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Originally posted by second:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
You believe in fantasy?
Troll.

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Fantasy is Putin's entire oeuvre. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently announced the good news: Ukraine has been demilitarized! Here are his exact words:

“Indeed, Ukraine was heavily militarized at the time of the beginning of the Special Military Operation. And, as Putin said yesterday, one of the tasks was to demilitarize Ukraine. In fact, this task is largely completed. Ukraine is using less and less of its weapons. And more and more it uses the weapons systems that Western countries supply it with.”

Peskov’s is a strikingly bizarre interpretation of demilitarization. True, Ukraine has used up much of the equipment and ammunition that hailed from Soviet days. Equally true, it’s been the recipient of far more effective and modern and NATO-compatible weapons systems from the fifty-plus countries in the Ramstein group.

Just how this amounts to demilitarization, especially at a time when Ukraine has launched what appears to be a successful counteroffensive, is unclear.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putins-big-lie-might-be-a-scheme-
to-exit-the-ukraine-war/ar-AA1cK49k

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Because now it's no longer using it's own weapons and it's using weapons funded by your federal taxes.

This article is an admission that you are now paying for a war that Americans can't afford to be paying for.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

You believe in fantasy?
Troll.

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Originally posted by second:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Because now it's no longer using it's own weapons and it's using weapons funded by your federal taxes.

This article is an admission that you are now paying for a war that Americans can't afford to be paying for.

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6ix, there is something seriously wrong with you

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Originally posted by second:
US defense manufacturer Lockheed Martin indicated that it is ready to help Ukraine fly and maintain Lockheed’s F-16 fighter jets if NATO states agree to send them to Ukraine.[10] The Financial Times quoted Lockheed Martin Chief Operating Officer (COO) Frank St. John as stating that Lockheed is prepared to build new F-16s; modify existing airframes; and provide F-16 training, equipment, and systems support if NATO agrees to supply Ukraine with F-16s. US and other Western officials have recently signaled an increased willingness to provide Ukraine with F-16s, as ISW has previously reported.[11]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-june-19-2023

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Originally posted by second:
US defense manufacturer Lockheed Martin indicated that it is ready to help Ukraine fly and maintain Lockheed’s F-16 fighter jets if NATO states agree to send them to Ukraine.[10] The Financial Times quoted Lockheed Martin Chief Operating Officer (COO) Frank St. John as stating that Lockheed is prepared to build new F-16s; modify existing airframes; and provide F-16 training, equipment, and systems support if NATO agrees to supply Ukraine with F-16s. US and other Western officials have recently signaled an increased willingness to provide Ukraine with F-16s, as ISW has previously reported.[11]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-june-19-2023

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

And now you're not just blowing neo-cons... You're blowing the US War Machine too.

You guys are too funny.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
ISW (Nuland's neocon think -machine) says that there may be a "pause" in Kiev's Great Counteroffensive that isn't. Apparently Ukraine has lost over a thousand men, and hundreds of armored vehicles (including Bradleys and Leopards) and haven't advanced past the gray zone.

Yep, things are going well. Not.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Yep, things are going well. Not.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Yep, things are going so well for Kiev that the USA think tanks are actually considering EU troops and tactical nukes.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Russia isn't desperate. It can outlast NATO in Ukraine, playing defense to the west's offense, attriting weapons and men on their heavily fortified lines.

The worst that can happen to Russia is if NATO calls off the offensive, which might require Russia to go on the offensive.

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Originally posted by second:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Russia isn't desperate. It can outlast NATO in Ukraine, playing defense to the west's offense, attriting weapons and men on their heavily fortified lines.

The worst that can happen to Russia is if NATO calls off the offensive, which might require Russia to go on the offensive.

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Russia will forever brag about its victory in Ukraine. And why not? Russia cannot stop bragging about the Great Patriotic War, where 27 million Russians died but only 7 million Germans. Russia also bragged about its miraculous economic recovery, but Germany has an economy twice as big as Russia’s. Time proved that Germany was the real winner of WWII, compared to Russia. But what country only had 419,400 deaths and an economy now more than 10 times bigger than Russia’s? The USA.

