REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Thursday, January 30, 2025 08:21
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Thursday, January 16, 2025 12:14 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Trump wants a ceasefire. The problem is that Russia thinks it’s winning.

By Joshua Keating | Jan 16, 2025, 6:30 AM CST

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/395105/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-dea
l-trump

. . . as Zelenskyy’s recent statements have indicated, the bigger concern is making sure Russia can’t simply rest and recover, then invade again, taking even more territory. Only a more permanent peace could prevent that. “A ceasefire is great from the Russians’ point of view, because it allows them to regroup their forces, and it gives them the initiative,” Galeotti said. “The Ukrainians are not going to be the ones to break the ceasefire if it’s Trump’s ceasefire, but that means they will never know if it’s going to be a day, a week or, a year, before Putin restarts the war.”

The topic of “security guarantees” makes many Ukrainians bristle. “We’ve already been through all this before,” Oleksandra Ustinova, a Ukrainian member of parliament, told reporters during a recent visit to Washington. She pointed to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Ukraine agreed to give up the nuclear weapons left on its territory after the Soviet collapse in exchange for guarantees from Russia, the US, and other countries that its sovereignty would be respected. More recently were the 2014 and 2015 Minsk Agreements, which aimed to bring an end to the fighting after Russia’s initial invasion of Ukrainian territory in 2014, but those agreements collapsed decisively in 2022 after years of violations.

“I cannot imagine our parliament voting for some big deal, if they believe that [the Russians] will be back in a few months, or in a few years, being much stronger,” said Ustinova.

The Ukrainians have always been clear about the security guarantee they want: full membership in NATO. This is what Zelenskyy said in his recent remarks could end the “hot phase” of the war.

NATO members are protected by Article 5 of the alliance’s charter, which states that an attack on one is an attack on all. In other words, if Russia went to war with Ukraine again, he’d be going to war with all the alliance’s members, including the United States, and they would be treaty-bound to defend it.

In many ways, the war in Ukraine has been a demonstration of the value of NATO membership: Russia has refrained from any attacks on NATO countries like Poland, despite billions of dollars worth of weaponry from NATO countries flowing over its border into Ukraine, where they are then used to kill Russian forces. Putin may not respect international law, but so far he has shown he respects Article 5.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 16, 2025 3:54 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Russia has rejected an idea of a ceasefire over and over and over, bc it would only give NATO a chance to re-arm Kiev.

PUTIN ON A CEASEFIRE
Quote:
During a press briefing on Thursday a reporter for the China Media Group asked Putin why he would not agree to a ceasefire.Putin responded: "It is worth stopping for a week—to give the enemy a chance to gain a foothold on these positions, to give them a break, to get the necessary ammunition. What we need is not a ceasefire, but peace. Long-term, durable, with guarantees for Russia and its citizens."

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-faces-question-china-news-ukra
ine-war-2004202

LAVROV ON A CEASEFIRE
Quote:
We cannot be satisfied with an empty conversation. So far, all we have heard is talk about the need to come up with some kind of truce. And it is not hidden that this ceasefire is necessary in order to buy time [for NATO] to continue pumping weapons into Ukraine. So that they could put themselves in order, carry out additional mobilization and so on.

A ceasefire is a road to nowhere. We need final legal agreements that will fix all the conditions for ensuring the security of the Russian Federation and, of course, the legitimate security interests of our neighbors, but in a context that will fix in an international legal way the impossibility of violating these agreements.

https://news-pravda.com/world/2024/12/26/941823.html

Also here
https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/sergei-lavrov-on-ukraine
-war-truce-is-a-path-to-nowhere/vi-AA1wwIpy

Somebody told Trump that a ceasefire is possible, and he went ahead on that notion. Now the Ukrainian peace effort is bogged down bc it's not. I predicted this would happen at least a month ago, in the "legitimate gripes" thread.

*****

UKRAINE never had nuclear weapons. They were Russian weapons deployed in Ukraine, much like we have nuclear weapons deployed in Turkey. If we were to draw them back, would Turkey have a legitimate claim on them?

*****

Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko have been pellucidly clear that they never intended to abide by the Minsk Agreements, and only used them to buy time to arm Ukraine. Those "years of violations", so carefully framed in the passive mode? The west's, not Russia's. And now Ukraine is complaining they didn't work?
Bullshit.

*****

People get confused because of lies like yours. Their thinking is distorted bc their information sources are corrupted.




-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Thursday, January 16, 2025 4:28 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Zelensky lies, just like you.
We can see how well Ukraine is doing recruiting soldiers bc the keep lowering the conscription age. And rather than inducing people to join voluntarily, Kiev is literally dragging men off the streets.
That tells you how well Ukraine is doing on the front line!

SECOND: Signym, my thesis is that nearly all misfortune is caused by the wrong thinking and actions of the unfortunate person or nation.

People have little control over the bigger aspects of their lives. Is it someone's fault that they were born Dalit female in India, a notoriously corrupt and abusive nation mired in poverty? Or born with a disability? I know you like to think that your fortune -such as it is - is all due to you. But in reality, it's about 95 pct luck, and only 5 pct pluck. ETA: And I mean that quantitatively. Assuming that you're $100 million wealthy, a single man, or a man in a dual income marriage, can expect to accumulate $5 million over a lifetime of white collar working, modest living, and cautious investing.


Quote:
A more commonly held way of looking at life is: It is not my fault! It is their fault. I am not to blame for what happened to me.
All people can do is react to the hand they were dealt. They can react rationally or self destructively, but they can't change their larger environment or the capacities they were born with.

Quote:
I'll give you examples of Ukraine's wrong thinking as the cause of Ukraine's problems:

Ukraine gave away its nukes in exchange for promises from Russia.

Ukraine never had nukes

Quote:
Ukraine did not buy or design a weapon to destroy the Kerch Strait Bridge as soon as Russia started building the bridge.
But then that would have started a war that NATO wasn't ready for.

Quote:
Ukraine wasn't ready for a Russian invasion.
Ukraine and NATO believed the propaganda that "Russia was a gas station masquerading as a country". The war, which the west provoked, was merely a pretext for "sanctions from hell" which were ASSUMED to collapse Russia's economy and lead to regime change. Military action, per se, was never expected to lead to victory.

Quote:
nUkraine's military and government are incompetent but saved from instantaneous defeat by Russia's greater incompetence.
Russia is fighting a war of attrition. NATO is fighting a war of territorial occupation. But without military industrial backing, NATO is losing both wars.

Quote:
Ukraine is fighting for its life because of faulty thinking. 6ixStringJack will be fighting for his life someday soon because of his faulty thinking about tobacco, alcohol, vaccines, dentists, unemployment versus working, etc.
SIX IMHO has made a number of poor life choices.

But, realistically, EVERYONE winds up fighting for their lives, no matter how careful they are of their health.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Friday, January 17, 2025 7:01 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


I am so proud of the Russians. Not making threats to nuke London shows maturity.

Russia says any British military role in Ukraine under new 100-year deal would be worrying

By Reuters | January 17, 2025, 3:31 AM CST

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-any-british-military-role-uk
raine-under-new-100-year-deal-would-be-2025-01-17/

MOSCOW, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Russia said on Friday that any placement of British military assets in Ukraine under a new 100-year partnership agreement between Kyiv and London would be of concern to Moscow.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was asked about the possibility of Britain setting up military bases in Ukraine under the agreement announced on Thursday by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

"Given that Britain is a NATO country, the advancement of its military infrastructure towards our borders is certainly a rather worrying element. In any case, it will be necessary to further analyse what will happen," Peskov said.

At Thursday's talks in Kyiv, Zelenskiy said he had spoken to Starmer about Kyiv's desire for Western peacekeeping troops to be deployed in Ukraine if the war with Russia ended.

Asked if Britain would contribute troops, Starmer said in an interview with Sky News that he had discussed this with Zelenskiy and other allies and Britain would "play our full part".

Peskov said Moscow also took a "negative" view of the prospect of British cooperation with Ukraine in the Sea of Azov, which he described as Russia's "internal sea".

