REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Friday, May 23, 2025 07:33
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PAGE 168 of 168

Wednesday, May 21, 2025 12:49 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Russian Strike On Ukrainian Training Ground Results In Mass Casualties
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 09:00 AM

Despite ongoing US-backed efforts to get Russians and Ukrainians to the negotiating table again, days after last week's Istanbul talks, both warring sides have on Wednesday ramped up tit-for-tat assaults on each other's territory.

Ukrainian drones have once again threatened the Moscow region, leading to the capital's four airports temporarily suspending nearly all flights for a period on Wednesday.

Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports halted inbound and outbound flights, and Sheremetyevo suspended arrivals, the country's Federal Air Transport Agency confirmed, after air defense missile systems downed three inbound drones on Moscow.
Russian MOD image: Russian ministry of defense video showed the training ground shortly before the missile strike.

"Emergency services are working at the crash sites," an official Moscow city statement said. The Defense Ministry had earlier in the day said it destroyed 159 Ukrainian inbound drones overnight. Drones threatened several regions across southern Russia, as well as at least 40 UAVs spotted over Crimea.

Ukraine on Wednesday announced that six of its servicemen were killed, and at least ten more were wounded when a missile attack struck a training camp in northeast Ukraine's Sumy region the day prior.


However, Russia's defense ministry said the death toll was much higher, according to its intelligence estimates. It indicated the missile attack "killed up to 70 Ukrainian service members, including 20 instructors."

Like many other such mass casualty events of late, it will likely be impossible to confirm which said has the accurate casualty numbers, given 'fog of war' and lack of journalistic access on the ground to many of these sites.

The location was reportedly a shooting range, according to Ukraine's national guard, which further said the commander of the unit had been suspended. The strike happened during the light of day.

Russia's MoD released a grim video which strongly suggests true casualty numbers are actually very high after the attack:
https://x.com/HavryshkoMarta/status/1924989853105615187?ref_src=twsrc%
5Etfw


Ukraine's military leadership has in some regions had a ban in place of large gatherings of troops or training which takes place out in the open, given the ever-present danger of missile and drone attacks from Russia. Reuters notes that "During more than three years of Russia's full-scale invasion, Moscow's forces have inflicted casualties in attacks on Ukrainian military educational institutions and various formal outdoor gatherings.

This large-scale attack on the training ground comes at a time of increased domestic division and infighting within Ukraine, including apparently within the military command.

For example, one high-ranking commander has within the past week reportedly resigned in disgust:

Oleksandr Shyrshyn, battalion commander of the 47 Separate Mechanized Brigade, has submitted his resignation, sharply criticizing Ukraine’s military leadership for what he described as senseless orders and unnecessary casualties.

"I have never received more stupid objectives than in the current direction," Shyrshyn wrote in a blunt Facebook post announcing his decision on May 16. "Someday I will tell you the details, but the stupid loss of people, trembling in front of a stupid generals, leads to nothing but failures."

"I hope your children will also serve in the infantry and carry out your orders," he added.



This is probably why Kiev authorities are taking such pains to investigate the Sumy training ground attack. The Zelensky government is trying to assure the population that it's war policy is not "senseless" - also at a time recruiters continue brutally rounding up fresh recruits, in some instances from off the streets or from inside cafes and restaurants.

This war of attrition is becoming increasingly unpopular among Ukrainians, and is certainly being met with 'war weariness' among Western populations, whose tax dollars have been propping up the Ukrainian war machine. This is also why President Trump has been urging both sides to end the "bloodbath" and senseless killing.



https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-strike-ukrainian-traini
ng-ground-results-mass-casualties


-----------
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Wednesday, May 21, 2025 1:58 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

When I look at the original information, translated into English, Medvedev did claim yesterday that Russia needs to consult Ukraine’s Constitution to identify who to negotiate with because, at the moment, there is nobody to negotiate with.


Zelensky issued a decree making it ILLEGAL to negotiate with Russia as long as Putin is in power.

That decree has not been rescinded.

Altho Russia is negotiating with Ukraine, Russia runs the risk of having any negotiated agreement declared illegal by Ukraine bc their negotiators don't have legal authority to negotiate.

In addition, Zelensky has outstayed his term of office. I posted links to, and relevant parts of, the Ukrainian Constitution, and it doesn't allow for extending the President's term of office for ANY reason, so who can legally sign an agreement? I presume the head of the Rada.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


This BTW is exactly what Medevedev said, translated

Quote:

St. Petersburg, May 20 - RIA Novosti. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev called the lack of persons authorized to conclude a peace treaty in Ukraine a big problem. "It has been said more than once that among the main set of actors of the Ukrainian regime there are no persons who are authorized to conclude a peace treaty. And this is a big problem," Medvedev said at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum. The XIII St. Petersburg International Legal Forum is being held from May 19 to 21 in St. Petersburg. RIA Novosti is the general media partner of SPBILF 2025.




