REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Wednesday, November 27, 2024 17:47
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Sunday, August 20, 2023 5:35 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine Theater Hit by Missile With Deaths, Dozens of Injured Reported

The missile struck the roof of the Taras Shevchenko Chernihiv Regional Academic Music and Drama Theatre as people were on their way to church to celebrate a religious holiday.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.

https://www.newsweek.com/chernihiv-ukraine-theater-missile-strike-upda
te-1821072

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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Sunday, August 20, 2023 10:26 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


20.08.2023 00:27

Ukraine has recorded 100,666 war crimes committed by Russian invaders since the full-scale invasion began.

Yurii Bielousov, the head of the Department for Combating Crimes in Armed Conflict of the Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office, said this during a discussion entitled "Genocide as a crime. How to punish the guilty?" according to an Ukrinform correspondent.

"Our task is to record as much as possible everything that is happening in our country - every shelling attack, murder, case of deportation of our children, sex crimes, so that we do not lose evidence. To date, we have already recorded 100,666 war crimes since the full-scale invasion began," Bielousov said.

Ukrainian MP Mustafa Dzhemilev added that the current Russian policy on the occupied Crimean peninsula, like 240 years ago, is aimed at displacing the indigenous people and settling the territory with Russians.

"According to our estimates, at least one million Russian citizens were settled there," he said.

More at https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3750253-ukraine-records-over-1000
00-war-crimes-committed-by-russian-invaders.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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Sunday, August 20, 2023 10:26 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM
SECOND is an idiot. QED.

SECOND: There is the little thing the Russians have about threatening to nuke the world if Russians don't get what they want in Ukraine.
SECOND is also a liar, with no moral code.
QED.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Sunday, August 20, 2023 12:35 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM
SECOND is an idiot. QED.

SECOND: There is the little thing the Russians have about threatening to nuke the world if Russians don't get what they want in Ukraine.
SECOND is also a liar, with no moral code.
QED.
Signym, history is so boring, but even Stalin threatened to nuke the world. Never has a Russian skipped the chance to remind the world of Russian nukes. What makes the threats believable is that Russians killed 4 million Ukrainians and 64 million Russians. Russians deny anybody died. "How dare you accuse us?" is a typical Russian reply when the murder rampage is mentioned.

Medvedev says Russia could use nuclear weapon if Ukraine’s fightback succeeds in latest threat
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/31/europe/medvedev-russia-nuclear-weapons-
intl-hnk/index.html

Putin says Russia put nuclear bombs in Belarus as warning to West
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russia-positions-nucle
ar-bombs-belarus-warning-west-2023-06-16/

A top Russian security official warned Thursday about the rising threat of a nuclear war and blasted a German minister for threatening Russian President Vladimir Putin with arrest, saying that such action would amount to a declaration of war and trigger a Russian strike on Germany.
https://apnews.com/article/medvedev-nuclear-putin-arrest-warrant-germa
ny-ukraine-6dcde92e06f41a7c5cb7386f7939df33

A Kremlin insider warned Thursday that Russia could start a nuclear war if it lost its conventional war in Ukraine.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s security council and a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, made the threat in a post on the Telegram messaging app.

“The loss by a nuclear power in a conventional war can provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war,” Medvedev wrote in a post criticizing Western powers ahead of a Friday meeting in Germany to discuss further military support for Ukraine.
https://nypost.com/2023/01/19/russia-threatens-nuclear-war-if-it-loses
-in-ukraine/

Russian President Vladimir Putin warns that he won’t hesitate to use nuclear weapons to ward off Ukraine’s attempt to reclaim control of Moscow-occupied areas that the Kremlin is about to annex.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-real-are-putins-nuclear-threats
-to-ukraine

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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Sunday, August 20, 2023 1:05 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russia’s population nightmare is going to get even worse

War in Ukraine has aggravated a crisis that long predates the conflict

A DEMOGRAPHIC TRAGEDY is unfolding in Russia. Over the past three years the country has lost around 2m more people than it would ordinarily have done, as a result of war, disease and exodus. The life expectancy of Russian males aged 15 fell by almost five years, to the same level as in Haiti. The number of Russians born in April 2022 was no higher than it had been in the months of Hitler’s occupation. And because so many men of fighting age are dead or in exile, women now outnumber men by at least 10m.

War is not the sole—or even the main—cause of these troubles, but it has made them all worse. According to Western estimates, 175,000-250,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the past year (Russia’s figures are lower). Somewhere between 500,000 and 1m mostly young, educated people have evaded the meat-grinder by fleeing abroad. Even if Russia had no other demographic problems, losing so many in such a short time would be painful. As it is, the losses of war are placing more burdens on a shrinking, ailing population. Russia may be entering a doom loop of demographic decline.

The roots of Russia’s crisis go back 30 years. The country reached peak population in 1994, with 149m people. The total has since zig-zagged downwards. It was 145m in 2021 (that figure, from the UN, excludes the 2.4m people of Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014 and incorporated into its national accounts). According to UN projections, the total could be just 120m in 50 years, if current patterns persist. That would make Russia the 15th-most-populous country in the world, down from sixth in 1995. According to Alexei Raksha, an independent demographer who used to work for the state statistics service, if you look just at peacetime years, the number of births registered in April 2022 was the lowest since the 18th century. April was a particularly cruel month, but it was a revealing glimpse of a chronic problem.

Population decline is not unique to Russia: most post-communist states have seen dips, though not like this. Their declines have been slow but also manageable. Russia’s population in recent decades has seen a precipitous slump, then a partial recovery (thanks to a period of high immigration from parts of the ex-Soviet Union and more generous child allowances after 2007), followed by a renewed fall.

According to the state statistics agency, in 2020 and 2021 combined the country’s population declined by 1.3m; deaths outstripped births by 1.7m. (The UN also shows a fall, but it is shallower.) The decline was largest among ethnic Russians, whose number, the census of 2021 said, fell by 5.4m in 2010-21. Their share of the population fell from 78% to 72%. So much for Mr Putin’s boast to be expanding the Russki mir (Russian world).

All this began before the war and reflects Russia’s appalling covid pandemic. The official death toll from the disease was 388,091, which would be relatively low; but The Economist estimates total excess deaths in 2020-23 at between 1.2m and 1.6m. That would be comparable to the number in China and the United States, which have much larger populations. Russia may have had the largest covid death toll in the world after India, and the highest mortality rate of all, with 850-1,100 deaths per 100,000 people.

If you add pandemic mortality to the casualties of war and the flight from mobilisation, Russia lost between 1.9m and 2.8m people in 2020-23 on top of its normal demographic deterioration. That would be even worse than during the disastrous early 2000s, when the population was falling by roughly half a million a year.

What might that mean for Russia’s future? Demography is not always destiny; and Russia did for a while begin to reverse its decline in the mid-2010s. The impact of population change is often complex, as Russia’s military mobilisation shows. The decline in the number of ethnic Russians of call-up age (which is being raised from 18-27 to 21-30) will make it harder for the armed forces to carry out the regular spring draft, which begins in April.

Such complications notwithstanding, the overall effect of demographic decline will be to change Russia profoundly—and for the worse. Most countries which have suffered population falls have managed to avoid big social upheavals. Russia may be different. Its population is falling unusually fast and may drop to 130m by mid-century. The decline is associated with increased misery: the life expectancy at birth of Russian males plummeted from 68.8 in 2019 to 64.2 in 2021, partly because of covid, partly from alcohol-related disease. Russian men now die six years earlier than men in Bangladesh and 18 years earlier than men in Japan.

And Russia may not achieve what enables other countries to grow richer as they age: high and rising levels of education. Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographer at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, argues that the country presents a peculiar combination of third-world mortality and first-world education. It has some of the highest rates of educational attainment among over-25s in the world. But the exodus of well-educated young people is eroding this advantage. According to the communications ministry, 10% of IT workers left the country in 2022. Many were young men. Their flight is further skewing Russia’s unbalanced sex ratio, which in 2021 meant there were 121 females older than 18 for every 100 males.

The demographic doom loop has not, it appears, diminished Mr Putin’s craving for conquest. But it is rapidly making Russia a smaller, worse-educated and poorer country, from which young people flee and where men die in their 60s. The invasion has been a human catastrophe—and not only for Ukrainians.

This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline "The disappeared"

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/04/russias-population-nightma
re-is-going-to-get-even-worse

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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Sunday, August 20, 2023 1:26 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


How two new munitions could affect the war in Ukraine

GLSDB and ATACMS have long strike ranges that Ukraine badly wants

FIRST IT WAS tanks. Then it was fighter jets. Then cluster bombs. Since Russia invaded in February 2022, Ukraine has secured a range of hardware that Western allies were at first reluctant to give. Two items that remain on its wish-list are a pair of weapons for long-range precision bombing: the clunkily named GLSDB (or Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb) and ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System, pronounced “attack-ems”). America has promised to send Ukraine the GLSDB, but they have yet to arrive. Ukraine has also asked for the ATACMS, but its request has not been granted. What are these weapons capable of, and how might they affect Ukraine’s flagging counter-offensive?

Start with the GLSDB. The system consists of a rocket from which a glider bomb with pop-out wings detaches at altitude. Its 113kg fragmentation warhead can “hit within the radius of a car tyre” as far as 150km away, according to Saab, the Swedish defence contractor that, along with Boeing, an American firm, produces the munition. The GLSDB is fired from mobile launchers such as HIMARS, an American system that Ukraine received last year. The rockets Ukraine is currently firing from these launchers have a maximum range of 84km, a little over half that of the GLSDB. In addition to greater reach, the new munition has a programmable fuse with options that include aerial blast (meaning that it would detonate in the air in order, for example, to kill more infantry) and delayed detonation (which would occur, say, after penetrating a concrete structure).