The Azov Sea is bordered by southwest Russia, parts of southern Ukraine that Russia has seized in the war, and the Crimean peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, January 17, 2025 8:07 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


North Korea Deployed 12,000 Troops To Kursk In October. Three Months Later, A Third Are Dead Or Wounded.

The North Korean 11th Army Corps may need reinforcements — and soon.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/15/north-korea-deployed-
12000-troops-to-kursk-in-october-three-months-later-a-third-are-dead-or-wounded/

Injured North Koreans sometimes kill themselves, sparing their comrades the ugly responsibility. “They are utterly hardened types who, when wounded, follow a single pattern: pull the pin, put a grenade to their head and goodnight,” Demchenko wrote.

Incredibly, North Korean losses might be higher if not for their excellent marksmanship training. Unlike poorly trained Russian recruits, the typical North Korean infantryman has spent years preparing for battle. “The statistics on the small drones they have destroyed attest to this fact,” according to Demchenko.

Ukraine’s small explosive drones still kill a lot of North Koreans. But they’d kill even more if the North Koreans weren’t shooting down many of the drones.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, January 17, 2025 9:39 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


I know a way to defeat Russia and triple, maybe even quadruple my wealth. I love you, Donald Trump. You are the greatest! Here is how:

Europe is buying Russian gas at an unprecedented rate in 2025, spending billions of dollars the Kremlin can use to fund its war in Ukraine.

Data collected by commodities intelligence firm Kpler and analyzed by POLITICO reveals that in the first 15 days of 2025, the European Union imported 837,300 metric tons of liquefied natural gas from Russia. That marks a record high, up from the 760,100 tons during the same period last year.

“Russia’s ability to sustain its war efforts is deeply intertwined with its energy revenues,” the countries said in a leaked proposal. “We need to take a further leap and address the increasing Russian liquefied natural gas imports. As an end goal, it is necessary to ban the import of Russian gas and LNG at the earliest date possible.”

The EU is also under pressure to buy more fuel from the United States, with incoming President Donald Trump declaring that he wants to "drill, baby, drill" and boost gas exports.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has already backed the idea of buying more U.S. fuel to eradicate its Russian alternative.

“Why not replace it by American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices?" she said in November. "It’s something where we can get into a discussion, also [where] our trade deficit is concerned.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-devouring-russian-gas-at-record-spe
ed-despite-cut-off-sanctions-war-ukraine/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, January 18, 2025 5:49 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukrainian battlefield fortifications are sometimes constructed with little thought and zero planning, Denys Prokopenko, the commander of National Guard's 12th Special Purpose Brigade Azov, said in a Facebook post on Jan. 17.

January 17, 2025, 12:55 PM

https://english.nv.ua/nation/azov-officer-criticizes-ukrainian-battlef
ield-fortifications-50482593.html

“Officers have stopped thinking: either they were not trained, or others who never set foot near the area 'thought' for them,” the officer said.

“Even with resources, without knowing the fundamentals of organizing and constructing defenses (where and how to dig?), there will be no resilience.”

Prokopenko believes that “very soon,” the Russian military will overrun poorly thought-out fortifications.

He offered free training for officers based on his own experiences in fortifying defense lines.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, January 18, 2025 5:53 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russia is training schoolchildren to design, manufacture, and operate strike drones, likely as part of Russia's long-term force generation efforts and broader efforts to militarize Russian society. Russian student opposition outlet DOXA reported that Russian authorities spent roughly 540 billion rubles ($5.29 billion) training Russian schoolchildren to control drones and perform combat missions in 2024.[72] Russian schoolchildren reportedly used drone operation simulators to practice working with first-person view (FPV) strike drones and drones that drop munitions to identify and strike enemy targets and worked in drone production facilities. Putin stated in April 2023 that Russian schools should introduce drone courses, and the Kremlin launched the Unmanned Aerial Systems program in 2024, which includes drone training courses in schools.[73] DOXA also reported that some Russian schools are opening clubs for children as young as 10 years old to learn to design and control drones, conduct training flights, and participate in drone operation competitions.[74]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-17-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, January 18, 2025 5:55 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Putin signed a controversial decree, sparking fears of mobilization and indicating that the Russian army had a manpower shortage.

12:54 PM EST, January 17, 2025

https://essanews.com/putin-signs-controversial-decree-sparking-mobiliz
ation-fears,7115281290938497a

Vladimir Putin signed a decree conscripting citizens into the reserve, which may indicate preparations for a prolonged conflict. The Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, Alexei Zhuravlyov, emphasizes the necessity of mobilizing Russia's entire male population. This move is unlikely to be well-received by the public.

The decree contains two secret paragraphs regarding the number of citizens to be sent to camps and their training dates.

If the authorities indeed turn to young men from large cities, it could provoke social resistance against Vladimir Putin - according to independent media reports. Whether this will actually happen remains to be seen. One thing is certain: the president's decision indicates that the Russian army has a significant problem.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, January 19, 2025 8:44 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Of 16 Russian attacks on Saturday, 15 failed without any ground changing hands.

David Axe | Jan 18, 2025, 05:55pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/18/i-really-do-not-under
stand-a-ukrainian-drone-operator-remarked-after-defeating-yet-another-russian-attack-along-the-same-kursk-roads/

Russian air assault forces attacked the Ukrainian garrison in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast on or just before Saturday, rolling eight BMD infantry fighting vehicles along the very same roads—around the village of Viktorovka—they’ve been using since November for assaults on the 250-square-mile salient the Ukrainians carved out of Kursk back in August.

The result was predictable. Ukrainian forces anchored by the 22nd Mechanized Brigade and 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade destroyed four of the eight BMDs from the Russian 234th Air Assault Regiment. “I really do not understand the point of attacking at the place where they attack for the third month,” mused Kriegsforscher, a Ukrainian marine corps drone operator whose company knocked out one of the BMDs.

The repeated vehicular assaults along the same roads by the same Russian regiments, almost all ending in defeat for the Russians, are equally befuddling to the Russian rank and file. In sending vehicles and their crews on pointless “banzai attacks” across the drone-patrolled no-man’s-land in Kursk, Russian commanders gain almost nothing and lose everything, according to one Russian blogger. These stubborn commanders are “geniuses,” the blogger wrote sarcastically.

The predictable and costly assaults help explain the staggering Russian casualties in Kursk as Russia’s wider war grinds toward its fourth year. According to Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky, the 60,000-person Russian-North Korean field army in Kursk has suffered as many as 35,000 casualties trying to eject the 20,000 Ukrainians the oblast.

The Russian counteroffensive in Kursk that began in earnest in November has shrunk, but not eliminated, the Ukrainian-held salient. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin keeps pushing back the deadline for his forces to fully recapture Kursk. After several revisions amid the overall failure of Russian attacks in the oblast, last fall the Kremlin extended the deadline to February—only to later abandon that deadline, too.

Don’t be shocked if the Russians miss whatever the new deadline is. Saturday was a typical day along the Kursk front line. Russian and North Korean troops attacked from 16 directions, according to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies. Just one attack resulted in any Russian gains—around Viktorovka. But the Ukrainian 6th Ranger Regiment still controls most of the village.

Bloodied and surely traumatized, some Russian troops in Kursk once again are resorting to brutal war crimes as a way of venting their frustration and, they must hope, terrorizing their Ukrainian foes. Marines from the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade—one of two Russian marine brigades that have been destroyed and rebuilt several times in the 35 months since Russian widened its war on Ukraine—reportedly decapitated four Ukrainian prisoners and displayed the heads on pikes.

If history is any guide, the Russians’ crimes will fail to demoralize the Ukrainians. Indeed, they tend to have the opposite effect. When the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade stripped and executed nine Ukrainian prisoners in October, it triggered a series of deadly raids by Ukrainian troops deliberately targeting the Russian brigade.

