REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

The predictions thread

POSTED BY: KPO
UPDATED: Friday, August 11, 2017 23:08
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Sunday, February 12, 2012 2:20 PM

KPO


Here's an idea I've had, a bit of an experiment and something I've wanted to do for a while.

The point of this thread is to be a public record of people's predictions. You can post your own, or other people's that you've read and found interesting, so that we can all see in months and years to come who turned out to be accurate in their predictions, and who didn't. It's a chance to stick your neck out, or stick other people's out for them if you think their comments come out of a deluded partisan bubble.

I have one rule, and that is that people post their predictions in red font. The idea of this is that the predictions will stand out and be easy to find and read, and then all discussion can happen around them. Besides that one rule I'll just make a general plea to posters to be faithful when quoting other people, and to keep flame wars to a minimum.

How to post in red font
It's quite easy, post in red font by putting the code font color=red inside triangle brackets like this: . That goes before the text you want to be red. To turn off font color use this code: /font color inside triangle brackets, to return to ordinary font.

Here's a couple of predictions I've read recently and found interesting, to get the ball rolling (I'm paraprashing, from memory):


Auraptor: "The GOP will beat Obama by double digits in November."
Storymark: "Mitt Romney will be the GOP's John Kerry."



The floor is open to predictions, comments, suggestions, whatever.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Sunday, February 12, 2012 2:23 PM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important


Hello,



I predict that as the election approaches, the opposition party will become more vehement and offensive, while the incumbent party will become more stringent in their defense of a president who has done little to recommend him.


--Anthony

_______________________________________________

"In every war, the state enacts a tax of freedom upon the citizenry. The unspoken promise is that the tax shall be revoked at war's end. Endless war holds no such promise. Hence, Eternal War is Eternal Slavery." --Admiral Robert J. Henner


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Sunday, February 12, 2012 2:30 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Hmmm, interesting. Needs thought. Like - since the US is giving Israel the semi-official look-away (hey, you don't NEED US approval for EVERYthing you do) and Israel is making noises like they're going to go nuclear on Iran, I could see how an attack by Israel on Iran could come out of the blue and really blow a lot of predictions out of the water. Or if the SFP on reactor 4 falls over and tons of radiologically hot fuel come close together uncooled, I could see how having an open-air uncontrolled, uncontained reactor could alter the course of history. So, if weird unpredictable shit like this happens what does that mean for our ordinary-course-of-events predictions? Do they count as a swing and a miss, or a ball?

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Sunday, February 12, 2012 3:02 PM

KPO


You can come back and defend your predictions in such circumstances, if you see a need to. Though I think reasonable people will automatically see and understand when big events have changed the course of history, and screwed up people's predictions.

Here's another prediction I heard today:

George Soros predicts that if the Republicans win the white house in 2012 they will undergo a 'miraculous transformation' and decide the economy needs more stimulus.



It's not personal. It's just war.

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Sunday, February 12, 2012 3:22 PM

BYTEMITE


The Chinese lower class will try to revolt. I think this will be within the next ten or twenty years. I am not sure if this revolution will be successful, but I do think this will destabilize that country.

This may possibly be China reacting to an American war in Iran or possibly Syria or Pakistant, due to anger among the working class about forced conscription.

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Sunday, February 12, 2012 3:30 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I second AntonyT's political prediction:

I predict that as the election approaches, the opposition party will become more vehement and offensive, while the incumbent party will become more stringent in their defense of a president who has done little to recommend him.


I have more but I'm in the middle of cooking.

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Sunday, February 12, 2012 7:52 PM

OONJERAH


Is a lighter shade of red ok? Spot of humor ok?


I predict that Gingrich, Paul, Romney & Santorum will be in a virtual dead heat before the Convention. The Republican party will drop them and nominate Arnold Schwarzenegger, pushing him as the governor who almost saved the California economy.

Air Force One will crash killing Obama on the same day that Biden suffers a heart attack with stroke. The Democrats will run Hillary Clinton.

Knowing that the neocon Republicans got us into this mess, very likely on purpose, and will continue to grind us down, I will vote Democratic no matter what.

Arnold will win by a substantial margin.

God will intervene to give Arnold the gifts of wisdom & humility. Arnold will tell Him to keep it, saying, "I've got this. You don't understand American politics anyway."

God will agree to Arnold's wishes; and I am not sacreligious enough to put words into His mouth as the Heavens close.