Funny how Japan, conquered by the US, also has an economy many times larger than Russia's. That is because Russians are noteworthily incompetent when running businesses and wars. Funny how West Germany prospered while East Germany, under the Russians, stagnated until the Russians were gone.

The Russians fought incompetently in the past and in the present. Russians have always run their economy incompetently, too. So far, Russia is the winner of the least capable country in the world, judging by the number of deaths of its own citizens during war and after. Russia fights its Great Patriotic War, Part 2, Ukraine style! All victory will go to Russia, in the imagination of Russians, but not in reality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties

https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/russia/usa

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

More bullshit.
Troll.

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At the beginning, support for Ukraine in the U.S. was strongly bipartisan. No longer. While Democrats continue to back current levels of assistance, the share of Republicans who believe that we are doing too much has risen steadily, from 9% in March 2022 to 44% today, according to Pew. Recently, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy rebuffed a plan backed by both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell that would provide supplemental aid for Ukraine outside the normal appropriations process, on which the debt-ceiling agreement imposes caps for defense as well as nondefense spending. Assistance to Kyiv could be cut as soon as the end of September.

Mr. Zelensky must also take into account the possibility that Donald Trump, no friend of Ukraine, will return to the Oval Office after the November 2024 election. Mr. Trump has promised to end the war within 24 hours of taking office. Allowing for hyperbole, there is every reason to believe that he would swiftly reverse current policy, weakening Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression. Unless Mr. Zelensky is prepared to wager the future of his country on the whims of American voters, he should seriously consider locking in the best deal he can get from his allies while support remains strong.

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Originally posted by second:
Why Putin Will Never Agree to De-escalate

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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Originally posted by second:
Why Putin Will Never Agree to De-escalate

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Because the USA and the collective west have broken every agreement, treaty, contract, and promise we made with the USSR and Russia?
Because we bragged that the Minsk Agreement was just a delaying tactic that we
never intended to keep?
Bc we, the collective west, have shown ourselves to be dishonest, dishonorable, and "not agreement capable"?

Because they're winning?

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Poor comrade signym. She blames everyone but the Russians for their sins upon humanity. No comrade, no. Stand next to Russia as you look in the mirror. You will see who is guilty of broken promises and crimes against humanity.

And understand this. For decades to come the crimes of Russia will be tried not only in the courts, but in the court of public opinion.

T

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Originally posted by second:
Why Putin Will Never Agree to De-escalate

SIGNY Because the USA and the collective west have broken every agreement, treaty, contract, and promise we made with the USSR and Russia?
Because we bragged that the Minsk Agreement was just a delaying tactic that we
never intended to keep?
Bc we, the collective west, have shown ourselves to be dishonest, dishonorable, and "not agreement capable"?
Because they're winning?

THUGR: Poor comrade signym. She blames everyone but the Russians for their sins upon humanity. No comrade, no. Stand next to Russia as you look in the mirror. You will see who is guilty of broken promises and crimes against humanity.

And understand this. For decades to come the crimes of Russia will be tried not only in the courts, but in the court of public opinion.

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THE RUSSIAN WAY OF WAR IN UKRAINE: A MILITARY APPROACH NINE DECADES IN THE MAKING.

It’s fascinating enough to do a full breakdown on because much of the analysis confirms not only many things we’ve been discussing here for months, but also that Russia is adapting, evolving, and arguably revolutionizing modern warfare. And more to the point, it validates the assertions long held by those in the know that Russia’s current—sometimes mystifying—frontline tactics are precisely intentioned choices, rather than the haphazard bricolage of a fouled-up or directionless command.

The article begins with a cautionary note about how Russia’s perceived shortcomings or ‘blunders’—like the Kharkov retreat, etc.—have been over-simplified into a false narrative of a weak or failing armed forces. The author immediately establishes that Russia is actually ‘ahead of [its] time’ in terms of conceptual military strategic advancement.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:

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Originally posted by second:
Why Putin Will Never Agree to De-escalate

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Because the USA and the collective west have broken every agreement, treaty, contract, and promise we made with the USSR and Russia?
Because we bragged that the Minsk Agreement was just a delaying tactic that we
never intended to keep?
Bc we, the collective west, have shown ourselves to be dishonest, dishonorable, and "not agreement capable"?

