants to shut down the corruption investigation. So far only $100 million has been ID'd as siphoned off. One hears that following the money leads to USA MIC and some warhawk Senators. I wonder what would turn up if someone looked into all $140+ billion?

Imagine if the FBI traced some of that money to Lindsay "Graham Cracker" and Mitch "Yurtle" McConnell. What leverage THAT would be.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Tuesday, December 2, 2025 10:30 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Frontline report: Russian officers privately admit war has reached ‘strategic deadlock’ maintained only by Putin’s stubbornness

Dec 02, 2025

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/02/frontline-report-2025-11-30/

Today, there is interesting news from the Russian Federation.

Here, the Russian political leadership is claiming confidently that Russia will continue the war until it achieves all the goals it has set out at the start of the war.

However, the latest poll results shocked them, because as it turns out, the Russian population has had enough of the so-called special military operation and wants the war to end now.

Recently, an internal survey prepared for regional Russian administrations ahead of the 2026 elections shows 83% of Russians feel fatigued from the war, and 56% want it to end right away, a sharp rise from the previous year. Support for continuing hostilities has fallen to around 23 percent, even as the Kremlin insists publicly that national unity remains strong.

Kremlin messaging diverges sharply from public sentiment

The gap between state messaging and private sentiment has never been wider, as Putin still expects his forces to capture all of the Donetsk region and has set deadlines by February 2026, while his foreign-policy aides continue repeating maximalist demands.

Foreign Minister Lavrov claims demilitarization and denazification remain non-negotiable, while spokesperson Peskov says Russia wants the war to end, but only once its original objectives are achieved.

The new data is a shock, not because Russians suddenly oppose the war, but because the scale of fatigue is impossible to hide even from those in power.

Economic pressure and Ukrainian strikes fuel discontent

The direct reasons named for this are that the Russians have endured hundreds of thousands of casualties, rising inflation, collapsing wages, and a permanent war economy that diverts nearly all resources toward the military.

New taxes are imposed almost monthly to fill budget gaps, with the last one raising Russia's value-added tax from 20% to 22% next year. Ukrainian deep strikes break through Russian air defenses every night, hitting refineries, power plants, ports, and ammunition depots, eroding the public confidence further.

Many citizens now feel that the Kremlin has imported the war back into Russia itself, despite continual assurances that everything is under control. For the first time since the invasion, Ukrainians are hitting strategic sites far behind the front line, and Russians notice.

The number of people who say their living standards have deteriorated is the highest since 2022. In October 2025, for every Russian who reported even a slight improvement in their finances, three said their situation had worsened.

Senior officers privately acknowledge strategic deadlock

Shockingly, the sentiment is changing even within the military, as communications among dozens of senior Russian officers reveal what many suspected: a growing belief that the war has reached a political and strategic deadlock, maintained only by Putin's personal stubbornness.

This does not signal imminent collapse, nor does it mean generals are preparing to challenge his power. Many are indifferent, and if the war ends, they will adapt.

If it continues, they will send more men forward while falsifying reports and exaggerating successes, but beneath that cynicism lies a recognition that the conflict cannot be won in the form Putin demands.

Some high-ranking officers quietly admit they would prefer the war to stop, simply to avoid wasting more soldiers' lives, yet none will directly challenge a system that rewards their obedience and punishes honesty.

Military analysts question whether objectives are achievable

Several prominent Russian military analysts have also begun to push for the peace settlement because they understood that Russia cannot achieve the objectives it set at the start of the invasion, as the army has lost too many men to sustain the current pace for the several more years needed to conquer the remaining territories.

Despite recent claims of rapid advances, progress is fast only compared to the crawling pace of the last 3 and a half years.

An army that once marched with new tanks and modern infantry fighting vehicles now advances with motorcycles, improvised Frankenstein trucks, civilian cars stripped of doors, and small infantry squads used as expendables.

As Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte put it, Putin is running out of money, ideas, and soldiers, and hundreds of thousands of Russians are dying for his reckless aggression.

War fatigue creates widening rift between society and leadership

Overall, a widening rift separates Russian society from its leadership, and the military is no longer immune to this split. After nearly four years of war, Russian forces lose over a thousand men a day, and replacing them has become increasingly complex.