In those retaliatory raids, the Ukrainians took no prisoners.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, January 19, 2025 9:10 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


By Shaun Walker in Kyiv | Sun 19 Jan 2025 03.00 EST

The occupying Russian soldiers paid little attention to the elderly woman shuffling through the farmland surrounding the villages outside Kyiv, taking her goat to pasture. But she was focused closely on them. After locating their positions, she headed back home with the goat, and later called her grandson, a soldier in the Ukrainian army, to give the coordinates.

The story is one of seven episodes, based on real events from the first year of Russia’s full-scale invasion but lightly fictionalised, that make up a feature film about the war in Ukraine, due out later this year. All seven of the shorts have one thing in common: they tell the story of the conflict from the perspective of animals.

Filming has been under way on the anthology War Through the Eyes of Animals since the first months of the war, when a group of Ukrainian film-makers decided that using animals to tell the story of Russia’s invasion would provide a new and unusual way to bring home the horror of war.

“Animals have no politics, but they can feel good and evil,” said Oleh Kokhan, the film’s producer, in an interview in Kyiv. “We also see this war is an ecocide, which will affect the ecology of Europe and the world.”

More at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/19/animals-can-feel-good-an
d-evil-film-puts-new-perspective-on-ukraine-war

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, January 20, 2025 6:49 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russia’s 1950s BTR-50s Are Lightly Armed, Thinly Protected—And Increasingly Precious As Newer Vehicles Run Out

The BTR-50 entered service in 1954—and arrived in Ukraine 69 years later.

By David Axe | Jan 19, 2025, 11:44pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/19/russias-btr-50s-are-l
ightly-armed-thinly-protected-and-increasingly-precious-as-newer-vehicles-run-out/

A year ago, independent analysts noted an uptick in activity at the Kremlin’s 1295th Central Base of Repairs and Storage of Tanks in Arsenyev in Russia’s Far East.

Technicians were reactivating dozens of 1950s-vintage BTR-50 tracked armored personnel carriers and driving them off the yard. “We found 63 BTR-50s at the 1295th which have all been removed and they seem to be in good condition,” analyst Highmarsed reported.

That’s two whole battalions of vehicles. All-terrain rides for hundreds of Russian troops. But to Highmarsed, there was another, darker implication. “I would expect to see more BTR-50 losses in the future,” the analyst predicted.

Sure enough, the Russians have written off no fewer than 10 BTR-50s that the Oryx intelligence collective has tallied. The survivors are still in action, however—some sporting new turrets, and most with add-on armor for deflecting the ever-present explosive drones that have made it extremely dangerous for any Russian vehicle to break cover.

If anything, the “museum pieces”—as one observer described them—are becoming more common along the 800-mile front line as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds toward its fourth year. But their resurgence may be temporary. All Russian vehicles are endangered species in a war increasingly dominated by drones.

The BTR-50 is a 15-ton, diesel-fueled armored tractor with two crew and space for up to 20 passengers. It usually packs a heavy machine gun. The BTR-50 entered service in 1954 and, for the next 12 years, was the Soviet army’s main fighting vehicle. BTR-50 crews would haul infantry into battle, protect the soldiers as they dismounted and then support them with its machine gun.

The BTR-50 is lightly-armed and thinly-armored, however. When the heavier, and more heavily-armed, BMP-1 debuted in 1966, thousands of BTR-50s cascaded to second-line units. The BTRs hauled artillery, engineers and anti-aircraft guns until MT-LB tractors began displacing the older vehicles from those roles, too.

As of late 2022, the Russian army operated just a handful of geriatric BTR-50s. That the Russians held onto a few BTR-50s should come as no surprise. “Russia sees no need to completely change out its inventory of older vehicles, and instead has adopted a hybrid approach towards modernization,” Lester Grau and Charles Bartles explained in their definitive The Russian Way of War.

But these operational BTR-50s performed secondary support roles far from any enemy forces. Meanwhile, a few thousand of the old vehicles rusted away in storage. Two years ago, it would have been inconceivable for these surplus BTR-50s to roll into action in Ukraine. But that was before the Russians lost more than 15,000 armored vehicles and other pieces of heavy equipment.

Given that Russian industry builds maybe 200 BMP-3 fighting vehicles and 90 T-90M tanks annually as well as a few hundred other armored vehicles including BTR-82 wheeled fighting vehicles, the vast majority of the replacement vehicles the Kremlin must generate to make good combat losses unavoidably comes from once-vast stocks of old Cold War equipment.

Three years ago, storage yards held tens of thousands of old tanks, fighting vehicles and other vehicles. But the stocks weren’t infinite. As they began to deplete, the Russians began deploying more civilian-style vehicles for direct assaults on Ukrainian positions: cars, vans, all-terrain vehicles, motorcycles and even electric scooters.

Today, it’s practically routine for some unarmored civilian vehicle packed with terrified Russian infantry to barrel toward Ukrainian lines—likely heading for fiery destruction.

The deployment of civilian vehicles is one sign of stress in Russia’s equipment-generation effort. The continued sightings of up-armored BTR-50s is another. Recent satellite imagery indicates even deeper stress. In some of what were once the most abundant storage yards, there are no longer any recoverable vehicles. Not even 70-year-old BTR-50s.

That doesn’t mean Russia won’t keep fighting. It does mean its forces will increasingly fight on foot. Incredibly, foot-borne infantry often fare better than vehicles do under relentless drone attack. The former are fleeting targets. The latter are usually pretty hard to miss.

“Every single time” Russian regiments attempt a vehicle assault, “the result is zero,” one Russian blogger lamented recently in a missive translated by Estonian analyst WarTranslated. But “infantry, with the support of artillery and drones, slowly but surely take tree line after tree line.”

There’s one thing leg infantry can’t do, however. They can’t exploit breaches in enemy defenses in order to swiftly and deeply penetrate enemy territory. That’s why recent Russian advances have mostly been measured in yards, not miles.

And why the surviving BTR-50s are, despite their advanced age, still a precious commodity for the Russians.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, January 20, 2025 9:11 AM

THG


Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:

What an evil selfish prick Putin is. Does anyone but him benefit from this? And now? After 2 years of covid crap? Kill thousands and crash the world economy so he can redraw a MAP?!?? What fcking dinosaur. I look forward to watching this blow up in his face.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/world/europe/putin-speech-russia-uk
raine.html

Word by Word and Between the Lines: A Close Look at Putin’s Speech



According to a selective study by Rosstat for April 2021, the average accrued (gross) salary in Russia amounted to 56,280 rubles. 56,200 Russian Ruble =
550.54 US Dollars.


There's a future to look forward to. Add to that if you bad mouth Putin you go to jail. My larger point is they have no rights. An example of this is the rock band, Pusssy Riot. This is what Trump wants to do here.

Billionaire tech executives are center stage at the inaugural. The people who control the message. Not the evangelical community. It is the same temperature as Barracks inaugural, and as the cars drive down the roads in Washington the streets are mostly barren. Tic tock...

Prediction; when the bottom falls out for MAGA members average income, we'll hear a lot of whining across the country about it. If there're lucky, what Biden has done will continue to improve our economy despite what Trump does.

T

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Tuesday, January 21, 2025 6:51 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky published a video on January 20 showing an interrogation of a North Korean prisoner of war (POW), who states that he served in a reconnaissance battalion and that some North Korean underwent training with Russian heavy military equipment.[79] The North Korean POW claimed that he did not know that he would fight for Russia before arriving in Russia.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-20-2025

There are 3 different URLs attached to [79].

