Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Thursday, February 6, 2025 14:05
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 177137
PAGE 157 of 157

Monday, January 27, 2025 5:53 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Witches of Bucha, the exclusively female war volunteer unit: "I can't kill people, but the Russians are vermin"

Thousands of Ukrainian women are starting to serve in the anti-aircraft defense of the main cities of Ukraine

By ALBERTO ROJAS | 01/27/2025 - 03:46 ET

https://www.mundoamerica.com/news/2025/01/27/679747fbfc6c83712f8b4577.
html

Do you think you could kill someone with your weapon?

"I have thought about it a lot. I could never kill people, but I think the Russians are vermin. We are in Bucha and we all saw what they did here."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, January 27, 2025 12:28 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
We are in Bucha and we all saw what they did here.

No, hon. You were not an eyewitness, and neither were "all" of the people that you reference. You, personally, didn't see shit. What YOU "saw" was Kiev's propaganda, and you believed it.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, January 28, 2025 5:53 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Trump Still Doesn’t Understand the Ukraine War
And in his eagerness to cut a deal to end it, he may give Putin the lifeline he so desperately needs.

By Garry Kasparov | Jan 27, 2025

Putin’s regime is now predicated on the domination of Ukraine by Russia and its annihilation as a sovereign, Western-oriented nation. I didn’t make this up—just take a look at Russian state propaganda, or official government policy. The official line is that Ukraine should not exist.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_
Ukrainians This was Putin’s policy before the full-scale invasion of February 2022 and it will remain his policy even if he agrees to a temporary ceasefire. There are only two possible ends to a war in which the aggressor is committed to the destruction of its opponent: a victory for the aggressor or the destruction of the aggressor. These are the only possible outcomes in Ukraine. Either the Ukrainian nation will cease to exist as we know it or Russia will lose and the Putin regime will fall. Any ceasefires, temporary retreats, or pauses are merely stages on the way to one of these final outcomes.

Appeasement is not a way to end the conflict, and any public relations victory it would produce for Trump would be fleeting. History tells us that appeasement is the greatest fuel for continued war. Negotiations can only work if the administration is willing to walk away.

. . . based on the testimony of Trump’s cabinet nominees in their confirmation hearings, the officials who will be managing America’s involvement do not understand the underlying dynamics—namely, that Putin’s hold on power is synonymous with continued war. Perhaps Secretary of State Marco Rubio, given his experience and previously voiced views, understands this, but, if so, he is afraid to say it.

America must stand up to Putin. If you think defeating Russia is expensive, it’s far cheaper than the trillions that will be required should Ukraine fall. If Putin is allowed to win in Ukraine, he will only move on to other targets and the price will keep going up. Putin made clear before the full-scale invasion that he sees his war in Ukraine as part of a larger political and military struggle against the West, especially the United States. The Biden administration never acknowledged this reality, but neither has Trump, at least not yet.

A victory for Putin means, in due time, a re-charting of the entire map of Europe, to suit his vision of a Russian empire that never lost the Cold War.

More at https://www.thebulwark.com/p/bad-things-happened-trump-still-doesnt-un
derstand-ukraine-war-putin-deal-davos

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, January 28, 2025 7:47 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russia’s Year of Truth: The Missing Military Hardware

In the last of a series of three pieces, Pavel Luzin goes behind the curtain of Russia's military-industrial complex to expose the weapons crisis in Vladimir Putin’s military.

By Pavel Luzin | Jan 22, 2025

Russia is struggling to increase arms production against a tide of permanently growing costs and a shortage of human and financial resources. Without a ceasefire, the Kremlin will face deeper imbalances in its domestic political economy and become strategically weaker.

2025 will be the last year Russia can rely on its massive stockpiles of Soviet-era conventional arms, including artillery, main battle tanks and armored vehicles.

If the intensity of combat, and consequent Russian losses, follow the same pattern as 2022–2024, most stockpiles will be exhausted by the second half of the year, forcing Moscow to rely on newly manufactured arms rather than repaired and modernized ones.

More at https://cepa.org/article/russias-year-of-truth-the-missing-military-ha
rdware/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, January 29, 2025 6:20 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Heavy losses don’t mean the Russians are losing the war

By David Axe | Jan 28, 2025, 09:16pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/28/a-lone-pickup-truck-t
agged-along-as-russian-troops-mounted-yet-another-failed-assault-in-kursk-ukrainian-drones-blew-up-the-pickup-last/

Russian marines and paratroopers are rolling their precious armored vehicles at Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast in western Russia—and running headlong into the Ukrainian army’s elite 47th Mechanized Brigade and its American-made M-2 fighting vehicles.

The result, so far, is a growing pile of smoldering wreckage. “Russians desperately trying to liberate Kursk Oblast and suffering huge losses,” according to Kriegsforscher, a Ukrainian marine corps drone operator whose team has been defending the same sector as the 47th Mechanized Brigade.

Incredibly, that doesn’t mean Russia is losing its wider war on Ukraine as the conflict grinds into its fourth year. Ukraine may not be sending as many hard-to-replace vehicles on nearly suicidal missions, but it’s still got profound problems of its own along the 800-mile front line.

A three-day assault starting on Jan. 18, led by the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade and 234th Air Assault Regiment left behind 14 wrecked BMP and BMD fighting vehicles and three T-80 tanks. A separate assault on or just before Tuesday involving at least four tanks and fighting vehicles—and a pickup truck—ended in the destruction of most or all of the vehicles.

A fast-moving Ukrainian force invaded Kursk in August, capturing what is now a 250-square-mile salient around the town of Sudzha. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin initially gave his forces, and their North Korean reinforcements, until February to eject the Ukrainians. But despite holding a 60,000-to-20,000 manpower advantage over the Ukrainians in Kursk, the Russians and North Koreans have made only marginal gains around the salient.

The growing heap of charred wreckage accumulating around Nikolskii, one of the villages the 47th Mechanized Brigade garrisons on the western edge of the salient, speaks to the Russians’ failure.

The fighting on Tuesday was typical. A Russian assault group riding in up-armored fighting vehicles and tanks—and that one pickup—rolled toward Ukrainian positions in broad daylight along the same roads they’ve always traveled in their botched attempts to roll up the Kursk salient.

Surveillance drones spotted the assault group. Explosive first-person-view drones got some of the Russian vehicles. The 47th Mechanized Brigade’s M-2s hit others with their fast-firing 25-millimeter autocannons. Bomb-dropping drones swooped in to clean up the stragglers. In the process, they bombed the pickup.

“Aren’t they sick and tired?” Kriegsforscher asked. “I really do not understand the point of attacking at the [same] place where they attack for the third month.” At the same time, the drone operator conceded that the Russians have made some gains—however slight—on the edges of the salient. “They continue fighting and advancing.”

But Russian and North Korean losses are unsustainable by any reasonable measure. Ukrainian officials claimed 30,000 Russians have been killed and wounded in Kursk. As many as 4,000 North Koreans have reportedly become casualties in the oblast, including some high-ranking officers. The Russians are losing so many armored vehicles in Kursk that regiments and brigades in other sectors of the front line now routinely attack in civilian compact cars.

Escalating losses are driving deep dysfunction in the battered Russian military. The Kremlin may be hoping that Ukrainian dysfunction is even worse—and it may be right.

The best and longest-serving Ukrainian brigades are desperate for fresh infantry, and yet leaders in Kyiv have assigned thousands of new recruits to newly formed brigades lacking experienced leaders and effective support units. Two of the new brigades have disintegrated, exposing their few intact sub-units to murderous Russian firepower—and getting a lot of green troops needlessly hurt or killed.

It’s a race to the bottom for both armies. The Russians are expending their last mechanized reserves for gains of a few yards. The Ukrainians are holding them off, and bleeding them pale, with under-manned brigades that—lacking access to fresh troops—shrink in size with every casualty they suffer.

Given the competing dynamics, the big question is: which army will collapse first?

Sources:
https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1881715106549280781
https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1880619725983732154
https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1881009974970896599
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1884269950241501331
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5
O5jWMTE&ll=51.30560037261048%2C35.210289115258426&z=15
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5
O5jWMTE&ll=51.308699044057995%2C35.23721849376795&z=12

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, January 29, 2025 6:23 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

A senior NATO official acknowledged that Russia is escalating a sabotage and destabilization campaign against European NATO member states to deter further military assistance to Ukraine. NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai stated at the European Parliament on January 28 that NATO states have faced acts of sabotage in recent years, including train derailments, arson, attacks against politicians' property, and assassination plots against defense industry figures, including a Kremlin plot to assassinate Rheinmetall Head Armin Papperger.[18] Appathurai emphasized that the Kremlin aims to "create disquiet to undermine support for Ukraine" and called for NATO states to more assertively deter Russian sabotage acts.[19] The Kremlin has consistently attempted to use information operations to deter Western states from providing additional military assistance to Ukraine.[20] The Kremlin's sabotage and destabilization campaign directly targeting NATO states supports ISW's assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin sees Russia as waging a hybrid war directly against NATO.[21]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-28-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, January 29, 2025 6:24 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The U.S. military transferred around 90 Patriot air defense interceptors from storage in Israel to Poland this week in order to deliver them to Ukraine.

