Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

“There’s Nothing Mystical About the Idea that Ideas Change History”

Q: The international-relations theory of Realism assumes that human progress (at least when it comes to the relations between states) is impossible. This is why Francis Fukuyama criticized it as the “billiard ball” theory of international relations — it assumes that state behavior will always be dictated by mindless, mechanistic forces like the distribution of power in the international system. What’s your take on Realism?

SP: As it happens, I recently debated John Mearsheimer, the foremost Realist theorist. “Realism” is a misnomer — it’s a highly unrealistic idealization of the relationships among states, barely more sophisticated than the board game Risk. It assumes that countries seek nothing but power and expansion, because the only defense against being invaded is to go on offense first. But this ignores the other ways nations can protect themselves — like Switzerland, the porcupine of Europe. It’s also unrealistic about the psychology of leaders. It attributes to all leaders all the time a motive that some leaders have some of the time, namely, territorial aggrandizement. It’s a theory of Putin now, but not all leaders are Putin. Many countries are perfectly content to stay within their borders and get rich through trade. The Netherlands once had an empire, but the Dutch are not seething to rectify this historic humiliation and annex Belgium or reconquer Indonesia. Likewise, Germany could probably conquer Austria or Slovakia or Poland, but in today’s world, why would it want to? What would it do with them? Why not just trade goods and tourists? Who cares about the number of square inches of your color on a map? So expansion is not a constant thirst of all leaders.

And as Christopher Fettweiss and others have pointed out, the theory of Realism was falsified by events since the end of the Cold War. So-called Realism predicted that large states always seek to maximize their power and aggrandize their preeminence, but the Soviet Union voluntarily went out of existence. Realists predicted that a hegemon would inevitably rise up to balance the United States, so that by the beginning of the 21st century, some other country, probably Germany, would arm itself to become as powerful as the United States. Realists not-so-realistically predicted there would be a proliferation of nuclear-weapon states across Europe, starting with Germany. That didn’t happen either. They said NATO would go out of existence because it had been held together only by the common threat of the Soviet bloc. Again, false. They predicted there would be a rise in the number of wars and war deaths in the decades following the Soviet collapse. The opposite happened.

To the credit of the Realists, they did make empirical predictions, as a good scientific theory should. So they should now concede that the predictions have been falsified and we should move on to a more sophisticated theory of leaders’ motivations.

https://quillette.com/2023/12/01/theres-nothing-mystical-about-the-ide
a-that-ideas-change-history/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, December 10, 2023 1:55 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Nations aren't moved by the motives of individuals, bc these individuals are themselves shaped and permitted by larger forces (eg. concentrations of money) and other, more powerful individuals.

For example, most of the EU political "elite" have been shaped by the WEF. They get identified as Young Leaders, go to the same schools, and groomed for and boosted into for office once they've become sufficiently pliable.

How else to account for the raft of impossibly brainless, nation-hating "national leaders" in the EU and USA today, like

Annalena "360°" Baerbock,
""Dancing Queen" Sanna Marin,
Ursula "vander Crazy",
"Jungle" Josep Borrell,
"Spineless" Scholz,
"Napolean" Macron

and the host of equally brainless, clueless, nation-hating USA politicians?

Anyway, there is an idea whose time has come, and -moreover- there is the power to make it stick: The USA should stop trying to dominate the entire world. Its called multipolarity.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Sunday, December 10, 2023 2:45 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

How else to account for the raft of impossibly brainless, nation-hating "national leaders" in the EU and USA today . . .

and the host of equally brainless, clueless, nation-hating USA politicians?

Those "leaders" seek admiration for goodness and are striving to be reelected by the fearful. The leadership strategy that appeals to such voters doesn't work when the "leaders" are facing violent and aggressive enemies. Most "leaders" can't pivot to an effective fighting mode when confronted by Putin because they lack convictions. They are Eurocrats who are comfortable when someone else takes the awful burden of fighting. Bureaucrats can't go beyond their paperwork, speeches, and alcohol for lunch because none of them can do much more than that. Make life and death decisions? They much rather not make those because it is too stressful and might interfere with subsequent reelections. Making hard decisions means losing votes.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, December 10, 2023 4:05 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

How else to account for the raft of impossibly brainless, nation-hating "national leaders" in the EU and USA today . . .

and the host of equally brainless, clueless, nation-hating USA politicians?

SECOND: Those "leaders" seek admiration for

PERCEIVED

Quote:
goodness and are striving to be reelected by the fearful.

You believe that, or expect us to believe that?

In reality, our "leaders" are looking to continue their profitable sinecures funneling taxpayer $$ into monopolies while scraping as much $$ into their pockets as possible. Mostly, they're the billionaires' gofers.

Oh, is that too much reality?

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Sunday, December 10, 2023 11:15 PM

Remember "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire", or the days when Jose Conseco was the first athlete paid $1 Million per year?

Now they tell you if you don't have a Million Bucks in your 401k by the time you retire you're going to have a shitty end-life, and the shittiest baseball player on the shittiest team makes $720,000.

Meanwhile, minimum wage has risen in that time from $3.80 per hour to $7.25 per hour.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Monday, December 11, 2023 7:12 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova emphasized that Russia's maximalist objectives in Ukraine have not changed, repeating the Kremlin’s demand for full Ukrainian political capitulation and Kyiv’s acceptance of Russia’s military and territorial demands rather than suggesting any willingness to negotiate seriously. In a written interview with AFP on December 9, Zakharova claimed that a "comprehensive, sustainable, and fair resolution" in Ukraine can only happen if the West stops "pumping up the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons" and that Ukraine surrenders Russia’s claimed Ukrainian territory and "withdraws its troops," presumably from Ukrainian territory Russia claims to have annexed.[1] Zakharova emphasized the Kremlin's longstanding claim that Russia invaded Ukraine for "de-militarization," "denazification," and to "ensure the rights of Russian-speaking citizens" in Ukraine.[2] The Kremlin has consistently used the term “denazification” as code for the removal of the elected government of Ukraine and its replacement by some government the Kremlin regards as acceptable—i.e., regime change.[3] “De-militarization” would obviously leave Ukraine permanently at Russia’s mercy. Zakharova's comments clearly highlight the fact that the initial goals of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as set out by Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 24, 2022, have not changed, and that Putin does not intend to end the war unless his maximalist objectives have been accomplished.[4] ISW continues to assess that Russia does not intend to engage in serious negotiations with Ukraine in good faith and that negotiations on Russia's terms are tantamount to full Ukrainian and Western surrender.[5]

Zakharova's demand that Ukraine withdraw its troops from "Russian territory" as a necessary prerequisite for the resolution of the war suggests that Russia's maximalist objectives include controlling the entirety of the four oblasts it has illegally annexed parts of. Russian forces currently militarily control portions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, but Russia formally (and illegally) annexed the entirety of these oblasts in September of 2022.[6] Zakharova's suggestion that Ukrainian forces must entirely withdraw from territory that Russia has claimed through its sham annexation suggests that the Russian demands include the surrender of additional Ukrainian territory that Russian forces do not currently control up to the administrative borders of the four occupied oblasts. Calls for Ukraine's capitulation under the current circumstances of Russian control of Ukrainian territory up to the current frontline are already unacceptable from the standpoint of vital Ukrainian and Western national security interests, as ISW has previously assessed.[7] The Russian demand for an even more expansive surrender of Ukrainian-held territory that Russian forces could likely conquer only at the cost of tremendous additional blood, treasure, and time, if they can do it at all, indicates that Russia’s aims far transcend keeping the territory Russian forces have already seized. It is noteworthy, in this regard, that Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, which Russia has not claimed to have annexed, suggesting that Russia’s territorial aims may be even more expansive than those Zakharova laid out.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-december-10-2023

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, December 11, 2023 7:16 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Worrying words from Germany: "We have no alternative"

ed. KBN
10:01 AM EST, December 10, 2023

https://essanews.com/worrying-words-from-germany-we-have-no-alternativ
e,6972211502102657a

The Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, General Carsten Breuer, has expressed serious concerns over the escalating threat from Russia and underscored the need for actionable measures. "This should worry us all," he stressed.

In an interview with the German newspaper "Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung", General Breuer amplified his concerns about Russia's growing military might - a phenomenon he believes should not only alarm the military, but the entire society.

"I am troubled by how rapidly Russia is amassing weapons and the stance Putin is taking. This should scare us all, but most importantly we need to turn these fears into action now," he urged the German military.

He reiterated his worry over the mounting risks from Russia and emphasized the need for strategized actions to counteract these dangers.

Situation is tense

General Breuer sees no prospects for a return to the pre-2022 status quo when Russia invaded Ukraine. "We must start getting used to the idea that one day we may have to wage a defensive war(...)" Breuer stated. "His words hint at an international situation on the brink of tension, which could force defensive action shortly."

Breuer also highlighted the necessity to brace for new technological challenges and a more aggressive hybrid war. "We have to prepare for technological advancements and an intensifying hybrid war. Recognizing the threat is the first step. It's not only us soldiers, but the entire society must acknowledge the need for even stronger deterrence," Breuer asserted.

He believes that the public should be conscious of the growing dangers and the need for action to counteract these threats.

General Breuer also pointed out shortcomings in the readiness of German armed forces for national and allied defense. "We see now a Bundeswehr that is not yet sufficiently prepared for this," the general said. He discussed "structures that make rapid and focused decisions nearly impossible". He explained how the Bundeswehr's years-long focus on international crisis management is now becoming an issue when the alliance and national defense are once again in the spotlight.

When questioned on whether the Bundeswehr could handle a potential assault from Russia on NATO following the war in Ukraine, Breuer emphatically responded, "Yes, absolutely. We have no other choice. We can defend ourselves, and we will defend ourselves". His words imply that German forces are committed to defending their nation and allies, despite the potential challenges they may face.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, December 11, 2023 7:35 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russia’s Military Cruelty Begins With Its Own Conscripts

Brutal hazing breaks and humiliates Russian soldiers — and they take it out on civilians.

By Kristaps Andrejsons | December 10, 2023, 6:00 AM

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/10/russia-military-conscripts-hazing
-torture/

Every six months, approximately 130,000 Russian conscripts are called up for their year of service, where most of them will face sadistic hazing. In Russian, it’s called dedovshchina, a brutal internal army regime that began in Soviet times but is thoroughly embedded in modern military culture. Western militaries have worked hard to reduce bullying and hazing in the ranks with some, but not complete, success. But in Russia’s army, dedovshchina is a unique cultural staple and a formative part of the military identity. It’s a process that leaves Russian soldiers brutalized and traumatized; it in turn teaches them to inflict pain on others.

Multiple sources, both those who served in Soviet times and those with experience in the modern Russian Armed Forces, have described this hazing to me as not just a byproduct of service but as a deliberate part of Russian military indoctrination. (I interviewed these sources during my history studies and early journalism work on this subject and reached back out to many for this piece.) The same attitude is expressed all over the Russian internet. In 2006, as Lenta.ru reported, the then-prosecutor-general of Russia, Vladimir Ustinov, even admitted in a speech to President Vladimir Putin and his prosecutor colleagues that he “is unable to do anything about the criminality in the armed forces.”

The survivors of this hazing say the main goal is to break young men. They are turned into submissive, intimidated, and obedient drones who will not ask unnecessary questions nor show any independent thought or initiative. The methods are brutal. Take punching the plywood, used as a so-called toughness training exercise and also as a form of collective punishment. Service members stand in formation in a single line at attention. An authority figure passing by the formation hits each of the standing service members in the chest with the butt of an AKM assault rifle until the bolt jerks in the frame. Soldiers who’ve been through this say that it leaves your chest black and bruised for at least a week.

Then there is staking the moose, especially prominent in the Russian Air Force. The soldier puts his hands on his forehead with the palms facing outward, like a moose’s spread antlers. His abuser hits the center of the crossed palms with his fists, or a rifle butt, or a stool, or whatever else is on hand. The task of the “moose” is to remain standing. Failure to do so will, undoubtedly, result in even more severe beatings and other punishments. There are various versions of this, such as “suicidal moose,” where a far-off wall is chosen and the conscript is forced to run toward it as fast as possible until their “antlers” slam into it. If they don’t run fast enough, there are more beatings.

