Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

I envy you for having such a binary outlook on everything. It makes everything so easy, doesn't it? No room for nuance in your life. No sir. That would require effort and critical thinking ability. No shades of grey allowed in your house. Second only deals in absolutes.

It is impossible for somebody as small brained as you are to give any meaningful judgement about anyone.

6ix is grouped with Trump and Russians. They behave badly and are very secretive and lie to hide what they are doing. They claim to be innocent until proven guilty. They strenuously avoid and object to being judged.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's candidate for Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov outlined his and Putin's intended priorities for the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) during a speech to the Russian Federation Council on May 14. Belousov stated that Putin has set two tasks for a Belousov-led Russian MoD – ensuring the full integration of the Russian military's economy into the general Russian economy and making the Russian MoD as open to innovation as possible.[9] Belousov stated that the Russian MoD's "most pressing issue" is equipping and supplying the Russian military with modern equipment, ammunition, missiles, communications equipment, drones, and electronic warfare (EW) systems. Belousov stated that his other top priorities are the implementation of the 2025 state defense order, the Russian MoD's annual request for new weapons and equipment from the Russian defense industry, and recruitment efforts, but noted that there is no need to discuss "emergency measures" such as a partial or general mobilization of Russian citizens. Belousov noted that the Russian MoD must optimize its spending and gain greater control over the Russian defense industry. Belousov's identified priorities are largely consistent with ISW's assessment that Belousov's appointment indicates that Putin is taking significant steps towards mobilizing the Russian economy and defense industry to support a protracted war effort in Ukraine and possibly prepare for a future confrontation with NATO.[10]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-may-14-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 15, 2024 9:24 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

May 14, 2024

Ukraine’s military mobilization has been “woefully inadequate.” The average age of Ukraine’s fighting force is 43 years old, a “stunning” figure, and Ukraine is being outpaced by Russia in its efforts to conscript fresh, younger fighters to relieve troops that have been fighting for more than two years.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2024/05/should-nato-step-up-rol
e-in-russia-ukraine-war/

For comparison with Ukraine:

The average age of the United States soldier in World War II is estimated at 26 with the draft including all able-bodied men from 18 years of age to 45 years.

https://www.google.com/search?q=average+age+of+american+soldier+in+ww2

The VA reports that the average age of the US military in Vietnam was 22. Officers averaged 28.

https://www.google.com/search?q=average+age+of+american+soldier+in+vie
tnam

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 15, 2024 12:18 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Putin keeps bombing his own citizens by mistake

By Danny Rigg | May 15, 2024, 8:46am

https://metro.co.uk/2024/05/14/putin-keeps-bombing-citizens-mistake-20
839607/

Putin seems so hellbent on redrawing Russia’s border with Ukraine that his military has repeatedly bombed its own citizens this year.

We’re less than halfway through 2024 and already Russia has ‘accidentally dropped’ 39 aerial bombs on the Belgorod region alone.

There were 30 homes damaged and five people were injured when an FAB-500 bomb fell in a civilian area on May 4.

A 500kg gliding bomb capable of creating a 15-metre-wide crater, it’s usually used to decimate Ukraine’s frontline fighters.

Sitting on the border with northeastern Ukraine, Belgorod has found itself caught in the crossfire of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

It’s from this region that Putin has launched his latest bid to capture Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv, sending troops pouring over the border towards towns and villages like Vovchansk and Lyptsi in recent days.

Back in March, more than 9,000 children were evacuated from the region as anti-Putin brigades like the Freedom of Russia legion staged the largest cross-border raids yet, Kyiv Independent reported.

The evacuees were removed from areas like Grayvoron, the most western village in Belgorod, where Russian military had installed Grad rocket launchers on intersections, the Kyiv Post said.

Just last week, an apartment building collapsed in Belgorod after it was hit by what appeared to be a Ukrainian missile.

But most of the damage caused to this border region has been a result of Russia’s own missiles.

Since the start of the year, Russia has dropped 39 bombs on Belgorod, Russian outlet The Insider revealed.

Most of these incidents have involved variants of the FAB bomb, which has been adapted from Soviet-era weaponry.

The other was a Kh-59 missile.

Another independent Russian outlet, Astra, found Putin’s forces had dropped at least 33 bombs on Russian territory, and Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine, between March and May this year.

Four were dropped in Belgorod on May 10 alone.

Such mistakes have left homes destroyed, cars burnt out, and Russian citizens fearing for their lives at the hands of their own army’s incompetence.

The UK government blamed the accidental bombings on poor training and fatigue, Newsweek reported.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 15, 2024 12:39 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
6ix is ... the usual off target insults and insunuations ...

... Belousov's appointment indicates that Putin is taking significant steps towards mobilizing the Russian economy and defense industry to support a protracted war effort in Ukraine and possibly prepare for a future confrontation with NATO.

Russia has been preparing for a conflict with NATO since 2014.

Why else do you think it developed so many new missile technologies?

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 15, 2024 4:23 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
6ix is ...
the usual off target insults and insunuations ...

... Belousov's appointment indicates that Putin is taking significant steps towards mobilizing the Russian economy and defense industry to support a protracted war effort in Ukraine and possibly prepare for a future confrontation with NATO.

Russia has been preparing for a conflict with NATO since 2014.

Why else do you think it developed so many new missile technologies?

They played Trump; too funny. As for missiles, Russia's are a joke. And the Chinese army removed the propellant from their rockets to drink, get high on.

T

Putin’s takeover of Ukraine is ‘never going to occur’

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 15, 2024 4:33 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:

6ix is ... the usual off target insults and insunuations ...

... Belousov's appointment indicates that Putin is taking significant steps towards mobilizing the Russian economy and defense industry to support a protracted war effort in Ukraine and possibly prepare for a future confrontation with NATO.

Russia has been preparing for a conflict with NATO since 2014.

Why else do you think it developed so many new missile technologies?

I said it in another thread. Russia is losing to Ukraine and NATO is 32 nations strong with America being one of them. When you suggest Russia is ready to take on NATO, you prove you don't live in reality.

T

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 15, 2024 5:00 PM

Ukraine Deals HUGE DAMAGE to Russian Bases - Ukraine War Map Update 15/May/2024

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 15, 2024 9:41 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Kremlin continues to add European officials to Russia's wanted list as part of Russia's efforts to assert the jurisdiction of Russian federal law over sovereign NATO member states. Russian opposition outlet Mediazona published an updated review of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs' (MVD) wanted list on May 15 and noted that the Russian MVD added several dozen more Lithuanian, Latvian, Estonian, Czech, and Polish officials to the wanted list since February 2024.[39] Mediazona reported that there are currently 88 Latvian and 66 Lithuanian politicians from various government levels; five Polish mayors; an unspecified number of former and current council members of several Czech municipalities; and four current and former Estonian officials, including current Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and Minister of Internal Affairs Lauri Laanemets, on Russia's wanted list. Mediazona noted that the Russian MVD also recently added and removed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, as ISW previously reported.[40] ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin's efforts to assert the jurisdiction of Russian law in sovereign European states are intended to set information conditions justifying possible future Russian aggression against NATO.[41]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-may-15-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 15, 2024 10:49 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
The Kremlin continues to add European officials to Russia's wanted list as part of Russia's efforts to assert the jurisdiction of Russian federal law over sovereign NATO member states

Oh, you mean like the EU and USA tried to assert their jurisdiction via the ICC over the sovereign state of Russia??

A funny thing. Russia has never signed the Rome Statute recognizing the ICC.
Even funnier, neither has the USA!

Do try to keep up!

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 15, 2024 11:29 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
THUGR: I said it in another thread. Russia is losing to Ukraine and NATO is 32 nations strong with America being one of them. When you suggest Russia is ready to take on NATO, you prove you don't live in reality.

Russia is swarming over Ukraine's northern border and is within 20-40 miles of Karkhov (depending on who you listen to). All of the $$ sent for fortifications seems to have disappeared. I've heard of only one minefield and one trench, both from Dima of (pro-Ukrainian) Military Summary Channel.

Russia is also steadily advancing west of Bakhmut, encircling Chasov Yar, and west of Avdiivka thru a number of villages including Krsanohorovka. South, Rabotyna had been fully taken by the Russians and even further south, toward the mouth of the Dnieper, threatened Ukrainian beachheads on the Russian side have been pulled back.

Ukrainian soldiers are dying by the thousands. And all Ukraine can seem to do is strike civilian centers in Belgorod (north, across the border from, and formerly sister city to Karkhov) and launch pinprick attacks on Russia that make no difference to the war.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, May 16, 2024 6:02 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Saving the Animals of Ukraine | Full Episode | NATURE | PBS

S42 Ep16
Saving the Animals of Ukraine
Premiere: 5/15/2024 | 00:53:29 | TV-14 |

In the midst of violence and war, Ukrainian citizens are coming together to rescue animals that have been left behind by those forced to flee.
Streaming until: 6/12/2024 @ 11:59 PM EDT
https://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature/about-saving-the-animals-of-ukraine/30
158/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, May 16, 2024 6:07 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The US Helsinki Commission stated that the US should allow Ukraine to conduct strikes against military targets in Russia's border areas amid an ongoing Russian offensive operation into Kharkiv Oblast from Russia, although US officials continue to express unwillingness to support such strikes. The US Helsinki Commission stated on May 15 that the US should "not only allow but encourage" Ukrainian forces to strike Russian forces firing and staging in Russia's border areas as part of Russia's offensive operations into northern Kharkiv Oblast.[5] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated earlier on May 15 that the US has not "encouraged or enabled" Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory but noted that Ukraine must decide how to conduct this war.[6] Politico reported on May 14, citing two unnamed US officials, that the Biden Administration's policy prohibiting Ukraine's use of US-provided weapons to strike Russian territory has not changed.[7] Politico's sources stated that US military assistance to Ukraine is "for the defense and not for offensive operations" into Russian territory. A Ukrainian operation to strike systems in Russia that are directly supporting Russia's offensive ground operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast would be an inherently defensive effort and to characterize such an effort as "offensive" would be inaccurate. ISW recently assessed that US limitations on Ukraine's ability to strike military targets in Russia have created a sanctuary in Russia's border areas from which Russian aircraft can conduct glide bomb and missile strikes against Ukrainian positions and settlements and where Russian forces and equipment can freely assemble before entering combat.[8] This US policy is severely compromising Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast.[9]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-may-15-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, May 16, 2024 6:15 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Changing Nuclear Mind Game

Russia’s nuclear threats to reach conventional goals in Ukraine mark a new era of brinkmanship.

By Rose Gottemoeller, a lecturer at Stanford University and former NATO deputy secretary-general.

May 15, 2024

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/15/nuclear-weapons-mind-game-deterre
nce-escalation-putin-russia-threats-ukraine-war-biden/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order for nuclear weapon drills went public on May 6, the day after Orthodox Easter—a bitter irony since he styles himself a fervent guardian of Christian values, which do not include the simulation of nuclear annihilation the last time I checked. I wonder whether he signed the order before or after his much-publicized attendance of Easter service at Moscow’s Cathedral of Christ the Savior.