Because they're winning?

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Quote:

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Originally posted by second:

Quote:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:

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Originally posted by second:
Why Putin Will Never Agree to De-escalate

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Because the USA and the collective west have broken every agreement, treaty, contract, and promise we made with the USSR and Russia?
Because we bragged that the Minsk Agreement was just a delaying tactic that we
never intended to keep?
Bc we, the collective west, have shown ourselves to be dishonest, dishonorable, and "not agreement capable"?

Because they're winning?

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Signym, you don't read much, do you?

Objectives such as substituting Western imports with domestic products, having Russians vacation inside the country, and restoring the prestige of the Russian armed forces have been on Putin’s agenda for decades, but in the end, only war proved capable of making Russian bureaucrats, businessmen, and wider society implement them for real.

None of these developments are as straightforward as they may look to Putin — and their costs for Russia are immense. But the key lesson he has drawn from Russian history is that if you want to achieve something worthy in such a vast and disorganized country, the cost will inevitably be high. While the losses will fade with time, the achievements will be remembered by later generations. And even if the costs are high, Putin has not found anything that can rival the war in its destructive efficiency for shaping the history of Russia and the world.

And that is why Putin will never agree to de-escalate.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Russia has signed multiple treaties, agreements, and contracts with us (the USA and collective west) and scrupulously kept up their end of every agreement. For example, they kept gas flowing thru Ukraine, paying transit fees even as Ukraine shelled Donbas and refused to pay Russia the $3 billion that they owed.

We OTOH have renged on every promise made and every document signed, from nuclear treaties to dicking over long-term gas contracts and loans, from stealing Russia's assets to banning Russian ballet. Russians started talking about Americans not being "agreement capable" years ago, and they just added Europe to the list.

The one lesson they learned from being constantly backstabbed by the west is that the only thing we understand is power, and the only thing that will make us stop behaving like world-class jerks is ignominious defeat.

That's our fault, not theirs.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
dragging another red herring across your very own argument again, I see.what does poverty have to do with whether or not we (the collective west) can be trusted to keep our promises?

it doesn't.

sod off, troll.

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Originally posted by second:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
dragging another red herring across your very own argument again, I see.what does poverty have to do with whether or not we (the collective west) can be trusted to keep our promises?

it doesn't.

sod off, troll.

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How can CO2, increasing from 300 parts per million to more than 400 parts per million have such huge Climate effects? One part per million is so tiny that it could not possibly change things. In Russia, corruption and incompetence at the very top have increased by parts per million compared to other countries, but the effect has been disastrous for the economic climate of Russia. The Russian leadership is screaming that it is all a hoax. That things are not bad in Russia, except for what the West did to Russia. Signym, I am not sorry to tell you this but Russia's poverty relative to other countries is not a hoax. The poverty was caused by Russia's corrupt and incompetent leaders, not the West, and conquering Ukraine will not fix what is wrong with Russia.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

And what does his have to do with whether or not the collective west can be trusted to negotiate honestly/

it doesn't.

You're a perect example of the weasels on our government, troll.

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KIEV AIMS TO LOWER EXPECTATIONS
Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive has been underway for over two weeks, and Kiev has little to show for the loss of life and military equipment expended the in the operations. On Monday, a Ukrainian military official attempted to lower expectations for the counteroffensive. In Washington, members of Congress say future support Kiev depends on regaining territory.

In an interview with the Czech Present Time TV station Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov downplayed how much territory Kiev will retake in the counteroffensive. “The Russians had the opportunity to prepare. There is an incredible density of minefields,” he said. “Our officers, our commanders are maneuvering, look for opportunities, move carefully. I suggest not pushing them, not pushing them, they are doing their job. And they will do it.”

