REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Wednesday, April 2, 2025 07:25
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PAGE 151 of 162

Monday, November 25, 2024 6:58 AM

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Russian forces have significantly increased the tempo of their advances in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka directions since September 1, 2024, having gained at least 1,103 square kilometers in these areas since September 1, 2024. Russian forces, in contrast, only gained 387 square kilometers in all of 2023 due to Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-24-2024


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, November 25, 2024 2:56 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


SHADES OF VIETNAM!

Quote:

US Officials Discussed Giving Nuclear Weapons To Ukraine
Sunday, Nov 24, 2024 - 08:20 PM
Authored by Kyle Anzalone via AntiWar.com,

According to the New York Times, US and European officials have discussed a range of options they believe will deter Russia from taking more Ukrainian territory, including providing Kiev with nuclear weapons. The outlet reports that Western officials believe the Kremlin will not significantly escalate the war before Donald Trump is sworn in as President in January.

Following the election of Trump earlier this month, the US and its NATO allies began taking steps to rush weapons to Ukraine and give Kiev the ability to strike targets inside Russian territory with long-range weapons.

American officials who were briefed on the intelligence community’s assessments told the Times that weapons will not alter the challenging situation that Kiev is currently facing. "US spy agencies have assessed that speeding up the provisions of weapons, ammunition and matériel for Ukraine will do little to change the course of the war in the short term," the Times reports.


Desperate to bolster Ukraine’s standing in the war before the transition of power on January 20, the Biden administration is looking at a range of serious escalations. "US and European officials are discussing deterrence as a possible security guarantee for Ukraine, such as stockpiling a conventional arsenal sufficient to strike a punishing blow if Russia violates a cease-fire."

The article continues, "Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union."



MORE AT https://news.antiwar.com/2024/11/22/report-us-and-european-officials-d
iscussed-giving-ukraine-nuclear-weapons
/. Originally sourced from NYT.

For those too young to remember, similar discussions took place just before our defeat in Vietnam, nuclear weapons were considered under both Johnson and Nixon.

But I brought this up to address YET ANOTHER embedded piece of disinfo

UKRAINE NEVER HAD NUCLEAR WEAPONS. There were nuclear weapons deployed in Ukraine, but they weren't Ukraine's and not under Ukraine's control. Saying that Ukraine had nuclear weapons is like saying that our nuclear weapons in Turkye belong to Turkye.

This is as fundamentally wrong as saying that the USA "allows" Ukraine to fire long(er) range missiles into Russia, when the reality is that Ukrainian technicians literally don't have access to targeting data and programming hardware and software. The ATACMS missiles are being launched by AMERICANS. Storm Shadow (UK), and Scalp (French) missiles also depend on USA targeting and mapping software.

This kind of fundamental disinformation obscures the risks that our neocons are exposing us to.

Oh, BTW, whatever happened to those 3000, 10,000, 30,000 N Korean soldiers in Kursk that served as the excuse for us launching long(er) range missiles into Russia?

They "evaporated", just like Saddam's "WMD".


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Tuesday, November 26, 2024 7:19 AM

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“Russia has set new weekly and monthly records for the size of the occupied territory in Ukraine,” independent Russian newsgroup Agentstvo said in a report.

The Russian army captured almost 235 sq km (91 sq miles) in Ukraine over the past seven days, a weekly record for 2024, it said.

Russian forces had taken 600 sq km (232 sq miles) in November, it added, citing data from DeepState, a group with close links to the Ukrainian army that studies combat footage and provides front line maps.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3288160/russia-advances
-ukraine-fastest-monthly-pace-start-war-analysts


Ukraine Area. • Total. 603,628 km2 (233,062 sq mi)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine

At the swift rate Russia is moving, only a thousand more months or 80 years until all of Ukraine is conquered.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, November 26, 2024 7:46 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Nobody cares.



--------------------------------------------------

Trump is fine.
He is also your current President.

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Wednesday, November 27, 2024 7:38 AM

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The Russian military's rate of advance since Fall 2024 has notably increased recently compared to its rate of advance in 2023 and the rest of 2024, but recent Western media reports comparing recent Russian gains to those at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion continue to mischaracterize the gradual and tactical nature of Russia's recent advances.[4] ISW assesses that Russian forces have gained 574 square kilometers since November 1, 2024 — an average rate of 22 square kilometers per day. This is remarkably less than the 1,265 square kilometers per day that ISW assesses Russian forces were gaining in March 2022. Reuter's November 26 report that Russian forces "control" over 80 percent of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts is also misleading.[5] ISW assesses that while Russian forces occupy roughly 99 percent of Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces only occupy about 66 percent of Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces have occupied almost the entirety of Luhansk Oblast since Fall 2022 but have occupied significantly less territory in Donetsk Oblast throughout the war. ISW recently assessed that Russian forces still need to seize over 8,000 square kilometers of territory to achieve the Kremlin's self-defined objective of seizing the territory of Donetsk Oblast.[6] Russian forces would seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast in roughly one year should Russian forces continue their recent relatively quicker rate of advance — which is not a given. Russian forces notably have been bypassing Ukrainian strongpoints, and Ukraine still has several well-defended cities in Donetsk Oblast, such as Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, that Russian forces likely cannot seize as rapidly as they have with the rural fields near Pokrovsk. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces have not been able to restore operational maneuver to the battlefield to make deep penetrations into Ukrainian positions, as seen in the initial months of the full-scale invasion.[7] Russian forces have instead been exploiting identified vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses to make gradual advances.[8]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-26-2024


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, November 27, 2024 7:39 AM

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How to lose a war: Kyiv pulls back 100,000 mortar rounds after failures

Investigation after troops complained of misfires

Ukraine’s defence ministry is investigating defective mortar shells after at least 100,000 Ukrainian-made 120mm rounds had to be removed from the frontline. Soldiers began saying in early November that the rounds failed to explode, remained stuck in the launcher or fell off target, according to private Ukrainian TV 1+1. The defence ministry confirmed it had stopped using them on the frontline “until the causes of the malfunction are determined” and seized part of the supply. Early findings pointed to poor-quality powder charges or violations of storage requirements, the ministry said. The Ukrainian news site Dzerkalo Tyjnia and the war journalist Yuriy Butusov shared the figure of 100,000 with the latter denouncing “criminal negligence”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/27/ukraine-war-briefing-kyi
v-pulls-back-100000-mortar-rounds-after-failures


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, November 27, 2024 12:47 PM

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The Russians did it using a Chinese ship and bribing the captain:

Rogue Chinese ship cut a pair of Baltic Sea cables last week

https://jabberwocking.com/rogue-chinese-ship-cut-a-pair-of-baltic-sea-
cables-last-week
/

Remember that Chinese bulk carrier suspected of cutting a couple of internet cables in the Baltic Sea? Apparently it's now a pretty open-and-shut case:

Investigators have established that the ship dropped anchor but remained under way in Swedish waters on Nov. 17 at around 9 p.m. local time. The dragging anchor cut the first cable between Sweden and Lithuania shortly afterward, according to two people familiar with the investigation.

During that time, the ship’s transponder, which charts its movements on the so-called Automatic Identification System, shut down in what is known as a “dark incident” in marine traffic jargon. The ship then continued even as the dragging anchor greatly reduced its speed, according to satellite and other data reviewed by investigators.

Investigators say that at around 3 a.m. the following day, having traveled about 111 miles, the Yi Peng 3 cut the second cable between Germany and Finland. Shortly afterward, the ship started zigzagging, raised anchor and continued. Danish Navy ships then set out to pursue and intercept the Yi Peng 3, ultimately forcing it to anchor in the Kattegat Strait, which connects the Baltic and the North seas.

The current belief is that China had nothing to with this. It was a rogue captain who was bribed by the Russians to do it. Oddly, although the ship's owner is "cooperating," the captain of the ship hasn't been questioned. Ditto for a Russian sailor onboard.

Oh, and this is the second time this has happened recently:

In October last year, a Chinese-registered vessel called Newnew Polar Bear cut the Baltic connector gas pipeline and a telecommunication cable connecting Finland and Estonia with its anchor, according to people familiar with the investigation into the case. Some officials briefed on the investigation said Russian sailors were aboard the Chinese ship at the time of that incident.

Newnew Polar Bear was allowed to proceed toward Arctic Russia because authorities in Sweden, Denmark and Norway didn’t want to halt the ship without sound legal backing, according to officials.

Sound legal backing or no, the Scandinavians have apparently had enough: "The Chinese bulk carrier is now guarded by a small flotilla of North Atlantic Treaty Organization ships belonging to Denmark, Germany and Sweden."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, November 27, 2024 12:47 PM

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German Defense Chief Suggests Russian Involvement in Lithuania Plane Crash

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/27/german-defense-chief-suggest
s-russian-involvement-in-lithuania-plane-crash-a87146


This week’s deadly DHL cargo plane crash in Lithuania aligns with a pattern of incidents across Europe earlier this year that were attributed to Russia, Germany’s highest-ranking military officer said Wednesday.

Chief of Defense Carsten Breuer suggested that Russia may have been “exploring vulnerabilities” when the aircraft crashed near Vilnius airport on Monday. The crash, which killed one crew member, saw the plane hit several buildings and skid for several hundred meters.

“We already experienced a similar situation this summer, and now something happened that fits somewhere into this pattern,” Breuer told the ARD public broadcaster.

