Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Thursday, July 9, 2026 20:31
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Thursday, July 9, 2026 6:24 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Ukrainian forces are intensifying strikes against Russian fuel tankers as Russia increasingly relies on seaborne transportation of gasoline to occupied Crimea from Russia.

Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk reported on July 8 that Russia has shifted to using fuel tankers to transport fuel between Russia and occupied Ukraine, particularly from occupied Mariupol and Berdyansk ports via the Sea of Azov, to address gasoline shortages in occupied Crimea, as Ukrainian strikes are denying Russia the use of the M-14 Rostov-Crimea highway.[4]

Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi reported on July 8 that Ukrainian forces struck nine Russian fuel tankers in the Azov Sea overnight on July 7 to 8, and that Ukrainian forces struck 19 Russian fuel tankers, a cargo ship, and a ferry over the past 72 hours.[5]

The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) reported on July 8 that a Ukrainian Sea Baby naval drone struck the Suezmax-class Russian shadow fleet tanker Blue off the coast of occupied Yalta (roughly 263 kilometers from the frontline).[6]

The SBU noted that Russia previously used the Blue tanker to transport significant volumes of oil and petroleum products to circumvent international sanctions. Ukrainian forces struck eight Russian shadow fleet tankers, including Venera-3, Sanar-1, Sanar-17, Klimena, Teti, Alexei Savrasov, Ivan Cheremisinov, and Penelopa tankers on the night of July 6 to 7 in an effort to inhibit Russian gasoline transports to occupied Crimea.[7]

Ukraine’s continuous intermediate- and long-range strike campaign against Russian land transportation routes is degrading the logistics routes between Russia and occupied Crimea, forcing occupied Crimea to rely on seaborne fuel supplies to address fuel shortages.[8]

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-july-8-2026/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 6:26 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russia has found way to jam Starlink and take down Ukraine’s drones

Russia has deployed 10 electronic warfare systems to jam Ukrainian drone control via Starlink. Ukraine has destroyed two.

By Olena Mukhina | July 8, 2026

https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/07/08/russia-has-found-way-to-jam-sta
rlink-and-take-down-ukraines-drones/

Russia has deployed 10 Starlink jammers on the front to counter Ukrainian drone strikes. Ukrainian drone commanders and pilots from the 422nd Unmanned Systems Regiment operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast told Reuters that Russian forces are using powerful electronic warfare systems to disrupt SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet, which most Ukrainian strike drones use for guidance. Few such systems have been destroyed already.

The jamming systems are the Volna Kupol Garant (Wave Dome Guarantor), a Russian-made complex that can suppress Starlink signals over a 20-square-kilometer area, according to Ukrainian Defense Ministry adviser Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov.

Ukraine's Defense Forces identified the system and its specifications in mid-June, when the Security Service of Ukraine and the 422nd Regiment destroyed the first complex in a joint operation on 14 June.

Blocking Starlink for Russia

The Volna Kupol Garant is Russia's response to Ukraine's earlier counter-response to Russia's use of Starlink. Russia had been using illegally obtained Starlink terminals on its own strike drones, including drones that hit Ukrainian civilian targets.

In late January 2026, SpaceX, at Ukraine's request, blocked unauthorized Russian terminals. Beskrestnov called the result a "catastrophe" for Russian forces, and Russian command and control collapsed across the front. Russia is now trying to jam Ukraine's Starlink-guided drones.

Volna Kupol Garant is expensive and easy to hunt

The Volna Kupol Garant emits a signal in the same 14-14.5 GHz Starlink frequency band, targeting eight satellite channels simultaneously.

Because jamming Starlink requires massive power output, the system emits a strong electronic signature.

Each complex consists of six trailers with dish antennas that point toward overhead satellites. The report says Ukraine identified 10 systems on the front and destroyed two, with one destroyed within hours of detection.

"As soon as we struck this facility, our Starlink-equipped drones flew without problems," a 422nd Regiment crew commander with the callsign "Dyryhent" (Conductor) said.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 6:57 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Also, Ukraine wants to build Patriot missiles because the US is too slow in building them:

Oh yeah? I bet they do.

And I want a brand new genuine Ford F-150

And you want just one single person in the world to give a shit whether you live or die.

If wishes were horses, we'd never have a glue shortage.

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 9:18 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Ukraine May Get Patriot Missile Production License.
The Hard Part Is the 24-Month PAC-3 MSE Cycle

By Vlad Litnarovych | Updated Jul 09, 2026 13:34

https://united24media.com/world/ukraine-may-get-patriot-missile-produc
tion-license-the-hard-part-is-the-24-month-pac-3-mse-cycle-20606

Lockheed Martin’s PAC-3 MSE interceptor for the Patriot air defense system is one of the most advanced missiles in its class, and that directly shapes how long it takes to produce, Defense Express reported on July 9. https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/skilki_chasu_treba_na_virobnits
tvo_odnijeji_antibalistichnoji_raketi_do_patriot_i_z_chogo_vona_skladajetsja-23568.html

The reported approval in principle by the US administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles immediately raises the most important question for Ukraine: when could Ukrainian-made interceptors actually strengthen the Armed Forces?

According to Defense Express, even if all bureaucratic procedures, production line creation, training, and certification were accelerated as much as possible, the missile’s own production cycle would remain a major limiting factor.