The exercises will simulate “theater,” or regional, nuclear attacks, in contrast to “strategic” nuclear exercises simulating war with the United States. These theater exercises will be centered in Russia’s southern military district, likely targeting not only Ukraine but also NATO members Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey. The message coming from Moscow is that the exercises are in answer to loose talk from French President Emmanuel Macron and other NATO leaders about possibly sending alliance forces to fight in Ukraine.

The Kremlin appears to be reinforcing, in no uncertain terms, a red line against NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. Fortunately, it is a red line that most NATO leaders share, including U.S. President Joe Biden. From the very outset of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Biden made it clear that the United States and its allies would send military assistance to Ukraine but not engage in the fighting. His goal was and remains crystal clear: to avoid a direct fight between Russia and NATO in Europe that could escalate to World War III and nuclear conflict.

Putin also wants to avoid a direct fight between Russia and NATO. For him, that means avoiding strikes against NATO territory or reconnaissance aircraft patrolling the airspace over the Black Sea. NATO deliveries are fair game for attack once they arrive on Ukrainian soil, but not while they are still transiting NATO territory.

The United States and Russia thus agree on one thing in this terrible war: They do not want to risk a nuclear holocaust. Why, then, do the Russians keep claiming that the world is facing one?

Part of it is evidently the Kremlin’s effort to derive value from this very brinkmanship—a pattern of behavior rarely seen since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the last time the world came to the brink of a nuclear exchange. During the Cold War, the United States and Soviet Union fought proxy wars in many places, from Angola to Vietnam, but threats to use their nuclear forces rarely played a role. Neither side used such threats to achieve conventional battlefield goals, the way leading Russian officials have been doing throughout the war in Ukraine.

Instead, Washington and Moscow first built up their strategic arsenals—the long-range nuclear weapons by which they threaten each other directly—sustaining essential parity as they went. So long as neither side built significantly more than the other, and as long as both sustained a high level of readiness, the two superpowers had a nuclear deterrent that both considered stable.

This stability became so boring and reliable that people more or less forgot about nuclear annihilation. Once policymakers in Washington and Moscow began to control and limit their nuclear arsenals in the 1970s—starting with the first U.S.-Soviet détente and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty—the rest of the world was glad. No one wanted to think about what would happen if the nuclear superpowers “pressed the button.” And they did not have to: The superpowers were heading in a different direction, reducing their reliance on nuclear weapons.

The war in Ukraine has thrown this complacency into turmoil, because Putin and his minions have insisted on rattling the nuclear saber throughout the invasion. Now the rest of the world has to think again about nuclear weapons and what Russia might do with them.

This bizarre game of nuclear look-at-me is linked to the Kremlin’s equally bizarre complaint that its act of invading Ukraine has created an existential threat to Russia. In this telling, NATO support to Ukraine is tied up with strategic defeat of Russia. As commentators in Moscow claim, Russia only wanted the best for Ukraine—its liberation from a “Nazi” regime and a fake idea of statehood. However, once NATO began to aid Kyiv, the bloc’s goal was not helping Ukraine, but destroying and dismembering Russia.

Some leading officials in NATO member states have indeed voiced Russia’s strategic defeat as an objective for what they are trying to achieve in assisting Ukraine. But again, Biden has been crystal clear that the bloc has a limited objective that does not threaten Russia itself. In May 2022, he said: “We do not seek a war between NATO and Russia. As much as I disagree with Mr. Putin, and find his actions an outrage, the United States will not try to bring about his ouster in Moscow. So long as the United States or our allies are not attacked, we will not be directly engaged in this conflict, either by sending American troops to fight in Ukraine or by attacking Russian forces.”

But Putin and his chief ministers have not been mollified. They continue to go on and on about how the United States and NATO are seeking the strategic defeat of Russia and its demise as a nation. Their motivation is obvious: If its people believe that the country is facing total destruction, they will stay in the fight for the sake of survival.

So there is a lesson here for leaders not only in the United States but also in Europe and Asia: The fabric of nuclear deterrence is changing, its mind game adjusting to a new era of nuclear brinkmanship. So far, Putin and those around him have been the most active practitioners, but North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, whose nuclear capacity now extends beyond his regional neighbors, has been not far behind. Beijing, although it has sustained a nuclear good-guy image with a policy of no first use, could be tempted to follow Putin’s example as its nuclear force structure becomes more modernized and its ambitions extend throughout Asia.

With so much loose nuclear talk in the air, the United States and its allies must think hard about how to sustain stable and strong deterrence. In other words, they are going to have to focus on how to talk responsibly to the global public about nuclear weapons. The most important audience in deterrence, of course, are the potential nuclear aggressors.

The first rule should be to maintain discipline about using terms such as “strategic defeat,” so as not to pander to claims that it is Washington and its allies that are posing an existential threat. If the United States does not seek the destruction of the aggressors’ regimes and the dismemberment of their countries, it should say so. If Washington is not clear about the objectives in a conflict, then it should say nothing at all.

The second rule should be to sustain the effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear deterrent and the reliability of its command and control systems. That means consistent, solid support for the ongoing modernization of the nuclear triad. It means continuing nuclear training and exercises in a transparent manner and testing nuclear delivery systems—missiles and bombers. All of these actions should not be articulated in a threatening manner—the United States should not be the one rattling the nuclear saber—but convey quiet confidence in the country’s nuclear deterrence forces.

Third, Washington should be pursuing with assurance the mutual predictability that comes from controlling and limiting nuclear weapons at the negotiating table. Of course, Russia, China, and North Korea show little interest in coming to that table today, but the United States should not be the side that is quitting it. The global public wants to see continued progress on nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation, not a descent into a new nuclear arms race. And importantly, the table of nuclear talks is a good place to deliver deterrence messages. As difficult as it may be, the United States and its allies must continue to lead in this arena.

Finally and most importantly, the United States and its allies must sustain steady progress in military assistance to Ukraine. The most serious implication of the delayed funding vote in the U.S. Congress was that the United States could be halted in its tracks by a bully brandishing nuclear weapons. U.S. leaders need to convey quiet confidence in the country’s nuclear deterrent and keep their promises to Ukraine. Together, these two elements make up the critical message that must go to others who might try nuclear threats to get their way.

In each of these steps, Washington has great potential to bolster its nuclear deterrent. The United States’ naturally open system facilitates communicating deterrence messages when a president speaks to the nation or military and political leaders testify before the U.S. Congress. The national budget process permits the country to convey openly and clearly the process of its nuclear modernization. And working together with allies, the United States can drive nuclear statecraft forward in ways that preserve nuclear predictability and, at the same time, strengthen deterrence. The fabric of nuclear deterrence may be changing, but determining its future must not be left to the aggressors.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, May 16, 2024 6:34 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Putin Is Selling Victory, and Many Russians Are Buying It

Vladimir Putin’s message to his country appears to be taking hold: that Russia is fighting against the whole Western world — and winning.

By Valerie Hopkins, Nanna Heitmann | May 15, 2024

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/15/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-vic
tory-moscow.html

The word “victory” is everywhere in Moscow these days.

It is being projected from gargantuan LED screens alongside major intersections and highways and written on red flags whipping in the wind. It’s prominent at an exhibit of Western weapons destroyed on Ukrainian battlefields and lugged back to Moscow as war trophies on display in — where else? — Victory Park.

Victory is precisely the message that President Vladimir V. Putin, 71, has sought to project as he has been feted with pomp and pageantry after another electoral success, while his army sweeps through Ukrainian villages in a stunning new offensive in the northeast.

“Together, we will be victorious!” Mr. Putin said at his inauguration last week after securing a fifth term as president. Two days later, the country celebrated Victory Day, Russia’s most important public holiday, which commemorates the Soviet contribution to the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

During the first year of the invasion, many Russians were shocked and ashamed by the war; hundreds of thousands left the country. During the second year, they were concerned about a potential second wave of mobilization.

But with the war now in its third year, many Russians seem to have learned to accept it, interviews over the last week and recent polling show. And “victory” is an easy sell in Mr. Putin’s Russia.

Western sanctions have inflicted few economic hardships. The military news from Ukraine is increasingly positive. Yes, soldiers are still returning in coffins, but mostly to families in the hinterlands, not among the Moscow elite. And for many, the deaths only reinforce the idea, pushed by state news media and driven home relentlessly by Mr. Putin, that Russia is facing an existential threat from the West.

“We can feel that victory is near,” said Andrei, 43, who said he traveled to Moscow for the May 9 holiday celebrations from the Chita region, almost 3,000 miles from the capital.

Like others interviewed for this story, he declined to provide his last name, indicating apparent mistrust of Western news media.

He was among those who braved the cold and even snow to visit the collection of recently captured Western military equipment. (Ukraine also displays destroyed Russian tanks in the center of Kyiv). But the brash exhibit in Moscow, with flags on the equipment showing which countries donated them to Ukraine, fits Russia’s narrative that it is fighting against the whole developed world — and winning.

“When you see all this, and all these flags, it is clear that the whole world is supplying weapons and you know that a world war is going on,” Andrei said. “It’s Russia against the whole world, as usual.”

Ivan, another visitor to Victory Park, waited his turn to pose in front of the rusted and charred hulk of the German Leopard tank, flashing a smile and giving a thumbs up as his friend photographed him. People jostled for a spot beside a similarly destroyed American-made M1 Abrams tank.

“There has been so much talk about these Abrams, about these Leopards, and what is the result?” said Ivan, 26.

“They are all standing here, we are looking at them, we see what condition they are in. This is great!” He smiled.

The bravado exhibited by Russians like Andrei and Ivan this month mirrors the confident posture of Mr. Putin as he steers Russia past economic challenges and to greater battlefield advantage in Ukraine.

His inauguration included a church service in which he was blessed by the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill I, who expressed hope that the president would remain in power until “the end of the century.”

According to the Levada Center, an independent polling institution, about 75 percent of Russians profess support for their army’s actions in Ukraine. (About a quarter of the population is against the war, the poll and other research shows, but protests are effectively banned, and repression is so intense that many people are afraid to acknowledge or share antiwar or anti-government content online).

Thousands who fled Russia have returned. Their lives have adapted to the new normal, and have actually changed less than those in the West might expect.

“It’s what, the 13th package of sanctions they’re making?” Ivan said, laughing. “So far, we don’t feel anything.”

Robots built by Yandex, Russia’s homegrown version of Google, can be seen traversing Moscow’s sidewalks making deliveries. Inflation is under control, at least for now. According to a report last month by Forbes, the number of billionaires in Moscow — measured in U.S. dollars — increased so much that the city moved up four spots in the global rankings, behind only New York City.

“Most of the brands that allegedly left Russia have not gone anywhere,” said Andrei, adding that he and his daughter planned to have lunch at a rebranded K.F.C. What had changed, he said, was that “the consolidation of society has taken place” over the rationale for the war, as well as the conservative social values Mr. Putin is pushing.

