REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Tuesday, June 18, 2024 08:00
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 116051
PAGE 133 of 135

Sunday, June 2, 2024 1:08 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Richard H. Black, a former US senator from Virginia, offers a sobering analysis:
He is NOT a US senator. He is a state senator. Virginia State Senate, 2012-2020 (retired)
Virginia House of Delegates, 1998-2006
http://www.senatorblack.com/bio/

As for the Russians, they have threatened to nuke the US a million times since they got a bomb. They are the boy who cried wolf. If they want to be believed, the Russians should nuke one of the Aleutian Islands to show they mean it for real. There are plenty of islands for the Russians to sink into the Pacific. I beg Putin to prove he is a man whose word means something rather than a lunatic and blowhard who cannot stop making empty threats.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, June 2, 2024 2:06 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Russians don't want to nuke anybody.
They don't want to escalate to WWIII.
Unlike us.

They're just trying to warn us, and we don't want to listen.
We just keep pushing and pushing and pushing.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, June 2, 2024 6:18 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Russians don't want to nuke anybody.
They don't want to escalate to WWIII.
Unlike us.

They're just trying to warn us, and we don't want to listen.
We just keep pushing and pushing and pushing.
Russia is poor compared to the EU because it spins fantasies. Two related fantasies are that nukes mean they can't lose a war. The other fantasy?

Russia Is Now Telling Reluctant Soldiers They Will Be Resurrected
‘DEATH DOES NOT EXIST’

Russia’s state controlled propaganda outlets are resorting to ever more outlandish lines to try to convince people to sign up and join the war in Ukraine.

By Julia Davis | May 29, 2024 9:52AM EDT

https://www.thedailybeast.com/panicked-russia-is-now-telling-reluctant
-soldiers-they-will-be-resurrected

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s propagandists—including Russian Orthodox church that is tightly controlled by the government—are resorting to outlandish methods to recruit more volunteers and comfort brokenhearted families of soldiers who perished in Ukraine.

From the beginning, Putin’s loyal mouthpieces like state TV host Vladimir Solovyov asserted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a “holy war,” predicting it would lead to a “global jihad” against the West. Deputy of the State Duma Vyacheslav Nikonov claimed that Russia is “the embodiment of the forces of good” and stated, “This is truly a holy war we're waging and we must win.” Major General Apti Alaudinov, the commander of Chechen forces, who is himself a Muslim, claimed that Russia’s war against Ukraine will lead to the second coming of Christ, describing Moscow’s troops as “the forerunners of Jesus forces.”

Apparently, these assurances are not sufficient to ensure a steady stream of volunteers, much less to calm down the families of fallen soldiers. This month, Archpriest of the Russian Orthodox Church Artemiy Vladimirov decided to up the ante and claimed that soldiers fighting on Russia’s side in Ukraine get resurrected after they get killed.

Host of TV channel “Soyuz” Sergey Platonov told Vladimirov that he often speaks to soldiers serving in Ukraine and has been trying to convince them that there is no such thing as death. Describing one of his recent conversations with a Russian soldier, the host proudly said, “Maybe I’m boasting but I was successfully able to explain that death does not exist. He was encouraged by that!”

Vladimirov played along and replied, “In war, there are no unbelievers! When you are facing physical death, every fiber of your soul comes alive. Right now, there are many wonderful testimonies of Christ’s victory over death. My wife sends me many military testimonies and video clips. Before Lent, I watched a video about one Chinese man who participated in the special military operation. A bullet hit him in the stomach, destroying all of his insides. He died from this and then was resurrected.”

Vladimirov continued to spin the tale, claiming, “Saint Luke of Crimea appeared to him and completely healed him, his insides were fully restored. He was baptized along with his relatives, all of them are photographed together, dressed in white clothes, baptized into our Orthodox Church.”

Platonov said that Vladimirov’s tale of a physical resurrection is an example of what should be a constant topic of conversation. He surmised, “All of us talk on the Internet, these stories should be constantly told. Death does not exist.”

More miracles at https://www.thedailybeast.com/panicked-russia-is-now-telling-reluctant
-soldiers-they-will-be-resurrected

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, June 2, 2024 6:29 AM

THG





Russia is dying right in front of the world.

T

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, June 2, 2024 6:30 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


One Huge Change Now Could Help Ukraine Defeat Putin

Ukrainians in the firing line on the border pleaded with the U.S. to allow them to use American weapons to strike back into Russian territory.

By Anna Conkling | Jun. 02, 2024, 3:33AM EDT

https://www.thedailybeast.com/us-changing-rules-on-weapons-could-now-l
et-ukraine-defeat-putin

ZOLOCHIV, Ukraine—The thud of bombs and the roar of air raid sirens pierce the air in Zolochiv, a desolate village in Kharkiv region. The village holds no strategic value for Russia, but its proximity to the border just 12 miles away means Zolochiv has little or no warning of fresh attacks, and casualties and deaths are frequent. Terror runs high among civilians.

Three years into the war, residents of Zolochiv feel that Kyiv’s military must boost the village’s defenses by attacking weapons, launch sites, airfields and military logistics centers within Russia, before attacks can be unleashed on Ukrainians. Until now, Western countries’ restrictions have prevented them from doing so out of fear that the war might expand, and amid nuclear threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Many feel now those rules must be torn up to give Ukraine a chance to defeat Putin.

Throughout the war, most of Ukraine’s international allies have insisted that any weapons they provide must be used exclusively within the country’s territory. The restrictions were initially developed to prevent the war from expanding, and backed by NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly, the Biden administration, and European countries. However, Ukrainians argue that complying with the restrictions is limiting the country’s ability to defend itself and could lead to a Russian victory.

The debate over whether Ukraine might use Western weapons in Russia has rumbled on throughout the war, but in recent weeks it has been thrust into the spotlight. On May 10, Russia launched a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, a major turning point for life in Ukraine’s second-largest city and its surrounding towns and villages. Attacks have continued throughout the Kharkiv region for the entirety of the war, and air raid sirens sound so often that most people tend to forget about the warnings and continue their day. Since the counteroffensive began, however, the region has been pummeled every day, and given its proximity to Russia, Kharkiv’s air defense system is not advanced enough to infiltrate all incoming attacks. In just seconds, an attack launched from Russia’s nearby Belgorod can strike the Kharkiv region, and by the time the threat is detected, it is often too late to stop.

Ukraine has argued that it is crucial for the country to be allowed—in self-defense—to attack the military sites inside Russia that are bombing them. They also say attacks could destroy military facilities, weapons, and personnel before they come to the frontlines, and allied countries are beginning to agree. On May 28, all 32 NATO states adopted a declaration urging members to allow strikes on military targets inside Russia, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken has voiced his agreement.

On Thursday, Politico reported that Biden had approved Ukraine’s request to attack military targets inside of Russia near Kharkiv. The rule change was limited to the defense of this region, not allowing Ukraine to fire long-range missiles deep into Russian territory—but it still marked a major shift in the war. The article was published at around 11 p.m. local time, and less than one hour later, Kharkiv was bombarded with attacks that injured 25 people and killed four.

Behind Enemy Lines

Taking the fight to Russia has been a key strategic element of the entire war. Ukrainian drones have struck as far away as Moscow, and since the start of this year, there have been a flurry of attacks on oil refineries and military targets.

Even some Russian residents have realized the importance of staging attacks inside Russia in an attempt to stop future attacks on Ukraine.

More at https://www.thedailybeast.com/us-changing-rules-on-weapons-could-now-l
et-ukraine-defeat-putin

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, June 2, 2024 6:35 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:
Originally posted by THG:



Russia is dying right in front of the world.




and so is Ukraine pinko tranny fag

its possible Ukraine might never be the same

Russia might also collapse but Ukraine may collapse first, will Frogistan or Britbong collapse with Russia, before Russia or after it?

in the 90s after the collapse of the USSR they were worried about where Russian scientists would go and suitcase bombs

Hey
I was not sure if you were a bot or not but anyways its interesting to finally hear your own words instead of copying and pasting and parroting the pedo Zeihan's bullshit


NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, June 2, 2024 6:43 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Individual Western governments are stipulating disparate policies about Ukraine's future use of Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets.

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo stated on May 28 that Ukraine will only be able to use Belgian-supplied F-16s on the territory of Ukraine.[10] It is unclear from De Croo's statement, however, if Belgium will allow Ukraine to use Belgian-supplied F-16s to conduct strikes on Russian territory from Ukrainian airspace.

Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren stated on May 31 that the Netherlands has stipulated no restrictions on Ukraine's use of Dutch-supplied F-16s and that Ukraine can use these F-16s "above or on Russian territory" as long as Ukraine follows Article 51 of the UN Charter and international humanitarian law."[11] Article 51 of the UN Charter notably stipulates that "nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against" a UN member state — a reminder that Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory in the context of the Russian invasion are part of Ukraine's inherent right of self-defense.[12]

Continued variations in Western governments' F-16 policies will require Ukraine to track which aircraft Ukrainian forces can and cannot use to conduct certain strikes, complicating Ukraine's ability to plan and conduct aviation operations using F-16s.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-june-1-2024

Putin Ally Issues Nuclear Warning Over Ukraine's New F-16s
https://www.newsweek.com/sergei-lavrov-warning-nato-f-16-jets-ukraine-
1906123

F-16 to be legitimate target for Russia if used against its forces — Putin
"Naturally, if they are used from airfields of third countries, they will be a legitimate target for us, no matter where they might be," Putin said.
https://tass.com/politics/1767011

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, June 2, 2024 8:54 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Nuclear threats remain a key part of Moscow's strategy.

On Saturday, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev - a key ally of Putin - warned NATO would be making a "fatal mistake" if it dismissed Russia's nuclear threat.

"Russia regards all long-range weapons used by Ukraine as already being directly controlled by servicemen from NATO countries. This is no military assistance, this is participation in a war against us," Medvedev said.

"And such actions could well become a casus belli [an act that provokes a war]."

He said it would be a "fatal mistake" on the part of the West to think that Russia was not ready to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine - and spoke of the potential to strike unnamed hostile countries with strategic nuclear weapons.

"This is, alas, neither intimidation nor bluffing," said Mr Medvedev.

https://news.sky.com/story/kremlin-official-threatens-war-against-nato
-if-ukraine-uses-us-weapons-against-russia-13146185

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, June 2, 2024 1:11 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Ukrainians in the firing line on the border pleaded with the U.S. to allow them to use American weapons to strike back into Russian territory.


This is such a bullshit. They've been using western weapons to strike Belgorod for months. That's why Russia activated the Kharkov front.

Only a dummy believes western press!

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, June 2, 2024 1:46 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Ukrainians in the firing line on the border pleaded with the U.S. to allow them to use American weapons to strike back into Russian territory.


This is such a bullshit. They've been using western weapons to strike Belgorod for months. That's why Russia activated the Kharkov front.