"All I suggest is a man hears what he wants to hear, and disregards the rest" ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, February 12, 2012 8:11 PM

RIONAEIRE

Beir bua agus beannacht


Prediction: People will realize way too late that Egypt and Libya are notably worse off now than they were before the "Arab Spring". I'm not saying they were well off before, but they are worse off now and our media won't tell us that so most Americans don't know and won't until it gets much worse.
:(

"A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya

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Monday, February 13, 2012 5:07 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:

Here's a couple of predictions I've read recently and found interesting, to get the ball rolling (I'm paraprashing, from memory):


Auraptor: "The GOP will beat Obama by double digits in November."
Storymark: "Mitt Romney will be the GOP's John Kerry."





Petty sure mine was more of a hope and wish, than a full out bet. If the world was as it should be, yeah, Obama would be sent packing by double digits, but we know different. A bit far out to be predicting a winner or the specifics of election results.

If could very well be that Mitt Romney is just the next moderate to lose. See Mccain. See Dole. I'm guessing Mitt didn't marry in to most of his money, like Kerry.


" I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend. "

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Monday, February 13, 2012 5:29 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


No, Mitt didn't marry into money. He was born into it.

I'm not into predictions. The best I can do is that Obama will win a second term, and that based on the Republican primary contest. Other than that, the world changes too fast these days to predict anything, in my opinion.



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Monday, February 13, 2012 10:01 AM

CAVETROLL


Interesting. I'll play.


No matter who is elected or which party is in power, not much is going to change.

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Monday, February 13, 2012 10:28 AM

BYTEMITE


That's a good one.

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Monday, February 13, 2012 10:34 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Quote:

Originally posted by CaveTroll:
Interesting. I'll play.


No matter who is elected or which party is in power, not much is going to change.



If that's the case, then we'll ALL be Greek soon.

Opa!


" I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend. "

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Monday, February 13, 2012 11:04 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


"If that's the case, then we'll ALL be Greek soon."

You have NO idea what comment I didn't post.

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Monday, February 13, 2012 11:10 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Oh, I'll second this as well.


No matter who is elected or which party is in power, not much is going to change.

So, what I was doing that made me put off posting here was making a stew - ground pork and bacon, cooked and drained, with cooked cabbage, onion, potato and mustard greens.


I predict that sadly, the Occupy movement will fade away into nothingness as it doesn't have the organizational power to withstand official suppression and media blackout.

I predict the US population will be so demoralized, and those who are not demoralized will be so deeply hoodwinked, that no matter how bad things get, people will just bow to their masters, as before.

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Monday, February 13, 2012 3:13 PM

FREMDFIRMA


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
You have NO idea what comment I didn't post.


Maybe he don't...

The bathhouse was a nice touch, really.


-F

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Monday, February 13, 2012 3:55 PM

KPO


Quote:

Petty sure mine was more of a hope and wish, than a full out bet.


Ok here's the full quote, from the 'Gingrich or Romney v. Obama' thread: http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.asp?b=18&t=50761


"Pretty sure either would beat Obama, by double digits." -- Auraptor


While I'm at it:


"Obama has all the money and tools to win again." -- Jongstraw



It's not personal. It's just war.

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Monday, February 13, 2012 4:08 PM

KPO


To be fair I'll post one of mine:


kpo on Rick Perry: "If I were a betting man I'd put money on him as next president."


Oops.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Monday, February 13, 2012 7:57 PM

RIONAEIRE

Beir bua agus beannacht


That reminds me we haven't seen Jongstraw in a while. You know who I really miss is Happy Trader, he disappeared a while ago. :(

"A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya

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Thursday, February 16, 2012 9:11 PM

OONJERAH



We won't be able to predict anything, because we have no idea what's going on now.



"All I suggest is a man hears what he wants to hear, and disregards the rest" ~Paul Simon

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Friday, February 17, 2012 8:22 AM

BYTEMITE


Eh, I actually think the goals of TPTB are very predictable.

Here's a more immediate prediction, It looks as though the earthquakes that have circulated around the ring of fire (and I think might have been touched off by the Haiti earthquake).

I predict that the west coast is going to get a big one, not just the little 5.0s that Vancouver and California has felt. It might touch off some earthquakes in the great basin region too.

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Friday, February 17, 2012 11:49 AM

OONJERAH



Yeah. That's what I thought as of the NZ quake. Should next hit in, east or west of, the Aleutians. Then
come south. I kinda thought CA would get a really big one before now. But don't worry about me;
I'm up in the Sierras.