Not all punishments are physical. In a blog called Army Diary of a Conscript 2012-13, the author, who just goes by “Sergei,” writes: “It is one thing when you are awakened at night by a blow on the head with a stool, after which you get bullied just for ‘fun,’ and another thing, for example, when younger conscripts are sent to hard and dishonorable work in the first place. The difference is in the goals — sometimes suffering and humiliation is the main purpose, and sometimes it is a side effect.”

Another former conscript posted about his experiences in a link that’s now only accessible through waybackmachine: “Fear. Misunderstanding. And fear again. To the point of shaking at the knees. It’s a strange feeling. I’m surprised it’s so prevalent. We weren’t ‘guests for three days’ in the old army tradition. We got picked up and beaten senseless the first night.”

“Guests for three days” here means the unwritten rule once adhered to in Soviet times, where the conscripts were treated with overplayed kindness and politeness for three days, before the horror began, just to see what kind of people they were and how they would act in stressful situations. Such niceties have largely disappeared.

But those are just the regular methods. Some of the ways to dedi, or break, the young conscripts are genuinely disturbing — and those who’ve served seldom want to talk about the worst experiences they’ve had. This isn’t surprising, because oftentimes it’s on the same level as the worst punishments in the prison culture, and parallels incidents in today’s police torture cases in Russia. There are cases of rape and being forced into prostitution and threats of such. Then there are abuses like the infamous sitting on a bottle, often used by Ramzan Kadyrov’s Chechen units to punish those who oppose them. It’s all about humiliation — some of it imitated from the ponyatiya, the sadistic regime of Russian prison culture.

As the name, literally the “rule of the old-timers,” suggests, dedovshchina is based on the superiority of veterans to rookies. While there’s always been bullying, going back to the tsarist military, Soviet dedovshchina began right after World War II, when the army was still swollen by the wartime call-up. Of course, the military command realized that hazing was a foolish idea, but the army severely lacked manpower, due to the immense number of casualties it had suffered, and there was little appetite for cracking down on soldiers. Due to the lack of manpower, prisoners were also often transferred to the army, which led to the spread of their own unwritten laws, the ponyatiya, among the armed forces.

Veterans who had survived a war that killed 8.7 million of their comrades and around 19 million Soviet civilians were not interested in peacetime military affairs and everyday chores like washing floors or cleaning. Nor did they care much about proper dress code and discipline. Their officers had often served with them in the war and tended to treat them with well-earned respect — so these veterans instead delegated all the daily work to the fresh recruits and also took it upon themselves to teach them proper discipline and the ethos of the army, severely beating them in cases of disobedience. And then the veterans demobilized and the previous victims took their place, creating a permanent cycle of violence.

This only intensified after Leonid Brezhnev’s 1968 reduction of the term of service in the army from three to two years. Since the Soviet Union had become a stagnant bureaucracy, the reduction had numerous flaws and was implemented carelessly and haphazardly. Those who had already served one year had to continue serving for two more, while the new recruits had to serve for only two years. This caused resentment in the older recruits and hatred in the younger, so the older service members began to amplify the violence and humiliation they inflicted upon new recruits, who then did the same to subsequent conscripts.

After the introduction of the one-year system, in another half-hearted attempt at military reform in the mid-2000s, these term-based beatings became less formalized. However, this didn’t mean a stop or even a general decrease in violence, just a change in the reasoning and pace behind it. Today, the older service members just beat up whomever they like. A soldier used to take beatings for a year and then spend another year giving them to the fresh recruits. Now a conscript does both for six months apiece. Once-organized violence has become general brutality.

Another form of hazing is zemlyadstvo: hazing on national or regional grounds. It started when the various nationalities of the Soviet Union — and today the Russian Federation — formed cliques and clustered together to collectively deal with “outsiders.” The nature of zemlyadstvo has not changed much since the Soviet era — save for the general disappearance of some of the nationalities, like Georgians and Armenians, once involved. But there are still plenty of minorities inside Russia, and they’re particularly targeted for conscription. It is disproportionately the minorities, especially those from the eastern regions, who bear the brunt of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Despite selling itself as an international workers’ paradise, the Soviet Union was anything but. Russian culture was always pushed to the national republics as a superior one, and if you weren’t seen as properly Russian, then you’d often be treated as a second-class citizen. We in the Baltics were always “evil Nazi sympathizers,” with Estonians especially portrayed as slow and dim-witted. There was a range of ethnic slurs: Caucasians were chernye, “blacks,” or “black-assed”; Central Asians were cherka, “blockheads”; Ukrainians were nothing but khohols; and so forth. Those attitudes have persisted, producing conflicts between the ethnic Russians, who tend to view themselves as superior, and everyone else.

For some groups, these were essentially protective alliances, shielding members from the brutality. My late father told me that, in his unit, people from the Baltics used to hang out in the vehicle workshop, doing all the necessary work there, while those from the Caucasus took over the canteen. That spoke to their power, since it was always warm there and they had access to extra food. Neither of these groups spent much time in the barracks, thus avoiding the dedovshchina that took place there. Teaming up in this way was vital, because otherwise Russian racism led to minorities being subjected to the worst bullying — as in the tragic case of Shamsutdinov, an ethnic Tatar from the Tyumen oblast who snapped and shot his comrades.

This case blew up all over the Russian internet at the time. My interviewees agreed that because he had an “Asiatic look,” he must’ve been treated extra harshly by the ethnic Russians. “He must have jumped higher than his place,” a Russian sailor currently serving in the North Sea told me on the phone. “Must’ve tried to complain to someone about the beatings or dared to stand up to someone. Bad idea. For the army, they (the non-Russians) are meat. They’re far from Moscow or Saint Petersburg. Nobody cares when they die.” Today, the attitude of Russian superiority beaten into soldiers feeds into the racism of Putin’s war, where Ukrainians are portrayed as subhuman.

To some extent, dedovshchina thrived during peacetime in the absence of anything else to do — and traditionally it diminished during war. However, as Putin fuels and supports hate groups within his own country for political reasons, it’s only getting worse. One traditional aspect that hasn’t changed about brutality, however, is that it tends to play out in violence against civilians. Ukrainian civilians suffer war crimes from brutalized Russians, just as Chinese suffered from the brutalized imperial Japanese. That, too, was a militarized society, where people were taught that their lives belonged to the emperor. Training was brutal, and beatings — for very little reason or none at all — were often. And those who endured became brutal and desensitized themselves, capable of justifying any cruelty. Similar parallels can be drawn with the South Korean Army of the Vietnam War, whose ultra-harsh internal discipline and brutal training produced its cruel treatment of the Vietnamese.

And the internal violence in the Russian army has gotten worse — even before the brewing ethnic tensions are taken into account. There are reports of those who want to refuse fighting in Ukraine, or just misbehave in the Russian army, being beaten by the military police and then being put in torture pits for days. The soldiers who are returning home are committing crimes, and violence in Russia is becoming ever more normalized.

This is nothing new — statistics published by the U.S. Department of Justice in 1992 showed that, in 1989, when the Soviet-Afghan War ended, the overall number of recorded crimes grew by 31.8 percent. Obviously, the last returning soldiers weren’t the only cause for this, but they certainly played their part. And then came the 1990s, when veterans of the Chechen wars played their part in creating the peaks of murder reached in 1994 and 2002.

Another generation will be put through the wringer of Russia’s self-inflicted misery. Russian opposition journalists are already talking about how Russia has changed and what it’s going to be like to live there after the war. But none of this brutality, nor the hate groups and crime that have spawned from it, is going to go away easily.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, December 11, 2023 7:45 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Worrying words from Germany: "We have no alternative"

ed. KBN
10:01 AM EST, December 10, 2023

https://essanews.com/worrying-words-from-germany-we-have-no-alternativ
e,6972211502102657a

The Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, General Carsten Breuer, has expressed serious concerns over the escalating threat from Russia and underscored the need for actionable measures. "This should worry us all," he stressed.

In an interview with the German newspaper "Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung", General Breuer amplified his concerns about Russia's growing military might - a phenomenon he believes should not only alarm the military, but the entire society.

"I am troubled by how rapidly Russia is amassing weapons and the stance Putin is taking. This should scare us all, but most importantly we need to turn these fears into action now," he urged the German military.

He reiterated his worry over the mounting risks from Russia and emphasized the need for strategized actions to counteract these dangers.

Situation is tense

General Breuer sees no prospects for a return to the pre-2022 status quo when Russia invaded Ukraine. "We must start getting used to the idea that one day we may have to wage a defensive war(...)" Breuer stated. "His words hint at an international situation on the brink of tension, which could force defensive action shortly."

What? He means that after almost 70 YEARS of Germany in NATO, they're JUST NOW getting around to the idea of fighting a defensive war???

WTF have they been doing all these years???
And maybe if they'd been more on the defense and less about World Domination and Global Hegemony, they wouldn't be in the pickle they are now.

They have got to be the stupidest bunch of sychophants ever!
That whole generation of "leadership" needs to be replaced. Just vote 'em out en masse, never to return.

Russia wants to roll back NATO to the boundaries that existed when Germany was unified and the west promised "not one inch eastward". But once Ukraine has been neutralized... literally... I believe Russia's next immediate targets are those AMERICAN MISSILE BASES in Poland and Romania. I see no way for Russia to address those concerns without directly confronting NATO.

BUT. Russia has been VERY CLEAR what its concerns are: Border and "near abroad" security. It's not like Berlin or Paris or Italy are going to be invaded.

I wish our collective neocon fuckers would get a gorram clue about the real world and start behaving rationally about it.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Monday, December 11, 2023 8:27 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

SIMPLICIUS seems to have some awesome sources....
Shades of SADDAM WMD!!!
Go to article for links.

Quote:
Establishment Alarmism in Overdrive as Raytheon Lloyd Threatens Congress with War

I wanted to do this quick nightly update as there are a few developments that couldn’t wait.

Most astonishing of all, is the panicked tenor with which the U.S. establishment is now desperately trying to convince Congress of the need for Ukrainian aid.

You’ll recall in the last report I emphasized how the tone was now shifting to: “Russia will invade Europe next!” But even I didn’t expect them to run with that new narrative in such a provocative and alarmist way.

Now a new raft of reports and statements from the usual suspects gives us insight into how desperate the establishment warhawks representing MIC interests have really become.

First, these two videos. Biden openly says that American troops will have to fight Russian troops if Ukraine is not shored up immediately:

(BIDEN: AMERICAN TROOPS FIGHTING RUSSIA/ MSNBC)

Kirby and Blinken stepped up the fearmongering as well, evoking spilled “American blood”:
(KIRBY/ FOXNEWS)
(SULLIVAN/ USGLC.ORG)

They’re dialing up the fearporn to a hysteric level like never before:

(SEC DEF AUSTEN/ CONGRESS)

....

But most startling of all, is a new report, which Tucker Carlson says is “confirmed” by his private sources, that Lloyd Austin has resorted to outright threatening the Republican House holdouts, telling them “We’ll send your kids to fight Russia” if they don’t break their deadlock over the Ukrainian aid:

Essentially saying pay them, or we’ll kill your kids...

Add the above to recent reports of the NATO ‘military Schengen’ which I recently covered, and we get a clear picture of the slow attempt to move Europe onto a war footing, with the attendant infrastructural revampments.

...

So, according to them, [Kiev] even if the funding were to have processed this month, they wouldn’t get the first major deliveries until March and April. So now imagine what happens if it’s true that the funding is dead for this year. Congress won’t come back from recess until January and their docket will be full. They won’t have opportunity to begin even attempting to vote on Ukraine again until well into Jan or even February.

If they happen to reach some agreement, major equipment may not arrive until April, May, or even later. Ukraine may be in a complete deadzone for months from this point forward, and that’s on top of a potentially hellacious winter campaign of infrastructural strikes Russia plans to carry out.

Lloyd Austin, Biden, and co., have dialed up the fearporn precisely because they see the above projection and know what it entails. So they’ve resorted to trying to scare the pants off the GOP congressmen to ram through that aid, but it seems the cheap tactic didn’t work.

That’s not to mention the fact that Russia is now advancing on every single front, with breakthroughs everywhere ...