Only a dummy believes western press!
A quick check: "The city of Belgorod, the provincial capital with a population of about 340,000, sits only 40 kilometers (25 miles) east of the border, making it an easy target for Ukrainian artillery."
https://www.google.com/search?q=belgorod+to+ukraine+border+distance

Signym, Belgorod is an "easy target for Ukrainian artillery". But if Ukraine has targets slightly beyond Belgorod, it needs a weapon with more Oomph! Perhaps made elsewhere than Russia and Ukraine.


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, June 2, 2024 2:26 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND:
Ukrainians in the firing line on the border pleaded with the U.S. to allow them to use American weapons to strike back into Russian territory.

SIGNY: This is such a bullshit. They've been using western weapons to strike Belgorod for months. That's why Russia activated the Kharkov front.
Only a dummy believes western press!

SECOND: A quick check: "The city of Belgorod, the provincial capital with a population of about 340,000, sits only 40 kilometers (25 miles) east of the border, making it an easy target for Ukrainian artillery."
https://www.google.com/search?q=belgorod+to+ukraine+border+distance

Signym, Belgorod is an "easy target for Ukrainian artillery". But if Ukraine has targets slightly beyond Belgorod, it needs a weapon with more Oomph! Perhaps made elsewhere than Russia and Ukraine.


A quick check on actual facts: Ukraine has been using Czech Vampire rockets to strike Belgorod for months.

Seven killed in Ukrainian missile strike on Russia's Belgorod - governor
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/least-four-killed-ukrainian-missi
le-strike-belgorod-russian-media-2024-02-15/

Geolocated pictures and everything.

And why are they striking Belgorod anyway? It's a civilian city, and all they're doing is killing civilians, apparently.

*****

Yanno, I noticed the number of posts in this thread: 6610.

Roughly 80% are yours, and they're nearly all bullshit. It's astonishing how you managed to shit up a thread so thoroughly with your ever- shifting secondhand narrative!

Just goes to show the amount of disinfo that the M$M spews relentlessly.

And what a bot you are!



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, June 2, 2024 4:04 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Roughly 80% are yours, and they're nearly all bullshit. It's astonishing how you managed to shit up a thread so thoroughly with your ever- shifting secondhand narrative!

Just goes to show the amount of disinfo that the M$M spews relentlessly.

And what a bot you are!
Signym, explain why you know this post is false:
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=64887&mid=11937
74#1193774
Russia Is Now Telling Reluctant Soldiers They Will Be Resurrected
‘DEATH DOES NOT EXIST’
Russia’s state controlled propaganda outlets are resorting to ever more outlandish lines to try to convince people to sign up and join the war in Ukraine.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, June 2, 2024 6:03 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Roughly 80% are yours, and they're nearly all bullshit. It's astonishing how you managed to shit up a thread so thoroughly with your ever- shifting secondhand narrative!

Just goes to show the amount of disinfo that the M$M spews relentlessly.

And what a bot you are!
Signym, explain why you know this post is false:
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=64887&mid=11937
74#1193774
Russia Is Now Telling Reluctant Soldiers They Will Be Resurrected
‘DEATH DOES NOT EXIST’
Russia’s state controlled propaganda outlets are resorting to ever more outlandish lines to try to convince people to sign up and join the war in Ukraine.



From The Daily Beast.
No link to original source.
No data validating that volunteers have slowed down. (I specifically heard from another source that they're still streaming in at 1000 per day. Conflicting info.)

You're still shitting up the thread and you're still a bot.

"Call me if anyone interesting show up."

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, June 3, 2024 7:41 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Roughly 80% are yours, and they're nearly all bullshit. It's astonishing how you managed to shit up a thread so thoroughly with your ever- shifting secondhand narrative!

Just goes to show the amount of disinfo that the M$M spews relentlessly.

And what a bot you are!
Signym, explain why you know this post is false:
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=64887&mid=11937
74#1193774
Russia Is Now Telling Reluctant Soldiers They Will Be Resurrected
‘DEATH DOES NOT EXIST’
Russia’s state controlled propaganda outlets are resorting to ever more outlandish lines to try to convince people to sign up and join the war in Ukraine.



From The Daily Beast.
No link to original source.
No data validating that volunteers have slowed down. (I specifically heard from another source that they're still streaming in at 1000 per day. Conflicting info.)

You're still shitting up the thread and you're still a bot.

"Call me if anyone interesting show up."

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.
Signym, you either did not go to that link or else you are blind. For one example, the video:



You gave no links during the following diatribe, Signym. You have no idea how crazy you are, do you? It is your typical bunch of predictions and interpretations and fears with no links to justify any of it, nothing other than your psychological need for the Russians to win:

http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=64887&mid=11937
08#1193708

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM: Saturday, June 1, 2024 2:14 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Huh?
I read war news.
I form an opinion .
At least I form an opinion based on news.
It's better than reading propaganda.



SECOND: Do you actually understand how little what Russia has accomplished this year and how many Russians died to accomplish it?


Yes.
Do you? Bc you keep making the same mistake (or keep believing the propaganda) that Russia is trying to take territory and will eventually invade all of Europe!


Russia's stated goals do NOT include taking territory, altho they need to create buffer zones to protect CIVILIANS in Belgorod and Donetsk city. (Ukraine deliberately fires on civilians.)

The first part of Russia's stated goals - demilitarization- requires that Russia attrit ie. destroy, the AFU. They're managing to kill or wound 1000-1500 conscripts per day, destroy a dozen or more major weapons, and degrade dual use infrastructure. With very few losses on their side, thru lavish use of drones, artillery, rockets, guided bombs, and missiles.

If this was just Russia v Ukraine it would have been over a year ago. But this has ALWAYS been a USA project, with the enthusiastic support of most EU "leaders". Russia was never under any illusion that this was Ukraine's idea, and always had in mind that they would be fighting NATO to some extent. Altho they planned for the contingency, what they couldn't know was how possessed USA and EU neocons are, and whether the neocons would risk a direct war with Russia.

Apparently, neocons are.

NATO is throwing in as much as it can, and - as Ukraine goes on the ropes- NATO is slowly coming out from behind the Ukrainian fig leaf.

This is not a war that Russia wanted, but is preparing for. Since NATO can't possibly win a conventional war (they've been demilitarized of conventional weapons and don't have soldiers to speak of) I imagine that if anyone will go nuclear, it would be NATO.

If Russia really wants to reach out and touch someone, they have enough conventional missiles of sufficient power to do it. Precision strikes on EU and NATO HQ and radar stations, command centers, and missile installations in Europe would probably paralyze decision-making and confound retaliation. I'm sure Russia has targets picked out for every contingency. As does our military.

But that would be kinetic WWIII and, even if it remains conventional, EU and UK would be the big losers. And if it goes nuclear, well... I won't have to worry aboutviur daughter's future anymore, and you won't have to propagandize about Trump or climate change.
<-- Signym, I haven't forgotten that you are a climate change denier whose phony "solution" is Trump's Trillion Trees Initiative. Nice idea but not an effective solution to stop climate change. https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/trump-administration-furthers-commit
ment-one-trillion-trees-initiative
https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/articles/president-trump-signs-on
e-trillion-trees-executive-order-promoting-conservation-regeneration-nations-forests/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, June 3, 2024 7:43 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukrainian field commanders are reportedly compensating for training difficulties that mobilization has exacerbated by training new personnel on the frontline. Ukrainian field commanders told the Washington Post that they have devoted significant time to teaching basic skills to newly-redeployed personnel because they do not learn these skills at training centers.[10] The Washington Post reported on June 2 that Ukrainian soldiers who had served in the rear also lack adequate skills upon arrival at the front even though many had been serving in the military prior to the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. The problems the Washington Post identified are not surprising in these circumstances. Most of the Ukrainian forces on the frontline have been fighting for more than two years and are exhausted, so Ukraine is under pressure to speedily rotate them with fresh forces and replace losses to maintain its defense.[11] There is a difficult tradeoff to make between pulling experienced soldiers from the frontline to train new personnel or accepting bottlenecks in training the new personnel. One Ukrainian officer reportedly told the Washington Post that Ukraine needs NATO instructors to train new personnel and to halve training times to one month.[12] Russian rear-area strike campaigns against even the westernmost regions of Ukraine have ensured that Ukraine has effectively no safe rear area in which it can safely train personnel, and sending personnel to train in NATO states – such as the ongoing UK-led Operation Interflex training program – both removes Ukrainian field commanders from the training process and increases the delay in deploying soldiers as Ukraine must transport these personnel to and from NATO states. Ukraine will not resolve these issues quickly, and the average overall quality of Ukrainian forces on the frontline will likely decrease as experienced personnel rotate out and newly-deployed personnel reach the frontline even as the number of available soldiers increases. New soldiers will likely learn rapidly as they fight alongside experienced veterans, however.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-june-2-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, June 3, 2024 7:53 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The Ukraine war is a huge opportunity for US intel to recruit Russian spies

By Josh Campbell | 4:00 AM EDT, Sun June 2, 2024

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/02/world/russia-spies-us-recruitment-ukrai
ne-war/index.html

Russia’s brutal ongoing invasion of Ukraine has provided US intelligence services with a rare opening to recruit Kremlin insiders furious with the handling of the war.

The spy agency is not only ubiquitous across social media platforms, it is actively using its newfound public-facing presence to accomplish one of CIA’s primary objectives: recruiting foreign spies to steal secrets.

Posts have included step-by-step instructions for would-be Russian informants on how to avoid detection by Russia’s security services by using virtual private networks, or VPNs, and the Tor web browser to anonymously and through encryption contact the agency on the so-called Dark Web.

The FBI launched a similar effort aimed at recruiting Russian government sources in the US, including geo-targeting social media ads to phones located near Russia’s embassy in Washington.

“This direct appeal is an unusual approach, but one which could prove effective in reaching a Russian populace with few options to express their discontent,” said Douglas London, a former CIA station chief posted abroad. “Russians angry with the Kremlin’s state-sanctioned corruption and abuse, with no way to act openly, are left with few alternatives other than finding external support.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, June 3, 2024 8:05 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine War Sparks US Intelligence Recruitment of Disgruntled Kremlin Insiders

The CIA and FBI have launched public and covert campaigns to attract informants, leveraging modern technology and social media to bypass Russian security measures.

by Kyiv Post | June 3, 2024, 1:44 pm

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/33700

Russian spymasters bribed German politicians to make anti-Ukraine statements and to buy pro-Kremlin votes in the European Parliament, a major Prague news platform reported, citing intelligence from the Czech national intelligence agency BIS.

The Denik N newspaper revealed that Czech counterintelligence uncovered a network of Kremlin agents and local operatives paying anti-government politicians from at least six EU member states to influence European Parliament votes in favor of Russia.

The operation also funded a major pro-Russian news website, which produced content praising Moscow and spreading negative propaganda about Ukraine, marking one of the largest exposed Russian influence operations in recent years.

Hungarian news outlet VSquare reported that around 100 of the 252 Russian spies in Austria work as diplomats, with many more possibly using civilian cover. This information, shared by an unnamed intelligence chief from a Central European country, was revealed in a closed-door meeting with officials.