In July, a series of igniting parcels at logistics depots in Germany and Poland were linked to an alleged Russian sabotage campaign, aimed at triggering explosions on cargo flights.

Lithuanian presidential adviser Kestutis Budrys said earlier this month that those parcel incidents were likely a test run. While British, German and Polish authorities are investigating, the Kremlin has dismissed the claims as “fake.”

However, Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas contradicted Breuer’s remarks, stating Wednesday that there were “no signs” of sabotage in the DHL crash.

Kasciunas said visual analysis of the wreckage showed no external impact on the aircraft as it attempted to land. Surviving crew members also denied any disturbances, such as smoke or unusual odors, on board prior to the crash.

The crash remains under investigation, with authorities working to determine the cause.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, November 27, 2024 5:11 PM

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A reminder that the government of Russia jails citizens who contradict the government's tall tales and highfalutin stories about Ukraine:

Jailed Moscow politician urges end to Ukraine war at start of new terrorism trial

By Lucy Papachristou | November 27, 2024 5:57 AM CST

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/jailed-moscow-politician-urges-en
d-ukraine-war-start-new-terrorism-trial-2024-11-27
/

A Moscow district councillor serving a seven-year sentence for criticising Russia's invasion of Ukraine staged an anti-war protest from the courtroom cage on Wednesday at the start of a new trial against him on charges of justifying terrorism.

In summer 2022 Alexei Gorinov became the first individual in Russia to be jailed under a wartime censorship law, introduced soon after the invasion launched that February, which punished the dissemination of "deliberately false information" about the Russian army.

He is now charged by Russian prosecutors with "justifying terrorism" for alleged conversations he had with cellmates about Ukraine's Azov battalion, which Moscow considers a terrorist group, and the bombing of a bridge in Russian-annexed Crimea, independent outlet Mediazona reported.

Gorinov, 63, risks up to five more years in prison if found guilty.

His lawyers and supporters have voiced concerns about his health in prison, where they say Gorinov regularly suffers from bronchitis and is sometimes forced to shovel snow while ill.

From behind the bars of the defendants' cage in the city of Vladimir east of Moscow, Gorinov held up a sign on Wednesday reading "Stop killing" and "Let's stop the war", accompanied by a drawing of a peace sign.

Opposition politician Ilya Yashin, who was freed from a Russian prison in an East-West exchange in August, hailed Gorinov as an "indomitable" voice of protest and urged that he be included in a future prisoner swap.

"Behind him are almost three years of prison cells and prison transfers, constant pressure and ruined health," Yashin wrote on Telegram. "But Alexei raises an anti-war poster in court again."

Public protest against the war is rare in Russia, which has cracked down on any opposition to the Kremlin's policies with lengthy prison sentences, but dissidents such as the late Alexei Navalny have used their right to speak in court as an opportunity to express dissent.

In July 2022, Gorinov, a former member of the Krasnoselsky district council in Moscow, was sentenced to seven years in prison after he told a council meeting that Russia was waging a war of aggression against Ukraine.

Dmitry Muratov, a Nobel Prize-winning Russian newspaper editor, said in a YouTube broadcast that other prisoners were given hidden microphones and planted in Gorinov's cell, where they were instructed to provoke him to speak about the war in Ukraine.

Reuters could not independently verify that accusation.
Prosecutors say Gorinov spread ideologies promoting terrorism among four fellow inmates while he was being treated for pneumonia in prison in January 2023. His remarks touched on attacks on the Crimean Bridge and the actions of the Azov battalion, Mediazona reported.

Gorinov denied the terrorism charge on Wednesday, the outlet said.

"I have nothing to do with your terrorism and never have in my entire life," he told the court.

"I was imprisoned for seven years only for speaking out... about the fact that civilians are suffering and children are dying during the war," Gorinov said.

"Life has shown that I was right."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, November 27, 2024 5:47 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


You get thrown in prison in the UK for speaking out about your political opponents online too. It's happening all over the country right now.

You guys hate Russia so much, but you try to emulate them whenever you can.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump is fine.
He is also your current President.

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Thursday, November 28, 2024 6:06 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


In this thread about Russia invading Ukraine, SECOND and THGR post very little about that.

Must be because Russia is rolling over the Ukrainian Army.

Biden* is desperate to not have to acknowledge a defeat on his watch, so he's throwing everything he can into Ukraine with the idea Russia might hesitate to respond, but instead prefer to wait until Trump comes into office. I dunno. If I were Ptin I might decude to strike as many western techs/ troops as I could find in Ukraine. I

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Thursday, November 28, 2024 6:34 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Lacking manpower, Ukraine resorts to harsh means to force draft dodgers into combat

A U.S. official said Ukraine should consider dropping the age of military conscription from 25 to 18.

It's a stark acknowledgment that Ukraine doesn't have enough troops.

Nov 27, 2024



https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/lacking-manpower-ukraine-resorts-to-
harsh-means-to-force-draft-dodgers-into-combat


In April, Ukraine’s parliament passed a series of laws, including one lowering its draft-eligible age for men from 27 to 25, aimed at broadening the universe of men who could be called on to join the grinding war.

Those laws also did away with some draft exemptions and created an online registry for recruits. They were expected to add about 50,000 troops, far short of what Zelenskyy said at the time was needed.

Zelenskyy has consistently stated that he has no plans to lower the mobilization age. A senior Ukrainian official, who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, said Ukraine does not have enough equipment to match the scale of its ongoing mobilization efforts.

The official said Ukrainian officials see the push to the lower the draft age as part of an effort by some Western partners to deflect attention from their own delays in providing equipment or belated decisions.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-biden-draft-08e3bad195585b7c3d9
662819cc5618f


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, November 28, 2024 6:47 AM

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Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
You get thrown in prison in the UK for speaking out about your political opponents online too. It's happening all over the country right now.

You guys hate Russia so much, but you try to emulate them whenever you can.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump is fine.
He is also your current President.

Who? Who in the UK? Russia has thrown thousands into prison for not supporting the war, but this particular prisoner, Alexei Gorinov, is special because he is already in prison for not supporting the war and the Russians want to throw him into even more prison because he has NOT changed his mind and become a war supporter. Also, Russian children are being given failing grades if they do NOT write letters to soldiers. Russia is a completely fucked up country. It is no wonder Russia is poor compared to the EU nor is it difficult to understand why North Korea is poor compared to South Korea. People who are fucked up in the head tend to not be able to concentrate on the tasks necessary to prosper. You should know, 6ix, because you have been fucked up in the head for decades.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-schoolchildren-given-fail
-grades-for-refusing-to-write-letters-to-soldiers/ar-AA1uSwog


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, November 28, 2024 7:11 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian dead and wounded point toward a Ukrainian strategy for victory

By David Axe | Nov 27, 2024, 09:33pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/11/27/a-russian-recruit-has
-a-one-month-life-expectancy-after-signing-up-for-the-war-in-ukraine
/

As Russian forces press their attacks all along the 800-mile front line of Russia’s 33-month wider war on Ukraine, a new recruit in the Russian armed forces has a one-month life expectancy after signing his contract, according to Estonian analyst Artur Rehi.

The brutally short life expectancy of new Russian soldiers should come as no surprise. Determined to capture as much of Ukraine as possible as fast as possible, the Kremlin is hurling unprepared troops against Ukrainian defenses in badly led assaults lacking key support.

That Russia can maintain its forward momentum on the battlefield despite catastrophic losses is one of the great paradoxes of the wider war. But there are reasons to believe the paradox is unsustainable. There’s evidence Russia is finally running out of people.

In late 2023, the Estonian defense ministry crunched the numbers and concluded that Ukraine would ensure Russia’s defeat in 2025 by killing or maiming 100,000 Russian troops in 2024. In fact, the Ukrainians may have killed or maimed around 300,000 Russians so far this year.

To set conditions for a kind of victory, Ukraine should prolong the great Russian die-off.

Given Ukraine’s struggles with recruitment and its own heavy losses—up to 100,000 dead and perhaps 400,000 wounded, according to The Economist—that might mean continuing doing what the Ukrainians have been doing since late 2023: trading territory for the opportunity to inflict massive casualties on the advancing Russians.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, November 28, 2024 1:29 PM

THG


T

Russian Ruble COLLAPSES Under Sanctions; New Russian IRBM Strike Imminent





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Friday, November 29, 2024 5:29 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Commanders’ ‘Comprehensive Neglect’ Just Got A Lot Of Russian Infantry Killed In Eastern Ukraine

Updated Nov 28, 2024, 03:26pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/11/28/commanders-comprehens
ive-neglect-just-got-a-lot-of-russian-infantry-killed-in-eastern-ukraine
/

The Russians are going for broke—and accepting massive casualties. Daily tallies of dead and wounded Russians now routinely exceed 1,500. Total Russian casualties, after 33 months of wider warfare in Ukraine, are somewhere between 600,000 and 730,000.

Many of the deaths are the unavoidable price Russia pays for being on the offensive along much of the 800-mile front line of the 33-month wider war. Exposed attackers almost always suffer greater casualties than dug-in defenders.

But other losses are preventable. Consider that the Russian assault group that tried to make it out of Novovodyane on Nov. 21 apparently didn’t benefit from significant artillery or air support. It didn’t even bother popping obscuring smoke as it advanced—a simple but effective defense against drones.