Mr. Putin and others trumpeted that apparent cohesion when the official results of his preordained election victory in March were announced, with a record 88 percent of the vote going to the incumbent, a figure that Western democracies decried as a sham.

“Russia is such a complicated, multiethnic country that to understand it and govern it, you need more than one term,” said Oleg V. Panchurin, 32, a veteran of the war in Ukraine.

“If it’s going to be President Putin, then I would be happy if he served 10 terms,” said Mr. Panchurin, who said had been recently wounded near Zaporizhzhia by a Ukrainian drone.

Some civilians who were interviewed said they were pleased the president had taken a hard-line conservative position promoting traditional family values.

Zhenya, 36, and his girlfriend, Masha, expressed gratitude that the government had “finally handled the L.G.B.T.Q. issue” — by banning what it called the “L.G.B.T.Q. movement.” The pair were attending a 1940s-themed Victory Day celebration in a park in central Moscow where participants fox-trotted and waltzed as a live military band played.

With no one who could credibly replace him, the prospect that Mr. Putin will stay in power as long as he is alive feels increasingly possible to ordinary Russians, said Andrei Kolesnikov, a Moscow-based senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

“Everyone understands that this is for a long time,” he said. “The longer he is in power, the more apprehension there is about who will be next, who will be worse.”

“We are moving closer to a scenario where we could see the effect of Stalin, when, after his death, people were crying, because people didn’t know how to live,” Mr. Kolesnikov added.

Russians who oppose the government say they increasingly fear that they will have to wait for Mr. Putin’s death for anything to change.

“I feel a very strong sense of hopelessness,” said Yulia, 48, a teacher who was visiting the grave of Aleksei A. Navalny, the opposition politician, in southeast Moscow. Mr. Navalny, who died in prison in an Arctic penal colony in February, had long been considered the only possible challenger to Mr. Putin. Yulia declined to use her last name out of fear of possible repercussions.

“I don’t see a way out of this,” she said.

Yulia’s son, Pavel, said, “We are sure that everything depends on the death of person in a certain place.” His mother shushed him, noticing the uniformed Russian National Guard forces that stood nearby; even in death, Mr. Navalny is still monitored closely by the government. Still, there was a steady stream of visitors to the grave.

On the other side of Moscow, mourners were still coming to show their respects to the 145 victims of the March 22 terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall, one of the deadliest in Europe in the past decade. Floral wreaths, plush toys and photos of the victims were placed near the destroyed concert hall.

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, and American officials have blamed Islamic State Khorasan Province, or ISIS-K, a branch of the group. Even so, the Kremlin has sought to cast blame on Ukraine and the West.

One woman who declined to give her name said she was sure the West was behind it — despite the fact that the United States had warned Moscow of an imminent attack. According to the Levada Center, half of those polled believe Ukraine was behind the attack, with almost 40 percent saying Western intelligence services were involved.

Vladimir, 26, who was visiting the improvised memorial for the first time, said he didn’t blame the Kremlin for failing to heed the warnings.

“I want the terrorists to be destroyed,” said Vladimir, a supermarket employee. But the president, he said, was doing a great job. “He works so hard.”

“May God keep him alive and healthy,” he said. “If, God forbid, Putin dies, what will happen to our country?”

Anastasia Kharchenko contributed reporting from Moscow and Alina Lobzina from London.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, May 16, 2024 6:42 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Inside Russia's Improvised System For Mobilizing Men For The Ukraine War: An RFE/RL Investigation

By Daniil Belovodyev and Systema | May 15, 2024 18:46 GMT

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-mobilization-ukraine-stealth-recruiting
/32948631.html

Russia officials have used creative ways to avoid calling a new round of mobilization.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, May 20, 2024 12:23 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Reduced to quoting Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty?

How sad!

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, May 20, 2024 7:10 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

West's stance on Ukraine war 'completely nonsensical,' says UK defense secretary

by Chris York | May 19, 2024

https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-sec-says-wests-stance-on-ukrain
e-war-completely-nonsensical/

The West's current stance on the war in Ukraine and delays in military aid are "completely nonsensical," the U.K's defense secretary said on May 19.

In an interview with Sky News, Grant Shapps was asked about comments made earlier this week by President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said Ukraine's international partners "are afraid of Russia losing the war" and would like Kyiv "to win in such a way that Russia does not lose."

Sky News presenter Trevor Phillips asked if the West was "creating a stalemate in the war with Russia in which tens of thousands of people are dying needlessly."

In reply, Shapps said he visited Kyiv in March and made a "very similar point."

"It was a wake-up moment for the West and that by delaying what we should be doing… we were running the risk of doing exactly what President Zelensky is concerned about," he said, referencing delays in U.S. military aid to Ukraine.

"I think this is completely nonsensical for the West. We have to understand we are in an existential battle about the way we run the world order and about democracy itself."

Shapps added that delays in Western military aid particularly from the U.S. were having very visible effects on the battlefield and Russia's advances into Ukraine's Kharkiv region in recent days were a direct consequence.

In a meeting with journalists on May 16 attended by the Kyiv Independent, Zelensky said Kyiv's allies "fear" Russia's loss in the war against Ukraine because it would involve "unpredictable geopolitics."

Washington has not changed its negative position on potential Ukrainian strikes with U.S.-supplied weapons on Russian territory even after Russia had launched its offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, the Pentagon said on May 16.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, May 20, 2024 7:11 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Ukraine war: The trillion-dollar cost to the West

By Nik Martin | May 18, 2024

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-the-trillion-dollar-cost-to-the-west
/a-69106932

Governments face increased borrowing, taxes and public sector cuts to finance their soaring military budgets. European NATO members are set to spend a record $380 billion on defense this year — a tough sell to voters.

If you want a reminder of the security threats faced by the world today, take a look at how much governments have hiked defense spending. Global military budgets reached $2.44 trillion (€2.25 trillion) last year, nearly 7% higher than in 2022. It was the steepest year-on-year rise since 2009, recorded during the second year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

For every man, woman and child, world military spending is now at its highest since the end of the Cold War — at $306 per person.

With Kyiv unprepared to fight such a large-scale conflict, Western countries ramped up military aid to Ukraine, while other escalating tensions with Russia and in the Middle East and Asia also prompted governments to shore up their defenses, unlike any time since World War II.

In 2024, the United States has allocated $886 billion for defense, a rise of more than 8% over two years. For the first time, NATO's European partners are projected to meet the target set by the military alliance of spending 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) — a major bugbear of former US President Donald Trump, as many weren't. This year alone, they've budgeted a collective $380 billion on defense, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said in February.

Poland leads the way (measured by GDP)

While Germany is still playing catch up with other NATO members — helped by Chancellor Olaf Scholz's special €100 billion ($109 billion) fund to upgrade the Bundeswehr armed forces — Poland is due to spend 4.2% of GDP on defense this year, the highest in the military alliance. Others on NATO's eastern flank also far exceed or will soon surpass the 2% target, due to the heightened security threat on their borders.

As a result, governments are facing an increasingly tough choice over how to pay for those new defense commitments, just as many economies weaken due to the effects of the ongoing global geopolitical tensions and lingering inflation. Many countries are already fiscally stretched.

"Short-term commitments for military equipment for Ukraine should be financed with additional debt. That's the way wars have historically been funded," Gunther Wolff, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, told DW. "But for longer-term increased defense spending, either taxes need to go up or you cut other spending."

"Is it painful politically? Sure! But if you spread it across the various government departments, it will be less so."

Germany cuts ministry budgets, apart from defense

Germany, which faces the prospect of lower tax revenues due to weaker growth, has slashed spending across most government departments and has singled out international development aid for an almost €2 billion cut this year.

"Germany has some very significant trade-offs to make," Jeffrey Rathke, president of the American-German Institute at the Johns Hopkins University in Washington D.C., told DW. "They need to be managed politically so that they don't erode public support for strengthened security and defense."

Leftist political parties in several countries have led calls for peace between Russia and Ukraine and have stoked the debate over whether the new military spending could be better spent on health care or social programs.

Rathke noted how Germany's debt brake, which limits the government's ability to borrow money to cover gaps in the budget, meant that Scholz's coalition has less wiggle room compared to, say, France.

While Poland's finances are in much better shape than many Western European countries, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who ousted the right-wing populist government last October, is struggling to deliver on election promises, including raising the limit before income taxes are levied, due to the much higher defense budget.

Other EU states struggle with NATO target

Other countries, such as those hit worst by the 2011 European debt crisis, have already faced deep austerity measures and any further cuts could affect the quality of public services.

Italy, for example, is expected to spend just 1.46% of GDP on defense this year and warned that meeting NATO's 2% target by 2028 would be tricky. The country's debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to hit 137.8% this year.

Other countries in similar fiscal tight spots, like Spain, could find limits on any additional deficits needed to fund new military spending, which could be anything from 0.5% to 1.5% of GDP. Last year, Madrid hiked its defense budget by 26%.

"The European debt crisis forced budgetary adjustments of 5% to 7%, even 10% for Greece," Wolff said. "Fortunately, these cuts will be much less painful than anything the European south had to endure."

Sweden, Norway, Romania and the Netherlands have lower debt burdens. But even so, Dutch far-right firebrand Geert Wilders also plans significant spending on social security housing and agriculture to ensure his new four-party coalition holds.

"As well as the fiscal capacity and the indebtedness problems, this resource debate is overlaid on an ongoing difference of threat perception across Europe," Rathke said, so countries located further from Ukraine may be less keen to prioritize defense than those near its border.
Will Germany spend more on its military long term?

Next target: 3%?

Defense spending is expected to keep increasing over the next decade. NATO's 2% defense spending target was first set in 2014 after war broke out between the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country and Moscow annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula.

Last year, at a meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania, NATO leaders agreed that the target could often exceed 2%. Germany, which until now has struggled to meet the original target, has now mooted the prospect of a 3% budget target, which would have even bigger ramifications for government finances.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, May 21, 2024 5:35 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reiterated the White House's unwillingness to approve Ukraine's use of US-provided weapons in strikes against military targets in Russia following a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (also known as the Ramstein format) on May 20. Austin stated that the US expects that Ukraine will "continue to use the weapons that [the US] provided on targets inside of Ukraine."[19] Austin vaguely noted that "the aerial dynamic is a little bit different," but stated that he would not speculate further. ISW continues to assess that US and other Western limitations on Ukraine's ability to strike military targets in Russia have created a sanctuary in Russia's border areas from which Russian aircraft can conduct glide bomb and missile strikes against Ukrainian positions and settlements and where Russian forces and equipment can freely assemble before entering combat.[20] These US and Western policies are severely compromising Ukraine's ability to defend itself against current Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast or any area along the international border where Russian forces may choose to conduct offensive operations in the future.[21]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-may-20-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, May 21, 2024 5:48 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Biden's Catch-22 in the Russia-Ukraine War

Washington’s backing for Kyiv and avoidance of risk are increasingly at odds.

