REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Monday, February 3, 2025 13:35
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Monday, January 27, 2025 5:53 AM

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The Witches of Bucha, the exclusively female war volunteer unit: "I can't kill people, but the Russians are vermin"

Thousands of Ukrainian women are starting to serve in the anti-aircraft defense of the main cities of Ukraine

By ALBERTO ROJAS | 01/27/2025 - 03:46 ET

https://www.mundoamerica.com/news/2025/01/27/679747fbfc6c83712f8b4577.
html

Do you think you could kill someone with your weapon?

"I have thought about it a lot. I could never kill people, but I think the Russians are vermin. We are in Bucha and we all saw what they did here."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, January 27, 2025 12:28 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
We are in Bucha and we all saw what they did here.


No, hon. You were not an eyewitness, and neither were "all" of the people that you reference. You, personally, didn't see shit. What YOU "saw" was Kiev's propaganda, and you believed it.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Tuesday, January 28, 2025 5:53 AM

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Trump Still Doesn’t Understand the Ukraine War
And in his eagerness to cut a deal to end it, he may give Putin the lifeline he so desperately needs.

By Garry Kasparov | Jan 27, 2025

Putin’s regime is now predicated on the domination of Ukraine by Russia and its annihilation as a sovereign, Western-oriented nation. I didn’t make this up—just take a look at Russian state propaganda, or official government policy. The official line is that Ukraine should not exist.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_
Ukrainians This was Putin’s policy before the full-scale invasion of February 2022 and it will remain his policy even if he agrees to a temporary ceasefire. There are only two possible ends to a war in which the aggressor is committed to the destruction of its opponent: a victory for the aggressor or the destruction of the aggressor. These are the only possible outcomes in Ukraine. Either the Ukrainian nation will cease to exist as we know it or Russia will lose and the Putin regime will fall. Any ceasefires, temporary retreats, or pauses are merely stages on the way to one of these final outcomes.

Appeasement is not a way to end the conflict, and any public relations victory it would produce for Trump would be fleeting. History tells us that appeasement is the greatest fuel for continued war. Negotiations can only work if the administration is willing to walk away.

. . . based on the testimony of Trump’s cabinet nominees in their confirmation hearings, the officials who will be managing America’s involvement do not understand the underlying dynamics—namely, that Putin’s hold on power is synonymous with continued war. Perhaps Secretary of State Marco Rubio, given his experience and previously voiced views, understands this, but, if so, he is afraid to say it.

America must stand up to Putin. If you think defeating Russia is expensive, it’s far cheaper than the trillions that will be required should Ukraine fall. If Putin is allowed to win in Ukraine, he will only move on to other targets and the price will keep going up. Putin made clear before the full-scale invasion that he sees his war in Ukraine as part of a larger political and military struggle against the West, especially the United States. The Biden administration never acknowledged this reality, but neither has Trump, at least not yet.

A victory for Putin means, in due time, a re-charting of the entire map of Europe, to suit his vision of a Russian empire that never lost the Cold War.

More at https://www.thebulwark.com/p/bad-things-happened-trump-still-doesnt-un
derstand-ukraine-war-putin-deal-davos

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, January 28, 2025 7:47 AM

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Russia’s Year of Truth: The Missing Military Hardware

In the last of a series of three pieces, Pavel Luzin goes behind the curtain of Russia's military-industrial complex to expose the weapons crisis in Vladimir Putin’s military.

By Pavel Luzin | Jan 22, 2025

Russia is struggling to increase arms production against a tide of permanently growing costs and a shortage of human and financial resources. Without a ceasefire, the Kremlin will face deeper imbalances in its domestic political economy and become strategically weaker.

2025 will be the last year Russia can rely on its massive stockpiles of Soviet-era conventional arms, including artillery, main battle tanks and armored vehicles.

If the intensity of combat, and consequent Russian losses, follow the same pattern as 2022–2024, most stockpiles will be exhausted by the second half of the year, forcing Moscow to rely on newly manufactured arms rather than repaired and modernized ones.

More at https://cepa.org/article/russias-year-of-truth-the-missing-military-ha
rdware/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 29, 2025 6:20 AM

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Heavy losses don’t mean the Russians are losing the war

By David Axe | Jan 28, 2025, 09:16pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/28/a-lone-pickup-truck-t
agged-along-as-russian-troops-mounted-yet-another-failed-assault-in-kursk-ukrainian-drones-blew-up-the-pickup-last/

Russian marines and paratroopers are rolling their precious armored vehicles at Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast in western Russia—and running headlong into the Ukrainian army’s elite 47th Mechanized Brigade and its American-made M-2 fighting vehicles.

The result, so far, is a growing pile of smoldering wreckage. “Russians desperately trying to liberate Kursk Oblast and suffering huge losses,” according to Kriegsforscher, a Ukrainian marine corps drone operator whose team has been defending the same sector as the 47th Mechanized Brigade.