-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Thursday, May 22, 2025 6:41 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Zelensky issued a decree making it ILLEGAL to negotiate with Russia as long as Putin is in power.

That decree has not been rescinded.

While it's a common misconception, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did not issue a decree that explicitly makes it illegal for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia as long as Vladimir Putin is in power.

https://www.google.com/search?q=Zelensky+issued+a+decree+making+it+ILL
EGAL+to+negotiate+with+Russia+as+long+as+Putin+is+in+power
.+

Signym, you are ridiculous. So are the Russians. That is why you and they struggle so mightily against, in the final analysis, problems that normal people easily avoid.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, May 22, 2025 6:43 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian milbloggers argued that Russia needs to form private military companies (PMCs) like the Wagner Group to retain Russian officers and professional servicemen in military service.[37] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russia's war in Ukraine showed that the Russian military is "sluggish" and is incapable of quickly responding to the changes in combat tactics. The milblogger claimed that the number of disillusioned professional servicemen is increasing in all Russian security agencies and argued that the Kremlin should form special purpose detachments with officers and combat-experienced men outside of the Russian Armed Forces structure. The milblogger argued that the Kremlin should allow these detachments to elect their leaders. The milblogger acknowledged that Russia has significant problems with interdepartmental communication and claimed that Russia needs to form mobile units with advanced combat and technological experience. The milblogger argued that the Kremlin must allow these units the highest level of independence to ensure that these units are attractive to Russian professional servicemen and officers, who are increasingly disillusioned with the military bureaucracy. The Kremlin is unlikely to recreate PMCs with a high level of independence because it had launched a vast force centralization campaign in late 2022 and early 2023 to eradicate the regime threat posed by the increasing independence and influence of the Wagner Group.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-force-generation
-and-technological-adaptations-update-may-21-2025


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, May 22, 2025 8:08 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


‘Take the commander and kill everyone else’: Listen to intercepted Russian radio transmissions

Intercepted Russian radio chatter obtained by CNN appears to correspond with drone footage showing the suspected execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war last year. The killing of surrendering Ukrainian troops is alleged by Kyiv and international experts to be part of an orchestrated Russian policy. CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh reports.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/take-the-commander-and-kill-every
one-else-listen-to-intercepted-russian-radio-transmissions/vi-AA1FgjfZ


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, May 22, 2025 2:02 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Zelensky issued a decree making it ILLEGAL to negotiate with Russia as long as Putin is in power.

That decree has not been rescinded.

While it's a common misconception, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did not issue a decree that explicitly makes it illegal for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia as long as Vladimir Putin is in power.

https://www.google.com/search?q=Zelensky+issued+a+decree+making+it+ILL
EGAL+to+negotiate+with+Russia+as+long+as+Putin+is+in+power
.+

Signym, you are ridiculous. So are the Russians. That is why you and they struggle so mightily against, in the final analysis, problems that normal people easily avoid.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

SECOND, you have a tactic of twisting a snippet or word out of context.
So I found an image of the ENTIRE decree on X, in Ukrainian, and its a page long. Haven't been able to get it translated, but here is Zelensky's rationale for the decree:


Quote:

According to the President, the document allowed to cut off all communication channels that the Kremlin was trying to establish through various politicians.

Zelenskyy emphasized that the decision had brought results, which is why dictator Vladimir Putin is so concerned about the decree. The president said this at a joint press conference with Moldovan President Maia Sandu.

The Guarantor noted that the Kremlin leader tried to put pressure on Ukraine through various agents and separatists. To stop these backroom negotiations, the National Security and Defense Council issued a corresponding decision.

"The decision of the National Security and Defense Council, why I signed this decree, is because Putin began to quickly build a large number of agents, together with separatists, together with representatives of other states, to influence Ukraine, our independence, and me directly. Many negotiations, shadowy ones, in the corridor, I stopped it quickly, I just stopped separatism in our country,"
Zelenskyy said.

The President also explained that Russia tried to exert pressure through MPs and even representatives of the EU and the US. A decision was made to take control of this process.

"They exerted pressure through the deputy corps of citizens of our country and the Euro deputy corps of our colleagues and the United States. There were many negotiation platforms. I just realized that we and our respective authorities could not control it. So I made an absolutely fair decision. I am the president of Ukraine,[is he?] I am the leader of certain negotiations, and I have banned everyone else, " the president explained.

The President hinted that one of those with whom Putin tried to establish contact was former MP Viktor Medvedchuk, who was later arrested and exchanged for Ukrainian soldiers. Moreover, the Kremlin tried to negotiate through representatives of certain institutions.