1. https://suspilne.media/929093-zelenskij-pokazav-nove-video-dopitu-polo
nenogo-soldata-kndr/

2. https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/13037

3. https://meduza.io/feature/2025/01/20/voyna

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Tuesday, January 21, 2025 12:15 PM

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Western Companies Still Financing Putin's War in Ukraine

By Agathe Demarais | January 21, 2025, 5:14 AM

https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/21/russia-ukraine-war-sanctions-west
ern-companies-profits-putin/

. . . the hundreds of Western firms staying in Russia are helping Moscow finance the war in Ukraine. The data is eye-popping. In 2022 and 2023, firms from the G-7, European Union, and like-minded economies generated around $370 billion in revenues on Russian soil, which was more than Moscow’s military budget over the same period. In the first two years of the war, Western firms transferred more than $11 billion in corporate taxes to Russian state coffers, with Austrian bank Raiffeisen alone accounting for one-tenth of this amount. The data is not available yet for 2024, but a ballpark estimate suggests that Western firms probably paid another $4-6 billion in corporate taxes, bringing the total to roughly $16 billion funneled to the Kremlin since the invasion began.

Two data points help put this figure into context. First, $16 billion is enough for Moscow to pay for around 5,300 Iskander missiles, 1,100 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, or 320,000 Shahed drones. For comparison, Russia’s massive attack against Ukraine last Christmas used 78 missiles of various types in addition to 106 Shahed drones and decoys. Second, the amount Western firms have paid in Russian corporate taxes since the start of the war is roughly equivalent to Germany’s entire military, humanitarian, and financial support to Ukraine over the same period. But money is not the only measure. For Moscow, the presence of Western firms has substantial propaganda value, as it supports the Kremlin’s talking point that the Russian market is too important for Western firms to abandon.

Download the free book by this article's author Backfire : How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests from https://libgen.is//search.php?req=Agathe+Demarais

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Wednesday, January 22, 2025 6:03 AM

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Acting Kursk Oblast Governor Alexander Khinshtein's recent appointment has thus far failed to solve or distract from Russia's failure to adequately respond to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Khinshtein to this post on December 5, 2024, following intense backlash for failing to communicate with or support Kursk Oblast residents displaced by the Ukrainian incursion - scapegoating then-Kursk Oblast Governor Alexei Smirnov for Russia's failure to respond.[17] Russian opposition media and local Kursk Oblast news outlets reported that residents of Sudzhansky, Korenevsky, Bolshesoldatsky, and Glushkovsky raions – all on the frontline in Kursk Oblast – protested in front of the Kursk Oblast Administration building on January 18 and 21, demanding to meet with Khinshtein.[18] The protestors recorded an appeal to Khinshtein on January 21 asking him to address insufficient permanent housing for residents, issues with temporary accommodation centers, and his lack of dialogue with Kursk Oblast residents – the latter of which was one of Khinshtein's stated priorities following his appointment.[19] Local Kursk Oblast media reported that Khinshtein's advisor, Viktoria Penkova, met with the protestors, and the Kursk Oblast Administration Press Service stated that authorities informed the protestors of "necessary explanations and consultations" during the meeting.[20] Putin likely appointed Khinshtein to appear dedicated to solving social issues in Kursk Oblast and to quell local protests, and Khinshtein's failure to thus far fulfill this role in his tenure as acting governor undermines this intended effect.[21]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-21-2025

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Wednesday, January 22, 2025 6:30 AM

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The case surrounding the disappearance of a Russian helicopter in October 2023 has been brought to court in Sebastopol. Last May, Captain Igor Pashkov went to court to admit his mistake.

On October 18, 2023, a Russian Mi-8 helicopter disappeared in Crimea. It wasn't until May 2024 that Pashkov, “a deputy air defense officer on duty at the time” according to The Moscow Time, admitted that he was behind the destruction of the craft. According to the report, the officer received an initial alert about the approach of “a low-flying, low-speed aerial target”. The nature of the helicopter was later clarified in follow-up reports, which Pashkov ignored. “Two minutes after the initial message, a missile fired by the Tor-M2DT anti-aircraft missile system destroyed the target”. He thought he was dealing with a drone...

The captain was sentenced to three years' imprisonment for negligence, and must also pay 50,000 euros to the Russian ministry for damages and 10,000 euros to the widows of the victims.

On the Russian side, friendly fire isn't uncommon. Recently, on January 1 to be precise, the Russian Telegram channels Fighterbomber and Russian Aviation reported that a Mi-8 helicopter had been destroyed. According to Defence24, “the aircraft fell victim to its own anti-aircraft defense”. On January 10, several Telegram channels also reported that a North Korean-made surface-to-air missile (SAM) system in service in Russia had been shot down by a Russian drone.

https://www.tagtik.co.uk/en/news/conflicts/russians-make-a-string-of-f
atal-errors.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 22, 2025 6:38 AM

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Russian ‘Crutch Battalions’ Full Of Limping Soldiers Are Easy Targets For Ukrainian Drones

‘What the f—?’ a Russian soldier mutters as his wounded comrades are ordered to limp into battle on crutches.

By David Axe | Jan 21, 2025, 06:45pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/21/what-the-f--a-russian
-soldier-mutters-as-his-wounded-comrades-are-ordered-to-limp-into-battle-on-crutches/

Despite losing more than 800,000 troops killed and wounded in the first three years of its wider war on Ukraine, the Russian military has still managed to sustain a front-line force of no fewer than 600,000 troops in Ukraine and western Russia. That’s enough people to give Russian field armies a manpower edge over Ukrainian forces in all of the most important sectors of the wider war.

But that doesn’t mean the Kremlin isn’t struggling to generate fresh troops. At least one desperate Russian command, the 20th Combined Arms Army, has formed assault groups made up of walking wounded—including injured men walking with the aid of crutches—and sent them into battle with predictably tragic results.

There were rumors several months ago that some Russian commanders were ordering wounded men back into action. Perhaps the first clear evidence of the “crutch battalions” appeared on social media last week. A Ukrainian drone spotted a Russian assault group largely made up of men on crutches limping into position to attack Ukrainian positions around Pokrovsk, a fortress city in eastern Ukraine that’s the current locus of the Russian war effort in the east.

Bomb-dropping drones made quick work of the attackers, ruthlessly slaughtering them despite their injuries and their obviously limited offensive potential.

What may at first have seemed like an anomaly—a bizarre waste of lives potentially ordered by one cruel Russian commander—now seems more systemic. On or just before Tuesday, a Russian soldier from the 20th CAA recorded a video of walking wounded assembling for an assault in the forests apparently outside Pokrovsk. “Man is using crutches for a mission,” the soldier mused in the video, helpfully translated by Estonian analyst WarTranslated. “What the fuck?”

The proliferation of crutch battalions across at least one front of Russia’s war on Ukraine belies the huge size of the Russian force in Ukraine. Yes, there are 600,000 Russians in eastern and southern Ukraine as well as around the small salient Ukrainian troops occupy in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast. No, not all of those 600,000 troops are truly fit for combat.

The stress on the Kremlin’s manpower system is only growing as the expansion of the Ukrainian drone corps, and Russia’s loss of 15,000 combat vehicles, compels Russian commanders to hold back their few surviving modern tanks and fighting vehicles and send in the infantry, instead—on foot and often without a lot of support.

Infantry-first assaults work. Individual soldiers spread out on rough terrain are harder targets for Ukraine’s ever-present drones than mechanized groups with big, easy-to-spot tanks and fighting vehicles.

“Every single time” Russian regiments attempt a vehicle assault, “the result is zero,” one Russian blogger lamented recently in a missive translated by WarTranslated. But “infantry, with the support of artillery and drones, slowly but surely take tree line after tree line.”

The cost to the infantry is staggering, however. Daily Russian casualties have spiked as Russian doctrine has evolved to favor infantry over vehicles. According to Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the top Ukrainian commander, Russia suffered 434,000 casualties including 150,000 dead in 2024. That’s more killed and injured Russian troops than in the previous two years combined.

Ukrainian losses are much lower: 43,000 killed and 370,000 injured in total since February 2022, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky said in December.

Attacking with infantry rather than vehicles leverages a Russian asset—sheer manpower—but risks squandering that asset for the relatively modest territorial gains the Russians have registered in the last year.