In February, it was reported that Ireland refused to renew visas for several Russian diplomats over espionage concerns.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, June 3, 2024 1:12 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Roughly 80% are yours, and they're nearly all bullshit. It's astonishing how you managed to shit up a thread so thoroughly with your ever- shifting secondhand narrative!
Just goes to show the amount of disinfo that the M$M spews relentlessly.
And what a bot you are!

SECOND: Signym, explain why you know this post is false:
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=64887&mid=11937
74#1193774
Russia Is Now Telling Reluctant Soldiers They Will Be Resurrected
‘DEATH DOES NOT EXIST’
Russia’s state controlled propaganda outlets are resorting to ever more outlandish lines to try to convince people to sign up and join the war in Ukraine.


SIGNY: From The Daily Beast.
No link to original source.
No data validating that volunteers have slowed down. (I specifically heard from another source that they're still streaming in at 1000 per day. Conflicting info.)
You're still shitting up the thread and you're still a bot.
"Call me if anyone interesting show up."

SECOND: Signym, you either did not go to that link or else you are blind. For one example, the video:
http:// ww w.youtube.com/watch?v=n6pARC9rkHw

No, I didn't go there.
I have no doubt that some Orthodox Christian priests are promising eternal salvation or 72 virgins or whatever the fuck priests promise. Priests often say ridiculous things. But you go on to posit that this is "to try to convince people to sign up and join the war in Ukraine." and you STILL haven't presented any data to show that volunteerism has slowed down.

Quote:
SECOND: You gave no links during the following diatribe*, Signym. You have no idea how crazy you are, do you? It is your typical bunch of predictions and interpretations and fears with no links to justify any of it, nothing other than your psychological need for the Russians to win:

http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=64887&mid=11937
08#1193708

Quote:

SIGNY: Russia's stated goals do NOT include taking territory, altho they need to create buffer zones to protect CIVILIANS in Belgorod and Donetsk city. (Ukraine deliberately fires on civilians.)
The first part of Russia's stated goals - demilitarization- requires that Russia attrit ie. destroy, the AFU. They're managing to kill or wound 1000-1500 conscripts per day, destroy a dozen or more major weapons, and degrade dual use infrastructure. With very few losses on their side, thru lavish use of drones, artillery, rockets, guided bombs, and missiles.
If this was just Russia v Ukraine it would have been over a year ago. But this has ALWAYS been a USA project, with the enthusiastic support of most EU "leaders". Russia was never under any illusion that this was Ukraine's idea, and always had in mind that they would be fighting NATO to some extent. Altho they planned for the contingency, what they couldn't know was how possessed USA and EU neocons are, and whether the neocons would risk a direct war with Russia.
Apparently, neocons are.
NATO is throwing in as much as it can, and - as Ukraine goes on the ropes- NATO is slowly coming out from behind the Ukrainian fig leaf.
This is not a war that Russia wanted, but is preparing for. Since NATO can't possibly win a conventional war (they've been demilitarized of conventional weapons and don't have soldiers to speak of) I imagine that if anyone will go nuclear, it would be NATO.
If Russia really wants to reach out and touch someone, they have enough conventional missiles of sufficient power to do it. Precision strikes on EU and NATO HQ and radar stations, command centers, and missile installations in Europe would probably paralyze decision-making and confound retaliation. I'm sure Russia has targets picked out for every contingency. As does our military.
But that would be kinetic WWIII and, even if it remains conventional, EU and UK would be the big losers. And if it goes nuclear, well... I won't have to worry about our[corrected] daughter's future anymore, and you won't have to propagandize about Trump or climate change.

a) This isn't a "diatribe". You don't know now what a diatribe* is. This is a summary of the facts as I have been able to discern, and a projection into a possible future. Either I'll be proven right, or not.
*diatribe /di'?-trib?/
noun
A bitter, abusive denunciation. A prolonged or exhaustive discussion; especially, an acrimonious or invective harangue; a strain of abusive or railing language; a philippic.

b)Nope! No links!
Links would just be pearls before swine.


Quote:
SECOND: Signym, I haven't forgotten that you are a climate change denier whose phony "solution" is Trump's Trillion Trees Initiative. Nice idea but not an effective solution to stop climate change.

Let's see. You've called me a "Trump supporter".
Nope! My support was limited to three things*, remember?

You've called me a "Trumptard": An angry lower class white person that the economy has passed by. Sorry, sweet cheeks, you missed.

You've called me a "Russian troll" until you wore that one out, too.

Now, you're calling me a "climate change denier"!


I've always thought climate change was real. So stop proposing "get rich quick" schemes that rich people propose, or the "let them eat bugs" approach that pushes costs onto people who are only a small fraction of the problem, and let's get real about solving it.

As the largest institutional emitter of greenhouse gases IN THE WORLD, the DOD should be looked at as a rich oppty for reduction. Not by developing battery powered tanks or solar powered planes (never gonna happen) but by eliminating our wars of choice.

Also, national scale intervention (farmland, forests, urban environments) has the potential for more impact than any number of direct carbon capture plants, or whatever your latest investment hobby horse is.

Limiting the weight of cars and trucks sold for commuting, and banning space joyrides and private jets.


* For killing TTIP, controlling the southern border, negotiating with Russia, but not for his policies towards Israel and Iran.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, June 4, 2024 6:59 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The Russian military is reportedly forcibly sending Russian servicemembers who refused to fight to the front in Ukraine from Russia instead of standing trial for their refusal to participate in combat.

Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on June 3 that Russian military authorities began forcibly sending hundreds of Russian servicemembers who refused to take part in Russian combat operations to the front in Ukraine, including to northern Kharkiv Oblast and Donetsk Oblast, in May 2024.[31] Verstka stated that the Russian military holds the servicemembers at military unit basepoints in Russia as they await trial for crimes related to their refusal to fight before suddenly cancelling their trials and immediately sending them to Ukraine.

Verstka reported that Russian authorities used physical abuse to coerce some soldiers into volunteering to go to Ukraine before forcing others from their holding cells at gunpoint and transporting them to the frontlines. Verstka reported that Sverdlovsk Oblast Commissioner for Human Rights Tatyana Merzlyankova claimed on May 6 that she visited a collection point for servicemembers who refused to fight but that management stated that there were no violations of the servicemembers' civil rights. Verstka reported that Russian authorities cancelled the trials of at least 170 servicemembers who refused to fight and deployed them to Ukraine and that investigators, prosecutors, and lawyers were all unaware of this. Verstka reported that several sources, including one source from the Russian presidential administration, stated that the Russian military sends conscripts and "incompetent" reservists, who have signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), to noncombat roles in Russia's border forces to free up experienced military personnel for the Russian offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast, but that the Russian military is also sending deserters to fight.

A Russian lawyer, who specializes in cases related to servicemembers refusing to fight, reportedly stated that the Russian MoD may be stopping criminal cases to send such servicemembers to the front due to a shortage of forces needed to fight in northern Kharkiv Oblast. ISW previously assessed that Russian forces likely launched the offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast when the Northern Grouping of Forces was under-strength, and the Russian MoD may be sending servicemembers awaiting their trials to the front in Kharkiv Oblast to strengthen the limited forces in the area.[32]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-june-3-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, June 4, 2024 7:05 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Now, you're calling me a "climate change denier"!


I've always thought climate change was real. So stop proposing "get rich quick" schemes that rich people propose, or the "let them eat bugs" approach that pushes costs onto people who are only a small fraction of the problem, and let's get real about solving it.

As the largest institutional emitter of greenhouse gases IN THE WORLD, the DOD should be looked at as a rich oppty for reduction. Not by developing battery powered tanks or solar powered planes (never gonna happen) but by eliminating our wars of choice.

Also, national scale intervention (farmland, forests, urban environments) has the potential for more impact than any number of direct carbon capture plants, or whatever your latest investment hobby horse is.

Limiting the weight of cars and trucks sold for commuting, and banning space joyrides and private jets.


* For killing TTIP, controlling the southern border, negotiating with Russia, but not for his policies towards Israel and Iran.
Your preferences can be lumped into the "solutions" that reduce the world's population to zero to prevent climate change.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, June 4, 2024 7:32 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine Is Closer to Crossing Putin's Biggest Red Line Yet

By Brendan Cole | Jun 04, 2024 at 6:16 AM EDT

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-putin-red-lines-biden-1907796

So far, Putin has not followed through militarily on promises to punish the West for its support of Ukraine but whether this will remain the case and what his red lines are remain uncertain, especially given his announcement in May of nuclear weapon drills.

"There will be a point for Russia where real red lines will be crossed and then of course, they're going to take relevant countermeasures," said Nicolò Fasola, author of the book releasing in July Reinterpreting Russia's Strategic Culture: The Russian Way of War, told Newsweek. "It potentially has strategic implications in that it could be seen by Russia as a considerable step up in escalation."

"Russia could decide to conduct a different set of strikes across different targets and potentially they could once again go for targeting Ukrainian assets on Polish territory," he said. "Or they could go for the demonstration use of tactical nuclear weapons."

The Threat of Retaliation

However, Fasola, a research fellow at the University of Bologna, said the Russians "are scared as we are of escalation," which is why Western fears about Russian escalation "have not proven correct over the last couple of years."

On May 23, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow would retaliate with strikes on U.K. targets if British weapons are used by Ukraine to strike Russian territory.

More speculation by various "experts" at https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-putin-red-lines-biden-1907796

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, June 4, 2024 2:46 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Now, you're calling me a "climate change denier"!


I've always thought climate change was real. So stop proposing "get rich quick" schemes that rich people propose, or the "let them eat bugs" approach that pushes costs onto people who are only a small fraction of the problem, and let's get real about solving it.

As the largest institutional emitter of greenhouse gases IN THE WORLD, the DOD should be looked at as a rich oppty for reduction. Not by developing battery powered tanks or solar powered planes (never gonna happen) but by eliminating our wars of choice.

Also, national scale intervention (farmland, forests, urban environments) has the potential for more impact than any number of direct carbon capture plants, or whatever your latest investment hobby horse is.

Limiting the weight of cars and trucks sold for commuting, and banning space joyrides and private jets.


* For killing TTIP, controlling the southern border, negotiating with Russia, but not for his policies towards Israel and Iran.

SECOND: Your preferences can be lumped into the "solutions" that reduce the world's population to zero to prevent climate change.


Ending the killing and waste from trying to destroy Russia? (And maybe now China?)
Planting cover crops on carbon- poor soils?
Planting more trees and requiring reflective roofs in cities?
Thinning overgrown forests to prevent mega fires and turning the trash into black soil?
Intensively managed grazing?
Limiting the weight of vehicles used for commuting?
Banning private jets and space joyrides?

Yep!
OBVIOUSLY! PEOPLE-KILLING STRATEGIES!!!


Wow.

You. Have. Lost. It.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, June 4, 2024 7:31 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Ending the killing and waste from trying to destroy Russia? (And maybe now China?)
Planting cover crops on carbon- poor soils?
Planting more trees and requiring reflective roofs in cities?
Thinning overgrown forests to prevent mega fires and turning the trash into black soil?
Intensively managed grazing?
Limiting the weight of vehicles used for commuting?
Banning private jets and space joyrides?

