Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Sunday, June 1, 2025 18:22
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Saturday, May 31, 2025 6:46 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

What Germany’s support for Ukraine’s missiles really means

By Demian Shevko | May 30, 2025, 07:20 AM

https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/russia-relocates-strategic-bombers-t
o-olenya-amid-fear-of-ukrainian-strikes-50518239.html

Q: Are you encouraged by Germany’s recent announcement that it will invest in Ukrainian long-range weapons production?

— Germany is applying the Danish model: "We give you the money, and you develop and produce the weapons yourselves."

To be honest, that’s better than endless talk about the Taurus missiles—how they’re "on the table," but not quite yet, the stars haven't aligned. Better just to hand over the funds.

In the long run, this is the more effective approach. The number of Taurus missiles available is limited, and transferring them remains questionable due to supply constraints.

I think we should lobby Germany for joint development of long-range weapons. It would be faster and cheaper for them to co-develop and procure from Ukraine than from other European firms.

Q: Is there precedent for such cooperation?

— Germany is a founding member of the ELSA program, which includes Italy, France, the UK, Poland, and the Netherlands. Its goal is to develop long-range missiles capable of reaching Moscow from within the EU—over 1,000 kilometers.

They signed that agreement last summer. Since then, nothing has changed. It remains just a memorandum.

Germany is also looking into buying Tomahawks and developing a 2,000-kilometer-range missile with the UK. France isn’t even invited to that. They haven’t managed to convince any EU country to buy their land-based naval missile variant.

So amid all this empty talk in Europe, we should push for joint development with Ukraine. It would be quicker, cheaper, and more effective.

Of course, that would run up against the lobbying power of giants like MBDA, the European missile consortium. But it’s still worth advocating.

Q: So what kind of weapon would Ukraine need to hit Olenya Airbase? Missiles? Drones? How heavy would the warhead have to be?

— Olenya is roughly 2,000 kilometers away—1900 km as the crow flies, but actual flight distance is longer.

Let’s say we use a cruise missile flying a zigzag route to avoid air defense. If you look at the map, launching from Kyiv would require bypassing Belarus and ideally Saint Petersburg too. You’d need to route through the White Sea area to reach the target.

That could mean a real flight distance of 2,500 to 3,000 km. A Tomahawk only flies 1,600 km.

So if I could hypothetically shop for missiles, I’d go for a ballistic missile with a cluster warhead weighing between 500 kg and a ton. That’s the only conventional weapon that could realistically do the job over that range.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, May 31, 2025 6:48 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Putin is blowing a golden opportunity to escape his Ukraine disaster

By David Ignatius | May 30, 2025

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/05/30/putin-trump-ukraine
-peace-deal-opportunity/

Russians have an expression that translates in colloquial English as “we blew it.” That’s an accurate summary of President Vladimir Putin’s failure so far to seize the diplomatic opportunity presented by the election of President Donald Trump.

Kremlin officials gloated when Trump took office in January. After Trump called Putin on Feb. 12, spokesman Dmitry Peskov purred that “the U.S. is taking a much more balanced position” on the Ukraine war. In early March, as Trump began squeezing Ukraine for concessions, Peskov said: “The new administration is rapidly changing all foreign policy configurations. … This largely coincides with our vision.”

Administration officials offered a deal that seemed to meet Putin’s minimum goals: If Russia agreed to a ceasefire, it could keep the territory it occupied in Crimea and four other regions. Moreover, Ukraine wouldn’t be allowed to join NATO after the war, and sanctions against Russia would be eased. Rather than a pariah, Putin would become an economic partner for the United States.

But an arrogant Putin rejected Trump’s deal. He refuses to accept a ceasefire until after negotiations about the war’s “root causes,” where Russian sources say he plans to demand limits on Ukraine’s military and political independence. Putin’s version of a peace deal would give him control over Ukraine that he hasn’t been able to win on the battlefield.

“Putin got greedy. He thought he could get more than what was on the table,” explained Eric Ciaramella, a former top Russia analyst for the CIA who’s now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Now, Putin might get nothing. Russia plans to submit its terms for settlement next month, but this diktat is likely to be rejected by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

If Trump walks away from a failed negotiation, as he has threatened to do, Putin will have a free hand. But what will that mean? The war will continue, probably more brutally than before. Ukraine’s cities will be pounded by missiles and drones, but Russia’s might be, too. And Putin will be further than ever from his goal of creating a friendly, pro-Russian Ukraine on his border.

