REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Friday, November 22, 2024 16:20
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Saturday, November 16, 2024 2:47 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


It seems Biden* is intent on pouring more $$ down a rat hole.

Russia seems to have launched an offensive along the entire front, except Kherson (think Krynke) to the very south. Kupiansk, Sieversk, Chasov Yar, Kurahove (a strong point just to the south of the strategic city of Pakrovsk) and Zapharozhia. And opened up a new front north of Kiev, by crossing the border into Ukraine.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Sunday, November 17, 2024 6:21 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The Russian military command reportedly arrested and removed several commanders within the Russian 3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA] following inaccurate reports they made about alleged Russian advances near Bilohorivka and repeated outcries from the Russian milblogger community.

A Russian milblogger claimed on November 16 that Russian authorities arrested the commander of the 3rd CAA (formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps [LNR AC]), the 3rd CAA's chief of staff, and the commander of the 3rd CAA's 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade following widespread Russian milblogger complaints about Russian officers submitting incorrect reports to their superiors and planning "incomprehensible" assaults near Bilohorivka (northeast of Siversk).[23] The milblogger claimed that Russian authorities also removed the commanders of unspecified battalions and are inspecting the 6th and 123rd motorized rifle brigades (both of the 3rd CAA). Another Russian source additionally claimed that Russian authorities arrested the commander of the 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade for concealing losses and the "real situation" in the Siversk direction from the Russian military command.[24] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that "the system is inert" and that there was no reaction to Russian milbloggers' initial complaints about false reports of Russian advances in the Siversk direction.[25] The milblogger claimed that the Russian military command became aware of the problem when higher-ups wanted to visit Bilohorivka under the impression that Russian forces had seized the settlement and that the settlement was in the Russian near rear given the alleged Russian seizures of Serebryanka and Hryhorivka (both west of Bilohorivka). The milblogger claimed that frontline Russian commanders had previously tried to stage interviews with Russian war correspondents in order to corroborate the commanders' false reports. ISW previously observed reports from July 2024 that Major General Alexei Kolesnikov is the commander of the 3rd CAA.[26] Russian command failures and the pervasive Russian military culture of exaggerating battlefield successes near Bilohorivka has become a point of neuralgia for the Russian milblogger community recently, particularly as Russian forces have repeatedly wasted manpower and armored vehicles on unsuccessful attempts to take the settlement since at least May 2022.[27] ISW also observed geolocated footage published on November 8 indicating that Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in northern Bilohorivka — further demonstrating the significance of frontline Russian commanders' false reports to the Russian military command about Russian successes in the area.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-16-2024


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, November 17, 2024 7:07 AM

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Desperate for new army recruits, Russian authorities resort to planting drugs and posting fake job ads

12:40 pm, November 13, 2024

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/11/13/desperate-for-new-army-recruit
s-russian-authorities-resort-to-planting-drugs-and-posting-fake-job-ads


As Russia presses forward with its offensive in Ukraine, mounting casualties on the battlefield have forced the Defense Ministry to intensify recruitment efforts. Alongside raising sign-on bonuses for new contract soldiers, officials are using increasingly aggressive tactics, including manipulation and coercion: intimidating 18-year-old conscripts, posting fake job ads, and pressuring people under criminal investigation to sign contracts. The independent outlet Holod spoke with human rights advocates to uncover the extreme lengths the Russian authorities are going to replenish the army’s ranks. Meduza shares a summary of their main findings.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, November 17, 2024 7:08 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


In wartime Russia, some men may be worth more dead than alive, economist says

November 16, 2024 at 3:19 PM CST

https://fortune.com/2024/11/16/russia-economy-military-death-payouts-v
s-civilian-earnings-ukraine-war
/

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine heads toward its three-year anniversary, the military’s payments for those who die on the battlefield are presenting a grim calculus for families.

Russian economist Vladislav Inozemtsev has estimated that the family of a 35-year-old man who serves for a year and is killed in action would receive about 14.5 million rubles, or $150,000, in the form of salary and death compensation, according to the Wall Street Journal. That doesn’t include other bonuses and insurance payouts.

In some regions of Russia, that amount is more than he would have earned as a civilian if he worked until the age of 60.

“Going to the front and being killed a year later is economically more profitable than a man’s further life,” Inozemtsev told the Journal.

These “deathonomics” of wartime Russia, as he has dubbed them, have delivered a windfall in some communities. In fact, poverty rates have fallen to the lowest levels since Russia began gathering that data in 1995.

As of June, death payments totaled up to $30 billion over the past year, the Journal said. And in the Tuva and Buryatia regions, for example, bank deposits have soared 151% and 81%, respectively, since January 2022—the month before Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, November 17, 2024 2:28 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Because things are going so well in Ukraine ...

Quote:

In "Major Policy Shift" Biden Authorizes Ukraine's Use Of US Missiles To Hit Targets Inside Russia

Nothing like the dementia-ridden, deep state puppet in the White House greenlighting a little World War 3 on his way out to the glue factory.


Sunday, Nov 17, 2024 - 11:16 AM

In a move straight out of Louis "After me, the flood" XV, the outgoing BIden admin [Antony Blinken], in a seemingly desperate move to destabilize the global geopolitical picture, has authorized the lifting of some restrictions on Ukraine’s use of western-made weapons to strike military targets inside Russia, according to reports from Bloomberg and the AP. The decision was reportedly shaped by North Korea ramping up support for President Vladimir Putin’s army [those mythical N Korean soldiers in Kursk that nobody has seen yet] and an increase in Russian missile and drone attacks on its neighbor.

The approval represents a major U.S. policy shift and comes as the deep state-supported, dementia-ridden puppet Joe Biden is about to leave office and incoming President-elect Donald Trump has said he would bring about a swift end to the war and has expressed skepticism over continued support by the United States.

If approved, the capability would likely be used first in the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukraine is fighting against [phantom] North Korean troops as well as Moscow’s forces, the people said. Still, any permission, if granted, is unlikely to go as far as Ukraine has requested, one of the people said.


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/major-policy-shift-biden-authorizes-
ukraines-use-us-missiles-hit-targets-inside-russia


Dima, of pro-Ukrainian Military Summary Channel, has been talking about those North Korean soldiers in Kursk for at least three weeks.

Yet, despite the fact that he and his team dive into Telegram channels and Kiev news incessantly, and rely on geolocated videos to establish "facts on the ground" ... and despite apparent heavy fighting in Kursk ... he has yet to post even a fleeting image of a N Korean soldier in the Kursk fighting.

Or anywhere.

So this whole "N Korean involvement" is just a narrative to justify "USA involvement".

Don't forget that for long range missiles like ATACMS, Ukraine doesn't need USA "permission", it needs actual USA technicians to set the targets and program the missiles, using proprietary and restricted-access terrain mapping software.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Sunday, November 17, 2024 7:11 PM

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The “Dove of Peace” Sent Us Yet Another Barrage of “Kinzhal” and “Kalibr” Missiles; That’s His Diplomacy – Address by Ukraine’s President

17 November 2024 – 22:25

The plan to strengthen Ukraine is the Victory Plan, which I presented to our partners. One of its key points is long-range capabilities for our army. Today, there’s a lot of talk in the media about us receiving permission for respective actions. But strikes are not carried out with words. Such things are not announced. Missiles will speak for themselves. They certainly will.