Yep!
OBVIOUSLY! PEOPLE-KILLING STRATEGIES!!!


Wow.

You. Have. Lost. It.
Carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory
April 2024: 426.57 ppm

If that number is not reduced to 300 ppm, the game is over. Signym, all the things you suggest, added all together, will not bring it down to 300 ppm. If you want to avoid 500 ppm followed by 600 ppm (426.57 ppm right now) your suggestions will delay the inevitable worst possible disaster, but your suggestions still mean disaster overtakes the world.

https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/

https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-the-world-passed-a-carbon-threshold
-400ppm-and-why-it-matters

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, June 4, 2024 7:33 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The move has elicited a strong warning from Norway’s top military official, General Eirik Kristoffersen, who cautioned that NATO’s window to prepare against Russia has significantly decreased. “At one point someone said it’ll take 10 years but I think we’re back to less than 10 years because of the industrial base that is now running in Russia,” Kristoffersen stated, emphasizing the need for NATO to rebuild its forces within a much shorter two to three-year timeframe.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kyiv-s-first-strike-inside-russia
-with-us-weapons-prompts-stern-nato-and-kremlin-warnings/ar-BB1nByZu



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, June 4, 2024 8:12 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
If that number is not reduced to 300 ppm, the game is over. Signym, nothing you suggest will bring it down to 300 ppm.


How do you know?

One bad forest fire year undid 18 years of California decarbonization.

One space launch emits more greenhouse gases than the poorest billion people do in a whole year.

The DOD is the largest single institutional emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. And that's not counting all of the greenhouse gases emitted during weapons manufacturing, nor all of the greenhouse gasses emitted by competing militaries and competing weapons manufacturing. Just think, SECOND, of all those greenhouse gas emissions wasted on the plains of Ukraine! Just think of all those burning Iraqi oil wells bc of non-existent WMD! (Yanno, I think you gotta decide here. What's more important? Global hegemony? Or saving the earth?)


Carbon storage thru cover cropping
Quote:
North America has the highest potential of any continent for soil carbon storage at 0.17 to 0.35 gigatons (Gt) per year, and the United States has the highest potential of any country on Earth

https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2019/cover-crops-and-carbon-sequestration-be
nefits-producer-and-planet

Dood. Take climate change seriously for a change and stop fantasizing.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, June 4, 2024 8:43 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Carbon storage thru cover cropping
Quote:
North America has the highest potential of any continent for soil carbon storage at 0.17 to 0.35 gigatons (Gt) per year, and the United States has the highest potential of any country on Earth

https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2019/cover-crops-and-carbon-sequestration-be
nefits-producer-and-planet

Dood. Take climate change seriously for a change and stop fantasizing.
How many gigatons of carbon were released in 2023? 37.4 gigatonnes. 0.17 to 0.35 gigatons (Gt) per year ain't gonna get you to 300 ppm CO2 starting from 426.57 ppm right now.

950 gigatons CO2 are in the atmosphere. Again, 0.17 to 0.35 gigatons (Gt) per year ain't gonna be fast enough to prevent catastrophe.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 3:51 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


How many gigatons are carbon capture plants going to absorb?
0.00000001?


Meanwhile in the USA
Quote:
Coal-to-gas switching was the largest driver behind emissions reduction in the US electricity sector.


Gee, too bad Europe's going in the other direction.






-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 6:43 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
How many gigatons are carbon capture plants going to absorb?
0.00000001?

Meanwhile in the USA
Quote:
Coal-to-gas switching was the largest driver behind emissions reduction in the US electricity sector.


Gee, too bad Europe's going in the other direction.
Humans have generated an estimated 1.5 trillion tons of CO2.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/carbon-dioxide-now-more-than-50-high
er-than-pre-industrial-levels

Nature won't handle 1.5 trillion. Either humanity does the job or it will die from climate change.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 6:45 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine and its partners have reportedly drafted a document for the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15 that calls for future engagement with Russia on a limited number of issues connected to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although the Kremlin remains unlikely to engage in meaningful negotiations on the proposal or any wider settlement to the war in Ukraine. Bloomberg reported on June 4 that the draft document aims to generate consensus among summit participants on nuclear safety, food security, and the return of abducted Ukrainian civilians and children.[5] The document reportedly states that this consensus will serve as a "confidence building measure" for future engagement with Russian officials on these issues.[6] The reported document specifically deems nuclear threats as "inadmissible" and calls for the return of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to Ukrainian control, and freedom of navigation in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov so that Ukrainian agricultural products can reach third parties and the return of all deported and unlawfully displaced Ukrainian children and civilians to Ukraine.[7]

Russian officials have routinely been explicitly hostile to engagement with Ukraine on many of these issues, however. The Kremlin frequently threatens Ukraine and the West with nuclear weapons in order to promote Western self-deterrence. The Kremlin also uses nuclear rhetoric as a common tool of its reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing Western decision-making.[8] Russian officials have repeatedly attempted to use Russia’s physical control over the ZNPP to try to force international organizations to legitimize Russia's occupation of the ZNPP and by extension Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory.[9] Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which facilitated limited agricultural exports from Ukrainian ports, in July 2023 and has since routinely targeted Ukrainian ports and agricultural infrastructure in southern Ukraine in an effort to constrain Ukraine's ability to provide grain and other agricultural products to its partners.[10] Russian officials have shown very limited openness to the return of Ukrainian children from Russia and occupied Ukraine to Ukraine through mediation with third parties.[11] The Kremlin and Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian civilians and children from occupied Ukraine, however, and there is no indication that Russia is willing to stop this campaign or return deported and unlawfully displaced Ukrainians back to Ukraine at scale.[12] The Kremlin continues to feign interest in meaningful negotiations with Ukraine in an effort to push the West to make concessions on Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and the Kremlin may use engagement on these more limited issues to pursue similar concessions.[13]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-june-4-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 6:48 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russia-Ukraine War: Negotiating With Putin Now Is a Mistake

By Rajan Menon | June 3, 2024, 4:48 AM

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/06/03/russia-ukraine-peace-kharkiv-zele
nsky-putin-negotiate/

Rajan Menon is the director of the grand strategy program at Defense Priorities, a professor emeritus at the City College of New York’s Colin Powell School for Civic and Global Leadership, and a senior research fellow at Columbia University’s Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. His books include Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post-Cold War Order (co-authored with Eugene Rumer) and, most recently, The Conceit of Humanitarian Intervention.

As the Russian military’s slow advances in Ukraine continue, calls for talks to end the war have become common—some made by well-regarded foreign-policy specialists. Their ideas are neither prudent nor persuasive, but they should be examined in good faith rather than dismissed as appeasement.

As the Russian military’s slow advances in Ukraine continue, calls for talks to end the war have become common—some made by well-regarded foreign-policy specialists. Their ideas are neither prudent nor persuasive, but they should be examined in good faith rather than dismissed as appeasement.

Those urging negotiations rightly note that U.S. assistance to Ukraine on the level of the latest tranche—some $61 billion for military, economic, and humanitarian purposes—will not continue forever. Sending Ukraine another hefty sum next year will prove an even tougher sell, even if Joe Biden remains president; and if Donald Trump wins, he may end support altogether.

Still, the most recent U.S. aid package, along with the military assistance from various European countries, will enable Ukraine to fight into the next year—nearly half as long as the war has now lasted. Given this war’s twists and turns, the possibility that Kyiv could use it to rebound, while not certain, cannot be ruled out.

We can predict neither what that length of time will be nor the difference the newest batch of Western weaponry will make. Yet it’s important to keep in mind that it has now begun arriving, with the artillery and long-range version of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) already in use.

Some claim that the best Ukraine can hope for is a deal that includes its partition. Even assuming this prognosis proves true, the nature and extent of a partition matters: There are worse and better variants. Ukraine’s ability to negotiate a postwar settlement that it can live with depends on its military performance over the next 18 months or so. In other words, negotiating from a position of strength matters.

Those proposing talks between Kyiv and Moscow tend to believe that Ukraine cannot possibly achieve anything resembling victory (such as regaining large tracts of territory now under Russian occupation); that the calendar favors Russia; and that Ukraine’s continued armed resistance will only produce more death, destruction, and territorial losses, which it can avert by reaching a settlement—soon. The war has taken an enormous toll, as I have seen firsthand during four visits to Ukraine, so the desire to end it is understandable.

Despite their good intentions, the “negotiate now” camp skirts a critical question: Who will (or should) initiate the talks? One possible answer: the United States, Ukraine’s principal supplier of weaponry—perhaps even over Kyiv’s head. But there’s virtually no chance of that happening so long as Biden remains president: Nothing he or members of his foreign-policy and national security teams have said or done suggests they plan to strong-arm Kyiv into a settlement with Moscow. The $42 billion in military assistance—part of the latest installment of American aid—is meant to keep Ukraine in the fight and will, into 2025, even if Trump wins in November.

Perhaps those advocating negotiations expect that Kyiv will conclude that continuing to fight will produce an even worse outcome and, moved by that logic, seek a compromise with Moscow. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hasn’t indicated the slightest inclination to take this step—not since the failure of the talks held in Belarus and Turkey soon after the invasion.

His goal remains retaking all lands lost to Russia since 2014—Crimea included. This objective isn’t written in stone and could change if the facts on the ground do, but so far it has not. One can dismiss it as outlandish, but what matters is that it persists.

Maybe those who recommend negotiations anticipate that Ukrainians’ war weariness will impel Zelensky to bargain with Russia. That’s possible, but for now Ukraine’s citizenry opposes a deal with Moscow at least as much as its leaders do—it’s common to be told by ordinary Ukrainians that Russian President Vladimir Putin can’t be trusted to honor the terms of a settlement. As proof, many point to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which included a pledge by Russia, one of the signatories, to respect Ukraine’s borders.

I have repeatedly asked various Ukrainians—bartenders and hotel clerks, former and current officials, soldiers on the front lines—whether the war had produced privations that were so painful that they had concluded, reluctantly, that it was time for a settlement with Russia.

Not one person said yes. Indeed, the greater the firepower Putin directs at Ukraine, the greater Ukrainians’ hatred of Russia becomes, and with it their resolve to keep resisting. Yes, there is draft evasion in Ukraine—some of it owes to the monthslong but now-resolved uncertainty about future U.S. military aid and the Ukrainian military’s subsequent shortage of critical equipment—but society at large isn’t ready to throw in the towel.

The proponents of a deal with Putin seem confident that they can divine the war’s denouement: a Russian victory—say control of Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—and Ukraine’s subordination. Yet such surefire assertions lack an evidentiary foundation. No one can be sure how this war will end, and forecasters should be humbler given that just about every prediction thus far has proved to be incorrect.

Consider some examples.

U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, anticipated some three weeks before the invasion that Putin’s army would capture Kyiv “within 72 hours”—only to claim a year later that Russia had lost “strategically, operationally, and tactically.” Both claims missed the mark.