Nick Reynolds, an analyst with the Royal United Services Institute in London, explained the Russian armed forces’ underlying problems in an October essay for The National Interest. “The full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been a bruising debacle for Russia’s ground forces,” Reynolds wrote. “Despite staving off outright defeat in 2022 and 2023, the quality of its units degraded due to attrition.”

The best-trained and most experienced Russian infantry are concentrated in a few elite units, while under-trained new recruits under ambivalent leadership fill out the bulk of front-line formations. The few good units are effective, Reynolds wrote, but “the way they are currently used does not scale well.” When those new recruits attack en masse, they tend to get massacred.

The same goes for armored forces, which “are not currently competitive against the mix of precise lethal systems that are fielded by both sides in Ukraine,” Reynolds explained. Tanks might work as improvised howitzers, firing from the relative safety of positions miles from the enemy, but they “suffer when brought closer to the front line.”

“Due to Russia’s military culture and comprehensive neglect of its personnel,” Reynolds concluded, “operations are at best unwieldy and more often simply unimplementable with the force available.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, November 29, 2024 5:41 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Trump’s Ukraine envoy has a plan to end the war that Putin may revel in

By Nick Paton Walsh | Fri November 29, 2024

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/29/europe/trump-new-ukraine-envoy-analysis
-intl/index.html


In a single post, the president-elect told the world what the end of the Ukraine war might look like.

“I am very pleased to nominate General Keith Kellogg to serve as Assistant to the President and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social channel. “Together, we will secure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, and Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN!”

By appointing Keith Kellogg as his special envoy to Ukraine, Donald Trump has also chosen a very specific, pre-announced plan. Kellogg, Trump’s 80-year-old former national security advisor, has laid out his peace plan in some detail, writing for the America First policy institute in April.

In short, a ceasefire will freeze the frontlines and both sides will be forced to the negotiating table. But it is in the longer details where it all gets complex.

It says future US aid - likely given as a loan - will be conditioned on Ukraine negotiating with Russia.

Ukraine would not be asked to give up on reclaiming occupied territory, but it would agree to pursue it through diplomacy alone. It accepts “this would require a future diplomatic breakthrough which probably will not occur before Putin leaves office.”

It is fetchingly simple in its approach. But it lacks an accommodation of what Moscow has used the diplomatic process for in the past: To cynically pursue military advances. The Kremlin has in the past ignored ceasefires and pursued its territorial objectives - often blankly denying that it is.

It begins a process in which a wily and deceitful Putin will revel. Exploiting a ceasefire and Western weakness is his forte, the moment he has been waiting nearly three years for. The plan accepts Western fatigue, that its armament production cannot keep pace, and that its values are wasteful. It also makes little accommodation for what Russia will do to upset its vision.

It is a bleak compromise for a bleak war. But it may not end it and instead open a new chapter where Western unity and support begins to crumble, and Putin edges, both at the negotiating table and at the front, closer towards his goals.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, November 29, 2024 7:06 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Is Russia's economy really in trouble? No

By Briar Stewart | Nov 28, 2024 10:34 AM CST

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ruble-economy-putin-1.7395484

In next year's budget, Russia is allocating $145 billion US to defence spending, which will account for more than 6% of the country's GDP. Nekrasov says while it is a huge commitment compared to some countries in the NATO alliance — which are being urged to meet the target of 2% of GDP — he says historically, it is not unreasonable for Russia.

As a comparison, between 1955 and 1975, the U.S. was spending more than 8% a year on average on defence, while Israel was spending on average around 19% between 1967 and 1993.

Russia's defence ministry and regions across the country are offering large salaries and incentives to enlist.

In Buryatia, one of Russia's poorest regions, soldiers receive $4,400 US from the local government for enlisting. The signing bonus is much higher in the city of Moscow, which gives recruits $21,000, on top of their salary and payouts from regional and federal authorities. Taken together, a soldier's pay there would be five times higher than the country's average wage.

In Belgorod, a region that borders Ukraine, the down payment is even higher at $25,000.

Several regions are also offering finders' fees — in some cases more than $1,000 — if someone refers a person who ends up signing a military contract.

And across Russia starting Dec. 1, those who enlist can also have up to $100,000 of their debt written off if they serve in Ukraine for a year.

Western intelligence officials estimate hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed or injured throughout the war. If a soldier is killed, the payout to his family is around $125,000.

"In the lower class, they have increasing standards of living right now," said Nekrasov.

"This money comes to the region. People began to buy and construct houses. People began to walk to restaurants, which they didn't used to go to before."

"If we look at countries with a market economy in a war situation ... if bombs are not falling on your cities and plants, the economy is always growing during the war," said Nekrasov, who is the co-founder and director of the Center for Analysis and Strategies, a think-tank focused on post-Soviet states and the Russian diaspora.

"But the situation where the disposable income of the population is also growing during the war is quite unusual."

Nekrasov doesn't see anything on the horizon that will shake Putin's grip on power or "crash the Russian economy."

"Some things in the economy will not be so good... but the effect doesn't equal a catastrophe."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, November 30, 2024 6:03 AM

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Russian opposition outlets Mediazona and BBC Russian Service reported that they have confirmed that at least 80,937 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.[107] Mediazona and BBC Russian Service reported on November 29 that over half of the soldiers who they confirmed to have died in Ukraine were not in the Russian military at the start of the full scale invasion in February 2022; that volunteer servicemembers usually die within two to four weeks of arriving at the frontline; that volunteers comprise 22 percent of total Russian losses; and that convict recruits comprise 18 percent of total losses.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-29-2024


https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/clygedgp40yo

https://meduza.io/news/2024/11/29/mediazona-i-bi-bi-si-podtverdili-gib
el-bolee-80-tysyach-rossiyskih-voennyh-v-ukraine-bolshe-poloviny-iz-nih-ne-byli-svyazany-s-armiey-do-nachala-voyny


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, November 30, 2024 6:14 AM

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What are the real losses?

The actual toll is likely much higher than can be determined through open sources. Military experts we interviewed suggest that our analysis of Russian cemeteries, war memorials, and obituaries may account for between 45% and 65% of the real death toll.

This is partly because the bodies of a significant number of soldiers killed in recent months may still be on the battlefield. Removing them would require additional risks to the health of surviving soldiers who could be hit by drone strikes. In many cases, evacuation is temporarily abandoned.

In addition to the dead, irretrievable losses in war usually also include the seriously wounded (dismissed from service due to injury) and missing in action. It is extremely difficult to establish even an approximate number of these categories based on open data, because they are almost never reported. The most conservative estimate of the number of seriously wounded was made by the publications Mediazona and Meduza* based on compensation payments for injuries in 2022.

Given these figures, the ratio of seriously wounded to fatalities could be about 2 to 1, meaning that for every fatality there are two seriously wounded who are permanently out of action. The overall ratio of wounded to fatalities on the Russian side could most likely be 4 to 1, or four wounded for every fatality. This estimate is supported by both the assessment of a number of independent experts and numerous testimonies from the front lines.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c5ywndyjjx0o

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, November 30, 2024 7:31 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

What are the real losses?

The actual toll is likely much higher than can be determined through open sources. Military experts we interviewed suggest that our analysis of Russian cemeteries, war memorials, and obituaries may account for between 45% and 65% of the real death toll.

This is partly because the bodies of a significant number of soldiers killed in recent months may still be on the battlefield. Removing them would require additional risks to the health of surviving soldiers who could be hit by drone strikes. In many cases, evacuation is temporarily abandoned.



In the calculus of war, this applies to Ukrainian soldiers much more than Russian.
Why?
Because Ukraine lacks the strike capability (mortar, artillery, bomb, missile) to literally bury soldiers in rubble, making bodies irretrievable.
Furthermore, Ukraine lacks the manpower to flank and surround positions ... Russia's latest favorite tactic ... which also makes bodies irretrievable.

So much cope.

Instead of listening to distorted articles from neocons who try to convince you that things are other than as they are, you should follow Military Summary Channel. Dima's heart is with Ukraine. But if you simply follow the military action from day to day, you'll see how the war is going.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Saturday, November 30, 2024 9:15 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

What are the real losses?

The actual toll is likely much higher than can be determined through open sources. Military experts we interviewed suggest that our analysis of Russian cemeteries, war memorials, and obituaries may account for between 45% and 65% of the real death toll.

This is partly because the bodies of a significant number of soldiers killed in recent months may still be on the battlefield. Removing them would require additional risks to the health of surviving soldiers who could be hit by drone strikes. In many cases, evacuation is temporarily abandoned.



In the calculus of war, this applies to Ukrainian soldiers much more than Russian.
Why?
Because Ukraine lacks the strike capability (mortar, artillery, bomb, missile) to literally bury soldiers in rubble, making bodies irretrievable.
Furthermore, Ukraine lacks the manpower to flank and surround positions ... Russia's latest favorite tactic ... which also makes bodies irretrievable.

So much cope.

Instead of listening to distorted articles from neocons who try to convince you that things are other than as they are, you should follow Military Summary Channel. Dima's heart is with Ukraine. But if you simply follow the military action from day to day, you'll see how the war is going.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


Signym, do you sense the difference between the motivation for Russian soldiers and Ukrainian soldiers? On one hand, Russian soldiers are being paid per month 5 times more than what they would make as civilians. If they die, their families get the equivalent of ten years worth of wages. If they volunteer, their debts are cancelled as long as the debt is less than 10,000,000 rubles. The Russians soldiers have to be over-paid because the sole motivation to fight is money.