Glory to Ukraine!

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/golub-miru-nadislav-nam-chergovi-
kindzhali-ta-kalibri-os-tak-94461


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, November 18, 2024 7:15 AM

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Russia has consistently underestimated the impact and influence of Ukraine’s asymmetric drone capabilities and innovations throughout the war, to Russia’s detriment.[3]

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s articulated theory of victory assumes that Russian forces will be able to make and sustain gradual creeping advances indefinitely but does not appear to account for the possibility that Ukrainian forces could inflict losses sufficient to stall or stop future Russian offensive operations.[4] Recent Western estimates of Russian manpower losses suggest that Russian forces are currently losing more troops per month than Russia’s ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts can sustain, and evidence is mounting that Russia cannot sustain the current rate of armored vehicle and tank losses in the medium term.[5] Ukrainian drone operators, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction, have successfully degraded Russian forces’ mechanized capabilities and have slowed Russian forces’ ability to make gains by forcing Russian infantry to advance primarily at foot pace.[6] The integration of Ukrainian drone operations with sufficiently resourced artillery and committed Ukrainian infantry units is and will remain essential in defending against Russian advances throughout the frontline.

Putin identified the complete seizure of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as a priority goal of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and Russian officials have reiterated this goal over the past three years.[7] Russian forces seized a little over 2,000 square kilometers in Ukraine between October 1, 2023 and October 5, 2024, mostly in fields and small settlements and towns. They must seize an additional 9,322 square kilometers including several large urban areas in order to take the remainder of Donetsk Oblast as of November 14.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukrainian-defense-pokrov
sk-has-compelled-russia-change-its-approach-eastern-ukraine


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, November 18, 2024 8:56 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Because things are going so well in Ukraine ...

Quote:

In "Major Policy Shift" Biden Authorizes Ukraine's Use Of US Missiles To Hit Targets Inside Russia

Nothing like the dementia-ridden, deep state puppet in the White House greenlighting a little World War 3 on his way out to the glue factory.


Sunday, Nov 17, 2024 - 11:16 AM

In a move straight out of Louis "After me, the flood" XV, the outgoing BIden admin [Antony Blinken], in a seemingly desperate move to destabilize the global geopolitical picture, has authorized the lifting of some restrictions on Ukraine’s use of western-made weapons to strike military targets inside Russia, according to reports from Bloomberg and the AP. The decision was reportedly shaped by North Korea ramping up support for President Vladimir Putin’s army [those mythical N Korean soldiers in Kursk that nobody has seen yet] and an increase in Russian missile and drone attacks on its neighbor.

The approval represents a major U.S. policy shift and comes as the deep state-supported, dementia-ridden puppet Joe Biden is about to leave office and incoming President-elect Donald Trump has said he would bring about a swift end to the war and has expressed skepticism over continued support by the United States.

If approved, the capability would likely be used first in the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukraine is fighting against [phantom] North Korean troops as well as Moscow’s forces, the people said. Still, any permission, if granted, is unlikely to go as far as Ukraine has requested, one of the people said.


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/major-policy-shift-biden-authorizes-
ukraines-use-us-missiles-hit-targets-inside-russia


Dima, of pro-Ukrainian Military Summary Channel, has been talking about those North Korean soldiers in Kursk for at least three weeks.

Yet, despite the fact that he and his team dive into Telegram channels and Kiev news incessantly, and rely on geolocated videos to establish "facts on the ground" ... and despite apparent heavy fighting in Kursk ... he has yet to post even a fleeting image of a N Korean soldier in the Kursk fighting.

Or anywhere.

So this whole "N Korean involvement" is just a narrative to justify "USA involvement".

Don't forget that for long range missiles like ATACMS, Ukraine doesn't need USA "permission", it needs actual USA technicians to set the targets and program the missiles, using proprietary and restricted-access terrain mapping software.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


Combine Zelensky's threat/ not threat to make and use nuclear weapons on Russia with America's threat to aim American missiles into Russia, and you get a provocation of eye- watering proportions.

On reflection, tho, I think that's what this is: a last-ditch effort to get Russia to respond directly against American soldiers, and to then get America and Russia fighting directly against each other in a way that Trump can't reverse.

Biden and Blinken ... and whowever is behind them... really are willing to risk WWIII and nuclear holocaust, as well as have every last Ukrainian killed... just to keep Prohect Ukraine going. Aren't they?
Evil. Pure evil.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Monday, November 18, 2024 6:42 PM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Biden has held a tight leash on the ATACMS until now, in part because Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that he would regard any use of U.S.-supplied weapons against Russian territory as an attack by the United States, a major escalation — crossing a “red line,” as Putin has put it — which he would match, either by firing tactical nuclear weapons or by attacking U.S. military targets in Europe.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/11/trump-biden-russia-putin-u
kraine-zelensky-missiles.html


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, November 19, 2024 7:24 AM

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Select Russian officials and propagandists heavily emphasized that US officials have not yet formally confirmed the ATACMS strike authorization, likely in an attempt to convince the United States to back out of the decision and deny the media reports of the authorization. Zakharova stated that it is unclear if Western media outlets reporting on the US authorization are citing official sources, and Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov similarly questioned the credibility of the US media reports.[6]

US outlet Axios reported on November 17 that a source with knowledge of the matter stated that the Biden administration granted Ukraine permission to use ATACMS in order to deter North Korea from sending more troops to Russia for the war.[10] Axios reported that US officials hope that North Korea might reconsider its decision to deploy military personnel to Russia if Ukrainian forces strike North Korean forces in Kursk Oblast.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-18-2024


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, November 19, 2024 8:13 AM

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1) US officially allows Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range weapons

Tue, November 19, 2024 - 12:34

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/us-officially-allows-ukraine-to-to-str
ike-1732012491.html


2) Ukraine strikes Russian territory with ATACMS for first time, source says

Tue, November 19, 2024 - 12:40

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-strikes-russian-territory-with
-atacms-1732011994.html


3) Russia says Ukraine has fired US-supplied long-range missiles into the country

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0mzjm7knw7o

Meanwhile, earlier on Tuesday, Putin approved changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, setting out new conditions under which the country would consider using its arsenal. It now says an attack from a non-nuclear state, if backed by a nuclear power, will be treated as a joint assault on Russia.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, November 19, 2024 2:39 PM

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Putin’s Pals Are Freaking Out About Biden’s Bombshell Missile Move

PARTY’S OVER -- The celebratory mood on state TV over Donald Trump’s victory was soured by fears of imminent strikes on Russian soil.

Julia Davis | Nov. 19 2024 4:30AM EST

Despite constantly claiming that the country Russia invaded isn’t even real, prominent propagandists fear that the first retaliatory strike with a long-range missile from their neighbors might target one of their studios—a concern that was voiced on state television in October by State Duma member Andrey Gurulyov.

During their show, Busarova and Guz comforted the audience by assuring them that even if this reporting was accurate, Trump will surely withdraw this permission as soon as he gets sworn in.