Incredibly, that doesn’t mean Russia is losing its wider war on Ukraine as the conflict grinds into its fourth year. Ukraine may not be sending as many hard-to-replace vehicles on nearly suicidal missions, but it’s still got profound problems of its own along the 800-mile front line.

A three-day assault starting on Jan. 18, led by the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade and 234th Air Assault Regiment left behind 14 wrecked BMP and BMD fighting vehicles and three T-80 tanks. A separate assault on or just before Tuesday involving at least four tanks and fighting vehicles—and a pickup truck—ended in the destruction of most or all of the vehicles.

A fast-moving Ukrainian force invaded Kursk in August, capturing what is now a 250-square-mile salient around the town of Sudzha. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin initially gave his forces, and their North Korean reinforcements, until February to eject the Ukrainians. But despite holding a 60,000-to-20,000 manpower advantage over the Ukrainians in Kursk, the Russians and North Koreans have made only marginal gains around the salient.

The growing heap of charred wreckage accumulating around Nikolskii, one of the villages the 47th Mechanized Brigade garrisons on the western edge of the salient, speaks to the Russians’ failure.

The fighting on Tuesday was typical. A Russian assault group riding in up-armored fighting vehicles and tanks—and that one pickup—rolled toward Ukrainian positions in broad daylight along the same roads they’ve always traveled in their botched attempts to roll up the Kursk salient.

Surveillance drones spotted the assault group. Explosive first-person-view drones got some of the Russian vehicles. The 47th Mechanized Brigade’s M-2s hit others with their fast-firing 25-millimeter autocannons. Bomb-dropping drones swooped in to clean up the stragglers. In the process, they bombed the pickup.

“Aren’t they sick and tired?” Kriegsforscher asked. “I really do not understand the point of attacking at the [same] place where they attack for the third month.” At the same time, the drone operator conceded that the Russians have made some gains—however slight—on the edges of the salient. “They continue fighting and advancing.”

But Russian and North Korean losses are unsustainable by any reasonable measure. Ukrainian officials claimed 30,000 Russians have been killed and wounded in Kursk. As many as 4,000 North Koreans have reportedly become casualties in the oblast, including some high-ranking officers. The Russians are losing so many armored vehicles in Kursk that regiments and brigades in other sectors of the front line now routinely attack in civilian compact cars.

Escalating losses are driving deep dysfunction in the battered Russian military. The Kremlin may be hoping that Ukrainian dysfunction is even worse—and it may be right.

The best and longest-serving Ukrainian brigades are desperate for fresh infantry, and yet leaders in Kyiv have assigned thousands of new recruits to newly formed brigades lacking experienced leaders and effective support units. Two of the new brigades have disintegrated, exposing their few intact sub-units to murderous Russian firepower—and getting a lot of green troops needlessly hurt or killed.

It’s a race to the bottom for both armies. The Russians are expending their last mechanized reserves for gains of a few yards. The Ukrainians are holding them off, and bleeding them pale, with under-manned brigades that—lacking access to fresh troops—shrink in size with every casualty they suffer.

Given the competing dynamics, the big question is: which army will collapse first?

Sources:
https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1881715106549280781
https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1880619725983732154
https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1881009974970896599
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1884269950241501331
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5
O5jWMTE&ll=51.30560037261048%2C35.210289115258426&z=15
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5
O5jWMTE&ll=51.308699044057995%2C35.23721849376795&z=12

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 29, 2025 6:23 AM

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A senior NATO official acknowledged that Russia is escalating a sabotage and destabilization campaign against European NATO member states to deter further military assistance to Ukraine. NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai stated at the European Parliament on January 28 that NATO states have faced acts of sabotage in recent years, including train derailments, arson, attacks against politicians' property, and assassination plots against defense industry figures, including a Kremlin plot to assassinate Rheinmetall Head Armin Papperger.[18] Appathurai emphasized that the Kremlin aims to "create disquiet to undermine support for Ukraine" and called for NATO states to more assertively deter Russian sabotage acts.[19] The Kremlin has consistently attempted to use information operations to deter Western states from providing additional military assistance to Ukraine.[20] The Kremlin's sabotage and destabilization campaign directly targeting NATO states supports ISW's assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin sees Russia as waging a hybrid war directly against NATO.[21]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-28-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 29, 2025 6:24 AM

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The U.S. military transferred around 90 Patriot air defense interceptors from storage in Israel to Poland this week in order to deliver them to Ukraine.

This is the most significant delivery of weapons from Israel to Ukraine since the Russian invasion.

https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/us-patriot-missiles-ukraine-israel

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Wednesday, January 29, 2025 7:37 AM

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EU lets in Russian LNG

By Victor Jack and Koen Verhelst | January 29, 2025 4:35 am CET

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-lets-russian-gas-slip-again-in-new-
sanctions-package/

The proposal will not include a blanket prohibition of LNG imports, as EU hawks have been urging. Instead, it would only stop Russian LNG from going to EU terminals not connected to the EU’s gas system — a restriction that won’t affect the majority of LNG imports.