On the other hand, Ukrainian soldiers are fighting so that their country is not annihilated.

Do you sense the difference, Signym?

In wartime Russia, some men may be worth more dead than alive, economist says
https://fortune.com/2024/11/16/russia-economy-military-death-payouts-v
s-civilian-earnings-ukraine-war
/

Putin signs law letting Ukraine fighters write off bad debts
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241123-putin-signs-law-letting
-ukraine-fighters-write-off-bad-debts


Writing off unpaid debts worth 10 million rubles is very significant since the average yearly salary in Russia is around 1.24 million rubles, or roughly $14,771.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Average+Russian+income

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, November 30, 2024 12:34 PM

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How Biden Made a Mess of Ukraine

He treated the conflict as a crisis to be managed, not a war to be won.

By Phillips Payson O’Brien | November 30, 2024

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/11/biden-ukraine-policy
-failures/680834
/

Joe Biden filled his administration with geniuses: Rhodes scholars; Ivy League graduates; people with extensive global experience; a national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, whom the president has described as a “once-in-a-generation intellect.” The president himself has been immersed in foreign policy for half a century. Yet despite all of those impressive résumés, the Biden administration has badly mishandled the war in Ukraine, not only hampering a beleaguered ally’s ability to fend off a Russian invasion but also throwing away a remarkable chance to improve America’s global standing and democratic powers’ position in the world.

In defending themselves far more effectively than expected, the Ukrainians showed a capacity to deal Russian President Vladimir Putin a major military defeat, but again and again, Biden and his experts have constrained Ukraine’s ability to fight until it was too late. Just recently, only after his party lost the presidential election, Biden finally gave Ukraine the tightly limited ability to use American weapons on military targets in a small part of Russia. The president’s decision comes after 33 months of war, during which Russia has launched long-range attacks anywhere in Ukraine it wanted, in many cases using Iranian-made weaponry.

Biden has promised the Ukrainians that he will stand by them “for as long as it takes”—but he has nevertheless made sure that the war has gone on much longer than it had to.

Nearly three years in, the conflict is becoming ever more grotesque, and the number of war crimes keeps rising. The conflict has also become more global in nature, as Russia, by economic and military necessity, deepens its alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea. When Putin was gathering his invasion force in late 2021 and early 2022, the United States had good intelligence and tried to warn Ukraine about Russia’s plans. A far harder call was what would happen when an invasion began, and in that respect, the Biden administration didn’t understand what it was looking at. U.S. officials assumed that if Putin went ahead with his plans, Ukraine would stand no chance and the Russians would prevail in short order. Stung by the disastrous American withdrawal from Afghanistan just months earlier, Biden reacted to the new crisis with self-pity: According to the journalist Bob Woodward’s new book, War, the president complained, “Jesus Christ! Now I’ve got to deal with Russia swallowing Ukraine?”

In fact, the United States had greatly overestimated Russian might. Instead of unleashing shock and awe, Putin’s military was a shoddy instrument. It had ample firepower but was also hindered by corruption, uneven morale, command-and-control shortcomings, and logistical problems. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians showed themselves to be far more resilient, adaptable, and willing to fight than the Biden administration had understood. At that point, the U.S. could have capitalized immensely on the Ukrainians’ spirited resistance and on Russian weakness.

I struggle to think of another time when unexpected events offered a U.S. president more favorable conditions to remake the geopolitical landscape. For years, American strategists have discussed reorienting U.S. military forces away from Europe, where they serve primarily to guard democratic nations against Moscow’s military aggression, and toward the Indo-Pacific region in order to deter a fast-growing China. If the U.S. had helped Ukraine win in 2022—which is to say, liberate its own internationally recognized territory—and then join NATO, it would also have protected the security of countries to Ukraine’s west. The presence of a militarily powerful Ukraine in NATO would have moved the balance of forces within Europe decisively in favor of democratic nations and restored global confidence in American leadership, which the Afghanistan debacle had undermined. The United States could then have drawn down its military footprint in Europe and focused its energies on Asia. The world would have been much safer and stabler.

However bold the president’s promises to stand by the Ukrainians, though, his administration seemed cowed by Russian threats that Putin would use nuclear weapons if the U.S. assisted Kyiv too much. Moreover, an ingrained fixation on seeking stability in Russia seemed to make the White House nervous about doing anything that would threaten Putin’s rule too much or yield chaos in Russia. In a Foreign Affairs essay last fall, Sullivan boasted multiple times that the Biden administration was helping Ukraine defend itself. The problem is that defensive tactics alone will never be sufficient to allow Ukrainians to defeat an invasion by a much larger power.

Even so, Biden and his aides pursued a Goldilocks strategy, hoping to help Ukraine fight without provoking Putin too much. They provided very limited types of military equipment to Ukraine and even then made sure to restrict what Ukraine could do with it. At first, the Biden administration seemed terrified to give Ukraine anything that could hit more than 30 miles or so from the front lines—so the U.S. supplied only short-range weaponry. It certainly didn’t want Ukraine to be able to target Russian military assets in Crimea, which is internationally recognized as part of Ukraine and has been illegally occupied by Russia since 2014.

So for the rest of 2022, when Russia’s initial invasion faltered and then went into reverse, Ukraine was deprived of any ability to hit Russian targets far in the rear, even if those targets were within Ukraine’s own territory. And the battlefield results that followed were predictable. Although Ukraine made some deep advances in the fall, the Russians were always able to recover, having a broad sanctuary where they could regroup and supply their forces.

That was the start of the Biden administration forcing Ukraine to fight in a way that the United States would never contemplate for itself. When Kyiv sought longer-range weapons systems in 2022 and early 2023, the Biden administration at first refused, citing Putin’s supposed willingness to use nuclear weapons. The possibility of nuclear escalation was regularly repeated when Ukrainians sought access to other Western weapons systems, including ATACMS missiles, Abrams main battle tanks, F-16 fighters, and more.

When the U.S. eventually got over its reservations and provided the requested systems, albeit in limited numbers, Putin always backed down. The standard Russian strategy was to downplay the arrival of the new equipment and go out of its way to assure the Russian public that it would make no difference in the war. And in fact, those Western weapons had significantly less impact than they would have if the U.S. had transferred them earlier and in greater quantity.

An inability to learn became a major, repeated failure of the Biden administration’s overall strategy toward Ukraine. Extreme caution about provoking Putin was perhaps understandable in early 2022. American defense planners had for years played numerous wargames that resulted in nuclear weapons being used if some imagined Russian redline was crossed. Both Woodward and The New York Times have reported that, as Ukraine was taking back territory in the fall of 2022, the Biden administration believed—based on intelligence that likely will never become public—that there was a 50 percent chance that Putin would use nuclear bombs. Even so, the administration should have adjusted its thinking after Russia’s military weakness and its tendency to bluff on nuclear matters became clear.

Russia has adjusted its tactics and is trying to win. It has used Iranian drones, retrofitted with thermobaric weapons, to burn Ukrainian civilians alive; it’s in the process of deploying 10,000 North Korean troops to do its fighting, while sacrificing its own soldiers at a rate reaching 45,000 injuries and deaths a month. (The British government estimates total Russian casualties at about 700,000.) The Biden administration, meanwhile, is tying itself in knots deciding whether to allow Ukraine to attack military targets of great strategic value with weapons designed to do just that.

In practice, the Biden administration has treated the Ukraine conflict like a crisis to be managed, not a war to be won. The administration doesn’t seem to understand that Russia can be beaten.

For all of their caution, Biden and his foreign-policy experts have been caught unaware more than once—by the chaos surrounding the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, and even more strikingly by the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. The latter event occurred a week after Sullivan pronounced the Middle East “quieter today than it has been in two decades.” (He used similar language in the print version of his Foreign Affairs essay, which was revised before publication online.)

Unfortunately, the administration seems to have been just as surprised by Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression—and lacked the wisdom and imagination to take advantage of the situation for Ukraine’s benefit and America’s.

The war has now gone on so long that Biden won’t figure in its ending. Ukrainians can still fight on with Europe’s help. Perhaps President-Elect Donald Trump will confound his allies and detractors alike by standing with Ukraine instead of indulging Putin. What’s clear is that Biden missed the moment. The administration has dithered, looking more and more powerless as Ukraine has suffered and as an emergent anti-Western alliance that includes Iran, North Korea, and China has come to Russia’s aid. Biden could have helped create a better, more secure world than the one that existed in February 2022. Instead, he’s ushered in a much more dangerous one.

Phillips Payson O’Brien is a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, in Scotland. He is the author of The Strategists: Churchill, Stalin, Roosevelt, Mussolini, and Hitler—How War Made Them, and How They Made War.

Download free books by Phillips Payson O’Brien from the mirrors at https://libgen.is//search.php?req=Phillips+Payson+O%E2%80%99Brien

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, November 30, 2024 1:54 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


There is a flood of pointless articles intended to distract from the Oreshnik (hazel grove) strike on the Yuzhmash factory in Dnipro. There is nothing in western press about the damage done.

About the factory. It was the Soviet Union's ICBM- manufacturing facility. The place, they say, is huge, and because it was so strategically important it was built underground, able to withstand a nuclear strike.