Putin accepts this attritional pace because he views time as his ally, but even his generals concede that Russia's human reservoir is not infinite.

The latest poll shows the consequences clearly: those wanting to continue the war are in the minority, compared to those tired of it and those wanting an immediate truce; an alarming trend for Putin, who is still determined to achieve his goals in Ukraine.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, December 2, 2025 2:52 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Germany Embraced Pacifism—Now It’s Arming Itself Again to fight Russia

December 1, 2025

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/01/german-militarism-europea
n-security/684951/

The faltering of American support couldn’t come at a worse time. The German officials I met, a sober group of military planners, spend their days watching Moscow’s troop mobilizations, trying to determine if Vladimir Putin will order an attack on a NATO country by the end of the decade and whether the American president would, in such a case, come to Europe’s defense. “You not only have an enemy knocking at the door,” Freuding said, “but you also are in the process of losing a true ally and friend.”

So Germany has recognized that it needs to rearm. It’s spending billions on weapons and repurposing civilian industries for arms production. It’s even debating whether to reintroduce conscription. The government has promised to transform the army into the strongest in Europe. For the first time since the Second World War, Germany is permanently stationing troops beyond its borders.

Not long ago, these plans would have set off international alarms. But as the United States upends the global order it created, Germany may have no other choice.

Boris Pistorius, the German defense minister, couldn’t believe what J. D. Vance was saying. On the main stage of the Munich Security Conference last February, the vice president was attacking America’s NATO partners, comparing European democracies to authoritarian regimes and accusing Europe’s leaders of stifling free speech and suppressing support for far-right parties. The targets of his criticism sat before him: the presidents of the European Commission and the European Council; heads of government from countries including Germany, Sweden, Ireland, and Latvia. A stunned silence fell over the grand hall of the Hotel Bayerischer Hof.

The annual security conference is traditionally a chummy event, sometimes described as a “transatlantic family meeting.” It’s not always harmonious; in 2003, Germany aired doubts about American plans for the war in Iraq. But criticism of the host country is considered uncouth. And in recent years, the meeting in Munich has represented a show of Western solidarity with Ukraine. But Vance used the conference as a platform for MAGA grievances. “The threat that I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia; it’s not China,” he said. “What I worry about is the threat from within.”

Pistorius couldn’t let the vice president’s comments pass without rebuke. “That is unacceptable,” he shouted in English from the second row. Vance continued, unfazed. Later, at the lectern, Pistorius declared that he must “explicitly contradict and oppose” Vance’s claims before turning to the focus of the conference: European and international security. Because the White House was pressing for a quick settlement to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and signaling that Europe would have to enforce the terms, Pistorius warned, “The choices we make now will determine whether we live in peace or in crisis.”

Pistorius has a restless air about him; his gait is hurried, his gestures emphatic. When I met with him at the Bendlerblock, he told me he’d never imagined that he would lead his country’s rearmament. His father was a pacifist who didn’t allow toy guns in the house. During the Cold War, Pistorius joined the Social Democratic Party, which had made Ostpolitik, aimed at easing relations with Moscow, the center of its foreign policy. “America is indispensable,” went the credo, but “Russia is immovable.” But after the Iron Curtain fell, Pistorius recalled, Germans thought they were living in a world without threats.

After Russia’s annexation of Crimea, in 2014, Germany agreed to work toward spending 2 percent of its economic output on defense within a decade. But its progress was slow in the years that followed, and Donald Trump complained in his first term that Germany and other NATO members weren’t paying their share. German soldiers told me it was common then for members of the officer corps to purchase their own gear: boots, pants, field jackets.

Then, in 2022, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At the outset of the war, Europe’s largest since World War II, Germany’s army chief admitted in a public post that the forces under his command were “more or less bare.” The German government declared a Zeitenwende, or “turning of the times.” It promised a burst of cash for the Bundeswehr—the armed forces—that would finally bring the country, which has Europe’s biggest economy, in line with NATO targets. A second shock came not long after the Munich Security Conference, when German officials watched in disbelief as Trump, in a televised Oval Office meeting, reprimanded Volodymyr Zelensky for refusing peace on terms dictated by the White House. Freuding said that he had never sent as many texts in a single night as he did on that occasion, to his friends and colleagues in Ukraine.