New data shows the EU slurped up record volumes of LNG from Russia last month. Last year, Moscow’s LNG exports to the EU rose by almost 20 percent from 2023, according to a report out Tuesday.

Additionally, the new offering will push to restrict Moscow's aluminum exports, according to the three diplomats. The EU still relies on Russia for around 6 percent of its aluminum imports.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 29, 2025 9:07 AM

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Ukraine struggles with troop shortages amid Western pressure

Ukraine has Western weapons, equipment, and ammunition, but the problem is the decreasing number of people willing to fight for the country, Ukrainian experts warn. "This is the essence of the crisis, a social problem, and changing the generals commanding on the front will not change it," said Evhen Dykyi, a veteran of the war with Russia.

By Tomasz Molga | 7:33 AM EST, January 29, 2025

https://conflictwatcher.com/ukraine-struggles-with-troop-shortages-ami
d-western-pressure,7119439132006017a

In 2022, many were ready to fight, but there was a lack of weapons. Now the situation has reversed. "There are weapons, but fewer willing to fight," said veteran and military analyst Evhen Dykyi in the Vechir.LIVE program. His statement was discussed on Tuesday by Ukrainian media, including the Unian agency.

"Partners are ready to supply us with equipment, but they may consider that we have too few people ready to fight," the Ukrainian veteran noted. "Moreover, they are partially aware of this. They're already asking: You keep asking for more weapons, but who will use them? Equipment deliveries are a matter for the West, and our responsibility is mobilization," he added.

Dykyi is a well-known Ukrainian military analyst, commentator, and veteran of the war with Russia. Referring to the gradual withdrawal of Ukrainian forces in the Donbas section, he said that the key issue for the entire front is ensuring reserves. "Mobilization, actions in the rear of the front are the essence of the crisis we have found ourselves in. Changing the generals commanding on the front will not change this," he added.

He also clearly referred to the recent decision of President Volodymyr Zelensky, who entrusted the command of a dramatically difficult defense section near Pokrovske to General Mykhailo Drapaty. The decision surprises experts because Gen. Drapaty is supposed to manage the battle and simultaneously remain the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces. This is the third decision to change the commander in the region within a year.

Ukraine under mobilization pressure; Polish tourist approached

Martial law in Ukraine has been extended, and conscription is ongoing. It includes all men aged 25 to 60 and volunteers aged 18 to 25. There is growing controversy around the actions of Territorial Recruitment Center employees, who stop men in public places: bars, gyms, on the street. We reported that around 100 TRC employees and police officers appeared at a concert in Kyiv to pick out conscripts from the audience.

This pressure has changed the country. On the streets of cities, you practically don't see middle-aged men unless they're in uniforms. Civilians stay home, fearing arrest. "During my last trip, I was checked six times on the street. If I didn't have my passport, I would have been detained under the pretext of evading the army," says Borys Tynka, a Pole and tourist guide in Odesa.

People don't want to talk about the war. Any mention of it causes divisions and arguments. Particularly sharply, there is talk of the possible draft of boys aged 18-25. I haven't met anyone who would support it," Tynka adds. "However, I talked to several mothers who, just in case, sent their sons abroad. They wouldn't change that decision for anything."

Pressure to lower mobilization age

Western countries are putting pressure on Ukraine, demanding the lowering of the mobilization age. National Security Advisor to President Trump, Mike Waltz, suggested that the lower age limit should be 18. According to him, such a decision could help stabilize the situation on the front because Ukraine faces serious personnel shortages.

President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to these suggestions, emphasizing that mobilizing more people without providing better armaments would not have the desired effect. He considered it "unfair" on the part of the West to simultaneously limit the supply of long-range weapons and pressure Ukraine on mobilizing young people.

An appeal titled "Don’t Pressure Ukraine To Feed Its Youth Into the Mouth of Russia’s War Machine" was even published by the opposition English-language service The Moscow Times. "By urging Ukraine to conscript 18-year-olds, the West risks a tragic gamble: sacrificing a generation to buy time for Europe's awakening and NATO's hesitation. Demographers have also raised red flags. Ella Libanova, director of Ukraine’s Institute of Demography, warns that lowering the draft age would cause a demographic crisis in the future," the commentary stated.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 29, 2025 9:07 AM

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Don’t Pressure Ukraine To Feed Its Youth Into the Mouth of Russia’s War Machine

By Elena Davlikanova | Jan. 22, 2025

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/01/22/dont-pressure-ukraine-to-fee
d-its-youth-into-the-mouth-of-russias-war-machine-a87698

By urging Ukraine to conscript 18-year-olds, the West risks a tragic gamble: sacrificing a generation to buy time for Europe's awakening and NATO's hesitation.

Mike Waltz, Donald Trump’s pick for National Security Advisor, recently suggested that Ukraine should lower the draft age from 26 to 18. Framing this as a call for Ukraine to "be all in for democracy," he neglected the obvious irony: while Washington asks Kyiv for its youngest, it sends just enough weapons to prolong the fight but never enough to end it decisively.