Now that engineers have been able to assess the strike, they have concluded that the Oreshnik is an entirely new missile. It is launched ballistically (with a variable speed rocket). It has 6 warheads, each with six submunitions, all descending at Mach 10 and all independently targetable. Speed alone causes the submunitions to reach 3000F, and being struck by that is like being hit by a meteor.
Even without warheads, conventional or otherwise, these missiles can destroy anything they hit.

Reports (rumors?) are that Ukraine, with the help of Western engineers and technicians, was using the facility to design and build new kinds of missiles for Ukraine. Reports are that whatever was inside this huge facility- including about 100 staff- was obliterated. The fact that Ukraine and the Western press have enforced such a stringent official news blackout, and instead are flooding the media with bullshit stories, tells me that the damage was shocking and extensive and that Western militaries need to recalibrate.

Putin just gave a speech, also not covered in Western press, where he compared Russian missile technology and production to Western capabilities. In each relevant category, he detailed how Russian capabilities are superior to Western, and in many categories the West doesn't have anything comparable. He also promised that each time the West launches its missiles at Old Russia from Ukrainian soil, Russia will retaliate in force. He says they know where all the ATACMS, Storm Shadow, and Scalp missiles are, where the personnel are, and they will not hesitate to strike at Western assets. They may even strike at "decision-making centers" in Kiev, and they no longer consider Zelenskiy to be a legitimate ruler of Ukraine.

Make of that what you will.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Sunday, December 1, 2024 5:00 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Make of that what you will.

Russian fan-fiction.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, December 1, 2024 5:01 AM

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A Russian insider source claimed that Russian law enforcement raids against nightclubs in Moscow, which Russian authorities conducted overnight on November 29 to 30 to enforce Russian censorship laws and the pseudo-state ideology, are actually intended to replenish the populations of penal colonies for Russian force generation efforts.[58] Russian authorities previously conducted raids targeting migrant communities to coerce migrants into joining the Russian military and capitalize on xenophobia against migrants following the March 2024 Crocus terrorist attack in Moscow.[59]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-30-2024


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, December 1, 2024 7:00 AM

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How did Russia win the Great Patriotic War? Hitler was Russia’s secret weapon against Germany:
Quote:

This reverse caused the opposite of humility in Hitler – and when faced with the first real setback in his land war on the European continent, he failed the basic test of war leadership. When stories started coming in of the faltering German advance and the first signs of a possible Russian counterattack, Hitler became angry and unbalanced and started issuing the first of his famous no-retreat orders – ones he would repeat up until the moment he committed suicide in Berlin three and a half years later. One of the first examples of this was on 30 November. Hitler lost control when he heard news that Soviet counterattacks had caused the 1st Panzer Army, which was driving towards Moscow from the south, to pull back to keep from getting encircled. According to Franz Halder, the army’s chief of staff, Hitler was ‘in a state of extreme agitation’. Refusing to let his generals speak, Hitler did all the ‘talking, pouring out reproaches as abuse, and shouting orders as fast as they come into his head’. The orders were all variations on the same theme: Hitler forbidding ‘withdrawals’ or allowing his armies to ‘fall back’.18

As things became more difficult in December and the true strength of the Russian counterattack was revealed, Hitler tried to escape blame for having underestimated the Red Army. On 8 December, he issued a Führer directive ordering his armies to stop attacking and instead take up defensive positions up and down the line. The reason given was not the Soviet counterattack but the ‘severe winter weather which has come surprisingly early in the East, and the consequent difficulties in bringing up supplies’.19 Blaming the weather didn’t keep the Soviets from pressing, however, and more and more German units had to retreat. In response, Hitler repeated the same order over and over – no retreat, stand your ground, and die in place if needed.20

Unable to shoulder any of the blame himself, he now started blaming his generals, claiming that they were either weak or deceiving him. On 19 December, he decided to neuter army interference as much as possible by abolishing the post of Commander-in-Chief of the German Army and assumed direct control himself. This meant that General Halder now reported directly to him.21 Hitler even boasted that operational command was so easy that anyone could do it.22 He had by now completely infantilized the armed forces, and for the rest of the war would increasingly surround himself only with officers who told him what he wanted to hear.

With one fewer check in place, Hitler continued to order the troops outside of Moscow not to retreat, regardless of the freezing weather. On 20 December, he held forth at ‘great length’ on the need to hold the line. ‘Every man must fight back where he stands.’23 He also referred to his own World War I experiences. When General Heinz Guderian, who was commanding one of the Panzergruppen aimed at Moscow, said that his troops could not entrench because the ground was frozen for at least five feet below the surface, Hitler suggested that the soldiers use howitzers to blast craters to use as trenches. After all, Hitler said, this is what German troops had done on the Western Front in World War I.24 He seemed incapable of understanding that the conditions in Russia could be that different to those he had experienced himself as a soldier.

This ‘hold fast and die in place’ order quickly became part of Hitler’s self-reinforcing myth of greatness – almost like he was trying to expunge the disaster that had befallen the German Army in 1918. He believed that it was his will and determination that saved the German Army from catastrophe outside of Moscow, that rallied the troops and prevented a great defeat. It was a view without substance, but has lived on partly because it was repeated so much. Yet it makes no sense. In the first place, many German soldiers did retreat. The German Army, under pressure from the Russians, disregarded Hitler’s stand-and-die order a number of times. By late January, even he was forced to admit the reality, and authorized a significant withdrawal of German forces from outside of Moscow.25 The upshot of all this was that the German Army found itself much further from Moscow in the spring of 1942 than it had been in December 1941. In some cases it was now more than 100 miles further west, and Moscow was so secure that Hitler would never be able to threaten it again.26

A reflective war leader might have tried to understand what had happened in the winter of 1941–42 and learn from it. The German Army had been overextended because of overconfidence in its own abilities and a drastic underestimation of its enemy’s. Yet the lesson that Hitler took from all this was that he had been right all along – that it was his greatness that saved the day. In fact, once things settled down on the Eastern Front in 1942, he returned to his earlier, already disproved perception that the Russians were about to collapse and could not take the pounding much longer. He told his secretary that it would soon be shown that the Russian lines were ‘a quite thin veil’ and that it would be discovered that ‘Russian resistance will not endure’.27 What was needed, of course, was more direct control from him, to make sure his weak-kneed generals fought with the will and conviction needed to crush the weakening Red Army.

Someone heading in an opposite direction from Adolf Hitler was Joseph Stalin. Stalin’s meeting with Harry Hopkins was just one example of how he reacted to adversity not by doubling down on his own brilliance, but by trying to cultivate and benefit from the support of others. This was not because of any change of personality; it was because he had calculated, accurately, that the chances of his personal survival and that of the USSR (and then later of their further successes) would be better assured by taking help where he could get it, even if this showed him doing things that ideologically or personally he had not done before.

Having been played so spectacularly by Hitler up until 22 June, afterwards Stalin became arguably the most successful manoeuvrer on the international stage. His meeting with Hopkins was only the start of him ingratiating himself with US and British policymakers in such a way that these two great capitalist powers provided massive support for the Bolshevik Soviet Union. When it came to cultivating Roosevelt, until November 1943 Stalin had to act through intermediaries (primarily Hopkins) and telegrams. He did so very successfully.

Phillips Payson O’Brien is a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, in Scotland. He is the author of The Strategists: Churchill, Stalin, Roosevelt, Mussolini, and Hitler—How War Made Them, and How They Made War from which the above excerpt was taken.

Download free books by Phillips Payson O’Brien from the mirrors at https://libgen.is//search.php?req=Phillips+Payson+O%E2%80%99Brien

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, December 1, 2024 8:34 AM

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He thought he would die in Putin’s gulag. Now he has a message for the world.

By Joshua Keating | Dec 1, 2024

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/388169/kara-murza-putin-russia

On April 11, 2022, just weeks after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the writer and activist Vladimir Kara-Murza was arrested outside his home in Moscow. He was charged with “spreading deliberately false information,” Kremlin-speak for criticizing the war in Ukraine. A year later, he was sentenced to 25 years in prison before later being transferred to a remote Siberian penal colony where he was held in an isolation cell.

Kara-Murza, who had already survived two earlier poisonings that had been linked to Russia’s security services, continued writing in prison, including regular columns for the Washington Post, for which he was awarded the Pulitzer Prize for commentary. He expected to die in prison, as his fellow dissident Alexei Navalny did earlier this year.

More at https://www.vox.com/world-politics/388169/kara-murza-putin-russia

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, December 2, 2024 6:34 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Europe is under attack from Russia. Why isn’t it fighting back?

Western countries have shied away from reacting to Kremlin acts of sabotage and terror.

By Laura Kayali, Dirk Banse, Wolfgang Büscher, Ulrich Kraetzer, Uwe Müller and Christian Schweppe | November 25, 2024 4:00 am CET

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-russia-hybrid-war-vladimir-puti
n-germany-cyberattacks-election-interference
/

If not for a delay in a connecting flight, the incendiary bomb would likely have burst into flames in the belly of a plane flying high above the European Union.

Instead, it ignited on the ground in Germany’s Leipzig airport, setting fire to a DHL air freight container.

Western intelligence officials believe the attack, which took place in July, was a trial run by Russian agents who planned to place similar bombs on flights to the United States.

Nils Andreas Stensønes, the head of Norway’s foreign intelligence service, said in September that he expected the Kremlin to ramp up efforts to sabotage oil and gas infrastructure.