This is the most significant delivery of weapons from Israel to Ukraine since the Russian invasion.

https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/us-patriot-missiles-ukraine-israel

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, January 29, 2025 7:37 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

EU lets in Russian LNG

By Victor Jack and Koen Verhelst | January 29, 2025 4:35 am CET

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-lets-russian-gas-slip-again-in-new-
sanctions-package/

The proposal will not include a blanket prohibition of LNG imports, as EU hawks have been urging. Instead, it would only stop Russian LNG from going to EU terminals not connected to the EU’s gas system — a restriction that won’t affect the majority of LNG imports.

New data shows the EU slurped up record volumes of LNG from Russia last month. Last year, Moscow’s LNG exports to the EU rose by almost 20 percent from 2023, according to a report out Tuesday.

Additionally, the new offering will push to restrict Moscow's aluminum exports, according to the three diplomats. The EU still relies on Russia for around 6 percent of its aluminum imports.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, January 29, 2025 9:07 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Ukraine struggles with troop shortages amid Western pressure

Ukraine has Western weapons, equipment, and ammunition, but the problem is the decreasing number of people willing to fight for the country, Ukrainian experts warn. "This is the essence of the crisis, a social problem, and changing the generals commanding on the front will not change it," said Evhen Dykyi, a veteran of the war with Russia.

By Tomasz Molga | 7:33 AM EST, January 29, 2025

https://conflictwatcher.com/ukraine-struggles-with-troop-shortages-ami
d-western-pressure,7119439132006017a

In 2022, many were ready to fight, but there was a lack of weapons. Now the situation has reversed. "There are weapons, but fewer willing to fight," said veteran and military analyst Evhen Dykyi in the Vechir.LIVE program. His statement was discussed on Tuesday by Ukrainian media, including the Unian agency.

"Partners are ready to supply us with equipment, but they may consider that we have too few people ready to fight," the Ukrainian veteran noted. "Moreover, they are partially aware of this. They're already asking: You keep asking for more weapons, but who will use them? Equipment deliveries are a matter for the West, and our responsibility is mobilization," he added.

Dykyi is a well-known Ukrainian military analyst, commentator, and veteran of the war with Russia. Referring to the gradual withdrawal of Ukrainian forces in the Donbas section, he said that the key issue for the entire front is ensuring reserves. "Mobilization, actions in the rear of the front are the essence of the crisis we have found ourselves in. Changing the generals commanding on the front will not change this," he added.

He also clearly referred to the recent decision of President Volodymyr Zelensky, who entrusted the command of a dramatically difficult defense section near Pokrovske to General Mykhailo Drapaty. The decision surprises experts because Gen. Drapaty is supposed to manage the battle and simultaneously remain the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces. This is the third decision to change the commander in the region within a year.

Ukraine under mobilization pressure; Polish tourist approached

Martial law in Ukraine has been extended, and conscription is ongoing. It includes all men aged 25 to 60 and volunteers aged 18 to 25. There is growing controversy around the actions of Territorial Recruitment Center employees, who stop men in public places: bars, gyms, on the street. We reported that around 100 TRC employees and police officers appeared at a concert in Kyiv to pick out conscripts from the audience.

This pressure has changed the country. On the streets of cities, you practically don't see middle-aged men unless they're in uniforms. Civilians stay home, fearing arrest. "During my last trip, I was checked six times on the street. If I didn't have my passport, I would have been detained under the pretext of evading the army," says Borys Tynka, a Pole and tourist guide in Odesa.

People don't want to talk about the war. Any mention of it causes divisions and arguments. Particularly sharply, there is talk of the possible draft of boys aged 18-25. I haven't met anyone who would support it," Tynka adds. "However, I talked to several mothers who, just in case, sent their sons abroad. They wouldn't change that decision for anything."

Pressure to lower mobilization age

Western countries are putting pressure on Ukraine, demanding the lowering of the mobilization age. National Security Advisor to President Trump, Mike Waltz, suggested that the lower age limit should be 18. According to him, such a decision could help stabilize the situation on the front because Ukraine faces serious personnel shortages.

President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to these suggestions, emphasizing that mobilizing more people without providing better armaments would not have the desired effect. He considered it "unfair" on the part of the West to simultaneously limit the supply of long-range weapons and pressure Ukraine on mobilizing young people.

An appeal titled "Don’t Pressure Ukraine To Feed Its Youth Into the Mouth of Russia’s War Machine" was even published by the opposition English-language service The Moscow Times. "By urging Ukraine to conscript 18-year-olds, the West risks a tragic gamble: sacrificing a generation to buy time for Europe's awakening and NATO's hesitation. Demographers have also raised red flags. Ella Libanova, director of Ukraine’s Institute of Demography, warns that lowering the draft age would cause a demographic crisis in the future," the commentary stated.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, January 29, 2025 9:07 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Don’t Pressure Ukraine To Feed Its Youth Into the Mouth of Russia’s War Machine

By Elena Davlikanova | Jan. 22, 2025

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/01/22/dont-pressure-ukraine-to-fee
d-its-youth-into-the-mouth-of-russias-war-machine-a87698

By urging Ukraine to conscript 18-year-olds, the West risks a tragic gamble: sacrificing a generation to buy time for Europe's awakening and NATO's hesitation.

Mike Waltz, Donald Trump’s pick for National Security Advisor, recently suggested that Ukraine should lower the draft age from 26 to 18. Framing this as a call for Ukraine to "be all in for democracy," he neglected the obvious irony: while Washington asks Kyiv for its youngest, it sends just enough weapons to prolong the fight but never enough to end it decisively.

The call is in line with the Biden administration approach, which had been met with widespread resistance in Ukraine earlier. Last year Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Advisor, claimed Ukraine’s battlefield struggles stem from a lack of manpower, not weapons. This ignores the hard truth: Ukraine’s manpower crisis is a direct result of the “too little too late” approach.

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko pointed out that mobilizing 18-year-olds offers little military advantage. “This age group is too small in size and too young for the brutal psychological demands of war,” he explains. Demographers have also raised red flags. Ella Libanova, director of Ukraine’s Institute of Demography, warns that lowering the draft age would cause a demographic crisis in the future.

Losing the 18-to-25-year-old age group, already one of Ukraine’s smallest due to declining birth rates, is a demographic time bomb set to explode long after the guns fall silent. Such a suggestion puts Ukraine at risk of becoming a hollow shell of a nation.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has been clear about the issue: “The focus should be on missiles and reducing Russia’s military potential, not on sending more of our youth to die.”

He is right. Ukrainians should not send fresh meat to Russia’s guns under increasingly nebulous promises of support.

But the real kicker is not that Ukraine is reluctant to draft its youth. It is the West’s failure to deliver what is truly needed. Ukraine has received less than half of the $177 billion the U.S. allocated to support Kyiv during the full-scale war, Zelensky revealed in an interview with U.S. podcaster Lex Fridman.

The West’s approach to Ukraine is as shortsighted as it is hypocritical. By holding back Moscow, Ukraine is giving the West time to wake up, rearm, rebuild, and rethink its relationship with Russia and its allies. But Ukrainian blood is not infinite, so bold decisions need to be made quickly. Realizing this harsh reality, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, warned that Europe has just five years to revive its defense industries or prepare to learn Russian.

What Ukraine truly needs is not another round of increasingly younger casualties but decisive action to secure its skies. Russia’s massive Jan. 15 missile and drone attack on Ukraine prompted Poland to scramble fighter jets to protect its airspace. Direct involvement in intercepting Russian missiles over Ukraine’s western border is long overdue.

While well-trained and propaganda-driven North Korean soldiers are actively engaging Ukrainian forces — with some already captured — discussions introduced by France and Poland about European boots on the ground have fallen silent. The hope for an internal coup in the Kremlin or another deus ex machina that ends the war has never materialized, now being substituted by overheated hopes to end the war fast. If negotiations fail, as with the more than 200 rounds of Ukraine-Russian peace talks since 2014, an urgent injection of fresh Ukrainian blood might not save the day.