"All I suggest is a man hears what he wants to hear, and disregards the rest" ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, February 19, 2012 7:36 PM

RIONAEIRE

Beir bua agus beannacht


I actually think earthquakes are pretty cool as long as no one dies. In my area we have one we can feel about once a decade, we're do, we had one when I was six, one when I was 15, so I'm ready for another. I dream about earthquakes a lot for some reason. Hopefully you don't get any Byte because as I recall the idea is most unpleasant to you. My mom hates 'em, they scare her too.

"A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya

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Sunday, February 19, 2012 8:03 PM

BYTEMITE


It's not so much I'm scared of earthquakes. Actually, that particular honor goes to tornados and heights (for very similar reasons).

The main problem is a big 7+ magnitude earthquake in Salt Lake City would be absolutely catastrophic. We're talking Katrina level bad.

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Monday, February 20, 2012 3:19 PM

RIONAEIRE

Beir bua agus beannacht


That's right, I forgot which natural disasters you didn't like, I know you are interested in earthquakes geologically, but I thought that in practice they were scary to you. I'm going to remember that its tornados, not earthquakes. I doubt that you guys get very many tornados though so that's a good thing. We got one in my state last year around this time, it was weird.

"A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya

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Monday, February 20, 2012 6:38 PM

OONJERAH



     I predict that this thread will be hijacked.


"All I suggest is a man hears what he wants to hear, and disregards the rest" ~Paul Simon

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Friday, February 24, 2012 8:16 AM

KPO


I'm going to go somewhat against Riona and predict: Egypt and Libya will be stable, functioning democracies within 5-10 years - but Iraq won't.

Also from the other day: Ron Paul predicts the draft is coming back

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Sunday, February 26, 2012 7:21 PM

RIONAEIRE

Beir bua agus beannacht


Within five to ten years yes hopefully, they say it gets worse before it gets better, but it does get better usually.

"A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya

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Sunday, February 26, 2012 8:02 PM

OONJERAH



I predict, It won't get better if we wait for it to get better.



Personal responsibility is the Truth.
Self determination triumphs over reaction.

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Monday, February 27, 2012 9:32 AM

KPO


Riona, I chose a 5-10 year timescale for my prediction not just because it makes it easier, but because I think that's the correct way to look at it - to weigh whether the revolutions have been positive or not. Judge it by the long term outcomes - as the entire futures of these countries have been changed.

Some more predictions from my recent conversations on this board:

Auraptor thinks that scientific opposition to AGW will increase.
Anthony thinks that an Islamic 'Reformation' is likely, and perhaps inevitable. kpo disagrees.


It's not personal. It's just war.

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Monday, February 27, 2012 9:42 AM

STORYMARK


Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:
I'm guessing Mitt didn't marry in to most of his money, like Kerry.



Nope, not married in. He got it the old fashioned way - from his Daddy.

Quote:

Petty sure mine was more of a hope and wish, than a full out bet.


Well done. You've already found your insulation, so that when your predictions don't come true, you can just backtrack and say they weren't predictions.

"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Thursday, March 1, 2012 12:56 AM

FREMDFIRMA



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Thursday, March 15, 2012 9:07 AM

KPO



Ezra Klein thinks Romney will be a stronger prospect in a general election than he is in the current Republican primary, and that a contest between him and Obama would be quite tight.

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Tuesday, March 20, 2012 8:10 AM

KPO



Auraptor predicts that Obama's health care reform will be ruled unconstitutional, or repealed after the November elections.

Barney Frank expects that Obama will be re-elected in November, barring any big jolts to the economy.


It's not personal. It's just war.

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Thursday, March 29, 2012 2:51 PM

KPO


Some more recent predictions:


It's clear to OPPYH that Obama will be re-elected

It's clear to Auraptor that Romney will beat Obama

Whozit scoffs at OPPYH's hopes that Obamacare will become a reality, that there will be more clean energy, US manufacturing and economic growth.

On the current Supreme Court judgement on the constitutionality of the individual mandate, Hero's predicts: "My read either 5-4 in favor or 5-4 or 6-3 against. If against then 5-4 to throw out the whole thing."


ETA:

Wulfenstar says 'Obamacare is finished'
Ezra Klein believes the US deficit is set to fix itself


It's not personal. It's just war.

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Friday, April 6, 2012 2:46 PM

KPO



Wulfenstar: "The case of Trayvon Martin is done.