“Putin has created his own nightmare,” Ciaramella argued. “Ukraine was weak militarily before the war, but now it’s getting stronger and stronger, and closer to Europe. Russia has produced exactly what it wanted to prevent.”

To appreciate the magnitude of Putin’s failure, it helps to go back to his statement when he launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, coyly labeling it a “special military operation.” He protested that “in the territories adjacent to us … an ‘anti-Russia’ hostile to us is being created … and is supplied with the most modern weapons.”

Putin vowed that Russia would regain control of a country that was “historically ours.” And he warned the West: “Whoever tries to interfere with us, and even more so to create threats for our country, for our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences that you have never experienced in your history.”

Three years later, Putin has not even managed to gain control of the region of Donetsk, let alone the country. In the first year of the war, his army suffered more casualties than in all its wars since 1945 combined. And though Russia now has the upper hand, Ukraine has shown that, with European backing, it can keep fighting for at least several more years.

Some Russian analysts saw signs last fall that Putin had realized his goal of reversing Ukraine’s “anti-Russia” status was impossible. Konstantin Remchukov, a well-connected Russian journalist, argued in October that “Russia recognizes that a significant number of Ukrainians choose the current government in the country, consider themselves Ukrainians, and do not want to see any future together with Russia.”

But that optimistic analysis turned out to be wrong. Putin was set in his hard-line position, and he believed Trump’s election would allow him to neuter Ukraine, at last. That was Putin’s mistake. He overreached.

Russia’s predicament “is an irony of Putin’s own making,” Ciaramella explained in a December 2023 paper. “Despite claiming to have invaded Ukraine to increase Russia’s security, Putin’s blunder saddled his country with a far more dangerous challenge. So long as Russian forces occupy Ukrainian territory, Ukraine will constitute, in the words of Carnegie scholar Eugene Rumer, ‘the most threatening, hostile, irreconcilable enemy on Russia’s western frontier.’”

Tatiana Stanovaya, a Carnegie scholar with close ties to Putin’s inner circle, was skeptical that Trump would provide a safe hatch in November, after his election. She explained: “The problem is that no Western leader — including Trump — has a plan for ending the war that would be remotely acceptable to Putin.”

Stanovaya, probably the best Putin-watcher outside Russia, explained his current goal in a May 19 post on X: “What he truly wants is for Ukrainians to accept that they cannot win, that there is no point in continuing to fight against Russia, and that Moscow is prepared to persevere regardless of the cost because it views the conflict as existential.”

Putin’s mistake, now as in 2022, is that he underestimates Ukraine’s will to fight. When I visited Kyiv this month, I found a population hardened to war, even as ballistic missiles ravaged Ukraine’s cities. Putin had tried to destroy Ukraine’s energy grid. He failed. The idea that he can bomb his way to victory by breaking Ukraine’s morale is probably mistaken. Wars don’t work that way.

Russia and Ukraine are locked in a death spiral. Tragically, this war could go on for years, leaving both sides in bloody ruin — and raising the risk of a wider European war. The only way Trump can stop the carnage is to significantly raise the cost for Putin and alter the Russian president’s decision calculus. Otherwise, the missiles will keep flying.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, June 1, 2025 5:48 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

‘$16,700 to Go Die’: How Russia Keeps Finding Troops for Ukraine War

By Caleb Larson | May 31, 2025

https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/16700-to-go-die-how-russia-keeps-f
inding-troops-for-ukraine-war/

Key Points – Despite staggering losses in Ukraine (approaching one million casualties and nearly 4,000 tanks according to some estimates), Russia is reportedly girding for a major summer offensive, likely centered on Donetsk.

-Moscow sustains its manpower through substantial financial incentives for recruits, including large signup bonuses (appx. $16,700) and high salaries, particularly attracting men from remote regions. (Their signup bonus equals several years’ income because well-paid Russians don’t sign. Mostly, it is the poor who agree to go to war.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_federal_subjects_by_aver
age_wage )

-While these measures currently allow Russia to replenish its forces at a rate of 1,000-1,500 new soldiers daily, analysts like Michael Kofman question the long-term fiscal sustainability of these astronomical payouts, even as peace talks remain stalled and Russian offensive tactics grow more sophisticated.