GLSDBs can manoeuvre in flight, so they can hit targets in different areas without repositioning the launcher. Saab claims that the munition can knock out targets on a hillside’s “reverse slope” that cannot be struck by direct fire. The GLSDB’s GPS guidance is backed up by onboard inertial navigation, which is immune to jamming. That is important now that Russian electronic warfare is causing problems with the guidance of some Ukrainian weapons.

The ATACMS also launches from a mobile rocket launcher. It is older than the GLSDB, having been first used by America’s army in the Gulf war of 1991. Despite also using GPS and inertial navigation, the ATACMS is not quite as accurate as the GLSDB. But its 227kg fragmentation warheads are twice as heavy, meaning that they can do more damage. And it can fly 300km, double the GLSDB’s range.

Of the two, the ATACMS would probably be of more help to Ukraine, which badly needs weapons that can carry out long-range strikes. Its few crewed warplanes are vulnerable to Russia’s air defences, making deep forays highly risky. Russian forces have moved many of their ammunition dumps farther back from the front, following early losses, to render them inaccessible to many weapons. The ATACMS would allow Ukraine to hammer targets across all of the territory Russia occupies, including Crimea, the peninsula seized in 2014. It could be used to hit Russian supply lines, including the rail-and-road Kerch Bridge that links Crimea to Russia and which has been struck twice by unknown means.

Of course, even the shorter-range GLSDBs would be a welcome addition to Ukraine’s firepower. But it is not clear when its army will get them. America said in February that it would provide the munition, but on June 22nd a Pentagon official told Congress that the first delivery would not arrive before autumn. One worry is that supplies appear to be limited. America’s plans to supply GLSDBs to Ukraine will reportedly delay delivery of the weapon to Taiwan. ATACMS would be important in any war with North Korea. But even if supplies were plentiful, the White House is also concerned about escalation. Ukraine promises it would not fire American weapons into Russia. Joe Biden, America’s president, is not yet convinced. When asked on July 12th, he played down the issue: “They already have the equivalent of ATACMS now.”

https://web.archive.org/web/20230819233404/https://www.economist.com/t
he-economist-explains/2023/07/21/how-two-new-munitions-could-affect-the-war-in-ukraine

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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Sunday, August 20, 2023 2:31 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Putin’s War Is Unleashing a Crisis Back Home in Russia

Pulled out of the brutal prison system and thrown straight into frontline battles where ex-convicts are treated as little more than cannon fodder by Russian generals or Wagner commanders, huge numbers have died on the battlefield. Those who survive are horrifically traumatized.

Several of them have already been accused of gruesome crimes on their return to civilian life. Ivan Rossomakhin, 28, was reportedly accused of murder during an eight-day break back home in the Kirov region after joining the Wagner Group from prison where he had been sentenced to 14 years for murder.

Locals said he had been stumbling around the village, with a pitchfork and ax, making wild threats, “I’ll kill everyone! I’ll cut up a whole family!” No one was able to stop him before he allegedly killed a woman.

Another convicted killer who was released to go fight in Ukraine has been arrested in connection with the murder of six civilians after he served his stint in the war. Igor Sofonov, 37, was reportedly released from prison to join Storm Z, which is the defense ministry’s state-backed version of the Wagner ex-prisoner brigades.

His six alleged victims were found in two burning buildings in the village of Derevyannoye.

Much more at https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-putin-s-war-is-unleashing-a-c
risis-back-home-in-russia/ar-AA1fuYiU

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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Sunday, August 20, 2023 3:19 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


If you want to know what's happening in minute detail, updated twice a day, I once again recommend Military Summary Channel which you can find on YouTube by searching under that name.

Here is the latest update:



From what I gather from various sources, Ukraine has committed it's last reserve battalion, the 82nd, to advance in the Rabotino area. The 82nd is an elite rapid strike force, all-NATO armed and trained. Less heavy weaponry, mostly MRAPs and IFVs to close the distance to Russian defenses as fast as possible. Backed, at this point, by a couple of tank battalions. They have advanced into the northern end of Rabotino.

A sideways comment: Russia rarely acknowledges losses. They tend to provide videos of their destruction of Ukrainian weaponry. But if you find that they are actively striking areas that they had previously occupied, you can deduce that Ukraine has moved into that position. Meanwhile Russia is advancing in the north.

According to MSC, Ukraine dropped cluster munitions on Dontesk City and killed some civilians.

Also according to MSC, Russia struck a civilian building in which Russia claims a meeting/expo of drone manufacturers attended by Ukrainian and NATO officers, and many officers and tech people were killed. Ukraine claims it was just a civilian centers.

Starting Sept 1, posting videos from the frontline will be illegal in Russia. Dima:s interpretation is that it is to hide Russian prep for an offensive.


*****

So thinking ahead, "everyone" seems to think a Russian offensive is coming, the only questions are - when, where, and how big?

IMHO the offensive, assuming there is one, will be designed to collapse the Ukrainian army quickly, and force a surrender.
In order to do that, the Ukrainian army must be ground down as much as possible. This is where the General Staff has a huge advantage over us onlookers. I'll bet they have a pretty good idea of where Ukraine is going to reach a critical shortage first. Long-range missiles? Air defenses? Armored vehicles? Shells? Men? Fuel? Intel?

Not reported in Western press is that Russia has been striking all the way to Lvov, hitting NATO command centers (and commanders and advisors) and concentrations of volunteer forces. Russia has also been attriting ammo and fuel depots, western weapons, air defenses, and drone centers.

Another thing to consider is the west's delivery of NUCLEAR CAPABLE F-16s. Russians don't probably give a fig about Abrams tanks. They're likely to be much more sensitive about long range missiles and extremely sensitive about nuclear capable jets. IF the west is serious about giving Ukraine F-16 capability, they will have already realized that Ukraine will never be able to launch and fly, and the west will have to use NATO runways and NATO pilots, which would be a huge escalation.

OTOH, it's possible that the west is stalling delivery in the hopes that by then Zelenskiy will have lost the war and they won't have to make good on their promises. It's hard to know what the west will do bc every time they say they won't provide this or that weapon, that's exactly what they wind up doing.

So IMHO Russia isn't going to give the west a chance to follow thru. Advancing in the autumn mud night not be practical, but once the ground freezes over might be opportune.

So... Where? Needs more thought.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Sunday, August 20, 2023 9:21 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


BIG SERGE: Götterdämmerung in the East

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/gotterdammerung-in-the-east

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Monday, August 21, 2023 5:10 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Why Russia's War in Ukraine Could Run for Years
Story by Marcus Walker

Russia’s war on Ukraine is in danger of becoming a protracted struggle that lasts several more years. The reason isn’t just that the front-line combat is a slow-moving slog, but also that none of the main actors have political goals that are both clear and attainable.

Ukraine’s central war aim—restoring its territorial integrity—is the clearest, but appears a distant prospect given the limits of Western support. The U.S. and key European allies such as Germany want to prevent Russia from winning, but fear the costs and risks of helping Ukraine to full victory. Some Western officials are sketching out grand bargains to end the war, but they fit neither Kyiv’s nor Moscow’s goals.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declared aims are the most elastic, ranging from ambitious imperial schemes to more limited land grabs, and shifting with Russia’s military fortunes. His long-term objective of bringing Ukraine back under Moscow’s sway looks unrealistic now, but Ukrainians believe he would treat smaller gains as mere steppingstones, rendering treacherous any peace based on concessions.

President Biden has said the goal of U.S. aid is to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position for eventual peace negotiations, without saying under what conditions it should negotiate. Earlier this year, Washington, Berlin and others hoped a chance for talks would open up this fall, if Kyiv’s counteroffensive made significant progress against Russian occupation forces in Ukraine’s south and east.

But throughout the war, strengthening Ukraine with decisive firepower has clashed with another, overriding Western priority: to avoid uncontrolled escalation that leads to a direct war with Russia or to Putin using nuclear weapons.

The speed limit on aid for Ukraine has been evident in the West’s months-long debates over whether to supply tanks, planes and long-range missiles. Ukrainian troops’ limited weaponry, including air power and air defenses, has contributed to their heavy losses throughout the war, and to their painfully slow progress this summer against Russia’s fortified lines in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions. U.S. intelligence assessments are now pessimistic about whether Ukrainian forces can break through Russian defenses and reach the coast, a key strategic aim for Kyiv.

A drawback of the U.S.’s incremental approach to military aid: Without a battlefield breakthrough, Kyiv doesn’t want to negotiate peace—and Moscow doesn’t have to.

“By structuring our approach around the goal of no escalation, around what we don’t want to happen, the U.S. has set itself up for a drawn-out conflict,” said Alina Polyakova, president of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington. “You end up in a strange middle ground where you’re not necessarily able to accomplish that second goal of putting Ukraine in a position of strength that makes negotiations possible.”

The muddle over Western aims was illustrated this past week when a senior official of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization spoke publicly about an idea that European diplomats have been debating: that Ukraine give up Russian-occupied territory in return for joining NATO to protect what’s left. The suggestion drew an angry dismissal from Ukraine, which says its borders aren’t for bartering. The NATO official apologized, reverting to the West’s public line that only Ukraine can define acceptable peace terms.

In private, many Western officials don’t think the U.S. and its allies can leave it to Kyiv alone to define the goal. Ukraine’s maximalist aims, they fear, guarantee an endless war. They would like to offer Ukraine carrots to accept the de facto loss of some territory, such as NATO or European Union membership or promises of long-term military and economic aid.

The thinking stems from an eagerness to contain a conflict whose shock waves have been felt across the global economy, uncertainty about how long Western voters will support the current levels of aid for Kyiv and disbelief that Ukraine can fully expel Russian forces.

The Prussian military thinker Carl von Clausewitz famously wrote that “war is a mere continuation of policy by other means,” stressing that military force is an instrument for attaining a political goal. Some unsuccessful wars have resulted less from lost battles than from the lack of an achievable political aim, so that campaigns came to be seen as draining and fruitless. Modern examples arguably include the Soviet and U.S. failures in Afghanistan and America’s defeat in Vietnam.