The call is in line with the Biden administration approach, which had been met with widespread resistance in Ukraine earlier. Last year Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Advisor, claimed Ukraine’s battlefield struggles stem from a lack of manpower, not weapons. This ignores the hard truth: Ukraine’s manpower crisis is a direct result of the “too little too late” approach.

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko pointed out that mobilizing 18-year-olds offers little military advantage. “This age group is too small in size and too young for the brutal psychological demands of war,” he explains. Demographers have also raised red flags. Ella Libanova, director of Ukraine’s Institute of Demography, warns that lowering the draft age would cause a demographic crisis in the future.

Losing the 18-to-25-year-old age group, already one of Ukraine’s smallest due to declining birth rates, is a demographic time bomb set to explode long after the guns fall silent. Such a suggestion puts Ukraine at risk of becoming a hollow shell of a nation.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has been clear about the issue: “The focus should be on missiles and reducing Russia’s military potential, not on sending more of our youth to die.”

He is right. Ukrainians should not send fresh meat to Russia’s guns under increasingly nebulous promises of support.

But the real kicker is not that Ukraine is reluctant to draft its youth. It is the West’s failure to deliver what is truly needed. Ukraine has received less than half of the $177 billion the U.S. allocated to support Kyiv during the full-scale war, Zelensky revealed in an interview with U.S. podcaster Lex Fridman.

The West’s approach to Ukraine is as shortsighted as it is hypocritical. By holding back Moscow, Ukraine is giving the West time to wake up, rearm, rebuild, and rethink its relationship with Russia and its allies. But Ukrainian blood is not infinite, so bold decisions need to be made quickly. Realizing this harsh reality, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, warned that Europe has just five years to revive its defense industries or prepare to learn Russian.

What Ukraine truly needs is not another round of increasingly younger casualties but decisive action to secure its skies. Russia’s massive Jan. 15 missile and drone attack on Ukraine prompted Poland to scramble fighter jets to protect its airspace. Direct involvement in intercepting Russian missiles over Ukraine’s western border is long overdue.

While well-trained and propaganda-driven North Korean soldiers are actively engaging Ukrainian forces — with some already captured — discussions introduced by France and Poland about European boots on the ground have fallen silent. The hope for an internal coup in the Kremlin or another deus ex machina that ends the war has never materialized, now being substituted by overheated hopes to end the war fast. If negotiations fail, as with the more than 200 rounds of Ukraine-Russian peace talks since 2014, an urgent injection of fresh Ukrainian blood might not save the day.

After enduring prolonged restrictions on the use of Western-supplied weaponry — restrictions influenced by fears and electoral calculations — some have been finally lifted, marking a pivotal change in Ukraine's one-arm-tied fight. The "triple-tap" attack tactic, combining drones to distract Russian air defenses, followed by missile strikes and concluding with precision UAV attacks, is very effective at undermining Russia’s capabilities to attack Ukraine.

Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's official Center Against Disinformation, said that these attacks, utilizing British Storm Shadow cruise missiles and American ATACMS long-range rockets, have significantly damaged Russian infrastructure, including weapons manufacturing facilities, oil refineries and storage warehouses. But overly cautious restrictions on what Ukraine was allowed to do with those weapons meant they had not given Kyiv the advantage they could have.

More Western sanctions against Russia, especially its oil and banking sectors, is a further pillar of defeating Russia. An analysis by the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission of 2,500 components in Russian weapons revealed that a significant portion — 64% — originated from U.S.-based companies, making the United States the largest supplier of electronic components to the Russian war machine. Additionally, numerous components were sourced from European countries, including Switzerland, the Netherlands, Germany and Sweden, highlighting sanctions evasion.

Implementing these and other decisive and timely measures is far more effective against Russian aggression than deploying inexperienced yesterday’s schoolchildren to the front lines. As Zelensky emphasized, "The goal should be to save as many lives as possible, not to preserve weapons in stockpiles." If the West fails to grasp this, it risks sacrificing not only Ukraine's youth but also the very ideals of democracy and human dignity it professes to uphold.

What will happen if this cynical strategy fails? Another 15 million Ukrainians could flee to Europe, joining the 10 million already displaced. Chillingly, Russian troops would likely follow.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 30, 2025 8:20 AM

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If You Think the U.S. Will Abandon Ukraine Now, You Don't Know Donald Trump

Published Jan 29, 2025 at 9:49 AM EST

By Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian
Lester Crown Professor at Yale School of Management; Research Director at Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute

https://www.newsweek.com/if-you-think-us-will-abandon-ukraine-now-you-
dont-know-donald-trump-opinion-2022859

President Donald Trump's recent apparent switch of positions regarding Russia and Ukraine is surprising many, but it shouldn't. We write this not as diplomats or historians, but as informed leadership scholars who have known Trump personally for decades; and having recently spent time on the ground in Ukraine, Central Europe, and Central Asia, we believe there are good reasons for Trump to reverse his position and escape Russian President Vladimir Putin's quicksand.