For the PAC-3 MSE, that production cycle is known to take roughly 24 months. In other words, around two years can pass between placing an order and receiving completed missiles.

The long timeline is tied to the complexity of the missile itself and the scale of its supply chain. Around 400 companies are involved in producing materials, components, blocks, and assemblies for the PAC-3 MSE, which are then brought together at Lockheed Martin’s plant in Camden, Arkansas.

Defense Express notes that the PAC-3 MSE is a highly sophisticated interceptor designed for kinetic kills against ballistic targets at closing speeds measured in kilometers per second. Producing each of its key components is a difficult technological process with its own bottlenecks.

One example is the missile’s active radar seeker. It is produced by Boeing only at its facility in Huntsville, Alabama. The seeker is one of the most advanced in its class, using Ka-band AESA technology. Even with production expansion efforts, Boeing needs around seven years to triple output.

Another example is the Attitude Control Section, which includes small solid-fuel lateral control motors. Poland’s experience shows how difficult that element is to master: Wojskowe Zaklady Elektroniczne S.A. spent around seven years preparing to produce micro solid-fuel motors.

The missile’s control systems are no less complex. These include the Guidance Processor Unit, the Missile Radio Frequency Data Link, and the Inertial Measurement Unit. At present, their production is known to be handled only by Lockheed Martin.

The solid-fuel motor is produced by Aerojet Rocketdyne, which was acquired by L3Harris Technologies in 2023. This dual-pulse motor is another bottleneck in PAC-3 MSE production, partly because of solid-fuel shortages and the long cycle required for casting and curing the propellant.

Other missile components also add complexity, including control surfaces and steering mechanisms that must allow the interceptor to maneuver at speeds of around Mach 5.

Defense Express concludes that a production license would be a major strategic step for Ukraine, but it would not instantly solve the interceptor shortage. PAC-3 MSE production is limited not only by permission and factory capacity, but also by deep technological cycles that cannot be compressed overnight.

Zelenskyy said Europe must rapidly develop its own capacity to produce anti-ballistic air defense systems and interceptor missiles, speaking at the NATO Defense Industry Forum held alongside the Alliance’s summit in Ankara.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 10:44 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russia's answer to scholars who document the Holodomor — Soviet Moscow's starvation of the Ukrainian people — is simple: ban them. In January 2026, it barred Marta Baziuk, one of 16 Canadian scholars sanctioned for studying the Holodomor.

That did not stop her. Seventy-seven days later, Baziuk helped put online a course she had spent three years building — free, worldwide, on a famine Russia dismisses as "western propaganda."

The Holodomor killed at least 3.5 million Ukrainians in 1932–33, most scholars estimate, due to a famine Stalin's policies manufactured. The present-day Kremlin still calls it a hoax.

Russia’s actions today echo the Soviet actions at the time of the Holodomor. Ninety years on, Russia is reviving them in occupied Ukraine: in Oleshky, across the Dnipro from Kherson, UN monitors say civilians have been cut off from food.

The pattern is not lost on Ukraine's leaders. "If he could arrange another Holodomor for Ukraine, he would do it," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said of Vladimir Putin in 2023, hours after a Russian drone barrage on Holodomor Remembrance Day.

Baziuk, the Executive Director at the Holodomor Research and Education Consortium (HREC) at the University of Alberta, spoke to Euromaidan Press about building a permanent record of a famine Russia is still trying to erase — and why it could only be done now.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/07/06/holodomor-course-baziuk/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 11:08 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russian Lawmaker Says Half of Ukraine’s Population Must Be Killed to ‘Eliminate Nazism’

In brief: A Russian lawmaker said up to half of Ukraine's population should be exterminated to eradicate what he called "Nazism." The remarks mirror statements by senior Russian officials, including Medvedev and Putin, who have questioned Ukraine's right to exist and repeatedly invoked "denazification" to justify Russia's invasion.

By Julia Struck-Feshchenko | July 8, 2026, 1:37 pm

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/79834

. . . “If you don’t want to change your minds, you must either be expelled from Ukraine or destroyed,” he said.

Similar statements from Kremlin officials

Russia has long relied on the “Nazism” narrative to justify its invasion of Ukraine, going as far as listing the “denazification” of Ukraine as an official war goal.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly invoked the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany to justify Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, portraying Kyiv as a Nazi state in need of “denazification” – a claim widely rejected by independent experts, Ukraine, and its Western allies.

Other senior Kremlin officials have also used the claim to deny Ukraine’s right to exist as a sovereign nation.

In January 2024, former Russian President and current deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, denied Ukraine’s right to exist as an independent state and warned that continued resistance to Russia’s invasion would result in the destruction of the Ukrainian nation.

“The existence of Ukraine is fatally dangerous for Ukrainians... they will understand that life [with Russia] in a large common state, which they do not want very much now, is better than death. Their deaths and the deaths of their loved ones. And the sooner Ukrainians realize this, the better,” Medvedev wrote on Telegram.

Later that same month, Putin claimed that Ukraine “glorifies” Adolf Hitler’s SS units and vowed to “eradicate Nazism” while opening a memorial marking the 80th anniversary of the end of the siege of Leningrad.