For Friedrich Merz, then the chancellor-in-waiting, the confrontation made clear that Europe could no longer rely on the United States. A senior German official who spoke on the condition of anonymity told me that Merz, a member of the center-right Christian Democratic Union, is haunted by the question “Will America serve its allies to the dogs?” After the spectacle in the Oval Office, he became convinced of the need to amend Germany’s constitution to authorize unlimited government borrowing for defense. Within a month, the Bundestag approved the reform.

According to Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank, effective European deterrence—averting a Russian invasion of the Baltics, for example—would require 1,400 tanks and 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles, more than the combined capabilities of Germany, France, Britain, and Italy. Although all four countries are spending more on their armed forces to close the gap, no other Western European country matches Germany, which will devote more than 460 billion euros, or $538 billion, to the Bundeswehr over the next four years.

But in Görlitz, the shift to weapons manufacturing has run up against the growing power of political extremes. The far-right Alternative for Germany is the largest opposition bloc in the Bundestag, controlling nearly a quarter of the seats. The party’s base of support is in the former Communist East, where economic hardship fuels nostalgia for the world before German reunification, and sympathy for Moscow endures. The AfD’s national co-leader Tino Chrupalla, who represents Görlitz in the Bundestag, is scornful of the need to deter Russia. In 2023, he wore a tie with the Russian tricolor to an event at the Russian embassy in Berlin. And in a recent interview with a German broadcaster, he asked, “Do we really believe that we can defeat the world’s greatest nuclear power and win this war that isn’t even ours?” Sebastian Wippel, the AfD candidate who narrowly lost Görlitz’s mayoral race in 2019, told me that weapons made in the city must be used only to defend Germany, not to arm Ukraine. Deterrence, he said, can’t mean “threatening Russia.”

Some on the left are also skeptical of rearmament. Environmental and social activists protested in the spring against the planned assembly of weapons in Görlitz. NEVER AGAIN WAR! reads graffiti on a factory wall. Outside the plant that will soon manufacture tanks, I met an expert in the technical preparation of train parts who has worked in the rail industry for 16 years. He told me he would transfer to a factory in a nearby city to avoid making weaponry. “I want no part in it,” he said.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, December 2, 2025 4:31 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Germany Embraced Pacifism—Now It’s Arming Itself Again to fight Russia

December 1, 2025

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/01/german-militarism-europea
n-security/684951/

Saddam! WMD! East, west, north, south somewhat of Baghdad!

Oh, wait ... wrong hysteria.

Cue RUSSIA!RUSSIA!RUSSIA!

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Tuesday, December 2, 2025 6:04 PM

THG

Keep it real please

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Germany Embraced Pacifism—Now It’s Arming Itself Again to fight Russia

December 1, 2025

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/01/german-militarism-europea
n-security/684951/

Saddam! WMD! East, west, north, south somewhat of Baghdad!

Oh, wait ... wrong hysteria.

Cue RUSSIA!RUSSIA!RUSSIA!

Comrade, your buddy is talking about killing himself. He created a thread where he is talking about it in community.

T

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Tuesday, December 2, 2025 7:27 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Germany Embraced Pacifism—Now It’s Arming Itself Again to fight Russia
December 1, 2025
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/01/german-militarism-europea
n-security/684951/

SIGNY:
Saddam! WMD! East, west, north, south somewhat of Baghdad!
Oh, wait ... wrong hysteria.
Cue RUSSIA!RUSSIA!RUSSIA!

THGR:
Comrade, your buddy is talking about killing himself. He created a thread where he is talking about it in community.

Yeah thanks for being a jackass. If SIX commits suicide I hope you and SECOND get sued into oblivion.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Tuesday, December 2, 2025 8:51 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Ukrainian drones are killing Ukrainian soldiers who are approaching Russian troops with their hands up.
Trump (supposedly) ends intelligence sharing and weapons assistance.
Dibropillia, on a main supply road to Huliaipola, has been taken.
Huliaipola enyered from the south and pinched grom.the north
Vovchansk fully controlled
Konstantinovka approx 30% occupied in the south and being cut off from the north.

Quote:
Putin Says 'Ready For War' Against Europe If Attacks On Russian Tankers, Energy Continue

...