In a startling flurry of Truth Social posts and press conference remarks since taking office, Trump has revealed his pragmatism over principle. After once condemning President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine, he now praises Zelensky as a seeker of peace. Similarly, Trump has flipped from expressing admiration for Putin to declaring that Putin is destroying Russia. To diplomatic scholars, this is a paradox. To leadership scholars, Trump's reversals demonstrate the consistency of his character. That is because of three distinctive qualities of Trump's leadership style.

Much more at https://www.newsweek.com/if-you-think-us-will-abandon-ukraine-now-you-
dont-know-donald-trump-opinion-2022859

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 30, 2025 8:21 AM

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Putin continues efforts to coerce US President Donald Trump into bilateral negotiations that exclude Ukraine, impose his desired negotiation framework on Trump, and compel Trump to inadvertently endorse ongoing Russian information operations about the illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government. Putin's January 28 statements are part of a continued effort to position himself as Trump's equal and reinforce his long-held belief that Russia is the great-power heir to the Soviet Union.[14] Putin's statements also set conditions for Russia to violate any future peace agreements with Ukraine that Trump may hope to mediate and are yet another indication that Putin is not interested in compromising on his demands of complete regime change and the crippling of Ukraine's military as conditions for peace.[15] Putin's efforts to strongarm Trump are also part of a concerted Russian effort to force the West to acknowledge and endorse Russian information operations about the illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government and an enduring Ukrainian state. ISW previously noted that Western acquiescence to all of Russia's demands in Ukraine would require the West to acknowledge and agree that the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate and that a Ukrainian identity and state independent from Russia either does not currently exist and/or does not deserve to exist in the future.[16]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-29-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, January 31, 2025 7:22 AM

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The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution on January 28 defining its position on peace in Ukraine, closely echoing the principle of "peace through strength" that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky previously outlined.[14] The resolution called for unwavering European support to Ukraine and noted that sustainable peace negotiations can only be achieved from a position of Ukrainian strength. The resolution stated that negotiations regarding an end to the war in Ukraine can only be conducted with direct Ukrainian involvement and if Russia abandons its “imperial ambitions.” The resolution also condemned Russia's violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity and commended Ukraine's progress towards European Union (EU) membership. Zelensky has previously highlighted that sustainable and just peace in Ukraine should be achieved through enhanced military support to Ukraine, especially given Russia's reluctance to engage in good-faith negotiations and continued maximalist and imperialist ambitions.[15]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-30-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, January 31, 2025 5:04 PM

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Ukraine’s latest unmanned aerial vehicle can fly 1,200 miles, drop a 550-pound bomb and return to base, making it potentially the most powerful reusable drone in the Russia-Ukraine war.

The Ukrainian military’s unmanned systems branch confirmed the rumored development on Friday. “We see that the actions of the Unmanned Systems Forces are attracting attention from both domestic and international media,” the branch stated.

The branch command “confirms the use of a long-range UAV, capable of carrying a 250-kilogram air bomb and reaching up to 2,000 kilometers with the possibility of return. This is a unique development that changes the rules of the game on the battlefield.”

In making its longest-range drones reusable, the drone branch could multiply the number and pace of deep strikes it conducts against targets inside Russia, which have lately included bomber bases and oil facilities. The strikes have depressed oil production in a country that utterly relies on energy exports for state revenue.

In the three years since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, Kyiv’s engineers have developed a startling array of increasingly far-flying drones. Recent strikes on Russian targets more than 1,000 miles from the front line may have hinted at the emergence of the reusable bomber drone that the Unmanned Systems Forces announced on Friday.

More at https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/31/ukraines-new-drone-bo
mber-flies-1200-miles-with-a-550-pound-bomb-and-returns-to-base/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, February 1, 2025 3:42 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Before Trump was elected, I worried what would happen, given Trump's ego, when he found he couldn't "maximum pressure" Russia.

Well. First Kellogg floated the "cease fire" idea. Russia reiterated it would not accept a ceasefire.

So Kellogg was apparently set aside for the master negotiator to work.

Then Trump tried bullhorn diplomacy ... "100 days"... "sanctions like you wouldn't believe" ... "Russia's economy is no good" .... "1000,000 dead".... "do them a favor" Russia responded with a "ho hum".

A 'timeline' was floated by ... somebody... outlining the steps whereby a peace could be negotiated, i.e. rammed thru, in 3 months.
Russia repeated its long sad history with the west breaking agreements, and said that every detail must be nailed down, and furthermore there must be ironclad guarantees.

Trump tried to get Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices. OPEC-plus said ... "nah..."


Someone finally clued Trump in that he has an incredibly weak hand, with no leverage on Russia, but some on Zelensky.

So now aid the Ukriane has been halted. Since 90% of Ukraine "independent" media was funded by the State Dept thru NGOS, Ukraine propaganda has slowed down.