People are a renewable resource, but not quickly or easily renewable. That more Russians are limping into battle on crutches is a clear sign the Kremlin is expending its human resources faster than it’s renewing them.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, January 22, 2025 7:56 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Nobody cares.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Wednesday, January 22, 2025 4:01 PM

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U.S. Sanctions Trigger Russian Oil Exodus

By Alex Kimani - Jan 22, 2025, 11:00 AM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Sanctions-Trigger-Russian-Oil
-Exodus.html

• New US sanctions have led to a significant reduction in Russian oil exports as traders halt offers.

• Indian refiners, including Bharat Petroleum, are struggling to secure Russian oil for March delivery.

• Standard Chartered predicts that the sanctions will remove more Russian barrels from the market and lead to higher oil prices.

Middlemen who supply Russian oil have stopped offering cargoes after the latest U.S. sanctions imposed by the Biden administration targeting Russian producers, tankers and insurers, Bharat Petroleum CFO has revealed. The sanctions have targeted Surgutneftgas and Gazprom Neft, two Russian oil firms that handle 25% of Russian oil exports. The two companies shipped an average of 970,000 bbls a day in 2024. Bharat Petroleum and other Indian state refiners buy Russian oil in the spot market, mainly from traders.

"We have not received any new offers for the March window (delivery). Traders are asking us to wait. We are waiting to get offers," Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta told Reuters on Wednesday.

"We are not expecting the similar number of cargoes that we used to get in the months of December and January," he added.

Earlier, India announced that it will abide by the sanctions and turn away sanctioned tankers. Previously, we reported that the sanctions would severely disrupt Russian oil exports to India and China--the biggest buyers of Russian crude--and could also give Trump more leverage in future negotiations as he tries to end the war in Ukraine. Last year, India briefly overtook China as the largest buyer of Russian crude. However, India's import of Russian oil in November plummeted 55% Y/Y to its lowest point since June 2022. This could be the result of the country trying to diversify its oil supplies to avoid overlying on a single country.

Standard Chartered has predicted that the strength in oil markets in the early innings of the new year is likely to continue, powered by, among other things, the removal of more Russian barrels from the market following the sanctions. According to StanChart, the new restrictions roughly triple the number of directly sanctioned Russian crude oil tankers, enough to affect around 900 thousand barrels per day (kb/d). Whereas it’s highly likely that Russia will try to circumvent the sanctions by employing even more shadow fleet tankers and ship-to-ship transfers, StanChart sees 500kb/d of displacements over the next six months.

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Wednesday, January 22, 2025 5:02 PM

THG


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Zelensky lies, just like you.

We can see how well Ukraine is doing recruiting soldiers bc the keep lowering the conscription age. And rather than inducing people to join voluntarily, Kiev is literally dragging men off the streets.
That tells you how well Ukraine is doing on the front line!



But hey, nobody cares.

T

BREAKING: US THREATENS Russia To End War, Russian Spy Ship INTERCEPTED |



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Thursday, January 23, 2025 6:51 AM

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“Not a single fighter of the unit was injured.” But that doesn’t mean they won.

By David Axe | Jan 22, 2025, 06:41pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/22/like-the-spartans-in-
thermopylae-a-dozen-ukrainian-commandos-battled-scores-of-north-koreans-for-eight-long-hours-in-kursk/

The Russians may be able to tap vast reserves of North Korean troops. The North Korean army has a million people under arms. Pentagon officials told The New York Times they expect additional North Korean forces to deploy to Kursk in the coming months.

The Ukrainians cannot count on their own allies to send troops—or much in the way of other aid. The embattled governing party in Germany has blocked $3.1 billion in planned support for Ukraine. The administration of Pres. Donald Trump in the United States has frozen foreign aid for 90 days; its strategists are mulling deep cuts to U.S. military activities in Europe.

When the last few batches of U.S. aid that former Pres. Joe Biden approved finally arrive in Ukraine, there could be a long gap in U.S. support for Kyiv’s war effort. A February election in Germany will determine the future of that country’s own contributions to the war.

The Ukrainian commandos’ eight-hour battle in Kursk 10 days ago may have ended with the commandos retreating, but at least they inflicted heavy losses on the attacking North Koreans. The next battle might not end so favorably for the commandos as one-time allies abandon them.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 23, 2025 6:56 AM

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The Kremlin has launched an information operation that seeks to create the false impression that the Russian economy is performing well despite numerous continued indicators of macroeconomic distress. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed during a meeting on economic issues on January 22 that 2024 was a "strong year" for the Russian economy.[1] Putin claimed that Russia has a manageable budget deficit of 1.7 percent and achieved a 26 percent increase in non-oil-and-gas revenue to 25.6 trillion rubles (approximately $257.9 billion) in 2024 and announced a retroactive 9.5 percent increase in insurance and military pensions to address rising Russian inflation. Bloomberg reported on January 21 that the Russian Finance Ministry released a report projecting economic strength and suggesting that Russian budget revenue in December 2024 reached a record high of over 4 trillion rubles (about $40 billion) — a 28 percent increase compared to December 2023 and the highest level recorded since 2011.[2] The data fails to account for Russia's unsustainable levels of defense spending, rampant inflation, a growing deficit and the erosion of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, however.[3] ISW continues to observe macroeconomic data that directly contradict the Kremlin's claims that the Russian economy is performing well. The Kremlin has recently adopted policies aimed at increasing defense spending all while Russian society faces labor shortages, broader demographic issues, declining savings, and increasing reliance on bailouts as the Russian economy faces rising interest rates, inflated salaries, and deteriorating production capacity.[4] These economic realities suggest that the Kremlin's efforts to posture economic strength are largely an information operation aimed at reassuring domestic audiences and posturing Russian strength abroad while masking the true challenges Russia's economy is facing, particularly heightened due to its war against Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-22-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 23, 2025 7:04 AM

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Trump's ultimatum to Putin sparks uproar among Russian media

By Mateusz Czmiel | 2:28 PM EST, January 22, 2025

https://conflictwatcher.com/trumps-ultimatum-to-putin-sparks-uproar-am
ong-russian-media,7117099026266241a

Lieutenant Colonel of the Russian Guard Zakhar Prilepin believes that "no one will agree to this primitive blackmail."

"We must prepare for a long war and a worsening economic situation, but Ukraine should prepare for destruction, for the deconstruction of statehood through millions of fatalities as a result of resistance to the liberation forces of the Russian Army. Lay down your arms before it's too late."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 23, 2025 3:51 PM

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Trump says it’s Putin’s fault Ukraine war isn’t over

U.S. president also says he’ll ask NATO allies to raise defense spending to 5 percent of GDP.

By Zoya Sheftalovich and Camille Gijs | January 23, 2025 6:17 pm CET

https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-blames-putin-for-ongoing-ukraine
-war/

Trump also took a dig at Putin's 2024 presidential election result, which he "won" with an improbably 88 percent of support, calling it "frankly ridiculous."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 23, 2025 3:59 PM

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Biden supplied the Ukrainian military with more than 10,000 Javelin anti-tank guided missiles, or ATGMs.

The $200,000, shoulder-fired missile, guided by an infrared seeker over a distance farther than two miles, packs a 20-pound warhead that can destroy or at least immobilize any tank. Ukrainian stocks of Javelins peaked in 2022, according to one Russian blogger.

But “they still have enough,” the blogger added — and the missiles are proving to be a major obstacle to the Russian effort to eject Ukrainian forces from the 250 square miles they occupy in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

The 60,000-strong Russian-North Korean force in Kursk tends to attack on foot owing to a growing shortage of modern armored vehicles. But when it does mount a mechanized assault, Ukrainian missile teams armed with Javelins are waiting just past the outermost lines of mines and tiny explosive drones. “At the front line, our tanks are targeted by ATGMs,” the blogger complained.

“As a result, our tanks can only operate from concealed positions,” the blogger explained. That is, they’re all but useless in their intended role: closing with and directly firing on the enemy.