“The regime in Kyiv glorifies Hitler’s accomplices, the SS,” Putin said, adding that Russia would “do everything possible to suppress and finally eradicate Nazism.” . . .

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 11:51 AM

THG

Is also JJ. Keep it real please, and use a VPN

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Video analysis of waves of Iranian missile strikes on Israel show Patriot PAC3 repeatedly missing missile after missile, with an estimated interception rate of about 3%. The analysis was done by Ted Postol (MIT, Stanford, Argonne).
It just so happens that Ted Postol is full of shit:

Dr. Postol has published video analyses of various conflicts, including conflicts in the Middle East. He has argued that video evidence shows interceptor missiles frequently failing to hit incoming ballistic missiles, resulting in very low interception rates.550

The Counter-Argument: Postol's methodologies, specifically his use of ground-level television and social media footage to gauge interception success, have been widely criticized by military analysts, industry experts, and government agencies. [/wuote}

Of course!
Do you think Raytheon and the Pentagon would agree thst their system is full
of shit?

I looked at the videos myself. I saw a crapton of missile warheads/ submunitions falling and only one interception.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

A 95%
The Patriot Air Defense System has a 95% intercept success rate with over 250 combat engagements, including the defense of Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in June 2025.

Comrade signym likes to make shit up. She Trump and Jack all do that.

T

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 2:05 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Heres one.

Here's another. Postol spends about 25 minutes explaining how the PAC-2 and PAC-3 work, how they aim at a target etc. But videos of incoming and defense missiles start at about 25 minutes.

----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 2:08 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Ukraine Lesson Taiwan Keeps Missing

It’s Not the Drones—It’s Everything Around Them

David Petraeus and Clara Kaluderovic

July 8, 2026

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/ukraine-lesson-taiwan-kee
ps-missing

The conflict in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, has provided extraordinary lessons about the future of war. The enormous impact of cheap, remotely piloted unmanned systems—on the ground, in the air, and at sea—cannot be overstated. But there is a danger that military strategists will look at the battlefield in Ukraine and see little more than a catalog of weapons to buy.

Although lessons about particular weapons systems are relevant, the more important lesson is about the ecosystem necessary for these new tools to be effective. Ukraine, for instance, has developed Sky Fortress, a network of 14,000 acoustic sensors that locate Russian drones by sound, even at low altitudes which radar cannot see, to provide a high-fidelity picture of incoming threats. It also has its own battle-management software systems that direct unmanned surveillance, as well as the Unmanned Services Force, an entirely new military service—alongside the army, navy, and air force—that is dedicated to drone warfare, with its own doctrine, leader development, procurement processes, and even recruiting and basic training. Perhaps most critically, the ecosystem in Ukraine also includes manufacturers that can produce enormous quantities of unmanned systems and constantly refine the software and hardware of those systems in response to developments on the battlefield.

The risk of missing this wider lesson is especially acute for Taiwan, which also faces the threat of invasion by a larger aggressor. Taiwan’s leaders and partners frequently say that the island is intently focused on understanding the nature of modern warfare, especially what is happening in Ukraine, in order to prepare for and thus deter Chinese aggression. But while Ukraine’s achievements are admired in Taiwan, that admiration has not yet produced the enormous, fundamental changes that enabled Ukraine’s success.

Indeed, it is not yet clear that Taiwan’s leaders fully understand the Ukraine lesson. Despite the current administration’s stated ambition to eventually field tens of thousands of aerial drones and well over a thousand uncrewed surface vessels, Taiwan’s legislature struck domestic drone production from the government’s special defense budget earlier this year. The opposition parties that control the legislature cited fiscal discipline as well as concerns about potential corruption in domestic procurement, but the move’s overall effect was to dramatically reduce new domestic procurement of unmanned systems and to cut funds set aside for joint development of such systems with the United States.

Even if Taiwan’s politicians can one day muster the funding for substantial quantities of drones, the island remains far from making the considerable institutional changes needed to ensure their effective employment. The gap between admiring Ukraine’s success and replicating it, in other words, is precisely the gap Taiwan has yet to close.

HOW UKRAINE REWROTE THE RULES

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine sank its own flagship (lest it be seized by Russia) and was left, in effect, without a navy. Yet within two years, Ukraine had driven the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol, sunk over one-third of Russia’s ships on the Black Sea, and forced the remainder of the fleet to tie up in a port as far from Ukraine as possible. Ukraine accomplished this not by acquiring traditional ships but by devising a means of contesting the sea without them: using aerial drones to find the Russian ships and maritime drones to sink them.

That experience—and Ukraine’s similar experiences with aerial and ground drones of various types, ranges, and capabilities—illustrates the most profound lesson of the war: that an overall architecture that links sensors with analysts, leaders, and shooters can enable remotely operated surveillance and weapons systems to work at scale. To build this architecture, Ukraine turned command and control into a software problem. Ukrainian software engineers and technologists, and the foreign volunteers supporting them, produced the Delta system, their own battle-management system, rather than purchasing one from elsewhere. Now run by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, the Delta system gathers data from sensors on the ground, at sea, and in the air and then distributes the resulting high-fidelity picture to Ukrainian military units. It is the connective tissue that allows a mass of cheap systems to be directed against a larger and far costlier array of traditional weapons.