After enduring prolonged restrictions on the use of Western-supplied weaponry — restrictions influenced by fears and electoral calculations — some have been finally lifted, marking a pivotal change in Ukraine's one-arm-tied fight. The "triple-tap" attack tactic, combining drones to distract Russian air defenses, followed by missile strikes and concluding with precision UAV attacks, is very effective at undermining Russia’s capabilities to attack Ukraine.

Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's official Center Against Disinformation, said that these attacks, utilizing British Storm Shadow cruise missiles and American ATACMS long-range rockets, have significantly damaged Russian infrastructure, including weapons manufacturing facilities, oil refineries and storage warehouses. But overly cautious restrictions on what Ukraine was allowed to do with those weapons meant they had not given Kyiv the advantage they could have.

More Western sanctions against Russia, especially its oil and banking sectors, is a further pillar of defeating Russia. An analysis by the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission of 2,500 components in Russian weapons revealed that a significant portion — 64% — originated from U.S.-based companies, making the United States the largest supplier of electronic components to the Russian war machine. Additionally, numerous components were sourced from European countries, including Switzerland, the Netherlands, Germany and Sweden, highlighting sanctions evasion.

Implementing these and other decisive and timely measures is far more effective against Russian aggression than deploying inexperienced yesterday’s schoolchildren to the front lines. As Zelensky emphasized, "The goal should be to save as many lives as possible, not to preserve weapons in stockpiles." If the West fails to grasp this, it risks sacrificing not only Ukraine's youth but also the very ideals of democracy and human dignity it professes to uphold.

What will happen if this cynical strategy fails? Another 15 million Ukrainians could flee to Europe, joining the 10 million already displaced. Chillingly, Russian troops would likely follow.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, January 30, 2025 8:20 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

If You Think the U.S. Will Abandon Ukraine Now, You Don't Know Donald Trump

Published Jan 29, 2025 at 9:49 AM EST

By Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian
Lester Crown Professor at Yale School of Management; Research Director at Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute

https://www.newsweek.com/if-you-think-us-will-abandon-ukraine-now-you-
dont-know-donald-trump-opinion-2022859

President Donald Trump's recent apparent switch of positions regarding Russia and Ukraine is surprising many, but it shouldn't. We write this not as diplomats or historians, but as informed leadership scholars who have known Trump personally for decades; and having recently spent time on the ground in Ukraine, Central Europe, and Central Asia, we believe there are good reasons for Trump to reverse his position and escape Russian President Vladimir Putin's quicksand.

In a startling flurry of Truth Social posts and press conference remarks since taking office, Trump has revealed his pragmatism over principle. After once condemning President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine, he now praises Zelensky as a seeker of peace. Similarly, Trump has flipped from expressing admiration for Putin to declaring that Putin is destroying Russia. To diplomatic scholars, this is a paradox. To leadership scholars, Trump's reversals demonstrate the consistency of his character. That is because of three distinctive qualities of Trump's leadership style.

Much more at https://www.newsweek.com/if-you-think-us-will-abandon-ukraine-now-you-
dont-know-donald-trump-opinion-2022859

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, January 30, 2025 8:21 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Putin continues efforts to coerce US President Donald Trump into bilateral negotiations that exclude Ukraine, impose his desired negotiation framework on Trump, and compel Trump to inadvertently endorse ongoing Russian information operations about the illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government. Putin's January 28 statements are part of a continued effort to position himself as Trump's equal and reinforce his long-held belief that Russia is the great-power heir to the Soviet Union.[14] Putin's statements also set conditions for Russia to violate any future peace agreements with Ukraine that Trump may hope to mediate and are yet another indication that Putin is not interested in compromising on his demands of complete regime change and the crippling of Ukraine's military as conditions for peace.[15] Putin's efforts to strongarm Trump are also part of a concerted Russian effort to force the West to acknowledge and endorse Russian information operations about the illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government and an enduring Ukrainian state. ISW previously noted that Western acquiescence to all of Russia's demands in Ukraine would require the West to acknowledge and agree that the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate and that a Ukrainian identity and state independent from Russia either does not currently exist and/or does not deserve to exist in the future.[16]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-29-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, January 31, 2025 7:22 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution on January 28 defining its position on peace in Ukraine, closely echoing the principle of "peace through strength" that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky previously outlined.[14] The resolution called for unwavering European support to Ukraine and noted that sustainable peace negotiations can only be achieved from a position of Ukrainian strength. The resolution stated that negotiations regarding an end to the war in Ukraine can only be conducted with direct Ukrainian involvement and if Russia abandons its “imperial ambitions.” The resolution also condemned Russia's violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity and commended Ukraine's progress towards European Union (EU) membership. Zelensky has previously highlighted that sustainable and just peace in Ukraine should be achieved through enhanced military support to Ukraine, especially given Russia's reluctance to engage in good-faith negotiations and continued maximalist and imperialist ambitions.[15]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-30-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, January 31, 2025 5:04 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Ukraine’s latest unmanned aerial vehicle can fly 1,200 miles, drop a 550-pound bomb and return to base, making it potentially the most powerful reusable drone in the Russia-Ukraine war.

The Ukrainian military’s unmanned systems branch confirmed the rumored development on Friday. “We see that the actions of the Unmanned Systems Forces are attracting attention from both domestic and international media,” the branch stated.

The branch command “confirms the use of a long-range UAV, capable of carrying a 250-kilogram air bomb and reaching up to 2,000 kilometers with the possibility of return. This is a unique development that changes the rules of the game on the battlefield.”

In making its longest-range drones reusable, the drone branch could multiply the number and pace of deep strikes it conducts against targets inside Russia, which have lately included bomber bases and oil facilities. The strikes have depressed oil production in a country that utterly relies on energy exports for state revenue.

In the three years since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, Kyiv’s engineers have developed a startling array of increasingly far-flying drones. Recent strikes on Russian targets more than 1,000 miles from the front line may have hinted at the emergence of the reusable bomber drone that the Unmanned Systems Forces announced on Friday.

More at https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/31/ukraines-new-drone-bo
mber-flies-1200-miles-with-a-550-pound-bomb-and-returns-to-base/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, February 1, 2025 3:42 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Before Trump was elected, I worried what would happen, given Trump's ego, when he found he couldn't "maximum pressure" Russia.

Well. First Kellogg floated the "cease fire" idea. Russia reiterated it would not accept a ceasefire.

So Kellogg was apparently set aside for the master negotiator to work.

Then Trump tried bullhorn diplomacy ... "100 days"... "sanctions like you wouldn't believe" ... "Russia's economy is no good" .... "1000,000 dead".... "do them a favor" Russia responded with a "ho hum".

A 'timeline' was floated by ... somebody... outlining the steps whereby a peace could be negotiated, i.e. rammed thru, in 3 months.
Russia repeated its long sad history with the west breaking agreements, and said that every detail must be nailed down, and furthermore there must be ironclad guarantees.

Trump tried to get Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices. OPEC-plus said ... "nah..."

Someone finally clued Trump in that he has an incredibly weak hand, with no leverage on Russia, but some on Zelensky.

So now aid the Ukriane has been halted. Since 90% of Ukraine "independent" media was funded by the State Dept thru NGOS, Ukraine propaganda has slowed down.

Some EU nations are talking about opening up Russian pipeline gas again.

Marco Rubio is talking about American interests and a long, hard diplomatic slog with Russia.

Meanwhile ...

After closing the cauldrons in Ugledar and Selidova Novasilka, Russia appears to be closing cauldrons up the line. One, south of Krasnogorovka reservoir, is an incredible 5 MILES deep, and very narrow. Unlikely anyone will escape that one.

Also, closing cauldrons at Toretsk and Chasov Yar. The Russians have also established a large bridgehead on the Ukraine side of the Oskol River, and appear to be establishing a ginormous cauldron in teh northeast, and one in Kursk the size of the Ukrainian incursion.

Budanov, the Ukrainian chief spook, reportedly told the Rada (parliament) that Ukraine has only 6 months.

Anyway, we'll see what happens next.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, February 1, 2025 7:23 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Russian military command has shown that it is willing to commit to operations that could take six to nine months to conclude. Russian commanders are likely operating under the assumption or direct knowledge that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intend to end the war in Ukraine in the near future. Russian forces have been incrementally working to push Ukrainian forces from the east bank of the Oskil River since Winter 2023-2024, and the Russian military command has previously deprioritized the Kupyansk-Borova-Lyman line in favor of other operational efforts in Ukraine.[24] The envelopment of Kupyansk will almost certainly be a months-long effort that requires Russian forces to close a gap 25 to 30 kilometers wide while also fording and maintaining logistics across the Oskil River, seizing small settlements in their path, and repelling Ukrainian counterattacks. Mashovets and a Russian milblogger have suggested that the Russian military command may intend to leverage advances near Dvorichna and Vovchansk to advance on Velykyi Burluk from the northwest and southeast.[25] Russian forces are currently 30 and 35 kilometers from Velykyi Burluk from their closest point of advance in the Kupyansk and Vovchansk directions respectively, and Russian forces could spend six months to a year making slow, grinding advances toward Velykyi Burluk before they truly threaten the settlement.