By Raphael S. Cohen, the director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program at the Rand Corporation’s Project Air Force, and Gian Gentile, the deputy director of the Rand Corporation’s Army Research Division. | May 17, 2024

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/17/ukraine-russia-war-biden-us-aid-a
ssistance-military-nato/

On April 24, Ukraine and its supporters around the world breathed a sigh of relief when U.S. President Joe Biden signed a long-awaited foreign aid bill that provides more than $60 billion in aid to Ukraine. While the bill was ensnared for months in Washington politics, Ukraine’s position on the battlefield was looking increasingly precarious, with its forces literally running out of ammunition as Russia was expected to launch a new offensive. The situation prompted a growing drumbeat of bleak assessments from senior security officials. “The side that can’t shoot back loses,” NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Christopher Cavoli warned. Internal White House assessments were even bleaker. Even the normally upbeat Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, predicted that Ukraine “will lose the war” without additional American support. With the aid, Ukraine now has a fighting chance.

Unfortunately, Ukraine’s challenges go beyond mere resources. The recent fight over the aid package strikes at the heart of the strategic paradox plaguing Biden’s strategy toward Ukraine. On the one hand, Biden has pledged that “our commitment to Ukraine will not weaken” and that U.S. support will be there “for as long as it takes.” At the same time, however, the Biden administration has been steadfastly concerned about escalation and the prospect of a direct confrontation with a nuclear-armed Russia. Judged independently, both are laudable goals—but put together, these objectives are increasingly working at cross purposes. Ultimately, Biden’s balancing will become untenable.

Undergirding the Biden administration’s Ukraine strategy was the idea that, at its core, Kyiv—backed by the collective might of the West—had time on its side. After Ukraine beat back the initial Russian invasion, this appeared to be true. Ukraine had fully mobilized its society to fight the war from the start, whereas Russia—at least initially—had not. Russian casualties were significant, mounting, and almost certainly higher than the Kremlin had anticipated. Hundreds of thousands of Russians were fleeing the country. And that was before Russia felt the bite of economic sanctions, hailed at the time as the “most impactful, coordinated, and wide-ranging economic restrictions in history.” With the situation seeming to favor Ukraine, the Biden administration believed that Kyiv could afford the precautions imposed by Washington in the name of escalation management—including restricting the types of weapons Ukraine received and the targets it was allowed to strike.

Fast-forward two years, and the assumption that time would favor Ukraine looks increasingly doubtful. As Cavoli recently testified, Russia is reconstituting its military “far faster than initial estimates suggested,” and its military is now larger than before the war. Despite the sanctions, the Russian economy posted modest growth in 2023 and is on track to do so again this year. And while Russia has lost tens of thousands of soldiers and seen hundreds of thousands injured, the casualties have not translated into unrest in Russia or visibly shaken the Putin regime.

On the other side of the equation, Ukraine’s strategic position is becoming progressively more perilous. Starved of weapons and ammunition, Ukraine has been forced to cede ground on the battlefront—with Russia making its most significant advances since July 2022 and supposedly gearing up for a summer offensive. Even though U.S. weapons are now flowing again, it will take time for them to make their way to the front.

All the while, Ukraine is bleeding out. Although estimates differ widely, they all place the number of Ukrainians killed in the tens of thousands. The figures are especially significant given Ukraine’s smaller population compared to Russia’s. In fact, Ukraine recently had to lower its draft age, from 27 to 25, to replenish its ranks. In and of itself, that’s neither catastrophic nor unusual. The United States used to draft men at even younger ages and still requires men aged 18 to 25 to register for potential military service. Still, Ukraine’s change in its draft policy is a sign that the country is under increasing strain.

Perhaps even more pressing than the military situation are the political dynamics of the war. A year and a half ago, we wrote that the United States had more patience to back Ukraine than many commentators then believed. The fact that House Speaker Mike Johnson, a former Ukraine skeptic, put his job on the line to finally pass the aid bill reaffirms this point.

Nonetheless, there is no denying that any future Ukraine aid faces significant headwinds. In Gallup polling, Americans today are evenly split between those who believe the United States is doing too little to help Ukraine and those who think it is doing too much. Support for Ukraine aid among Democrats has risen sharply since the last such poll in the fall, whereas Republican support has lagged behind, so that future Ukraine aid may depend on who wins in the U.S. elections.

Ukraine also has fewer opportunities to reverse the strategic narrative. With another war in the Middle East and an upcoming U.S. presidential election, Ukraine does not attract the same level of media attention it once did. Whereas Ukraine sinking another ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet or striking another Russian fuel depot used to make headline news, those same actions get less attention in major Western outlets today. Similarly, the American public does not seem as enthralled by Zelensky’s speeches as it once did. All this means that if trends continue, the political fight over the next tranche of Ukraine aid — whenever that may be — may be even more intense than the past one.

Not all the news is bad. European support remains robust and has been steadily rising. Some countries—including France and Lithuania—have even signaled an openness to committing ground forces to the conflict, whereas others—such as Britain and Norway—are much more willing than the United States to let Ukraine strike targets in Russia. And $60 billion still gives Ukraine a lot of weapons, and with them, a lot of strategic time. Even former U.S. President Donald Trump’s opposition to Ukraine aid has seemingly softened a little, potentially giving some room for Ukraine to regain some Republican support. In other words, Ukraine still has some strategic room to maneuver, but it will need to fight differently if it hopes to reverse this slow decline.

First, Ukraine will need to strike deeper inside Russia proper, for two reasons. Current reporting shows that Russia relies on its internal railway network to support its occupied portions of Ukraine. If Ukraine wants to impede Russian logistical networks, and by extension forestall further Russian advances, it needs to hit these hubs. The other reason is trickier. Even with all the air defenses that the United States, Germany, and others have provided Ukraine over the last two years, it is still far from having sufficient capacity to cover its vast size and intercept everything Russia throws its way. Instead of intercepting arrows, Ukraine needs the ability to shoot the archer—in other words, rather than just trying to intercept missiles and drones in flight, it needs to target Russian air bases, bombers, and missile launchers. That, in turn, means striking Russia.

Britain has already taken a step in this direction by allowing Ukraine to use British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles to hit Russian territory. Now it’s time for the United States to follow Britain’s lead and give the same kind of permission to use the longer-range version of the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System (or ATACMS) to strike Russian operational support targets inside Russia.

Ukraine will also need some kind of air-power capability if it wants to succeed in a ground counteroffensive at some point in the future and evict Russian forces from its country. Russian air power—particularly its attack helicopters and drones—was one of the key reasons Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive petered out. And in contrast to the considerable damage to Russia’s ground forces and Black Sea Fleet, the Russian Air Force has lost only about 10 percent of its aircraft. Consequently, Ukraine needs not only air defense, but also its own air power to neutralize Russian air power, strike Russian bases, and stop Russian armor.

The F-16 fighter aircraft that some U.S. allies in Europe will be sending to Ukraine—after some initial reluctance from the Biden administration—will help in this regard, especially if they are equipped with the right munitions to target Russian forces and supported by sufficient maintenance capability to keep them in the air. Even so, as the commander of the U.S. Air Force in Europe, Gen. James Hecker, has noted, the F-16s are older aircraft that normally require years of training to master. They are unlikely to be a silver bullet for Ukrainian air power.

For Ukraine to get the air-power capability it needs, it will likely need a broader suite of capabilities, including higher-flying, sophisticated drones and electronic warfare capabilities from either ground or air-based platforms. This combination provides a way to create pulses of Ukrainian air superiority, in a given area, over Russian air and ground forces.

Finally, Ukraine will need to take more operational risk if and when it launches a counteroffensive. The long-range strikes against Russian military targets in Russia proper, combined with a pulsed air-power capability, can set the conditions for a ground counteroffensive to succeed. But the Ukrainians will need to accept operational risk and face a likely possibility that the initial days or weeks of this counteroffensive will cost them heavily in casualties and materiel in order to create the kind of operational breakthrough that might shatter Russian defensive lines.

The Ukraine war may look particularly grim at the moment, but the conflict’s outcome is far from preordained. If Ukraine is to regain the operational momentum it has lost, it will need more equipment and munitions. Thanks to the most recent aid packages, Ukraine now has the resources to get them.

But more importantly, Ukraine and its Western backers will also need to change their overall approach. Ukraine can no longer afford to simply wait the Russians out, refrain from striking military and logistical targets inside Russia, and hope that the artillery duels in eastern Ukraine will eventually turn in their favor. It will, instead, need to go on the offensive—and that involves some degree of escalation risk. That’s an easier sell for Ukraine, given that its very existence is on the line.

For the Biden administration, though, accepting such risk will mean abandoning a pillar of its strategy for the past two years, choosing a single path, and accepting the potentially escalatory consequences that might follow. That’s a tough choice. Not choosing, however, may be even riskier.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, May 21, 2024 11:33 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russian colonel's chilling one-word description of what it's like to fight for Putin

EXCLUSIVE: The former Lieutenant Colonel said most Russian soldiers had no motivation to fight and that discipline is being maintained solely through brute force by so-called barrier troops who have orders to shoot deserters.

By John Varga | 12:34, Tue, May 21, 2024

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1901330/russian-colonel-chilling-
one-word-putin-army

A former Russian Lieutenant Colonel has revealed to the Express.co.uk the true extent of the horror and slaughter in Vladimir Putin's army. In a chilling description, he slammed the "bestial" treatment of troops by the president's generals, saying such behaviour had never been seen before in the history of Russia's army.

Sergey Gulyaev served for many years as a high-ranking officer in the Soviet army. As part of his military service, he spent two years with the 58th Automobile Brigade in Afghanistan during the 1980s.

Since leaving the army, he has become a political activist and strident Putin critic, as well as a renowned journalist.

Mr Gulyaev is still part of a Russian veterans' group, which consists of former soldiers who have served from Afghanistan to Chechnya and beyond. As such, he maintains close contacts with officers and soldiers in the Russian army and has relatives fighting in Ukraine.

He said Russia had practically seen two of its armies completely destroyed and that the death count was already at least 10 times higher than in Afghanistan, where the Soviets lost 15,000 troops over a decade-long period.

Ukraine's General Staff estimates that almost 470,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured during the 26 months of fighting.

Mr Gulyaev told the Express: "If we take the figures that Ukraine gives, then we have already lost one and a half armies. The first army entered and was all killed. The second mobilised army has now suffered losses approximately comparable to those of the first."

The former senior officer has carried out his own research from open sources on Russian casualties and his findings have shocked him.

He highlighted the Udmurt Republic located in the Volga Federal district with a population of around one and half million people. His analysis has revealed that at least eight hundred Udmurts have died in just over two years of fighting.

"Almost 1,000 people have died in this war from this one small region," he said. "And this is in just two years of fighting. So, if you take the Afghan war, which lasted 10 years, 80 people from the entire republic died there."

Figures obviously vary for the total death count to date for the Russian army. Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, said in February that some 180,000 Russians had died, while Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, put the figure at 150,000.

The BBC, along with the Meduza media outlet, have been counting new graves in Russian cemeteries and scrolling through social media posts among relatives of soldiers fighting in Ukraine.

They currently conclude that the death toll has passed the 50,000 mark and that the body count was nearly 25 percent higher this year than last.