Early in the war, it was common to hear that Ukraine lacked the muscle to reclaim the areas the Russians had overrun by mid-2022. By year’s end, however, Ukrainian forces had expelled them from the north and northeast and in the south from the right bank of the Dnipro in Kherson province, regaining in all more than half the territory it had lost since the war began.

The failure of Ukraine’s summer-fall 2023 counteroffensive seemed to vindicate the prophets of doom, but Russia’s net gains last fall amounted to 188 square miles, just over half the land area of New York City.

Last October, a small band of Ukrainian marines forded the Dnipro River and created a bridgehead at Krynky, on its Russian-controlled bank, in Kherson province. The New York Times reported that one of them called the operation a “suicide mission.” The Times painted a pessimistic picture. Yet the Ukrainians expanded that foothold. Repeated Russian attempts to storm it failed and led to significant casualties and equipment losses and criticism from pro-war military bloggers in Russia. Two Russian generals were replaced—one soon after the Ukrainians ensconced themselves in Krynky, the other, amid mounting losses, in mid-April. The Ukrainians did evacuate Krynky that month but dug in elsewhere on the river’s Russian-held left bank.

But wait, some might say: Ukraine has been in deep trouble since Russia, having captured Avdiivka this February, has continued pushing westward—and now threatens areas north and northeast of Kharkiv city. But these successes owe to Ukraine’s monthslong, dire shortage of equipment—above all artillery. Russia had a 5:1 advantage in artillery shells by March, and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, head of U.S. European Command, warned the following month that the margin of Russia’s superiority could double “in a matter of weeks.”

That has happened in some places, and Ukrainian soldiers have struggled to hold their ground, let alone counterattack, especially because the Russians vastly outnumber them.

Yet there has been nothing resembling a collapse of Ukraine’s front line or large-scale Russian breakthroughs. The speculation that Russia might retake Kharkiv city—which lies just over 30 miles from the Russian border—doesn’t take into account that Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, encompasses 135 square miles. In the adjacent provinces—Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk—Russia has amassed some 30,000 troops; but it would need a substantially larger force to control Kharkiv, which has a population of 1.4 million. Plus, urban warfare, a particularly bloody business, gives defenders all manner of advantages over attacking infantry.

The calls for peace talks have another defect. They enumerate the problems faced by Ukraine’s armed forces—there are plenty to point to—but omit any mention of Russia’s, which I have discussed elsewhere. https://unherd.com/2024/02/how-europe-can-lead-ukraine-to-victory/

Geolocated data show that Russa has lost nearly 16,000 pieces of equipment, including more than 3,000 tanks as well as over 5,000 armored personnel carriers, armored fighting vehicles, and infantry fighting vehicles. Plus, a third of its Black Sea Fleet’s ships and submarines have been damaged or destroyed. There’s been much debate about casualty figures in this war. The U.K. Ministry of Defense reckons that Russia’s total is 465,000 dead and injured soldiers. Yet even if the true number is only one-third of that, Russia’s losses, against a far weaker adversary, have still been substantial.

Does it follow that Ukraine lacks serious problems and will surely win? No and no. It does mean, though, that confident, linear projections declaring that Russia has become a juggernaut and that Ukraine should therefore sue for peace soon are questionable.

A major flaw in the pro-negotiation camp’s reasoning is the proposed timing. Many proponents of peace talks want them to begin soon, some as early as this summer—about a month from now. But the United States and its European allies have just started delivering tens of billions of dollars’ worth of armaments to Ukraine and won’t be finished by the beginning of fall. It would be foolish to rush into negotiations before seeing what difference the infusion of additional weaponry will make, whether Russia’s military can sustain its current tempo once Ukraine has more firepower, and how successful Ukraine’s draft proves to be.

If Ukraine, bolstered by additional troops and weaponry, claws back more territory—even if the gains fall well short of Zelensky’s ambitious aims—and Putin realizes that his army won’t be able to make additional gains, Ukraine will have greater leverage than it does now to shape a political settlement.

There’s another problem with the calls for negotiations: They assume that Putin wants them. But does he? Russia’s defense budget increased by almost 70 percent this year. As a proportion of Russian GDP it will reach 6 percent, compared to 3.9 percent last year. Nearly a third of the federal budget will support defense spending, compared to 16 percent in 2023. These aren’t the actions of a leader eager to negotiate.

And nothing Putin has said suggests otherwise. Last December, at his customary year-end marathon news conference during which he fielded questions from the media and the Russian public, he stated that the mission of the “special military operation”—Moscow has since begun to call it a war—remained unchanged: Ukraine’s de-Nazification, demilitarization, and neutrality, meaning ending its quest to enter NATO.

In September 2022, following a bogus referendum, Putin announced that four Ukrainian provinces—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—were irrevocably part of the Russian Federation. That remains unfinished business; only Luhansk is more or less fully under Russian control.

Bearing in mind the hazards of prediction, and assuming that Zelensky’s goals could prove unattainable, one can envision this war ending in at least one of three ways.

1. The Russian military takes even more land, the West succumbs to Ukraine fatigue, and Putin imposes a punitive peace on Kyiv: Parts of Ukraine become Russian territory, and the remainder, while retaining independence, reenters Moscow’s orbit.

2. Despite intense efforts, Russia controls less Ukrainian territory than it does now, Putin recognizes that his army cannot do any better and may lose more land, a political settlement follows, and Ukraine eventually joins the EU and NATO, with the proviso that Kyiv will not permit NATO bases or the permanent presence of foreign troops on its soil.

3. The war becomes a stalemate, which both adversaries conclude cannot be broken, but Putin has enough leverage to ensure Ukraine’s neutrality. Kyiv uses its own bargaining power to insist on armed neutrality, which would give it the freedom to train its armed forces in Western countries, equip its army with Western weaponry, and thus remain outside Russia’s sphere of influence.

While other scenarios are certainly possible, these, save the first, share a commonality: They require that Ukraine boost its bargaining power by ending Russia’s momentum, mounting its own counteroffensive, and retaking more territory.

This will require time, which Ukraine now has: Western arms have just started reaching the front, and their volume will increase in the coming months. Russia and Ukraine may eventually hold talks on a political settlement. But now is not the time to initiate them.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 7:46 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


With Ukraine’s resources, Putin would be unstoppable

The impact of an engorged Russia would unfurl over decades, touching every corner of the earth, and wreaking havoc on the global economy

By Liliane Bivings | 2 June 2024 • 1:00pm

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/02/with-ukraines-resources-pu
tin-would-be-invincible/

Wouldn’t it be easier to just give up Ukraine to Russia? That way the war could end and peace would ensue, some believe.

Doing so would grant the Kremlin a frightening gift. I don’t mean the political victory in Russia, or even the military triumph of reaching the EU’s borders. I’m talking about everything that Moscow will come to possess if it is allowed to take full control of its neighbour.

Capturing Ukraine would enrich Russia tremendously. This new, richer and more powerful Kremlin would be well-equipped for future aggression and economic blackmail of the West. Russia’s gas blackmail in the wake of the full-scale invasion is a good indicator of what’s to come if Putin gets his way.

The shock waves of Russia gaining total control of Ukraine wouldn’t just be felt in the immediate aftermath. They would unfurl over years and decades, touching every corner of the earth, and wreaking havoc on the global economy as we know it.

Let’s look at the short-term first. The immediate impact if Russia came to dominate all of Ukraine would go something like this: Russia takes full control over the country’s Black Sea Ports, through which grain capable of feeding 400 million people is exported. (When Russia launched its invasion, it blocked these very ports, provoking alarm that the most vulnerable on our planet would face famine and starvation).

All of the grain harvested by Ukrainian farmers and slated to be sent out of those ports would now belong to Russia. The Kremlin could take it for itself or send it to its allies. It has already sent stolen grain from occupied territories to its friends around the world.

Don’t support Russia’s complete occupation of Ukraine? Get in line or watch as your people suffer from a lack of food. Russia would find other willing markets for the grain.

Another consequence of a seized Ukraine is that Russia would have full access to the military-industrial complex Ukraine has been building up over the last more than two years. No, not just the Western weapons Ukraine’s detractors criticise, but the impressive weapons Ukraine itself has been developing. Its 200 or so domestic drone companies that have revolutionised the battlefield, its homegrown Bohdana howitzer, its sea drones that have devastated Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and all of the other tightly held state technological secrets that help Ukraine fight Russia.

All of that would belong to Russia – who, since they have captured Ukraine, are literally at the gates of the EU. Russia and its cronies could sell the weapons and their parts to nefarious actors around the world. And if they felt like using it against Nato, they have that option too.

Oh, and all of the Western assets in Ukraine? They too would now belong to Russia. There is little reason to believe that Putin would respect the property of Western companies, many of whom exited Russia and have thrown their support behind Ukraine.

Just look at the asset seizure threats the Kremlin is making against Western companies still operating in Russia if the West seizes Russia’s frozen Central Bank assets.

Putin would have access to the assets of Ukraine’s domestic agricultural and steel giants’ – Ukraine is the 20th largest steel producer in the world. Along with the Western companies’ assets, his loyal servants would have their pick of the spoils of war. There is a line of brand-new oligarchs in Russia waiting to be paid back for their loyalty in propping up the Kremlin’s war machine, as Putin has initiated a new strategy of “de-privatisation”, seizing assets across all important sectors of the economy.

“The project is intended to redistribute wealth to a new generation of less powerful individuals – and shore up the president’s own position after the shock of the (Yevgeniy) Prigozhin mutiny and the failure to prevail in the country’s war on Ukraine,” in the words of Chatham House consulting fellow Nikolai Petrov.

In short: if anyone has any illusions they could keep on trucking in Putin’s Ukraine by making concessions to the Kremlin, good luck – his guys are just waiting to divvy up Ukrainian and Western assets.

Ports, check. Grain, check. The military-industrial complex and the demilitarisation of Ukraine, check. Physical assets, check. On to Ukraine’s vast and rich natural resources, which would now also belong to Russia and will be of global strategic importance for decades to come.

Ukraine has vast deposits of critical minerals that are needed for everything from high-tech consumer goods like cell phones and hard drives, and necessary components in green technologies like wind turbines and other renewable energy applications. Indeed, the country has 117 out of 120 of the world’s most commercially used industrial minerals and more than half of the raw materials identified by the EU as critical.

For instance, Ukraine possesses an estimated 500,000 tonnes of lithium reserves, according to Ukrainian researchers – the largest in Europe – which is a critical component of electric vehicles. The start of lithium mining was interrupted due to the war. Russia would now have a totally untapped resource to enjoy.

The World Bank estimates that demand for critical minerals could increase 500 per cent by 2050 in large part due to the move toward low-carbon economies. To reach its green transition goals, the EU will be a big driver of this demand, and without Ukraine, it would be hard-pressed to source these minerals.

Worried about Russia and the Kremlin-friendly China, one of the world’s largest producers of critical minerals, having an upper hand in the race for these desperately needed minerals? They just got a huge start.