The host of state TV show 60 Minutes Olga Skabeeva went even further and claimed that Trump might forbid Ukraine to strike Russian targets with long-range missiles even now, before his presidential term officially starts. She didn’t explain the reasoning behind this assertion, apparently believing that rules no longer apply, and the incoming American president is empowered to rule with an iron fist before taking office.

Monday’s broadcast of 60 Minutes quoted Elon Musk, Donald Trump Jr., and Georgia congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene sharing their outrage against the reported permission for Ukraine to use long-range missiles for its retaliatory strikes, since Moscow firmly believes that its intended victims should not be allowed to defend themselves and enjoys support from Americans who share the same warped worldview.

During Monday’s broadcast of The Meeting Place, political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko argued that Trump will use Biden’s reported approval of using the long-range missiles against Russian targets to deny any further U.S. aid to the beleaguered Ukraine. Bezpalko speculated that Trump will tell the Ukrainian president that America has already provided all the support that it could and surmise: “Bro, you failed. Get out of here.”

Not a single talking head in Russia’s tightly controlled state media believes that Trump will help Kyiv—believing instead that he will help Russia to cement its conquests and restore its dominance over Ukraine. They predict that Russia will not respond to Biden’s reported decision in order not to interfere with Trump’s anticipated efforts to settle the conflict.

The attitude of “In Trump we trust” continues to permeate the Russian state media, with constant discussions about how much of Ukraine he is willing to hand over to the Kremlin.

Unlike Sylvester Stallone, who called Trump “the second George Washington,” Russian propagandists often call him America’s Boris Yeltsin, the last Soviet leader. They compare the current state of the United States to the last years of the Soviet Union, openly hoping that Trump will push the country over the edge—with Russia taking its spot and dominating global affairs for decades to come.

They argue that the anticipated resolution of the Ukrainian conflict will solidify Russia’s place in history as a winner and America as a geopolitical loser that will never recover from this anticipated defeat.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, November 20, 2024 7:13 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented Ukraine's "Internal Resilience Plan" to the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) on November 19.[9] The plan is comprised of 10 points that establish Ukraine's strategic objectives during and after the end of Russia's full-scale invasion.[10] The core points of the plan outline Ukraine's focus on maintaining unity and cooperation with its partners; specific measures to stabilize the frontline and increase Ukrainian military's technological efficiency; the expansion of Ukraine's domestic industrial base (DIB) production capabilities and joint DIB partnerships; the establishment of an economic policy to support Ukrainian industries and businesses; the protection of Ukraine's energy infrastructure; and the establishment of a new internal and border security system. The plan also outlines a vision to create effective local administrations, improve social and veteran policies, and strengthen Ukraine's cultural sovereignty both domestically and abroad. Zelensky emphasized in his speech to the Verkhovna Rada that Ukraine has taken many steps to improve its DIB and has already produced over 2.5 million mortar and artillery rounds in 2024.[11] Zelensky added that Ukraine plans to produce at least 3,000 cruise missiles and 30,000 long-range drones in 2025 and that Ukrainian brigades should raise their own funding to appropriately supply themselves with drones without bureaucratic limitations. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on November 19 that the Verkhovna Rada approved the 2025 defense and security budget of 2.23 trillion hryvnias (around $54 billion) and allocated a record-breaking 739 billion hryvnias (around $17.9 billion) for the Ukrainian DIB and weapon procurement.[12]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-19-2024


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, November 20, 2024 7:17 AM

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Boris Johnson outlines his $500 billion solution to war in Ukraine

November 19, 2024, 08:40 PM

https://english.nv.ua/nation/boris-johnson-outlines-his-500-billion-so
lution-to-war-in-ukraine-50467477.html


“Now is the time, furthermore, to give the Ukrainians the financial firepower to survive and win this conflict, with a $500bn lend-lease style loan which they will amply be able to repay,” said Johnson.

He then suggested to genuinely welcome Ukraine into the fold of European nations.

“Finally it is crucial that we settle the question of where Ukraine really belongs — no longer a satellite of Moscow but a free and independent sovereign democratic European nation,” Johnson continues.

“That means we must have the courage and logic to give the Ukrainians the security guarantee that they need and announce a date in the near future by which Ukraine will join NATO.”

These decisive steps, Johnson is convinced, would “persuade” Russian dictator Vladimir Putin that the invasion of Ukraine was “a gigantic mistake” and prompt him to look for a peaceful settlement.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, November 20, 2024 7:23 AM

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Russian Army Division Hit by Desertions of 'Whole Regiment': Report

Updated Nov 20, 2024 at 6:49 AM EST

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-army-division-hit-desertions-whole-re
giment-report-1988712


An "entire regiment" of more than 1,000 soldiers left the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division of the Russian Armed Forces stationed in Volgograd amid rising tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war, according to the Russian investigative outlet iStories.

Among those who deserted the division, also referred to as "sochniks," which translates to "those who left their unit without permission," were 26 junior officers, a major, and two lieutenant colonels. Newsweek reached out to the Ministry of Defense for the Russian Federation for comment via email.

Since February 2022, 11,700 cases of unauthorized abandonment of a unit? reached military courts, and the number of cases reaching the courts each month began increasing in March of last year, reaching a new high in nearly 1,000 cases per month in July 2024.

Soldiers who have been taken to military courts for unauthorized desertion are "more likely to receive suspended sentences than those convicted under other articles," as a suspended sentence allows soldiers to return to the front lines sooner.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, November 21, 2024 5:55 AM

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Lessons from the war in Ukraine for the Western Pacific

Oct 30, 2024

The Ukraine war is demonstrating dramatic changes in the character of war in five main ways:

1) The effectiveness of integrated air/missile defense (IAMD) against even intensive and complex air/missile attack (a phenomenon also visible in Iranian attacks against Israel);

2) The ability of enormous masses of tactical drones—millions of drones used on both sides—to create partially transparent battlefields and constrain combat to positional forms;

3) The ability of integrated drone-missile attacks including both aerial and maritime drones to achieve mission kills and even catastrophic kills of major and minor surface combatants;

4) The expansion of electronic warfare (EW) capabilities to scales and effects never before seen in combat; and

5) The emergence of an extremely rapid battlefield technological-tactical innovation cycle, driven largely by a race between drone and EW technologies, that can see major changes implement along a thousand-kilometer frontline in as few as two-three weeks.

The Air-Missile War

Both Russia and Ukraine have fielded integrated air/missile defense systems in response to increasingly complex attacks combining ground- and air-launched cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones. These IAMDs have proven successful at preventing either side from achieving decisive effects even with massed strikes. The effectiveness of these IAMDs calls into question the ability of any state to rely on traditional missile systems to penetrate to their targets, a reality that should drive a reconsideration of Taiwan conflict scenarios that have assumed that high proportions of such systems would achieve their intended effects.

Much more at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/defense-taiwan-ukrainian
-characteristics-lessons-war-ukraine-western-pacific


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, November 21, 2024 8:41 AM

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The Russia-Ukraine War in 2030
Let’s imagine a future much like the past — with Moscow and Kyiv irreconcilable but agreeing to manage their war.