While Reznikov argued Kiev’s attempt to preserve its soldiers’ lives is slowing the operations, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Mark Milley, believes Ukraine will sustain massive losses during the counteroffensive. “This is a very difficult fight. It’s a very violent fight, and it will likely take considerable time and at high cost,” he said.

...

Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister, Hanna Maliar, acknowledged there was extensive fighting along the frontlines and Russian forces were on the offensive in some areas. “In the south, battles are currently taking place in the directions where Ukrainian soldiers are advancing, and the enemy is on the defensive,” she posted on Telegram. “At the same time, we have directions where, on the contrary, the enemy is advancing, and we are on the defensive. For example, Kupiansk and Lyman.”

Washington has been helping Kiev plan the counteroffensive since the Winter. The US and other NATO countries pour weapons into Ukraine for the operations. So far, Ukraine has failed to retake territory.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Oh yes, pity the poor Russian oligarchs who parasitized Russia and took their gains out of Russia.

But what does this have to do with whether we, the collective west, can be counted on to reach agreement honestly and keep up our end of the bargain? Bc, yanno, uness that happens, Russia will not negotiate with us again. They've learned their lesson, many times over!

So unless something incredible happens ... like, the whole neocon/security state/media cabal is somewhow swept from power, or NATO/USA makes real, on-the-ground concessions like removing missile installations and bases from Russia's border... expect Russia to keep fighting until they've reached their objectives satsifactorily.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Oh yes, pity the poor Russian oligarchs who parasitized Russia and took their gains out of Russia.

But what does this have to do with whether we, the collective west, can be counted on to reach agreement honestly and keep up our end of the bargain? Bc, yanno, uness that happens, Russia will not negotiate with us again. They've learned their lesson, many times over!

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Originally posted by THG:

Quote:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Oh yes, pity the poor Russian oligarchs who parasitized Russia and took their gains out of Russia.

But what does this have to do with whether we, the collective west, can be counted on to reach agreement honestly and keep up our end of the bargain? Bc, yanno, uness that happens, Russia will not negotiate with us again. They've learned their lesson, many times over!

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Simple, because Russia said it would not invade Ukraine if they gave up their nukes, so they did. Russia invaded, Liars.

We said if they gave up their nukes and were attacked we would help, which we are. Honest, see comrade, simple.

T

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Originally posted by second:

Quote:

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Originally posted by THG:

Quote:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Oh yes, pity the poor Russian oligarchs who parasitized Russia and took their gains out of Russia.

But what does this have to do with whether we, the collective west, can be counted on to reach agreement honestly and keep up our end of the bargain? Bc, yanno, uness that happens, Russia will not negotiate with us again. They've learned their lesson, many times over!

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Simple, because Russia said it would not invade Ukraine if they gave up their nukes, so they did. Russia invaded, Liars.

We said if they gave up their nukes and were attacked we would help, which we are. Honest, see comrade, simple.

T

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When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine had the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal on its territory. When Ukrainian-Russian negotiations on removing these weapons from Ukraine appeared to break down in September 1993, the U.S. government engaged in a trilateral process with Ukraine and Russia. The result was the Trilateral Statement, signed in January 1994, under which Ukraine agreed to transfer the nuclear warheads to Russia for elimination. In return, Ukraine received security assurances from the United States, Russia and Britain; compensation for the economic value of the highly-enriched uranium in the warheads (which could be blended down and converted into fuel for nuclear reactors); and assistance from the United States in dismantling the missiles, missile silos, bombers and nuclear infrastructure on its territory. Steven Pifer recounts the history of this unique negotiation and describes the key lessons learned.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-trilateral-process-the-united-s
tates-ukraine-russia-and-nuclear-weapons/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Originally posted by second:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian intelligence indicates that Russian forces are preparing to conduct a possible sabotage attack at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

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But the author [of a USA report] leaves us with one final very important point:

However, current battlefield conditions are adding the related difficulty of achieving the concentration of forces necessary for establishing main efforts during offensive operations. This is reducing large-scale engagements and thereby necessitating a concentration and synchronization of effects, rather than a traditional physical massing of troops. In turn, this places an extra burden on command and control, especially when contested by electronic warfare. Only by disrupting the opponent’s kill chain can larger formations regain the ability to concentrate and engage in maneuver warfare. During the war in Ukraine, superiority in kill-chain effectiveness has become one of the prime objectives for both sides. In this war and any other characterized by the same dynamics, this superiority becomes an essential condition for victory.