Russian commanders do not seem concerned about the speed or consistency of their advances in Ukraine, likely because they believe that the war will drag on until Russia militarily defeats Ukraine. The Russian military expended four months on the seizure of Avdiivka, spent most of 2024 working to level the frontline in western Donetsk Oblast, and has devoted the last three years to seizing the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts but does not appear particularly concerned with expediting these advances.[26] Putin has previously articulated a theory of victory that assumes that the Russian military will be able to continue gradual, creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely and has repeatedly indicated that he has no interest in a resolution of the war on any terms but those he dictates.[27] Putin's commanders are internalizing these statements and likely coming to the logical conclusion that Putin has no interest in ending the war and intends to continue fighting until he accomplishes his objectives in Ukraine, which are the toppling of the current Ukrainian government and the categorical destruction of the Ukrainian military.[28]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-31-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, February 1, 2025 7:28 PM

THG

Putin, run...

T

DISASTER! Russian Manpower Crisis: Five-Fold Drop in Conscription

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, February 1, 2025 7:34 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Man... That would be awful for Russia, if true.

They'd be like Hollywood celebrities running away from their houses as they burned down.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, February 1, 2025 11:57 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
SECOND
The Russian military command has shown that it is willing to commit to operations that could take six to nine months to conclude.

Quote:
THUGR
DISASTER! Russian Manpower Crisis: Five-Fold Drop in Conscription

These cant both be right at the same time.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, February 2, 2025 5:06 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
SECOND
The Russian military command has shown that it is willing to commit to operations that could take six to nine months to conclude.

Quote:
THUGR
DISASTER! Russian Manpower Crisis: Five-Fold Drop in Conscription

These cant both be right at the same time.

Both can be true at the same time. I have seen a project fail when a manager committed himself to finishing in nine months but did not have enough workers who could make it happen. Substitute the words "War" and "Soldiers" for 'project' and 'workers' to see what could happen to "Putin", who is a 'manager'.

At the 12-month mark on the 9-month project, the manager resigned. I don't think Putin will resign if he doesn't finish his Ukrainian project in 12 months but he doesn't have forever to finish.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, February 2, 2025 5:07 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russia's Quiet Conquest: Belarus

By George Barros | January 15, 2025

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russias-quiet-conquest-b
elarus

Russia’s effort to de facto annex Belarus poses strategic risks to the United States, NATO, and Ukraine.

The Kremlin is in the endgame of a decades’ long strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus — an effort which will permanently augment Russia’s military and economic capabilities to pursue its revanchist geopolitical objectives against the United States and NATO. Moscow’s effort to de facto annex Belarus through the Union State framework, while incomplete, has already achieved significant gains, requiring NATO to reevaluate the implications of Russia’s growing control over Belarus and the capabilities and resources Russia can leverage against the United States, NATO, and Ukraine as a result. Belarus is not merely a Russian-aligned ally; the Kremlin is transforming Belarus into a strategic enabler for Russia’s ability to project power globally. The Kremlin will leverage its recent but deep-rooted gains in Belarus to offset costs from Russia’s protracted war against Ukraine, accelerate Russia’s recovery following the war in Ukraine, and help Russia prepare for future wars more rapidly than Russia could by itself. Policymakers must start planning for a future in which Belarus is not only a captive nation but also effectively an extension of the Russian Federation.

The Kremlin seeks to de facto annex Belarus by formalizing the Union State as a Russian-dominated federated government that grants Moscow dominant power over most if not all aspects of Belarusian governance. This includes establishing full operational and administrative control over Belarus’ armed forces during peacetime and permanent Russian military basing in Belarus; a political union with a Kremlin-dominated federated government with a common set of federal laws and institutions for Belarusians and Russians to be governed as a single polity; and a fully integrated economy complete with common markets, free labor flows, unified laws, and a currency union. The Kremlin very likely plans to leverage Belarus’ population of 9.155 million people, Belarus’ geostrategic territory on NATO’s eastern flank, and Belarus’ economic resources in service of Russian state power.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, February 2, 2025 7:48 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

One Ukrainian Brigade Lost Entire Companies In ‘Futile’ Attacks On Worthless Treelines

The 92nd Assault Brigade is effective on the defense, but conditions aren’t right for a major attack.

By David Axe | Feb 1, 2025, 09:16pm EST

Combining their drones, mines, missiles and artillery, the Ukrainian army’s 47th Mechanized Brigade and 92nd Assault Brigade not only resisted a Russian assault on their positions in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast on Friday—they destroyed it, leaving a strip of the forest in the oblast littered with dead Russians.

It was an important victory for the two elite brigades—but a victory that could come with surprising risks. According to one Ukrainian combat veteran who goes by “Constantine,” there’s a dangerous tendency among some Ukrainian commanders to assume units that are effective on the defense are equally ready to attack.

So when a formation such as the 92nd Assault Brigade defends its lines from a Russian assault, some commanders might be tempted to order the unit to leave its fortifications, mass on open ground and move toward Russian lines. But attacking is riskier than defending—and tends to get more troops killed.

The Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade, deployed to Kursk alongside the 92nd Assault Brigade, rediscovered this truism the hard way in early January, when it rapidly shifted from defense to offense and advanced toward the village of Berdin, just north of the main Ukrainian line. A clutch of Russia’s best fiber optic drones blasted the exposed Ukrainian paratroopers, inflicting heavy casualties and defeating the ill-advised attack.

The same thing has happened to the 92nd Assault Brigade more than once. The part of the brigade that has been fighting in Kursk “has had its staff replaced three times over the three years” of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine “due to futile orders to seize a treeline at the cost of an entire companies,” Constantine explained. A company normally has more than 100 troops.

Left unsaid in Constantine’s criticism is an implied endorsement of the most obvious Ukrainian strategy as the wider war grinds into its fourth year. Dug-in Ukrainian brigades with intact supply lines and support from drones and artillery routinely inflict horrific casualties on Russian troops—at times killing or maiming hundreds in a single clash.

The Russians have no choice but to attack, as the Kremlin’s war aims are mostly offensive in nature: primarily, to capture as much of eastern Ukraine as possible, as fast as possible.

The Ukrainians can lay their mines, pre-sight their artillery kill zones and arm their drones—and confidently wait for the Russians to come rolling or marching across the shell-pocked no-man’s land. “Experienced Ukrainian units are highly effective at repelling Russian attacks,” Constantine noted.

By comparison, there’s a Ukrainian definition of winning this war that doesn’t require much in the way of offensive action. Kyiv’s forces can kill so many Russians, destroy so much Russian equipment and inflict such harm on Russian morale that Moscow’s forces collapse. Only then, amid their enemy’s unraveling, would the Ukrainians leave their trenches and advance.

It’s happened before. In the fall of 2022, Russian troops were badly depleted by their failed offensive toward Kyiv that had kicked off the wider war six months earlier. Careful Ukrainian reconnaissance detected weakness in certain stretches of the Russian front line around the northeastern city of Kharkiv. A handful of Ukraine’s best brigades exploited this weakness, breached Russian lines and sparked a panic among the exhausted Russians.

The Russians retreated. The Ukrainians advanced behind them—and quickly liberated almost all of northeastern Ukraine.

The 92nd Assault Brigade, then designated the 92nd Mechanized Brigade, executed one of the most impressive maneuvers of this counteroffensive when it quickly marched more than 50 miles from the village of Pryshyb to the city of Kupyansk. Today the city remains free.

Ukraine’s 2022 counteroffensive succeeded because it was preceded by a much longer defensive operation that bled Russia pale. By comparison, Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive along the southern front was preceded by a long stalemate that afforded Russian field armies ample time to reinforce their front-line units, dig trenches and lay mines.

It should’ve surprised no one that the 2023 offensive failed.

If the disparate outcomes of Ukraine’s separate 2022 and 2023 counteroffensives tell us anything, it’s that timing is everything. There could come a time when Russia is weak and Ukraine is strong and Ukrainian brigades can go on the attack with reasonable expectations they’ll achieve something meaningful and lasting.

With Russia still holding a significant manpower and firepower advantage over Ukraine despite staggering Russian losses, that time is not now.

The 92nd Assault Brigade is holding defensible ground with effective weapons and inflicting heavy casualties on Russian assault groups. It’s doing what it needs to do to set favorable conditions for some future negotiated peace or, barring that, an eventual Ukrainian attack on the weakened Russians.