Some EU nations are talking about opening up Russian pipeline gas again.

Marco Rubio is talking about American interests and a long, hard diplomatic slog with Russia.

Meanwhile ...

After closing the cauldrons in Ugledar and Selidova Novasilka, Russia appears to be closing cauldrons up the line. One, south of Krasnogorovka reservoir, is an incredible 5 MILES deep, and very narrow. Unlikely anyone will escape that one.

Also, closing cauldrons at Toretsk and Chasov Yar. The Russians have also established a large bridgehead on the Ukraine side of the Oskol River, and appear to be establishing a ginormous cauldron in teh northeast, and one in Kursk the size of the Ukrainian incursion.

Budanov, the Ukrainian chief spook, reportedly told the Rada (parliament) that Ukraine has only 6 months.

Anyway, we'll see what happens next.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Saturday, February 1, 2025 7:23 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The Russian military command has shown that it is willing to commit to operations that could take six to nine months to conclude. Russian commanders are likely operating under the assumption or direct knowledge that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intend to end the war in Ukraine in the near future. Russian forces have been incrementally working to push Ukrainian forces from the east bank of the Oskil River since Winter 2023-2024, and the Russian military command has previously deprioritized the Kupyansk-Borova-Lyman line in favor of other operational efforts in Ukraine.[24] The envelopment of Kupyansk will almost certainly be a months-long effort that requires Russian forces to close a gap 25 to 30 kilometers wide while also fording and maintaining logistics across the Oskil River, seizing small settlements in their path, and repelling Ukrainian counterattacks. Mashovets and a Russian milblogger have suggested that the Russian military command may intend to leverage advances near Dvorichna and Vovchansk to advance on Velykyi Burluk from the northwest and southeast.[25] Russian forces are currently 30 and 35 kilometers from Velykyi Burluk from their closest point of advance in the Kupyansk and Vovchansk directions respectively, and Russian forces could spend six months to a year making slow, grinding advances toward Velykyi Burluk before they truly threaten the settlement.

Russian commanders do not seem concerned about the speed or consistency of their advances in Ukraine, likely because they believe that the war will drag on until Russia militarily defeats Ukraine. The Russian military expended four months on the seizure of Avdiivka, spent most of 2024 working to level the frontline in western Donetsk Oblast, and has devoted the last three years to seizing the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts but does not appear particularly concerned with expediting these advances.[26] Putin has previously articulated a theory of victory that assumes that the Russian military will be able to continue gradual, creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely and has repeatedly indicated that he has no interest in a resolution of the war on any terms but those he dictates.[27] Putin's commanders are internalizing these statements and likely coming to the logical conclusion that Putin has no interest in ending the war and intends to continue fighting until he accomplishes his objectives in Ukraine, which are the toppling of the current Ukrainian government and the categorical destruction of the Ukrainian military.[28]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-31-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, February 1, 2025 7:28 PM

THG


Putin, run...

T

DISASTER! Russian Manpower Crisis: Five-Fold Drop in Conscription


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Saturday, February 1, 2025 7:34 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Man... That would be awful for Russia, if true.

They'd be like Hollywood celebrities running away from their houses as they burned down.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Saturday, February 1, 2025 11:57 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
SECOND
The Russian military command has shown that it is willing to commit to operations that could take six to nine months to conclude.


Quote:
THUGR
DISASTER! Russian Manpower Crisis: Five-Fold Drop in Conscription


These cant both be right at the same time.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Sunday, February 2, 2025 5:06 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
SECOND
The Russian military command has shown that it is willing to commit to operations that could take six to nine months to conclude.


Quote:
THUGR
DISASTER! Russian Manpower Crisis: Five-Fold Drop in Conscription


These cant both be right at the same time.
Both can be true at the same time. I have seen a project fail when a manager committed himself to finishing in nine months but did not have enough workers who could make it happen. Substitute the words "War" and "Soldiers" for 'project' and 'workers' to see what could happen to "Putin", who is a 'manager'.

At the 12-month mark on the 9-month project, the manager resigned. I don't think Putin will resign if he doesn't finish his Ukrainian project in 12 months but he doesn't have forever to finish.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, February 2, 2025 5:07 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russia's Quiet Conquest: Belarus

By George Barros | January 15, 2025

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russias-quiet-conquest-b
elarus

Russia’s effort to de facto annex Belarus poses strategic risks to the United States, NATO, and Ukraine.

The Kremlin is in the endgame of a decades’ long strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus — an effort which will permanently augment Russia’s military and economic capabilities to pursue its revanchist geopolitical objectives against the United States and NATO. Moscow’s effort to de facto annex Belarus through the Union State framework, while incomplete, has already achieved significant gains, requiring NATO to reevaluate the implications of Russia’s growing control over Belarus and the capabilities and resources Russia can leverage against the United States, NATO, and Ukraine as a result. Belarus is not merely a Russian-aligned ally; the Kremlin is transforming Belarus into a strategic enabler for Russia’s ability to project power globally. The Kremlin will leverage its recent but deep-rooted gains in Belarus to offset costs from Russia’s protracted war against Ukraine, accelerate Russia’s recovery following the war in Ukraine, and help Russia prepare for future wars more rapidly than Russia could by itself. Policymakers must start planning for a future in which Belarus is not only a captive nation but also effectively an extension of the Russian Federation.