November 20, 2024 | By Happymon Jacob, an associate professor at the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University and the founder of the Council for Strategic and Defense Research in New Delhi.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/20/russia-ukraine-scenario-peace-set
tlement-frozen-conflict-forever-war-minsk
/

Consider this scenario for the Russia-Ukraine war in the year 2030: As much as U.S. President Donald Trump or other third parties tried to force a final settlement and lasting peace, they only succeeded in getting the two sides to agree to a series of measures to manage their war. With neither Moscow nor Kyiv accepting each other’s war aims—and with neither side strong enough to decisively defeat the other—the two countries are mired in a low-intensity but continued conflict with occasional, limited skirmishes. A complete end to the fighting is nowhere in sight. In some ways, the situation is reminiscent of the period after the first Russian invasion in 2014, when the Europe-brokered Minsk agreements contained but did not end the war in Ukraine’s Donbas region during the eight years that preceded the much larger 2022 invasion.

In this scenario, Western support for Ukraine continues, but it has dwindled as the United States shifts focus to its strategic rivalry with China and as populist, pro-Russian parties gain ground in European countries. Russia continues to receive some support from North Korea and other partners, but this has not enabled a decisive breakthrough. As the United States seeks to peel Russia away from China, Europe sees a “managed” Russia-Ukraine conflict as less risky than an all-out war.

In this 2030 scenario, the Russia-Ukraine war has become less intense. Both sides and their supporters appear to have accepted the suboptimal outcome of a managed, low-intensity conflict. And the globe has become more unstable.

Looking back from this imagined 2030, how did we get there? And what are the likely consequences for Ukraine, Russia, and the world if this scenario comes to pass?

The scenario of a managed war requires Russia and Ukraine to agree to a series of concessions. These include agreements to designate specific areas—such as nuclear facilities, heavily populated civilian areas, and food storage sites—as permanent cease-fire zones; establish permanent humanitarian corridors for safe passage of civilians and aid workers; exchange prisoners; establish communication channels between military commanders to manage incidents and prevent escalation; and create protocols for de-escalating incidents.

These agreements aim to lower the conflict’s intensity, reduce its potential for escalation, limit spillover effects, and protect civilians.

This state of affairs—a low-intensity conflict and a patchwork of agreements—is a function of several factors. For one, neither side is powerful enough to defeat the other. Since mid-2024, Ukraine has not been able to reclaim significant land from Russian occupation, and Russia has only made incremental progress on the battlefield at an unsustainable cost in men and equipment.

Second, there is no Western appetite for going all in. Support for Ukraine has been dwindling, and there is uncertainty about its prospects for European Union membership due to the veto power of various EU states and the increasing influence of the pro-Russian far right. U.S. support for Ukraine has also diminished as Washington increasingly seeks to focus on its rivalry with Beijing in the Indo-Pacific theater.

And finally, neither side has strong incentives—even under outside pressure—to terminate the war or reach a final settlement, making a managed stalemate the least bad outcome. With the war taking a high toll on Ukrainian society, Kyiv has become more open to living with some territorial losses to Russia.

The scenario of managed conflict would be a partial victory for Ukraine, even if the country has lost close to 20 percent of its territory to Russia since 2014. It has, with the help of third parties, successfully checked the invasion of a great power armed with nuclear weapons and forced it to concede to several agreements, a notable achievement for a country with a smaller military. While Ukraine has lost a considerable amount of territory to Russia, it is a much more determined and cohesive nation with a far more consolidated non-Russian identity than ever before in its history. It has one of the strongest and most versatile militaries in Europe, battle-hardened and adept at using a range of weapon systems produced by a thriving modern defense industry. Having strengthened its relations with the EU and United States, Ukraine thinks of itself as a European country, not a peripheral state of Russia. There is an overwhelming desire to be an important geopolitical power in Europe.

The Russia of 2030, on the other hand, is battle-weakened and geopolitically isolated, staring at severe demographic challenges, debilitating sanctions, and declining energy prices. The war has made Russia a much-diminished power, with the economy in bad shape due to vast defense spending and severe Western sanctions. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been unable to achieve his goal of returning Ukraine to Moscow’s orbit, faces growing domestic pressure to end the war.

The long record of Russian and Soviet occupations does not bode well for negotiations.

For many Europeans, the idea of a managed war appears desirable. For them, an imperfect stability in Ukraine is preferable to an all-out war between the two sides with no end in sight. Russia’s own war fatigue and diminution as a major power may restrict its ability and willingness to carry out further invasions and has further encouraged the feeling in Europe that Ukraine must strike a deal to manage its war with Russia. European countries are not ready yet to confront Russia directly by offering NATO membership to Ukraine, but EU membership remains a possibility.

The United States is also satisfied with Russia’s diminished power status, reasoning that further weakening Russia is unnecessary. Instead, Washington prefers to concentrate on Beijing and the Indo-Pacific. Moreover, the United States hopes that backchannel conversations with Russia could help extract concessions regarding Moscow’s collaboration with Beijing. A no-win, no-loss situation in Ukraine has moderated Russia, enabling a modest thaw in U.S.-Russia relations with the potential for a step-by-step normalization of Russia’s role in great-power politics.

Both the United States and Europe have expressed willingness to provide sufficient assistance for Ukraine’s reconstruction, economic recovery, and access to advanced civilian technology, which many Ukrainians view as a reasonable bargain for territorial concessions.

While there is appetite in the United States to engage Russia, Europe is less enthusiastic about doing so because of misgivings about Russia’s potential future behavior. But there is also a strong feeling in some European quarters that a war-fatigued and much diminished Russia might not be in a position to wage a war against any NATO country. Rising right-wing parties in Europe also agitate for an accommodation with Russia. Washington, too, encourages Europe to accept the status quo in the region and move on.

The continuing but contained conflict in Ukraine has reduced Russia’s dependence on China. With Russia weakened but not defeated, strong voices in Moscow weigh the gains and losses from a close relationship with China as the latter encroaches into Russia’s traditional sphere of influence, particularly in Central Asia. The China-Russia relationship persists but is less disruptive for the United States and its allies.

As a result, Russia has regained some geopolitical agency in its neighborhood. With Chinese influence on Moscow’s strategic decision-making less overbearing, countries like India can also engage more with Russia.

Meanwhile, U.S.-Chinese strategic competition has intensified. By 2030, China is rising as a global power with significant influence in the global south, especially Africa. For Washington, addressing the China challenge may require reducing the intensity of secondary rivalries. The United States has also made a distinction between Russian revisionism and Chinese revisionism. While the former is limited to its region, China’s brand of revisionism has global implications, considering that it seeks to create an alternative world order to the one dominated by the United States. By 2030, the long and debilitating war in Ukraine has somewhat halted or perhaps even stopped Russia’s regional revisionism.

For the world, a managed war scenario suggests that aggressors can get away with their actions and that international institutions are powerless in the face of such aggression. Smaller powers have little chance against invaders without strong backing, and international law and institutions fail to protect them. This will further erode the legitimacy of international law and multilateral institutions, thoroughly discrediting the United Nations. Regional security will increasingly rely on coalitions and minilateral groups of like-minded countries. A strong sense of self-reliance for security will prevail, leading to more militarization and even nuclear proliferation. Multiple world orders will emerge.