A victorious Russia, already an energy giant, is also now sitting on Ukraine’s massive gas reserves and four nuclear power plants. It has already occupied the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, since the start of the full-scale invasion, with Russian forces militarising it and threatening Europe’s nuclear safety for more than two years now.

The electricity sharing that goes on between Ukraine and Europe since the grids were connected in 2022? Those would also be in Russia’s hands.

And then, most importantly, there’s Ukraine’s population: an important source of human capital that would now be subservient to Russia. If they haven’t been killed by the war, those who have stayed will become increasingly isolated from a world they have grown accustomed to working with since the Euromaidan Revolution when Ukraine turned westward.

You thought 2022 was a refugee crisis? With the vast majority of Ukrainians wanting absolutely nothing to do with Russia, many of them will flee to the West now that Russia has taken control of the whole country.

Nearly six million refugees fled Ukraine after the start of the full-scale invasion, according to UN figures. Current estimates put Ukraine’s population at anywhere between 30-40 million. Millions, if not tens of millions, of those people will try to leave. I hardly need to tell you what kind of pressure such an influx of refugees would put on states and economies.

Giving up on Ukraine would be giving Russia a gift of epic proportions: a depopulated agricultural bastion replete with some of the world’s most coveted resources.

Each delay in aid, each kilometre gained by Russia on the battlefield in its push westward, brings the Kremlin closer to that ultimate reward.

Liliane Bivings is Business Editor at the Kyiv Independent.

She has contributed to the Telegraph’s daily podcast ‘Ukraine: The Latest’, your go-to source for all the latest analysis, live reaction and correspondents reporting on the ground. With over 85 million downloads, it is considered the most trusted daily source of war news on both sides of the Atlantic.

Other essays in the ‘What If Putin Wins?’ series:

• ‘Putin’s plot to destroy Nato is reaching its devastating climax’ by Aliona Hlivco
• ‘Europe’s fascist future awaits’ by Dr Thomas Clausen
• ‘If Russia wins, expect the worst genocide since the Holocaust’ by Karolina Hird
• ‘Putin’s next conquests are already in his sights’ by Ivana Stradner
• China will be the biggest beneficiary of a Russian victory by Matthew Henderson
• The West may not survive a Putin victory by Francis Dearnley

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 8:34 AM

THG


Putin has an agenda that he will not vary from. He will do and say anything that helps him achieve his agenda. He has to lose. Nothing else will end this.

T

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 8:52 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Putin has an agenda that he will not vary from. He will do and say anything that helps him achieve his agenda. He has to lose. Nothing else will end this.

T
As a shortcut to discussing Russia's failures, blaming everything on the country's leader is a practical way to think about bad behavior but it is kind of like vilifying Trump. I know his Trumptards in Texas are nasty, cruel, and stupid. They are actually worse people than Trump is. Trump is more like a spokesman for the angry poor white trash of America than their leader. Perhaps Putin is the same, but a Russian version of Trump speaking about the innermost drives that make his kind of Russians (about a third of all Russians) act like crazed would-be murderers, thieves, and drunkards constantly threatening to nuke the world. It is not at all surprising that Russians are poor compared to Europeans since Russians have bats flying around in their heads. It is also not surprising that Trumptards are poor compared to anti-Trumptards and for the same reason.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 2:43 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


US and Western military assistance to the country has followed a pattern.

1) Kyiv asks for a particular weapons system or capability.

2) Washington declines due to concerns about raising the risk of escalation with Russia.

3) Vladimir Putin then makes vague threats involving his nuclear arsenal.

4) Ukraine’s advocates respond by spending months making their case in the media.

5) One or several European allies come around to giving the Ukrainians what they want.

6) Eventually the US does as well.

This is what happened with providing Ukraine with battle tanks, Patriot air defense systems, F-16 fighter jets, and long-range ATACMS, among other systems.

Given that the US has time and again defied Putin’s threat to nuke the US over the past two years without provoking any major retaliation from Russia, it raises perhaps the most high-stakes question of the entire conflict: Is the Russian leader truly bluffing with his apocalyptic threats, or are we really at risk of blindly passing a point of no return?

Last week, Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, called for the administration to “abandon its ‘drip-drip-drip’ policies and embrace my mantra of ‘more, better, and faster’ to arming Ukraine.” (Wicker’s statement did not mention the nearly half-year delay in aid to Ukraine caused by opposition from House Republicans.)

For now, however, the drip-drip seems likely to continue.

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/353796/us-weapons-ukraine-russia-pu
tin-escalation-nuclear

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 4:12 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
How many gigatons are carbon capture plants going to absorb?
0.00000001?

Meanwhile in the USA
Quote:
Coal-to-gas switching was the largest driver behind emissions reduction in the US electricity sector.


Gee, too bad Europe's going in the other direction.

SECOND: Humans have generated an estimated 1.5 trillion tons of CO2.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/carbon-dioxide-now-more-than-50-high
er-than-pre-industrial-levels
Nature won't handle 1.5 trillion. Either humanity does the job or it will die from climate change.

Yes, humans have to do something.
But what?As the saying goes
'SOMETHING MUST BE DONE!'
And so, 'something' was done.

*****

Starting from the top:
The world emitted 37.4 Gt in 2023

Of that, the USA was responsible for
4.8 Gt.
(Since China was responsible for a large part of the total, maybe we should invest in more energy efficient manufacturing at home. Bc exporting our CO2 emissions doesn't help. Just saying.)

Of USA emissions,

TRANSPORTATION
Appx 1.9 Gt was transportation, and appx 60% (1.14 Gt) was passenger vehicles. The average fuel efficiency of the 2020 fleet was a miserable (IMHO) 25.4 mpg. Since Americans love their SUVs, vans, and pickup trucks, restricting the weights if vehicles sold would improve fleet averages significantly. Im not sure how much, but let's say we could raise the mpg to 30. Over time, it would reduce emissions by about
0.2 Gt. reduction
( Don't forget, EVs are NOT emissions -free! They depend on power generated elsewhere. See next)

And what about the other 40%?

POWER GENERATION
The other big ticket item is power generation, appx 1.8 Gt.
Of that, appx 0.8 Gt is nat gas,
Appx 1 Gt is coal.
The biggest reduction so far has come from coal to nat gas conversion.
Since nat gas emits half of the CO2 of coal, completing the conversion would save about
0.5 Gt reduction

DOD
Doesn't report on it's emissions. But since the DoD budget (plus ancillary appropriations) makes up about 5% of GDP, I estimate it makes up at least 5% of CO2 emissions, or about 0.24 Gt. A 90% reduction would mean appx
0.2 Gt reduction

COVER CROPPING
0.17-0.35 (avg 0.25 Gt) reduction

PREVENTING MEGA FOREST FIRES
1.8 Gt released by forest fires across boreal northern hemisphere in 2021
If 1/5 of that from USA, preventing mega fire would cause appx
0.4 Gt reduction
And preserve carbon- absorbing forestd

I haven't even gotten to addressing other forms of transportation, urban cooling, and intensively managed grazing.

1.55Gt reduced or absorbed, an appx 30% reduction without high tech.

I also think solar can help, across much of our south, altho it only makes up about 3% of generated power
Some transmission lines are only 90% efficient. Big loss there!
Wind is a larger part of our power generation than most people expect, but I'm not sure there are many more windy areas to use. Also, it's inconsistent, like solar. Needs fuel- generated power if only as backup.

This is low hanging fruit. The thing that gets in the way isn't technology, it's policy and money.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48296
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58861#_idTextAnchor000
https://www.statista.com/topics/6480/transport-emissions-in-the-us/#to
picOverview
https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon/pdf/2023_Emissions_Re
port.pdf
https://news.uci.edu/2023/03/02/wildfires-in-2021-emitted-a-record-bre
aking-amount-of-carbon-dioxide/
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-report-us-cars-achieve-record-hig
h-fuel-economy-and-low-emission-levels-companies
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/climate/carbon-capture-power-plants
.html



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 6:53 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


On a Train in Southern Russia, Fatigued Soldiers See No End in Sight to War

June 4, 2024

The soldiers describe the front line as hell on earth. The losses on the Russian side are enormous: hundreds each day, some of the men say. Drones sow death from the sky, finishing off wounded soldiers on the battlefield where they lay.

Dima always keeps a grenade hanging from his belt. He would rather blow himself up than be captured and face torture.

“Many young guys I knew are dead, they weren’t even 30,” says Yegor, a family man from the republic of Tatarstan, in one of the passenger compartments.

He was called up to fight during the “partial” mobilization of 2022. “Only a few among us who were mobilized are left,” he says.

More at https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/06/03/on-a-train-in-southern-russi
a-fatigued-soldiers-see-no-end-in-sight-to-war-a85283

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 6:58 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

I also think solar can help, across much of our south, altho it only makes up about 3% of generated power
How many square miles of solar panels to power the US?

22,000 square miles.
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+many+square+miles+of+solar+panels+
to+power+the+us

The contiguous United States has an area of roughly 3,119,884 square miles and the State of Alaska has an area of 586,412 square miles.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 7:26 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

I also think solar can help, across much of our south, altho it only makes up about 3% of generated power
How many square miles of solar panels to power the US?

22,000 square miles.
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+many+square+miles+of+solar+panels+
to+power+the+us

The contiguous United States has an area of roughly 3,119,884 square miles and the State of Alaska has an area of 586,412 square miles.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
Solar on rooftops and carports, dummy.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 7:31 PM

THG


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

I also think solar can help, across much of our south, altho it only makes up about 3% of generated power
How many square miles of solar panels to power the US?

22,000 square miles.
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+many+square+miles+of+solar+panels+
to+power+the+us

The contiguous United States has an area of roughly 3,119,884 square miles and the State of Alaska has an area of 586,412 square miles.

Solar on rooftops and carports, dummy.





T



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 8:19 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Solar on rooftops and carports, dummy.
I see why Russians and you have so many unsolved problems. Both can't imagine solutions beyond killing Ukrainians, stealing their land, and making the survivors slaves for one and "Solar on rooftops and carports" for the other.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, June 6, 2024 1:53 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Solar on rooftops and carports, dummy.


SECOND: I see why Russians and you have so many unsolved problems. Both can't imagine solutions beyond killing Ukrainians, stealing their land, and making the survivors slaves for one and "Solar on rooftops and carports" for the other.

I've come up with a dozen solutions.


*****

Hey SECOND, you (pretend to) care so much for the earth. How do you feel about nuclear Armageddon?


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, June 6, 2024 2:49 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


What Second still hasn't realized is that nobody gives one single shit about Russia or Ukraine.

That may not have been true among a few million Americans that are extremely susceptible to being propagandized when I first started saying it, but it certainly is by June of 2024.

NOBODY GIVES ONE SINGLE FUCK ABOUT RUSSIA OR UKRAINE.

Get a fuckin' life, Second.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, June 6, 2024 6:40 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Solar on rooftops and carports, dummy.