Now, Russia is finding itself in a costly quagmire whose point is unclear. Turning Clausewitz’s idea on its head, Putin’s policy has depended on where his soldiers were. The full-scale invasion launched in early 2022 aimed to install a pro-Moscow regime in Ukraine, buttressed by an ideology that said Russians and Ukrainians were one people. When fierce resistance forced Russia to retreat from Kyiv, the Kremlin shrank the objective to conquering all of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas area. After further military setbacks, Russia declared the annexation of four regions in Ukraine’s east and south, none of which it fully controls.

But Russia is also trying to advance in the Kharkiv region in the northeast, going beyond its territorial claims. Senior Kremlin officials continue to say they want to dismantle the Ukrainian state.

Putin sometimes speaks as if the war has largely fulfilled its aim. “The primordial Russian lands of Donbas and Novorossiya have returned home where they belong,” Putin said with satisfaction in early August, using a tsarist-era term for southern Ukraine. Only in June, however, he mused about maybe raising more troops for another march on Kyiv. “Only I can answer that,” he said. “Depending on our goals, we must decide on mobilization,” he told Russian military correspondents, suggesting his goals remain fluid.

Russia had a plan A for a quick conquest of Ukraine but no plan B, said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. “Now, declaring goals could be politically costly for Putin. Having unclear metrics allows you to say you’re working towards them,” Gabuev said.

The Kremlin’s view of the timeline is clearer than the aims, Gabuev said: “They believe the cost of the war is manageable and the endurance of the Russian political system, people and economy can outlast the West.”

Recent events, from the revolt of the Wagner paramilitary group to the ruble’s sinking value, show how the war is straining Russia’s economy and military, but not yet to a breaking point. Some observers believe the state of war against Ukraine and its Western backers is becoming an end in itself, the raison d’être of a regime that can no longer offer economic growth and stability.

Russia hasn’t given up its maximal goal, pursued in many neighboring countries for years, Polyakova said: to reassert its old sphere of influence and stop countries such as Ukraine from moving further West—whether that means domination or turning them into failed states. The Kremlin’s lesser declared aims are tactical maneuvering, she said.

“Russia still has this big imperial vision that Putin has grown to believe in over his tenure,” she said. “Ukraine’s goals have not changed. The question is: What’s the Western strategic vision?”

Write to Marcus Walker at Marcus.Walker@wsj.com

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-russia-s-war-in-ukraine-could
-run-for-years/ar-AA1fvguD

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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Monday, August 21, 2023 5:35 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
BIG SERGE: Götterdämmerung in the East

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/gotterdammerung-in-the-east
Big Serge overlooked the biggest part of the story:

The Soviet people were under attack from two directions: the Nazi military machine and the Soviet Communist Party. The imprisonment and killing of enemies of the people by the party not only continued during the war, but was intensified. A large number of the Soviet World War II dead were killed by Stalin, not Hitler — probably 10,000,000 more. Had Ripley written a “Believe It or Not” of incredible tales of murder and death, the two-front war suffered by Soviet citizens and foreigners subject to Soviet occupation surely would provide prominent entries.

As the Red Army retreated before Nazi invasion forces, the NKVD often tried to deport prisoners east before the Nazis arrived. In some cases prisoners were beaten and shot in death marches along the roads or, if evacuation were impossible or too difficult, prisoners were shot en masse in the prisons,15 whether pickpockets, crooks, black marketeers, or political prisoners. For example, they were shot as prisons were evacuated in Tallin, Smolensk, Kiev, Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, and Orel; in Tartu at least 192 prisoners were killed.16 Upon the approach of German forces, all in Minsk’s prison were killed. It held about 10,000 inmates, although constructed for 1,000.17 All prisoners doing forced labor at a mining complex near Nalchik were machine gunned to death. At the Olginskaya camp, more than 2,000 of those sentenced for over four years were shot.18 And in the Ukraine:

In the majority of prisons NKVD troops shot all inmates who had been sentenced to more than three years. In some towns the NKVD burned prisons with all their inmates. According to Ukrainian sources, 10,000 prisoners were shot in Lvov, Zolochevo, Rovno, Dubno, Lutsk, and other cities.19
In all, perhaps 80,000 Ukrainians were massacred during the Red Army retreat.20

Now, one’s mind can soon become dulled by all the figures being given here; one can read about 80,000 Ukrainians murdered but not absorb this magnitude. But consider: more Ukrainians were apparently murdered in this retreat than all the Englishmen killed (70,000) by all the Nazi bombs dropped on England during the war;21 it is more than all the American Marine and Navy battle-dead in all theaters of action in World War II (56,683);22 it is virtually equal to all the American battle dead in the Korean and Vietnam wars together (80,950).23

From the book Lethal Politics: Soviet Genocide and Mass Murder since 1917 by R. J. Rummel
Download the free book from https://libgen.unblockit.vegas/search.php?req=R.+J.+Rummel

https://libgen.is/search.php?req=R.+J.+Rummel

https://www.amazon.com/Lethal-Politics-Soviet-Genocide-Murder-ebook/dp
/B073RQ94KF/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, August 21, 2023 12:56 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


You keep quoting the same guy over and over, and I keep telling you his estimates are suspect and disputed by historians.


Quote:
Among them, Soviet specialists Michael Ellman and J. Arch Getty have criticized the estimates for relying on émigré sources, hearsay, and rumor as evidence,[56] and cautioned that historians should instead utilize archive material.[57] Such scholars distinguish between historians who base their research on archive materials, and those whose estimates are based on witnesses evidence and other data that is unreliable.[58] Soviet specialist Stephen G. Wheatcroft says that historians relied on Solzhenitsyn to support their higher estimates but research in the state archives vindicated the lower estimates, and that the popular press has continued to include serious errors that should not be cited, or relied on, in academia.[59] Rummel was also another widely used and cited source[60] but not reliable about estimates.[54]

https://archive.org/details/rummel-r.-j.-death-by-government-1994


Rummel had a point to make and bone to pick. He was attempting to prove that "democracies" [not sure how he defines that] kill fewer people than communist nations [again, not sure how he defines THAT. "communism" per se has never existed and still doesn't exist.]

He wasn't a careful historian, but was interested in "psycho-social" aspects of society, so rather than pick thru dry dusty papers and numbers, or visitng sites and exhuming skeletons (or using the data that someone else developed) he used stories that people told.
Well, YOU tell a lot of stories, most of them false. Stories are just stories unless backed by evidence.

*****

But why do you keep dragging the thread off-topic? I mean, we've read about Big Bad Russia from Time Immemorial a couple hundred times by now, and when you're not blathering about that you're blathering about TRUMP! and TRUMPTARDS!
Reality a bit too much for you?

Military Summary Channel (pro-Ukrainian military blogger)



The Duran (Greek/British and Cypriot/American analysis)



Simplicious the Thinker
https://simplicius76.substack.com/

The New Atlas (American ex-Marine tech spec living in Thailand)



Also Scott Ritter (Marine and USA/UN weapons inspector)
Larry Johnson (ex CIA, and security analyst)
and others


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Monday, August 21, 2023 9:00 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Well, now I think I've heard it all.

Western politicians are casting about for a way to scrape that tar-baby off. I think they truly ...TRULY... believed that Russia would collapse and regime change would fall into their laps!

Escalation... well, the west is running out, or has run out, of weapons it can conveniently give Russia, and further military escalation risks WWIII. Some neocons are on-board with that!

And apparently (some) western ex-diplomats (CFR members) have been trying to interest Russia in a "territory for NATO membership", whereby Russia get to keep what it has and rump Ukraine gets to be in NATO. Two problem with that: Zelenskiy won't agree and Russua- having been burned on Nordstream, the Minsk deals, and the negotiations on Turkey that BoJo torpedoed, won't have any part of it.

So here comes the incredible part: How about Kiev declaring a unilateral cease fire and then quickly becoming part of NATO? It seems like a bluff to me, but I imagine Russia's response could be to simply roll into Kiev, Odessa and so forth unopposed, and take over without firing another shot.

The finger pointing and blame-shifting is amusing.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Tuesday, August 22, 2023 8:29 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

But why do you keep dragging the thread off-topic? I mean, we've read about Big Bad Russia from Time Immemorial a couple hundred times by now, and when you're not blathering about that you're blathering about TRUMP! and TRUMPTARDS!
Reality a bit too much for you?
Between Trump and Putin, the topic is the same: the inability of most Trumptards and Russians to think their way out of a problem. As if living inside a novel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_and_Punishment , Russians handled their problems by murdering tens of millions. Signym handles that by accusing Rummel of inflating the numbers of dead Russians. None of the numbers are Rummel's estimates of dead Russians. These numbers are Russians' estimates, all gathered into one place. But you just waive it away as nothing when these murder sprees by Russians are the most important characteristic of the entire nation. That, plus the constant and unending threats to nuke the world.

Back in the USA, the Trumptards handle their problems no better than the Russians handle theirs, but without murder sprees. The Trumptards blame all their problems on Democrats. Trumptards should blame themselves, but they won't because they refuse basic facts (much like Signym won't accept the basic fact of Russia's 64 million murders and counting):

Why Do Republicans Get Offended When Told Basic Facts?

• Over the last fifty years, every Republican President has seen a recession, while we have had only one recession begin under a Democrat, a short six month recession under Carter.

• Over the last forty years every Republican President has created a deficit at least double the previous record. Over that same time, every Democratic President (including already Biden) has cut the deficit by half or more.

• The last three Democratic Presidents (including Biden) have all seen unemployment effectively cut in half. The last two Republicans both saw it effectively double.