Ukraine also overcame enormous manpower and economic disadvantages by adapting its defenses. When Russia started using relatively inexpensive Shahed drones against it, Ukraine knew it could not defend itself with costly missile interceptors. American-made Patriot interceptors, for instance, cost several million dollars; Shaheds cost less than $50,000. Ukraine reversed this ratio by developing interceptor drones that cost only a few thousand dollars apiece. The Shaheds thus went from being relatively cheap to being relatively expensive.

The particular figures matter less than the principle they illustrate: that the relative cost of each engagement is itself a strategic variable, and it may be turned to the defender’s advantage by invention and production rather than by purchase. One of Ukraine’s greatest advantages in its war with Russia has been the speed of its adaptation, which has been enabled by embedding engineers with the units they support and equip. Ukrainian manufacturers, meanwhile, have demonstrated extraordinary flexibility, often making software changes to systems every week or two and hardware changes every three or four weeks. (This year, Ukraine is expected to produce a staggering seven million missiles and drones.) The result is that improved designs are delivered to the field well before the enemy can adjust. Ukraine, in other words, has compressed into weeks a cycle that takes years in traditional procurement processes.

THE PROCUREMENT REFLEX

Taiwan, by contrast, has treated its defense as something to be supplied rather than constructed. For more than three decades—going back at least to its purchase of F-16 fighters in 1992—it has invested in traditional manned platforms that are guided by someone else’s military doctrine. This instinct is natural enough; such systems have anchored every modern force, and the United States, Taiwan’s guarantor and weapons provider for decades, has built its own forces around them. But this has left Taipei with an establishment that knows how to buy things and is fluent in U.S. doctrines, but that does not know how to develop systems and is unable to articulate its own beliefs about strategy.

The consequences are visible throughout Taiwan’s force, which still prioritizes the acquisition of expensive manned platforms. The same pared-down special budget that eliminated domestic drone production, for instance, preserved billions of dollars for purchases of U.S. weapons systems. Taiwan’s military has also not yet settled on a new doctrine for defense and deterrence that recognizes the contributions that unmanned systems could make. This has enormous downstream effects since the military’s organizational structures (such as a dedicated unmanned-systems service), training, leader education, procurement, personnel policies, and facilities won’t be updated to effectively field unmanned systems—or to train forces in their employment.

Ukraine overcame manpower and economic disadvantages by adapting its defenses.

Taiwan’s engineers, among the most capable in the world, also seem to be on the sidelines. The modern force must be able to contest the entire electromagnetic spectrum—from radio waves to infrared light—by building electronic-warfare capabilities, such as jamming and counterdrone defenses, while also preserving one’s own data links. But there are no signs that Taiwan’s engineers have been enlisted to confront this challenge. In Ukraine, Sky Fortress and the Delta system alike began as volunteer engineering projects that the military then adopted. Taiwan has produced no counterpart—no comparable channel through which its world-class commercial engineers contribute to defense solutions—and its drone manufacturers complain publicly that they don’t see clear demand from the government. If Taipei signaled that it understood the requirements of contemporary warfare, it would catalyze crucial changes in Taiwan’s formidable industrial base. Instead, at the very moment China is producing drones by the millions, Taiwan’s legislature withdrew the funding on which any serious scaling depends. Manufacturers cannot build mass for a customer that has not committed to buying their products, and foreign partners will take their collaboration only to markets that can demonstrate real demand.

Geography makes these deficiencies particularly worrisome. As an island, Taiwan is overly dependent on maritime imports that can be disrupted or blocked once fighting begins. Whatever Taiwan needs to have in a crisis, it must possess before the crisis begins. The island imports its energy and, at times, has held only weeks of reserves. It has also already seen maritime “accidents” sever the Internet cables that bind it to the world. Taiwan, in other words, cannot assume the luxury of choosing the war for which it prepares. Its readiness is a matter of organization and capacity, not merely of procurement.

TRANSLATION, NOT IMITATION

The lessons of Ukraine cannot, of course, be transferred to Taiwan unaltered. Ukraine contests terrain along a continuous front that is close to 1,000 miles long and has considerable depth to retreat, when needed. Taiwan, by contrast, would have to contest a strait and endure an aerial and missile campaign directed at a homeland that features no room for withdrawal. The task before Taipei is therefore not imitation but translation: the recasting of Ukrainian innovation for a theater more maritime and more exposed to the air.

Of the lessons from Ukraine, neutralizing the aggressor’s navy is at once the most readily applicable and the most in need of adaptation for Taiwan. Indeed, this is Taiwan’s greatest opportunity: a mass of distributed, expendable, unmanned maritime systems, on the surface and beneath it, cued by aerial drones overhead, that could be capable of denying an invasion fleet the freedom to operate. To be sure, the waters of the strait are not those of the Black Sea. Taiwan’s application would demand designs that are suited to a harsher sea and a challenging coastline, as well as the persistent surveillance required to direct such a force and production at a scale and price that would allow Taiwan to absorb considerable attrition.

Taiwan also requires a counterpart to Ukraine’s Delta system, conceived and sustained by Taiwanese hands, rather than licensed from abroad, and trained on data drawn from Taiwan’s own circumstances rather than Ukraine’s. What must be reproduced is not a specific system but the manner of its making: the close and continuous collaboration of operators, engineers, and analysts, as well as granting authority to those nearest the problem to constantly refine the solutions.