Western officials suspect Moscow was behind arson attacks in Poland, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Germany, Lithuania and Latvia. And German and U.S. officials say they foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, the chief executive of Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer and a major supplier of artillery shells to the Ukrainian army.

While some governments — especially in Nordic and Baltic countries — have tried to raise the alarm, the collective response from the EU and NATO has so far been notably tame.

“We are simply too polite,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on the sidelines of a NATO summit in July. “They are attacking us every day now.”

Part of the reason for Europe’s passivity can be attributed to fears in Western capitals about being drawn into a conflict for which they’re not prepared, said Daniel Byman, an expert in terrorism and unconventional warfare at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

“Most countries don’t want to be openly confronting Russia more than they already are,” he said. “They’re worried about escalation, a back-and-forth cycle that will make things worse.”

Even the words used to talk about the attacks are reflective of Europe’s timidity, said Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s outgoing foreign minister.

“Why do we call it hybrid? Because basically when you call it hybrid you don’t need to do anything about it,” Landsbergis told a security conference in Riga last month. “If you call it terrorism, then it implies reaction.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, December 2, 2024 6:35 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Why Negotiations With Putin Are Doomed to Fail

By Anastasia Edel

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/26/russia-ukraine-war-putin-trump-ze
lensky-peace-negotiations-diplomacy
/

No human toll is too high for Russia. During World War II, Russia lost more than 27 million people—the largest number of fatalities of all involved. Peter the Great’s 18th-century Great Northern War, which established Russia’s power in the Baltics, lasted 21 years and incurred enormous casualties, as did the 25-year-long Livonian War fought by Ivan the Terrible in the 16th century.

Russia has already suffered upward of 700,000 people dead or wounded during the Ukraine war, according to estimates from the National Interest. But with families of dead soldiers mollified by the “coffin money” they receive, society writ large has not budged in its support for the war. It will likely stay that way short of another mobilization.

It certainly helps that the brunt of the war is borne by recruited volunteers, who sign up to fight to improve their and their family’s economic standings, and by convicts—both groups making up a significant number of those killed and wounded in Ukraine. Another large constituency fighting Russia’s war is national minorities, often from depressed economic areas and the lowest strata of society. And now, those minorities are joined by North Korean soldiers and potentially by citizens of the other dictatorships that Putin courts.

If anything, the war in Ukraine has given Putin more money to play with than before. Assets belonging to Western companies exiting Russia have been nationalized or bought for cheap and redistributed to businesses with ties to the Kremlin—one of the largest property transfers in Russia’s history. Cut off from Western banks, Russian oligarchs must invest their money domestically. Sanctions evasion schemes protect Russians’ access to Western consumer goods, creating enormous enrichment opportunities for Russian and Western business agents alike. Tankers shuttle Russian oil with payments cleared through offshore shell companies. Putin’s personal wealth, estimated at somewhere between $70 billion and $200 billion, remains safe. Though he is a product of a socialist state, the Russian leader is a master of capitalism.

Even if Putin wanted to end the war, it would entail serious risk for his regime. Drones, shells, and missile production would have to be scaled down, ending the economic boom. The sudden drop in government spending would create real prospects of an economic collapse. Around 1.5 million veterans would have to be pulled out of Ukraine to find new roles in a corrupt Russian society. The manufactured sense of national unity would give way to envy that beyond the border, on Russia’s “ancestral lands,” Ukrainians are thriving under European Union and NATO banners.

Taken together, in a country re-acclimatized to grand-scale violence, the prospect of revolt becomes clear and present. To find an outlet for that aggression, Putin would have to start a new war not long after agreeing to settle for peace.

Ultimately, the status quo—an ongoing border squabble with conventional weapons—suits all but Ukraine and Europe, for which security deteriorates in direct proportion to Putin’s success.

The West, meanwhile, will be negotiating from a position of inherent weakness. After tiptoeing around the Kremlin’s red lines throughout the war, Western leaders have signaled their readiness to consider cessation of a large chunk of Ukrainian territory, wishing away what little leverage they had.

There is nothing stopping Putin from believing that he can’t get more. Unless Russia is decisively defeated on the battlefield or Putin is given precisely what he wants, he will not stop.

Of the options put forward for a negotiated solution, the only one that Putin would agree to is the one that gives him Ukraine’s capitulation on a platter. He will never agree to a thriving, independent, armed, and Western-aligned Ukraine on his border, because he would lose too much face. Putin will therefore demand a nonviable Ukraine—without an army and without NATO membership—and, in effect, a Western surrender.

The issue of European security cannot be solved by a settlement with Moscow because appeasement only increases the aggressor’s appetite. Only the containment of Putin’s expansionism by military means will remove the existential threat to his neighbors. So long as there is an aggressive, revanchist Russia in the picture, lasting peace is an illusion.

Anastasia Edel is a Russian-born American writer and social historian. She is the author of Russia: Putin’s Playground, a concise guide to Russian history, politics, and culture. Download the book for free from the mirrors at https://libgen.is//search.php?req=Anastasia+Edel

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, December 2, 2024 7:24 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian military and diplomats fleeing Damascus in a hurry

By Stanislav Pohorilov — Monday, 2 December 2024, 12:08

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/12/2/7487220/

According to Ukrainian intelligence, forces opposing the Russian-backed Assad administration are actively marching south of the country, with the first urban confrontations taking place in Hama, Homs and Suwayda.

It is known that the Russian contingent abandoned Hama and relocated to the Khmeimim Airbase. Colonel General Alexander Zhuravlev, chief of the Russian coordinating headquarters in Khmeimim, declared that the situation was out of the Assad regime's control.

In addition, the Russians fled a military base in the city of Khan Shaykhun, leaving behind a huge inventory of weapons and equipment.

Defence Intelligence of Ukraine also reports that on 1 December 2024, Russian planes started airstrikes in Khan Shaykhun. The attack was most likely intended to destroy Russian military assets that had been transferred to rebel troops.

In the midst of the frantic flight of Russian forces, news of the resignation of the Russian contingent's commander, General Kisel, began spreading in Arab-speaking channels.

Colonel Vadim Baikulov, who led a group of Russian special troops, was also summoned to Moscow. He must explain to the Kremlin why his subordinates were killed and military equipment captured in Aleppo.

Background:

• According to Reuters, Russia promised the Assad administration greater military support to oppose the rebels.

• On 2 December, Dmitry Peskov, Putin's press secretary, stated that the Kremlin will continue to support Bashar al-Assad.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, December 2, 2024 9:25 AM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Putin just gave a speech, also not covered in Western press, where he compared Russian missile technology and production to Western capabilities. In each relevant category, he detailed how Russian capabilities are superior to Western, and in many categories the West doesn't have anything comparable. He also promised that each time the West launches its missiles at Old Russia from Ukrainian soil, Russia will retaliate in force. He says they know where all the ATACMS, Storm Shadow, and Scalp missiles are, where the personnel are, and they will not hesitate to strike at Western assets. They may even strike at "decision-making centers" in Kiev, and they no longer consider Zelenskiy to be a legitimate ruler of Ukraine.

Make of that what you will.






T

Russia has resorted to desperate measures, carpet bombing the city of Aleppo today and causing massive civilian casualties in an attempt to help save the Dying Assad Regime. It appears this may be a hopeless endeavor as the Syiran Arab Army is still in complete tatters, and it attempting to retake Hama at the moment although rebel forces are fighting heavily. South of Aleppo SAA forces appear to be entirely broken as large numbers of prisoners have been taken. In Ukraine Russian forces attempt to drive Ukraine out of Kursk but suffer heavy losses, making no gains again and today's attacks defeated. In other areas the Russians are still attempting to push with no success.



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Monday, December 2, 2024 1:13 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russia is spending 7.2% of its GDP on War. USA has spent a higher percentage.
The Russian economy can maintain 7.2% for years and years.
https://jabberwocking.com/russia-is-spending-record-amounts-on-the-ukr
aine-war
/


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, December 2, 2024 5:25 PM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:


Now that engineers have been able to assess the strike, they have concluded that the Oreshnik is an entirely new missile. It is launched ballistically (with a variable speed rocket). It has 6 warheads, each with six submunitions, all descending at Mach 10 and all independently targetable. Speed alone causes the submunitions to reach 3000F, and being struck by that is like being hit by a meteor.
Even without warheads, conventional or otherwise, these missiles can destroy anything they hit.






Another document signed by Russia promising not to build these type missiles. And, another lie. Not to worry. Most won't work.

T




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Tuesday, December 3, 2024 8:42 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Russia may have violated the INF Treaty. Here’s how the United States appears to have done the same.[first]


https://thebulletin.org/2019/02/russia-may-have-violated-the-inf-treat
y-heres-how-the-united-states-appears-to-have-done-the-same
/

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Wednesday, December 4, 2024 6:15 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Chasing the Impossible Will Be the West’s Downfall

It is critical for the West to face up to realities and respond resolutely or face further humiliation and debilitation.

By Oleh Dunda | December 1, 2024, 4:07 pm

https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/43001

Foreign Affairs published an article by Richard Haass “The Perfect Has Become the Enemy of the Good in Ukraine.” It describes in detail the strategy of “appeasement of the aggressor,” which is now being actively promoted in Western political circles. In broad outline, this vision echoes many proposals – from J.D. Vance to Mike Pompeo.

But these plans all have one major problem: a complete disregard for the causes and objectives of the war Russia has unleashed. And without understanding this, it is impossible to propose a workable plan to end the war in any form.