MUCH MORE AT https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/establishment-alarmism-in-overdriv
e

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Monday, December 11, 2023 8:53 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

What? He means that after almost 70 YEARS of Germany in NATO, they're JUST NOW getting around to the idea of fighting a defensive war???

WTF have they been doing all these years???
And maybe if they'd been more on the defense and less about World Domination and Global Hegemony, they wouldn't be in the pickle they are now.

They have got to be the stupidest bunch of sychophants ever!
That whole generation of "leadership" needs to be replaced. Just vote 'em out en masse, never to return.

Russia wants to roll back NATO to the boundaries that existed when Germany was unified and the west promised "not one inch eastward". But once Ukraine has been neutralized... literally... I believe Russia's next immediate targets are those AMERICAN MISSILE BASES in Poland and Romania. I see no way for Russia to address those concerns without directly confronting NATO.

BUT. Russia has been VERY CLEAR what its concerns are: Border and "near abroad" security. It's not like Berlin or Paris or Italy are going to be invaded.

I wish our collective neocon fuckers would get a gorram clue about the real world and start behaving rationally about it.

Politicians who are farsighted don't get elected. Nearsighted? Perfect for the average voter.

Come to think of it, that preference for short-sightedness is why families stumble from one unanticipated crisis to the next perfectly predictable crisis that could have been quickly and easily handled before it became a crisis but wasn't because they didn't think ahead.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, December 11, 2023 11:30 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Where the Russia-Ukraine war is headed in 2024

by Mark Temnycky | 12/11/23 8:00 AM ET

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4350387-where-the-russia-ukr
aine-war-is-headed-in-2024/

To date, the U.S. has provided more than $46 billion in defense assistance to Ukraine and sent more than $26 billion in financial and humanitarian aid. The slow pace at arming Ukraine was alarming, and it may have prolonged the war. Delays in assistance gave the Russians time to fortify their positions in southern and eastern Ukraine.

The European Union provided Ukraine with more than 30 billion euros in financial and humanitarian assistance. The EU also provided nearly 30 billion euros in defense equipment.

According to a Pew Research Center study, European populist groups are on the rise. They are also gaining traction in the U.S. Many of these groups oppose sending aid to Ukraine.

Given that several of Ukraine’s European allies (such as Belgium, Finland, Germany and Romania) will be holding their own local and regional elections next year, this could lead to further trouble. The outcome of these elections will determine the future of additional European aid to Ukraine. Election results during the 2024 elections in the United States will also be crucial to the future of American assistance to this Eastern European state.

Should American and EU public support remain strong for Ukraine, and if American and European leaders can increase the speed at which they provide defense aid to Ukraine, then the Ukrainians will win.

But the U.S. and Europe need to decide if they are determined to help Ukraine finally end the war.

For comparison: Nearly 20 years after the United States’ invasion of Afghanistan, the cost of its global war on terror stands at $8 trillion. That is $8,000 billion vs $72 billion for Ukraine.
https://www.brown.edu/news/2021-09-01/costsofwar

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, December 12, 2023 5:02 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Is Putin Winning In Ukraine? Fiona Hill Says, 'He's About To. And It's on Us.'

We’ll Be at Each Others’ Throats’: Fiona Hill on What Happens If Putin Wins

The veteran Russia watcher is deeply alarmed as Washington reaches an inflection point on the war in Ukraine.

By Maura Reynolds | 12/12/2023, 11:43 AM EST

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/12/fiona-hill-ukraine-p
utin-00131285

When we spoke this week, she made clear that the decision of whether Ukraine wins or loses is now on us — almost entirely. As Congress debates how much more money to authorize for Ukraine’s assistance amid growing Republican opposition, she says that what we are really debating is our own future. Do we want to live in the kind of world that will result if Ukraine loses?

Hill is clear about her answer. A world in which Putin chalks up a win in Ukraine is one where the U.S.’s standing in the world is diminished, where Iran and North Korea are emboldened, where China dominates the Indo-Pacific, where the Middle East becomes more unstable and where nuclear proliferation takes off, among allies as well as enemies.

“Ukraine has become a battlefield now for America and America’s own future — whether we see it or not — for our own defensive posture and preparedness, for our reputation and our leadership,” she told me. “For Putin, Ukraine is a proxy war against the United States, to remove the United States from the world stage.”

Hill sees U.S. domestic politics as the main obstacle to Ukraine’s ability to win. She has long warned, including in a book published after she left the White House, that high levels of partisanship in the United States promote authoritarianism both at home and around the world. She’s been talking to some lawmakers about Ukraine, and she’s worried that their partisanship has blinded them to the dangers the country faces if Putin gets his way.

“The problem is that many members of Congress don’t want to see President Biden win on any front,” she said. “People are incapable now of separating off ‘giving Biden a win’ from actually allowing Ukraine to win. They are thinking less about U.S. national security, European security, international security and foreign policy, and much more about how they can humiliate Biden.”

“In that regard,” she continued, “whether they like it or not, members of Congress are doing exactly the same thing as Vladimir Putin. They hate that. They want to refute that. But Vladimir Putin wants Biden to lose, and they want Biden to be seen to lose as well.”

Much more at https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/12/fiona-hill-ukraine-p
utin-00131285

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, December 12, 2023 10:40 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Where the Russia-Ukraine war is headed in 2024

by Mark Temnycky | 12/11/23 8:00 AM ET

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4350387-where-the-russia-ukr
aine-war-is-headed-in-2024/

Alexander Mercouris mentioned that Russian Ambassador- at - large (don't recall his name) just said that Russia isn't going to negotiate with Ukraine. Assuming he's serious, that means Russia will lay down terms of surrender and Ukraine will comply.

He said they'd negotiate with the USA.

Again, if true, how does Russia intend to pressure the USA? Or does it just intend to kick the props out from under us ... petrodollar, political support, world trade ... and watch us crumble, and THEN get back to us?

Quote:
For comparison: Nearly 20 years after the United States’ invasion of Afghanistan, the cost of its global war on terror stands at $8 trillion. That is $8,000 billion vs $72 billion for Ukraine.
https://www.brown.edu/news/2021-09-01/costsofwar

War on Terror was a monstrous, hypocritical waste of money on behalf of Israel. Ukraine is another waste of money. We sure know how to waste money!

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Wednesday, December 13, 2023 6:25 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Again, if true, how does Russia intend to pressure the USA? Or does it just intend to kick the props out from under us ... petrodollar, political support, world trade ... and watch us crumble, and THEN get back to us?

Quote:
For comparison: Nearly 20 years after the United States’ invasion of Afghanistan, the cost of its global war on terror stands at $8 trillion. That is $8,000 billion vs $72 billion for Ukraine.
https://www.brown.edu/news/2021-09-01/costsofwar

War on Terror was a monstrous, hypocritical waste of money on behalf of Israel. Ukraine is another waste of money. We sure know how to waste money!

The War on Terror was Bush/Cheney/Donald Rumsfeld's quest to stay in the White House despite failing, again and again, to find Osama bin Laden. Since they couldn't find one man, they cranked up The War on Terror as a distraction. I wonder who found bin Laden? You don't hear about him much, anymore.

The war in Ukraine is also about one man, Putin, since the invasion was his pet project. I wonder what will happen to him? Signym, do not repeat Russian talking points. Those are to shift focus away from Putin's total culpability for starting an arbitrary war based on his capriciousness and his need to be remembered as the next Peter the Great/Catherine the Great. I hope that another Prigozhin comes along, but this time goes all the way and makes Putin just another plot twist in history like bin Laden.

The Wagner uprising: 24 hours that shook Russia
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/25/prigozhins-march-on-mosc
ow-chronology-of-an-attempted-coup
Last Thursday Yevgeny Prigozhin let rip on his favourite subject: the incompetence and vanity of Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu. Seated in front of a Wagner flag and sipping from a mug of tea, he called his bitter enemy a scumbag. Shoigu was a craven PR man and oligarch who had never held a weapon in his life, he raged.

The defence ministry had duped Vladimir Putin into last year’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Prigozhin added. The decision had nothing to do with “denazification” or “demilitarisation”, or an imminent Nato attack on Russia – the official reasons for the war. It was all about Shoigu’s wish for a second “hero of Russia” medal, he claimed.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, December 13, 2023 6:29 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

US intelligence reportedly assessed that Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in fall 2023 and through the upcoming winter aim to weaken Western support for Ukraine instead of achieving any immediate operational objectives.

The US intelligence community reportedly shared a declassified intelligence assessment with Congress on December 12 wherein US intelligence assessed that Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine aim to weaken Western support for Ukraine but have only resulted in heavy Russian losses and no operationally significant Russian battlefield gains.[1] This assessment of high Russian losses and lack of operationally significant Russian gains is consistent with ISW’s assessment. US National Security Council Spokesperson Andrienne Watson reportedly stated that Russian forces have suffered more than 13,000 casualties and lost 220 combat vehicles along the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka axis (Avdiivka direction through western Donetsk Oblast) since launching offensive operations in October 2023.[2] Watson added that Russia appears to believe that a military “deadlock” through the winter will drain Western support for Ukraine and give Russian forces the advantage despite high Russian losses and persistent Russian shortages of trained personnel, munitions, and equipment.[3] ISW has assessed that Russian forces have been trying to regain the theater-level initiative in Ukraine since at least mid-November 2023 and have now likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season in an effort to seize and retain the initiative.[4]

Russian forces may be conducting costly offensive operations at a time unfavorable for ground maneuver to time the potential shift in battlefield initiative with ongoing conversations in the West about continued support to Ukraine. Russian forces launched a large offensive effort to capture Avdiivka on October 10 and subsequently intensified localized offensive operations elsewhere in eastern Ukraine while Ukrainian forces started to scale back counteroffensive operations on their own accord.[5] The Russian military command decided against waiting to prepare for offensive efforts later this winter or in spring 2024 following the decreased tempo of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, as they had done between the successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in summer and fall 2022 and the failed Russian winter-spring 2023 offensive.[6] The Russian military command’s decision to launch offensive efforts in fall 2023 may have been an opportunistic reaction to a perceived wavering of Western support for Ukraine. The increased Western discussions about continuing military assistance to Ukraine following the relatively successful Russian defensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast was predictable and may have factored into the Russian command’s calculations. The Kremlin has been orchestrating long running information operations aimed at deterring Western security assistance to Ukraine, and the Russian command may have determined that those information operations were yielding increasing returns and that Russian military efforts to seize the initiative could prompt further Western debates about aid to Ukraine.[7]

Russian forces have routinely conducted military operations in Ukraine aimed at shaping Western behavior instead of achieving operational battlefield objectives, and the US intelligence assessment that ongoing Russian offensive operations do not have an immediate operational military objective is entirely plausible.[8] Russian forces have yet to seize the initiative throughout Ukraine, but Russian forces may attempt to pursue an immediate operational objective if they do seize the initiative. The Russian military command has also reportedly conducted offensive operations with domestic political goals in mind, and internal Kremlin dynamics may be influencing Russian military decisions about ongoing Russian offensive operations.[9] ISW is not offering an assessment of the primary intent of ongoing Russian offensive operations at this time but concurs with the US intelligence community assessment that Russia has absorbed very high losses without making operationally significant gains or setting conditions to make such gains.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-december-12-2023

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, December 13, 2023 2:52 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Again, if true, how does Russia intend to pressure the USA? Or does it just intend to kick the props out from under us ... petrodollar, political support, world trade ... and watch us crumble, and THEN get back to us?

SECOND: For comparison: Nearly 20 years after the United States’ invasion of Afghanistan, the cost of its global war on terror stands at $8 trillion. That is $8,000 billion vs $72 billion for Ukraine.
https://www.brown.edu/news/2021-09-01/costsofwar

SIGNY: War on Terror was a monstrous, hypocritical waste of money on behalf of Israel. Ukraine is another waste of money. We sure know how to waste money!

SECOND: The War on Terror was Bush/Cheney/Donald Rumsfeld's quest to stay in the White House despite failing, again and again, to find Osama bin Laden.

You have a child's view of the world.