"I understand that Putin does not like this because he has many channels, there are channels that everyone knows about, because the relevant people were arrested, and then we exchanged them for our military. They also used other channels, even in some of our institutions, which I am not yet ready to talk about publicly," the head of state emphasized.
<MEDIA>@https://cdn.membrana.video

As a reminder, on January 24, dictator Vladimir Putin made a number of statements through Russian propaganda media about the Kremlin's alleged readiness to "negotiate on the Ukrainian issue." At the same time, he accused Ukraine of being unwilling to sit down at the negotiating table and hinted that he and US President Donald Trump should decide Ukraine's fate.

Earlier, the head of the OP, Andrii Yermak, said that the dictator is trying to promote the idea of negotiations with the United States on Ukraine but without Ukraine's participation. But this does not work in the modern world.



https://eng.obozrevatel.com/section-war/news-zelenskyy-explains-why-a-
decree-banning-negotiations-with-russia-was-issued-at-the-beginning-of-a-full-scale-war-video-25-01-2025.html




-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Thursday, May 22, 2025 2:15 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Fuck Ukraine.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Thursday, May 22, 2025 5:42 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

SECOND, you have a tactic of twisting a snippet or word out of context.
So I found an image of the ENTIRE decree on X, in Ukrainian, and its a page long. Haven't been able to get it translated, but here is Zelensky's rationale for the decree:

Don't ask Russians. Ask the man who wrote the decree about what it means. He will tell you:

Didn't Zelensky impose a ban on talks with Putin? Not really

by Kateryna Denisova May 12, 2025 11:03 PM

https://kyivindependent.com/didnt-zelensky-impose-a-ban-on-talks-with-
putin-not-really
/

Moscow has cited Zelensky's decree as a ban on talks with Putin and used it as an excuse for avoiding direct talks with Kyiv.

At the beginning of the full-scale war, Russia sought to negotiate with a peculiar assortment of Ukrainian politicians. Without specifying names, the president of Ukraine said that those involved in the behind-the-scenes efforts were later arrested and exchanged for Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs). Presumably, Zelensky referred to Viktor Medvedchuk, the pro-Kremlin politician who was arrested and sent to Russia amid a prisoner swap in September 2022.

The president of Ukraine did NOT allegedly forbid himself from communicating with Putin. That would be illogical. The president of Ukraine forbade various Ukrainian traitors from negotiating with Russia.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, May 22, 2025 5:48 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Serial child rapist Zelensky is the only traitor in Ukraine.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Thursday, May 22, 2025 8:47 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Serial child rapist Zelensky is the only traitor in Ukraine.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

I'm pretty sure, just going on experience with a few thousand Trumptards, that they are tax cheaters, rapists, liars, and thieves, by which I mean they should not be trusted with any kind of responsibility, whether contractual, marital, or professional. That's probably why Trumptards' lives are difficult. Other Americans notice how irresponsible Trump and his Trumptards are and that has high costs for the Trumptards.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, May 22, 2025 9:02 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

SECOND, you have a tactic of twisting a snippet or word out of context.
So I found an image of the ENTIRE decree on X, in Ukrainian, and its a page long. Haven't been able to get it translated, but here is Zelensky's rationale for the decree:

Don't ask Russians.

Those were quotes from Zelensky.
Is Zelensky Russian?
No.
Idiot.


Quote:

Ask the man who wrote the decree about what it means. He will tell you


And this is what the article really says ...

Quote:

In the fall of 2022, Zelensky signed a decree that "stated the impossibility of holding negotiations with Russian President Putin,"
"He (Putin) does not know what dignity and honesty are. We are ready for a dialogue with Russia, but with a different president of Russia," Zelensky said at the time.



Rule of thumb in rhetoric: "But" negates what came before. So, basically Ukraine was NOT ready to negotiate with Putin.
To continue ...

Quote:

Didn't Zelensky impose a ban on talks with Putin?
Well, yes. Yes, he did.

Quote:

According to a source [who?] in Ukraine's president's office, the decree was a "signal to those in Ukraine who wanted to speak (to Russians) bypassing the central government."

"Back then we stated the impossibility, now we can state the possibility, the president as the head of state determines this," the source added. "There is no ban as such, the Russians twisted it."

At the beginning of the full-scale war, Russia sought to negotiate with a peculiar assortment of Ukrainian politicians. Without specifying names, the president of Ukraine said that those involved in the behind-the-scenes efforts were later arrested and exchanged for Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs). Presumably, Zelensky referred to Viktor Medvedchuk, the pro-Kremlin politician who was arrested and sent to Russia amid a prisoner swap in September 2022.