For a clearer analysis, we will leave Ukraine’s position out of the brackets. It is crystal clear. Both the Ukrainian authorities and, especially, Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines are not ready to accept defeat and capitulation to Russia in any form. Including in the form of territorial concessions to Russia. And the talk about the war fatigue of Ukrainian society is greatly exaggerated and has nothing to do with reality.

But the rest of the theses stated in the article deserve a separate careful consideration and analysis.

Ukraine’s victory and full return of its territories implies an increase in the risks of nuclear confrontation between Russia and NATO (US and EU) and therefore Ukraine’s victory is not acceptable.

The world has already gone through Russia’s threats to use nuclear weapons during the Cold War. And, it turned out, they can be quelled by showing determination and resilience.

Russia, like the USSR, is fragile and can threaten only as long as it is allowed to do so. Prigozhin’s revolt proved that just 5,000 fighters can bring a regime to the brink of collapse.

At the time of Wagner’s march on Moscow, the Russian power vertical was close to paralysis and was not ready to make any decisions. The basis of Russia’s political and state elite are ordinary careerists and conformists who are not suicidal.  And the Kursk operation in Ukraine showed the whole world that the notorious “red lines” of nuclear blackmail are just a bluff of the Kremlin.

The West’s main task should be to preserve Ukraine’s independence with the right to choose any alliances and Ukraine’s ability to build up its own military capabilities.

The drafts of the Istanbul Accords 2022, recently published by the New York Times, unambiguously outline Russia’s demands for “peace.” They include restrictions on Ukraine’s freedom of choice of defense alliances, and a de facto ban on its partners providing military assistance to Ukraine in the event of aggression in the form of a “unanimous consensus” procedure.

And most importantly, limiting the potential of the Ukrainian army to the lowest possible level. And Russia has not given up on these demands. In particular, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an October interview with Newsweek directly states: “The Istanbul agreements could be the basis for a settlement... They provide for Kyiv’s refusal to join NATO.”

And Russian President Vladimir Putin wants even more concessions.

“We are ready for peace talks, but only not on the basis of some ‘wishes,’ the name of which changes from month to month, but on the basis of the realities that are emerging and on the basis of the agreements that were reached in Istanbul.On the basis, but based on the realities of today,” Putin said during his speech at the Valdai Club.

And these demands, including “demilitarization,” are repeated constantly by Kremlin public speakers at every level in all public speeches. Where in these Kremlin demands are the possibilities for preserving Ukraine’s independence in the future?

Ukraine must cede territories to Russia in order to achieve peace.

These proposals were created around Moscow’s territorial claims to Ukraine. Allegedly, if we agree on the territory, the war will end. But Moscow is eager to get control, at least over all the regions of Ukraine already written in the Constitution of the Russian Federation, but not yet occupied, in particular, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

“The Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions as well as the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics have become part of the Russian Federation, and there can be no talk of violating our state unity,” Putin said at a meeting with Russian Foreign Ministry officials in the summer.

And freezing the situation along the front line will be interpreted by Russia in the future as an encroachment on its territorial integrity. Unless, of course, it falls apart by then.

But this is not even about Ukrainian land. From the Munich Speech in 2007 to his speech at the Valdai Club on Nov. 7, Putin has been literally shouting: this is not a question of territories, but of restoring the Cold War world order with the division of zones of control.

Against this background, 20% of Ukraine’s territories looks like a defeat for Moscow.

The Kremlin is consistently pushing through the concept of expanding its zones of influence without backing down a step. For the last 20 years, the main and only way for Moscow to solve problems has been the strategy of “we will squeeze you, sit tight, push you down, without retreating a step.”

For some reason, Western leaders have forgotten about Moscow’s ultimatum to NATO and the United States in December 2021 with the actual demand to disarm the former Warsaw Pact countries. Let me remind you that “Putin’s ultimatum to NATO” on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine provided for the return of the Alliance to the 1997 borders, which means the exclusion of 14 countries: Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro and Northern Macedonia. Not to mention Sweden and Finland, which will join NATO in 2023.

Moreover, in late October in Minsk, Lavrov again reminded the West that no one has given up on this ultimatum and is not going to do so.

“Contrary to the assurances of the Soviet leadership and despite our repeated warnings over the past 20 years, the North Atlantic Alliance has been recklessly expanding eastward...This is the root cause of the crisis, which the leaders of the West today prefer not to recall,” said the Russian Foreign Minister.

And it would be short-sighted to turn a blind eye to these statements. The current pro-Russian policy of Prime Ministers Viktor Orban of Hungary and Robert Fico of Slovakia shows that the restoration of the Warsaw Bloc is quite real.

And the policy of “appeasement of the aggressor” will lead to the fact that there will be more and more such “Orbans” and “Ficos.” And this will be the end of the big European project and the North Atlantic Alliance in its current form.

We can talk about peacekeeping contingents in the demilitarized zone and freezing Ukraine’s accession to NATO for 20 years, as described in a recent article in The Wall Street Journal, but even this is not part of Moscow’s plans, which it has been promoting for the past 15 years and will not lead to the desired result.

The examples of a divided Germany, Korea and Cyprus are not relevant here.

Containment of North Korea, with the Soviet Union looming behind it, required first the US entry into the war - “boots on the ground” - and then the formation of impressive military contingents: about 30,000 US soldiers are in South Korea right now.

The US contingent in Germany during the “Cold War” amounted to 200,000 soldiers. And the tranquility of Cyprus is provided by 15,000 British military. The question of sending the US army to Ukraine is not even discussed now because of the risks of a nuclear confrontation. Who will enforce the concept of the demilitarized zone?

Western democracies lack the capacity to increase military production to support Ukraine on the battlefield.

And we are not even talking about global challenges, but about war on a fairly small territory. The Haass article quotes J.D. Vance as saying, “Essentially, we don’t have the capability to produce the amount of weapons Ukraine needs to win the war.”

A very strange statement.

Let’s compare the economies of the parties. The combined gross product of the US and EU in 2023 was $44 trillion.

Russia’s gross product is only $2 trillion. It is believed that, having equal potentials, Western countries defeated the “evil empire” in the “Cold War,” mainly due to the flexibility of liberal economies.

And here it is actually suggested that these victors of the USSR recognize their defeat before the autocratic economy of Russia, which is, moreover, several times smaller. If this is true, then it is necessary to rewrite current economic theories and recognize the advantage of centralized authoritarian economies, since liberal economies are so weak.

To summarize, it should be noted that the very discussion of “appeasement of the aggressor” and related proposals for a “ceasefire” entail disastrous consequences. A careful analysis of Moscow’s public statements makes it clear that its war is not for Ukrainian territories, but for the opportunity to once again become the “gendarme of Europe,” first and foremost, and for influence in other regions of the world.

Putin confirmed this once again in his Valdai speech when he said that “the next twenty years will be not less, but more difficult.” Careful observers at this point should have shuddered and realized - Ukraine is only the beginning.

In addition, a huge number of countries in Africa, Asia, and South America are now taking a neutral stance. They are waiting to see which side the scales of confrontation will swing to in order to be next to the winner.

And statements “about appeasement of the aggressor,” “avoiding escalation,” “not entering the conflict,” “about the weakness of the Western defense industry” only lead to the expansion of potential allies for autocracies, because they confidently incorporate all weak states into their sphere of influence - from Georgia to the countries of Africa and South America.

Only the determination of the West can stop them. How not to recall a quote attributed to British Prime Minister Winston Churchill: “If a country chooses shame between war and disgrace, it will get both war and disgrace.”

It is not even the next generations of Europeans and Americans who will pay a much higher price for the weakness and indecision of the current politicians, but the current generation, within the next five years.

The familiar system of world security has been destroyed, as the Kremlin has unceremoniously made sure of. It is no longer possible to restore it, much less preserve it. But this does not mean that one should admit defeat.

It is necessary to build a new system based on regional defense blocs with the transfer of authority, responsibility, and expenditures to local leaders. Naturally, with the active participation of the US as a partner of these regional military alliances. And Ukraine, which has the most powerful and trained army among European countries, could become the leader of such a bloc, uniting the Baltic and Scandinavian countries, which most acutely feel threatened by Russia.

This already now requires the US to be extremely active in the spheres of diplomacy and economics. The era of the “end of history“ is over, and Western democracies are obliged to increase their defense production and military power to counter the new “axis of evil” - Russia, DPRK and Iran. Ukraine will do the rest on its own.

It is possible, of course, to choose a strategy of non-interference and turn a blind eye to the growing threats to world security. But then we must accept the fact that soon, even Mexico will be oriented towards China and Russia.  

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post. 

Oleg Dunda is a Ukrainian lawmaker from Dnipro representing the Servant of the People party. He is a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on the Organization of State Power, Local Self-Government, Regional Development and Urban Planning, Chairperson of the Subcommittee on Construction and Design, and member of the interparliamentary friendship groups with France, the Baltic countries, the Czech Republic, and Luxembourg.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, December 4, 2024 6:56 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Visualizing Ukraine's Collapsing Front Lines Amid The Steady Russian Onslaught

https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1862854852663206243?ref_src=twsrc%
5Etfw


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Wednesday, December 4, 2024 7:25 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So many words, so little understanding.