For rising powers, there will be increased space to maneuver. However, this will be accompanied by a further decline of democracy due to an emphasis on security above all other priorities, exacerbated by weakened global checks and balances. Addressing global challenges, such as the climate crisis, migration, and sustainable development will become more challenging. Moreover, Europe’s remilitarization will occur at the expense of development assistance to the global south. In sum, the world of 2030 is more unstable than today’s, even with the Russia-Ukraine war largely contained.

As in any such thought experiment, there are wild cards that could change this scenario by either escalating the war or ending it altogether. On the Russian side, the continued high death rate due to the country’s particularly casualty-intensive way of fighting could cause domestic unrest. Combined with Russian elites’ deep unhappiness with Western sanctions, this could force an end to the war. Putin’s death could also set off a major political shift in Russia, leading to the end of the war.

If Trump finds a way to force a settlement or is willing to abandon Ukraine altogether, there could also be a more decisive end to the war. A crisis over Taiwan could divert U.S. and NATO attention from Ukraine, reducing its ability to sustain the war until 2030. An abandonment of Western sanctions could also resuscitate Russian power and enable renewed aggression more quickly than this scenario envisions.

On the other hand, a clash between Russia and a European NATO country could expand the scope of the war. And even under a managed war scenario, Russia could withdraw from any agreement it has with Ukraine and restart the war when an opportunity arises.

This essay is adapted from a scenario exercise for the 2024 Yalta European Strategy annual meeting in Kyiv.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, November 21, 2024 8:54 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russia fires intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine for first time, Kyiv says
Moscow retaliates after Ukraine fired US and UK-made long-range missiles into Russian territory

By Isobel Koshiw in Kyiv | Nov 21, 2024

https://www.ft.com/content/34ac518b-e696-4a19-b91a-d9f273083f3d

Ukraine has said Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time since Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022, following days of escalation in the conflict.

Ukrainian air defence forces on Thursday said the missile, which did not carry a nuclear warhead, was fired alongside seven Kh-101 cruise missiles at the southern city of Dnipro.

A senior Ukrainian military official told the Financial Times that the missile was an RS-26 Rubezh, which has a range of up to 6,000km.

Ukraine said it had intercepted six of the accompanying Russian missiles, but not the RS-26, which it said had been launched from Russia’s southern Astrakhan region.

British defence secretary John Healey referred on Thursday to “unconfirmed reports” of “a new ballistic missile” launched at Ukraine that the Russians “have been preparing for months”.

Some analysts dispute the classification of RS-26 as an intercontinental missile, arguing that, because it has a shorter range than most ICBMs, it sits in a grey area between that designation and an intermediate-range missile.

But under the US and Russia’s New Start nuclear arms control treaty of 2010, an ICBM was defined as a “land-based ballistic missile with a range in excess of 5,500km”.

Before Thursday, no ICBM had been recorded as being used in conflict.

On Thursday, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on X: “Our insane neighbour has once again revealed its true nature.” He added that the Russian missile’s “speed and altitude suggest intercontinental ballistic capabilities. Investigations are ongoing.” 6:26 AM · Nov 21, 2024
https://x.com/zelenskyyua/status/1859574059706589467

Two people were injured in the attack, according to local authorities. It is not clear what the missile was targeting or the extent of the damage caused.

“Using these kinds of missiles, whether RS-26 or a true ICBM, in a conventional role does not make a lot of sense because of their relatively low accuracy and high cost,” Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva, wrote on X.

“But this kind of a strike might have a value as a signal,” he added.

The use of the RS-26 comes after Ukraine launched US-made long-range Atacms missiles and British Storm Shadows at Russian territory in recent days.

Responding to the Atacms strikes, Russia altered its nuclear doctrine to lower its threshold for first use.

The range of ICBMs, which are designed to carry nuclear warheads between continents, is far greater than that of missiles such as Atacms and Storm Shadows, which can travel 250km to 300km.

Russia has previously used shorter-range nuclear-capable missiles to hit Ukraine. Russian forces have repeatedly fired ground-launched Iskander short-range ballistic missiles and the air-launched hypersonic Kinzhal missile, both capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Most ICBMs have a range far greater than the RS-26 and can travel between 8,000km and 15,000km.

The “RS-26 is not really an intercontinental missile. It was tested at the range of more than 5,500km, but it is in effect an intermediate-range missile”, said Podvig.

Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, said footage of the strike suggested the missile carried a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle payload — exclusively used for deploying nuclear warheads.

“The signal here is: ‘Today the strike was with a non-nuclear payload, tomorrow it could be a nuclear one,’” Hoffman said. “There certainly was no military value to it. If it was about striking certain targets, there would have been many more and more capable missile systems for that.”

The strike comes two months before president-elect Donald Trump re-enters the White House. Trump has pledged to bring the war in Ukraine swiftly to an end, without specifying how he would do so.

Mikhailo Samus, director of the Ukrainian Center for New Geopolitical Research, said Russia would have had to notify the US that it planned to launch an ICBM to avoid the risk of US systems mistaking it for a nuclear attack on Nato.

He added Ukraine’s air defences do not have the capability to intercept an ICBM.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, November 21, 2024 10:17 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Putin claims he is making Russia great again by killing Ukrainians

In the second half of the 20th century, revolutionary Marxism in Cambodia, North Korea and numerous states in South America and Africa led to murders, pogroms, genocides, ethnic cleansings, revolutions, civil wars and state-sponsored conflicts, all in the name of establishing a heaven on Earth that required the elimination of recalcitrant dissenters. All told, some 94 million people died at the hands of revolutionary Marxists and utopian communists in Russia, China, North Korea and other states, a staggering number compared with the 28 million killed by the fascists. When you have to murder people by the tens of millions to achieve your utopian dream, you have instantiated only a dystopian nightmare.

The utopian quest for perfect happiness was exposed as the flawed goal that it is by George Orwell in his 1940 review of Mein Kampf:

Hitler … has grasped the falsity of the hedonistic attitude to life. Nearly all western thought since the last war, certainly all ‘progressive’ thought, has assumed tacitly that human beings desire nothing beyond ease, security and avoidance of pain. … [Hitler] knows that human beings don’t only want comfort, safety, short working-hours, hygiene, birth-control and, in general, common sense; they also, at least intermittently, want struggle and self-sacrifice …

On the broader appeal of Fascism and Socialism, Orwell added:

Whereas Socialism, and even capitalism in a more grudging way, have said to people ‘I offer you a good time,’ Hitler has said to them ‘I offer you struggle, danger, and death,’ and as a result a whole nation flings itself at his feet. … we ought not to underrate its emotional appeal.

https://aeon.co/ideas/utopia-is-a-dangerous-ideal-we-should-aim-for-pr
otopia


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, November 21, 2024 2:36 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


The amount of crap that SECOND posts is unbelievable.

Meanwhile, in the real world...

Quote:

Ukraine Becoming 'Global War' After Western Long-Range Weapons Used Against Russia: Putin

Thursday, Nov 21, 2024 - 09:30 AM

Update(1320ET): On Thursday President Vladimir Putin issued a stern warning in the wake of Ukraine launching long-range strikes on Russia's territory utilizing newly approved US and UK long-range missiles.