The Ukrainian air assault brigades’ Javelin teams might be the most notoriously bloodthirsty missileers in Kyiv’s 800,000-strong military.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/22/one-ukrainian-marine-
corps-javelin-missile-team-destroyed-seven-russian-vehicles-in-two-days-they-were-vehicles-russia-couldnt-afford-to-lose/

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Friday, January 24, 2025 8:03 AM

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Russia is reportedly planning to deploy additional North Korean forces, missiles, artillery systems, and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to Kursk Oblast to support Russian long-range fire operations. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov told The War Zone in an article published on January 22 that North Korea will deploy an unspecified number of additional missile and artillery troops to Kursk Oblast at an unspecified future time.[1] Budanov reported that North Korea is unlikely to deploy a large number of additional ground combat troops, however. Budanov stated that North Korea has provided Russia with roughly 120 M-1989 Koksan 170mm self-propelled artillery systems and 120 M-1991 240mm MLRS since November 2024 and will likely send at least 120 more of each system in the future. The GUR previously reported in November 2024 that North Korea had provided Russia with roughly 100 of each of these systems as of October 2024.[2] Budanov stated that North Korea plans to provide Russia with 150 additional KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles in 2025 and sent Russia 148 KN-23 missiles in 2024. Budanov noted that North Korean troops typically operate North Korean-provided weapons in Kursk Oblast and are also training Russian forces on these systems. A US senior defense official recently told the New York Times (NYT) that additional North Korean forces will arrive in Russian "within the next two months (roughly mid-March 2025)."[3]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-23-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, January 24, 2025 8:19 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Nobody cares.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Friday, January 24, 2025 9:25 AM

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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Nobody cares.
You mean that people who are a "nobody" don't care. By "nobody" I mean angry poor white trash, the kind of people who feel weirdly oppressed by news articles about Trump (“Fake News!”) and Ukraine (“More Fake News!”):

Trump tells Putin to end 'ridiculous war' in Ukraine or face new sanctions

January 23rd, 2025

By Sarah Rainsford, Eastern Europe correspondent in Kyiv
and Robert Greenall, BBC News

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjw4q7v7ez1o

In his Truth Social post: "I'm going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR," he wrote.

"Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT'S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don't make a 'deal', and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries."

Continuing, he wrote: "Let's get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with! We can do it the easy way, or the hard way - and the easy way is always better. It's time to 'MAKE A DEAL'."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, January 24, 2025 9:48 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Nobody cares.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Friday, January 24, 2025 1:05 PM

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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Nobody cares.
Trump told Putin to surrender or die. Trump cares:

What part of Putin’s capitulation demands don’t you understand?

By Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth, Opinion Contributors | 01/24/25 7:00 AM ET

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5103281-putin-end-game-u
kraine/

Russian President Vladimir Putin made his duplicitous position crystal clear on this week when he said he was “willing to negotiate with the United States about the war in Ukraine” but kept up his insistence about Ukraine’s full capitulation.

That same day, during a Russian Security Council meeting alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov he “reiterated Russia’s willingness to engage in peace negotiations with the U.S.;” however, but added that any peace settlement should “eliminate the root causes” of the war in Ukraine.

What are these “root causes”? Lavrov had described them last month as NATO’s “aggressive absorption” of Eastern Europe — supposedly in violation of its promises — and alleged Ukrainian government hostility toward ethnic Russians, their culture, their media and their language.

But let’s be real here — NATO had nothing to do with this. Mikhail Gorbachev, the late former leader of the Soviet Union, acknowledged there had been no promises not to enlarge NATO at the end of the Cold War. Moreover, as Putin’s war ground to a standoff, Moscow pulled troops and equipment off the border of Finland and out of Kaliningrad to fight in Ukraine. If he is afraid of a NATO invasion either now or in the near future, that’s a very funny way to show it.

But there is more. As the Atlantic Council has reported, “Ever since the abortive peace talks of spring 2022 … Russia has insisted that any peace deal must include territorial concessions from Kyiv along with Ukrainian neutrality and the country’s comprehensive demilitarization.” Those territorial concessions include Crimea — illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 — and the partially occupied Ukrainian provinces of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which were illegally annexed in 2022.

Other non-negotiable demands include Ukraine officially “giving up its pursuit of NATO membership” and accepting “extensive limitations on the size of its armed forces and on the kinds of weapons systems it is allowed to possess.”

No mention of European peacekeeping forces or the return of the Kursk Oblast; however, they would likely reject the former and demand the latter.

Putin’s Presidential advisor Nikolai Patrushev left no doubt about his plans for Ukraine when he said, “It can’t be ruled out that Ukraine will cease to exist at all in the coming year.”

As Secretary of State Marco Rubio described in his Senate confirmation hearing: “Putin’s goal is to have maximum leverage to basically impose neutrality on Ukraine, refit and then come back and do it again in four to five years.”

So what part of Putin’s capitulation demands does the West not understand? What part of Russia’s complete genocide of Ukraine is not clear? Where do you begin to negotiate with this frame of mind?

You do not — and you make it clear to Putin that he will either leave Ukraine on his own accord or be removed.

Other than the occupation of 18 percent of Ukraine and a nuclear arsenal, Putin has little leverage. His military has been decimated, sustaining 823,980 casualties in three years. He has been forced to turn to Iran, North Korea, and Chechnya for ammunition, weapons and soldiers. His economy is on the brink of collapse, and Russian influence is waning with the fall of the Bashar Assad regime in Syria.

On Tuesday President Trump said Putin was losing in Ukraine, commenting that “he isn’t doing so well,” and that he was “grinding it out.” He added, “Most people thought that war would have been over in about one week and now you are into three years.”

Absent was the Bidenesque fear of Putin’s evergreen nuclear bluffing. In its place a president confident he already holds the winning hand in Ukraine. He drove that point home, mocking Putin’s wartime leadership by remarking, “That’s no way to run a country.”

So why fold that hand now?

On Tuesday, Trump threatened to impose “high levels” of tariffs and sanctions against Russia if there is no deal to end the war in Ukraine. He told Putin “it was time to settle his ridiculous War,” adding “We can do it the easy way, or the hard way — and the easy way is always better… It’s time to make a deal. No more lives should be lost!!!”

Last week, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz said that Trump was “ready to lift restrictions on the supply of long-range weapons to Ukraine to force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table.”

On Wednesday, Trump gave his special envoy to Ukraine and Russia — retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg — a 100-day deadline to end the conflict.

The “root cause” of the war in Ukraine is Putin. He has no winning hand and should not be extended a lifeline or any face-saving measures. Trump’s message to Putin should be to leave Ukraine or risk losing your army and your country.

Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army military intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, January 24, 2025 1:11 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Nobody cares.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Friday, January 24, 2025 1:40 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Trump cares:

President Donald Trump said Wednesday he would impose high tariffs on Russia if President Vladimir Putin does not bring a stop to the "ridiculous" war in Ukraine.

"Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE," Trump said in a post to Truth Social. "If we don’t make a 'deal,' and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2025/01/22/trump-russia-tari
ffs-putin-ukraine-war/77882756007/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, January 24, 2025 2:30 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
The 60,000-strong Russian-North Korean force in Kursk tends to attack on foot owing to a growing shortage of modern armored vehicles.


Oh, so it's 60,000 now!


*****

What I predicted before Trump was elected: Trump would try to "maximum pressure" Putin and ram thru a deal quickly. I also said I was worried what Trump's ego might prompt him to do when he found out it wasn't going to work.

So far, according to prediction.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Friday, January 24, 2025 3:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It's 60 Bazillion!

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Friday, January 24, 2025 4:57 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Civilians Flee Ukrainian Drone Strike On Russian Refinery

https://funker530.com/video/civilians-flee-ukrainian-drone-strike-on-r
ussian-refinery



Ukrainian SOF Discusses Capturing North Korean POW

https://funker530.com/video/ukrainian-sof-discusses-capturing-north-ko
rean-pow



Ukrainian Drone Intercepted Over Engels

https://funker530.com/video/ukrainian-drone-intercepted-over-engels



Drones Intercept Drones Over Ukraine
https://funker530.com/video/drones-intercept-drones-over-ukraine
Members of the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces have released more footage showing them bringing down Zala-Aero reconnaissance drones over Ukraine. It's unclear exactly where the drones were brought down, but the footage was just recently released suggesting that the interceptions occurred within the last few days.