Despite Massive Losses, Russia Preps New Ukraine Offensive With Money & Mass

According to the Ukrainian general staff, Russian losses since February of 2022 are rapidly approaching one million in terms of both men killed and wounded. Oryx, an open-source tracking website that tables losses of both Ukrainian and Russian equipping during that war, tabulates Russian tank losses at nearly 4,000. Armored + infantry fighting vehicle losses are almost 8,000.

Show Me the Money

How can Russia convince men to enlist, given the massive losses in Russia notwithstanding?

Who would be willing to sign up to fight in Ukraine? Perhaps the most substantial incentive for new recruits today is financial gain—particularly in Russia’s more remote regions.

In places like Novosibirsk and Irkutsk, in Siberia, signup bonuses and other financial incentives, such as mortgage payment freezes, preferential university selection for children, low-interest loans, debt forgiveness, and salaries significantly higher than average regional wages, attract men to recruitment offices. One man from Irkutsk reported that the signup bonus he saw was 1.4 million rubles, equivalent to approximately $16,700. “It’s supposedly what they’re paying you to go die. Or kill. It depends how it turns out, I guess,” he said.

Although Russian wages were slowly increasing before 2022, the data show a sharp and marked uptick in wages after that year, a result of the injection of high war wages that soldiers received from a mix of local and federal funding.

“According to Kluge’s analysis, approximately three-quarters of the sign-on bonuses to military recruits — around 1.5 billion rubles ($18.3 million) per day — are shouldered by regional governments, many of which are now allocating nearly 3% of their annual budgets to the recruitment campaign. The remaining 500 million rubles ($6.1 million) come from the federal budget,” The Moscow Times reports.

“Despite a slowdown in increases of sign-on bonuses across the country,” the Times said, “recruitment levels remain consistent with late 2024, with an estimated 1,000 to 1,500 new soldiers joining the Russian military each day.”

The Coming Russian Offensive in Ukraine

In the meantime, Ukrainian forces are bracing for an anticipated Russian offensive this summer, potentially centered around Donetsk in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Though Russian forces control parts of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and nearly all of the Lugansk oblasts, as well as the entirety of the Crimean Peninsula, the fight in the east has been incredibly slow and costly in Russian lives and treasure.

With negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow stalled, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin would hope to deepen the slow gains the Kremlin’s forces have made along the extensive eastern front and punch through Ukraine’s defensive lines. While Russian troops continue to mount incredibly costly direct assaults against the Ukrainian lines, those attacks have become more sophisticated as the war in Ukraine drags on.

Mobile groups of soldiers on motorcycles, quads, personnel carriers, and other ersatz forms of transportation are reinforced by or follow artillery bombardments and barrages of glide bombs as well as waves of FPV drones. Though very costly, these assaults slowly push Ukrainian forces back, nibbling at the frontline in a piecemeal but steady fashion.

“While Putin is under no pressure on the home front, he will be keen to achieve some kind of meaningful breakthrough in the coming months in order to demonstrate to domestic and international audiences that the Russian army is capable to achieving victory in Ukraine,” the Atlantic Council, a think tank, explained.

Putin recently said that Moscow has “sufficient strength and resources to take the war in Ukraine to its logical conclusion.” This is despite the fact that Russia failed to capture Kyiv, Kherson, Odesa, and many other major Ukrainian cities.

Although the sanctions imposed on Russia following the 2022 full-scale invasion are extensive, the Russian defense industry remains capable of producing munitions, building vehicles, and recruiting new troops through ongoing recruitment drives.

However, despite the incredible losses Russia has sustained, those losses are remarkable and have been absorbed. Posting to Bluesky, Michael Kofman, a Russian defense analyst, said the following:

“Yes, Russian losses are significant, but the current RF contract rate is still providing replacements and enabling rotations. Russian payouts and bonuses have grown astronomically, raising questions about how long they can sustain this pace into 2025. Eventually, no amount of RUB will be enough.”

Ukraine War: What Happens Now?