Call me a Russian troll ... Im sure you will! ... but I can't help but draw straight line between certain facts:

Our various admins and think tanks were and still are dominated by Jewish Zionisrs and neocons. They openly called for the destruction of Syria, Iraq, and Iran LONG before 9_11 and the Bush "GWOT."

All of these plans for invasion and nation-destruction were made YEARS before 9-11 AND CONTINUE TO THIS DAY.

And I can't help but draw a straight line between PNAC's call for "a new Pearl Harbor" and its "fortuitous" occurrence three years later. Also, please note: the so-called "Patriot Act" was also written before 9-11.

CHENEY NEOCONS AND ZIONIST AGENTS

The Cheney/ Bush admin was especially full.
Quote:
The link between active promoters of Israeli interests and policymaking circles is stronger by several orders of magnitude in the Bush administration, which is peppered with people who have long records of activism on behalf of Israel in the United States, of policy advocacy in Israel, and of promoting an agenda for Israel often at odds with existing U.S. policy. ... Dual loyalties. `The issue we are dealing with in the Bush administration is dual loyalties

https://www.counterpunch.org/2004/09/06/the-bush-neocons-and-israel/

They included
Rumsfeld, Sec Def
Bolton, State Dept
Wolfowitz, Sec Def
Wurmser, ME Advisor to Dick Cheney and Special Asst to John Bolton
Feith, Undersec Def
Perle, Asst Sec Def

A CLEAN BREAK

"A Clean Break" was foreign policy paper written for the Israeli Netanyahu Government by RICHARD PERLE. "The main substantive ideas in this paper emerge from a discussion in which prominent opinion makers, including Richard Perle, James Colbert, Charles Fairbanks, Jr., Douglas Feith, Robert Loewenberg, David Wurmser, and Meyrav Wurmser participated". http://www.dougfeith.com/docs/Clean_Break.pdf

Quote:
A Clean Break” slated Saddam Hussein’s Iraq as first up for regime change. This is highly significant, especially since several members of the Clean Break study group played decisive roles in steering and deceiving the United States into invading Iraq and overthrowing Saddam seven years later.

The Clean Break study group’s leader, Richard Perle, led the call for Iraqi regime change beginning in the 90s from his perch at the Project for a New American Century and other neocon think tanks. And while serving as chairman of a high level Pentagon advisory committee, Perle helped coordinate the neoconservative takeover of foreign policy in the Bush administration and the final push for war in Iraq.

Another Clean Breaker, Douglas Feith, was a Perle protege and a key player in that neocon coup. After 9/11, as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Feith created two secret Pentagon offices tasked with cherry-picking, distorting, and repackaging CIA and Pentagon intelligence to help make the case for war.

Feith’s “Office of Special Plans” manipulated intelligence to promote the falsehood that Saddam had a secret weapons of mass destruction program that posed an imminent chemical, biological, and even nuclear threat. This lie was the main justification used by the Bush administration for the Iraq War.

Feith’s “Counter Terrorism Evaluation Group” trawled through the CIA’s intelligence trash to stitch together far-fetched conspiracy theories linking Saddam Hussein’s Iraq with Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda, among other bizarre pairings. Perle put the Group into contact with Ahmed Chalabi, a dodgy anti-Saddam Iraqi exile who would spin even more yarn of the sort

Much of the Group’s grunt work was performed by David Wurmser, another Perle protege and the primary author of “A Clean Break.” Wurmser would go on to serve as an advisor to two key Iraq War proponents in the Bush administration: John Bolton at the State Department and Vice President Dick Cheney.

https://newsrescue.com/history-neocon-clean-break-document-grand-desig
n-behind-destruction-middle-east/

PROJECT FOR A NEW AMERICAN CENTURY (PNAC)

Think tank run by an overlapping group of neocons,
Quote:
Perle is one of the founders of the Project for the New American Century, the PNAC. Other founders include Dick Cheney, now vice-president, Donald Rumsfeld, defence secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, deputy defence secretary, I Lewis Libby, Cheney's chief of staff, William J Bennett, Reagan's education secretary, and Zalmay Khalilzad
On the morning of 12 September 2001, without any evidence of who the hijackers were, Rumsfeld demanded that the US attack Iraq...

https://www.globalissues.org/article/397/a-new-pearl-harbor

PNAC founders William Kristol and Robert Kagan. Kagan (Jewish) is husband to Victoria Nuland (Jewish), one of the driving forces of Project Ukraine.

Quote:
The war in Ukraine is also about one man, Putin,

Yeah, sure.
Project Ukraine has been in the works since 2007.
You are astonishingly stupid, SECOND.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Wednesday, December 13, 2023 2:59 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
You have a child's view of the world.

That's because he's a man child living in his mother's basement.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Thursday, December 14, 2023 6:26 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Kremlin appears to be returning to expansionist rhetoric last observed before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in an effort to resurface its claims that Ukraine is part of historically Russian territory and discuss the borders Russian leaders regard as appropriate for a rump Ukrainian state.

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev misrepresented US President Joe Biden’s response to a media question about whether the United States’ policy is to win the war or help Ukraine to defend itself during a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on December 12.[1] . . .

Medvedev routinely and deliberately makes outlandish statements, but the timing of these statements and focus on the idea that Ukraine could exist only as a rump state within the territory of Lviv Oblast is consistent with earlier indicators that the Kremlin is returning to its domestic framing that Russia is fighting the war to “liberate its historic lands.” Medvedev’s comments follow shortly after Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova’s December 9 interview with AFP, which had likely marked an official rhetorical shift in the Kremlin’s framing of the war.[4] Zakharova reiterated the Kremlin’s maximalist demands for full Ukrainian political capitulation and Kyiv’s acceptance of Russia’s military terms and introduced a vague prerequisite that Ukraine must withdraw its troops from “Russian territory” to resolve the war. ISW assessed at the time that Zakharova was likely referring to the illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions – which are not fully under Russia’s occupation.[5] Zakharova’s statement, however, may have been purposely vague to allow Russia the freedom to define what it deems to be “Russian territories.” Medvedev‘s and Zakharova’s comments closely parallel Russia’s long-standing information operation that Ukraine could be partitioned into Russian-controlled “Malorossiya” (most of Ukraine) and a small rump Polish-controlled western Ukraine.[6] ISW observed Russian propagandists intensify this information operation in the lead-up to the full-scale invasion and its notable decrease from then until now.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-december-13-2023

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, December 14, 2023 7:26 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

There is a Path to Victory in Ukraine
The Delusions and Dangers of Defeatist Voices in the West

By Dmytro Kuleba | December 14, 2023

It was almost two years ago that Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As another winter of war arrives, voices skeptical of the country’s prospects are growing louder — not in diplomatic meetings or military planning sessions, but rather in news reports and in expert commentary. Most do not openly argue that Ukraine should simply give up its fight, but the pessimism, buttressed by supposedly pragmatic arguments, carries clear strategic implications that are both dangerous and wrong.

These skeptics suggest that the current situation on the battlefield will not change and that, given Russia’s vastly greater resources, the Ukrainians will be unable to retake more of their territory. They argue that international support for Ukraine is eroding and will plummet sharply in the coming months. They invoke “war fatigue” and the supposedly bleak prospects of our forces.

The skeptics are correct that our recent counteroffensive did not achieve the lightning-fast liberation of occupied land, as the Ukrainian military managed in the fall of 2022 in the Kharkiv region and the city of Kherson. Observers, including some in Ukraine, anticipated similar results over the past several months, and when immediate success did not materialize, many succumbed to doom and gloom. But pessimism is unwarranted, and it would be a mistake to let defeatism shape our policy decisions going forward. Instead, policymakers in Washington and other capitals should keep the big picture in mind and stay on track. A Ukrainian victory will require strategic endurance and vision — as with our recent counteroffensive, the liberation of every square meter of territory requires enormous sacrifice by our soldiers — but there is no question that victory is attainable.

Over nearly two years of brutal war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has upped the ante to the point that half-solutions are impossible. Any outcome besides a clear defeat of Russia in Ukraine would have troubling implications, and not just for my country — it would cause a global disarray that would ultimately threaten the United States and its allies as well. Authoritarian leaders and aggressors around the world are keeping a close watch on the results of Putin’s military adventure. His success, even if partial, would inspire them to follow in his footsteps. His defeat will make clear the folly of trying.

STAGES OF VICTORY

Wars of this scale are fought in stages. Some of those stages may be more successful than others. What matters is the end result. In Ukraine, that means both fully restoring our territorial integrity and bringing those responsible for international crimes to justice — goals that are both clear and feasible. Meeting those objectives would ensure not only a just and lasting peace in Ukraine but also that other malicious forces around the world are not left with the impression that mimicking Putin will ultimately pay off.

The current phase of the war is not easy for Ukraine or for our partners. Everyone wants quick, Hollywood-style breakthroughs on the battlefield that will bring a quick collapse of Russia’s occupation. Although our objectives will not be reached overnight, continued international support for Ukraine will, over time, ensure that local counteroffensives achieve tangible results on the frontlines, gradually destroying Russian forces and thwarting Putin’s plans for a protracted war.

Some skeptics counter that although such goals are just, they simply aren’t achievable. In fact, our objectives will remain militarily feasible as long as three factors are in place: adequate military aid, including jets, drones, air defense, artillery rounds, and long-range capabilities that allow us to strike deep behind enemy lines; the rapid development of industrial capacity in the United States and Europe as well as in Ukraine, both to cover Ukraine’s military needs and to replenish U.S. and European defense stocks; and a principled and realistic approach to the prospect of negotiations with Russia.

With these elements in place, our effort will bring marked progress on the frontlines. Yet that requires not veering off course and concluding that the fight is hopeless simply because one stage has fallen short of some observers’ expectations. Even with significant challenges, Ukraine has achieved notable results in recent months. We won the battle for the Black Sea and thereby restored a steady flow of maritime exports, benefiting both our economy and global food security. We’ve made gains on the southern front, recently securing a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. And elsewhere, we have held off enormous Russian assaults and inflicted major losses on Russian forces, including by thwarting their attempts on Avdiivka and Kupiansk. Despite their gargantuan effort, Russian troops failed to secure any gains on the ground.

Indeed, over the last year and a half, the Ukrainian military has proved its ability to surprise skeptics. Against all odds, Ukrainian forces have liberated more than half of the territory taken by Russia since February 2022. This did not happen with a single blow. After the liberation of Ukraine's northeast in the first months of the war, we lost some ground in the east before regaining momentum — a sequence that demonstrates why drawing broad conclusions based on one stage of fighting is misleading. If the war were only about numbers, we would have already lost. Russia may try to outnumber us, but the right strategy, advanced planning, and adequate support will allow us to effectively strike back.

THE FALLACY OF NEGOTIATIONS

Some analysts believe that freezing the conflict by establishing a cease-fire is a realistic option at the moment. Proponents of such a scenario argue that it would lower Ukrainian casualties and allow Ukraine and its partners to focus on economic recovery and rebuilding, integration into the European Union and NATO, and the long-term development of our defense capabilities.

The problem is not just that a cease-fire now would reward Russian aggression. Instead of ending the war, a cease-fire would simply pause the fighting until Russia is ready to make another push inland. In the meantime, it would allow Russian occupying troops to reinforce their positions with concrete and minefields, making it nearly impossible to drive them away in the future and condemning millions of Ukrainians to decades of repression under occupation. Russia's 2024 budget for the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, amounting to 3.2 trillion Russian rubles (around $35 billion), is clear evidence of Moscow’s plan to dig in for the long haul and suppress resistance to Russian occupation authorities.

Moreover, whatever the arguments that such a scenario would be less costly for Ukraine and its partners, the reality is that such a negotiated cease-fire is not even on the table. Between 2014 and 2022, we endured approximately 200 rounds of negotiations with Russia in various formats as well as 20 attempts to establish a cease-fire in the smaller war that followed Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea and occupation of Ukraine’s east. Our partners pressed Moscow to be constructive, and when they ran into the Kremlin’s diplomatic wall, they insisted that Ukraine had to take the “first step,” if only to demonstrate that Russia was the problem. Following this flawed logic, Ukraine made some painful concessions. Where did it lead? To Russia's full-scale attack on February 24, 2022. Declaring yet again that Ukraine must take the first step is both immoral and naïve.