It is starting to sound more, and more, like a good shoot."



It's not personal. It's just war.

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Friday, April 6, 2012 4:57 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by CaveTroll:
Interesting. I'll play.


No matter who is elected or which party is in power, not much is going to change.




'Nuff Said!

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Tuesday, April 10, 2012 2:24 PM

KPO



Storymarks says that Mitt Romney 'has a long, expensive, and very likely disappointing year ahead of him'.


It's not personal. It's just war.

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Friday, April 13, 2012 2:14 PM

OONJERAH



For 2012, I predict serious drought and higher food prices in the US.



. . . . .The worst and most frequent consequence of paranoia is that it's self-fulfilling.


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Tuesday, April 17, 2012 1:50 PM

KPO


Auraptor on George Zimmerman's 2nd degree murder charge:
"This can't / won't stick in any legitimate court... When the jury can't come back w/ the expected / hoped for verdict, then we'll have Rodney King riots, all over again."

CatPirate: The South won't vote for a Mormon. Obama will win in a landslide.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Sunday, April 22, 2012 1:08 PM

KPO



Whozit on Obama and 2012: "I think he's going to lose in a land slide, and a few Democrats who live in what they think are safe districts are also going to lose."


ETA:

CatPirate: America is on the way of South Africa. Aids invested and lawless nation. RJA is coming to a state near you. It will open all cases between black on white crime.


It's not personal. It's just war.

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Saturday, April 28, 2012 4:56 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


6StringJack: When we get Mitt into the President's Chair (which is an inevatibility now), I will vote for Dems in the congress in 2014.

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Saturday, May 5, 2012 10:22 AM

KPO



Whozit believes history will condemn JFK and Bill Clinton - for all the women they've hurt and killed(???).


It's not personal. It's just war.

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Saturday, May 5, 2012 3:28 PM

MAGONSDAUGHTER


I predict soylent green type products will be in use by 2020.


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Tuesday, May 8, 2012 3:52 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


6StringJack says "But seriously.... Mitt IS going to win in November. There is NO QUESTION about that."

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Wednesday, May 9, 2012 4:20 AM

KPO



And Frem assures 6ixStringJack otherwise.

Niki: "If by some weird fate he and they get into power, this country is truly doomed for a long, long time to come! I don't think he'll win, either..."

kpo: " I also have a hunch that Romney, if he gets in, would try to pass a stimulus bill..."


ETA:


kpo: ...And Republicans in Congress would vote for said bill
Story: If Republicans win the WH they'll return to the "Deficits don't matter" mindset


It's not personal. It's just war.

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Monday, May 14, 2012 3:31 PM

KPO



Paul Krugman predicts a Greek exit from the Euro within months ('very possibly next month'), and possibly, the end of the Euro.


http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/13/eurodammerung-2/

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Thursday, May 17, 2012 6:18 AM

KPO



Wulfenstar states: "I am sure that if Zimmerman is declared not-guilty, large groups of urban youths will release their frustrations at 400 years of oppression on us all".

He goes on to suggest that as a result of this 'vengeance' people will be forced to defend "themselves, their families, their homes and their businesses."


It's not personal. It's just war.

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Thursday, May 17, 2012 7:52 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them. Pity would be no more, If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


Unfortunately, I made my prediction a long time ago in a galaxy far away, so y'all will either have to trust me on this one, or those who remember what I wrote (if anyone does) will have to back up my claim, 'cause I really doubt I could find that thread again.

About a year and a half ago, we were discussing the best response to get the economy going again. republicans keep pressing for reduced taxes, reduced government spending and reduced deficit. And I said that if that were to happen, we would fall into a double-dip recession. And I was right. What I DIDN'T predict was that austerity would be implemented in Europe, not here. Nonetheless, austerity is causing a double-dip recession in Europe, and since all things are interconnected in today's world, I expect it will eventually get here too. It would be awfully instructive if the GOP decides to lean into it just as we start to keel over. I hope Romney is in office about then. Or as (former Mexican President) Calderon infamously said in a national address Yesterday, we were at the edge of a precipice. Today, we have taken a great step forward.

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Tuesday, May 22, 2012 11:57 AM

KPO



Jongstraw believes (outside of chemically induced highs) that Obama will win in November, due to the fact that 'More than half the country gets a Govt. check'.

Hero believes if Zimmerman is convicted the case will likely be overturned on appeal.


It's not personal. It's just war.

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