"Kiev has launched a long-range missile strike against military facilities located within internationally-recognized Russian territory," began his televised address by saying. He confirmed British-made Storm Shadow missiles and US-made HIMARS were fired targets located in Bryansk and Kursk Regions.

He said this action threatens to turn the Ukraine conflict into a global war. "A regional Ukraine conflict instigated by the West has acquired elements of a global one," Putin spelled out, and noted that these systems cannot be used without the direct operational involvement of Western military specialists.

But he went on to claim that the inbound Western rockets were intercepted by Russian defenses. "The goals that have apparently been set by the enemy have not been achieved." He suggested injuries among some personnel at a command center in Kursk, but noted it continues full operations. He also asserted that no Western systems can counter Russia's new missiles, on display earlier in the day.


What about these mythical N Korean soldiers? Yanno, the ones in that narrative so carefully pushed weeks ago, that served as an excuse for these missile strikes and then conveniently disappeared?

Quote:

"The use of such weapons by the enemy cannot affect the course of the situation in the Special Military Operation zone," Putin stressed.He also said it was a big mistake for the US to pull out of the the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019.
Yes, it was. Mr Trump, are you paying attention?

Quote:

Can things cool prior to Trump taking office, or will Zelensky and the West risk bigger confrontation, to likely trigger Russian hypersonic missiles or even a tactical nuke? This is indeed an ultra-dangerous slide.

* * *

Update(1057ET): Ukraine's earlier claim that its territory had been struck by an intercontinental ballistic missile fired by Russia is being hotly disputed, hours after widespread reports first appeared. US officials are saying it appears to be a new intermediate-range ballistic missile and not an ICBM which targeted the central city of Dnipro

The NY Times has reported in follow-up of the attack that "several Western officials said that the weapon was not an ICBM and instead was likely an intermediate-range missile that flies shorter distances."

Zelensky himself had claimed Russia used a new class of missile. "All the parameters — speed, altitude — match those of an intercontinental ballistic missile," he said. "All expert evaluations are underway." But US defense officials are contradicting this:

A senior U.S. official said the weapon appeared to be an intermediate-range ballistic missile, adding, "But it is a new type we have been tracking."

US officials have also called it an "experimental" missile. There's also been some quibbling among experts are how to characterize the projectiles which were observed hitting Ukraine at incredibly high rates of speed, in terms of rocket size and distance.

Assuming Washington is correct, and that it wasn't an ICBM, this suggests Zelensky's hasty verdict is all about threat inflation coming at a time he's desperately trying to get the West's attention, arguing in favor of greater NATO military intervention against Russia.


MORE AT https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-hits-ukraine-icbm-first-
time



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


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Thursday, November 21, 2024 5:07 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
The amount of crap that SECOND posts is unbelievable.

Meanwhile, in the real world...

Signym, how'd you get so crazy? And stupid?

Russia’s Missiles Threaten a Nuclear Meltdown in Ukraine

By Paul Hockenos | November 21, 2024, 2:29 PM

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/21/russia-missiles-nuclear-meltdown-
ukraine
/

In Ukraine, a surge in military hostilities has again thrown the safety of the country’s operational nuclear plants into jeopardy. Russia has been targeting conventional Ukrainian power stations, the transmission grid, and substations with the heaviest barrages in months—likely a reaction to the Biden administration’s recent authorization that allowed Ukraine to fire long-range U.S. missiles into Russia and subsequent green light to receive and deploy U.S.-made anti-personnel mines. The Russian drone and missile strikes on the Ukrainian energy system have now put the three nuclear stations that depend upon them—in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and South Ukraine—in grave danger.

“Russia’s attacks on the power grid and Ukrainian conventional power plants is negatively affecting the safety of Ukraine’s nuclear fleet,” Per Strand, director general of the Norwegian Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, said. (Norway works closely with Ukrainian regulators to maintain reactor safety.) “Russia is not targeting the nuclear plants themselves but rather damaging the electric system as a whole. This causes the power in the transmission grid to fluctuate, which undermines the reactors’ security.”

“It is clear that Russia is using the threat of a nuclear disaster as a major military lever to defeat Ukraine,” Shaun Burnie, a nuclear specialist at Greenpeace, told the Guardian. “But by undertaking the attacks, Russia is risking a nuclear catastrophe in Europe, which is comparable to Fukushima in 2011, Chernobyl in 1986, or even worse.”

Nuclear power plants rely on the electric grid to transmit the electricity they produce, as well as to receive power for reactor cooling and safety systems. Strand said that Ukraine’s plant operators “most probably” have the situation under control at the moment.

The Russian strikes marked the war’s 1,000th day on Nov. 19, with Russia attempting, as it has in past winters, to incapacitate as much of Ukraine’s power supply as possible—to hobble Ukraine and force its civilian population to suffer the cold weather. Putin’s goal “is to create a humanitarian catastrophe,” said Maxim Bevz, a Kyiv-based energy expert, who explained he is living without heat or electricity. “Kyiv has blackouts now for several days. Next week is supposed to be even colder.” The purpose, he said, is to break Ukraine’s morale and force as many people as possible to leave the country.

Poland and the Czech Republic are preparing for new influxes of winter refugees. The International Rescue Committee is working in Ukraine to provide financial assistance to help people purchase blankets, coats, heaters, and fuel for stoves. It noted that approximately 3.4 million people in Ukraine are internally displaced, and many living in collective shelters without adequate winter protection.

Despite the damage to its energy infrastructure since Russia’s invasion began in 2022, Ukraine entered this year’s cold season with energy sources—nuclear, coal, hydroelectric, and gas— just adequate to survive until spring, as long as its defenses protect all of those energy sources, said DTEK, Ukraine’s largest utility. Around two-thirds of its substations have been secured with physical reinforcements that protect against drones or shrapnel.

“If we get hit, as I assume we will, our goal is that Ukraine not fall into total darkness but to get things up and running again as fast as possible,” said Maxim Timshenko, DTEK’s CEO. About two-thirds of Ukraine’s supply hails from the reactors at the three nuclear plants, which does not include Zaporizhzhia in southeastern Ukraine, which is under Russian occupation. The burden on the operational sites is all the greater without Zaporizhzhia and the impairment of 90 percent of Ukraine’s thermal plants and 40 percent of its hydroelectric plants since 2022.

On Nov. 17, all but two of Ukraine’s operational nuclear power plants reduced electricity production by 10-60 percent as a precaution following Russian bombardment. The Russian strikes knocked out the main power lines for four substations, Ukrainian regulators told the International Atomic Energy Agency (Multiple substations supply one nuclear plant.) Only two of the country’s nine operational reactors currently generate electricity at full capacity.

“The less normal the electricity production is and the more that reactors must be throttled back or shut down, the greater the burden is on those reactors that remain online. This makes the grid all the more unstable and dangerous,” Strand said. Last winter, Ukraine lost 50 percent of its power capacity and thousands of miles of electric, gas, and heat networks.