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Friday, January 24, 2025 5:50 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It's 60 Bazillion!

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
. That reminds me of a joke from the GWB era.

Many nationalities were fighting in Iraq as part of the "coalition of the willing". At one point, and aide tells GWB "Sir! I've just been informed that four Brazilians died in the war!“

GWB blanches, pauses for a moment and asks quietly

“Tell me. How many is a brazillion?“

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Friday, January 24, 2025 6:21 PM

THG


Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:

What an evil selfish prick Putin is. Does anyone but him benefit from this? And now? After 2 years of covid crap? Kill thousands and crash the world economy so he can redraw a MAP?!?? What fcking dinosaur. I look forward to watching this blow up in his face.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/world/europe/putin-speech-russia-uk
raine.html

Word by Word and Between the Lines: A Close Look at Putin’s Speech



T
Is Donald Trump Russia's Friend Or Foe? | Week 3 Of Crazy Russian News In Review



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Friday, January 24, 2025 6:31 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Jan 24, 2025, 04:50pm EST

An ex-Danish Leopard 1A5 tank belonging to a Ukrainian army brigade survived at least eight hits by Russian first-person-view drones before potentially three more explosive FPV drones finally finished it off.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/24/a-ukrainian-leopard-1
a5-tank-shrugged-off-eight-russian-drones-proving-its-add-on-armor-works/

Russian forces proudly posted a video montage of the lengthy bombardment, but it’s not entirely good news for the Russians—nor bad news for the Ukrainians.

While losing any Leopard 1A5 is painful for Ukrainian forces who waited more than a year to receive significant numbers of the 1980s-vintage tanks from a German-Danish-Dutch consortium, that one of the Leopards survived a Russian drone swarm means Ukrainian efforts to up-armor the tanks seem to be working.

The 40-ton, four-person Leopard 1A5 is a fast and maneuverable tank with accurate fire controls for its reliable 105-millimeter main gun. Its greatest weakness has always been its thin armor protection: a Leopard 1A5’s base armor is just 70 millimeters thick at its thickest. A newer Leopard 2A4 has four times as much protection.

As the first few Leopard 1A5s—out of at least 155 the consortium has pledged—began arriving in Ukraine in late 2023, the Ukrainians immediately got to work addressing the tanks’ biggest flaw. “The problems of reinforcing the armor are already being solved by Ukrainian engineers,” Ukrainian ICTV reported.

Over the next year, the engineers added layers of explosive reactive armor, which bursts outward when struck in order to deflect incoming rounds. They also bolted on hinged screens covered in netting that can trap FPV drones in the instant before they strike.

All the add-on armor seems to have protected the Leopard 1A5 that ate up to 11 Russian drones recently. After repeated hits, the tank still managed to move out—only to get chased down by additional drones. Finally immobilized, the tank was probably a total write-off after the ninth, 10th or 11th hit.

It’s unclear whether the four crew survived, but there are reasons to be optimistic. To reduce the risk of 105-millimeter rounds cooking off in the turret after an enemy hit, Leopard 1A5 crews stow only a few of the tank’s 42 rounds in the turret: the rest are tucked into the hull.

It’s a cumbersome arrangement. To reload, the tank “must roll back to a safe location,” one loader explained to a Ukrainian journalist. “This takes time.” The upside is that there are fewer rounds to cook off—and kill or maim the crew—when enemy fire penetrates the turret. It’s not for no reason that the loader said he felt “great” about crewing a Leopard 1A5 despite the tank’s thin base armor.

After writing off that drone-harried Leopard 1A5—the eighth tank of that model that analysts have confirmed as destroyed—the Ukrainians still have around 90 Leopard 1A5s. Another 50 or 60 are coming soon.

Expect all the newly arriving Leopard 1A5s to get the same add-on armor that resisted eight Russian drones.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, January 24, 2025 7:04 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Between 135,000 and 200,000 Russian soldiers have died.

This number does not include soldiers who died in the units of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. According to the portal, which researched obituaries and missing persons notices, by the end of September last year, between 21,000 and 23,500 individuals from this group might have died.

Total number of deaths ranges from 159,500 to 223,500 soldiers.

https://essanews.com/russian-soldier-casualties-in-ukraine-reach-stagg
ering-toll,7117742632368257a

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, January 24, 2025 7:13 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It's 60 Bazillion!

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
. That reminds me of a joke from the GWB era.

Many nationalities were fighting in Iraq as part of the "coalition of the willing". At one point, and aide tells GWB "Sir! I've just been informed that four Brazilians died in the war!“

GWB blanches, pauses for a moment and asks quietly

“Tell me. How many is a brazillion?“




That went a different way than I thought it was going to go. Kind of reminded me of a joke I heard from around that time.


Colon Powell and GWB were in the Oval Office discussing the autrocity they were going to carry out when one of GWBs young aides who was summoned came in.

Powell wanted to run the plan by the aide, and said "Tomorrow morning we will be bombing 3 military bases, a hospital and an elementary school in Afghanistan by drone, as well as a dentist office in Columbus, Ohio.

"A dentist in Ohio? Why a dentist in Ohio?"

Powell smiles as he stands up and moves behind GWB and slaps him on the shoulder and says, "What did I tell you, George? Nobody asks any questions when we bomb Afghanis."

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Friday, January 24, 2025 8:03 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It's 60 Bazillion!

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
. That reminds me of a joke from the GWB era.

Many nationalities were fighting in Iraq as part of the "coalition of the willing". At one point, and aide tells GWB "Sir! I've just been informed that four Brazilians died in the war!“

GWB blanches, pauses for a moment and asks quietly

“Tell me. How many is a brazillion?“




That went a different way than I thought it was going to go. Kind of reminded me of a joke I heard from around that time.


Colon Powell and GWB were in the Oval Office discussing the autrocity they were going to carry out when one of GWBs young aides who was summoned came in.

Powell wanted to run the plan by the aide, and said "Tomorrow morning we will be bombing 3 military bases, a hospital and an elementary school in Afghanistan by drone, as well as a dentist office in Columbus, Ohio.

"A dentist in Ohio? Why a dentist in Ohio?"

Powell smiles as he stands up and moves behind GWB and slaps him on the shoulder and says, "What did I tell you, George? Nobody asks any questions when we bomb Afghanis."

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
OMG! I thought I heard them all!

That went so unexpectedly sideways, I had to read it to hubby!

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Saturday, January 25, 2025 5:53 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


• Russian President Vladimir Putin is once again attempting to obfuscate his unwillingness to participate in good-faith negotiations to end the war by blaming Ukraine for defending itself against Russia’s invasion and illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory.

• Zelensky signed the decree in September 2022 banning negotiations with Putin in direct response to Putin’s illegal annexation of four regions in eastern and southern Ukraine and after months of negotiations in which Russia continued to demand Ukraine's full capitulation.

• However, Zelensky has consistently signaled his willingness to negotiate with Russia and make certain compromises in pursuit of peace following the 2022 decree banning formal negotiations with Putin.

• Putin meanwhile continues to signal to both his domestic and global audiences that he is not interested in peace short of his full demands and remains committed to Ukraine’s complete capitulation.

• Putin is attempting to leverage the 2022 decree as a strawman to hide the reality of his disinterest in negotiations and to sow discord between Ukraine and its Western allies.

• Putin also attempted to position himself as Trump’s equal during his interview, reinforcing his long-held belief that Russia is the great-power heir to the Soviet Union.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-24-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, January 26, 2025 9:05 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukrainians revive strategy: Targeting Russian command hubs

By Slawek Zagórski | 11:09 AM EST, January 25, 2025

https://conflictwatcher.com/ukrainians-revive-strategy-targeting-russi
an-command-hubs,7118100733819009a

Since the beginning of the year, Ukrainians have resumed attacks on Russian command centers. . . .