In the meantime, “commanders should prioritize preserving the lives of our experienced troops,” Constantine urged. Hold now so they can win later.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, February 2, 2025 1:50 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

It's true that defense is generally less costly than offense. But if Ukrainian troops are so good defense, why are they getting killed or captured by the hundreds in places like Avdiivka, Uglader, Selidova Novosilka, Krasnagorovka, Chasov Yar, Toretsk, etc? And why will they continue to die by the thousands*, defending every last millimeter and every last toehold?

Rather than frontal assaults, Russia has been flanking important objectives, cutting most lines of "communication" (i.e. roads, bridges), creating pockets and cauldrons. Kiev military command will not order organized retreats from them. Sometimes they even stupidly send more troops in. The troops inside these cauldrons are abandoned to their fate. Some escape, many are killed in the attempt bc the one route remaining is nothing more than a gauntlet. Troops inside are either killed or surrender.

Analysts have been decrying Ukraine's approach of not organizing proper retreats from indefensible positions. The consensus seems to be that it would be better to retreat to the Dnieper, "trading space for time" ... but only if Kiev is organizing a proper defensive line there, with trenches, mines, artillery and drones all focused on that line. Are they?

I feel for Ukrainian soldiers. Many of the newer recruits abandon their units, but tge older recruits are dogged fighters, even when the odds are hopeless.

*Russian MOD reports Ukraine has been losing on the average 50,000 soldiers per month for the last six months. Overall, I trust Russia's MOD for accuracy [on some thngs] far more than Kiev. Russia's MOD stays very quiet about losses (unless it's so public they have to acknowledge) but when they announce a position being taken or Ukrainian losses, they are if anything conservative.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, February 3, 2025 8:22 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russia continues efforts to illegally deport Ukrainian children to occupied Crimea and Russia under the guise of evacuation and rehabilitation programs. Ukrainian Presidential Advisor on Children's Issues Daria Herasymchuk reported on February 2 that Russia has illegally deported at least 20,000 Ukrainian children since 2022 and that Ukraine has repatriated 1,189 children with support from humanitarian organizations and Qatar, South Africa, and the Vatican.[7] Herasymchuk stated that Russian authorities have killed Ukrainian parents, kidnapped their children, and transported the children to "rehabilitation" or "evacuation" camps in occupied Crimea. Herasymchuk stated that Russian authorities have also separated children from their families in illegal filtration camps. Ukraine's Regional Human Rights Center identified 13 such "rehabilitation" or "evacuation" camps in occupied Crimea alone. Russian authorities reportedly use the camps in occupied Crimea to indoctrinate and militarize Ukrainian children before further deporting them to Russia for adoption. Herasymchuk warned that Russian authorities are increasingly attempting to mobilize Ukrainian teenage boys into the Russian military - a violation of the Geneva Convention.[8] ISW has reported extensively on Russia's crimes in occupied Ukraine, including the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.[9] The United Nations Genocide Convention Article 2 defines "forcibly transferring children of a group to another group" as an act constituting genocide.[10]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-february-2-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, February 3, 2025 1:35 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Did Biden think Harris was certain to win the election?

A competent executive knows that high priority initiatives need their constant attention to overcome bureaucratic resistance and infighting. This is true in the private sector and in government. Yet this is what we got from Biden:

Quote:
In the final year of President Joe Biden’s term, decisions on key shipments and weapons in Ukraine were stalled not just by months of congressional delays, but also by internal debates over escalation risks with Russia, as well as concerns over whether the U.S. stockpile was sufficient, a Reuters investigation found. Adding to the confusion was a chaotic weapons-tracking system in which even the definition of “delivered” differed among U.S. military branches.

Delays were worst during the months it took Congress to pass $60 billion in supplemental aid for Ukraine, held up by opposition from Donald Trump and congressional Republicans amid Trump’s successful run for president. But the jam continued well after the money was approved, according to a Reuters analysis of official announcements, U.S. spending data and interviews with more than 40 Ukrainian and American officials, congressional aides and lawmakers. Most spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive national security deliberations.

[. . .]

By November, just about half of the total dollar amount the U.S. had promised in 2024 from American stockpiles had been delivered, and only about 30% of promised armored vehicles had arrived by early December, according to two congressional aides, a U.S. official, and a lawmaker briefed on the data.

https://angrybearblog.com/2025/02/biden-was-a-complacent-and-ineffectu
al-president

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, February 3, 2025 8:29 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Zelensky doesn't know where all the money went...

Quote:
Zelenskyy: Ukraine received US$76 billion out of US$177 billion approved by America

... But when it’s said that Ukraine received US$200 billion to support the army during the war – that’s not true. I don’t know where all that money went. Perhaps it’s true on paper with hundreds of different programmes – I won’t argue, and we’re immensely grateful for everything. But in reality, we received about US$76 billion. It’s significant aid, but it’s not US$200 billion." ...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/zelenskyy-ukraine-received-us-76-184337849.
html

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, February 4, 2025 5:10 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Reports of torture and execution of Russian civilians in Kursk by Ukrainian military.

Ukrainians reportedly fired a HIMARS missile at a school in Sudza, Kursk, where a number of elderly were sheltering.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, February 4, 2025 6:34 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russian forces continued to suffer high losses in January 2025 despite a slower rate of advance as compared with previous months in late 2024. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on February 3 that Russian forces suffered 48,240 casualties – over three Russian motorized rifle divisions worth of personnel – in January 2025, making January the second-highest month of losses since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.[1] ISW has observed geolocated evidence to assess that Russian forces gained roughly 498 square kilometers in January in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, or roughly 16.1 square kilometers per day. The available figures suggest Russian forces suffered roughly 96 casualties per square kilometer of territory seized. The Ukrainian MoD reported that Russian forces suffered 48,670 casualties in December 2024 – their highest monthly casualty rate since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion – and ISW assessed that Russian forces gained a total of 593 square kilometers in December 2024. The roughly 100-square-kilometer decrease in seized territory between December 2024 and January 2025, coupled with a similar monthly casualty rate, indicates that Russian forces are taking the same high level of losses despite achieving fewer territorial advances in the near term. ISW previously observed that Russian advances slowed from November 2024 to December 2024.[2] ISW previously assessed that the Russian military command likely tolerated record levels of personnel casualties from September 2024 through November 2024 to facilitate larger territorial gains, but it remains unclear whether the Russian military command will be willing to sustain such casualties if Russian forces' rate of advance continues to decline as Russian forces are advancing on more heavily defended settlements such as Pokrovsk.[3]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-february-3-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, February 4, 2025 6:36 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

News from Pokrovsk

It Took Drones Mere Seconds To Kill All 11 Russians Deploying From A BTR-82 Vehicle Outside Pokrovsk

Many Russian recruits survive just eight days after signing their contracts.

By David Axe | Feb 3, 2025, 05:36pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/02/03/it-took-drones-mere-s
econds-to-kill-all-11-russians-deploying-from-a-btr-82-vehicle-outside-pokrovsk/

Ukrainian drones were watching the whole time as a lone Russian BTR-82 wheeled fighting vehicle raced across the shell-pocked no-man’s-land in broad daylight outside Pokrovsk recently.

Firing its autocannon as it moved, the vehicle succeeded in reaching the ruins of a building. The 11 Russian infantry packed surely didn’t know the drones were waiting directly overhead. They didn’t know, as they piled out of the vehicle, they had seconds to live.

The drones from the Ukrainian 5th Assault Brigade dropped bombs on the hapless infantry, killing all 11.

The small, unsupported and doomed assault is indicative of wider trends across the 800-mile front line of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine as the conflict grinds into its 36th month. Attacks might last a few minutes before most or all of the attackers are dead or wounded. Many Russian recruits die within days of deploying to the front line.

“A guy, 18 years old, [had] 20 minutes at the front,” one Russian defector told media including The Moscow Times and Radio Free Europe. “A [first-person-view] drone flew at him with a TNT block—that was it. They turn [you] to dust straight away.” In the busiest sectors, there are five Ukrainian drones for every Russian soldier, the defector said.

The Ukrainians’ overwhelming drone advantage doesn’t mean they’re winning the war. But it might be preventing them from losing as Russia continues mobilizing more soldiers and marching them into battle with less and less support. The lucky Russians ride in the dwindling number of armored vehicles. The unlucky ones ride in compact cars—or walk.

The Russians are still advancing. But every yard they capture costs them dearly. Russian war correspondent Roma Sapozhnikov expressed dismay recently when he learned that many recruits survive just a week after signing their contracts. “Just eight days from signing to death,” Sapozhnikov wrote.

According to Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the top Ukrainian commander, Russia suffered 434,000 casualties, including 150,000 dead in 2024. That’s more killed and injured Russian troops than in the previous two years combined. Total Russian casualties since February 2022 could be close to 800,000.