The threat of a meltdown, experts say, stems from the stoppage of external electricity to the plants, which rely on it for their cooling systems. Nuclear plants must employ constant cooling to remove heat from the nuclear reactor core and transfer it to electrical generators or into the atmosphere. This makes them reliant on off-site power generation. If a substation that relays power to the reactor malfunctions, the plants have generators and batteries that kick in. The backup generation can cover outages for seven to 10 days. In 2022 and 2023, the Zaporizhzhia plant, Ukraine’s largest, suffered the complete loss of off-site power eight times.

Experts, such as Mycle Schneider of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report, say that back-up diesel generators are notoriously unreliable and prone to malfunction. “If you get a station blackout and the diesels do not start up, you meltdown starts within one hour,” Schneider said.

The sixth and final reactor at Zaporizhzhia, Europe’s largest nuclear station, was put into cold shutdown (nuclear fission stops) in April. The plant, which has been under Russian military control since March 2022, stopped generating electricity in September 2022 but had maintained one unit that provided heating for a nearby town. Greenpeace International said that although the six Zaporizhzhia reactors “remain on a cliff edge in terms of safety, they are at least in cold shutdown.” Since nuclear material remains in all six reactors and is still cooling, even with the complete loss of electrical power, a meltdown would not happen in just hours or days but would probably take several weeks.

“A situation as precarious as that in Ukraine right now has never happened anywhere else on this scale, even in peace time,” Strand said. “And now it’s happening in the middle of a war.”

“In an active war, no one can guarantee the safety of a nuclear power plant,” Schneider to the German media last year. “It is based on a system of complex regulations, inspections, maintenance, regular checks, and healthy, rested personnel. There is no basis for the safe operation of nuclear power plants in a war situation.”

Ukrainian authorities, Strand said, are well aware of the imminent danger and are scrambling to ensure safety and the regular flow of electricity. The obvious alternative—to shut them all down at once—is simply not an option as temperatures plummet across the country.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, November 21, 2024 5:52 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


"Oh, woe!" chorus the nuclear operators.

I suppose it would be too much for them to imagine going to cold shutdown.

/snark

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Thursday, November 21, 2024 7:05 PM

THG


T

How Russian State Lures Russian Men Into Deathtrap






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Thursday, November 21, 2024 8:33 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


And now for some real news..

. https://x.com/ShadowofEzra/status/1859583958863757683?ref_src=twsrc%5E
tfw


These videos show what Russia struck Dniepro with. You really REALLY need to watch them if you want to get an idea what happened.

It wasn't "an" experimental missile, it was six. Each missile, coming in at hypersonic speeds, launched what appear to be six warheads, also coming in at hypersonic speeds. Since they're coming in so fast, each warhead is wrapped in a glowing plasma, but each cluster of warheads from a distance looks like a descending glowing cone. Like some kind of scifi weapon.

These were not ICBMs. Ballistic, yes. Intercontinental, no.

NO EXPLOSIONS.

The explanation that I heard afterwards is that the hypersonic warheads punched thru and exploded so far underground the explosions never reached the surface.
The target was a deep underground factory from Soviet times that built ICBMS. It was meant to withstand nuclear attack.

There is no defense against a Mach 10 missile with independently maneuverable hypersonic warheads.

THIS WAS A MESSAGE AND A WARNING.

Forget all of Zelensky's bullshit.
Forget Biden's (i.e. Blinkens's) bullshit.
It's pure bullshit.
This is real.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Thursday, November 21, 2024 9:58 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
"Oh, woe!" chorus the nuclear operators.

I suppose it would be too much for them to imagine going to cold shutdown.

/snark

Sure thing, Signym. Cutting off the electricity by shutting down the reactors is brilliant except that the coal industry has been disrupted by war, and as of 2024 over 70% of electricity generation is nuclear in Ukraine. Signym, you are stupid and crazy, but then so are Russians. Why else has their country fallen apart, time after time? Why else are they poor and short-lived? Similarly, there is a strong correlation between being stupid/crazy in America and the economic struggles and short lifespans of Trumptards. Don't tell them because Trumptards desperately want to believe they are smart and sane. It is psychological protection from the hard truth about these mentally ill butt-heads with shit for brains.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Ukraine

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, November 21, 2024 10:01 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

The warheads weren't loaded with any kind of explosive, not conventional and not nuclear. THIS WAS A ONLY A MESSAGE.

Forget all of Zelensky's bullshit.
Forget Biden's (i.e. Blinkens's) bullshit.
It's pure bullshit.
This is real.

What is going to be real is Ukraine bombing Russian nuclear reactors if Putin keeps acting like he can't be touched.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, November 21, 2024 11:22 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

SECOND Sure thing, Signym. Cutting off the electricity by shutting down the reactors is brilliant except that the coal industry has been disrupted by war, and as of 2024 over 70% of electricity generation is nuclear in Ukraine.


Oh, so the REAL problem isn't nuclear accident? The REAL problem is shutting off the electricity? They're just whining about nuclear safety bc they want to keep flogging those plants even in wartime?

Bullshit from Ukraine and Sweden.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Thursday, November 21, 2024 11:55 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

SECOND: What is going to be real is Ukraine bombing Russian nuclear reactors if Putin keeps acting like he can't be touched.


I told you when this all started that if anyone was going to go nuclear it was going to be "our" side.

Why??? Because Russia has such a depth of weapons and capacity they don't have to. The USA and NATO as a whole, however ... we're flailing, and making one ridiculous desperate move after another.

Our conventional ground forces are for shit. Low on manpower, weapons not suitable for the terrain, no manufacturing capability for attritional warfare. (BTW, the same holds true for our naval forces. Aircraft carriers and other surface ships are sitting ducks.) Russians have what Obama called "escalatory dominance": Anything we can do, they can do better.

But that's what happens when you don't see an adversary, only your own self-congratulatory image. I've been telling you that since this started.

In any case, it's NOT UKRAINE that's firing these missiles, it's the USA. If our military techs weren't there, in Ukraine, programming them, they'd never get off the ground. Ukraine is incapable of "going rogue", it is literally beyond their capacity.

So if we wanted to stop the missiles from being fired at nuclear power stations, we don't have to beg and plead with Zelensky to see reason. All our techs have to do is sit on their hands. And if missiles ARE launched at nuclear power stations, Russia, our military... and now you ... know exactly who is responsible. Ukraine isn't going to be the only one bearing the brunt. But I've been thru this before. You seem to have a problem making essential facts stick.

BTW Russia is holding all NATO members jointly and severally responsible for any attacks on Russia. I can imagine our missile bases in Poland and Romania going up in a blinding, non-nuclear flash.

Oh, BTW... I've been told we have 52 nuclear power stations on our east coast. You really want to go down that road?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/map-of-nuclear-power-in-the-us-see-whe
re-reactors-are-located.html

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Friday, November 22, 2024 6:20 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

BTW Russia is holding all NATO members jointly and severally responsible for any attacks on Russia. I can imagine our missile bases in Poland and Romania going up in a blinding, non-nuclear flash.