Russia is not planning to fight European countries, but if Europe starts a war, Russia is "ready right now" - the Russian leader said.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Wednesday, December 3, 2025 6:57 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Yeah thanks for being a jackass. If SIX commits suicide I hope you and SECOND get sued into oblivion.

Nobody will make the effort to sue because there is no loss to them when 6ixStringJoker is dead and there was no gain for him being alive.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, December 3, 2025 6:58 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Where is Ukraine’s front line? The answer is getting harder, and more political

By Francis Farrell | December 2, 2025 6:29 PM

https://kyivindependent.com/the-blurred-front-line-of-ukraines-drone-d
ominated-battlefield-is-making-mapping-harder-and-more-political/

. . . in a response seen to be typical of Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi's leadership, Ukraine has deployed units of its controversial new Assault Forces to counterattack.

In Pokrovsk, in an operation that blatantly prioritized narrative over military logic, soldiers of the 425th Assault Regiment drove into the city's gray zone to plant a Ukrainian flag on the council building on Nov. 6.

These were not the first such operations: over summer and autumn, several villages were claimed "liberated" or "cleared" by Kyiv thanks to the assault regiments, when in reality, little to no territory was firmly regained.

"There were moments when it was clear that we were not responding (to the General Staff's announcement), and this is testament to our objectivity," said Pohorilyi.

"The flag was raised in the gray zone, and the next day the Muscovites carried out assault operations."

As the situation deteriorated further around Huliapole over November, the dissonance between the maps' updates and the official reports from Assault Forces commander Valentyn Manko about villages being cleared and liberated reached absurd levels.

Finally, in a rare admission on Nov. 11, military spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn reported that Ukrainian forces had had to withdraw from five unspecified villages in the area.

"One of the biggest problems with these kinds of statements is that they seem to be intentionally vague," Kastehelmi said.

"They (the General Staff) may not show maps of these developments, and it also helps them to avoid critical questions in the current information space."

Ultimately, as the front-line situation remains precarious and dynamic for Kyiv, the active role played by mapping projects, particularly DeepState, in bringing objective ground truth to the world is here to stay.

"On the one hand, it's great that we have this opportunity, trust, reputation, and that we were able to prevent all this, to draw attention to it," Pohorilyi said.

"On the other hand, it is nonsense when projects like ours are needed to talk about these problems and prevent catastrophic consequences in this way."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, December 3, 2025 7:15 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Two Pieces of the Puzzle

Understanding the Trump Con on Ukraine and Europe

Phillips P. OBrien

Dec 03, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/two-pieces-of-the-puzzle

With the reporting of the last two weeks, I hope it is clear that the Trump administration has been playing a con game in its periodic pivots to look like they were going to support Ukraine and hammer Russia. Indeed, the details of just how determined the Trump administration is to cut a deal with Russia (and make lots of money) has become clearer. Business negotiations have been ongoing for months, according to the Wall Street Journal, as Trump and Putin have been discussing through intermediaries, the best way to mutually benefit from the relationship.

Protecting Russian Assets So They Can Be Returned To Russia

The original 28-point plan agreed between the US and Russian governments, also made it clear how keen the US side was, at least, to get back to business with Russia. And that reveals one are that I did not credit enough for being key in the con—protecting the approximately $300 billion of seized Russian assets from being used by European states to aid Ukraine.

There has been a discussion for years about whether Europe should use seized Russian assets to help Ukraine. These funds would be invaluable to help Ukraine fight and then help Ukraine rebuild after the war. The US has always been ambivalent about this. However in January 2025, as the Biden Administration was preparing to leave, President Biden came out and said Russian assets should be given to Ukraine.

Making sure that this did not happen has been a huge priority of the Trump Administration and thus a huge part of the con. In Feb-March 2025, when the Trump administration came down like a ton of bricks on Ukraine, they seemed to help energize European leaders to push for Russian assets to be used for Ukraine.

It helps explain why the Trump administration publicly pivoted and tried to give Europeans hope that they could help Ukraine (and remain committed to Europe). The more European leaders believed this, the less likely they would be to do anything the US Government did not want with Russian assets.

As a Politico Europe story yesterday makes clear, the Trump administration has been putting heavy pressure on European states for months to return Russian seized assets to Russia after any deal, and in the meantime not to use them to help Ukraine. Here is a story on what the US has been doing.