• Over the last fifty years, despite holding the Presidency for only 22 years compared to Republicans holding it 28, stock market return has been just over 100% under Republicans and just shy of 1,000% under Democrats. Over 42 million jobs have been created under Democrats compared to only 24 million under Republicans. Income growth averaged 2.2% under Democrats compared to 0.6% under Republicans. GDP growth averaged 4.1% under Democrats compared to 2.7% under Republicans.

• Going back to Truman, four of the five Presidents who have seen the largest increase in domestic oil production were Democrats (with Trump scoring the number five spot and Obama placing first). Only six Presidents over that time have seen domestic oil production fall, and five of them were Republicans.

• Since 1980, The abortion rate held steady under Reagan, Bush 41 and Bush 43. It fell under both Clinton and Obama, and under Trump rose for the first time since the 1970’s.

• Since the Nixon Administration, 338 members of Presidential administrations have been indicted on criminal charges. Three of these were in Democratic administrations, 335 were in Republican administrations.

• In the last century, only two Presidents have lost jobs during their administrations, both Republicans (Hoover and Trump)

• Over the last 80 years, five of the six Presidents with the highest job creation were Democrats, with only Reagan making the list. (Current rankings are Clinton, Reagan, Biden, Obama, Johnson, and Carter, with Biden likely to move into second place before the end of his first term.)

• Ten of the eleven safest states in the Union are blue or lean blue with Utah the only red state. Fifteen of the sixteen least safe states are red, with Georgia being the only non-red state in that mix (and until recently we would have considered Georgia a red state). (Scores based on a combination of personal safety, road safety, financial safety, and emergency preparedness.)

• Four of the five states with the highest poverty rate are deep red (New Mexico being the only blue state). Four of the five states with the lowest poverty rates are-blue or lean blue, with Utah the only red state.

• The five states with the best education are all blue. Four of the five states with the worst education are deep red, with New Mexico the only blue state.

• Four of the five states with the highest incarceration rates are deep red, with Delaware the only blue state. Four of the five with the lowest incarceration rates are blue or lean blue with North Dakota the only red state.

• The ten states with a the best healthcare are all blue. The five states with the worst healthcare are all red. In fact ten of the bottom eleven are all red with Georgia being the only exception.

• Eight of the ten states that pay the highest Federal income tax per capita are blue. (That’s per capita, so population isn’t a factor.) Eight of the ten states who rely most on Federal funding are red.

• The five states with the highest covid death rates were all red. Three of the five with the lowest death rates are blue with Alaska and Utah the only exceptions.

https://andrewtobias.com/why-do-democrats-get-offended-when-told-basic
-facts/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, August 22, 2023 8:40 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russia's Desperate Mine Defenses May Backfire

Speaking with Newsweek from Kyiv, Kramer concurred that Russia's mine-laying approach in the south appears to have prioritized volume.

"Their minelaying is extremely haphazard, and it could cause problems for them," he said. "The problem with all these minefields is that the Russians don't do mine maps. In the West, in the U.S., whenever we lay out a minefield there has to be an extensive map that's given to everybody, especially friendly forces.

"You always have lanes in there so you can get through them, so friendlies can get through," Kramer said. But on the Russian side, "there's no mine-mapping whatsoever."

Kramer recalled images sent back from the front by Ukrainian troops he had been working with.

"They showed me several pictures of a wooded area, I would say a 10-meter [107-foot] square area," he said. "There must have been 10 or 15 anti-personnel mines just thrown on the ground, all over the place, right next to each other. They put them in trees too, they'll hide some so you get complacent, and you expect you've seen all the mines, and then there's some hidden. They're just going crazy with the mines."

Russian mine-laying, Kramer said, chimes with the broader low-tech, casualty-intensive military approach in Ukraine to date.

"They do the same thing with indirect fire," he said. "They fire on their own people if there's an attack on them by the Ukrainians. They don't care. The way they approach human life, they just don't care compared the Ukrainians. It could cause them some problems down the road, but I really don't think they care."

More at https://www.newsweek.com/russia-mine-defenses-could-backfire-south-ukr
aine-1821294

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, August 22, 2023 11:39 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


*YAWN!*

Ukraine will prove to you how 'smart' Biden* is.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Tuesday, August 22, 2023 12:06 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
*YAWN!*

Ukraine will prove to you how 'smart' Biden* is.
This is what fools say when they have no real purpose or direction for their life: "We must keep doing what we have always done." And here is Russia showing it has no real purpose or direction other than to continue as it always has: War in Ukraine could last ‘decades,’ ex-Russian leader says. No end in sight, Dmitry Medvedev reckons. “As long as there is such power [in Kyiv], there will be, say, three years of cease-fire, two years of conflict, and then everything will happen again,” he added.
https://www.politico.eu/article/war-ukraine-could-last-decades-russia-
dmitry-medvedev/

Despite what you say, Signym, America is doing excellent, but the most worthless people, the Trumptards in America and the Russians who haven't left Russia for better lives aren't doing well. And Biden doesn't care how the idiotic Trumptards ruin themselves because they never learn and have proved they can't. Biden does not care that the Russians left behind in Russia aren't doing well compared to the ones that leave. If the stay-behind Russians want to fight on forever rather than get real goals and purposes in life, go right ahead and ruin yourselves.


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, August 22, 2023 12:27 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
*YAWN!*

Ukraine will prove to you how 'smart' Biden* is.


SECOND: This is what fools say when they have no real purpose or direction for their life: "We must keep doing what we have always done."
And that is exactly what Biden* is doing. And what YOU are doing!

Russia has changed.
Biden*, and YOU.... have not.
Reality really is too much for you!


PS: Ukraine will prove how 'smart' you are.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Tuesday, August 22, 2023 4:03 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
*YAWN!*

Ukraine will prove to you how 'smart' Biden* is.


SECOND: This is what fools say when they have no real purpose or direction for their life: "We must keep doing what we have always done."
And that is exactly what Biden* is doing. And what YOU are doing!

Russia has changed.
Biden*, and YOU.... have not.
Reality really is too much for you!


PS: Ukraine will prove how 'smart' you are.
I'm not misinterpreting that you think Russia is living another thrilling chapter in its colorful history . . . by murdering Ukrainians and stealing their land. That leaves Biden as pure evil. He shall be vanquished at the polls in 2024 for providing ammo to Ukrainians and for signing the Inflation Reduction Act. The heroic Russians that die because Biden gave Ukrainians weapons made in America will always be remembered as martyrs. Long live the Reign of Putin, the destroyer of Ukraine! Long live Trump who will save America's soul from demonic Biden, the attempted destroyer of fossil fuel!

In case you are unfamiliar with Evil Biden's Inflation Reduction Act
https://www.whitehouse.gov/cleanenergy/inflation-reduction-act-guidebo
ok/

On August 16, 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law, marking the most significant action Congress has taken on clean energy and climate change in the nation’s history. With the stroke of his pen, the President redefined American leadership in confronting the existential threat of the climate crisis and set forth a new era of American innovation and ingenuity to lower consumer costs and drive the global clean energy economy forward.

Clean Energy
Investing in America – CleanEnergy.gov
Clean Energy Updates
Inflation Reduction Act Guidebook
Clean Energy Tax Provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act
EV Acceleration Challenge
Funding for Tribes in the Inflation Reduction Act
Open Funding Opportunities
Direct Pay

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, August 22, 2023 8:33 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russia Will Win By Nuking . . . Russia!

Putin's Cheerleaders Argue Over Nuclear Strikes on Ukraine

By Isabel Van Brugen on 8/22/23 AT 7:53 AM EDT

In a heated argument on state TV, Kremlin propagandists clashed over the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons in President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine.

During a broadcast on TV channel Russia-1, Vladimir Solovyov, one of the best-known figures in Kremlin-backed media, suggested Moscow use nuclear weapons, prompting Andrey Sidorov, a professor at Moscow State University to question the capability of the Russian army.

An excerpt of the discussion was posted on Monday by the Daily Beast's Julia Davis, who wrote on X, formerly Twitter: "Meanwhile in Russia: propagandist Vladimir Solovyov erupted in his typical nuclear tirade, but was stunned and mentally glitched when his guest asked an unexpectedly honest question: 'Is our Army unable to win with conventional weapons?'"

The use of nuclear weapons has been discussed frequently throughout the war in Ukraine. The Russian president himself said in a televised address to the nation in September 2022 that he would be prepared to use such weapons to defend Russian territory.

"Why are we still dancing around? I think we should strike. As soon as they officially deliver [F-16s], we conduct a strike with tactical nuclear weapons," suggested Solovyov. "They're convinced we won't do it. This is why it should be done."

Sidorov, deputy dean of world politics at Moscow State University, quickly disagreed, saying that he views nuclear weapons positively "as long as they aren't used."

"Then what are they for? Keep them at home? Use them to make sauerkraut?" Solovyov hit back, to which Sidorov said "yes."

The professor questioned Solovyov's logic, pushing the Kremlin line that parts of Ukraine belong to Russia. In 2014, Russia illegally annexed the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea. Putin also claimed to have annexed four Ukrainian regions in the fall of 2022—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Russia is not fully in control of any of them and foreign governments, including the United States, said the move was illegitimate.

"The first question is, where to use [a nuclear weapon] in Ukraine? If these are Western Russian lands, would we be striking our own? Ruining our own territories?" said Sidorov.

Solovyov responded by calling the professor "a pacifist in disguise."

"For God's sake, this is our territory!" Sidorov said, and asked whether Russia is capable of victory on the battlefield using normal weapons.

"When we discuss using nuclear weapons, I start to question: is our army unable to win using conventional weapons? It can only do it with nuclear weapons?" the professor said.

Solovyov appeared stunned at Sidorov's remarks.

"Hold on, hold on, hold on a minute!" he said, clutching his head and closing his eyes.

Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry via email for comment.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-state-tv-host-russia-ukraine-nuclear-we
apons-1821567

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, August 22, 2023 8:59 PM

THG


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
*YAWN!*

Ukraine will prove to you how 'smart' Biden* is.


SECOND: This is what fools say when they have no real purpose or direction for their life: "We must keep doing what we have always done."
And that is exactly what Biden* is doing. And what YOU are doing!

Russia has changed.
Biden*, and YOU.... have not.
Reality really is too much for you!


PS: Ukraine will prove how 'smart' you are.




Ukraine blows up five jets ‘deep within Russian territory’

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-blows-up-five-jets-deep-w
ithin-russian-territory/ar-AA1fD9CF?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ef7eb2a1f5c44471807d0be87346b166&ei=20


T

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Wednesday, August 23, 2023 1:45 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


If it's not on military summary channel I don't believe it. And even then, given their pro-Ukrainian bias (and their willingness to report unverfied Ukrainian successes) not even necessarily then either.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Wednesday, August 23, 2023 8:44 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
If it's not on military summary channel I don't believe it.
You will like this news. The Ukrainians don't know any better than the Russians about successful military strategies:

Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say

Eric Schmitt, Julian E. Barnes, Helene Cooper, Thomas Gibbons-Neff

American strategists say Ukraine’s troops are too spread out and need to concentrate along the counteroffensive’s main front in the south.

Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive is struggling to break through entrenched Russian defenses in large part because it has too many troops, including some of its best combat units, in the wrong places, American and other Western officials say.

The main goal of the counteroffensive is to cut off Russian supply lines in southern Ukraine by severing the so-called land bridge between Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula. But instead of focusing on that, Ukrainian commanders have divided troops and firepower roughly equally between the east and the south, the U.S. officials said.

As a result, more Ukrainian forces are near Bakhmut and other cities in the east than are near Melitopol and Berdiansk in the south, both far more strategically significant fronts, officials say.

American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol, Kyiv’s top priority, and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process.

Only with a change of tactics and a dramatic move can the tempo of the counteroffensive change, said one U.S. official, who like the other half a dozen Western officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Another U.S. official said the Ukrainians were too spread out and needed to consolidate their combat power in one place.

Nearly three months into the counteroffensive, the Ukrainians may be taking the advice to heart, especially as casualties continue to mount and Russia still holds an edge in troops and equipment.

In a video teleconference on Aug. 10, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; his British counterpart, Adm. Sir Tony Radakin; and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, urged Ukraine’s most senior military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, to focus on one main front. And, according to two officials briefed on the call, General Zaluzhnyi agreed.

Admiral Radakin’s role has been especially important and not widely appreciated until now, the officials said. General Milley speaks to General Zaluzhnyi every week or so about strategy and Ukrainian military needs. But the Biden administration has prohibited senior U.S. officers from visiting Ukraine for security reasons and to avoid increasing tensions with Moscow. Britain, however, has imposed no such constraints, and Admiral Radakin, a polished officer who served three tours in Iraq, has developed close ties with his Ukrainian counterpart during multiple trips to the country.

American officials say there are indications that Ukraine has started to shift some of its more seasoned combat forces from the east to the south. But even the most experienced units have been reconstituted a number of times after taking heavy casualties. These units rely on a shrinking cadre of senior commanders. Some platoons are mostly staffed by soldiers who have been wounded and returned to fight.

Ukraine has penetrated at least one layer of Russian defenses in the south in recent days and is increasing the pressure, U.S. and Ukrainian officials said. It is close to taking control of Robotyne, a village in the south that is near the next line of Russian defenses. Taking the village, American officials said, would be a good sign.

A spokesman for the Ukrainian military did not respond to text messages or phone calls on Tuesday.

But some analysts say the progress may be too little too late. The fighting is taking place on mostly flat, unforgiving terrain, which favors the defenders. The Russians are battling from concealed positions that Ukrainian soldiers often see only when they are feet away. Hours after Ukrainians clear a field of mines, the Russians sometimes fire another rocket that disperses more of them at the same location.

Under American war doctrine, there is always a main effort to ensure that maximum resources go to a single front, even if supporting forces are fighting in other areas to hedge against failure or spread-out enemy defenses.

But Ukraine and Russia fight under old Soviet Communist doctrine, which seeks to minimize rivalries among factions of the army by providing equal amounts of manpower and equipment across commands. Both armies have failed to prioritize their most important objectives, officials say.

Ukraine’s continued focus on Bakhmut, the scene of one of the bloodiest battles of the war, has perplexed U.S. intelligence and military officials. Ukraine has invested huge amounts of resources in defending the surrounding Donbas region, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, does not want to appear as though he is giving up on trying to retake lost territory. But U.S. officials say politics must, at least temporarily, take a back seat to sound military strategy.

American strategists say that keeping a small force near the destroyed city is justified to pin down Russian troops and prevent them from using it as a base for attack. But Ukraine has enough troops there to try to retake the area, a move that U.S. officials say would lead to large numbers of losses for little strategic gain.

American officials have told Ukrainian leaders that they can secure the land around Bakhmut with far fewer troops and should reallocate forces to targets in the south.

Ukrainian leaders have defended their strategy and distribution of forces, saying they are fighting effectively in both the east and the south. The large number of troops is necessary to pressure Bakhmut and to defend against concerted Russian attacks in the country’s northeast, they say. Ukrainian commanders are competing for resources and have their own ideas of where they can succeed.

American officials’ criticisms of Ukraine’s counteroffensive are often cast through the lens of a generation of military officers who have never experienced a war of this scale and intensity.

Moreover, American war doctrine has never been tested in an environment like Ukraine’s, where Russian electronic warfare jams communications and GPS, and neither military has been able to achieve air superiority.

American officials said Ukraine has another month to six weeks before rainy conditions force a pause in the counteroffensive. Already in August, Ukraine has postponed at least one offensive drive because of rain.

“Terrain conditions are always fundamental drivers” of military operations, General Milley said in an interview with reporters on Sunday. “Fall and spring are not optimal for combined arms operations.”

Wet weather will not stop the fighting, but if Ukraine breaks through Russian lines in the coming weeks, the mud could make it more difficult to capitalize on that success and quickly seize a wide swath of territory, officials said.

More important than the weather, some analysts say, is that Ukraine’s main assault forces may run out of steam by mid- to late September. About a month ago, Ukraine rotated in a second wave of troops to replace an initial force that failed to break through Russian defenses.

Ukraine also shifted its battlefield tactics then, returning to its old ways of wearing down Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles instead of plunging into minefields under fire. In recent days, Ukraine has started tapping into its last strategic reserves — air mobile brigades intended to exploit any breakthrough. While fighting could continue for months, U.S. and other Western officials say Ukraine’s counteroffensive would not have enough decisive firepower to reclaim much of the 20 percent of the country that Russia occupies.

U.S. officials say they do not believe the counteroffensive is doomed to failure but acknowledge that the Ukrainians have not had the success that they or their allies hoped for when the push began.

“We do not assess that the conflict is a stalemate,” Jake Sullivan, the White House’s national security adviser, said on Tuesday. “We continue to support Ukraine in its effort to take territory as part of this counteroffensive, and we are seeing it continue to take territory on a methodical systematic basis.”

While a smaller, dug-in Russian force has performed better in the south than American officials and analysts anticipated, the Kremlin still has systemic problems. Russian troops suffer from poor supply lines, low morale and bad logistics, a senior U.S. military official said.

But Russia is keeping with its traditional way of fighting land wars in Europe: performing poorly in the opening months or years before adapting and persevering as the fighting drags on.

By contrast, Ukrainian troops, in launching the counteroffensive, have the steeper hill to climb, the official said. It took them more than two months — rather than the week or so that officials initially thought — to get through the initial Russian defenses.

Several U.S. officials said they expect Ukraine to make it about halfway to the Sea of Azov by winter, when cold weather may dictate another pause in the fighting. The senior U.S. official said that would be a “partial success.” Some analysts say the counteroffensive will fall short of even that more limited goal.

Even if the counteroffensive fails to reach the coast, officials and analysts say if it can make it far enough to put the coastal road within range of Ukrainian artillery and other strikes, it could cause even more problems for Russian forces in the south who depend on that route for supplies.

Speaking to reporters on a flight to Rome on Sunday, General Milley said the past two months of the counteroffensive have been “long, bloody and slow.”

“It’s taken longer than Ukraine had planned,” he said. “But they are making limited progress.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensiv
e-russia-war.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, August 23, 2023 12:44 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


SECOND: I don't even need to read your articles. Just by tracking headlines I can tell you that

The "counteroffensive" isn't meeting America's objectives (regime change in Russia, Crimea)
The "counteroffensive" isn't meeting Kiev's objective (Donbas)
The Biden* administration hasn't figured out a way to win, negotiate, or call a ceasefire by summer 2024
The CIA is saying "we told you so"
Milley is saying "I told you so" (which he did, but he has also said that victory is possible)
This is the Biden* administration throwing Zelenskiy under the bus
And Zelenskiy throwing Zaluzhny and possibly Reznikov under the bus

The only thing left to figure out is "What will Russia do?" bc Russia is controlling the war. Unless the neocons, in their desperation (and there are still crazies in State Dept and WH) resort to nukes or open NATO involvement, in which case all hell breaks loose.

*****

OK, scanning into your article a bit: I'm puzzled by the neocons' projected timing. They seem to think that Ukraine will advance thru the mud of the fall rainy season, and psuse for the winter, when the ground is frozen and trundling heavy weapons around is possible? And they also seem to think that RUSSIA will pause for the winter, and give Ukraine a chance to re-arm?

Isn't this bass-akwards from what we've been told before? That the spring thaw and autumn rains make moving across the landscape impossible? That the best time for an offensive is in the summer or early fall, when the trees are in full leaf and the ground is relatively dry, and the second-best time for an offensive is the winter, when the ground is frozen?