Taiwan’s potential adversary has drones, the largest conventional missile force in existence, and the world’s largest manufacturing capacity. For that reason, Taipei cannot rely on a modest stock of scarce and costly interceptors—although it will need substantial numbers of those for the missile threat. It must also field defenses that are affordable, layered, resilient, and abundant, and it must manufacture and accumulate them well in advance of any crisis. Such defenses would look much like Ukraine’s: dense networks of passive sensors to detect and track incoming systems; electronic warfare to jam and confuse them; interceptor drones of all types, produced locally and in volume, to destroy them; and the training pipelines and doctrine, continually updated, to knit these layers together.

TAIWAN’S CHOICE

Ukraine’s tempo of adaptation is the result of constant contact with a living and evolving enemy. Taiwan, rightly focused on deterrence, has no such instructor and cannot conjure one. What it can do is approximate the conditions—through exercises rigorous and unscripted enough to expose real issues, through the placement of its engineers with its operators rather than apart from them, and through the disciplined study of the Ukrainian experience.

Taiwan still has time to build the architecture that will deter Chinese aggression. It likely does not, however, have the time to purchase its way to safety, especially given the pace of deliveries from its major suppliers. (Only in April did Taipei receive the last of the 108 U.S. M1 tanks it ordered back in 2019.) The choice before Taipei, therefore—and, to a considerable degree, before those countries that have an interest in Taiwan’s ability to defend itself—is whether to persist in acquiring modest numbers of expensive but increasingly vulnerable manned platforms or to undertake the harder work of building expendable mass at home and the architecture to enable it. Other countries may assist in that task, but they cannot perform it. The deterrence posture of Taiwan is, in the end, Taiwan’s to sustain. And the principal lesson of the war in Ukraine is that a nation determined to survive must be willing to learn how to defend itself.

DAVID PETRAEUS served as Director of the CIA, Commander of Coalition Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Commander of the U.S. Central Command. He is now Chairman of the KKR Global Institute, a Partner at KKR, and the Kissinger Fellow at Yale’s Jackson School.

CLARA KALUDEROVIC is Co-Founder and CEO of Mental Help Global (MHG), an AI nonprofit working in Ukraine, and Co-Founder of ex2, a nonprofit that develops AI applications for defense and humanitarian operations. She is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 2:18 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Heres one.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

All you showed is that operators of the Patriot missiles hit the launch key but forgot to pick a target BEFORE launch.

"I thought the Patriot picked out its own target," says the guy who forgot how the weapon works because he is under too much stress, has never fired the weapon before, and wasn't paying attention in class.

"Nope," says the guy who has used the Patriot to successfully shoot down missiles. "You have to sort the friendly from the unfriendly by clicking on the screen. Otherwise, the Patriot keeps going to the stars until it is out of propellant, just exactly like a bullet fired at the sky."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 2:28 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Heres one.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
All you showed is that operators of the Patriot missiles hit the launch key but forgot to pick a target BEFORE launch.

"I thought the Patriot picked out its own target," says the guy who forgot how the weapon works because he is under too much stress, has never fired the weapon before, and wasn't paying attention in class.

"Nope," says the guy who has used the Patriot to successfully shoot down missiles. "You have to sort the friendly from the unfriendly by clicking on the screen. Otherwise, the Patriot keeps going to the stars until it is out of propellant, just exactly like a bullet fired at the sky."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Speaking of making shit up....

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 3:57 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Heres one.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
All you showed is that operators of the Patriot missiles hit the launch key but forgot to pick a target BEFORE launch.

"I thought the Patriot picked out its own target," says the guy who forgot how the weapon works because he is under too much stress, has never fired the weapon before, and wasn't paying attention in class.

"Nope," says the guy who has used the Patriot to successfully shoot down missiles. "You have to sort the friendly from the unfriendly by clicking on the screen. Otherwise, the Patriot keeps going to the stars until it is out of propellant, just exactly like a bullet fired at the sky."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Speaking of making shit up....

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

Well... One could say that about every single post that either of them have ever made on this website.

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 4:34 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Speaking of making shit up....

Signym, if Ukraine cannot shoot down Russian missiles, then it must surrender. That is what's happening in your fucked up head, Signym. But the Ukrainians actually can shoot down Russian missiles with Patriots, even if you, Signym, post a hundred videos of ignoramuses using machinery they do not comprehend and who cannot hit the broadside of a barn from inside the barn.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 4:35 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

How a street check in Lviv became a warning sign for Ukraine's mobilization system

By Tania Myronyshena | July 9, 2026 10:04 PM

https://kyivindependent.com/how-a-street-check-in-lviv-became-a-warnin
g-sign-for-ukraines-mobilization-system/

. . . A test for mobilization reform

Punishing those responsible is necessary but will not solve the deeper problem — the state also needs to overhaul a mobilization system that has eroded public trust and repeatedly put soldiers in confrontation with civilians, Honcharenko said.

Honcharenko said the government, led on defense policy by Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, is already working on a broader transformation of mobilization and service. One proposal he pointed to would remove military personnel from enforcement on the streets and leave such measures exclusively to the police.