Mr Gulyaev revealed that troops in the rear were desperate not to be sent to the front because of the horrific conditions and the appalling treatment Russian soldiers are subjected to from their superiors.

He is in contact with officers serving in a mechanical repair unit located just behind the front lines. They told him they were praying not to be sent to the trenches.

"There is a completely different attitude towards frontline soldiers," he explained. "A soldier on the front line stays there for a week to 10 days. No one cares about these people, no one protects them.

"There is such a bestial attitude towards them, even from junior commanders. I have never seen this attitude towards soldiers in any war in Russia's history."

The former Lieutenant Colonel said most Russian soldiers had no motivation to fight and that discipline is being maintained solely through brute force by so-called barrier troops who have orders to shoot deserters.

"Only under gunpoint do the soldiers move forward," he said. "There is no understanding of why they are fighting there. Therefore, the morale of the Russian army today rests on the bayonets of the National Guard and other barrier detachments that stab these unfortunates in the back."

The Russian army has recently opened a new front in the Kharkiv region, making its biggest territorial gains since the beginning of the war.

However, Mr Gulyaev does not think the capture of Ukraine's second largest city is a realistic war aim for Putin's army, nor one of its priorities.

"I don't believe that they will try to take Kharkiv," said Mr Gulyaev. Most likely they will just try to bypass it. Kharkiv cannot be taken. It's a huge city and is in effect a large fortress which Russia does not have the strength to take."

He added that Putin's priorities remained securing complete control over the entire Donbas and Zaporizhzhia regions and this is what they would push for during the summer.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, May 21, 2024 2:13 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Tue, May 21 2024, 1:49 PM EDT

Kremlin says Zelenskyy ‘slipping into hysterics’ wanting the West to get directly involved in the war

(Actually, Putin is ‘slipping into hysterics’ since he ordered nukes to be brought out for training.)

The Kremlin said Tuesday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s latest appeal for more Western aid and involvement in the conflict is due to Ukraine’s “extremely unfavorable” situation on the battlefield.

Russian forces on Tuesday began the first stage of training in the “preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons,” the Ministry of Defense said in a post on Telegram. President Vladimir Putin ordered the drills earlier this month in a move he said was designed to deter military involvement in Ukraine by the West.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/21/ukraine-war-live-updates-latest-news-o
n-russia-and-the-war-in-ukraine.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 22, 2024 5:19 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

This Very Stupid Policy Allows Russian troops to walk up to the Ukrainian border without fear of Ukraine killing them:

Despite the Russian advance, the defense secretary said U.S. weapons shouldn't be used beyond Ukrainian territory. "Our expectation is that they continue to use the weapons that we provided on targets [only] inside of Ukraine," Austin said.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/austin-expectation-ukraine-wont-us-wea
pons-territory-despite-russian-advance/story?id=110400530

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 22, 2024 5:23 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Ukraine’s Western allies should fear Russian victory not Russian defeat

By Peter Dickinson | May 21, 2024

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-western-al
lies-should-fear-russian-victory-not-russian-defeat/

While Russia has a history of unraveling suddenly and dramatically, there is currently little evidence of serious independence movements in any of the country’s ethnic minority republics.

Rather than sparking the next stage in Russia’s long retreat from empire, defeat in Ukraine would be far more likely to bring about the fall of the Putin regime and usher in a period of national reflection and reform. This has been the case following numerous other notable Russian military defeats. After losing the Crimean War in the middle of the nineteenth century, Russia abandoned serfdom. Defeat to Japan in 1905 led to a brief flirtation with parliamentary democracy.

The failed Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s fueled public demands for reform that helped end the Cold War. If the current invasion also ends in defeat, there is every reason to believe Russia will survive intact. After all, while a retreat from Ukraine would be deeply wounding to Russian national pride, it would hardly pose an existential threat to Russia itself.

More about future Russian military action once it wins in Ukraine at https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-western-al
lies-should-fear-russian-victory-not-russian-defeat/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 22, 2024 5:26 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russian authorities recently arrested the former commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA), Major General Ivan Popov, on fraud charges. Popov was largely responsible for Russian defenses against the Ukrainian Summer 2023 counteroffensive in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[16]

Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov fired Popov in July 2023 after Popov voiced his concerns over the need for troop rotations in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid the Ukrainian Summer 2023 counteroffensive.[23] Popov claimed in leaked audio that former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu dismissed him for expressing persistent grievances about problems in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[24]

The Kremlin is likely using the pattern of recent arrests of high-ranking officials on corruption charges in the Russian MoD to conceal the real reasons for Popov's punishment almost 10 months after his conflict with the Russian military command and subsequent dismissal from his command position. Russian authorities likely did not want to publicly punish Popov in July 2023 out of fear of a rush of public support for the competent commander. The Kremlin also likely did not want to draw attention to issues in the Russian military command in the aftermath of the June 2023 Wagner Group's rebellion.[25] Popov's arrest comes after multiple recent high-profile arrests of MoD officials reportedly close to Shoigu on corruption charges.[26] The Kremlin likely hopes that arresting Popov in the middle of this alleged wide-scale anti-corruption campaign will minimize attention to Popov's previous insubordination. Popov's arrest, however, sends a clear signal to Russian military commanders that insubordinate senior officers will face serious punishments eventually and that Russian President Vladimir Putin values loyalty over competence.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-may-21-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 22, 2024 5:58 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Reduced to quoting Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty?

How sad!

When the Kremlin first announced the September 2022 “partial” mobilization, “[officials] didn’t think about the consequences and went head first,” Tabalov told The Moscow Times.

“Now, after facing the public backlash, the resistance and the resentment, [the authorities] are acting in a more skillful and calculated way, sending to the front line those who want it and those who can’t refuse.”

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/05/21/how-russias-covert-mobilizat
ion-finds-manpower-for-the-war-in-ukraine-a85168

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 22, 2024 8:13 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

A Ukrainian commander had Russian troops in his sights but couldn't attack.
He says a US rule is to blame – May 22, 2024, 5:45 AM CDT

• A Ukrainian commander said his unit was forced to watch as Russia amassed troops across the border.

• He said they weren't allowed to attack them with US-supplied weaponry.

• If the US had lifted its ban, they could've taken out the troops and stopped an attack.

A Ukrainian commander operating near the Russian border described how his unit watched as Russia amassed a huge force but had to wait for the troops to cross the border to hit them.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-troops-in-sight-couldnt-attack-
us-ban-ukraine-commander-2024-5

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, May 22, 2024 9:21 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

May 22, 2024

Russian forces have conducted offensive operations since Fall 2023 that aimed to convince the West to abandon its commitment to Ukraine, and prolonged US debates about security assistance likely convinced the Kremlin that its efforts had partially succeeded. The effects of continued delays in US and Western security assistance set conditions for Russian forces to make more significant gains on the battlefield than they had previously been able to make, and the Russian military command likely concluded that Russian forces would be able to collapse the Ukrainian frontline at some point in the near to medium term.

Ukrainian forces nevertheless prevented Russian forces from making operationally significant advances and limited the areas where Russian forces managed to make tactically significant gains even as Western supplies dwindled. The US decision to resume aid in late April 2024 and Europe's increasing efforts to mobilize support for Ukraine marked the failure of Russia's effort to convince the West to accept Russian victory. However, the course of operations over the past seven months has likely convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command that continuous Russian offensive operations will let Russia gradually subsume Ukraine and destroy Ukrainian statehood piece by piece.

Putin has likely concluded that weakening Western support for Ukraine over time is a valid theory of victory for him and will likely continue efforts to convince the West to surrender and allow Russia to destroy Ukrainian statehood.

Putin and the Russian military also appear to have concluded that Ukraine will be unable to regain territories the Russians can seize and that creeping Russian advances even at high cost will therefore ultimately lead to overall Russian success. These apparent Russian assessments will encourage Putin to continue the war in pursuit of ultimate total victory.

More at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/how-delays-western-aid-g
ave-russia-initiative-ukrainian-counteroffensive-kharkiv

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, May 23, 2024 5:49 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Kremlin appears to be developing a system to legalize the status of Russia's so-called “compatriots abroad,” likely as part of its efforts to set information conditions to justify further aggression and hybrid operations abroad as “protecting” Russia's compatriots. Russian Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Compatriots Living Abroad, and International Humanitarian Cooperation (Rossotrudnichestvo) General Director Yevgeny Primakov stated during an interview with Kremlin newswire TASS published on May 22 that Rossotrudnichestvo is developing an “Electronic Card of Compatriots” program that will allow Russia's compatriots abroad to access unspecified government services, visit and work in Russia, and even apply for Russian citizenship in the future.[12] Primakov stated that Russia is preparing to launch a pilot version of the program in several unspecified neighboring countries and may begin issuing the first cards by the end of 2024. Primakov stated that Russia's compatriots can provide their personal identifiable information through an online application in exchange for a card and access to these various services, which will presumably be available through an unspecified online platform. Primakov noted that while some of Russia's compatriots abroad do not have Russian citizenship and are “skeptical” of Russia's policies, they are still compatriots in “one way or another” and that this program will help compatriots and their children maintain ties with Russia. Primakov estimated that Russia has between 20 and 40 million compatriots abroad, although it is unclear what definition of “compatriot abroad” Primakov is using. Primakov also emphasized the importance of Russia's educational and cultural exchange programs with students from Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and other countries and noted that the Russian government has been increasing the number of foreign students allowed to study in Russia over the past several years. Primakov stated that Russia has set a goal of having 500,000 foreign students studying in Russia every year by 2030. Primakov noted that Rossotrudnichestvo is having issues operating in the US, United Kingdom (UK), Canada, and other Western countries due to “unfriendly” Western policies and absurdly claimed that Russian Houses (Russkyi Dom) in Europe “do not engage in political propaganda or anything else” and only conduct “cultural activities.” Moldovan and Ukrainian officials have previously warned that Russian officials use Russkyi Dom to promote Russian propaganda and conduct “subversive work” abroad.[13]

Rossotrudnichestvo has been working on the “Electronic Card of Compatriots” project since at least 2021 but has yet to publicly launch the program, and Primakov stated in June 2023 that Rossotrudnichestvo plans to open “certification centers” in Russkyi Dom centers throughout the world where compatriots can verify their identity as part of the application process.[14] The Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP), a Kremlin-controlled organization and a known tool within the Russian hybrid warfare toolkit, issued a series of recommendations during the World Russian People's Council on March 27 and 28, which included a call for Russia to prioritize the mass repatriation of “compatriots” to Russia, and the “Electronic Card of Compatriots” program could be a viable pathway for Russia to pursue this recommendation.[15] Russia's compatriots abroad — whom Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously defined as anyone with historical, cultural, or linguistic ties to Russia — are a key aspect of the Kremlin's Russkyi Mir (Russian World) narrative, which the Kremlin intends to use to justify future Russian aggression under the guise of “protecting” Russian compatriots.[16] The Russian government previously eased language and ancestry requirements for compatriots interested in moving to Russia and may be attempting to further broaden its vague definition of a compatriot to encompass as many people as possible.[17]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-may-22-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, May 23, 2024 5:55 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

The Real World will decide who is wrong and who is right. In the end, it doesn't matter who argues what. If you fail, whatever level , you fail. You might think you're King of the Hill, but if the universe disagrees with you, you'll be nothing. Bc you're not bigger than the universe.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, May 23, 2024 5:55 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

How Could A Ukrainian Drone Weighing Just A Few Pounds Blow Up A 46-Ton Russian Tank? The Warhead Is The Answer

It seems some Ukrainian drones can conduct top-down attacks.