There is a tipping point where the amount of money offered to new volunteers would be insufficient to keep recruits coming in — but that point has not yet been reached. Recent estimates indicate that the number of new recruits entering the Russian ranks ranges from 1,000 to 1,500 per day. The old, infirm, and feeble-minded are seemingly all eligible to sign up. A cease-fire remains elusive, as do the prospects for a lasting peace.

If Russia’s summer offensive comes to fruition, Ukraine will have to absorb what could prove to be several devastating blows.

About the Author: Caleb Larson

Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, June 1, 2025 5:51 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russia fills frontline ranks with foreign mercenaries amid manpower crisis - video

By Danylo Kramarenko, Bohdan Babaiev | Sat, May 31, 2025 - 18:00

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-fills-frontline-ranks-with-fore
ign-1748703406.html

Problems with personnel in the Russian army are forcing Moscow to recruit mercenaries from around the world. This raises questions about the already absurd claim of the "war to defend the Russian world," reports the Russian Telegram channel Rospartizan.

The channel posted a video showing recent reinforcements to Russia's 102nd Motor Rifle Regiment.

"China, Kenya, Colombia, Bangladesh, Iran. Also Caucasians and a few 'Orthodox,'" the caption said.

In the video, a person with a camera asks where the new recruits came from. Among them are people from the Russian republics such as Ingushetia and Dagestan. There are also recruits from Kenya, Iran, China, Colombia, Ghana, Egypt, and Bangladesh, who have "strengthened the ranks" of Putin's guard.

Warning: The video contains profanity.

Judging by the video, mercenaries are being recruited from all over the world. These fighters appear to be of questionable quality. This likely indicates a severe personnel shortage and recruitment problems for the enemy.

Notably, this regiment is deployed to the hotspots of the Russia-Ukraine war. The number of volunteers willing to fight from within Russia is declining.

Details about Russia's 102nd Motor Rifle Regiment

The 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (102nd MRR, military unit 91706) is a tactical formation of Russia's Ground Forces. It is part of the 150th Guards Motorized Rifle Division and is based in the settlement of Persiyanovsky, Rostov region.

The regiment was formed in November 2018. It was named the "Slonim-Pomeranian Red Banner Order of Suvorov and Kutuzov Regiment."

At the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it suffered heavy losses in the battles for Mariupol. Afterwards, it participated in the capture of Popasna, Bakhmut, and Marinka. Since the spring of last year, it has fought for Chasiv Yar.

On April 16, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded it the title "Guards."

The Russian media reports that Moscow recruited over 400,000 people on contract in 2024. Effectively, about 1,000 people are sent to the war against Ukraine daily.

According to a British intelligence report, from April 2023 to May 2024, Russia recruited more than 1,500 foreigners.

Notably, dozens of foreign mercenaries are in Ukrainian captivity. Among them are soldiers with Chinese and North Korean citizenship. It was reported that a pair of North Korean soldiers did not take part in the largest prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia, which took place May 23–25 on a 1,000-for-1,000 basis.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, June 1, 2025 5:53 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Kremlin is continuing efforts to prepare Russian society and the Russian defense industry base (DIB) for a protracted war with Ukraine and potential future war with NATO. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on May 30 allowing the Russian government to revoke the rights of shareholders of defense industrial enterprises in the event that the enterprise fails to fulfill state defense orders during martial law.[4] The decree enables the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade to appoint a management company to act as the sole executive body of the enterprise in order to fulfill contractual obligations to the Russian government. The decree applies to civilian aviation and shipbuilding companies, military development and production companies, and government subcontractors. Putin is likely setting legal conditions to allow the Russian government to commandeer elements of Russia's economy and DIB should the Kremlin introduce full martial law in order to transition the country to a full wartime footing. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is preparing Russian society and economy for a protracted war in Ukraine, indicating that Russia is not interested in engaging in good faith negotiations to reach a diplomatic settlement to its war in Ukraine.[5]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-may-31-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, June 1, 2025 6:18 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Western hesitation continues to undermine Ukraine

May 31, 2025 6:04 PM

https://kyivindependent.com/western-hesitation-continues-to-undermine-
ukraine/

While investing in Ukraine’s defense industry is necessary — something President Zelensky himself has emphasized in urging allies to strengthen the country’s defensive capabilities — the fact that he returned from Germany without a Taurus delivery promise reveals a deeper issue.