This whole concept of a winter "pause" ... isn't that just wishful thinking on the neocons' part? Bc I can't imagine why Russia would need to pause, altho I can see that Ukraine might run out of ... everything ... by then.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Wednesday, August 23, 2023 1:37 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


OK, a point-by-point rebuttal
Quote:
You will like this news. The Ukrainians don't know any better than the Russians about successful military strategies:

Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say

Eric Schmitt, Julian E. Barnes, Helene Cooper, Thomas Gibbons-Neff

American strategists say Ukraine’s troops are too spread out and need to concentrate along the counteroffensive’s main front in the south.
Bc America's objective has been, and always will be, Crimea and control of the Black Sea. Nevermind what Ukrainians want. Since we're supplying the weapons and money they need to fight for OUR objectives.

Quote:
Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive is struggling to break through entrenched Russian defenses in large part because it has too many troops, including some of its best combat units, in the wrong places, American and other Western officials say.

The NATO's main goal of the counteroffensive is to cut off Russian supply lines in southern Ukraine by severing the so-called land bridge between Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula. But instead of focusing on that, Ukrainian commanders have divided troops and firepower roughly equally between the east and the south, the U.S. officials said.

As a result, more Ukrainian forces are near Bakhmut and other cities in the east than are near Melitopol and Berdiansk in the south, both far more strategically significant fronts, officials say.
True. About half of Ukraine's army is still near Bakhmut.

Quote:
American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol, Kyiv’s NATO's top priority, and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process.

Only with a change of tactics and a dramatic move can the tempo of the counteroffensive change, said one U.S. official, who like the other half a dozen Western officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Another U.S. official said the Ukrainians were too spread out and needed to consolidate their combat power in one place.
Er... there must be an optimum concentration of forces in there somewhere. Because TOO concentrated ... as in the mad "combined arms" rush in early June... only paints a big giant bulls-eye on your forces. But too scattered, and you don't have enough firepower to count. I see Ukraine see-sawing between the supposed "combined arms offensive" American model that led to mass killing and destruction of weapons, and "penny packet" attacks that don't go anywhere. Between might and speed (82nd brigade).

But, yanno, it's quite possible that there is NO successful configuration on Ukraine's part. If you're outranged and outgunned in every dimension, it doesn't matter HOW you arrange your forces.

Quote:
Nearly three months into the counteroffensive, the Ukrainians may be taking the advice to heart, especially as casualties continue to mount and Russia still holds an edge in troops and equipment.
Unless .... and even if ... neocons resort to nuke, chemical warfare, biowarfare, or anything beyond conventional warfare, I suspect Russia will ALWAYS hold an edge in troops and equipment.

BTW, SECOND - if Russia had planned all along to nuke everything, do you think they would have equipped themselves so diligently to fight a conventional war?

Quote:
In a video teleconference on Aug. 10, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; his British counterpart, Adm. Sir Tony Radakin; and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, urged Ukraine’s most senior military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, to focus on one main front. And, according to two officials briefed on the call, General Zaluzhnyi agreed.

Admiral Radakin’s role has been especially important and not widely appreciated until now, the officials said. General Milley speaks to General Zaluzhnyi every week or so about strategy and Ukrainian military needs. But the Biden administration has prohibited senior U.S. officers from visiting Ukraine for security reasons and to avoid increasing tensions with Moscow. Britain, however, has imposed no such constraints, and Admiral Radakin, a polished officer who served three tours in Iraq, has developed close ties with his Ukrainian counterpart during multiple trips to the country.
I've known all along that Ukraine is just a meat puppet for NATO

Quote:
American officials say there are indications that Ukraine has started to shift some of its more seasoned combat forces from the east to the south. But even the most experienced units have been reconstituted a number of times after taking heavy casualties. These units rely on a shrinking cadre of senior commanders. Some platoons are mostly staffed by soldiers who have been wounded and returned to fight.

Ukraine has penetrated at least one layer of Russian defenses in the south in recent days
Not true. They are still fighting in what is called "the crumple zone" or "gray area". They haven't even reached the first "Surovikin line".

Quote:
and is increasing the pressure, U.S. and Ukrainian officials said. It is close to taking control of Robotyne, a village in the south that is near the next line of Russian defenses. Taking the village, American officials said, would be a good sign.
But still in the crumple zone.

Quote:
A spokesman for the Ukrainian military did not respond to text messages or phone calls on Tuesday.

But some analysts say the progress may be too little too late. The fighting is taking place on mostly flat, unforgiving terrain, which favors the defenders. The Russians are battling from concealed positions that Ukrainian soldiers often see only when they are feet away. Hours after Ukrainians clear a field of mines, the Russians sometimes fire another rocket that disperses more of them at the same location.

Under American war doctrine, there is always a main effort to ensure that maximum resources go to a single front, even if supporting forces are fighting in other areas to hedge against failure or spread-out enemy defenses.

But Ukraine and Russia fight under old Soviet Communist doctrine, which seeks to minimize rivalries among factions of the army by providing equal amounts of manpower and equipment across commands. Both armies have failed to prioritize their most important objectives, officials say.


What are the Russian objectives, again? Kiev? Odessa? Kharkiv?

NOPE!

De-Nazify
Demilitarize
Neutralize Ukraine

NATO and Russia are fighting two different wars.

Quote:
Ukraine’s continued focus on Bakhmut, the scene of one of the bloodiest battles of the war, has perplexed U.S. intelligence and military officials. Ukraine has invested huge amounts of resources in defending the surrounding Donbas region, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, does not want to appear as though he is giving up on trying to retake lost territory. But U.S. officials say politics must, at least temporarily, take a back seat to sound military strategy.
Zelensky, by some accounts, is a coke-head, and his objectives and plans make as much sense as Hitler's amphetamine-fueled response to Russian success on "the eastern front".

Quote:
American strategists say that keeping a small force near the destroyed city is justified to pin down Russian troops and prevent them from using it as a base for attack. But Ukraine has enough troops there to try to retake the area, a move that U.S. officials say would lead to large numbers of losses for little strategic gain.

American officials have told Ukrainian leaders that they can secure the land around Bakhmut with far fewer troops and should reallocate forces to targets in the south. that they proritize

Ukrainian leaders have defended their strategy and distribution of forces, saying they are fighting effectively in both the east and the south. The large number of troops is necessary to pressure Bakhmut and to defend against concerted Russian attacks in the country’s northeast, they say. Ukrainian commanders are competing for resources and have their own ideas of where they can succeed.

American officials’ criticisms of Ukraine’s counteroffensive are often cast through the lens of a generation of [American, NATO] military officers who have never experienced a war of this scale and intensity.

Moreover, American war doctrine has never been tested in an environment like Ukraine’s, where Russian electronic warfare jams communications and GPS, and neither military has been able to achieve air superiority.
Wrong.
Russia has near-total air superiority. NATO-supplied anti-air weapons have not been able to prevent widespread strikes on command/data fusion/ merc centers, artillery systems, armored vehicles, Patriot systems, ammo and fuel depots, dockside facilities, grid substations, or anywhere else Russia decides to strike.

Quote:
American officials said Ukraine has another month to six weeks before rainy conditions force a pause in the counteroffensive. Already in August, Ukraine has postponed at least one offensive drive because of rain.

“Terrain conditions are always fundamental drivers” of military operations, General Milley said in an interview with reporters on Sunday. “Fall and spring are not optimal for combined arms operations.”

Wet weather will not stop the fighting, but if Ukraine breaks through Russian lines in the coming weeks, the mud could make it more difficult to capitalize on that success and quickly seize a wide swath of territory, officials said.

More important than the weather, some analysts say, is that Ukraine’s main assault forces may run out of steam by mid- to late September. About a month ago, [July] Ukraine rotated in a second wave of troops to replace an initial force that failed to break through Russian defenses.

Ukraine also shifted its battlefield tactics then, returning to its old ways of wearing down Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles instead of plunging into minefields under fire.
Oh yeah, THAT was a success! hahaha!

Quote:
In recent days, Ukraine has started tapping into its last strategic reserves — air mobile brigades intended to exploit any breakthrough. While fighting could continue for months, U.S. and other Western officials say Ukraine’s counteroffensive would not have enough decisive firepower to reclaim much of the 20 percent of the country that Russia occupies.

U.S. officials say they do not believe the counteroffensive is doomed to failure ...
Well, of course. What else do you expect them to say? "Abandon hope?"

Quote:
but acknowledge that the Ukrainians have not had the success that they or their allies hoped for when the push began.

“We do not assess that the conflict is a stalemate,” Jake Sullivan, the White House’s national security adviser, said on Tuesday. “We continue to support Ukraine in its effort to take territory as part of this counteroffensive, and we are seeing it continue to take territory on a methodical systematic basis.”

While a smaller, dug-in Russian force has performed better in the south than American officials and analysts anticipated, the Kremlin still has systemic problems. Russian troops suffer from poor supply lines, low morale and bad logistics, a senior U.S. military official said.
As judged by ...? Number of shells fired? Troops on stravtion rations?
What?

Quote:
But Russia is keeping with its traditional way of fighting land wars in Europe: performing poorly in the opening months or years before adapting and persevering as the fighting drags on.

By contrast, Ukrainian troops, in launching the counteroffensive, have the steeper hill to climb, the official said. It took them more than two months — rather than the week or so that officials initially thought — to get through [to] the initial Russian defenses.

Several U.S. officials said they expect Ukraine to make it about halfway to the Sea of Azov by winter, when cold weather may dictate another pause in the fighting.


It's not "cold weather". It's lack of everything. A little more honesty would be appreciated

Quote:
Senior U.S. official said that would be a “partial success.” Some analysts say the counteroffensive will fall short of even that more limited goal.

Even if the counteroffensive fails to reach the coast, officials and analysts say if it can make it far enough to put the coastal road within range of Ukrainian artillery and other strikes, it could cause even more problems for Russian forces in the south who depend on that route for supplies.