"It would reduce direct clashes between civilians and the military. At the same time, police and National Guard personnel are better placed to handle cases involving physical resistance. They are trained to deal with such situations," Honcharenko said.

Trust in a system

The broader challenge is to rebuild trust in a system that has gone years without major reform.

"Changes in such a sensitive area are very difficult, but there is no alternative," Honcharenko said.

Honcharenko said the next phase of the ongoing army reform is expected to target TCCs and mobilization practices, followed eventually by changes to demobilization.

The key moment, he said, will come when soldiers and civilians see that long-serving troops are actually being released from service and that the state is keeping its promises.

"When people see the logic of the system and trust the state, they can calculate for themselves that perhaps it makes more sense to serve for 12 or 14 months, return, and receive a certain deferment than to hide, be found, and be mobilized for three or five years."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 5:09 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Speaking of making shit up....
Signym, if Ukraine cannot shoot down Russian missiles, then it must surrender. That is what's happening in your fucked up head, Signym. But the Ukrainians actually can shoot down Russian missiles with Patriots, even if you, Signym, post a hundred videos of ignoramuses using machinery they do not comprehend and who cannot hit the broadside of a barn from inside the barn.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Why. Do. You. Care?

Or I guess the real question is either, why do you believe that you care? and/or, why do you pretend that you care?

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 5:32 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Speaking of making shit up....
Signym, if Ukraine cannot shoot down Russian missiles, then it must surrender. That is what's happening in your fucked up head, Signym. But the Ukrainians actually can shoot down Russian missiles with Patriots, even if you, Signym, post a hundred videos of ignoramuses using machinery they do not comprehend and who cannot hit the broadside of a barn from inside the barn.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Why. Do. You. Care?

Or I guess the real question is either, why do you believe that you care? and/or, why do you pretend that you care?

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

Why should I care that Trump doesn't pay his taxes? As a matter of fact, all Trumptards whom I know detailed information about are also tax cheaters. They also get very upset when child support is deducted from their pay. What bothers me is that Trumptards as a class are dishonest, lazy, stupid, irresponsible, and undependable as employees, neighbors, relatives, and citizens. Despite being defective, Trumptards have an absurd belief in their superiority, an attitude which they are able to maintain by shifting blame for their personal failures onto others who are in no way at fault.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 5:33 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Why Putin’s nuclear threats aren’t working anymore

Ukraine is striking deep into Russia and pressuring Crimea. Does Putin have any “red lines” anymore?

By Joshua Keating | Jul 9, 2026, 6:15 AM CDT

https://www.vox.com/politics/494737/russian-ukraine-nuclear-putin

Key takeaways

• Ukraine is increasingly launching drone strikes deep into Russia and threatening Russian-annexed Crimea, both steps that many once feared would result in nuclear retaliation from Moscow.

• Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats aren’t as effective as they used to be, in part because it’s not clear what using a nuke would actually accomplish or whether it would be worth the risk.

• The question now is whether Russia really has any “red lines,” or if there’s still a point where Vladimir Putin could reach for the nuclear codes out of desperation.

When did Ukraine’s allies stop being scared of Russia’s nuclear weapons?

At this week’s summit in Turkey, NATO leaders strongly backed Ukraine’s growing campaign of strikes deep into Russian territory, primarily targeted at that country’s energy infrastructure, meant to bring the costs of war home to Russian citizens and compel their government to stop the invasion. On one night this week, Ukraine launched more than 400 drones into Russia.

There was a time, not so long ago, when the prospect of strikes inside the borders of the world’s biggest nuclear power would provoke warnings from the Kremlin about the catastrophic consequences of crossing Russia’s “red lines,” along with hand-wringing from the US about the prospect of nuclear escalation. The prospect of direct combat between two nuclear powers was the reason the US resisted international calls to impose a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine back in 2022; made the Biden administration reluctant to provide long-range capabilities like HIMARS rockets, ATACMs missiles, and F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine; and then, after finally providing them, restricted their use to Ukrainian territory.

But now, as one western official put it to the Financial Times, the sheer frequency of Russia’s past nuclear threats during the conflict have “devalued the currency.” Putin has been making notably fewer of these threats recently, even the attacks inside Russia have accelerated. Russia’s “red lines” are now being crossed with stunning regularity. Ukrainian drones regularly strike not just military or industrial targets but cities including Moscow.

And since last year, the US has not only gotten out of the way but has been providing intelligence to facilitate this campaign. In Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, a campaign targeting key bridges and rail links has led to food and fuel shortages. On the battlefield itself, the grinding offensive has been thrown into reverse; the Russians lost roughly 400 square miles of territory in April and May.

Russia has hardly given up, continuing to pound Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, with missiles and drones. But the fears of nuclear escalation seem to have notably diminished.

“We repeatedly oversell the risk of escalation,” said Maria Snegovaya, a prominent Russian political analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, at a panel discussion in Washington this week hosted by the Washington-based think tank the Quincy Institute. “During the Biden administration, many said that if Ukraine strikes deep into Russia’s territory, Russia will escalate,” Snegovaya said. “Ukraine now strikes into Siberia, over 2,500 kilometers deep into Russia, and we don’t see that escalation.”