The Kremlin seeks to de facto annex Belarus by formalizing the Union State as a Russian-dominated federated government that grants Moscow dominant power over most if not all aspects of Belarusian governance. This includes establishing full operational and administrative control over Belarus’ armed forces during peacetime and permanent Russian military basing in Belarus; a political union with a Kremlin-dominated federated government with a common set of federal laws and institutions for Belarusians and Russians to be governed as a single polity; and a fully integrated economy complete with common markets, free labor flows, unified laws, and a currency union. The Kremlin very likely plans to leverage Belarus’ population of 9.155 million people, Belarus’ geostrategic territory on NATO’s eastern flank, and Belarus’ economic resources in service of Russian state power.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, February 2, 2025 7:48 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


One Ukrainian Brigade Lost Entire Companies In ‘Futile’ Attacks On Worthless Treelines

The 92nd Assault Brigade is effective on the defense, but conditions aren’t right for a major attack.

By David Axe | Feb 1, 2025, 09:16pm EST

Combining their drones, mines, missiles and artillery, the Ukrainian army’s 47th Mechanized Brigade and 92nd Assault Brigade not only resisted a Russian assault on their positions in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast on Friday—they destroyed it, leaving a strip of the forest in the oblast littered with dead Russians.

It was an important victory for the two elite brigades—but a victory that could come with surprising risks. According to one Ukrainian combat veteran who goes by “Constantine,” there’s a dangerous tendency among some Ukrainian commanders to assume units that are effective on the defense are equally ready to attack.

So when a formation such as the 92nd Assault Brigade defends its lines from a Russian assault, some commanders might be tempted to order the unit to leave its fortifications, mass on open ground and move toward Russian lines. But attacking is riskier than defending—and tends to get more troops killed.

The Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade, deployed to Kursk alongside the 92nd Assault Brigade, rediscovered this truism the hard way in early January, when it rapidly shifted from defense to offense and advanced toward the village of Berdin, just north of the main Ukrainian line. A clutch of Russia’s best fiber optic drones blasted the exposed Ukrainian paratroopers, inflicting heavy casualties and defeating the ill-advised attack.

The same thing has happened to the 92nd Assault Brigade more than once. The part of the brigade that has been fighting in Kursk “has had its staff replaced three times over the three years” of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine “due to futile orders to seize a treeline at the cost of an entire companies,” Constantine explained. A company normally has more than 100 troops.

Left unsaid in Constantine’s criticism is an implied endorsement of the most obvious Ukrainian strategy as the wider war grinds into its fourth year. Dug-in Ukrainian brigades with intact supply lines and support from drones and artillery routinely inflict horrific casualties on Russian troops—at times killing or maiming hundreds in a single clash.

The Russians have no choice but to attack, as the Kremlin’s war aims are mostly offensive in nature: primarily, to capture as much of eastern Ukraine as possible, as fast as possible.

The Ukrainians can lay their mines, pre-sight their artillery kill zones and arm their drones—and confidently wait for the Russians to come rolling or marching across the shell-pocked no-man’s land. “Experienced Ukrainian units are highly effective at repelling Russian attacks,” Constantine noted.

By comparison, there’s a Ukrainian definition of winning this war that doesn’t require much in the way of offensive action. Kyiv’s forces can kill so many Russians, destroy so much Russian equipment and inflict such harm on Russian morale that Moscow’s forces collapse. Only then, amid their enemy’s unraveling, would the Ukrainians leave their trenches and advance.

It’s happened before. In the fall of 2022, Russian troops were badly depleted by their failed offensive toward Kyiv that had kicked off the wider war six months earlier. Careful Ukrainian reconnaissance detected weakness in certain stretches of the Russian front line around the northeastern city of Kharkiv. A handful of Ukraine’s best brigades exploited this weakness, breached Russian lines and sparked a panic among the exhausted Russians.

The Russians retreated. The Ukrainians advanced behind them—and quickly liberated almost all of northeastern Ukraine.

The 92nd Assault Brigade, then designated the 92nd Mechanized Brigade, executed one of the most impressive maneuvers of this counteroffensive when it quickly marched more than 50 miles from the village of Pryshyb to the city of Kupyansk. Today the city remains free.

Ukraine’s 2022 counteroffensive succeeded because it was preceded by a much longer defensive operation that bled Russia pale. By comparison, Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive along the southern front was preceded by a long stalemate that afforded Russian field armies ample time to reinforce their front-line units, dig trenches and lay mines.

It should’ve surprised no one that the 2023 offensive failed.