Ukrainian losses since early 2022 are much lower: 43,000 killed and 370,000 injured, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky said in December. In the best-defended sectors, the Ukrainians kill seven Russians for every Ukrainian soldier the Russians kill, the defector claimed.

Russian assault groups are practically “suicide bombers,” according to the defector. On average, he said, just one out of five infantry survive an assault. In that sense, the 11-person squad the Ukrainian 5th Assault Battalion massacred outside Pokrovsk recently was only slightly less lucky than the typical Russian squad.

How long the Kremlin can sustain such a costly war effort is a question only the Kremlin—and Russian society at large—can answer. But the answer isn’t “indefinitely.”

Sources:

1. 5th Assault Brigade

2. Radio Free Europe via ChrisO_Wiki

3. The Moscow Times

4. Roma Sapozhnikov

5. The Guardian

6. Politico

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, February 4, 2025 2:07 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported ..

That's as far as I read.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, February 4, 2025 2:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported ..

That's as far as I read.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, February 4, 2025 4:08 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Rising Russian inquiries reveal scale of missing soldiers in Ukraine

In January, Ukraine reported a record number of inquiries from Russians about missing Russian army soldiers, according to the Ukrainian Coordinating Staff for Prisoners of War's Telegram channel.

By CMZ | 3:17 PM EST, February 4, 2025

https://essanews.com/rising-russian-inquiries-reveal-scale-of-missing-
soldiers-in-ukraine,7121712051005569a

Based on the staff's data, in the first month of 2025, the "I Want to Find" project received 8,548 inquiries from relatives of Russian military personnel.

This is 22 percent more than in December, marking the highest number in the history of the initiative.

Russians are searching for their loved ones

In total, since the project began, more than 60,000 inquiries about missing soldiers in the Russian army have been submitted.

The statement noted that this number does not include the deceased and represents only a portion of the actual number of missing, as it is based solely on official requests.

The actual number of missing Russians is estimated to be 2-3 times higher.

The staff confirmed that 1,790 soldiers in Russian captivity were listed on the search lists as part of the project.

408 of these soldiers have already been exchanged for Ukrainian prisoners of war. It was emphasized that the steady increase in inquiries in the "I Want to Find" project indicates the significant losses faced by the Russian army in the war against Ukraine.

Meanwhile, according to "Mediazona," in 2024, Russian military units widely submitted applications to classify participants in the invasion of Ukraine as missing or dead. This allowed the command to remove them from the personnel list, paving the way for recruiting new soldiers.

Journalists discovered more than 6,200 such cases, and thousands more applications from the second half of 2024 were classified, suggesting a potential connection to soldiers fighting in Ukraine.

Putin's relative let it slip; colleagues reacted

In December 2024, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anna Cywileva, a niece of Vladimir Putin, revealed during a round table in the State Duma that at least 48,000 Russians participating in the war against Ukraine are listed as missing without a trace.

The chairman of the Duma's defense committee, Andrei Kartapolov, who was present at the meeting, urged the deputies not to disclose this data.

"This is sensitive, confidential information. When the final documents are drawn up, we must ensure these figures do not appear anywhere," he said.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, February 4, 2025 5:14 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

It's a shame how many people had to die because of Joe Biden* and the Democrats.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, February 4, 2025 8:50 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It's a shame how many people had to die because of Joe Biden* and the Democrats.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

6ix, it's a shame that you are a stupid fucking bastard who can't understand when Russians are murdering Ukrainians and stealing their land. Many Russians are being repaid with death from drones hovering above them.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, February 5, 2025 6:02 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) proposed a draft amendment on February 3 to reclassify some illnesses, diseases, and disorders for conscripts and those signing military service contracts. The Russian MoD proposed reclassifying syphilis, hypertension, central nervous system atrophy disorders, skin diseases, schizophrenia, psychotic disorders, affective disorder, and other health problems as more minor ailments that do not disqualify someone from service.[13] Radio Svoboda, citing the Russian Movement of Conscientious Objectors, reported that the Russian MoD's proposal would make it more difficult for conscripts to obtain military service exemptions for health reasons and would complicate dismissal procedures for mobilized personnel and servicemembers who signed a military service contract.[14]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-february-4-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, February 5, 2025 6:09 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

By fleeing to the EU, millions of Ukrainians collapsed their country's economy

Zelenskyy: $35 billion flight triggered economic collapse

February 5, 2025, 03:54 AM

https://english.nv.ua/nation/capital-outflow-after-russian-invasion-tr
iggered-ukraine-s-economic-collapse-50487411.html

Ukrainians took $35 billion abroad in the first year of the full-scale invasion, which led to the collapse of the economy, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with an English broadcaster and journalist Piers Morgan on Feb. 4.

“No one could stop them. It's their money, it's their rights, they are free. But not only did they take it out, they transferred their accounts abroad - to Europe, the United States and other countries. Yes, our economy collapsed. And one of the reasons was exactly this - the withdrawal of large capital from Ukraine.”

On Jan. 22, EU’s Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said that in 2025 the European Union plans to provide Ukraine with EUR 35 billion ($36.4 billion) in financial aid.

The World Bank has downgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Ukraine to 2% from 6.5% in its June report but raised the 2026 forecast to 7% from 5.1%, according to its Global Economic Prospects report published on Jan. 17, 2025.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/world-bank-lowers-ukraine-s-2025-gdp-grow
th-forecast-to-2-amid-ongoing-conflict-50482443.html

“Growth in Ukraine is projected to slow to 2% in 2025, assuming active hostilities persist throughout the year. In 2026, with an anticipated cessation of fighting, a strong recovery of 7% is expected, driven by consumption and reconstruction investments,” the report stated.

The forecast remains contingent on the timeline and scale of external aid and the duration of Russia’s invasion.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, February 5, 2025 7:34 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

$10 Billion on the table: Trump, Congress weigh Ukraine’s Miltech investment potential

February 5, 2025, 03:26 AM

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-s-miltech-breakthrough-how-10b-in
vestment-could-boost-u-s-defense-50487396.html

The Ukrainian-American defense fund MITS has estimated that a $10 billion investment in Ukraine’s defense industry could significantly change the battlefield situation.

The war in Ukraine underscores the dominant role of drones in the air, on land, and at sea. In response to Russia’s invasion, Ukrainian entrepreneurs, in collaboration with military volunteers, have developed equipment with capabilities that the U.S. currently lacks, according to an MITS address to President Donald Trump and Congress.

For example, the average production cost of a drone in the U.S. is several times higher than in Ukraine. At the same time, Ukrainian drones have a longer flight range and greater payload capacity. They are powered by artificial intelligence and resistant to interference, whereas American drones are not always effective in electronic warfare conditions.

For two years, MITS Capital has been advancing new combat systems, including stratospheric payload carriers, electronic warfare-resistant control systems, AI-based targeting and optical navigation, drone detection using acoustic and AI systems, enhanced imaging cameras, high-performance drone engines, and rocket propulsion systems.

These technologies have been tested in combat, and 90% of them are currently in operational use.

Manufactured in Ukraine, they cost less than half—or sometimes just a tenth—of the equivalent cost in the U.S., according to an MITS Capital statement. “The U.S. may use what has been developed and put into production in Ukraine for its own benefit. These weapon systems are not only cost-effective but also ready for rapid deployment,” the statement reads.

In 2025, Ukraine’s arms production is expected to double, and alternatives to Chinese components can be sourced in the U.S. MITS Capital also emphasizes that Ukraine has a critical base of land resources that could be integrated into the U.S. defense supply chain.

Global military advantage will depend on the ability to produce military products on a large scale at a competitive price—specifically, drones. The U.S. is not currently capable of this.

Ukraine is the only country in the Western world with a defense-industrial base that can rival China in both capacity and cost structure. Historically, Ukraine has always been a center for military development and component production, MITS Capital notes.

Ukraine also holds mineral reserves critical for defense, valued at more than $25 trillion, reducing dependence on hostile supply chains.

“American investments of $10 billion in Ukraine’s defense sector would create a strategic foothold in a key industry, providing leverage against adversaries and strengthening U.S. defense capabilities with battle-proven innovations,” the company stated.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, February 5, 2025 3:33 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

After Losing 15,000 Vehicles, Some Russian Troops In Ukraine Are Riding Horses
‘The lads in Ukraine saddled up.’

By David Axe | Feb 04, 2025, 03:34pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/02/04/after-losing-15000-ve
hicles-some-russian-troops-in-ukraine-are-riding-horses/

It was perhaps inevitable, as Russian vehicle losses in Ukraine exceeded 15,000, production of new vehicles lagged and stocks of old Cold War vehicles ran low late last year, that Russian troops in Ukraine would eventually climb onto horses.