These missiles represent not only a powerful symbolic gesture, demonstrating that the West is truly committed to Ukraine’s defense, but also an immediate and tangible impact on the battlefield.

As recently highlighted by the Kyiv Independent, the Taurus missile can be programmed to detonate only after penetrating multiple layers of protection, making it especially effective against strategic targets like the Crimean Bridge.

Beyond being an important symbol for Russian President Vladimir Putin, that bridge is a crucial logistical link between mainland Russia and the occupied peninsula — a target of both symbolic and operational significance.

The absence of the Taurus in this package highlights a familiar blind spot: many Western governments still underestimate how much timing matters.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, June 1, 2025 8:13 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Did you wonder why tens of millions of Russians died during WWII? It wasn't only because of Nazis. It was mostly because of how Russians, at the front, in contact with the enemy, fight a war:

Russian soldiers surrendered because 'abuse in units is worse than captivity'

June 1, 2025 10:49 AM

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-soldiers-surrendered-because-abuse
-by-commanders-is-worse-than-captivity-ukrainian-paratroopers-say/

A group of Russian soldiers fighting in the Kursk direction surrendered to Ukrainian paratroopers because "abuse in units is worse than captivity," Ukraine's Airborne Assault Forces said in a video posted on social media on May 31.

"In their units on the territory of the Russian Federation, they were subjected to inhumane treatment, psychological pressure and threats," the post reads.

Russia's abuse of its own soldiers has been well documented throughout the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

An investigation by the Insider last July reported that Russia uses a systematic program of "gulag-style" abuse directed at its soldiers in Ukraine in order to "maintain order" and punish perceived offenders.

According to the Insider, the patterns of abuse of Russian soldiers in Ukraine "borrow heavily from Soviet labor camp traditions."

Russian units have employed "punishment squads" that seek out soldiers who are abusing alcohol, refuse orders, or are simply disliked, and then subject them to a variety of abuse, including beatings and "confinement pits."

A report in Foreign Policy in 2023 detailed a decades-long system of "sadistic hazing" in the Russian army that included one soldier who had to have his legs and genitals amputated after he was forced to squat in the snow for several hours.

The video released by Ukraine's Airborne Assault Forces shows at least eight Russian soldiers interviewed at an undisclosed location.

One describes being sent to the front less than a month ago and being "blown up immediately," leaving just two men alive in his unit. Another said his unit was left to dig trenches and fend for themselves when they were spotted by a Ukrainian drone and "after that everything fell apart."

"The prisoners were provided with the necessary medical and psychological assistance," the military said.

Intercepted calls released by Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) suggest numerous abuses by Russian commanders against their own troops, including one incident where one lost his temper and ordered his soldiers to shoot at their own comrades in a neighbouring unit.

"F**k the 55th (an adjacent Russian unit), shoot them, that’s the battalion commander’s order, shoot them," a Russian commander can be heard saying in an audio published by HUR on April 5.

The unidentified Russian commander appears frustrated at the adjacent Russian unit for not properly following an order and revealing their positions to Ukrainian troops.

If Russian officers stopped being hostile toward Russian soldiers, the soldiers' death rate would drop and their battlefield effectiveness would rise.
Ukraine's best hope is that Russia keeps thinking that its Army's ineffectiveness and high death rate is not caused by bad leadership.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, June 1, 2025 8:21 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Not much in the news is Ukraine's massive drone atracks on Moscow and other targets in "old Russia", which actually began before Russias May 9 Victory Day parade. I've lost count of how many drones were swarmed into Russia, but I estimate in the realm of 2000 or more, about 500 drones per wave.

Given Ukraine's history of (literally) every offensive having been planned, funded, armed, and actively overseen by Britain and the USA from a station in Germany, this drone swarm attack has probably been in the works since last summer, with lots of funding, building, planning, and targeting by the west.

And like the 2024 Kursk offensive (aimed at the Kursk NPP] , the counteroffensive in Krynky (lots of Ukrainian solders fed onto the eastern side of the Dnieper and killed), and the summer counteroffensive of 2023, and the offensive of 2022 (which broke on the Surovikin line) this offensive was also a failure.

Presumably it was meant to clear a path thru Russias air defenses for TAURUS missiles launches, ALREADY STAGED IN UKRAINE and aimed at Moscow.