But first, the nuclear issue: Dont you find it crazy that we're relying on RUSSIA'S forbearance not to descend into nuclear holocaust? After all, isn't this the nation and the leader that we (i.e. TPTB, SECOND, THGR) portray as uncaring of human life??

*****

We (TPTB, SECOND, THGR) are constantly misrepresenting Russia's goals. So, let's get real: it's not about taking over territory or invading Europe. Its about Ukraine being formally and constitutionally neutral, a non- NATO state..

And, cutting thru the fog about what that would mean for Ukraine, we actually have an extant example of what that could look like: Austria.

Russia would like Ukraine to be like Austria. Austria is a democracy, and constitutionally neutral. It will never be part of NATO. And yet, despite lack of formal NATO "protection", Austria remains safe and secure and prosperous.
Is being like Austria such a terrible outcome?

It seems to me that the fear mongering and obfuscation and hypocritical bleating about Ukraine aren't for Ukraine. Neutrality isn't a bad thing: Austria is a reasonable template for Ukraine's future.

Our goals have nothing to do with saving Ukraine, and everything to do with destroying Russia or - failing that- ensuring NATO'S continuing relevance/ survival. Even if it means grinding the Ukrainian people into paste.

----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Wednesday, December 4, 2024 5:50 PM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:

Russia may have violated the INF Treaty. Here’s how the United States appears to have done the same.[first]


https://thebulletin.org/2019/02/russia-may-have-violated-the-inf-treat
y-heres-how-the-united-states-appears-to-have-done-the-same
/




"Russia is solely responsible for the treaty's demise," Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement on Friday.

"With the full support of our Nato allies, the United States has determined Russia to be in material breach of the treaty, and has subsequently suspended our obligations under the treaty," he added.

Russia's foreign ministry confirmed the INF treaty was "formally dead" in a statement carried by state-run Ria Novosti news agency.

Back in February, President Donald Trump set the 2 August deadline for the US to withdraw if Russia didn't come into compliance.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49198565



As always comrade, you're wrong.

T


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Wednesday, December 4, 2024 5:54 PM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Visualizing Ukraine's Collapsing Front Lines Amid The Steady Russian Onslaught

https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1862854852663206243?ref_src=twsrc%
5Etfw







48 thousand men missing; oops.

T




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Wednesday, December 4, 2024 7:15 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
So many words, so little understanding.

Nobel Prize winner Simon Johnson believes Trump can do what Biden could not.
We will see if that is true on Jan 21, 2025. Or, maybe, Johnson should not have won the prize.

Ending Putin's Ukraine War Is 'Straightforward' for Trump: Nobel Laureate

Dec 04, 2024 at 12:39 PM EST

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-ukraine-plan-straightforward-nobel-priz
e-winner-1995598


Trump's desire to "confront China economically and strategically" would be strengthened by first "crushing Russia," claiming that this would "boost US prestige around the world and strengthen Trump's hand in dealing with China on other issues."

"Trump still could score a quick and impressive win against China by turning Russia entirely out of Ukraine and restoring the pre-invasion borders."

"It would also be straightforward," they added, citing Russia's heavy dependence on oil exports. "Trump can cut Russian net revenue from these exports to essentially zero from his first day. Without this revenue, the Russian war machine will grind to a halt."

"On his first day in office, Trump can announce that he will impose heavy US sanctions on any company that pays more than $15 per barrel for Russian oil (and on anyone who participates in any transaction above that level)," they wrote on Tuesday. "Any country that is deemed not to be fully cooperative with this policy should expect to face punitive tariffs."

Simon Johnson received the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics for his contributions to the field of political economy and his work on economic institutions.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, December 4, 2024 7:43 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:

Russia may have violated the INF Treaty. Here’s how the United States appears to have done the same.[first]


https://thebulletin.org/2019/02/russia-may-have-violated-the-inf-treat
y-heres-how-the-united-states-appears-to-have-done-the-same
/

THUGR:

"Russia is solely responsible for the treaty's demise," Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said

Well. OF COURSE, DUMMY! What could anyone expect neocon extraordinare Mike Pompous to say?
That it was all our fault for deploying medium-range missiles in Poland first, on the boldfaced lie that we were worried about IRAN?

If you believe that, I've got a bridge to sell you.


Russia is going to win this war, AND it's going to have its border security problems addressed.



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Wednesday, December 4, 2024 8:20 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


NeoCons, Raytheon and the corrupt Biden* administration have 47 days left to figure this out and remove their thumbprints from everything.

Tick Tock

--------------------------------------------------

Trump is fine.
He is also your current President.

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Wednesday, December 4, 2024 9:11 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


What do you think the chances are that Trump ends this and/or the Israel/Palestine conflict behind the scenes before Inauguration Day and Democrats try to claim that win for their own?

--------------------------------------------------

Trump is fine.
He is also your current President.

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Wednesday, December 4, 2024 9:44 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
What do you think the chances are that Trump ends this and/or the Israel/Palestine conflict behind the scenes before Inauguration Day and Democrats try to claim that win for their own?

Russia has been at war with Ukraine since Feb 20, 2014 and the Palestinians have been at war with Israel since May 14, 1948, so the chance that either war ends before Jan 21, 2025 is zero. But if either war ends, that is absolute proof that God exists and Trump is his miracle-making Prophet. All must bow down to the mighty Trump who God has blessed.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, December 4, 2024 10:04 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
What do you think the chances are that Trump ends this and/or the Israel/Palestine conflict behind the scenes before Inauguration Day and Democrats try to claim that win for their own?

Russia has been at war with Ukraine since Feb 20, 2014 and the Palestinians have been at war with Israel since May 14, 1948, so the chance that either war ends before Jan 21, 2025 is zero.




Hence why I never used the word "war".





Damn, dude. Even when you're trying to catch me up on some rhetorical bullshit you fail.

This is because you are a very stupid person, and you still haven't learned that you are way out of your league here.





To everybody else that reads this...

What Second was just trying to do there is the "We Didn't Start The Fire" gaslighting.

"You see... This Russia/Ukraine thing has been going on since 2014 and the Isreal thing has been going on since before 90% of the people on the planet were born, so Joe Biden* and Democrats didn't have anything to do with either of these problems."

Not working on anybody today, idiot.

This type of gaslighting only works when everyone is walking around with a fat wallet, and you guys fucked that one up too.


--------------------------------------------------

Trump is fine.
He is also your current President.

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Wednesday, December 4, 2024 11:56 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Because we care so much ...


Quote:

Blinken Ramps Up Pressure For Zelensky To 'Get Younger People Into The Fight'


https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/blinken-says-ukraine-needs-get-yo
unger-people-fighting-russia-2024-12-04
/

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Thursday, December 5, 2024 12:01 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


$50 billion buys a lot of people...

Quote:

Blinken confirms Ukraine to receive $50 billion transfer from frozen Russian assets


https://www.yahoo.com/news/blinken-confirms-ukraine-receive-50-2158171
44.html


Or, a lot of silence.

I wonder why Biden thought it necessary to preemptively pardon Hunter all the way back to 2014?



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Thursday, December 5, 2024 12:35 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
$50 billion buys a lot of people...

Quote:

Blinken confirms Ukraine to receive $50 billion transfer from frozen Russian assets



All politics completely aside, and I'm asking this question from a hypothetical bubble where no political bias resides...

Who decides something like this?

I wasn't aware of any court cases that would allow such a thing to take place.

Are there elected representatives of the government who are in charge of making these decisions, or are these decisions made by appointees who have nearly zero oversight or even news investigations on their work that they're able to do almost exclusively from the shadows? Are their any rules, or do we just do whatever we want here?




I'm asking because they've already done this type of shit in the Ghetto for generations. Not more than a few months ago people who lived in Dalton, IL were having their businesses shut down, and after the mayor bankrupted the city the police were selling off everything they took in raids as if it was all their own property and they were having a garage sale.

Maybe one day it's your house they're taking and selling out from under you.




Also... on the international level...

If this is the way that you're going to choose to carry yourself, you'd better make goddamned sure that you remain the most powerful entity forever.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump is fine.
He is also your current President.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, December 5, 2024 5:32 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
What do you think the chances are that Trump ends this and/or the Israel/Palestine conflict behind the scenes before Inauguration Day and Democrats try to claim that win for their own?

Russia has been at war with Ukraine since Feb 20, 2014 and the Palestinians have been at war with Israel since May 14, 1948, so the chance that either war ends before Jan 21, 2025 is zero.




Hence why I never used the word "war".





Damn, dude. Even when you're trying to catch me up on some rhetorical bullshit you fail.

This is because you are a very stupid person, and you still haven't learned that you are way out of your league here.





To everybody else that reads this...

What Second was just trying to do there is the "We Didn't Start The Fire" gaslighting.

"You see... This Russia/Ukraine thing has been going on since 2014 and the Isreal thing has been going on since before 90% of the people on the planet were born, so Joe Biden* and Democrats didn't have anything to do with either of these problems."

Not working on anybody today, idiot.

This type of gaslighting only works when everyone is walking around with a fat wallet, and you guys fucked that one up too.


--------------------------------------------------

Trump is fine.
He is also your current President.

For one fact, Trump is NOT currently President. Another fact: Trump is full of shit, as are his Trumptards. Do you Trumptards ever self-censor? Because the ones I know never stop running their mouths about how great they are and how bad their enemies are, whether its their ex-wives, or whoever isn't favorably impressed by the Trumptard.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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