It’s finally happened. A video that circulated on social media this week depicts two Russian soldiers riding horses across the muddy Ukrainian landscape. “Look, the lads in Ukraine saddled up a horse,” one soldier quipped.

Compelled to cross the mine-infested, artillery-pocked, drone-patrolled no-man’s-land in order to sustain their yearlong offensives in eastern Ukraine—as well as their somewhat newer counteroffensive targeting the Ukrainian-held salient in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast—Russian mechanized regiments have been losing armored vehicles at an annualized rate of 6,000 a year.

That’s far too many for Russian factories to replace. Russia builds maybe 200 new BMP-3 fighting vehicles and 90 new T-90M tanks annually as well as a few hundred other new armored vehicles, including BTR-82 wheeled fighting vehicles.

Russian war correspondent Roma Sapozhnikov blamed industrial managers. “The feeling is that those who are responsible for rearming the army with [armored fighting vehicles] and tanks … froze and abstracted themselves from the problems of the front and the armed forces of the warring country,” he wrote.

For the first two years of the three-year wider war, the Kremlin comfortably made up the four-figure gap between losses and production by pulling old Cold War vehicles out of long-term storage.

The Cold War storage yards once held vast stocks of old tanks and other armored vehicles. But now even these stocks are running low. Open-source analyst Jompy scrutinized three vehicle parks and concluded most of the remaining vehicles hadn’t moved in years. “A vehicle that doesn’t move for so long is a dead vehicle,” Jompy explained.

With armored vehicles—even very old ones—becoming increasingly rare in Russian service, more Russian assault groups are riding in civilian vans and compact cars. Horses may be next.

This de-mechanization exposes Russian infantry to withering Ukrainian firepower—and gets a lot of troops killed unnecessarily, Sapozhnikov wrote. Civilian vehicles, pressed into front-line service, are “complete shit that burns and kills our soldiers,” a source told Sapozhnikov.

But that doesn’t mean Russia is losing the wider war. As bad as Russia’s force-generation problems are, Ukraine’s are worse.

“Russian forces are sustaining heavy losses,” Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight explained. “However, they continue advancing in multiple areas where Ukrainian defenses are stretched thin due to manpower shortages—and where Russia has been able to concentrate superior numbers.”

Sources:
1. Oryx
2. Anton Gerashchenko
3. Jompy
4. Frontelligence Insight

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, February 5, 2025 5:54 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Nearly everything that David Axe writes is wrong.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, February 5, 2025 6:01 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Trump doesn't have systematic, well thought out plans and contingencies.

He does, however (and unlike neocons) respond to reality. He squirts in the direction of least pressure consistent with his goals.

He wants out of Ukraine. I think he's finding Russia pretty intransigent and resistant to pressure. He DOES, however, have tremednous leverage over Kiev. He might be thinking to force UKRAINE to negotiate with Russia. Given the huge disadvantage that Ukraine is under, it would be a virtual surrender. Maybe Trump could ride to the rescue as some sort of guatantor ... altho I don't see why Russia would trust Trump to keep his word any more than any other western politician.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, February 5, 2025 8:06 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Z, dood, stop snorting so much coke!

Quote:
Kremlin Says Zelensky Is 'Delusional' & 'Approaching Madness' After Nuclear CommentsZelensky told Morgan: "Will we be given nuclear weapons? Then, let them give us nuclear weapons. Will they give us the missiles in the quantities [needed to] stop Russia? I’m not sure of that, but I think it would help. Otherwise, what missiles can stop Russia’s nuclear missiles?" He added: "That’s a rhetorical question."

And that's when he urged more seriously, "So, let’s do it the following way: Give us back nuclear arms. Give us missile systems. Partners, help us finance the one-million[-man] army, move your contingent on the parts of our state where we want the stability of the situation, so that the people have tranquility."

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kremlin-says-zelensky-delusiona
l-approaching-madness-after-nuclear-comments

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, February 6, 2025 7:13 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

https://i.imgur.com/Fvj3AQ8.jpeg

The 155th Russian marines. They went missing in October and were found only now. They are all dead. The 155th is famous for it's horrendous war crimes and slaughtering of civilians. Now they are gone, completely, with no survivors. Karma is a bitch.
https://imgur.com/gallery/155th-russian-marines-they-went-missing-octo
ber-were-found-only-now-they-are-all-dead-155th-is-famous-its-horrendous-war-crimes-slaughtering-of-civilians-now-they-are-gone-completely-with-no-survivors-karma-is-3ba2tJv

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, February 6, 2025 8:21 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

You posted a picture as "proof" of your comment?

So lame.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, February 6, 2025 1:08 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
You posted a picture as "proof" of your comment?

So lame.

Like all losers in life, Signym, you have self-defeating ideas about how success is achieved and what constitutes proof. I've got a strong belief from vast experience with losers who clutch to their heart behavior that inevitably ends with defeat that they are incapable of understanding how it's done. I'm not going to try to tell you anything because your mind, Signym, will twist every fact, every helpful hint, any material aid, into uselessness and waste. Wasting life is the Russian way, the Trumptard way, and even the way of a large majority of Ukrainians:

Why is Ukraine struggling to mobilize its citizens to fight?

By Peter Korotaev and Volodymyr Ishchenko | 23 Jan 2025

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2025/1/23/why-is-ukraine-struggling
-to-mobilise-its-citizens-to-fight

The post-Soviet social contract

Like in all post-Soviet and post-communist states, a new social contract emerged in the 1990s that reflected the new sociopolitical realities in Ukraine. State-citizen relations were reduced to the following: the state won’t help you, but in return, the state won’t harm you either.

Meanwhile, politics became animated by the dramatic Maidan revolutions of 2004 and 2014. The opportunities created by these uprisings were repeatedly co-opted by narrow elite groups – oligarchs, the professional middle class, and foreign powers – leaving large portions of Ukrainian society excluded and their interests underrepresented.

Before 2022, this situation was tolerable for many Ukrainians to an extent. The borders were open, so millions were able to emigrate. In 2021, Ukraine occupied the eighth place in the ranking of countries with the most international migrants – more than 600,000 left in that year alone. Remittances from the emigrants helped those who stayed behind maintain an acceptable standard of living.

But in the long term, this path did not seem sustainable. In 2020, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal admitted that the state will struggle to pay state pensions in a decade and a half. After years of declining state capacity and de-development, Ukrainians were unsurprised. The news was received as another indication that one should save up American dollars and try to emigrate.

The war put the already weak social contract to the test. All of a sudden, a state that had hardly been present in Ukrainians’ lives demanded that they sacrifice themselves for its survival.

In the wake of the failure of Russia’s initial invasion plan, the surge of unity fuelled a wave of volunteerism. However, as the war ground on, a stark realisation emerged: the state is distributing the burdens and benefits of the war unequally. While some segments of society gain materially or politically, others bear disproportionate sacrifices, fuelling a growing sense of alienation within a large part of the Ukrainian population.

The state has done little to strengthen its relations with citizens in the face of waning war enthusiasm. Instead, government officials have bombarded the population with messaging about self-reliance.

In September 2023, Minister of Social Policy Oksana Zholnovich called on citizens not to remain dependent on benefits, since this makes them “children”. She proposed a “new social contract” in which citizens accept social spending cuts and live independently as “free swimmers”.

In September 2024, the government announced it was not going to increase the minimum wage and social security payments in 2025 despite inflation reaching 12 percent.

A crisis of motivation

As the third year of the war is about to wrap up, the consequences of this weak social contract are becoming increasingly apparent. The narrative of fighting an existential war no longer seems to move the majority of Ukrainians.

The words of one of our interviewees are quite illuminating. This person fundraises for non-lethal military equipment for the army – but not drones or other weapons, because he believes that “the state completely failed in its most critical role of preventing war”. He told us: “I don’t understand why this war should fully become my war in the truest sense of the word.”

He said he found it hard to be open about his views: “When you want to live as you wish, you only speak openly in close circles. Either you have to let go of all ambitions, part of your identity, or consider emigration because this country will ultimately become completely foreign to you.”

The attitude that this is not “our war” can be seen reflected in polls conducted throughout the past year, in which a silent majority does not seem ready to mobilise to fight.

In an April 2024 poll, only 10 percent of respondents said that most of their relatives were ready to be mobilised. A June survey showed that only 32 percent “fully or partly supported” the new mobilisation law; 52 percent opposed it, and the rest refused to answer.

In a July poll, only 32 percent disagreed with the statement “mobilisation will have no effect other than increased deaths”. A mere 27 percent believed that forced mobilisation was necessary to solve issues at the front line.

According to another July poll, only 29 percent considered it shameful to be a draft dodger.