By David Axe | May 22, 2024, 08:00am EDT

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/22/how-could-a-ukrainian
-drone-weighing-just-a-few-pounds-blow-up-a-46-ton-russian-tank-the-warhead-is-the-answer/?sh=2858a2b757dc

Ukrainian workshops build more than 100,000 explosive first-person-view drones every month for the Ukrainian military. That’s a lot of drones. But each drone weighs just a few pounds and typically carries a single grenade weighing just a pound or so.

So while 100,000 drones represent a lot of firepower, it’s not very heavy firepower. FPV drones are extremely dangerous to exposed infantry, but armored vehicles can usually shrug off multiple strikes by FPVs—and keep fighting.

That appears to be changing, however. It seems Ukrainian drone crews have found some way to massively boost the explosive potential of a single FPV. Consider the Russian T-80 tank that rolled toward Ukrainian lines in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast recently.

As a surveillance drone from the Ukrainian army’s 47th Mechanized Brigade observed from high overhead, an FPV drone zipped past the 46-ton, three-person T-80—which sported blocks of add-on reactive armor as well as an anti-drone screen—and then turned around.

The quadcopter FPV barreled toward the T-80. Normally, an FPV strike on a tank would result in minor damage. This time, however, the T-80 exploded in a massive fireball that separated the turret from the hull and incinerated the crew.

Did the FPV crew get lucky? Or was some new technology at work? Trent Telenko, a former quality auditor with the U.S. Defense Contract Management Agency, suspected the latter. “I am beginning to wonder if Ukrainian FPV builders have stolen [an idea] from the Swedish RBS-56,” Telenko wrote.

The RBS-56 is an anti-tank missile, designed by Swedish firm Bofors, that packs a 25-pound warhead which, triggered by sensors on the missile’s underside, explodes downward instead of forward. This top-down attack method targets the thin armor on a tank’s topside.

The FPV that blew up that T-80 appears to have pierced the tank’s hull from above and struck its ammunition storage, triggering a devastating secondary explosion. “Something so simple makes an FPV far more lethal,” Telenko noted.

Telenko wasn’t just speculating. The Ukrainians have received, from their foreign allies, potentially thousands of Next-Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapon missiles. The 28-pound NLAW is, like the RBS-56, a Bofors product—and borrows the RBS-56’s downward-blasting warhead.

There’s at least one video circulating on social media depicting Ukrainian troops removing the missile from a damaged NLAW launcher, “apparently [to] use the warhead in an FPV,” according to weapons historian Matthew Moss.

That pairing—an FPV with an NLAW warhead—“would be interesting,” Moss mused. For unfortunate Russian tank crews, it might mean instant death.

To be clear, Ukrainian troops don’t have to cannibalize donated NLAWs in order to supply their drone teams with top-down warheads. Ukrainian industry is perfectly capable of producing downward-blasting munitions from scratch.

If the Ukrainians take the same approach to warhead production that they bring to drone production—build lots of different types in lots of small workshops—then there may not be just one kind of top-down drone munition in the Ukrainian arsenal. There may be several kinds.

It’s increasingly apparent the Ukrainians have some top-down munitions for their FPV drones. There aren’t many other ways tiny drones can turn giant tanks into towering fireballs.

Sources:

1. 47th Mechanized Brigade: https://x.com/NAFORaccoon/status/1792132699336888408

2. Trent Telenko: https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1792264317426975177

3. Matthew Moss: https://x.com/historicfirearm/status/1780201160416088391

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, May 23, 2024 6:17 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Russia advancing on all fronts, including in the north.
Zelenskiy no longer the Constitutional President.

Need I say more?

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, May 23, 2024 12:56 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Russia advancing on all fronts, including in the north.
Zelenskiy no longer the Constitutional President.

Need I say more?

You forgot that Biden is protecting Putin's feelings:

Inside the White House, a Debate Over Letting Ukraine Shoot U.S. Weapons Into Russia

By David E. Sanger | May 23, 2024, 7:47 AM ET

Since the first American shipments of sophisticated weapons to Ukraine, President Biden has never wavered on one prohibition: President Volodymyr Zelensky had to agree to never fire them into Russian territory, insisting that would violate Mr. Biden’s mandate to “avoid World War III.”

But the consensus around that policy is fraying. Propelled by the State Department, there is now a vigorous debate inside the administration over relaxing the ban to allow the Ukrainians to hit missile and artillery launch sites just over the border in Russia — targets that Mr. Zelensky says have enabled Moscow’s recent territorial gains.

The proposal, pressed by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken after a sobering visit to Kyiv last week, is still in the formative stages, and it is not clear how many of his colleagues among Mr. Biden’s inner circle have signed on. It has not yet been formally presented to the president, who has traditionally been the most cautious, officials said.

The State Department spokesman, Matthew A. Miller, declined to comment on the internal deliberations over Ukraine policy, including Mr. Blinken’s report after his return from Kyiv.

But officials involved in the deliberations said Mr. Blinken’s position had changed because the Russians had opened a new front in the war, with devastating results. Moscow’s forces have placed weapons right across the border from northeastern Ukraine, and aimed them at Kharkiv — knowing the Ukrainians would only be able to use non-American drones and other weaponry to target them in response.

In an interview with The New York Times this week, Mr. Zelensky said the inability to fire American missiles and other weaponry at military targets in Russia gave Moscow a “huge advantage.”

For months, Mr. Zelensky has been mounting attacks on Russian ships, oil facilities and electricity plants, but he has been doing so largely with Ukrainian-made drones, which don’t pack the power and speed of the American weapons. And increasingly, the Russians are shooting down the Ukrainian drones and missiles or sending them astray, thanks to improved electronic warfare techniques.

Now, the pressure is mounting on the United States to help Ukraine target Russian military sites, even if Washington wants to maintain its ban on attacking oil refineries and other Russian infrastructure with American-provided arms. Britain, usually in lockstep with Washington on war strategy, has quietly lifted its own restrictions, so that its “Storm Shadow” cruise systems can be used to target Russia more broadly.

The British foreign secretary, David Cameron, a former prime minister, said during a visit to Kyiv ahead of Mr. Blinken’s that Ukraine “absolutely has the right to strike back at Russia.”

The United States is now considering training Ukrainian troops inside the country, rather than sending them to a training ground in Germany. That would require putting American military personnel in Ukraine, something else that Mr. Biden has prohibited until now. It raises the question of how the United States would respond if the trainers, who would likely be based near the western city of Lviv, came under attack. The Russians have periodically targeted Lviv, though it is distant from the main areas of combat.

Another hint of a shift came in recent days. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, in repeating the usual administration position — “our expectation is that they continue to use the weapons that we’ve provided on targets inside of Ukraine” — seemed to suggest that there may be exceptions made for Russian aircraft operating in the safety of Russian territory, just over the border, enabling pilots to release glide bombs into eastern Ukraine.

“The aerial dynamic’s a little bit different,” Mr. Austin allowed, but he struggled to articulate the new standard. “And so — but again, don’t — don’t want to speculate on any — any one or — or any type of engagement here at the podium, so.”

When a reporter followed up by asking whether such aerial operations by the Russians were “off-limits or not off-limits?” Mr. Austin did not respond.

The Russians are accustomed to such debates, and they have been unsubtle in playing to American concerns about an escalation of the war.

This week they began very public exercises with the units that would be involved in the use of tactical nuclear weapons, the kind that would be used on Ukrainian troops. Russian news reports said it was “a response to provocative statements and threats from Western officials against Russia.”

But the administration appears less sensitive to such threats than it was in the early days of the war, or in October 2022, when there were fears that Russia, its forces failing, might use those weapons against Ukrainian military targets. During that incident, some administration officials, picking up conversations among Russian officers, feared there was a 50 percent chance a nuclear weapon could be detonated.

The current exercises, in contrast, are being dismissed as bluster and muscle-flexing.

In a notable break from the administration’s public position, Victoria Nuland, who left her position as No. 3 official in the State Department this spring, is now making a public argument that the administration needs to drop its ban on the use of its weapons against targets inside Russia.

“I think if the attacks are coming directly from over the line in Russia, that those bases ought to be fair game,” she said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”

“I think it’s time for that because Russia has obviously escalated this war,” she added, noting that Russia’s attack on Kharkiv is an effort “to decimate it without ever having to put a boot on the ground. So I think it is time to give the Ukrainians more help hitting these bases inside Russia.”

Ms. Nuland was always among a far more hawkish camp inside the administration, and her view was in the minority. But over time she won more and more of the arguments over whether to send more sophisticated missiles and artillery systems to Ukraine, and each time Mr. Biden relented, the worst fears he had about escalation did not materialize.

In his interview with the Times, Mr. Zelensky dismissed fears of escalation, saying President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had already escalated the war. And he thought it unlikely that Mr. Putin would ever make good on his threat to unleash a nuclear weapon.

Mr. Biden and some of his aides are clearly not convinced. Over the past year they have said they believe there is some red line out there that would unleash a more severe reaction from Mr. Putin. They just don’t know exactly where that is, or what the reaction might be.

In private with Mr. Blinken last week and in his interview with The Times, Mr. Zelensky argued that at this desperate stage of the war, it was critical to let him use American weapons against Russian military units.

“This is part of our defense,” Mr. Zelensky told The Times. “How can we protect ourselves from these attacks? This is the only way.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/us/politics/white-house-ukraine-wea
pons-russia.html

David E. Sanger covers the Biden administration and national security. He has been a Times journalist for more than four decades and has written several books on challenges to American national security.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, May 23, 2024 3:20 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Since this thread seems to be about Russia, here is some info:

Quote:
Before he [Belousev, new Defense Minister of Russia] could hardly step foot into the Duma hall, news broke of a further MOD official being cuffed for corruption: high ranking Yuri Kuznetsov, as well as some affiliated underlings swept up in his alleged corruption scheme. ... just given the arrests of big wigs Kuznetsov and Ivanov alone, with attendant underlings, makes it an unprecedented ongoing purge, with further rumors of other MOD-linked officials to potentially be taken down in the near future as part of the widening dragnet.

...