If the frontline were frozen now, there is no reason to believe that Russia would not use such a respite to plan a more brutal attack in a few years, potentially involving not only Ukraine but also neighboring countries and even NATO members. Those who believe Russia will not attack a NATO country after celebrating success in Ukraine should recall how unimaginable a large-scale invasion of Ukraine seemed just two years ago.

SUPPORTING UKRAINE IS NOT CHARITY

Skeptics also argue that supporting Ukraine's fight for freedom is too expensive and cannot be sustained indefinitely. We in Ukraine are fully aware of the amounts of assistance that we have received from the United States, European countries, and other allies, and we are immensely grateful to the governments, legislators, and individuals who have extended a helping hand to our country at war. We manage the support in the most transparent and accountable way: U.S. inspectors of military aid to Ukraine have found no evidence of significant waste, fraud, or abuse.

This support is not, and never has been, charity. Every dollar invested in Ukraine’s defense returns clear security dividends for its supporters. It has enabled Ukraine to successfully rebuff Russian aggression and avert a disastrous escalation in Europe. And Ukraine has done all this with American assistance totaling roughly 3 percent of the annual U.S. defense budget. What’s more, most of this money has in fact been spent in the United States, funding the U.S. defense industry, supporting the development of cutting-edge technology, and creating American jobs — a reason that some local business leaders in the United States have publicly opposed withholding or cutting military aid to Ukraine.

Moreover, while the United States is Ukraine’s top defense partner — and Washington’s leadership in rallying support for Ukraine has been exemplary and essential — the United States has hardly borne the burden alone. As NATO’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, recently noted, other NATO members, including European countries and Canada, account for more than half of Ukraine's military aid. A number of countries have provided more support as a percentage of GDP than the United States has: the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Slovakia, and the United Kingdom. Germany's assistance continues to grow, making it Ukraine's largest European supporter in absolute terms.

Every dollar invested in Ukraine’s defense returns clear security dividends for its supporters.

Attempts by some skeptics to brand Ukraine’s fight for freedom as just another futile “forever war” ignore these facts. Ukraine has never asked for American boots on the ground. The deal is fair: our partners provide us with what we need to win, and we do the rest of the job ourselves, defending not only our borders but also the borders of global democracy.

The United States has spent decades, and hundreds of billions of dollars, building and protecting an international order that could sustain and protect democracy and market economies, thus ensuring security and prosperity for Americans. It would be foolish to give up on that investment now. If democracy is allowed to fall in Ukraine, adversaries of the United States will perceive weakness and understand that aggression pays. The price tag for defending U.S. national security against such threats would be many times higher than the one for supporting Ukraine and could spark decades of global turbulence with an uncertain outcome.

Scholars and analysts often warn of a World War III involving nuclear conflict between great powers. But they may overlook the risk of a world of smaller hot wars between states, with bigger powers feeling empowered to take advantage of their smaller neighbors — World Wars I, plural, rather than World War III. Without a common commitment to Ukrainian victory, Russian aggression could in hindsight mark the onset of such a world.

LISTEN TO UKRAINIANS

No country in the world desires peace more than Ukraine. It is not our side that wants this war to drag on indefinitely — Putin does. (We have a clear vision of the path to peace, as laid out in President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ten-point Peace Formula.) And it is Ukraine that is paying the greatest price for this war. We are losing some of our best men and women every day. There is hardly a Ukrainian family that has not directly felt the pain of war. Our warriors have in many cases been serving for more than 20 months, stuck in muddy or icy trenches under daily Russian bombardment, with no return date in sight; the toll on civilians, whether enduring brutal air strikes or occupation, keeps growing, and the horror of Ukrainian children being stolen and then “adopted” by Russian families for “re-education” continues to haunt us all.

Yet even with our suffering, weariness, and struggles, Ukrainians are not willing to give up, to opt for “peace” at any price. Eighty percent of Ukrainians oppose making territorial concessions to Russia, according to a recent survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Another poll found that 53 percent of Ukrainians were prepared to endure years of wartime hardship for the sake of a Ukrainian victory. Ukrainians would not be ready to give up even in the event of a significant decrease in foreign military aid: polling in November by the New Europe Center showed that only eight percent of Ukrainians think that such a reduction should push us into negotiations with Russia. (Thirty-five percent said that a Russian willingness to withdraw troops from Ukraine would be the necessary condition for starting talks, and 33 percent said that under no conditions should talks begin at all.)

Western analysts who urge Ukraine to accept a hasty cease-fire on unfavorable terms neglect such views. For years, policymakers and experts in Europe and the United States failed to listen to Ukrainian warnings that both diplomacy and business as usual with Russia were no longer possible. It took a large-scale invasion and enormous destruction and suffering for them to recognize that the Ukrainian warnings were right. They should not fall into the same trap again.

ALLIES AT WAR

In the summer of 1944, in the weeks after the World War II Allies’ D-Day landing, the headlines in allied capitals were often pessimistic: “Allied Pace Slows,” “Delays in Normandy: Overcaution of Allies and Bad Weather Seen as Factors Upsetting Schedule,” “Terrain Slows Tanks, U.S. Officer Explains.” Even after Allied success in Normandy, the massive Operation Market Garden in the German-occupied Netherlands in September 1944 proved challenging. It had been expected to bring the war to a close but instead yielded limited successes and massive Allied losses. Yet pessimistic headlines and disappointing, even costly, setbacks did not cause the Allies to give up.

At the end of last month, I attended a NATO ministerial meeting in Brussels. What struck me most was the disparity between the mood inside the chamber and the mood outside it. On the sidelines, reporters opened their questions by asserting that the war had reached a “stalemate” and that “war fatigue” would cripple support, before wondering why Ukraine wouldn’t offer to trade territory for peace. Yet such defeatist narratives were absent in the official discussions, with ministers making a firm commitment to additional military aid and sustained support.

However prevalent a false narrative of attrition becomes, we should not allow it to set policymaking and our shared strategy on a disastrous course. Nor should we be duped into believing that Moscow is ready for a fair negotiated solution. Opting to accept Putin’s territorial demands and reward his aggression would be an admission of failure, which would be costly for Ukraine, for the United States and its allies, and for the entire global security architecture. Staying the course is a difficult task. But we know how to win, and we will.

DMYTRO KULEBA is Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, December 14, 2023 9:30 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
There is a Path to Victory in Ukraine
The Delusions and Dangers of Defeatist Voices in the West

By Dmytro Kuleba | December 14, 2023

It was almost two years ago that Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

And here we are, still talking about the war that nobody cares about.

Sure. Let's send them another $150 Billion, Joe*.

Fuck Ukraine.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Thursday, December 14, 2023 9:56 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
There is a Path to Victory in Ukraine
The Delusions and Dangers of Defeatist Voices in the West

By Dmytro Kuleba | December 14, 2023

It was almost two years ago that Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

And here we are, still talking about the war that nobody cares about.

Sure. Let's send them another $150 Billion, Joe*.

Fuck Ukraine.

I understand your position since you can't afford to fix your house because wood is outrageously expensive. You can't pay your taxes, either, but fortunately, you don't have any income to tax. Meanwhile, Biden is sending the equivalent of 3% of the Pentagon's budget to Ukraine so that the other 97% isn't another year of complete waste with nothing to show for it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, December 14, 2023 3:39 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Possessed
By Viktor Erofeyev | March 29, 2001 issue

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2001/03/29/the-possessed/

Rasputin slumbers in the heart of every Russian. But sometimes he doesn’t slumber. If you awaken the Rasputin in yourself, life suddenly overflows its banks: you begin to experience a fierce, incomparable joy from being in a state of outrageousness, dissipation, restlessness, suffering, and desecration. “Violence is the soul’s joy,” Rasputin taught. I may defame him, hate his blissful face; I may dream of putting out those piercing, infernal, heavenly eyes, cutting him into little pieces, drowning him in the acid of obscenities — but he is my man. Blood kin. Rasputin wears the ancient mask of the shaman.

I have no doubt that Rasputin slumbered in the heart of Edvard Radzinsky as well. Radzinsky, a well-known Russian playwright and biographer, awakened him by writing a book about him. He admits that he used to be afraid to write about Rasputin because he didn’t understand him, and here anyone who has tried to consider the subject will sympathize. Moreover, having read his book, which is based on previously unknown documentary testimony, I think that Radzinsky still doesn’t understand him. He doesn’t want to. Because to really understand Rasputin is too frightening. It’s better not to understand him at all. Otherwise you are faced with the great abyss that separates Russia from normal, civilized countries — and what can you do about it? At any rate, the very existence of Rasputin gives some grounds for saying that deep down Russia has nothing in common with the West.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, December 14, 2023 6:06 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
There is a Path to Victory in Ukraine
The Delusions and Dangers of Defeatist Voices in the West

By Dmytro Kuleba | December 14, 2023

It was almost two years ago that Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

And here we are, still talking about the war that nobody cares about.

Sure. Let's send them another $150 Billion, Joe*.

Fuck Ukraine.
I understand your position since you can't afford to fix your house because wood is outrageously expensive.

Yes. Wood is outrageously expensive because of Bidenflation.

I can afford it. I choose not to pay that much for it. I haven't worked in 4 1/2 years and I've got plenty of money left because I never buy anything on credit and I bide my time and wait for the sale or clearance. That's how I got $2,000 of pre-Bidenflation baseboard and trim to do my entire house for $125.

It will get done. Just not at this price.

Quote:
You can't pay your taxes, either, but fortunately, you don't have any income to tax.

Sure I can. I just wasn't going to pay more than my share and I got them to drop my property taxes by nearly $800 per year, and that will be every year going forward too.

Funny though... They didn't get around to filing the paperwork on time so I had to pay their full amount and I won't be reimbursed until about 2 months before the next bill is due. But the point is I had the money to pay for it.

And you're right. I don't have any income tax.

How was work today, bitch?

Quote:
Meanwhile, Biden is sending the equivalent of 3% of the Pentagon's budget to Ukraine so that the other 97% isn't another year of complete waste with nothing to show for it.

$150 Billion.

I lived on $7,000 this year.

If everybody knew how to use money like I do, 21,428,571 Americans could have paid for everything they needed to live off of that money sent to Ukraine.

Or... I could have lived 21,428,571 years off of that money.

We've had 3 years of nothing to show for anything under the Biden* Administration. Including Ukraine not winning a war that it's never going to win.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Thursday, December 14, 2023 9:36 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Trump can't screw up even if Putin blackmails him, again:

Lawmakers pass bill that makes it all but impossible for Trump to leave NATO | December 14, 2023

Business Insider reports:
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nato-withdraw-congress-defense-b
ill-2023-12

A brief provision in the massive $886 billion bill funding the Pentagon will likely kill former President Donald Trump or any potential future president’s ambitions to withdraw the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Sens. Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat, and Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican, teamed up to muscle their bill — which would require an act of Congress or Senate approval to leave NATO — into what is often deemed a must-pass bill that funds servicemembers and outlines national security priorities. President Joe Biden is expected to sign the legislation into law. The Senate passed the overall legislation 87 to 13. The House passed it on Friday on a 310-118 vote.

“The Senate’s vote today to pass my bipartisan bill to prevent any U.S. President from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO reaffirms U.S. support for this crucial alliance that is foundational for our national security,” Kaine said in a statement after the Pentagon funding bill passed the Senate. “It also sends a strong message to authoritarians around the world that the free world remains united.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, December 14, 2023 10:47 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
originally posted by second:

There is a Path to Victory in Ukraine [thru Crimea]
- Kuleba

The Possessed
By Viktor Erofeyev

Oh eeeeeww!

Nothing stinks as bad as spoiled propaganda.
What are we going to read next (AGAIN)?
Russia's running out of weapons?
80% of their military has been destroyed?
Poorly-trained, badly led unmotivated orcs in (semi) "human wave" attacks?
Russia's economy "in tatters"?

Throw out that stinky fish!