The president of Ukraine did NOT allegedly forbid himself from communicating with Putin. [He just forbade other people from communicating with Putin. Note: Ukrainian source just inadvertently confirmed that there WAS a "ban", since communication was "forbidden".] That would be illogical. The president of Ukraine forbade various Ukrainian traitors from negotiating with Russia.

Ukrainian lawmaker and chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, Oleksandr Merezhko, told the Kyiv Independent that the problem lies in the interpretation of the decree.

"This has given rise to false interpretations. The fact that the president allegedly forbade himself from communicating with Putin. No, that's illogical," he said.

According to Ukraine's constitution, the president represents the state in international relations, manages foreign policy, and negotiates and concludes international treaties on behalf of Ukraine.

"The constitution is always above a presidential decree," Merezhko said. "The constitution clearly says that he (the president) negotiates. That is, he decides with whom to negotiate, when to negotiate, and in what format," he added.

IS Zelensky President? Not according to their Constitution. So they're in a curious situation where he was President when issuing the decree, but may not have the power to rescind or modify it.

Quote:

"The decree was aimed at preventing attempts and prohibiting others from conducting any negotiations with Putin."


The reality is that the decree was meant to prevent deals from being made by some Ukrainian officials (MPs, military officers, governors, mmayors etc) with Russia. Since it would be highly unlikely that Putin himself would negotiate with a mayor, negotiations would have to be banned between Ukrainian at any level and Russians at any level. (Unless Ukrainians have Putin Derangement Syndrome, and imagine that Putin is everywhere doing everything by himself.)

So, back then nobody could negotiate with Putin, or with Russia. NOW Zelensky can. Says Zelensky.
But Zelensky wasn't negotiating with Putin, was he?

They're just twisting the meaning of the decree to suit whatever Zelensky feels like that day.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Thursday, May 22, 2025 9:54 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Serial child rapist Zelensky is the only traitor in Ukraine.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

I'm pretty sure, just going on experience with a few thousand Trumptards, that they are tax cheaters, rapists, liars, and thieves, by which I mean they should not be trusted with any kind of responsibility, whether contractual, marital, or professional. That's probably why Trumptards' lives are difficult. Other Americans notice how irresponsible Trump and his Trumptards are and that has high costs for the Trumptards.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two



We all remember when you told us thousands of times that Democrats never get sick or die.

Chances are very good that you have no idea what a woman is too.

We don't have any faith in your judgement of anybody or any situation.



--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Thursday, May 22, 2025 10:04 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.




-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Friday, May 23, 2025 7:27 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Arms Race in Ukraine

New drone technology is transforming the battlefield in Ukraine—and demonstrating the obsolescence of much Western weaponry.

By Tim Judah | June 12, 2025 issue

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2025/06/12/arms-race-in-ukraine-tim-j
udah
/

As I was waiting outside Kyiv’s main military hospital at the end of April, I saw a man in a wheelchair come out of the main gate. He wove gingerly past seven “hedgehogs”—the large metal antitank traps that were deployed across the capital’s streets at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Now they have almost all been cleared away. Soldiers were walking out of the gate carrying bags of medicine and large flat folders with their X-rays, while visitors were checking in.

Amid this morning rush the man wheeled himself to the end of the short, blocked road leading to the street. There he lit a cigarette and watched the world go by. He was wearing a T-shirt in the yellow and pale blue Ukrainian colors. One of his legs had been amputated below the knee, and the other one was gone entirely. Both stumps were still bound with dressings. Maybe he suffered from phantom limb pain. In a few weeks perhaps he will be out of the wheelchair, learning to walk again on prosthetic legs.

The man was almost certainly one of the 380,000 Ukrainians who President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February had been wounded in this war. A few days earlier I had been in a bunker talking to a Ukrainian commander. We were watching live drone feeds from the front line when he showed me a grainy one zooming in on a wounded Russian solider. “See, he has lost his leg,” he said. “So, are you going to finish him off?” I asked naively. “No, no!” he replied. A badly wounded soldier was worse for Russia than a dead one, he explained. First he would endanger the lives of any men who tried to rescue him, who would be diverted from holding their positions, and finally he would need long-term care, rehabilitation, and a pension, just like the man at the Kyiv hospital. The next day I met a senior Ukrainian security official who told me something that he would never say in public. We were talking about the war and how it had consolidated Ukrainian identity for many for whom being Russian or Ukrainian had not mattered much before. He said that the Russians saw themselves as the heirs of the Imperial and Soviet legacies, but that Ukrainians were too. Then he told me, “I will tell you something very strange: we are twins!”