Oh, BTW... I've been told we have 52 nuclear power stations on our east coast. You really want to go down that road?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/map-of-nuclear-power-in-the-us-see-whe
re-reactors-are-located.html

In the first week of this war, Russian spokesmen threatened to nuke London, Paris, and DC if they sent aid to Ukraine. Despite the threats, ammo was sent. It was crazy/stupid threats that Putin had enough self-control not to make a reality. Now Signym is making the same threats for Russia, but instead of hitting the Capitol Cities, it's a threat to hit local nuclear power plants in the US. Russia has always spoken of threats as if the whole country is crazy/stupid, with the results that are bad for Russia: Poverty/Shortened lives/Excessive drinking. Now Signym is doing the same.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, November 22, 2024 6:41 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Putin’s November 21 statement demonstrates that Moscow’s constant saber-rattling largely remains rhetorical. Putin's recent threats against the West have centered on Western states allowing Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes into “Russian territory,” but Ukrainian forces have been striking what the Kremlin illegally defines as “Russian territory” for a long time. The Kremlin has illegally defined occupied Crimea as part of Russia since Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and Ukrainian forces have routinely struck Crimea with US-provided ATACMS and UK-provided Storm Shadow missiles since April 2023.[7] The Kremlin's application of its "red lines" rhetoric has been wildly inconsistent, undermining the overall Russian escalation narrative.[8] Putin consistently escalates the war on his own without regard to Western decisions and has consistently declined to retaliate every time Western states have deepened their support of Ukraine. Putin previously threatened severe retaliation if Western states provided Ukraine with rocket artillery, tanks, warplanes, and the ability to strike into Russia, and Putin has constantly shifted the goalposts every time the West has called Putin’s bluff.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-a
ssessment-november-21-2024


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, November 22, 2024 11:44 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

In the first week of this war, Russian spokesmen threatened to nuke London, Paris, and DC if they sent aid to Ukraine.


I doubt it, bc that is not Russia's nuclear policy, and that was never Moscow's "red line".
Since your "sources" are constantly misquoting Russians, I'm not surpised that there's no link to the quote.

****`

One thing your "sources" do constantly is fabricate Russian "red lines" and claim "victory when we cross them, but ignore ACTUAL Russian red lines.
Offensive weapons to Ukraine?
Not a red line.
HIMARS to Ukarine?
Not a red line.
F-16s to Ukraine?
Not a red line.

Yanno one red line?
Ukraine in NATO.

So when Zelensky was prancing around NATO conference in 2022, blathering that Ukraine was going to join NATO and get nuclear weapons ... and EU leaders didn't have the good sense to tell him to STFU, THAT was a red line. Russia invaded a few days later and all of your "sources" were shocked and claimed it was "unprovoked".

Long range missiles fired by NATO powers into Russia? That's ANOTHER red line.
And - if you're paying attention- an act of war by USA and the UK against Russia.


Quote:

SECOND Putin’s November 21 statement demonstrates that Moscow’s constant saber-rattling largely remains rhetorical.


Stop trying to fool people into thinking Russia is bluffing. They're not. We have been warned, unmistakably. THEY don't want to escalate, but it's clear you do.

So. Wanna see what happens when we KEEP crossing that red line?
FAFO (fuck around find out).

Quote:

Russia Lists US Missile Defense Base In Poland As 'Priority Strike Target'

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-lists-us-missile-defense
-base-poland-priority-strike-target


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Friday, November 22, 2024 1:05 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Signym, Putin does not have to do anything to prove he is not bluffing beyond waiting until February 2025.

Once Trump is President, Putin can speak three words during his congratulatory phone call ("World War III") to Trump who will then flinch and say two words ("We surrender"). Trump's many spokesmen can handle the details such as "All our bases in Europe are yours, Mr Putin." And that is Trump's secret plan to bring peace to Ukraine. Too bad for Europeans who don't want Russians taking over American bases.

After Trump has spoken the words "We surrender" and "America First" the next step in Trump's secret plan goes into effect. Trump is already threatening to fire the Generals. Trump will save vast amounts of money by closing the Pentagon. More than enough to give every rich man in America a special tax cut, including himself. Since he doesn't pay taxes, the IRS will have to send Trump the money that would have been spent to prevent Russia from taking over Europe.

Trump draft executive order would set up board to oust generals en masse

https://fox59.com/news/national-world/trump-draft-executive-order-woul
d-set-up-board-to-oust-generals-en-masse-report
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, November 22, 2024 3:42 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So. You're OK with WWIII. Bc to say otherwise means that YOU'RE bluffing.

Is Ukraine really worth it?

Of course not. We have no vital interest there.

You're nuts.

But I've known that for a while.

*****

And yes, Trump should fire the Generals, bc they're incompetent.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Friday, November 22, 2024 3:50 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Just kind of scanning the alt media for their take, I see a serious disconnect. The alt media, which should know better, is mesmerized by the incoming Trump Presidency. They're explaining everything about Ukraine in terms of our internal politics: Who's up. Who's down. Who's making trouble for who.

They assume that Russia will see it the same way. I believe RUSSIA, OTOH, is seeing this an an absolute security threat. Not about to give Biden* leeway bc he's not long for this (political) world. If there are further strikes into Russia, I expect a vigorous, but calibrated, response.

*****

Take the nuclear football away from Joe. The WH is clearly under the control of the demented and the ideologically possessed.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Friday, November 22, 2024 4:20 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
So. You're OK with WWIII. Bc to say otherwise means that YOU'RE bluffing.

Is Ukraine really worth it?

Of course not. We have no vital interest there.

You're nuts.

But I've known that for a while.

It is already WWIII according to Ukraine's Envoy to the UK and, previously, the general who drove the Russians out of thousands of square miles of Ukraine in 2022.

World War III has officially begun, Ukraine’s ex-top general says

The former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army has a grim outlook on the state of the war.

By Ketrin Jochecová | November 21, 2024 7:50 pm CET

https://www.politico.eu/article/ww3-officially-begun-ukraine-ex-top-ge
neral-valery-zaluzhny
/

Ukraine's former military Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny said that the direct involvement of Russia's autocratic allies in its war on Ukraine means that World War III has started.

"I believe that in 2024 we can absolutely believe that the Third World War has begun," said Zaluzhny, who is now Ukraine's envoy to the United Kingdom, during a speech at Ukrainska Pravda's UP100 award ceremony.

"Because in 2024, Ukraine is no longer facing Russia. Soldiers from North Korea are standing in front of Ukraine. Let's be honest. Already in Ukraine, the Iranian 'Shahedis' are killing civilians absolutely openly, without any shame," said Zaluzhny, adding that North Korean and Chinese weapons are flying into Ukraine.

Zaluzhny urged Ukraine's allies to draw the right conclusions.

"It is still possible to stop it (WW3) here, on the territory of Ukraine. But for some reason our partners do not want to understand this. It is obvious that Ukraine already has too many enemies. Ukraine will survive with technology, but it is not clear whether it can win this battle alone," he said.

Zaluzhny's speech at the ceremony is in line with his grim outlook of the war. In similar comments in his essay for The Economist last year that infuriated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Zaluzhny compared the state of the conflict to a stalemate like World War I.

Zelenskyy fired Zaluzhny in February after rising tensions between the two on how the war in Ukraine should be fought — as well as Zaluzhny's growing popularity, which made him a potential political threat.

Zaluzhny was credited for successfully halting and pushing back Russia's initial attack launched on Feb. 24, 2022, which was later tarnished by the failure of last year's counteroffensive. His role was taken over by General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who is seen as closer to the president.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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