But does that mean Russia’s leader was always bluffing, or, as a war he refuses to stop seems to turn against him, is there still a risk of Putin reaching for the launch codes out of desperation?

Why hasn’t Russia gone nuclear?

There are a few potential reasons why Russia hasn’t acted on its nuclear threats. For one, detonating a nuclear weapon so close to its borders carries risk of radioactive fallout reaching Russian territory. That’s an experience Russia knows better than most countries; parts of Western Russia are still struggling with elevated radiation levels decades after the Chernobyl meltdown in what was then Soviet Ukraine.

James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment, also notes that Ukraine and its allies have managed escalation via “salami slicing” — gradually taking more and more aggressive steps, none of which seemed sufficient on their own, to warrant a truly catastrophic response from Russia.

“If, in some hypothetical world, it would have been possible to give Ukraine on day one, everything we ended up giving them by the end of the Biden administration, that would have been really escalatory,” said Acton. The months of delay that seemed to precede every new weapons system and capability delivered to the Ukrainians understandably enraged Ukrainians — who have never taken Putin’s threats particularly seriously and have watched some of their own cities razed to the ground with conventional weapons — but it may have helped prevent a far more destructive conflict.

Then there’s the question of just what using nuclear weapons would accomplish. Much of the concern in Ukraine has focused on the possibility of Russia using so-called “tactical” nuclear weapons, smaller warheads meant to gain a military advantage on the battlefield rather than destroy an enemy city. But on Ukraine’s long, sparsely manned frontline, where much of the fighting is increasingly carried out by unmanned drones, there aren’t many obvious targets for a tactical nuke. A nuclear blast would do little beyond irradiating parts of the “new Russia” that Putin, after all, hopes to one day control.

As far back as 2023, the FT reported that, according to Russian officials, “Putin has already gamed out the possibility of using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and has come to the conclusion that even a limited strike would do nothing to benefit Russia.”

It remains possible to imagine a scenario where Russia uses nuclear weapons for strategic purposes, rather than tactical advantage. It could threaten to detonate a nuclear weapon, or actually detonate one, in a Ukrainian city, unless Kyiv agrees to cede the rest of the territory claimed by Russia. Some experts have long argued that Russia has an unofficial “escalate to de-escelate” strategy, under which it would use nuclear arms preemptively to force its enemies to back down.

But that would be an extraordinarily risky and unprecedented move — even for Putin, who has seemingly backed down from the nuclear ledge before. At one point, in the fall of 2022, when Ukrainian forces were on the move in southern Ukraine and had a chance to break through toward Russian-annexed Crimea, US intelligence agencies believed that the possibility of Russia using its nuclear weapons was as high as 50 percent. But the US, UK, and France all warned Russia during the 2022 crisis that they would respond with military force if Russia used a nuke. They made it clear the response would be limited to conventional weapons, but there’s no guarantee it would stay that way.

The messaging didn’t only come from Russia’s adversaries. Xi Jinping warned Putin that he would lose Chinese support if he used nuclear weapons — no small thing given Russia’s increasing economic reliance on China.

Does Russia still have a nuclear breaking point?

Not everyone believes we’re out of the woods, however. George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute, is concerned that Ukraine’s backers have become dangerously blasé about the risk of escalation. “It is profoundly threatening to Russian national security when the impression arises in the West that Russia actually has no red lines, it will never retaliate, no matter what,” he said at this week’s panel. “That’s an extraordinarily dangerous set of circumstances.”

He noted that Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, as well as early warning radars — both core elements of Russia’s nuclear deterrence — raise the risks of retaliation. And, while Russia has not responded to the attacks on Crimea with nuclear force, it’s significant that Ukraine is not actually currently threatening to retake control of the territory. Given the literally religious significance with which Putin has imbued the peninsula and how central it is to his political legitimacy, he might resort to desperate measures to keep it. Back in 2022, Elon Musk was so worried about Russian nuclear retaliation over Crimea that he cut Starlink internet access to Ukrainian forces in southern Ukraine.

Even if Putin himself rattles the nuclear saber less than he did early in the war, there are still voices in Russia calling for the nuclear option. In a recent essay, Sergey Karaganov, one of Russia’s most prominent and well-connected foreign policy analysts, wrote that “the use of nuclear weapons is a great sin. But the de facto refusal to use them is an unforgivable, deadly, and criminal sin, because it paves the way for the expansion and escalation of the world war unleashed by the West.” He called for starting with nuclear tests, followed by conventional strikes on military targets in Europe, followed by escalation to the “next level”. He concludes that “a nuclear war — God forbid — can be (easily) won, especially against a crowded and morally weak Europe.”

For the moment, Putin appears to believe that, despite the extraordinary cost in lives and rubles of the ongoing war, he will eventually grind Ukraine down through sheer manpower superiority. If he feels Russia’s situation is not actually that desperate, he may not feel it’s necessary to resort to desperate measures. For one thing, it’s not clear whether Putin is receiving accurate information about how things really look on the battlefield. But if the war started worsening to the point it could not be ignored, and the chaos within Russia itself reached a level where he believed his regime was under real threat, that could change.

Notably, however, even Beebe said he is less concerned in the short term about Russian nuclear weapons use than in conventional attacks on NATO territory. This type of escalation is increasingly a concern in the Baltic countries and Poland, and while not as grave a threat as nuclear war, wouldn’t certainly pose an unprecedented test for NATO.