In short: Putin appears to have effected a coup in cleaning out a very diseased strain within the MOD, fortifying his executive station with a cadre of ultra hardline loyalists with proven track records. And right on time, there are now rumors that Surovikin has finally arrived in Moscow, for real this time—or so Rybar claims; a meeting in the Kremlin was allegedly being carried out. This could portend a big coming appointment for him, if true.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-51424-putin-cleans-house-as

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, May 24, 2024 7:14 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Since this thread seems to be about Russia, here is some info:

This thread is about Putin. Putin should have easily won his little special military operation in weeks but the invasion drags on and on and on since Putin's way is not an efficient way to run a war. Stalin ran his military similarly and the results were tens of millions of Russian deaths versus only a few million German deaths https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties so maybe Putin's way is the best that Russians can do:

The Kremlin is pursuing a concerted effort to remove senior Russian defense officials and has likely expanded this effort to senior officers commanding Russian combat operations in Ukraine. The Russian Investigative Committee announced on May 23 the arrests of Russian Deputy Chief of the General Staff and Head of its Main Communications Directorate Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin and Head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) Department for State Procurement, Vladimir Verteletsky.[1] Shamarin is accused of accepting a bribe of at least 36 million rubles (about $392,000), and two defendants in the Russian telecommunications industry have agreed to testify against him.[2] Verteletsky is accused of corruption and accepting a large bribe with total damages of 70 million rubles (about $763,000).[3] Five senior Russian MoD officials and former military commanders have been arrested on corruption charges since the arrest of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on April 24, and a Russian insider source previously claimed that six more MoD officials plan to resign following former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's removal from the MoD.[4] The Kremlin is likely using the guise of corruption charges as an excuse to hide the real reasons for ousting specific individuals from the MoD who have fallen from favor, as ISW has recently assessed.[5]

Russian ultranationalist milbloggers also claimed that the Russian MoD dismissed the commander of the 20th Combined Arms Army (Moscow Military District [MMD], formerly Western Military District [WMD]), Lieutenant General Sukhrab Akhmedov.[6] ISW is unable to confirm Akhmedov's removal, but claims of his removal are notable as this would be the first removal of an officer actively commanding Russian forces in Ukraine as a part of the most recent round of dismissals. The 20th CAA is currently heavily committed to offensive operations in the Lyman direction and failed to achieve significant tactical gains in the area during the Winter-Spring 2024 offensive on the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis.[7] The milbloggers also directly connected Akhmedov's arrest with significant command issues in Ukraine, referencing their prior complaints about Akhmedov by name for his role in commanding attritional Russian assaults near Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast in winter 2022–2023 when he commanded the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade or his role in Russian forces suffering significant casualties due to a Ukrainian rear area strike in summer 2023.[8]

Official Kremlin statements and milblogger speculation about the arrests and command changes signal that more senior officers could face removal. Russian state newswire TASS cited Russian law enforcement on May 23 as saying there will be continued investigations in connection with Shamarin's arrest.[9] Some Russian milbloggers and insider sources have alleged that some of the arrested officials have ties to Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov but have largely not gone so far as to claim that Gerasimov himself will be removed.[10] Peskov oddly stated on May 13 that "no changes are foreseen yet" when specifically asked about Gerasimov's position, however, suggesting that Gerasimov's tenure over the longer term is not assured.[11] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov notably denied on May 23 that there is a "campaign" against Russian MoD officials, instead asserting that the MoD arrests are part of a consistent fight against corruption.[12] Peskov has previously deflected reporters' questions about the Russian MoD, and his decision to answer questions about the MoD's command changes and arrests indicates that the Kremlin may want its support of these purges.[13] Peskov's claim that the removals are part of a consistent effort are difficult to square with the sudden flurry of dismissals and arrests at an anomalous rate and with high publicity.

Russian milbloggers largely celebrated the arrests of Russian MoD officials they have claimed were inept and speculated about possible additional removals of senior commanders and officials. Russian ultranationalist milbloggers celebrated the arrests of Shamarin and Verteletsky and the alleged removal of Akhmedov and have offered criticisms of MoD officials and military officers more vocally than they had been doing before the start of the arrests in late April.[14] The milbloggers began speculating about which officials and commanders could be removed or charged next. Some named a deputy defense minister as likely next to face investigation and pointed to supposed connections between arrested or dismissed individuals and remaining MoD and military officials, presumably to indicate future possible targets.[15] Many milbloggers vaguely claimed that Russian authorities are not done with their investigations and detentions of these officials and celebrated the arrests as the start of an effort to bring corrupt officials to justice under new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.[16] The Kremlin is likely allowing these criticisms because they are specifically directed against individuals the MoD is targeting, thereby supporting Belousov's image as the one who will solve issues within the MoD in a way that Shoigu has not. The Kremlin also benefits from allowing the milbloggers to emphasize that no Russian defense or military official is safe from the consequences of falling from Putin's favor. The Kremlin is likely attempting to secure the loyalty of the milbloggers who have long argued for significant changes in the Russian MoD and military command by allowing them to criticize the ousted individuals after months of active censorship and self-censorship as long as the criticism advances larger Kremlin objectives.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-may-23-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, May 24, 2024 1:46 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND
This thread is about Putin.

Really?
I thought it was about the tsars. Stalin. Russian corruption and bloodthirstiness. More Stalin. The Russian people genetically selected for stupidity. The tsars. And Stalin, again. The Russian character going all the way back to caveman days.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, May 24, 2024 2:13 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND
This thread is about Putin.

Really?
I thought it was about the tsars. Stalin. Russian corruption and bloodthirstiness. More Stalin. The Russian people genetically selected for stupidity. The tsars. And Stalin, again. The Russian character going all the way back to caveman days.

During a radio interview on Friday, Orbán admitted that his ally may be in way over his head as the Russia-Ukraine war rages on. "If the Russians were strong enough to defeat the Ukrainians in one go, they would have been defeated, but that's not what we're seeing," Orbán said.

https://www.newsweek.com/viktor-orban-vladimir-putin-ally-russia-ukrai
ne-war-1904547

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, May 24, 2024 4:56 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Russia's MoD General Staff doesn't inform Orban of their plans. But Orban is, of course, free to say whatever he thinks.

*****

I'm trying to see where this all ends.

Putin nominated a new Minister of Defense, and he will apparently be charged with controlling costs. He is also supposed to ensure that $ spent on the military will transmit to the civilian state sector bc military spending is, according to some, 6.7% of GDP (AFA rooting out corruption, that's probably more the FSB's remit.)

So this might be an expensive war for Russia.

It's catastrophic for Ukraine, but Russia isn't fighting JUST Ukraine, it's fighting a Ukraine that is armed and trained, and assisted by the west with intel, targeting programs, volunteers, spec ops, and everything the west can contribute without becoming blatant participants.

As Ukraine loses more and more - more territory, more weaponry, and especially more soldiers - the west, and especially the USA, keeps upping the assistance as much as it can.

There are limits: the west has ruled out regular "boots on the ground" NATO troops. Altho it nibbles around the edges with volunteers, covert spec ops, "trainers", technicians to program missiles. There is even an actual American general in Ukraine to oversee Kiev's war effort.

Negotiating with Russia is off the table. The only resolution will be a military one. That could mean either a stalemate (which I, the DoD, and the CIA don't foresee) or an outright Russian victory and Ukrainian defeat.

But as the west commits more and more to the fight, Ukrainian's defeat will be seen more and more as a NATO defeat.

So, what to do? Biden (the non compos mentis President) is apparently irrationally determined to "defeat Putin" despite the CIA and Pentagon telling him the war is lost/ not worth further commitment. Sullivan and especially Blinken are also irrationally committed to Ukraine.

There are opinions being published of the "but China" variety. They might be an attempt to distract Biden* from Ukraine, or provide a face-saving excuse to turn off the Ukraine tap, but Blinken and Biden, with the intransigence of the ideologically possessed and confused elderly, just "allowed" Ukraine to use long range ATACMS on Russia. Something they had previously forbade.

How will this end? What threshold, if any, will cause Biden & Co to throw in the towel? If Zelenskiy and his staff flee Ukraine? If Russia rolls over the Ukrainian army to the Dnieper?

Or will it take a change of administrations to stop escalating?

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, May 25, 2024 7:40 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated on May 24 that NATO member states should consider lifting restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.[59] Stoltenberg stated that these restrictions make it difficult for Ukrainian forces to defend against the Russian offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast. ISW continues to assess that Western limitations on Ukraine's ability to strike military targets in Russia have created a sanctuary in Russia's border area from which Russian aircraft can conduct glide bomb and missile strikes against Ukrainian positions and where Russian forces and equipment can freely assemble before entering combat.[60]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-may-24-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, May 25, 2024 7:42 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russia is currently preparing for the possibility of a conventional war with NATO, and the Kremlin will likely view anything short of Ukrainian capitulation as an existential threat to Russia's ability to fight such a war.[19]

Russian military leaders planning a war against NATO will have to assume that Ukraine might enter such a war on NATO’s behalf regardless of Ukraine’s membership status.[20] A front with NATO along Russia's entire western border with Europe presents the Russian military with serious challenges, as ISW has previously assessed, whereas a Ukrainian defeat would give Russia the ability to deploy its forces along Europe's entire eastern flank from the Black Sea to Finland.[21]

Russian victory in Ukraine would not only remove the threat of Ukraine as a potential adversary during a possible conventional war with NATO but would also provide Russia with further resources and people to commit to a large-scale confrontation with NATO. Regardless of how Russian victory would partition Ukraine between Russian annexation and the Kremlin-controlled puppet state that would follow Putin's desired regime change, Russia would have access to millions more people it could impress into military service and the majority of Ukraine's resources and industrial capacity.

Putin and the Kremlin therefore likely view victory in Ukraine as a prerequisite to being able to fight a war with NATO and any ceasefire or negotiated settlement short of full Ukrainian capitulation as a temporary pause in their effort to destroy an independent Ukrainian state.

The Kremlin will continue to feign interest in negotiations at critical moments in the war to influence Western decision-making on support for Ukraine and to continue efforts to extract preemptive concessions from the West. The Kremlin has repeatedly engaged in a large-scale reflexive control campaign that aims to influence Western decision-making.[22] Reflexive control is a key element in Russia's hybrid warfare toolkit and relies on shaping an adversary with targeted rhetoric and information operations in such a way that the adversary voluntarily takes actions that are advantageous to Russia.[23]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-may-24-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, May 25, 2024 12:11 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Who would have guessed that the cheese-eating surrender monkeys would want to economize, preferring someone else to pay?

Europe still unsure over US plan on Russian assets to pay for Ukraine

As G7 finance ministers met, governments fear they will be on the hook for Washington’s proposal to hand Ukraine a huge loan.

By Gregorio Sorgi | May 25, 2024, 12:07 pm CET

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-us-joe-biden-russia-war-g7-russ
ian-assets-to-pay-for-ukraine/

European countries will only reluctantly agree to a U.S. push to use the profits of frozen Russian assets to issue a large loan to Ukraine.

With finance ministers of the G7 group of advanced economies meeting in Italy on Saturday, the EU’s most powerful capitals demanded guarantees from the U.S. that Europe won’t end up bearing the costs of what they see as Washington’s pet project.

For months, the U.S. has been pushing its European allies to look into alternative ways to raise cash for Kyiv amid fears that existing funds to the war-torn country will run out as early as next year.