Speaking to reporters on a flight to Rome on Sunday, General Milley said the past two months of the counteroffensive have been “long, bloody and slow.”

“It’s taken longer than Ukraine had planned,” he said. “But they are making limited progress.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensiv
e-russia-war.html


What baloney!

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Wednesday, August 23, 2023 3:16 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


A while back I watched a TV show with a plot point that featured a government agency bringing down an airplane just to kill a single person on board. Has fiction turned into real life today near Moscow?

Reuters has reported that the Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was listed as a passenger on a private jet that crashed north of Moscow on Wednesday, the TASS news agency reported, citing Rosaviatsia, Russia’s aviation authority.

....The cause of the crash was not immediately clear, but Prigozhin’s longstanding feud with the military and the armed uprising he led in June would give ample motive to the Russian state for revenge. Media channels linked to Wagner quickly suggested that a Russian air defence missile had shot down the plane.

....The plane has been under US sanctions since 2019 because of its connection to Prigozhin. The Wagner chief has been reported to have used the plane, including shortly after his failed mutiny, when the plane departed from St Petersburg to Belarus on the morning of 27 June.

The air defense missile theory is just a rumor at this point, but who knows? It's hardly unthinkable that Vladimir Putin would do something like this. It's the kind of thing that happens when you launch a military coup in Russia, even if you call it off and apologize afterward. All ten people aboard the plane were killed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/aug/23/russia-ukraine-war-
live-updates-drones-downed-moscow

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, August 23, 2023 4:18 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I saw video, the jet was coming straight down, like a stone, trailing a vapor cloud or white smoke. No forward momentum at all. Almost as if the elevators were screwed up and the jet was diving.

Very strange. I'm sure it means something but I don't know what. More claims and counter claims will follow, and maybe in the hash there will be some info.

*****

Ukraine has dedicated itself to capturing Rabotino, and has been trying sucks June 5. They threw the 82nd and a couple of infantry brigades into the fray, and will probably take Rabotino by tomorrow, Ukraine independence day.

That takes the sting away from Ukraine planning a cemetary for 600,000 and announcing a 200,000 mobilization. (Most people say the real goal is 400,000 but he doesn't want people running away to other countries.)

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Wednesday, August 23, 2023 8:57 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


One in Five of Russian Air Force Losses During War Self-Inflicted
By Ellie Cook, 8/23/23

Between February 24, 2022, when Moscow's troops crossed over into Ukraine, and August 17, 2023, 21.7 percent—or one in five—of Russia's verified manned aircraft losses, which includes jets, helicopters and transport aircraft, were blamed on Russian system malfunctions, pilot errors, friendly fire or other accidents not related to direct combat against Ukraine.

High Russian aircraft losses during training or non-combat missions can be chalked up to several factors, experts suggest, not least Russia's oversights in maintaining its aircraft, investing time in training pilots to a high standard and being rigorous about safety procedures.

As of August 17, 2023, at least 48 units were lost independent of Ukrainian operations. These include seven Su-25 jets, four MiG-31 supersonic interceptors and three of Russia's prized scout-attack Ka-52 "Alligator" helicopters.

At least 48 of the 221 verified manned aviation losses were not-combat related, or were otherwise self-inflicted, which amounts to around 21.7 percent, or approximately one in five. That includes 26.7 percent of all fighter jets and other types of planes lost in the period in question, and 17.5 percent of the helicopter losses.

While these numbers are by no means exhaustive, with further unreported losses, both combat and non-combat, likely to emerge (and some may never be revealed), they still offer a damning assessment of the current state of Russia's air force.

Why Do Russian Aircraft Keep Crashing?

Accidents during training are normal and expected, but a competent air force will try to minimize these often-fatal accidents, said Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst with the Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS). "Russia lacks experienced pilots," he told Newsweek.

Poor basic training pre-dated Moscow's war effort. In February 2022, Russia had many more jets than truly experienced pilots, with the less experienced contingent having around half the flying time usually designated for pilots in NATO air forces, Mertens said. Training aircraft before the war also left much to be desired.

The intensity of the air operations and the scale of Russian losses have forced Moscow to deploy its instructors on combat missions.

"This both limits the time these pilot trainers have to train other pilots and exposes your trainers to losses," Mertens said.

This has a knock-on effect. The Russian air force needs to recruit more pilots, but there are fewer instructors to teach them.

The problems also extend to the aircraft, which Mertens said were poorly maintained, and have questionable safety precautions. On top of scant training, this adds to the reasons why Russian self-inflicted losses are a significant proportion of their downed aircraft.

More at https://www.newsweek.com/russia-air-force-fighter-jets-helicopters-ukr
aine-war-1820623

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, August 23, 2023 9:08 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Prigozhin’s Death Heralds Even More Spectacular Violence

by Anne Applebaum, Updated at 8:20 p.m. ET on August 23, 2023

What will others in the Russian president’s circle do now?

Vladimir Putin’s Russia has long been a land of mysterious deaths. In 1998, soon after he had been appointed head of the security services, Galina Starovoitova, a parliamentarian who believed in bringing democracy to Russia, was gunned down in the stairwell of her apartment building in St. Petersburg. In 2006, Anna Politkovskaya, a journalist who had learned too much about the Chechen wars that Putin used to propel himself to power, met the same fate in the stairwell of her apartment building in Moscow. In 2015, Boris Nemtsov, an outspoken critic of Putin’s presidency, was killed by an assassin only steps away from the Kremlin. Other critics barely survived. In 2020, Alexei Navalny, organizer of the only truly national anti-Putin political movement, fell critically ill on a flight from Tomsk to Moscow after being poisoned.

All of these victims were Putin’s formal opponents, people who spoke or wrote in opposition to the kleptocracy he built. Since Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a different class of victims—members of the Russian business elite who were perhaps insufficiently loyal or insufficiently keen on the war—have also begun to die in strange circumstances. In the year and a half that has passed since February 2022, two gas-industry executives were found dead with suicide notes. Three Russian executives were killed, alongside their wives and children, in what appeared to be murder-suicides. The body of the owner of a resort in Sochi was discovered at the bottom of a cliff. Another executive was found floating in a pool in St. Petersburg. Others have fallen out of windows or down staircases in Moscow, India, the French Riviera, and Washington, D.C.

Still, even on the very long list of people who have been shot, hanged, poisoned, or subjected to lethal accidents because they somehow got in Putin’s way, Yevgeny Prigozhin stands out. Prigozhin’s private plane mysteriously fell from the sky this afternoon, following an explosion of what seems to be either a bomb or a rocket. Russian authorities reported that Prigozhin was on the passenger list, although Western intelligence agencies could not immediately confirm he had boarded the plane. Either way, someone took down the plane, and that someone could only have acted on Putin’s orders, or at least in anticipation of such orders (Will no one rid me of this turbulent mercenary?). But Prigozhin wasn’t an opponent of Putin; he helped create Putin. He wasn’t a critic of Putin’s kleptocracy; he built the Wagner mercenary group, which supported African and Middle Eastern dictators and exploited diamond mines on behalf of Moscow too. He also ran the Internet Research Agency, the organization that used hacking, leaking, and social media to help elect Donald Trump.

Prigozhin was no opponent of the current war either. His men, and the convicts they recruited, fought the long, bitter battle of Bakhmut, achieving the only significant Russian victory in Ukraine so far this year. Thousands of Russian soldiers, maybe tens of thousands, died in that struggle, thanks to military tactics so wasteful of human life that they are described by the Russians themselves as the “meat grinder.” Along the way, Prigozhin did begin to have some doubts about how the war was being fought, and maybe about the true motives of some of those leading the battle. As a result, he dared to challenge the Russian army leadership, and thus the Russian president, in a bizarre and largely unopposed march into the military headquarters of the city of Rostov-on-Don, and then nearly all the way to Moscow, exactly 60 days ago.

So, yes, this is another mysterious death, but it is a new kind of mysterious death. With this plane crash, the violence on the periphery of Russia’s empire has now migrated to its very heart. Putin’s rule has always been maintained by a heady combination of opportunism, bribery, and the facade of Russian nationalism, propped up by the subtle threat of violence. In the aftermath of Prigozhin’s rebellion, Putin needs something more spectacular: theatrical, public violence; violence of the kind that brings down a plane soon after takeoff in the middle of a sunny day; violence designed to terrify anyone who secretly wished for Prigozhin’s victory.

He may soon need a lot more of it. There is no mutual trust among Russia’s elite, no true shared ideology beyond self-interest, and no wonder: Prigozhin’s safety, and the safety of his mercenaries, was supposed to be guaranteed by Aleksandr Lukashenko, the dictator of Belarus. That promise, like most of Putin’s promises, turned out to be empty. Everyone who is still part of the inner circle already hires bodyguards and, if they can, sends their family abroad. Those who can afford it already have private armies. Anyone associated with Prigozhin now has new reasons to fear for their safety too. One general close to Prigozhin was relieved of his command today. He had not been seen in public for many weeks. Prigozhin’s deputy, Dmitry Utkin, died today on the plane along with him.

But many others in Moscow knew Prigozhin, worked with Prigozhin, and benefited from Prigozhin’s businesses, military and criminal. Will they wait passively for violence to consume them? Will they escape—there were reports earlier this week that Wagner troops were already leaving their newly built camps in Belarus—or will they try to strike first? “Grey Zone,” a Telegram channel associated with the Wagner Group, has already made this threat explicit: “The assassination of Prigozhin will have catastrophic consequences,” one posting today declared. “The people who gave the order do not understand the mood in the army and morale at all. Let this be a lesson to all. You always have to go to the end.”