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Thursday, December 14, 2023 10:53 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

SECOND describes himself as an old rich oil baron, but he posts like a spoiled brat who hasn't done a damn in his life. Living off a his daddy's money in his momma's basement. All fucked up in the head.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Thursday, December 14, 2023 11:18 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Accepting Defeat In Ukraine

In early November the Economist published an interview and several pieces by the commander in chief of the Ukrainian army, General Zaluzny. As I summarized:

Zaluzny's central thesis is that the war is currently at a stalemate. It has become positional, with no large maneuvers being possible. He compares it to the war in Europe in 1917. There, he says, a change only happened through the introduction of new technologies (i.e. tanks).
...
I for one think that Zaluzny is mistaken. The war is not at a stalemate. Russia has clearly the advantage as it is free to maneuver along the whole frontline and to attack wherever it likes. It does not do so in full force because the current situation allows it to conveniently fulfill the order its commander in chief had given to it - to destroy the military capabilities of Ukraine.

Finally a western mainstream writer has caught up with those facts. Lee Hockstader, the Washington Post's columnist for European affairs, opines:

In Ukraine, the risk isn’t stalemate. It’s defeat.

Hockstader laments the lack of support from the U.S. and Europe for the new demands the Ukraine is making. He states:

Without those infusions of cash, arms and munitions, even the disappointing status quo over the past year, in which Ukraine has not managed to recapture much territory, is unlikely to endure.

Andriy Yermak, a top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told a Washington forum last week that the “big risk” is that Kyiv’s troops could “lose this war.”

That message should jolt policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic. The danger, as Ukraine’s top general warned publicly last month, isn’t simply stalemate. It is that Ukrainian forces, running low on equipment, might be compelled to fall back, shorten their defensive lines and abandon territory.
...
It’s essential to think about what Ukraine’s defeat means, because it would be as much a strategic disaster for the United States and its NATO allies as a tableau of terror for Ukraine. Dual cataclysms, equally stark, played out on different timetables.

Well, yes. The West has shot its wad and it proved to be sterile.

MORE AT https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/12/accepting-defeat-in-ukraine.html
#more

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Thursday, December 14, 2023 11:26 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Putin doubles down on war in Ukraine. ‘Victory will be ours.’

“There will be peace when we will achieve our goals,” President Vladimir Putin said concerning the Ukraine war. At an end-of-year conference on Dec. 14, the Russian president talked military strategy while reaffirming authority for his reelection campaign.

By Harriet Morris Associated Press | December 14, 2023 | Moscow

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2023/1214/Putin-doubles-down-on
-war-in-Ukraine.-Victory-will-be-ours

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Dec. 14 that there would be no peace in Ukraine until the Kremlin realizes its goals, which remain unchanged after nearly two years of fighting that has sent tensions soaring between Moscow and the West.

Speaking at a year-end news conference that lasted over four hours and offered him an opportunity to reinforce his grip on power, Mr. Putin gave some rare details on what Moscow calls its “special military operation.”

He dismissed the need for a second wave of mobilization of reservists to fight in Ukraine – a move that has been deeply unpopular. He said there are some 617,000 Russian soldiers there, including around 244,000 troops who were called up to fight alongside professional military forces.

“There will be peace when we will achieve our goals,” Mr. Putin said, repeating a frequent Kremlin line. “Victory will be ours.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, December 15, 2023 12:50 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Trump can't screw up even if Putin blackmails him, again:

Lawmakers pass bill that makes it all but impossible for Trump to leave NATO | December 14, 2023

Business Insider reports:
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nato-withdraw-congress-defense-b
ill-2023-12

A brief provision in the massive $886 billion bill funding the Pentagon will likely kill former President Donald Trump or any potential future president’s ambitions to withdraw the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Sens. Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat, and Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican, teamed up to muscle their bill — which would require an act of Congress or Senate approval to leave NATO — into what is often deemed a must-pass bill that funds servicemembers and outlines national security priorities. President Joe Biden is expected to sign the legislation into law. The Senate passed the overall legislation 87 to 13. The House passed it on Friday on a 310-118 vote.

“The Senate’s vote today to pass my bipartisan bill to prevent any U.S. President from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO reaffirms U.S. support for this crucial alliance that is foundational for our national security,” Kaine said in a statement after the Pentagon funding bill passed the Senate. “It also sends a strong message to authoritarians around the world that the free world remains united.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

That's fucking terrible news.

Now we're slaves to NATO.

WTF is wrong with you people. Your TDS is so bad that National Sovereignty means nothing to you?

FUCK NATO.

Trump will get us out of this.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Friday, December 15, 2023 1:58 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

No, we're not slaves to NATO. You know how so many nations are TECHNICALLY part of NATO but don't really put much $ into it?

Trump could be such an unpleasant NATO partner, refusing to pay into it, refusing to station troops , twisting arms so other nations pay their "fair share" they're BEGGING him to leave.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Friday, December 15, 2023 5:44 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

That's fucking terrible news.

Now we're slaves to NATO.

WTF is wrong with you people. Your TDS is so bad that National Sovereignty means nothing to you?

FUCK NATO.

Trump will get us out of this.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

6ix, you are so funny. Or is it paranoid? Or is it stupid? But you are the living proof that Trumptards are angry poor white trash who misunderstand simple things, sometimes partially, often times completely and absurdly. That tendency gets in the way of your prosperity.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, December 15, 2023 5:46 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The High Price of Losing Ukraine

By Frederick W. Kagan, Kateryna Stepanenko, Mitchell Belcher, Noel Mikkelsen, and Thomas Bergeron | Dec 14, 2023

This brief paper evaluates only the narrow question of some of the military-strategic and financial tradeoffs of various possible outcomes of the Russian war in Ukraine. We have considered elsewhere the important question of possible Russian escalations in the face of defeat and we do not minimize those considerations.[10] We have argued strongly that American values align with American interests in Ukraine and that there is a strong and cogent values-based argument for helping Ukraine liberate all its land and its people.[11] We still believe that that is true.

But the American people are being asked to spend a lot of money helping Ukraine fight Russia, and it is not unreasonable for them also wonder what the financial cost of not helping Ukraine would be. This essay is meant solely to serve as a departure point for a data-driven and realistic discussion answering that question.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukrain
e

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, December 15, 2023 5:49 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Putin’s Weak Link to Crimea

Kyiv Should Target the Kerch Bridge — but Needs Missiles to Take It Out

By Ben Hodges, Led Klosky, Robert Person, and Eric Williamson | December 5, 2023

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/putins-weak-link-crimea

When Russia annexed Crimea in February 2014, the peninsula became crucial to Moscow’s strategy to dominate Ukraine and the Black Sea region. Critical to that domination is the bridge spanning the Kerch Strait, the narrow strip of water that separates Crimea from mainland Russia. Built by Moscow at enormous cost, this bridge opened in 2018 to great fanfare. Since then, it has been a major conduit for the transportation of Russian soldiers and arms required for the war in Ukraine.

The bridge is currently under Russian control and is of fundamental importance to the Russian war effort. It may, however, prove to be the key to Ukraine’s victory — not just in Crimea but in the wider conflict. No single event could more quickly turn the tide of the war, reset the narrative, and restore confidence in Kyiv’s ability to win than crippling the most potent symbol of Russia’s occupation of Ukraine.

But destroying the bridge will be a difficult task. It has been expertly constructed to bear heavy traffic. Its size, strength, and durability are such that it has withstood repeated Ukrainian attacks. For Kyiv to succeed in permanently disabling or destroying the bridge, Ukraine’s Western allies must provide far larger numbers of powerful precision-guided missiles. This will be a matter of both quantity and quality: a debilitating attack will necessitate a massive salvo of missiles to overwhelm Russia’s formidable missile defenses in Crimea and strike multiple vulnerabilities on the bridge simultaneously or one critical element repeatedly. Either strategy requires greater numbers of sophisticated missiles, including U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles and German Taurus missiles. Until Ukraine’s allies provide these or similar bunker-busting precision weapons — and lots of them — the bridge is likely to continue serving the Russian war effort.

MOSCOW’S VITAL LINK

Crimea has occupied a central place in Russian grand strategy for centuries, serving as the base from which Moscow projected its influence throughout the Black Sea region, the Mediterranean, and beyond. In 1954, Crimea was “gifted” to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic by Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev, a transfer that made little practical difference as long as Ukraine and Russia were both part of the Soviet Union. But when the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, Crimea went with Ukraine, a fact begrudgingly accepted by Moscow. In 1997, Russia and Ukraine signed a treaty in which Moscow pledged to respect Ukrainian sovereignty over the peninsula in return for securing a long-term lease to the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol. This lease made the Russian base a powerful bargaining chip for Kyiv and a key vulnerability for Moscow’s access to the strategically significant Black Sea region. In 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea, and one of his first acts was to order the construction of a vehicle and rail bridge connecting the peninsula to Russia. Building commenced in February 2016 and was completed just two years later. It cost $4.5 billion.

Since its opening, the bridge has become a political symbol of Moscow’s integration of Crimea into the Russian state — and a potent representation of the Kremlin’s neoimperial aspirations. It is partly a vanity project for Putin, feeding his self-image as a modern-day Tsar Peter the Great, reclaiming Russia’s historical patrimony. It is also a physical manifestation of Moscow’s narrative that unbreakable fraternal bonds exist between Russia and Ukraine, an idea Putin has used to legitimize his invasion.

The bridge’s construction, however, was motivated by more than just symbolism. Russia is estimated to have spent $20 billion annexing and integrating Crimea into its territory, and the bridge’s completion created opportunities for Moscow to recoup those losses. It did so, in part, by enabling the revival of Crimea’s lucrative tourism industry by facilitating easy access for Russians. The bridge also ended the peninsula’s economic and logistical dependence on Ukraine. Before the bridge was built, Kyiv controlled the overland road and rail transportation routes by which most goods, services, utilities, and people moved in and out of Crimea. The bridge’s opening thus addressed a major vulnerability.

But above all, the bridge was constructed for military purposes. In the buildup to the February 2022 invasion, the bridge was the only way that Russia could efficiently supply its Crimean logistics hubs and military bases with weapons, ammunition, equipment, personnel, and medicines. Today, Russia’s occupation of the southern Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia is largely sustained by military forces and supplies transported across the bridge. The loss or effective disruption of this supply route would make it challenging to sustain Russian military operations in Ukraine, especially given the enormous quantities of artillery ammunition required to hold back Ukrainian forces. If Kyiv succeeded in disabling the Crimean bridge, it would dramatically increase the likelihood of a total collapse of Russian defenses in southern Ukraine.

EASIER SAID THAN DONE

It is no surprise, therefore, that the Ukrainian military has repeatedly attacked the bridge. But these attacks have been unsuccessful because of the structure’s design. The bridge consists of twin spans, one carrying a double rail line and the other holding four lanes for cars and trucks, both built in three segments of roughly four miles each. The eastern and western segments of the bridge traverse open water, whereas the central segment is built on a low island in the middle of the strait. The bridge has about 7,000 pilings, vertical steel and concrete columns that penetrate deep beneath the seabed. These pilings support almost 600 massive concrete piers that rise out of the water and bear the weight of the bridge deck and support beams.

In fact, the bridge is neither innovative nor technically complex in design. But its size and strength make it uniquely hard to disable. The eastern and central segments consist of a causeway-type construction that is low and runs close to the water and land. This low-slung construction makes these segments vulnerable to attacks mounted from the sea below. The individual spans along the causeway (the areas between the supporting piers) are just under 200 feet in length. They are the easiest elements of the bridge to damage but also the easiest to repair.

The western segment of the bridge features a single long-span arched section, providing a higher and wider opening for ships to pass underneath. This segment’s supporting piers are protected at the water line from ice and ship collisions by fenders and filled caissons: steel, concrete, and soil structures that prevent direct contact with the piers, providing critical standoff between the bridge and seaborne objects at the water line. These fenders and caissons also defend the massive piers from seaborne attack by presenting a navigational challenge for sea drones attempting to reach them.

Although Ukraine has already twice damaged the bridge, its attacks to date reveal how challenging it will be to disable the bridge permanently. The first attack, on October 8, 2022, was executed with a truck bomb. It exploded on the western section of the bridge, near the middle of a span, causing the deck and support beams to fail and collapse into the water along with two adjacent spans. The blast ignited several nearby rail tankers carrying fuel, resulting in a massive fire that did substantial structural damage to the rail bridge. Limited one-way vehicular traffic was restored within days of the attack, but road and rail services operated at reduced capacity for seven months. Although it disrupted Russia’s ability to supply its forces in southern Ukraine, the attack did not fatally weaken the bridge support piers, instead doing damage to the deck and support beams that, although severe, was repairable.