Nuclear war: What is it good for?

Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright once nearly gave then-joint chiefs chairman Colin Powell an “aneurysm” by asking, “What’s the point of having this superb military you’re always talking about if we can’t use it?” Likewise, if it turns out that nuclear weapons are too risky for Russia to use even when its own capital is being attacked, one could ask: What’s the point of having the world’s largest nuclear arsenal?

“We’ve found out, by an absolutely terrible experiment, that nuclear weapons are pretty much unusable,” said Pavel Podvig, an expert on Russia’s nuclear forces at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research.

That’s not to say that nuclear weapons have been a non-factor in this war. They’re a big part of the reason why the US and other Western countries didn’t send their own troops in to help Ukraine, and a big part of the reason why Russia has held off on direct attacks against NATO countries. (Unattributable acts of sabotage and other “gray zone” tactics are another matter.)

But it’s still notable that the world is currently witnessing the first protracted, high-casualty, conventional war involving a nuclear power in decades – one in which nuclear threats have been very much in play since the beginning. And yet, that power seems unwilling or unable to use its weapons. Coming at a moment of heightened concern over nuclear proliferation, this could have implications far beyond this war for what role these weapons play in 21st century warfare and foreign policy.

For one thing, nuclear weapons may not be that much of a deterrent against conventional attacks, particularly those carried out by long-range missiles or drones. (Just ask nuclear-armed Israel or Pakistan, both of which have been repeatedly attacked.) It may also turn out that just being a nuclear power doesn’t automatically give you the ability to compel or coerce non-nuclear countries if they don’t believe you’re actually willing to use them. (Recall, also, President Donald Trump’s threats in April to destroy Iran’s “whole civilization,” which has not managed to keep Tehran in line.)

The good news is that wars fought under the nuclear shadow may still be less likely to escalate to the nuclear level than we feared. The bad news is that, without that fear, we may see more of those wars. As this war demonstrates, you don’t need nuclear weapons to kill hundreds of thousands of people.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 5:46 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Speaking of making shit up....
Signym, if Ukraine cannot shoot down Russian missiles, then it must surrender. That is what's happening in your fucked up head, Signym. But the Ukrainians actually can shoot down Russian missiles with Patriots, even if you, Signym, post a hundred videos of ignoramuses using machinery they do not comprehend and who cannot hit the broadside of a barn from inside the barn.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Why. Do. You. Care?

Or I guess the real question is either, why do you believe that you care? and/or, why do you pretend that you care?

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.
Why should I care that Trump doesn't pay his taxes?

Can you once, for just five fucking seconds do me the courtesy of pretending like you're a human being and just answer a fucking question?

Are you avoiding the question because you know you don't have any real answer to it?

Or maybe the answer lies in something much more sinister?

Jacks says... rubbing his palms together in malignant anticipation.

Maybe you won't face any real questions like this because you're not even aware that you've been programmed not to respond to them.

Your brain is cooked, brother.

There ain't no fixing you now.

You aren't human anymore. You are merely a golem.

I find that quite fascinating.

I never saw a golem made of shit before.

...

Yes. Yes... I do believe that is exactly what you are.

You're a Shit Golem.

It took almost a full decade, but I do believe you've just leveled up and finally earned yourself your new nickname, Second.

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 6:02 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Here you go, buddy... You've now been immortalized on the internet.

I make no copyright claim on this image. Feel completely free to use it in your signature to boldly and proudly show off your new identity to the world.

Be the real you.

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 7:12 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

I make no copyright claim on this image. Feel completely free to use it in your signature to boldly and proudly show off your new identity to the world.

Be the real you.

Don't worry about what they say, Buddy. Words won't bring us down. You're beautiful.

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 8:18 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Speaking of making shit up....
Signym, if Ukraine cannot shoot down Russian missiles, then it must surrender.

Comes the dawn!

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 8:24 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Speaking of making shit up....
Signym, if Ukraine cannot shoot down Russian missiles, then it must surrender.

Comes the dawn!

Another breakthrough! This deserves a Celebration!

Comes the Dawn. Not something that my Grams said, but something that I'm sure she would have said a lot if it was one of her Gramsisms she'd picked up over the years.

I can dig it.

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

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Thursday, July 9, 2026 8:31 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

“Why are we not using nuclear weapons, which our forebearers developed and stockpiled with the full might of the nation precisely for this purpose?” asked Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev in June. He’s not the only one who thinks the country should launch tactical nukes on Ukrainian forces.

Vladimir Putin’s government, before its February 2022 invasion, had been threatening to use its most destructive weapons in Ukraine. In early February of that year, Russia’s nuclear forces participated in an exercise widely interpreted at the time as a warning. Then, on February 24, the first day of the so-called “special military operation,” the Russian president spoke of “consequences that you have never experienced in your history.”

The threats intimidated the U.S. and its European partners. Since then, the ‘nuclear ace’ has appeared in Russian official and media rhetoric almost every month.

So is the Kremlin bluffing now?

More at Will Russia Nuke Ukraine? | Jul 09, 2026

https://www.newsweek.com/will-russia-nuke-ukraine-opinion-12165050

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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