SECOND: I see why Russians and you have so many unsolved problems. Both can't imagine solutions beyond killing Ukrainians, stealing their land, and making the survivors slaves for one and "Solar on rooftops and carports" for the other.

I've come up with a dozen solutions.


*****

Hey SECOND, you (pretend to) care so much for the earth. How do you feel about nuclear Armageddon?
Signym, all your solutions are of a single kind: Let Russia win. Let Trump win. As a principle of governing, let the mentally ill make the decisions because Signym and 6ix are not getting all that they want from America's present government.

Meanwhile, Russia is not mentally healthy enough to stop making death threats:

Russia declares World War 3 in terrifying broadcast

Vladimir Solovyov, a state TV host and one of the most well-known figures in Kremlin-backed media, made the remarks on the Russia-1 channel

By Emily Hodgkin | 16:03 ET, JUN 5 2024

https://www.irishstar.com/news/us-news/russia-declares-world-war-3-329
69639

A prominent ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared on state television that World War III is already in progress. Speaking on the Russia-1 channel, Vladimir Solovyov, a well-known Kremlin-backed media personality, made the statement.

On national television, he chillingly warned: "You want World War III? You are already in it!"

It comes amid mounting tensions, as it's claimed Vladimir Putin has a "non-suicidal nuclear plan" to defeat the West.

In his most recent outburst, the propagandist reiterated calls for strikes on military sites in NATO countries, following some members' approval for Ukraine to use their supplied weapons to target locations within Russia.

"In addition, since we realise that the task is set and is ongoing, there is no plan B; the destruction of Russia, it means we must create all conditions for inflicting colossal damage to the manpower and equipment of NATO troops stationed anywhere in the world," Solovyov said.

"This means we must support all proxy movements, supplying them with everything they need, no matter where in the world they are located," he added.

Russia must "cause so much trouble for these countries that they have the least amount of attention and time to work with us," Solovyov said.

"Military plants and warehouses throughout NATO territory should be blown up if they produce and house equipment designed to strike Russia."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, June 6, 2024 6:56 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian missile and drone strikes have caused significant long-term damage to Ukraine's energy grid, and Ukraine will reportedly face even greater energy constraints in summer 2024. The Financial Times (FT) reported on June 5 that Russia has knocked out or captured over half of Ukraine's power generation capacity, bringing Ukrainian energy production to below 20 gigawatts (likely meaning per year) from 55 gigawatts per year before the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.[10] European Union (EU) Ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Matherovna told FT that Russia has destroyed 9.2 gigawatts of annual Ukrainian generation capacity since resuming large scale missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in late March 2024.[11] A Ukrainian official told FT that Russian forces damaged 1.2 gigawatts of annual Ukrainian generation capacity alone during strikes against energy infrastructure on the night of May 31 to June 1.[12]

Ukrainian state electricity transmission operator Ukrenergo stated on June 5 that it expects the Ukrainian energy system to face its most difficult period in the middle of summer 2024 as energy consumption increases due to the heat.[13]

The Russian military has attempted to exploit degraded Ukrainian air defense capabilities in spring 2024 to collapse Ukraine's energy grid and constrain Ukraine's defense industrial capacity.[14] Russia will likely continue periodic large-scale strikes against energy infrastructure to cause significant long-term damage that degrades Ukrainian war fighting capabilities while setting conditions for pronounced humanitarian pressures in winter 2024–2025.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-june-5-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, June 6, 2024 7:36 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The US has a public list of military deaths. Russia does not, which is why Putin can lie about deaths:

MILITARY OPERATION IN UKRAINE -- 5 JUN, 14:51

Ukraine’s irretrievable losses five-times higher than Russia’s, Putin says

According to him, this is the reason behind attempts to carry out an all-out mobilization campaign in Ukraine

ST. PETERSBURG, June 5. /TASS/. Kiev’s irretrievable losses in the course of the special military operation is five-times higher than Moscow’s, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a TASS-hosted meeting with the heads of international news agencies.

"I can tell you that our losses, particularly irretrievable losses, are certainly significantly smaller than those of the opposite party," he noted.

"As for irretrievable losses, the ratio is one to five," Putin specified. According to him, this is the reason behind attempts to carry out an all-out mobilization campaign in Ukraine.

https://tass.com/defense/1799015

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, June 6, 2024 12:37 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Solar on rooftops and carports, dummy.


SECOND: I see why Russians and you have so many unsolved problems. Both can't imagine solutions beyond killing Ukrainians, stealing their land, and making the survivors slaves for one and "Solar on rooftops and carports" for the other.

SIGNY: I've come up with a dozen solutions.
*****
Hey SECOND, you (pretend to) care so much for the earth. How do you feel about nuclear Armageddon?

SECOND: Signym, all your solutions are of a single kind: Let Russia win. Let Trump win. As a principle of governing, let the mentally ill make the decisions because Signym and 6ix are not getting all that they want from America's present government.


a) The west CAN'T win. We can't win this conventional war (which BTW WE started) and nobody wins in a nuclear war.

The whole issue for Putin is NATO EXPANSION TO RUSSIA'S BORDERS AND NEAR ABROAD SECURITY.

If we had not...

Broken most if our nuclear treaties with Russia
Placed nuclear capable missile installations in Poland and Romania

Insisted on Ukraine in NATO...
Stoked a coup ...
Diddled Russian for YEARS with the Minsk agreements ...
While we armed Ukraine to the teeth (and bragged about it afterwards) ...
Forced Ukraine to reneg on the draft peace agreement, initialed in Turkey, 2022 ...
Pushed Ukraine into a cage match/ fight to their death...

STRUCK THREE OF RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC NUCLEAR EARLY WARNING RADAR SYSTEMS (Ukraine pushed the buttons but WE provided the targeting)...

My jaw dropped when I read that.
Yours should have, too.
That bullshit about a "rogue" Zelensky is just that: bullshit.
THAT was an act of NATO's strategic war on Russia.

You think Russia was gonna let that slide???

At the very least, Russia could enforce an unannounced no-fly zone over the Black Sea.

Quote:
Meanwhile, Russia is not mentally healthy enough to stop making death threats:


Yeah.
Bc placing nuclear- capable missile installations on Russia's border and striking at three early warning installations isn't a death threat???? /snark

b) Speaking of insanity....

We've been preparing for war on Russia for years.
Your lack of insight... it's terrifying. Not bc YOU'RE terrifying, but bc you represent current WH insanity.

The issue for Russia is near abroad security. They have been telling us since 2007. Address that, and everything else goes away.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, June 6, 2024 5:53 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

a) The west CAN'T win. We can't win this conventional war (which BTW WE started) and nobody wins in a nuclear war.
Are Putin’s Nuclear Threats Working?
A new book examines the past and present of Russian thinking on deterrence.

By Matthew Kroenig, a columnist at Foreign Policy and vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

June 4, 2024, 12:35 PM

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/06/04/putin-nuclear-threats-russia-dete
rrence-strategy/

In The Russian Way of Deterrence, Dima Adamsky has written the authoritative account of how Russia thinks about strategic deterrence. (Download the free book from mirrors at https://libgen.is//search.php?req=The+Russian+Way+of+Deterrence )

Adamsky is a Soviet-born scholar based in Israel. As one of the leading analysts of Russian defense policy, his insights are sought out around the world, including by the Pentagon. The central theoretical argument of the book is that the United States must tailor its understanding of adversaries’ deterrence strategies.

It has become commonplace in the strategic deterrence community to argue that Washington should “tailor” its deterrence strategies. In other words, the best way to deter China from invading Taiwan might be different from how one should go about deterring Russia from attacking Estonia. They are different countries with different values, goals, and risk tolerances. Threats that might deter one country, for example, might provoke another. Deterrence is not one-size-fits-all.

Similarly, Adamsky argues that analysts should also tailor their understanding of how adversaries go about trying to deter and coerce the United States. Simply “mirror imaging” and assuming that Moscow and Beijing think about deterrence in the same way that Washington does would be a mistake, and it could lead to potentially disastrous outcomes when the West misreads the signals that its adversaries are trying to send.

For example, one side might think that placing nuclear weapons on alert is a deterrent signal meant to de-escalate a conflict, but an adversary might miss the signal altogether if it is too subtle—or worse, mistake the preparations for an impending nuclear attack and strike first, resulting in catastrophe.

In his new book, Adamsky provides us an extended example by presenting a tailored understanding of Russian deterrence strategy.

He begins by noting that deterrence theory was not part of Soviet thinking during the Cold War. This is a fact known by specialists, but it may come as a surprise to a wider audience. In the United States, scholars and strategists—such as Thomas Schelling and Herman Kahn—were developing elaborate theories about how the United States could use nuclear threats and limited nuclear war to signal its intentions, climb up and down escalation ladders, deter adversaries, and manage conflict.

Washington made the mistake, however, of mirror imaging. It wrongly assumed that the Soviet Union largely shared these understandings. In fact, Adamsky argues that authorities in Moscow had rejected deterrence theory outright. Soviet military officials conceived of nuclear weapons as large artillery shells. Russian war plans called for large-scale nuclear strikes in Europe at the outset of any hostilities as part of a plan to fight and win a nuclear war.

It was not until after the end of the Cold War that deterrence theory began to catch on in Russia. Facing a fresh strategic problem (how to offset the West’s newfound conventional military superiority), Russian strategists looked to deterrence as the answer. As Adamsky frequently reminds the reader, this means that Russian deterrence theory is five decades younger, and less mature, than its Western variant.

If there were standout intellectual figures in these debates—the equivalent of a Kahn or Schelling in the United States—Adamsky does not identify them by name. He instead credits “Senior and midcareer General Staff and Ministry of Defense (MoD) officers, along with experts from government affiliated think tanks.”

Starting in a different time period and with a different set of problems to address in the post-Cold War era (namely, how to reclaim Russian imperial glory in the face of NATO and its superior conventional military capabilities), Adamsky describes how Russian deterrence theory developed in unique ways. It is more holistic and cross-domain in nature, and it integrates all elements of national power, including ­information operations, conventional military power, and nuclear weapons at the high end of conflict.

While Westerners distinguish between deterrence (defensive threats meant to maintain the status quo) and compellence threats (offensive threats meant to compel an adversary into doing one’s bidding), Russians make no such distinction, often employing the same term—sderzhivanie—for both.

Russian theory blurs the distinction between peacetime and wartime, holding that persistent engagement with the adversary—especially at lower levels, such as information operations—is a necessary part of shaping operations that contribute to a broader strategic deterrence. Like in the West, Russians believe that deterrence is about influencing the calculations of an adversary, but Adamsky argues that Russia places more emphasis on misinformation and disinformation to deceive an adversary into holding a false perception of reality. On this and other arguments, the author could have done more to provide concrete examples to make the conceptual arguments more concrete for readers.

As a nuclear deterrence scholar, I was familiar with these various strands of Russian thinking, but Adamsky pulls them all together in a single, tidy package. Moreover, he goes beyond merely describing Russian strategic thinking and also traces its intellectual roots, from Russia’s Orthodox religious traditions to Cold War military strategy and beyond.