Ukraine attacked again on July 17, 2023, using an explosive-laden sea drone that struck the underside of the eastern causeway. This section of the bridge is close to the water’s surface, making it a tempting target. But the physics of an unconfined air blast that disperses its energy in all directions meant that only a small percentage of the blast’s force was focused directly on the bridge’s underside. Although the blast did serious damage to a section of the deck and support beams, restricted rail and road traffic resumed within days, demonstrating the limited effectiveness of open-air blasts when attacking heavy structural elements.

Both attacks illustrate critical limitations to Ukraine’s ability to bring down the bridge or permanently disable it. The bridge deck is relatively thin: perhaps 12 inches of reinforced concrete topped by a few inches of asphalt. Because there is a lot of it, it is relatively easy to hit and damage — and Ukraine has. Similarly, the beams supporting the deck are comparatively light and can be separated from the piers in an explosion. The trouble is that damage to the deck and beams is relatively easy to repair, even if it is significant.

HOW TO DO IT

To disable a span permanently requires either inflicting debilitating damage to multiple piers along the bridge’s causeway or destroying one of the main piers supporting the long-span arch in its western section. The pilings and piers, however, have been well designed to carry the bridge’s heavy vehicular and rail traffic. The elements that must be destroyed to disable the bridge are also the hardest to damage. A massive, concentrated explosive force will be needed to cause the bridge’s catastrophic failure.

Destroying a pier is likely beyond the capability of an unconfined sea drone explosion. Nor is a single limited missile attack from the air likely to succeed. The piers and the weak points that connect them to the bridge deck are small targets that are difficult to hit, even when using precision long-range missiles. U.S. ATACMS missiles are among the most sophisticated weapons in Ukraine’s arsenal today, but even they, on average, land within 30 feet of their target only 50 percent of the time. This makes them precision weapons by battlefield standards, especially compared with older, less accurate missile systems that lack GPS guidance. But they cannot guarantee the pinpoint accuracy necessary to strike a relatively small target such as the concrete cap that connects the top of a bridge pier to the steel beams supporting the deck on which cars and trains travel. Furthermore, the ATACMS variant recently supplied by Washington to Kyiv carries up to 950 bomblets and is effective against airfields, troop formations, air defenses, missile launch sites, and other military targets where smaller explosions from dispersed cluster munitions can inflict serious damage. These missiles, however, cannot do concentrated catastrophic damage to hardened infrastructure. Even if Ukraine were given ATACMS missiles with unitary warheads weighing 500 pounds, it would still likely take multiple precise strikes to fatally damage the bridge.

European missiles also have problems. Previous attacks on smaller bridges in Crimea show that a British Storm Shadow missile can put a big hole in a bridge’s roadway, but it would take a large salvo of multiple missiles repeatedly hitting weak points on the piers to do permanent damage. Western and Ukrainian officials have not said publicly how many cruise missiles have been transferred to Ukraine this year. Reports, however, suggest that Washington supplied only about 20 ATACMS missiles to Kyiv in the first tranche in October 2023, some of which have already been used in attacks on Russian military targets. Ukraine, therefore, likely does not have enough missiles to carry out the kind of massive, concentrated attack that would be needed to destroy a pier.

Germany’s Taurus cruise missile, designed with a two-stage bunker-busting warhead, may have the greatest chance of fatally damaging one or more bridge piers. The first-stage explosion might weaken outer layers of a pier, foundation, or joint, allowing the second-stage warhead to penetrate deeper and maximize destructiveness. But much to Kyiv’s frustration, Berlin has refused to send the Taurus for fear of Russian counterescalation. These fears are overblown: contrary to expectations at the start of the war, Putin has time and again refrained from escalating beyond conventional attacks on Ukrainian targets. Nor has he launched counterattacks against any of the NATO countries supporting Ukraine. The Ukrainian government and people know full well that Putin would seek revenge if his bridge were destroyed, but they are the ones who would bear the cost of his vengeance. If that is a price they are willing to pay to free Crimea from Russian occupation, they should be given the means to do so.

The most reliable way to completely destroy the bridge would be an engineered demolition using explosive charges placed directly on the bridge at critical points, as is done in controlled civil demolitions. But this requires unimpeded access to the bridge, which Ukrainian forces do not have. There can, however, be little doubt that destroying the bridge will be one of the first things Ukrainian engineers will do if they liberate the Crimean Peninsula, ensuring that it can never be used to support Russian aggression again.

GIVE THEM THE TOOLS

Until then, Ukraine must continue to target the bridge with all means available — even if only to temporarily disable it — to disrupt road and rail traffic. ATACMS missiles with unitary warheads could allow Ukraine to regularly strike the more vulnerable spans of the bridge, compelling security and repair crews to be present and vigilant and adding to Russia’s logistical burden. Although they would not permanently sever this crucial supply line, such attacks would dilute the strategic advantage Russia’s war machine derives from its occupation of the peninsula. The more missiles Ukraine is given to disrupt the Russian lifeline over the Kerch Strait, the faster it can degrade Russian defenses and set the conditions for future offensive gains.

It is evident that Russia is worried about this risk. Recent reports in The Washington Post reveal that Moscow has been in secret talks with China to explore the feasibility of digging a tunnel under the Kerch Strait. Such a project would be expensive, technically difficult, and dangerous because of the seismic activity in the region. It would also take years to complete, should Moscow and Beijing attempt such folly. But in the meantime, the United States can — and should — do more to supply Ukraine with the weapons necessary to severely undermine Russian military operations in Crimea.

Just as important, Washington should intensify its diplomatic efforts to convince the German government to provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles. Although the Biden administration’s request for more aid to Ukraine may be stalled by budgetary gridlock in the U.S. Congress, there is no reason why the president and his administration should not pull every lever of influence to coax Germany and other NATO allies to step up their support of Ukraine at this critical moment.

Many Western leaders proclaim that they will support Ukraine’s war effort for as long as it takes. This is a flawed conception of victory. Instead, they must do whatever it takes to help Ukraine defeat Russia as quickly as possible. Disabling the Crimean bridge, although a tall order, is within reach if Kyiv is given the right tools for the job.

BEN HODGES is a former Commanding General of U.S. Army Europe.

LED KLOSKY is Professor of Civil Engineering at the U.S. Military Academy.

ROBERT PERSON is Associate Professor of International Relations at the U.S. Military Academy.

ERIC WILLIAMSON is Class of 1953 Distinguished Chair in Civil Engineering at the U.S. Military Academy.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, December 15, 2023 9:45 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
No, we're not slaves to NATO. You know how so many nations are TECHNICALLY part of NATO but don't really put much $ into it?

Yeah. But none of them are being forced into membership like we're going to force ourselves.

Let me put it another way...

Do you think that Auto Insurance companies started charging their customers more or less money after it became law that you had to have auto insurance if you were going to drive a car?

Quote:
Trump could be such an unpleasant NATO partner, refusing to pay into it, refusing to station troops , twisting arms so other nations pay their "fair share" they're BEGGING him to leave.

Yeah. He could...

Or they could make a claim that he's Quiet Quitting NATO, or even get more hyperbolic and call it Suicide By Cop.

https://www.investopedia.com/what-is-quiet-quitting-6743910

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_by_cop

No good comes from legally binding us to a hierarchy in which WE are not the ones in control.

Look how many of our elected officials just voted us into this from both sides of the Uniparty. This is no different than the elected officials in European countries did when they voted to cede power to the EU, and look how that turned out.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Friday, December 15, 2023 9:48 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

That's fucking terrible news.

Now we're slaves to NATO.

WTF is wrong with you people. Your TDS is so bad that National Sovereignty means nothing to you?

FUCK NATO.

Trump will get us out of this.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
6ix, you are so funny. Or is it paranoid? Or is it stupid? But you are the living proof that Trumptards are angry poor white trash who misunderstand simple things, sometimes partially, often times completely and absurdly. That tendency gets in the way of your prosperity.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Read my above post, halfwit.

I don't understand your definition of prosperity at all. I own everything I have free and clear and I've been semi-retired since I was 32 years old, despite only making about a quarter of a million in my lifetime. I haven't worked a thankless job for 4.5 years and have no worries at all about how I'm going to keep a roof over my head and food on the table.

Have fun at work today, honey.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Friday, December 15, 2023 10:09 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

That's fucking terrible news.

Now we're slaves to NATO.

WTF is wrong with you people. Your TDS is so bad that National Sovereignty means nothing to you?

FUCK NATO.

Trump will get us out of this.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
6ix, you are so funny. Or is it paranoid? Or is it stupid? But you are the living proof that Trumptards are angry poor white trash who misunderstand simple things, sometimes partially, often times completely and absurdly. That tendency gets in the way of your prosperity.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Read my above post, halfwit.

I don't understand your definition of prosperity at all. I own everything I have free and clear and I've been semi-retired since I was 32 years old, despite only making about a quarter of a million in my lifetime. I haven't worked a thankless job for 4.5 years and have no worries at all about how I'm going to keep a roof over my head and food on the table.

Have fun at work today, honey.

The NATO treaty was ratified by Congress before your parents were born. Since NATO has been around longer than them, they were born slaves and you were born a slave, or your complaining about NATO being slavery is nonsense. To quote you: "That's fucking terrible news. Now we're slaves to NATO. WTF is wrong with you people." Congress reminded Trump in 2023 that he never had the power to cancel the NATO treaty. If he tries, he gets impeached.

6ix, I wouldn't worry about you keeping food on the table. NATO will provide for you. Worry about Trump not winning and the end of your world when the Democrats take away your personal guns and you are forced to be a latrine cleaner in NATO's army conquering Russia.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, December 15, 2023 10:36 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
The NATO treaty was ratified by Congress before your parents were born. Since NATO has been around longer than them, they were born slaves and you were born a slave, or your complaining about NATO being slavery is nonsense. To quote you: "That's fucking terrible news. Now we're slaves to NATO. WTF is wrong with you people." Congress reminded Trump in 2023 that he never had the power to cancel the NATO treaty. If he tries, he gets impeached.

You don't understand anything that you're told by anyone, let alone what I'm talking about here. This is very apparent in your stupid reply quoted above.

And go ahead and impeach Trump again. Big fuckin' deal. We already knew you were going to impeach him at least 2 more times for one thing or another when he gets reelected in November.

Why do you think I haven't made a single mention about the liklihood that Biden* is about to be impeached himself? Because it doesn't mean anything.

Quote:
6ix, I wouldn't worry about you keeping food on the table. NATO will provide for you. Worry about Trump not winning and the end of your world when the Democrats take away your personal guns and you are forced to be a latrine cleaner in NATO's army conquering Russia.

Fuck NATO. I don't need anybody to provide for me.

Democrats aren't taking away our gun rights just like they never take away our gun rights. It's just another issue they never want resolved (like abortion) because it's much more valuable as a political weapon every election season than the issue itself is to them.

I'm going to be 45 next year buddy. The Army doesn't want me anymore.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Friday, December 15, 2023 12:21 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Putin Admits Russia Has Suffered Huge Losses in Ukraine

Dec 14, 2023 at 5:15 PM EST

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-admits-russia-suffered-huge-losses-ukra
ine-1852660

Despite the figures from Matveev, it is not clear that Putin was admitting to 363,000 lost soldiers. However, the figure does come close to the 315,000 claimed Russian troop casualties that were revealed in a leaked declassified U.S. intelligence document this week.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed in a Facebook post on Wednesday that Russia had lost 342,800 troops since first launching its invasion on February 24, 2022. The U.K. military also estimated in mid-November that 302,000 Russian personnel had been lost.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, December 15, 2023 12:53 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
No, we're not slaves to NATO. You know how so many nations are TECHNICALLY part of NATO but don't really put much $ into it?

SIX: Yeah. But none of them are being forced into membership like we're going to force ourselves.
Let me put it another way...
Do you think that Auto Insurance companies started charging their customers more or less money after it became law that you had to have auto insurance if you were going to drive a car?