Like the legless man smoking his cigarette, all Ukrainians are wondering what the future holds for them. They have lost a fifth of their country to the Russians, and for now there is no prospect of getting any of it back. They feel the phantom pain of the loss of homes and families and memories, not to mention businesses and resources, in the Russian-occupied territories in the east and south. But while soldiers and civilians continue to die every day, the country, just like that man, is still very much alive.

This spring, as President Donald Trump tried to secure a cease-fire in a war that he once boasted would be so easy to end that he could do it in twenty-four hours, Ukrainians were left bewildered by his mood swings and the parroting of Kremlin propaganda about Ukraine by him and his team. One minute US officials were pouring bile on Zelensky and accusing him of being responsible for President Vladimir Putin’s invasion, and the next Trump was grumbling about Putin’s “very bad timing” in killing thirteen civilians with a missile strike on Kyiv the night of April 24. He did not venture how the timing for these strikes could be improved.

When Zelensky asked to buy more Patriot missiles, which are crucial for defending Ukraine’s cities from long-range Russian drones and missiles, Trump mocked him. The assumption in Kyiv had been that whether a cease-fire happened or not, the US would no longer provide weapons and crucial intelligence to Ukraine. Then, on April 30, Kyiv and Washington signed a deal giving the US preferential treatment in future exploitation of Ukrainian minerals—something that may never happen. Trump’s argument is that an “American presence at the excavation site will help protect the country.” But since the deal comes with no security guarantees, no major company will invest before Ukraine is actually secure.

A Ukrainian business source described the deal as a “performative political act,” because it gave Trump something to present as a success to MAGA true believers. If it kept Trump happy, that was fine with him. At the beginning of May, Trump began selling weapons to Ukraine again, and it was reported that an extra Patriot missile battery was being transferred. All this was a big surprise. Russian commentators began to wonder if Trump, who they had been crowing was their man in the White House, was not going to deliver for them after all.

I like going to see the security official because, in the decade that I have known him, he has always had a clear-eyed perspective on what the future holds. Now he told me, “It is easier to predict what Ukraine will look like in ten years rather than in ten days!” Indeed, for days before this article went to press, everyone was wondering whether Putin would turn up for peace talks with Zelensky in Istanbul on May 15. He did not.

In Pobuzke, a three hours’ drive south of Kyiv, you can visit the Strategic Missile Forces Museum. On a gray and drizzly April day it can be hard to muster much enthusiasm for rusting old Soviet warplanes with dead wasps crushed against their cockpit windows or parking lots full of shattered Russian armor from this war. But those things are not really why people come here. In the Soviet period about one third of the USSR’s intercontinental ballistic missiles were based in Ukraine. As you enter the bunker, Yurii, the sixty-seven-year-old guide, who served in Soviet forces nearby, flicks a switch to turn on the air-conditioning. Then you squeeze into a tiny elevator with him and finally clamber down a ladder into the tiny control room from which the ICBMs in silos in this part of Ukraine would have been launched. There are bunks, a toilet, a samovar, a teapot, teacups, and an electric hot plate for one saucepan. Six men could have survived Armageddon in this complex for forty-five days.

Everything is perfectly preserved, and Yurii reels off numbers about missiles and payloads. You sit behind a desk with switches and buttons: Yurii explains that once orders to launch came through from Moscow, two people in that room would both have had to press a button, which my colleague and I were invited to do. On a screen we watched missiles being fired, circling the planet and destroying cities.

In 1994 the US helped Ukraine get rid of its nuclear missiles. All of its eighteen command centers, except this one, which was preserved as a museum, were destroyed. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the missiles in Ukraine could not have been launched by its government, because the command-and-control systems remained in Moscow. While those could have been recreated in Ukraine, it would have taken years and a lot of money. The ICBMs were sent to Russia, and in return the US, Russia, and Britain signed the Budapest Memorandum, which committed them to the territorial integrity of Ukraine. They agreed that they would seek UN Security Council action to help Ukraine should it “become a victim of an act of aggression.” Perhaps at the time the idea that Russia might attempt to conquer and annex parts of its neighbor was considered so outlandish that the absurdity of going to the Security Council, where Russia has a veto, never seemed important. It would be as futile as asking it to act if the US tried to use force to annex Canada or Greenland.

Back aboveground I asked Yurii if he thought it had been a mistake for Ukraine to give up its missiles. Would Russia have dared to seize Crimea in 2014 and then tried to destroy Ukraine as a state if it still had them? Yes, he said, the fact that Ukraine had voluntarily given up the missiles “makes me a little depressed.” More to the point, as the demilitarization of Ukraine is now one of Putin’s main demands, along with its giving up all those areas of the four provinces in the east and south that Russia claims to have annexed but has not yet occupied, the Budapest Memorandum and the nuclear disarmament of the 1990s cast a dark shadow.