For example, Adamsky attributes Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent public embrace of Russian Orthodox Christianity as part and parcel of Russian deterrence theory. Of course, Putin is no saint, but he has presented himself as a man of faith and tied his aggressive Russian nationalism to the church.

According to Adamsky’s book, Putin’s public religiosity is in part about buttressing Russian strategic deterrence. If he is not a rational actor, but rather a messianic leader on a divinely inspired mission, then perhaps he cannot be deterred by promises and threats of earthly costs and benefits. It is the Western “madman theory” donning a kalimavkion.

Does Russian strategic deterrence theory work in practice? Adamsky assesses that Russia excels at accurately analyzing an enemy, understanding its vulnerabilities, and developing a strategy to exploit weaknesses. He also concludes, however, that while arguably holding a more cohesive and elegant deterrence theory than the West, Russia is often ineffective at putting theory into practice. Adamsky argues that a disconnect between elegant theory and careless execution is an ingrained trait in Russia’s managerial tradition.

Russia’s bungled invasion of Ukraine seems to provide many recent examples of this phenomenon. Recall Moscow’s envisioned lighting strike on Kyiv, which was instead bogged down in a more than 30-mile-long convoy of stalled military vehicles at the outset of the war.

Most important, Adamsky argues, Russia lacks an effective means of analyzing the success of its deterrence strategy, thus often causing the country to overshoot. Actions that Moscow intends to signal as deterrent measures to force the West to back off are instead misperceived by the West as acts of aggression that only provoke the West into further strengthening itself against Russia.

But Adamsky argues that this problem is not limited to Russia, and he asserts that not even the United States has a robust system in place to consistently and accurately measure deterrence success and failure. Just as armies have processes for conducting battle damage assessments after military action, Adamsky recommends that countries put in place a formal process for assessing the effectiveness of their deterrence operations.

The bulk of the manuscript was written before the start of Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but the author added a penultimate chapter offering a preliminary application of his framework to the ongoing conflict.

Adamsky argues that Putin’s peace offering—demanding that the West essentially undo its Cold War victory and grant Russia a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe—on the eve of the war was sincere, and not merely a pretext for invasion. He believes Putin genuinely hoped that the West would agree to renegotiate Europe’s security architecture in Moscow’s favor. As a next step, when that did not work, Putin turned to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Adamsky contends that the invasion was merely the next step in Putin’s elaborate coercive playbook to revise the European security architecture—and not yet evidence that his coercive threats did not work. For Russia, deterrence operations can include the use of military force up to and including nuclear strikes, and whether Putin’s coercive campaign ultimately succeeds or fails will now be determined on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Indeed, Adamsky argues that, by employing nuclear threats and other coercive tools, Russia has so far succeeded in deterring direct Western intervention in Ukraine’s defense. After all, U.S. President Joe Biden and other Western leaders affirm the value of Putin’s nuclear threats every time they cite fears of “escalation” as the reason for restraining their support to Ukraine. Still, Adamsky maintains, Putin has not yet succeeded in his broader attempts to compel Ukraine’s surrender, which remains his primary goal.

Russian troops in Ukraine reportedly committed unspeakable and systematic war crimes in Bucha and elsewhere, but Adamsky argues that intentional victimization of civilians is not part of Russian strategic doctrine. He reasons that the soldiers themselves likely took the initiative in conducting these heinous acts, which were then tolerated by higher-ranking military commanders. This interpretation is consistent with a broader body of academic literature, which finds that civilian victimization in war is generally ineffective and often counterproductive.

The Russian Way of Deterrence is dense and scholarly, and it can be repetitive at times. For nonacademic readers looking to quickly glean the key insights, the conclusion offers a comprehensive summary of the book.

For specialist readers, I highly recommend it—even if it may not make the list when Foreign Policy’s editors ask me to suggest fun beach reads this summer. (Apart from those planning to vacation in coastal Crimea, who would be well advised to pack a copy.)

This book is essential reading for deterrence scholars and strategists as well as anyone who wants to better understand the sources of Russian foreign-policy and military strategy. Adamsky distills a lifetime of learning into this short and rich book, and we can all benefit from his wisdom.

Download the free book from mirrors at https://libgen.is//search.php?req=The+Russian+Way+of+Deterrence

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, June 6, 2024 5:58 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
SECOND: Are Putin’s Nuclear Threats Working?


They prefer that Russia should actually nuke us to demonstrate that they're serious?


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Solar on rooftops and carports, dummy.


SECOND: I see why Russians and you have so many unsolved problems. Both can't imagine solutions beyond killing Ukrainians, stealing their land, and making the survivors slaves for one and "Solar on rooftops and carports" for the other.

SIGNY: I've come up with a dozen solutions.
*****
Hey SECOND, you (pretend to) care so much for the earth. How do you feel about nuclear Armageddon?

SECOND: Signym, all your solutions are of a single kind: Let Russia win. Let Trump win. As a principle of governing, let the mentally ill make the decisions because Signym and 6ix are not getting all that they want from America's present government.


a) The west CAN'T win. We can't win this conventional war (which BTW WE started) and nobody wins in a nuclear war.

The whole issue for Putin is NATO EXPANSION TO RUSSIA'S BORDERS AND NEAR ABROAD SECURITY.

If we had not...

Broken most if our nuclear treaties with Russia
Placed nuclear capable missile installations in Poland and Romania

Insisted on Ukraine in NATO...
Stoked a coup ...
Diddled Russian for YEARS with the Minsk agreements ...
While we armed Ukraine to the teeth (and bragged about it afterwards) ...
Forced Ukraine to reneg on the draft peace agreement, initialed in Turkey, 2022 ...
Pushed Ukraine into a cage match/ fight to their death...

STRUCK THREE OF RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC NUCLEAR EARLY WARNING RADAR SYSTEMS (Ukraine pushed the buttons but WE provided the targeting)...

My jaw dropped when I read that.
Yours should have, too.
That bullshit about a "rogue" Zelensky is just that: bullshit.
THAT was an act of NATO's strategic war on Russia.

You think Russia was gonna let that slide???

At the very least, Russia could enforce an unannounced no-fly zone over the Black Sea.

Quote:
Meanwhile, Russia is not mentally healthy enough to stop making death threats:


Yeah.
Bc placing nuclear- capable missile installations on Russia's border and striking at three early warning installations isn't a death threat???? /snark

b) Speaking of insanity....

We've been preparing for war on Russia for years.
Your lack of insight... it's terrifying. Not bc YOU'RE terrifying, but bc you represent current WH insanity.

The issue for Russia is near abroad security. They have been telling us since 2007. Address that, and everything else goes away.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, June 6, 2024 6:30 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

You think Russia was gonna let that slide???
Signym, repeating yourself is wasting yourself.

Ukraine Will Get Ex-French Mirage 2000-5 Fighters

‘It is an aircraft exclusively dedicated to air defense,’ a French commander said.

Updated Jun 6, 2024, 04:38pm EDT

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/06/06/ukraine-will-get-ex-f
rench-mirage-2000-5-fighters/?sh=61c691f3b332

The timing of the announcement—the 80th anniversary of the Allied invasion of Nazi-occupied France—is no accident. “The moment for peace can only come if Ukraine resists,” Macron said.

Putin has not yet threatened to nuke the planes before France sends them, but I feel confident to predict the threat will be made.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, June 6, 2024 11:34 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:
SECOND: Are Putin’s Nuclear Threats Working?


They prefer that Russia should actually nuke us to demonstrate that they're serious?


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Solar on rooftops and carports, dummy.


SECOND: I see why Russians and you have so many unsolved problems. Both can't imagine solutions beyond killing Ukrainians, stealing their land, and making the survivors slaves for one and "Solar on rooftops and carports" for the other.

SIGNY: I've come up with a dozen solutions.
*****
Hey SECOND, you (pretend to) care so much for the earth. How do you feel about nuclear Armageddon?

SECOND: Signym, all your solutions are of a single kind: Let Russia win. Let Trump win. As a principle of governing, let the mentally ill make the decisions because Signym and 6ix are not getting all that they want from America's present government.


a) The west CAN'T win. We can't win this conventional war (which BTW WE started) and nobody wins in a nuclear war.

The whole issue for Putin is NATO EXPANSION TO RUSSIA'S BORDERS AND NEAR ABROAD SECURITY.

If we had not...

Broken most if our nuclear treaties with Russia
Placed nuclear capable missile installations in Poland and Romania

Insisted on Ukraine in NATO...
Stoked a coup ...
Diddled Russian for YEARS with the Minsk agreements ...
While we armed Ukraine to the teeth (and bragged about it afterwards) ...
Forced Ukraine to reneg on the draft peace agreement, initialed in Turkey, 2022 ...
Pushed Ukraine into a cage match/ fight to their death...

STRUCK THREE OF RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC NUCLEAR EARLY WARNING RADAR SYSTEMS (Ukraine pushed the buttons but WE provided the targeting)...

My jaw dropped when I read that.
Yours should have, too.
That bullshit about a "rogue" Zelensky is just that: bullshit.
THAT was an act of NATO's strategic war on Russia.

You think Russia was gonna let that slide???

At the very least, Russia could enforce an unannounced no-fly zone over the Black Sea.

Quote:
Meanwhile, Russia is not mentally healthy enough to stop making death threats:


Yeah.
Bc placing nuclear- capable missile installations on Russia's border and striking at three early warning installations isn't a death threat???? /snark

b) Speaking of insanity....

We've been preparing for war on Russia for years.
Your lack of insight... it's terrifying. Not bc YOU'RE terrifying, but bc you represent current WH insanity.

The issue for Russia is near abroad security. They have been telling us since 2007. Address that, and everything else goes away.



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

YOUR OPTIONS

NEW POSTS TODAY

USERPOST DATE
second 06.18 06:07
second 06.18 06:21
second 06.18 08:00

OTHER TOPICS

DISCUSSIONS
Long hot summer ... of riots
Tue, June 18, 2024 08:57 - 434 posts
The Education Failure Facts Thread
Tue, June 18, 2024 08:48 - 25 posts
Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
Tue, June 18, 2024 08:00 - 6711 posts
Elections; 2024
Tue, June 18, 2024 07:44 - 2733 posts
The Honeymoon is Over
Tue, June 18, 2024 07:39 - 256 posts
India
Tue, June 18, 2024 07:28 - 100 posts
Impeach46 !! Yet MORE evidence of Joe and Hunter's illegal shenanigans.
Tue, June 18, 2024 07:17 - 53 posts
Who are the worst leaders of the 21st Century...and best?
Tue, June 18, 2024 06:54 - 10 posts
Supreme Court
Tue, June 18, 2024 06:32 - 85 posts
What if Biden wins in 2020?
Tue, June 18, 2024 06:29 - 67 posts
Swaps?? Can Democrats aka DNC save the country the nation by Switching-out Biden?
Tue, June 18, 2024 05:59 - 1 posts
Music II
Tue, June 18, 2024 04:56 - 92 posts
 VIEW MORE TOPICS 

FFF.NET SOCIAL