THIS offensive, like previous offensives, was also meant to give Ukraine/ NATO/ USA leverage, and most likely the basis for General Kellogg pushing his wholly unrealistic "22-point peace plan".

I wonder whether Trump was promised leverage from a successful counteroffensive, same as he was promised victory against Ansarallah (Houthis).

With the failure of the drone swarms the USA, and Trump specifically, faces a choice: escalate AGAIN by launching longer-range missiles into old Russia against a still-effective air defense (Don't forget that European missiles are air launched, and with their ranges need to be launched from aircraft near the front line, vulnerable to attack. The only realitic targets are in Crimea.)

Or throw in the towel.

Trump IMHO isn't committed to this war. OTOH there is a political price to pay if he can be painted as having lost this war, when in reality it was a victim of American Generals' overpromises.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Sunday, June 1, 2025 8:31 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Trump IMHO isn't committed to this war. OTOH there is a political price to pay if he can be painted as having lost this war, when in reality it was a victim of American Generals' overpromises.

Trump Delays Again

Phillips P. OBrien | Jun 01, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-135-has-the-russ
ian

It took all of two days this time for Trump to admit that he is full of BS. When, on Monday May 26, Trump released his public, performative tweet expressing irritation with Putin for bombarding Ukrainian cities on Monday and threatening harsh sanctions against Russia, some people once again took Trump seriously.

As I mentioned in the piece above, please do not do that. Trump is using these tweets to protect Putin, not threaten the Russian dictator. As long as Trump looks irritated with Russia and threatens sanctions, he can hold US-backers of Ukraine at bay and keep some Europeans hopeful that he might stand with them. However, all that really matters now is actions—and Trump did what he always does and come up with reasons not to do anything to hurt Russia. Two days after that tweet, on May 28, Trump announced that he was so irritated with Putin that he would need “about two weeks” to think things through.

For those who don’t know—the two week claim is Trump’s standard delaying claim. In Trump’s first term he regularly claimed, for instance, that he was going to produce a replacement for Obamacare in two or a few weeks time. None ever appeared. In this term he has regularly said that a deal with Russia is only a few or two weeks away—or that he needs two weeks more to decide whether to sanction Russia.

And it never happens.

This week to make it clear that it will not happen, by Friday Trump was back making excuses for Putin, In arguably the second most unnerving press conference of the last 4 months (the first was the press conference during with Vance and Trump ambushed Zelensky), Trump trotted out his regular defense of the Russian dictator.

This was the “farewell” press conference for Elon Musk, who is reportedly stepping back from his very influential position in the Trump administration. The Press conference was unnerving because of Musk’s behavior, which seemed spacey (following hard on the heels of the news reports of his very heavy drug use during the presidential campaign—drug use the supposedly involved so much ketamine that at times he could not control his bladder). If you want to watch Musk and the whole press conference—here is a link. From the very beginning its profoundly weird.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, June 1, 2025 8:47 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Meanwhile, at the battlefront, it would be safe to say that Russia is advancing "like a lava flow'.

Listing the advances (from north to south) for most people is just a list of unfamiliar names, but ...

Russia is continuing its defense of Kursk by advancing across the border into Sumy (northern Ukraine), and also into Kharkiv (northeastern Ukraine), opening up another front. They've been tasked with creating a "buffer zone" to protect Moscow.

The way this front is shaping up, it looks to cut off a huge chunk of northeastern Ukraine if one incursion drives southeast and the other drives northwest to meet it

The northeastern city of Kupiansk"s exurbs are being entered from the north. Villages to the west are being evacuated.

The greatest movement is on the central eastern front, in the Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk region. At one point there was a huge bight that avoided both cities, but Pokrovsk became semi-encircled from the south, and Russian troops are now creating a huge wedge between the cities, cutting off their supply lines.

South of Pokrovsk, Russia is busy driving to Dneipro, creating and the destroying pockets as they go.

Russian troops are also aiming at the city of Zaparizhzhia, currently creating a path thru villages on the route.