The lessons that most Ukrainians draw from this are that allies cannot be relied upon, that Russia, under Putin and probably under his successors too, will never give up the desire to subjugate their country, and that their country needs to be armed to the teeth to defend itself. But how to accomplish this? Without negotiating, Trump has already acceded to Putin’s demand that Ukraine never join NATO, and he says that the Ukrainians have no cards to play. He is wrong about that. They may not have as strong a hand as the Russians right now, but they still have plenty of cards, and they plan on having a lot more.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine’s formidable military industries went into a steep decline. Now Ukrainian missiles are striking Russian military and oil industry targets deep inside the country. Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2014 and especially since 2022, Ukraine’s military industry has risen like a phoenix, and if there were more money, it could produce even more weapons. In 2024, according to Herman Smetanin, the Ukrainian minister of strategic industries, the country’s military production was $35 billion—thirty-five times more than in 2022.

In the autumn of 2022 Ukrainian forces routed the Russians and chased them out of much of the territory they had occupied after the initial February assault. That November the Russians were forced to retreat from the city of Kherson, which lies on the banks of the mighty Dnieper River. I wrote about the jubilation there a few days later. Crowds thronged its central Freedom Square, and Zelensky came to deliver a triumphant address. It is all very different today. The Russians pulled back across the river, and while they continue to shell the city, it is above all a drone war here.

Artem, a Ukrainian soldier, drove me through the city’s almost deserted streets. Close to the river we skirted a district that has become too dangerous for anyone to live in. When we passed Freedom Square the only person there was a lone pensioner with a shopping bag. Under the trees of an empty boulevard a woman was putting out food for birds or cats. In a nearby village, in a school basement that has now been converted into classrooms, Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of the region’s military administration, described the battle for Kherson as “Star Wars.” Both sides are testing their latest drones. Artem said that an “electronic curtain” had been erected along this part of the river for the jamming and spoofing of drones. When a drone is jammed it can be downed or is simply lost. Spoofing means that the enemy can change the drone’s home base and then divert it “home” to its destruction. As we talked, he showed me a live feed on his phone from a hacked Russian drone that was somewhere nearby. In theory, he said, this meant you could watch it fly toward you and kill you.

In February 2022 the Ukrainians had virtually no military drones. Last year they made 2.2 million, and this year they hope to make 4.5 million. The majority of these are “first-person view” (FPV) drones, which means that the operator wears goggles or controls them from a screen. Ukrainian forces, says Yevhen Hlibovytsky, the head of the Frontier Institute think tank, have been faced with recruitment problems, and this has forced the country “to turn to technology to compensate for that deficit.” The speed with which drones have emerged as the leading weapon of the war is a direct result of manpower shortages and having a homegrown industrial capacity to make them.

But jamming, accidents, and the lack of skilled pilots mean that two thirds or more of Ukrainian and probably Russian FPV and other drones don’t hit their target. The arms race is moving so fast, though, that things are already changing in reaction to these problems. Some 70 percent of battlefield casualties are now reported to be caused by drones. The new generation of drones is controlled by a fiber-optic filament up to fifteen kilometers long—akin to a fishing line—so they have no radio signal to jam. They also give the pilot a higher-quality picture. But even if fiber-optic drones dominate the battlefield by the end of summer, they are only a short-term solution.

So now the race is on for lasers to blind enemy drones and AI to make Ukrainian ones autonomous. When I first met Yaroslav Azhnyuk more than two years ago, he told me about Petcube, a successful company he had set up in 2012. It allowed you to watch onscreen as your dog jumped to grab a treat you had just launched remotely from a dispenser. I guess it is a logical progression from flying dog biscuits to flying drones. The Fourth Law, Azhnyuk’s new company, is working on drone autonomy, including, he said,

autonomous bombing missions, autonomous target recognition, and autonomous navigation towards a kill zone.

That is an area clear of your own troops and civilians and deadly for your enemy. What he foresees is that “in the end there will be operators operating maybe thousands of drones each.” Autonomous drones will transform the battlefield just as FPV drones have.

Ukraine has been testing laser weapons, and kill zones are already very much with us. Line of Drones is a program that aims to make it almost impossible for the Russians to move in a belt of up to fifteen kilometers along the front line. Ivan, a soldier I met whose unit has been fighting in Toretsk, gave me a graphic example of what it meant when they were in the kill zone and could not move. Two weeks earlier Ukrainian troops here had had to give ground, but five soldiers had found themselves marooned under the rubble of a house two and a half kilometers beyond the new front line and seventy meters from a new Russian position. The men were disoriented, injured, and asking to be rescued. Ukrainian drones were dropping them food and batteries and bombing the Russian position, but otherwise there was no way anyone could cross that stretch of land to rescue them.