SIGNY: Trump could be such an unpleasant NATO partner, refusing to pay into it, refusing to station troops , twisting arms so other nations pay their "fair share" they're BEGGING him to leave.

SIX: Yeah. He could...
Or they could make a claim that he's Quiet Quitting NATO, or even get more hyperbolic and call it Suicide By Cop.

No good comes from legally binding us to a hierarchy in which WE are not the ones in control.
Look how many of our elected officials just voted us into this from both sides of the Uniparty. This is no different than the elected officials in European countries did when they voted to cede power to the EU, and look how that turned out.

I agree about being bound into a non- sovereign power structure. That's why I was dead set against NAFTA, and (later) TTP and TTIP.

But SIX, NATO has already been ratified.
How Trump, or any President, chooses to participate is a matter for the President, NOT Congress or "The Interagency". If Trump or any other President chooses "quiet - quitting" it's his or her prerogative. I realize there would be a lot of pushback from The Interagency, Congress, the MIC ... a lot of powerful forces. But with the right aides and allies and a big broom to sweep out enemies, it can be done.

Also, what Congress does, a new Congress can undo.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Friday, December 15, 2023 1:04 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
"Russia lost 360,000 people in the war, according to Putin," Matveev wrote. "244 thousand mobilized. 486 thousand volunteers. And there are only 617 thousand at the front. Entertaining military mathematics from Putin.

"The losses were 113 thousand people," he continued. "But there was also the invasion group and those who were recruited before mobilization. And this is around 250 thousand. That is, Putin literally admitted irretrievable losses in the amount of 363 thousand people."

WTF is Matveev smoking?

Not everyone is stationed at the front line! It's well- known that Russia is only fighting with some of its forces.

Troops are stationed in Belarus (100,000 IIRC). Along the Russian border NOT with Ukraine. Being trained, which can take 9 - 12 months. Rotated off the front line.

My God, this guy is delusional, and anyone who believes him is equally delusional.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Friday, December 15, 2023 3:30 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
No, we're not slaves to NATO. You know how so many nations are TECHNICALLY part of NATO but don't really put much $ into it?

SIX: Yeah. But none of them are being forced into membership like we're going to force ourselves.
Let me put it another way...
Do you think that Auto Insurance companies started charging their customers more or less money after it became law that you had to have auto insurance if you were going to drive a car?

SIGNY: Trump could be such an unpleasant NATO partner, refusing to pay into it, refusing to station troops , twisting arms so other nations pay their "fair share" they're BEGGING him to leave.

SIX: Yeah. He could...
Or they could make a claim that he's Quiet Quitting NATO, or even get more hyperbolic and call it Suicide By Cop.

No good comes from legally binding us to a hierarchy in which WE are not the ones in control.
Look how many of our elected officials just voted us into this from both sides of the Uniparty. This is no different than the elected officials in European countries did when they voted to cede power to the EU, and look how that turned out.

I agree about being bound into a non- sovereign power structure. That's why I was dead set against NAFTA, and (later) TTP and TTIP.

But SIX, NATO has already been ratified.

Why does that matter?

Quote:
How Trump, or any President, chooses to participate is a matter for the President, NOT Congress or "The Interagency".

Apparently not, if the Uniparty can make it US law that they can't leave NATO.

Quote:
If Trump or any other President chooses "quiet - quitting" it's his or her prerogative. I realize there would be a lot of pushback from The Interagency, Congress, the MIC ... a lot of powerful forces. But with the right aides and allies and a big broom to sweep out enemies, it can be done.

I hate to sound like the nihilist in the room, but have you been paying attention to what side of the issue the Media is on and how much sway they have over all the stupid people?

Quote:
Also, what Congress does, a new Congress can undo.

Haha! Yeah. That will be the day.

Remember when toll roads were only going to be tolled for a few years until they were freeways? I'm still waiting for the airports to be TSA free and for them to stop sticking fingers up people's butts 22 years later.

Patriot Act, indeed.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Friday, December 15, 2023 4:26 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
No, we're not slaves to NATO. You know how so many nations are TECHNICALLY part of NATO but don't really put much $ into it?

SIX: Yeah. But none of them are being forced into membership like we're going to force ourselves.
Let me put it another way...
Do you think that Auto Insurance companies started charging their customers more or less money after it became law that you had to have auto insurance if you were going to drive a car?

SIGNY: Trump could be such an unpleasant NATO partner, refusing to pay into it, refusing to station troops , twisting arms so other nations pay their "fair share" they're BEGGING him to leave.

SIX: Yeah. He could...
Or they could make a claim that he's Quiet Quitting NATO, or even get more hyperbolic and call it Suicide By Cop.

No good comes from legally binding us to a hierarchy in which WE are not the ones in control.
Look how many of our elected officials just voted us into this from both sides of the Uniparty. This is no different than the elected officials in European countries did when they voted to cede power to the EU, and look how that turned out.

I agree about being bound into a non- sovereign power structure. That's why I was dead set against NAFTA, and (later) TTP and TTIP.

But SIX, NATO has already been ratified.

Why does that matter?

Quote:
How Trump, or any President, chooses to participate is a matter for the President, NOT Congress or "The Interagency".

Apparently not, if the Uniparty can make it US law that they can't leave NATO.

Quote:
If Trump or any other President chooses "quiet - quitting" it's his or her prerogative. I realize there would be a lot of pushback from The Interagency, Congress, the MIC ... a lot of powerful forces. But with the right aides and allies and a big broom to sweep out enemies, it can be done.

I hate to sound like the nihilist in the room, but have you been paying attention to what side of the issue the Media is on and how much sway they have over all the stupid people?

Quote:
Also, what Congress does, a new Congress can undo.

Haha! Yeah. That will be the day.

Remember when toll roads were only going to be tolled for a few years until they were freeways? I'm still waiting for the airports to be TSA free and for them to stop sticking fingers up people's butts 22 years later.

Patriot Act, indeed.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

. Laws can be found unconstitutional, SIX.

Foreign policy rests with the President. Congress comes in to declare war and ratify treaties. It also has "the power of the purse", but that's it.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Friday, December 15, 2023 5:09 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
No, we're not slaves to NATO. You know how so many nations are TECHNICALLY part of NATO but don't really put much $ into it?

SIX: Yeah. But none of them are being forced into membership like we're going to force ourselves.
Let me put it another way...
Do you think that Auto Insurance companies started charging their customers more or less money after it became law that you had to have auto insurance if you were going to drive a car?

SIGNY: Trump could be such an unpleasant NATO partner, refusing to pay into it, refusing to station troops , twisting arms so other nations pay their "fair share" they're BEGGING him to leave.

SIX: Yeah. He could...
Or they could make a claim that he's Quiet Quitting NATO, or even get more hyperbolic and call it Suicide By Cop.

No good comes from legally binding us to a hierarchy in which WE are not the ones in control.
Look how many of our elected officials just voted us into this from both sides of the Uniparty. This is no different than the elected officials in European countries did when they voted to cede power to the EU, and look how that turned out.

I agree about being bound into a non- sovereign power structure. That's why I was dead set against NAFTA, and (later) TTP and TTIP.

But SIX, NATO has already been ratified.

Why does that matter?

Quote:
How Trump, or any President, chooses to participate is a matter for the President, NOT Congress or "The Interagency".

Apparently not, if the Uniparty can make it US law that they can't leave NATO.

Quote:
If Trump or any other President chooses "quiet - quitting" it's his or her prerogative. I realize there would be a lot of pushback from The Interagency, Congress, the MIC ... a lot of powerful forces. But with the right aides and allies and a big broom to sweep out enemies, it can be done.

I hate to sound like the nihilist in the room, but have you been paying attention to what side of the issue the Media is on and how much sway they have over all the stupid people?

Quote:
Also, what Congress does, a new Congress can undo.

Haha! Yeah. That will be the day.

Remember when toll roads were only going to be tolled for a few years until they were freeways? I'm still waiting for the airports to be TSA free and for them to stop sticking fingers up people's butts 22 years later.

Patriot Act, indeed.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
. Laws can be found unconstitutonal, SIX.

God willing.

Quote:
Foreign policy rests with the President.

So the government would want us to believe.

Quote:
Congress comes in to declare war and ratify treaties.

How many of our wars has Congress approved in your lifetime? They haven't had a good track record in mine. In fact, you could say they don't have any track record at all.

Quote:
It also has "the power of the purse".

The non-Government and non-Government regulated FED has been handling all of that that my entire lifetime too.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Friday, December 15, 2023 6:26 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

SIX, if "The Interagency" has such a tight grip on foreign policy, money supply and all that, what Congress does or doesn't do hardly makes a difference. At this point Congress is mostly a bunch of feckless twats stroking each other and grandstanding for the electorate.

But aside from that, AFA Ukraine is concerned, Russia is in the driver's seat. It's not up to the President, Congress, or "The Interagency" what happens next, unless Biden dementedly starts a nuclear war. As long as it remains conventional, the various American and European factions will continue to squabble with each other and amongst themselves until Ukraine surrenders. After that, Russia will start addressing NATO directly.

It's not in Congress's hands, even if they like to think so.
Chill.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Friday, December 15, 2023 7:23 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Decades before he even ran for office, Trump questioned the purpose and efficiency of NATO, writing in his 2000 book, The America We Deserve, that European "conflicts are not worth American lives. Pulling back from Europe would save this country millions of dollars annually." He called the alliance "obsolete" and "unfair economically" to the U.S. during his 2016 presidential campaign.

His open hostility to the alliance reemerged last year after he called NATO a "paper tiger" amid Russia's war on Ukraine.

He has privately discussed pulling the U.S. out unless his demands are met and signaled his refusal to appoint "NATO lovers" to senior Cabinet positions, Rolling Stone reported in October. A single line on his campaign website states, "We have to finish the process we began under my administration of fundamentally re-evaluating NATO's purpose and NATO's mission."

Formed after World War II as a response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union, the military alliance promises that an armed attack on any member of the 31 member states "shall be considered an attack against them all."

https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-take-away-trumps-ammunition-18528
09

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, December 15, 2023 8:20 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SIX, if "The Interagency" has such a tight grip on foreign policy, money supply and all that, what Congress does or doesn't do hardly makes a difference. At this point Congress is mostly a bunch of feckless twats stroking each other and grandstanding for the electorate.

But aside from that, AFA Ukraine is concerned, Russia is in the driver's seat. It's not up to the President, Congress, or "The Interagency" what happens next, unless Biden dementedly starts a nuclear war. As long as it remains conventional, the various American and European factions will continue to squabble with each other and amongst themselves until Ukraine surrenders. After that, Russia will start addressing NATO directly.

It's not in Congress's hands, even if they like to think so.
Chill.

I just don't seeing our TDS suffering elected officials getting us one step closer to joining some sort of EU.

The countries with the most are the ones giving up their quality of life for everyone else.

It's bad enough that we're giving the whole damn country away to illegal foreign invaders as it is.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Saturday, December 16, 2023 12:20 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Usually you make more sense, so please explain...

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SIX, if "The Interagency" has such a tight grip on foreign policy, money supply and all that, what Congress does or doesn't do hardly makes a difference. At this point Congress is mostly a bunch of feckless twats stroking each other and grandstanding for the electorate.

But aside from that, AFA Ukraine is concerned, Russia is in the driver's seat. It's not up to the President, Congress, or "The Interagency" what happens next, unless Biden dementedly starts a nuclear war. As long as it remains conventional, the various American and European factions will continue to squabble with each other and amongst themselves until Ukraine surrenders. After that, Russia will start addressing NATO directly.

It's not in Congress's hands, even if they like to think so.
Chill.

SIX: I just don't seeing our TDS suffering elected officials getting us one step closer to joining some sort of EU.

Is that even an issue? And ... that's a good thing, right? I don't understand your point.

Quote:
SIX: The countries with the most are the ones giving up their quality of life for everyone else.

It's bad enough that we're giving the whole damn country away to illegal foreign invaders as it is.

The countries that are suffering the most are in the EU, and AFAIK Germany and Britain are suffering the most.
So IDK what this point is either.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

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Saturday, December 16, 2023 8:11 AM