The United States has called for the return of Russian assets frozen in European Union countries to Moscow after the conclusion of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, Politico reports.

According to the agency, when EU Special Representative for Sanctions David O’Sullivan visited Washington in the summer, US officials made it clear that their position was to return these assets to Russia after the conclusion of any peace agreement.

So it turns out the US has been pressuring Europe to protect Russian assets to make sure they go back to Russia, even while pretending for months to be pivoting to Ukraine and wanting to hammer Putin. And it has worked well until now. Moreover, the Belgian PM seems happy to go along with the Trump administration and make sure those assets do not go to Ukraine.

I should have understood the central role of protecting Russian assets in Trump administration thinking. As always, follow the money.

Trump Has Always Accepted The Russian Narrative That Russia Will Win
(more at https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/two-pieces-of-the-puzzle )

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, December 3, 2025 8:06 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Fog Can Blind FPV Drones & Jamming Can Ground Them. But A.I. Drones Fly Right Thru Both.

New algorithms wave aside the obscurants that make Russian mechanized assaults possible.

Dec 02, 2025

https://www.trenchart.us/p/fog-can-blind-fpv-drones-and-jamming

For six months between late 2024 and early 2025, Slovak volunteer Jakub Jajcay served with a Ukrainian first-person-view drone team fighting in eastern Ukraine. “When I joined the team, I was excited to work with a cutting-edge tool,” Jajcay wrote in a controversial piece for War On The Rocks. “By the end of my deployment, I was a bit disillusioned,” he added.
https://warontherocks.com/2025/06/i-fought-in-ukraine-and-heres-why-fp
v-drones-kind-of-suck/

Among other flaws, FPV drones are “highly susceptible to electronic-warfare jamming,” Jajcay wrote. Moreover, “wind, rain, snow and fog all mean a drone cannot fly.”

Cannot fly is an overstatement, but Jajcay is correct that fog, which is common in Ukraine in winter, can effectively blind an FPV unless other capabilities—ground robots or radio eavesdropping—steer the drone to within 50 feet or so a target. Close enough for the operator to make out the shape of a vehicle.

Well, most drones. New FPVs with A.I.-assisted targeting don’t need a lot of help. As the newly formed drone battalion assigned to the Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps dramatically demonstrated recently, A.I. drones can pick out the shapes of vehicles in conditions of poor visibility.

In addition to helping I.D. targets through obscurants, an A.I. can steer an FPV even when jamming or other interference severs the radio link between drone and operator. “Without the additional guidance, we simply could not hit [a target],” a drone operator with the Ukrainian 58th Separate Rifle Brigade told Reuters. “Absolutely no way.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukrainian-drone-pil
ots-look-ai-battlefield-edge-2025-11-29/

On or just before Tuesday, the Azov drone battalion struck a Russian mechanized group from the 8th and 51st Combined Arms attacking “near Dobropillya,” according to the corps. The presence of a “rare” MTU-72 armored bridgelayer among the Russian vehicles implies the assault group was making yet another attempt to cross the Kazenyi Torets River in order to encircle Ukrainian troops still fighting for the town of Myrnohrad farther south.

The winter fog wasn’t as dense as in previous days, so the Russian column made its own fog—smoke, actually, produced when crews pour fuel directly into their vehicles’ exhausts. The smoke may have obscured the column from detection by traditional FPVs that are directly controlled by remote human pilots throughout their flights.

The Azov drones weren’t traditional drones—and the smoke didn’t work. An algorithm looked for the vague blocky shapes of vehicles across the hazy landscape. Human operators chose from among the possible targets. The A.I. guided the drones in.

The Azov corps reveled in the kills. “The battalion’s fighters are actively involved in the destruction of everything enemy in the Dobropillya direction.”

With its nimbler drone industry, Ukraine may have the A.I. edge for now. But A.I. FPVs are proliferating on both sides of the Russia’s 45-month wider war on Ukraine. Conditions favor Ukraine’s A.I. FPVs, however, as Russia is on the offensive—and counting on fog and smoke to hide its assault groups.

If there’s a downside to this new technology, it’s the cost. A standard FPV costs just a few hundred dollars. An A.I. following chip alone can cost twice that.

But even if an A.I. FPV costs $1,000, it’s worth it.

Thanks for reading Trench Art! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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