While it is easy to drop small amounts of provisions to a position like this, logistics are becoming ever harder. Kamikaze drones can land and wait by a road, and when a surveillance drone spots a target such as a vehicle, they can take off and ambush it. Illia was a soldier, but now he is an engineer working with SkyLab, a company that has pivoted from making large bomb-dropping drones to smaller land drones. These are little unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) that can transport cargo across a kill zone. Earlier in the war you could load up a car or armored vehicle with ammunition and drive it to the front, but drones have made that too dangerous. One of the reasons that in March the Russians were able to drive Ukrainian forces out of the part of Russia’s Kursk region that they had occupied was that fiber-optic drones had given them the edge.

Illia and Yevhenii Rvachov, the head of SkyLab, took me to some rough ground outside Kyiv, unloaded one of their meter-long UGVs, and sent it trundling off into the distance. This one had a mount into which they had slotted four land mines, which it proceeded to lay. When it came back, they took off the mount. Now it was ready to transport two hundred kilograms of ammunition or anything else. They said they thought there might be two thousand land drones currently at the front, but by the end of the year there could be tens of thousands. I remarked that these could become the equivalent of the donkeys of wars past, and they showed me a video of Russian troops using donkeys today. A drone does not need to be fed, they remarked, just charged for two hours. They were now working on AI for the next generation of UGVs, which will come with six lidar sensors to help them navigate around obstacles. The beauty of these land drones is that, being so small, they are hard to spot from the air, and they move so fast that they are hard to hit. If they are destroyed, however, no lives are lost, and they only cost the equivalent of a cheap car.

Olena, who runs military evacuation units for the wounded, told me that they were testing larger UGVs to extract injured men from the front. Surely they would be visible and liable to be targeted? I asked. True, she replied, but if someone would quickly bleed to death without being rapidly extracted, it was a gamble worth taking.

In Kyiv there is a sense of extreme excitement about all of these “miltech” developments. I met SkyLab’s people at a conference organized by Brave1, a government platform that connects start-ups and developers with the military. A few days later an event organized by an NGO called Invest in Bravery was packed with investors, inventors, and entrepreneurs. In speeches they emphasized that Ukraine, with more than a million men under arms, now had the largest, most experienced army in Europe (apart from Russia, of course), and people clapped when it was pointed out that Western countries needed Ukraine more than Ukraine needed them. On the face of it this is somewhat bizarre, since the country does not produce enough equipment itself to survive, but the point is this: the war has shown that much expensive hardware in Western armories is becoming obsolete. What matters now, apart from tech, is experience. Since the full-scale invasion began, Western armies have trained tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops abroad. But, say Ukrainians, much of their instructors’ experience has been, as Olena put it pointedly, “fighting men in mountains with Kalashnikovs.” Lessons learned in Afghanistan or Iraq don’t help much here. That message may be starting to get through. In late April it was reported that British troops were now being trained in drone warfare by Ukrainian soldiers.

Let’s not get too carried away by tech, though. It is vital, it has changed warfare, and it has helped the Ukrainians hold back the Russians. But the issue is not whether you should forgo a $4 million Patriot missile and buy 10,000 FPV drones instead, but about finding the right mix of weaponry. It is also important not to lose sight of the human cost of the war. I was at the military hospital in Kyiv because I was waiting for Anastasiia Savova, a twenty-six-year-old who runs Always Faithful, an organization campaigning for naval POWs held by the Russians. Her father had been captured in May 2022 when Azovstal, the sprawling steel plant that served as the last Ukrainian redoubt in Mariupol, was taken. For two years she had had no news of him and did not know if he was even alive. On March 19 he had been included in a prisoner exchange, and she was bringing me to meet him.

Before we met, she sent me pictures of him on WhatsApp. Oleksandr Savov, forty-six, had come home gaunt and sick with tuberculosis. When I first saw him in person I did not recognize him, because in the six weeks since he had been released he had put on so much weight. As a prisoner, he said, he had thought about only two things: food and sleep. The POWs had been constantly beaten, and as a result he was always in pain. Physically he was recovering, but psychologically it was going to take a lot longer. The morning we met he said he had dreamed that he was sitting in the prison barracks wearing a military uniform and medals and a colleague said to him, “Take them off! If the Russians see you, they will beat all of us!” Rape had been frequent. The Russians assaulted the prisoners with soldering irons and caulking guns, the type used to squeeze silicone around the edge of a shower to seal it. “They will be our enemies forever,” he said. Was he in favor of a cease-fire? I asked. If Russia did not hand back the territory it had occupied, he said, “I think we should fight. There is no way back.”