Nowhere do Ukrainian troops seem able to stabilize the frontline, and between Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka its reasonable to talk of a collapse.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Sunday, June 1, 2025 9:01 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

40 Russian aircraft downed in Ukraine's massive drone attack on air base: Report

Ukrainian drones attacked a military unit in the Sredny settlement in Russia's Irkutsk region, local authorities claimed.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/explosions-ukraine-massive-drone
-attack-russia-air-base-moscow-aircraft-downed-2734024-2025-06-01

By Vivek Kumar | Jun 1, 2025 18:14 IST

In Short

• Ukrainian drones target Russian Tu-95 and Tu-22 strategic bombers

• Attack at military unit in Russia's Irkutsk region, say local authorities

• Explosions reported near Olenya Air Base in Murmansk

Ukraine conducted a major drone attack hitting over 40 Russian military aircraft on Sunday, news agency Reuters reported, quoting officials from Ukraine's domestic security agency, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).

The SBU further claimed that the Ukrainian forces hit Russian aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22 strategic bombers, which it deploys to fire long-range missiles at Ukraine, the report added.

Igor Kobzev, the regional governor, said that the Ukrainian drones attacked a military unit in the Sredny settlement in Russia's Irkutsk region.

Explosions and heavy smoke have been observed near the Olenya Air Base in the Murmansk region, Belarusian news media outlet NEXTA reported, while sharing images and videos of the aftermath on X (formerly Twitter).

"Preliminary reports suggest a possible drone strike. Olenya is one of Russia’s key strategic aviation facilities, hosting aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

However, it clarified that there was no official confirmation of the same, adding that, if confirmed, this would mark one of the most sensitive strikes on Russia’s military infrastructure since the start of the war.

There were no immediate reports of any injuries or casualties in the drone attack.

This came a week after Russian forces unleashed 367 drones and missiles across Ukrainian cities, marking the war's largest aerial attack to date. The barrage claimed 13 lives, including three children in Zhytomyr, and injured dozens, with strikes hitting Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Ternopil and Khmelnytskyi.

Though Ukraine's air force downed 266 drones and 45 missiles, damage was widespread, with apartment blocks and infrastructure heavily impacted.

The Russian assault had come hours after Moscow claimed it intercepted and destroyed around 100 of the unmanned Ukrainian weapons, including some aimed at the capital.

The Defence Ministry reported its air defence units intercepted or destroyed 95 Ukrainian drones over a four-hour period. That included two near Moscow, but most were over Russia's central and southern regions.

The latest skirmishes have come amid the US calling on Russia at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to accept a comprehensive ceasefire proposal in Ukraine, calling it "Russia’s best possible outcome" and urging President Vladimir Putin to seize the opportunity for peace.

The US proposal includes a 30-day halt to all hostilities—land, air, sea, and attacks on critical infrastructure, and has already been accepted by Ukraine, pending Russia’s agreement.

US President Donald Trump has made ending the Ukraine war a key foreign policy goal. The conflict, which began in February 2022 with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has persisted despite international pressure and failed peace efforts.

The recent peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on May 16 ended without agreement. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow has drafted a memorandum outlining its terms for a ceasefire but has yet to share it with Ukraine. A second round of talks is proposed for Monday in Istanbul.

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Sunday, June 1, 2025 6:22 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Drones were apparently driven into Russia in trucks and launched nearby the airbases. Russia confirms the attacks but not the extent of damage - they never do.

Some of the planes reportedly attacked were strategic (i.e. nuclear capable) bombers, part of Russia's nuclear deterrence triad, far from the front line and not involved in Ukraine.

Clearly, not intended to affect the war, but an extreme provocation.

Also, two bridges blown up, taking out two trains. One train in Kursk was a freight train, possibly a legitimate target. The other tho, was a PASSANGER train; the bridge was blown just as the train was on it, killing many and injuring many more.

That could credibly be called a terror attack.

Militarily weak groups resort to sabotage and terror. Just an indication of the west's desperation, bc I'll bet dollars to donuts Britain, at least, was behind this.

Events timed to derail (so to speak) negotiations taking place tomorrow?

FWIW Russia doesn't target civilians. When they have struck hotels (which is seldom) it's bc there's a meeting of western and Ukrainian commanders abd other military mucky-mucks taking place there. And despite Kiev's propaganda, Russia doesn't slaughter civilians.

If Russia is smart they'll send their delegation, wait for a couple of days for Ukraine reps to show up, then declare Ukraine a terrorist state.

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