A consistent pattern can be seen in these surveys: those supporting the continuation or strengthening conscription only constitute about a third of the population; a significant minority evade responding to such questions, reflected in the large number of “hard to say” or “don’t know” answers; and the rest openly reject mobilisation.

These attitudes on conscription may seem at odds with results from “victory” polls. The majority in such surveys still indicate that “victory” for Ukraine should mean reclaiming all territories within its 1991 borders and rejecting any concessions to Russia.

But there is really no contradiction here. It is evident that while most Ukrainians would like to see “total victory”, they are unwilling to sacrifice their lives for this goal and empathise with others who feel the same. That is why the majority also supports a negotiated peace as soon as possible.

The lack of motivation to fight is also apparent in the rates of draft dodging. Per the April mobilisation law, all men eligible for mobilisation were to submit their details to the draft offices by July 17. By the deadline, only 4 million men had done so, while 6 million had not.

And of those who entered their details, various officials have said that from 50 to 70-80 percent had medical or other reasons allowing them to legally avoid mobilisation.

Meanwhile, groups and channels have proliferated on Telegram to alert people to the presence of mobilisation officers in certain areas; they have continued to run despite some members getting arrested.

The mobilisation authorities have launched investigations against 500,000 men for draft evasion so far.

Socioeconomic tension

Draft dodging has not only revealed the scope of the crisis of motivation but also the extent to which the war has massively deepened class divides.

Over the past year, there have been regular news reports of officials accepting massive bribes in exchange for exempting men from military service.

In one case made public in early October, a top medical official who also served on a local council representing the ruling Servant of the People party, amassed a fortune taking bribes to facilitate draft-dodging through disability slips. The local police said it found $6m in cash and released a photo of a family member who had photographed themselves on a bed with piles of dollars.

Less than two weeks later, Ukrainian media reported that nearly all prosecutors in the region where the medical official operated were registered as “disabled”. In the aftermath of the scandal, Zelenskyy sacked some officials and triumphantly abolished the institution responsible for giving out disability slips. Uncomfortable questions about why top officials didn’t notice these corrupt schemes were dismissed.

Those who do not have thousands of dollars to pay for a medical exemption or bribe border police, attempt dangerous journeys at Ukraine’s western borders. As a result, a significant portion of Ukraine’s border patrol is stationed on the “peaceful” western borders.

Since 2022, 45 Ukrainians have drowned in the Tysa River on the border with Romania and Hungary in desperate attempts to flee. There have been multiple cases of Ukrainian men trying to escape the country shot and killed by their own country’s border patrol. In March, a video went viral of a border patrol guard madly shooting into the Tysa to demonstrate what he does to draft dodgers, saying: “$1000 to cross this river isn’t worth it”.

There have been cases of dozens of men attempting to cross the border at a time. Once caught, photographs of these “shameful draft dodgers” have been shared on social media, with the captions often stating that they are being sent to the front.

Thus, those who make it to the front line are usually too poor or too unfortunate to have been caught by draft officers. As parliamentarian Mariana Bezuhla put it in mid-September after visiting the front lines near Pokrovsk, the people there were mainly those who could not “decide things” with a bribe. In a November TV interview, a military commander said that 90 percent of those at the front are “forcibly mobilised villagers”.

Army officers often complain of the low quality of these “busified” troops, the term referring to the minibuses into which draft-age men are dragged off the streets. No wonder there have been hundreds of arson attacks against these vehicles.

The effect of such violent coercion unleashed onto mostly impoverished Ukrainian men is the extremely low morale at the front line. As of November 2024, there were four mobilised soldiers for every volunteer.

Mass desertions by mobilised soldiers have been leading to constant retreats. In recent weeks, reports have surfaced that hundreds of “busified” men in the 155th brigade deserted before they were deployed to stop the advance of the Russians near Pokrovsk.

In a July Facebook post, a mobilised Ukrainian journalist bemoaned the lack of patriotism among his fellow conscripts. He wrote that most of the people he served with were from poor, rural regions and were more interested in discussing government corruption than anything else. His attempts to remind them of their patriotic duty failed to convince them:

“A significant portion of the people openly state: Over my 30-40-50 years, the state hasn’t given anything except a Kalashnikov. Why should I be a patriot?’” he observed.

These soldiers certainly aren’t insufficiently acquainted with the realities of war. They aren’t distant civilians tired of frontline footage on the television. But they have good reasons to be suspicious of patriotic imperatives.

Morale problems are compounded by the abuse recruits suffer during mobilisation and deployment. Each month sees a new case of someone beaten to death in the mobilisation stations. In December, media revelations pointed to systemic torture and extortion within the ranks of the Ukrainian army.

In a September interview with a local media outlet, Ukrainian officer Yusuf Walid claimed that 90 percent of officers treat the mobilised “like animals”.

Walid also said that the generation of those born in the 1980s and ’90s are “hopeless” in terms of their patriotic commitments – all they care about is economic survival. This is hardly surprising, given that the post-Soviet Ukrainian social contract convinced individuals to focus on their own survival rather than asking for “handouts” from the state.

Much more at https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2025/1/23/why-is-ukraine-struggling
-to-mobilise-its-citizens-to-fight

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, February 6, 2025 2:05 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Trump To 'Force' Zelensky To Agree On Ceasefire By Easter According To Alleged Leaked Peace Plan
Thursday, Feb 06, 2025 - 07:20 AM

As of the start of this week, the Kremlin said 'no progress' had been made in arranging peace talks on Ukraine between Moscow and Washington.

So, they say not only no talks, no progress on arranging for talks

Quote:
Rumors and speculation abound, given that US diplomats under Trump are without doubt

Rumors and speculation ...

Quote:
working behind-the-scenes to arrange something, with the possibility that talks could be hosted in a 'neutral' location like Saudi Arabia or the UAE.

A Thursday Daily Mail report has just added immense fuel to the fire of speculation, presenting the allegedly leaked Trump ceasefire plan which he intends to present for Russia's consideration. The report says Trump will try to 'force' Ukraine's President Zelensky to agree to a ceasefire by Easter, which is on April 20 this year.

The Trump administration is seeking to end the war within 100 days. "The unconfirmed plans, reported by Ukrainian outlet Strana, have been doing the rounds in 'political and diplomatic circles' in Ukraine, and will include a ceasefire by April 20 that would freeze Russia's steady advance, a ban on Ukraine from joining NATO, and a demand for Kyiv to accept Russian sovereignty on annexed land."

While still very much unconfirmed, the headline is having an immediate impact on oil prices. Zelensky's office has vehemently denied the legitimacy of reports of the peace plans being reported and floated.

Putin already responded to the article in Strana in an interview wuth Solovyov. As I recall, Russia requires a very methodical process, with all of the details worked out meticulously. Plus, they have no incentive for a ceasefire since they're moving the frontline westward at an increasing rate.

Quote:
On top of these alleged key aspects of a ban on NATO admission, freezing the front lines, and agreeing to Russian sovereignty over the four annexed territories in the east, the leaked report says the following is also included in the proposal:

On top of this, Ukrainian troops will be made to leave Russia's Kursk region, where it launched a counteroffensive in August, while a contingent of European soldiers, which could include British troops, would be asked to police a demilitarised zone.

A deal- killer right there.

Quote:
American troops will not be involved in this contingent.

The EU will reportedly be asked to assist Ukraine in its reconstruction efforts, which may cost as much as $486billion (£392billion) over the next decade according to the German Marshall Fund thinktank.

The plans will reportedly begin with a phone call between Zelensky and Vladimir Putin in early February, a meeting between the two warring leaders in late February to early March and an official ceasefire declaration of a ceasefire by April 20.

A declaration on the agreed parameters for ending the war would then be released by May 9, after which Kyiv would be asked not to extend martial law or mobilize troops.

This essentially gives Moscow most everything it wants - particularly the ban on NATO admission - and so if true the plan is likely to be entertained positively by Putin.

Zelensky has been complaining that talks about Ukraine between the US and Russia must never happen without Kiev's representation and input, but Zelensky it seems is being left behind. He'll likely reject the above 'leaked' plan, but for Moscow and Washington that probably won't matter too much.

Old news. Yves Smith (Naked Capitalism) commented many months ago that the problem with the west is that they spend all their time negotiating with each other, without considering Russia. So while they polish their plans to a brilliant shine, acceptable to everyone amongst them, it's still a turd.

Absent the ceasefire, I'll bet Russia would LOVE to negotiate with Zelensky.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

YOUR OPTIONS

SHARE THREAD

NEW POSTS TODAY

USER	POST DATE
second	02.06 07:13
SIGNYM	02.06 08:21
second	02.06 13:08
SIGNYM	02.06 14:05