It may read as a bit of a word salad for the uninitiated, but allow me to break it down because it converges with a conclusive point I myself made a few reports back about how it’s possible to break the feared modern deadlock.

Firstly, it reiterates the obvious one last time: that achieving the necessary force concentration required to make breakthroughs is nearly impossible because large globs of units are too vulnerable to instant annihilation by unstoppable long range precision systems. Just last week there was ‘rumor’ that a Chechen commander who gave a ‘rousing speech’ to a large collection of his troops ended up being visited by the HIMARs fairy within moments.

The simple fact is, small modern drones are nearly invisible to radars.... The point being that there is simply no way to get around the fact that small drones will be buzzing and watching you at all times no matter how big of a ‘super power’ you are, and any troop concentration you foolishly expose onto the field will be quickly bombed by a competent foe.

But the key is the next sentence, which I’ll paste again:

This is reducing large-scale engagements and thereby necessitating a concentration and synchronization of effects, rather than a traditional physical massing of troops. In turn, this places an extra burden on command and control, especially when contested by electronic warfare.

This is the crux of it all: in order to circumvent this deadlock, the only way is by creating a highly efficient, fluid and well-trained command and control that can very competently coordinate the various units and ‘effects’ (EW, fires, psych/hybrid, etc.) in a potently synchronized fashion so as to enable advancing ground units to make punctures and breakthroughs in the enemy’s lines by way of the other coordinated systems identifying and suppressing key defensive structures, batteries, etc.

In short, it requires a full spectrum combined arms capability where airforce, [includig satellite], divisional artillery, signals/EW troops, and lower command all operate in smooth synchronization to make the advance together. If you’ll recall, this was exactly the chief point I belabored in explaining why the AFU’s first big Leopard/Bradley foray failed in the minefields, and how they weren’t able to synchronize all the required elements in order to suppress Russian defenses (artillery, ATGMs, mine re-layers, etc.), which caused a herky jerky advance that sometimes saw the AFU armor convoys having to “stop and wait” in place for extended periods of time while their forward scouts or drone ISR teams slowly relayed coordinates to fires groups in an attempt to suppress the defenses enough that the armor group can advance without instant destruction.

The problem is Russia still has issues with integration of this sort. It may be better than Ukraine’s, and it’s improving every day, with some sectors and unit pairings / theater commands faring better than others. But there have been cases in the past, particularly during the Kharkov offensive of last year, where horror stories abounded about the lack of communication/coordination between Russian air groups and ground forces, as an example, with Su-25 pilots trying desperately to call troops on the ground with their cellphones in order to figure out who to bomb.

You might wonder how that’s possible when the entire point of this article is to convey Russia’s decades of military brilliance in theorizing these very solutions. [operaional theory, which bridges tactics and strategy] The issue lies in the fact that it’s one thing to theorize all this, and a whole different thing to smoothly institute it into your command structures and, most importantly, train and inculcate it into every one of your troops and units. So, while they developed these systems on paper, the actual implementation of it remains patchy—but it’s greatly improving all the time.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
THE THEORY AND ART OF WAFARE
This is extracted from a hugely long article and itself was edited for brevity.

MORE. LOTS MORE. AT https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/dissecting-west-point-think-tanks

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

If Russia ruins the power plant -which it controls, is in its territory, and supplies electricity to its portion of the former Ukraine - not only will it lose electricity from the Europe's largest npp, it will face a monumental cleanup of the facility itself and the surrounding area.

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Originally posted by second:


“Please let me die”: Freed Ukrainian POW describes first thoughts after Russian capture | 60 Minutes

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