If the disparate outcomes of Ukraine’s separate 2022 and 2023 counteroffensives tell us anything, it’s that timing is everything. There could come a time when Russia is weak and Ukraine is strong and Ukrainian brigades can go on the attack with reasonable expectations they’ll achieve something meaningful and lasting.

With Russia still holding a significant manpower and firepower advantage over Ukraine despite staggering Russian losses, that time is not now.

The 92nd Assault Brigade is holding defensible ground with effective weapons and inflicting heavy casualties on Russian assault groups. It’s doing what it needs to do to set favorable conditions for some future negotiated peace or, barring that, an eventual Ukrainian attack on the weakened Russians.

In the meantime, “commanders should prioritize preserving the lives of our experienced troops,” Constantine urged. Hold now so they can win later.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, February 2, 2025 1:50 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


It's true that defense is generally less costly than offense. But if Ukrainian troops are so good defense, why are they getting killed or captured by the hundreds in places like Avdiivka, Uglader, Selidova Novosilka, Krasnagorovka, Chasov Yar, Toretsk, etc? And why will they continue to die by the thousands*, defending every last millimeter and every last toehold?

Rather than frontal assaults, Russia has been flanking important objectives, cutting most lines of "communication" (i.e. roads, bridges), creating pockets and cauldrons. Kiev military command will not order organized retreats from them. Sometimes they even stupidly send more troops in. The troops inside these cauldrons are abandoned to their fate. Some escape, many are killed in the attempt bc the one route remaining is nothing more than a gauntlet. Troops inside are either killed or surrender.

Analysts have been decrying Ukraine's approach of not organizing proper retreats from indefensible positions. The consensus seems to be that it would be better to retreat to the Dnieper, "trading space for time" ... but only if Kiev is organizing a proper defensive line there, with trenches, mines, artillery and drones all focused on that line. Are they?

I feel for Ukrainian soldiers. Many of the newer recruits abandon their units, but tge older recruits are dogged fighters, even when the odds are hopeless.

*Russian MOD reports Ukraine has been losing on the average 50,000 soldiers per month for the last six months. Overall, I trust Russia's MOD for accuracy [on some thngs] far more than Kiev. Russia's MOD stays very quiet about losses (unless it's so public they have to acknowledge) but when they announce a position being taken or Ukrainian losses, they are if anything conservative.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Monday, February 3, 2025 8:22 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russia continues efforts to illegally deport Ukrainian children to occupied Crimea and Russia under the guise of evacuation and rehabilitation programs. Ukrainian Presidential Advisor on Children's Issues Daria Herasymchuk reported on February 2 that Russia has illegally deported at least 20,000 Ukrainian children since 2022 and that Ukraine has repatriated 1,189 children with support from humanitarian organizations and Qatar, South Africa, and the Vatican.[7] Herasymchuk stated that Russian authorities have killed Ukrainian parents, kidnapped their children, and transported the children to "rehabilitation" or "evacuation" camps in occupied Crimea. Herasymchuk stated that Russian authorities have also separated children from their families in illegal filtration camps. Ukraine's Regional Human Rights Center identified 13 such "rehabilitation" or "evacuation" camps in occupied Crimea alone. Russian authorities reportedly use the camps in occupied Crimea to indoctrinate and militarize Ukrainian children before further deporting them to Russia for adoption. Herasymchuk warned that Russian authorities are increasingly attempting to mobilize Ukrainian teenage boys into the Russian military - a violation of the Geneva Convention.[8] ISW has reported extensively on Russia's crimes in occupied Ukraine, including the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.[9] The United Nations Genocide Convention Article 2 defines "forcibly transferring children of a group to another group" as an act constituting genocide.[10]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-february-2-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, February 3, 2025 1:35 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Did Biden think Harris was certain to win the election?

A competent executive knows that high priority initiatives need their constant attention to overcome bureaucratic resistance and infighting. This is true in the private sector and in government. Yet this is what we got from Biden:
Quote:
In the final year of President Joe Biden’s term, decisions on key shipments and weapons in Ukraine were stalled not just by months of congressional delays, but also by internal debates over escalation risks with Russia, as well as concerns over whether the U.S. stockpile was sufficient, a Reuters investigation found. Adding to the confusion was a chaotic weapons-tracking system in which even the definition of “delivered” differed among U.S. military branches.

Delays were worst during the months it took Congress to pass $60 billion in supplemental aid for Ukraine, held up by opposition from Donald Trump and congressional Republicans amid Trump’s successful run for president. But the jam continued well after the money was approved, according to a Reuters analysis of official announcements, U.S. spending data and interviews with more than 40 Ukrainian and American officials, congressional aides and lawmakers. Most spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive national security deliberations.

[. . .]

By November, just about half of the total dollar amount the U.S. had promised in 2024 from American stockpiles had been delivered, and only about 30% of promised armored vehicles had arrived by early December, according to two congressional aides, a U.S. official, and a lawmaker briefed on the data.
https://angrybearblog.com/2025/02/biden-was-a-complacent-and-ineffectu
al-president

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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