Although the G7 is “making progress” on a U.S.-led proposal to “bring forward” the future profits of the assets to issue a loan of up to $50 billion, according to its statement on Saturday, countries such as France and Germany fear their taxpayers will be on the hook if Kyiv can't pay the loan back once the war is over.

The EU has more skin in the game because it holds the bulk of Russia’s frozen assets, while U.S. banks only keep a negligible amount of funds.

“We still need to understand the different options," said German Finance Minister Christian Lindner. "We need to assess the economic, legal consequences so it’s much too early to be concrete on some of the elements of such an instrument.”

After months of disagreement, the finance ministers gathering in Italy tried to show a united front, but cracks soon emerged as EU counties showed only lukewarm support for the U.S. plan.

Europe stands to lose

Europe is worried that agreeing to the U.S. proposal would give Washington a PR win, while they will ultimately be the ones footing the bill.

Under the plan, yearly interest on the assets would be used to pay the loan back, but European officials are keen to sketch out a backup plan in case the assets are handed back to Russia when the war is over.

(Return the assets to Russia!? Apparently, the cheese-eating surrender monkeys are not yet certain Russia owes Ukraine damages. Maybe Putin's explanation that Ukraine is fighting a proxy war for NATO is confusing the monkeys?)

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, May 25, 2024 1:13 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Since most of Russia's assets are in being held in Euroclear, and taking either the interest or the assets themselves, or using them as collateral is INTERNATIONALLY ILLEGAL, almost all of the downside falls on Europe, and Euroclear specifically.

So, what is Euroclear?

It is an international bank and investment firm that offers a wide variety of services such as bond issuance in acvordance with

Quote:
local market practices, or anticipating global regulatory changes

Banking services while

Quote:
protecting your assets and connecting you to markets and their participants across the globe.

Settlement, collateral management, etc
https://www.euroclear.com/services/en.html

What Euroclear sells is SAFETY and liquidity.

According to The Duran, multiple lawyers and central bank managers have warned Brussels against seizing Russian assets or interest, or using it as collateral.

Two bad things could happen as a result:

Wealthy depositors and nations will start withdrawing their funds or stop using Euroclear because their funds may also be seized or used as collateral (which is the same as being seized)

Russia will take legal action, not in the western arena where it will never get a fair settlement, but in some place like Singapore, where Euroclear also operates.

So, like I said, almost all of the downside falls on Europe, and Euroclear specifically. It could lead to a drop in the Euro's value on fx markets.

What does the EU get out of it? If they wanted to fund the Ukraine proxy war, or its day to day operations, or reconstruction, they should more safely issue their own bonds based on EU collateral. This is America forcing EU nations to do something that is harmful to them.

And, in the end, what do these bonds get the EU? More money doesn't mean more weapons for Ukraine, bc that would require developing an entire arms industry in Europe, and preferably one that could decide on common designs and part out the production across nations, since a hodge podge of weapons requires different parts, maintenance, and training.

It DOES run a fuckton of $$$ thru Brussels, tho, and like any good bureacracy they would LOVE to see their budget increase, even if ... no, especially if .... it fucks over individual European nations

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, May 25, 2024 2:12 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Dangerous NATO escalation

According to Military Summary Channel (a pro- Ukranian website) NATO is using Ukraine to target Russian strategic assets ... e.g. radar installations that detect western nuclear launches.

Per Dima, Ukraine used ATACMS to destroy a satellite radar in Crimea and drones to attack a building in Russia that detects western nuclear launches. Since Ukraine is not about to launch nuclear weapons and Russia is not about to attack Ukraine with nuclear weapons (per Dima) targeting Russian strategic installations only benefits NATO and must have been done on NATO orders.

Meanwhile, Putin, Belousev, and Lavrov went to Belarus and had a long talk with Lukashenko. If what Dima said is true (he does sometimes catastrophize on Ukraine's behalf) it might be to, among other things, place Russian strategic installations in Belarus, making them illegal targets in NATO'S war on Russia. That coukd also mean that Belarus has to stay out of the war, but that the west might either try another regime change in Belarus or attempt to provoke Belarus military action with military provocations on Belarus' border.

With videos of the war today

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, May 25, 2024 6:03 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

What Euroclear sells is SAFETY and liquidity.

You and The Duran are too funny, worrying that Euroclear will permanently lose Russia as a customer! What next? China invades Taiwan and Euroclear loses China as a customer? Tragic for Euroclear! North Korea invades South Korea and Euroclear loses North Korea as a customer? Think of all the businesses Euroclear could lose from war!

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, May 25, 2024 6:44 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
The Kremlin continues to add European officials to Russia's wanted list as part of Russia's efforts to assert the jurisdiction of Russian federal law over sovereign NATO member states

Oh, you mean like the EU and USA tried to assert their jurisdiction via the ICC over the sovereign state of Russia??

A funny thing. Russia has never signed the Rome Statute recognizing the ICC.
Even funnier, neither has the USA!

Do try to keep up!

Problems with the Russian elite. Oh well...

T

Will Russian Army Mutiny Soon? (the signs of a mutiny are up in the air)

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, May 25, 2024 7:47 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

What Euroclear sells is SAFETY and liquidity.[

SEVOND: You and The Duran are too funny, worrying that Euroclear will permanently lose Russia as a customer!

Are you as dense as THUGR???

Yes ... China. (China not about to attack Taiwan. But that doesn't matter. The USA will gin up some kind of provocation.)
Qatar.
Saudi Arabia.
Libya.
Iraq.
Nigeria.
Niger.
ASEAN.
Turkey.
India.
All manner of high net worth individuals.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, May 26, 2024 7:48 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

US warns Russia of total destruction if nukes are used in Ukraine — Polish FM

May 25, 2024, 05:55 AM

https://english.nv.ua/nation/us-warns-russia-of-total-destruction-in-u
kraine-over-nukes-50421717.html

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski expressed skepticism about Russia's threats to use nuclear weapons, saying that the United States warned Russia it would destroy all its targets in Ukraine if they did so, according to an interview with The Guardian on May 25.

"Americans told the Russians that if you detonate a nuclear bomb, even if it doesn't kill anyone, we will hit all your targets and positions in Ukraine with conventional weapons and destroy them all," Sikorsky said.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, May 26, 2024 7:53 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

2 Yale researchers are pulling back the curtain on Russia's sanctions-stricken economy — and it's landed them on a list of Putin's enemies

By Jennifer Sor | May 25, 2024, 10:07 AM CDT

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-putin-moscow-sanctions-
jeffrey-sonnenfeld-steven-tian-yale-2024-5

• Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian, two Yale researchers, have issued dire predictions for Russia's economy.

• Their work has landed them on a list of sanctioned individuals in Russia.

• In their view, the country's economy is in shambles, and Putin could end up losing the support of the people.

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian, two researchers at the Yale School of Management, have been targeted for their views on Russia's economy since the war in Ukraine began.

Over the last few years, they've found themselves on Vladimir Putin's watch list for stating what they see as a simple truth: the Russian economy is in trouble, and there's only so much cherry-picking of the data that can obscure that fact.

Moscow has fiercely defended its vision of a prospering economy, but the evidence speaks for itself, Sonnenfeld and Tian say. Soaring prices and ailing consumer sentiment have hit key sectors in Russia's economy, and Moscow is paying a huge cost to keep its war machine running.

The nation is in such dire straits that citizens could even start turning on Putin later this year, they predicted, assuming the West continues to supply military and financial aid to Ukraine.

"We can list for you what Putin has concealed – suddenly – the past three years. If his economy was performing at the level he claims, he'd provide the data and not hide those facts," Sonnenfeld told Business Insider in an interview. "Putin survives only by cannibalizing Russian businesses – throwing the living room furniture into the furnace to keep the fire burning."

The researchers, who met as a professor-student pair at Yale, have received a lot of criticism for their work on Russia, much of it in the form of hate mail and threatening phone calls.

"I've had a lot of threats on the phone, and my home has been vandalized," Sonnenfeld told BI last summer. "Now we have so many security cameras I can't even have my shirt tails untucked, let alone walk around in my shorts at home."

Both are barred from entering Russia and were put on the nation's sanctioned US citizens list in 2022.

Still, neither of them regrets their work.

"We're pretty excited about it," they said of their research. "Any of the threats only motivate us to work that much harder."

Putin's top critics

Sonnenfeld, 70, and Tian, 25, didn't plan on getting their names added to a list of Putin's critics. Neither are technically economists, but they began researching Russia's economy while compiling a list of companies that exited or scaled back their operations in Russia in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.

That list went viral online, and was instrumental in getting more than 1,000 companies to scale back their business in the country, the Yale School of Management says on its website.

At that time, Tian and Sonnenfeld began noticing cracks forming in Russia's economy. Putin has claimed Russia is becoming the new "growth hub" of the world, and the IMF says Russia's economy is on track to grow over 3% this year, more than any other OECD economy, including the US. But that doesn't square with data Sonnenfeld and Tian are seeing, with some pockets of the country's economy in dire shape.

Activity in Russia's car sector is down around 95%-99%, Sonnenfeld and Tian estimate, and activity in most industries is down at least 60%, they said, despite Putin frequently brushing off the impact of sanctions.

The nation, meanwhile, is still suffering from huge capital losses from when it first invaded Ukraine. Russia lost 1 million citizens, 15% of its millionaires, as well as $19 billion in foreign direct investment in 2022 alone, making its future growth prospects dismal, the researchers say.

Among their biggest predictions is that the situation in Russia is so bad that the country could eventually turn on Putin, with a shift in the domestic temperament coming as soon as the November US presidential election this year.

That's because if Biden is re-elected, the US will likely continue supplying aid to Ukraine, forcing Russia to continue spending money and lives to keep waging war on Ukraine.

"Putin has no grand strategy other than to hope Trump wins and cuts a favorable deal with Russia," Tian said. "Russia is in for a world of economic pain for a long time to come."

Positive forecasts on Russia's economy are based on a lack of visibility, Sonnenfeld and Tian say.

The pair began working together when Tian was an undergraduate at Yale, chasing Sonnenfeld around lecture halls. Eventually, Sonnenfeld became Tian's advisor and has mentored Tian for over eight years.

The two researchers are still working on ways to urge the West to tighten and enforce sanctions on Russia. They also continue to update their list of companies that have exited the country in the hope that it will encourage more firms to do the same.

Colleagues describe Sonnenfeld as opinionated but generous and charismatic. Tian, meanwhile, has a near-photographic memory and is a highly analytical thinker, colleagues mentioned.

"Steven does a lot of the analytic heavy lifting, and I do the flamboyant color," Sonnenfeld said of their work together.

People who have worked with them also say the pair is extremely passionate about their work, and both are often known to answer emails at all hours of the night and early morning.

"We don't believe in regular sleep patterns," Sonnenfeld added. "Actually, we know it's very important, but sometimes when there's a sense of urgency, we do seriously dive into the crisis du jour. We just don't like bullies, whether or not it's Putin or some other bravado."

https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/jeffrey-sonnen
feld

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, May 26, 2024 7:54 AM