Decapitating the Hydra

Three years ago, Ukrainians effectively paralyzed the command system, increasing the chaos within the opponent's army. The significant impact of eliminating senior officers for defensive warfare was evident in the Polessian sector, where Ukrainians completely dismantled the battalion tactical groups led by colonels. Their deaths caused the offensive to halt entirely. Serious problems arose after eliminating staff in the Izyum and Kherson sectors, especially during attacks on Chornobaivka.

The Kherson airport was attacked at least 18 times. This always happened when supply helicopters or command staff arrived there. In the initial stage of the war, the Russians did not learn from this. On March 18, 2022, Lt. Gen. Andrei Mordvichev, commander of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army, was injured in an attack on the airport. On March 25, Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezantsev, commander of the 49th Combined Arms Army, was killed in a rocket artillery barrage at the airport, along with two colonels.

The death of Major Gen. Vladimir Frolov, the deputy commander of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army, was a significant loss, having been eliminated by a sniper in the spring of 2022—on March 10, according to reports. Ukrainians intercepted information that the general would visit a brigade command post. A timely strike was merely a detail, finalizing the collaboration of several elements of the whole system.

However, the most severe loss was the death of Major Gen. Andrei Kolesnikov, the commander of the 29th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern Military District. According to unconfirmed reports, he was killed on March 11, a day after Frolov's death, during a strike on the command post where he was present.

All these strikes significantly impeded Russian advances on the front. Most often, troops deprived of orders from above would halt. Lower-level commanders could not demonstrate initiative and awaited directives, and when these did not appear, they preferred not to take risks.

Reapplying methods from the start of the war now could yield even better results. While the Lernaean Hydra would grow two or three equally strong heads in place of each severed one, in the case of the Russian Hydra, only one regrows, which doesn't necessarily mean it will be as competent. It is often poorer, so hunting command posts pays off greatly for Ukrainians. Moreover, they reinforce the notion that Russians cannot feel safe anywhere.

Target hunting

Electronic warfare forces inspire in locating command posts and staff. They intercept signals from Russian communications and locate their source. This is made easier by the persistent issue Russians have had for years with communications, which either function very poorly or not at all. This problem exists at every level, from individual soldier equipment to the strategic level.

It's hard to believe, but Russians often use unencrypted Chinese-made walkie-talkies, the kind you can buy in stores. Meanwhile, the Azart radios they spent $240 million on in 2012 are incompatible with market products.

The weakness of Russian electronic warfare systems is best exemplified by the death of Major Gen. Andrei Simonov, commander of the Electronic Warfare Units of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army. He was killed on April 29 or 30, 2022, near Izyum due to a rocket artillery attack on the army command post. His units were supposed to ensure the security of communication means. They did not perform well.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, January 26, 2025 9:07 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The inexperienced 159th Mechanized Brigade may not be the ex-Slovenian tanks’ last user.

By David Axe | Jan 25, 2025, 05:25pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/25/old-tanks-in-search-o
f-a-loving-home-ukraines-m-55ss-have-joined-their-fourth-unit-in-two-years/

The 159th Mechanized Brigade is one of 14 new brigades the Ukrainian ground forces stood up last year. The decision to form the new brigades and assign hundreds of precious vehicles and thousands of even more precious troops to each of the units was controversial. Analysts urged officials in Kyiv to assign any spare vehicles and troops to existing brigades, instead.

Their reasoning was clear. Many existing brigades have experienced commanders and plenty of specialist troops—drone operators, artillery gunners and engineers, among others—but are desperately short of infantry and infantry fighting vehicles. Depriving the veteran brigades of replacement troops and vehicles risked squandering their hard-won experience as they slowly disintegrated for want of reinforcement.

The tragic experience of the newly formed 155th Mechanized Brigade proved the analysts right. The poorly-led, inexperienced brigade began disintegrating before it reached the front line in the east. Hundreds of soldiers abandoned the unit; those who stuck around suffered heavy losses in their initial skirmishes with battle-hardened Russian troops.

The catastrophe led to overdue reforms. Officials in Kyiv pledged to prioritize replenishing older brigades over forming new brigades. But the policy change clearly came too late to save the under-utilized M-55S battalion from the ignominy of its fourth transfer—to a totally untested brigade.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, January 26, 2025 11:13 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Putin eyes Ukraine deal behind Zelenskyy’s back, but Trump ups the ante

January 26, 2025, 08:41 AM

https://english.nv.ua/nation/putin-seeks-ukraine-deal-bypassing-zelens
kyy-as-trump-raises-stakes-reshaping-global-politics-50484717.html

Ukraine’s fate likely hinges on Trump’s personal relationships with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. It also depends on which members of Trump’s circle can capture his attention and shape his understanding of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Trump’s plan to end Russia’s war against Ukraine

On Jan. 20, Trump said that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is “destroying Russia” by refusing to make a deal and warned that the aggressor state would face major problems if it fails to do so.

On Jan. 22, The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump tasked his special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, with ending the war within 100 days.

Read also: Putin's inner circle shrugs off Trump's threats, believing it has enough resources to fight on

On Jan. 22, Trump wrote on Truth Social that he would impose high tariffs and sanctions on Russian goods if Moscow does not stop the war.

On Jan. 23, Trump said that he will ask Saudi Arabia and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) countries to lower oil prices, claiming that this move would lead to the war’s “immediate” end.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, January 26, 2025 11:39 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
It also depends on which members of Trump’s circle can capture his attention and shape his understanding of Russia’s war against Ukraine.


We don't need any more of your "reshaping".

Fuck you. Fuck Democrats. Fuck Ukraine.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, January 26, 2025 1:42 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Trump: Zelensky Passed on Deal, 'Decided To Fight' & Is 'No Angel'


https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-attacks-zelensky-no-angel-ukrain
e-russia-war-putin-2020103

But I'm going to put my comment in the "legitimate gripes" thread bc this is now Trump's concern...

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Monday, January 27, 2025 12:39 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Russian Forces Officially Seize Last Strategic City In Southern Donbas Region

... Analysis of known Ukrainian defenses suggests that Kiev's lines are thin beyond Velyka Novosilka and that the city was the last major stronghold preventing Russian troops from surging into central Ukraine and the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast region.


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-forces-officially-seize
-last-strategic-city-southern-donbas-region

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Monday, January 27, 2025 5:29 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko won the January 26 Belarusian presidential election with a purported 87.6 percent of the vote in an election that was neither free nor fair.[76] Belarusians did not participate in widespread mass protests - a departure from the mass unrest that followed Lukashenko’s rigged electoral victory in the 2020 presidential election.[77] Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya called on Belarusians to refrain from protesting ahead of the election, citing the heightened risk of severe repercussions.[78] Lukashenko's regime has attempted to minimize the risk of wide-spread protests in recent years, including by rescheduling the presidential election from their usual timing in the summer to the winter, restricting internet access during the voting period, and introducing increasingly repressive policies to disincentivize opposition parties since 2020.[79]

The Russian government continues to erode Belarusian sovereignty by increasing its permanent military presence and deploying missile systems in Belarus. Lukashenko claimed on January 26 that Russian Oreshnik ballistic missiles would arrive in Belarus “any day now.”[80] Lukashenko claimed that Russia may deploy the Oreshniks to a Belarusian city, such as Orsha close to Smolensk City in western Russia.[81] Lukashenko asserted that Russia's deployment of Oreshnik missiles to Belarus is a direct response to US missile deployments in Europe and claimed that the Oreshnik missiles will protect Belarus.[82] Lukashenko likely hopes to assert some form of control over Russia's use of the Oreshnik missiles deployed to Belarus to buttress Belarus’ waning sovereignty, but Moscow will likely retain operational control over the missiles and their use. ISW continues to assess that the deployment of Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missiles to Belarusian territory does not fundamentally alter Russian military capabilities vis-à-vis Europe and Ukraine, as Russia has long maintained weapons systems with similar payloads and longer ranges in Kaliningrad and elsewhere in mainland Russia.[83]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-january-26-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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