Many, and maybe most, don’t agree with him. Russification of the occupied regions and the exodus of pro-Ukrainian residents from them means that they are “a different country already,” said a businessman who did not want to be identified. It was “best to be honest” and “forget about them.” In that case the rest of Ukraine would have a better chance of recovering and integrating with the rest of Europe. “Otherwise I don’t even see a chance.” He too, however, rejected legal recognition of Russian annexation, which would be politically unacceptable to Ukraine. A leaked draft of a US cease-fire plan suggested that the US would recognize Putin’s annexation of Crimea, which would be regarded as a stab in the back by most Europeans and a kind of 1938 Sudetenland 2.0. In 1940 the Soviet Union annexed the Baltic states, and the US never officially recognized this.

Soldiers told me that the lack of manpower meant they were not rotated for rest and recreation as they should be, and while Putin still wanted to crush Ukraine, a truce would save lives. Olena, who runs the evacuation units, thinks that too many people have already tuned out of the war and that a cease-fire would lead to demobilization and make the country complacent and vulnerable to attack again. A cease-fire would mean a return to the kind of frozen conflict that existed between 2015 and 2022, and the Russians would only wait for the day when they were ready to try to take more of the country.

Things may change, but no Ukrainians I met believed Putin even wanted a cease-fire. “It is not going to happen,” said Hlibovytsky, the head of the Frontier Institute.

They think they have the upper hand. They might try some tactical moves like a three-day cease-fire or whatever just to get some sanctions lifted, but otherwise there is no change of heart. There is no disillusionment in Russian imperial thinking.

According to the political analyst Andrii Buzarov, if there is a cease-fire and normal political life returns to Ukraine, the conflict will not be over. Disinformation and propaganda would be used to divide society, he says.
Today, unlike in the past, there is no viable “pro-Russian” option, but Russian soft power in the country is not only about language and issues of religion that divide the Orthodox faithful. “It is also about history and heroes,” he says. The Russians will work on destabilizing a traumatized society in which people will rapidly be blamed for what they did or didn’t do during the war. They will also use issues such as gay rights to paint the West as degenerate. If Trump is seen to have definitively betrayed Ukraine, which is already the widespread view, and Europe can’t or won’t do enough to take up the slack, then the question will be, “So, what did the West give you, what do you have?”

In the taxi on my way to the station to catch the night train leaving Kyiv for Poland I chatted with Andrii, my driver. He said that he was sixty years old, that “the war will last for the rest of my life,” and that just as, in his view, Arabs had wanted to destroy Israel for eighty years, although conflict had ebbed and flowed, Russia wanted to destroy Ukraine. Then he told me that his day job was as an astrologer and that business was very good because people want to know what the future holds.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, May 23, 2025 7:33 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


A Funny Thing Happened: We Are Still Married Because The Divorce Papers Were Not Properly Signed

Russian authorities are renewing their years-long narrative rejecting the legality of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, possibly to deny Ukrainian and Belarusian sovereignty and independence in the future. Russian State Duma Committee on the Protection of the Family, Fatherhood, Motherhood, and Childhood Head and member of the Communist Party Central Committee Nina Ostanina stated on May 22 that Duma deputies are ready to raise the issue of the alleged illegality of the dissolution of the Soviet Union.[14] Ostanina agreed with Russian Presidential Advisor Anton Kobyakov's May 21 claim that the Soviet Union's founding body was not involved in the dissolution of the Soviet Union and that, therefore, the Soviet Union still legally exists.[15] Ostanina further claimed that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was illegal because "no one gave authority" to then Belarusian Parliament Chairperson Stanislav Shushkevich, then Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic President Boris Yeltsin, and then Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk to sign the December 1991 Belovezha Accords, the internationally recognized document in which the Soviet republics of Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus agreed to dissolve the Soviet Union.[16] Russian authorities have intermittently revived false narratives about the illegality of the Soviet Union's dissolution and calls to reestablish the Soviet Union since at least 2014, and promoted this informational effort in 2021 and 2023.[17] The Kremlin has been pursuing its strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus through the framework of the Union State of Russia and Belarus and consistently denies Ukrainian sovereignty.[18] Russian officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin, have frequently invoked the "trinity doctrine" — the ideological concept suggesting that Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians are a "triune" and forcibly separated people.[19] The Kremlin may be instructing lower-level officials to reinject the narrative about the allegedly illegal dissolution of the Soviet Union into the Russian information space in order to set conditions for the Kremlin to withdraw its recognition of Ukraine and Belarus as independent states in the future and call for a united Russian, Belarusian, and Ukrainian state. Russian officials have notably not acted upon past calls for the reestablishment of the Soviet Union, and the most recent iteration of this information campaign is similarly unlikely to have any near-term effects.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-may-22-2025


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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