By “the end” the author means Moscow. Prigozhin didn’t go to Moscow. Maybe somebody else now will.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/08/yevgeny-prighozin-pu
tin-enemies-dead/675097/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, August 23, 2023 9:46 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine used 3% of US defense budget to destroy half of Russian army — Lindsey Graham

August 23, 2023, 04:35 PM

"This is the best investment for American security ever; Ukraine is a fantastic partner — we have not seen such a partner since Churchill," the senator said.

The Washington Post reported that the total amount of aid provided by Washington to Ukraine now exceeds $66 billion.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-used-3-of-us-defense-budget-to-de
stroy-half-of-russian-army-war-news-50348574.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, August 23, 2023 9:54 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Putin’s adviser says U.S. is using brainwashing to make gay Ukrainian super-soldiers

The Ukraine's Armed Forces will become "zombified and unified through gay sex, along with cult members ready to sacrifice themselves," he said.

By Daniel Villarreal Sunday, August 20, 2023

An adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that Ukraine’s military will become “unified through gay sex” like the Greek Spartans.

While the comment may seem bizarre, it’s just the latest example of Russian authorities using anti-LGBTQ+ nationalist sentiment to justify its unprovoked war against Ukraine.

“Military theorists and historians know which army in Greece was the strongest, remember? The Spartans! They were united by a homosexual brotherhood. They were all homos. These were the politics of their leadership. I think they are planning the same for Ukraine’s Armed Forces,” Sergei Markov, a former adviser to Putin, said while appearing on Russian TV, Newsweek reported.

Markov said the U.S. and Ukraine will use “neuro-linguistic programming” and other brainwashing techniques to turn Ukrainian soldiers gay against their will. In reality, there’s no evidence that psychological methods can change a person’s sexual orientation.

“They have an artificial political science fascism created by American and British political technologists. They will turn them into zombies, into cult members. I think they will force some to become homosexuals,” Markov claimed.

“These renewed troops of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, zombified and unified through gay sex, along with cult members ready to sacrifice themselves. This is what they’re preparing for us in the spring 2025,” he added.

There is some historical evidence to suggest that the Spartans of Ancient Greece may have encouraged homosexual activity as a way to encourage soldiers to stay in the military and fight for their partners’ lives. The evidence also suggests that Spartan soldiers were expected to age out of such activities after completing a certain stage of their military training.

The most famous gay military force in Ancient Greece was actually not Spartan but the Sacred Band of Thebes, an elite military force deliberately comprised of 150 gay or bisexual couples that defeated the Spartans and murdered both Spartan kings in a single campaign.

Regardless, Markov’s comments may be less interested in historical accuracy and more interested in inspiring anti-LGBTQ+ disgust in Russian viewers against Ukraine and its ally, the United States.

In an October 2022 speech, Putin said that the war against Ukraine was necessary because the U.S. wants to push gender “perversions” on Russian schoolchildren.

“[Western countries] spit on the natural right of billions of people, most of humanity, to freedom and justice, to determine their own future on their own. Now they have completely moved to a radical denial of moral norms, religion, and family,” Putin said.

Putin has claimed that the U.S. has used the North American Treaty Organization (NATO), the Western alliance seeking to limit Russia’s military expansion, in order to “contain Russia.” He has complained that Ukraine’s possible entry into NATO would “undermine Russia’s security” by installing NATO’s military at Russia’s borders.

NATO has said that it won’t send any troops to Ukraine. However, it has said it will increase its military presence along the eastern border of its member states closest to Russia in case Putin attempts to expand his conquest.

It has been over 540 days since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2023/08/putins-adviser-says-u-s-is-using-b
rainwashing-to-make-gay-ukrainian-super-soldiers/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, August 24, 2023 10:51 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Masked men claiming to belong to the Wagner group have warned the Kremlin to “get ready for us” after the reported death of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. (Assassins who warn their target are like deer hunters who fire a warning shot before aiming at the deer. Neither will bring home the kill.)

Mr Prigozhin’s fate has been the subject of intense speculation ever since he mounted a short-lived mutiny against Russia's military leadership in late June. President Putin and the Kremlin have yet to comment on the crash.

For weeks, a question had hung over the Kremlin: how was it that the leader of a mercenary group had been able to lead his troops in a short-lived mutiny against the Russian top brass and still be swanning around the country – and indeed the world – with impunity? This, despite dire warnings from President Putin at the start of the mutiny that this was treachery, that the country was threatened with civil war and that no one responsible would go unpunished.

On Thursday, two months to the day from this act of rebellion, that question appeared to find its answer. One of two private planes flying in convoy from Moscow to St. Petersburg crashed in the region of Tver. Among the 10 people listed as being on board were Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, and his deputy, Dmitry Utkin. Prigozhin had led the mutiny; Utkin was the founder of the Wagner group and is said to have named it after his call-sign when he was a member of Russia’s special forces in the Chechen wars.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/russia-putin-prigozhin-plane-cras
h-killed-b2398611.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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Thursday, August 24, 2023 11:10 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The Wall Street Journal
U.S., Ukraine Clash Over Counteroffensive Strategy
Story by Michael R. Gordon, Gordon Lubold, James Marson, Vivian Salama

U.S. and Ukrainian officials have been engaged in an intense behind-the-scenes debate for weeks over the strategy and tactics for reviving Kyiv’s slow-moving counteroffensive.

American military officials have been urging the Ukrainians to return to the combined arms training they received at allied bases in Europe by concentrating their forces to try to bust through Russia defenses and push to the Sea of Azov.

Kyiv has made some adjustments in recent weeks, but the two sides are still at odds about how to turn the tables on the Russians in the limited time they have before winter sets in.

“You don’t understand the nature of this conflict,” Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, the Ukrainian commander, responded in one interaction with the Americans, a U.S. official recounted. “This is not counterinsurgency. This is Kursk,” the commander added, referring to the major World War II battle between Germany and the Soviet Union.

A spokesman for the Ukrainian commander didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The American advice is based on the calculation that the surge of equipment the U.S. has funneled to Ukraine—more than $43 billion in weaponry has been committed over the years—is enough for this offensive and is unlikely to be repeated at anywhere near the same level in 2024.

“We built up this mountain of steel for the counteroffensive. We can’t do that again,” one former U.S. official said. “It doesn’t exist.”

It isn’t too late for Ukraine to make gains, according to U.S. officials.

Ukrainian commanders also say that time hasn’t yet run out on their counteroffensive, and Zaluzhny has told U.S. officials his forces are on the cusp of a breakthrough.

Yet deep divisions over the strategy linger. The U.S. for the past several weeks has urged the Ukrainians to mass their forces and concentrate in an area north of Tokmak in the south to push through the first line of Russian defenses, generally acknowledged as the toughest line to break.

While there are differing views within the U.S. government, one official said that Washington has conveyed “serious frustration” with Ukraine’s strategy, particularly President Volodymyr Zelensky’s focus on Bakhmut, which some Ukrainian officers see as useful to build morale and create a buffer zone in the east.

After U.S. officials cautioned against dissipating their efforts, the Ukrainians adjusted their strategy and went on the defensive in the eastern part of Zaporizhzhia. That change has enabled the Ukrainians to conserve their forces for the main attack elsewhere and limit their expenditure of artillery.

But U.S. officials say the Ukrainians are still spread too thin for a concentrated push south with numerous brigades deployed in the east and are still not combining the use of artillery, mechanized units and mine-clearing efforts.

Holding casualties to a minimum is needed to preserve their longer-term fighting potential, the Ukrainians say. But U.S. officials say the Ukrainians’ small-unit attacks on narrow fronts slow the offensive and give the Russians more opportunity to respond, including with mines that are dispensed through artillery strikes and units armed with rocket-propelled grenades.

The current state of play has sparked worries that Ukraine’s fight against Russia might be entering a stalemate, a contention President Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, has denied.

“No, we do not assess that the conflict is a stalemate,” Sullivan told reporters Tuesday. The battlefield, he said, is changing every day.

At the heart of the debate between Washington and Kyiv is the U.S.-provided combined arms training the Ukrainians have received in recent months that was intended to prepare them for their offensive in the south.

The U.S. and its partners have trained more than 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers at more than 40 training areas. But the crux of the U.S. combined arms training in Germany was on 14 motorized-infantry, mechanized and national-guard battalions—some 8,000 troops—who were to push through Russia’s lines or secure terrain.

The 12-week training program for those battalions included instruction on using their artillery, mechanized units and infantry together. It culminated in a weeklong battalion-level exercise with Ukrainian forces squared off against a mock adversary played by U.S. forces.

Two additional battalions, one national guard and one armored, are also undergoing training. The latter is equipped with 31 Abrams tanks and will be deployed in the fall along with armored vehicles to breach minefields and combat engineering equipment, said Col. Martin O’Donnell, a U.S. Army spokesman in Europe.

The training is intended to enable Ukrainian forces to break through their foe’s defenses and maneuver in the Russians’ rear area, but without the advantages the U.S. military has long enjoyed, especially air power.

Ukraine has only a small air force, and the delivery of American-made F-16s isn’t expected until mid to late 2024. While U.S. officials say that simulations indicated that the Ukrainians could succeed anyway, some in the Pentagon acknowledge the challenge.

Christine Wormuth, the U.S. Army secretary, said recently that the U.S. military would find this sort of fighting challenging, particularly if they didn’t have air superiority and the adversary had time to prepare its defenses. “Our soldiers have years to practice this, and the Ukrainians had several weeks to work on this,” she said.

Some former officials say that the Pentagon’s frustration with the pace of the Ukrainian attack is misplaced.

“When America fights with combined arms, it fights with battlefield air superiority,” said Philip Breedlove, a retired U.S. Air Force general who served as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s top military commander from 2013 to 2016.

“Ukraine doesn’t have that. Nor have we given Ukraine long-range precise artillery,” he added. “So when there is all this talk that they are failing with combined arms, we need to look in the mirror.”

Some Ukrainian soldiers who have been fighting from the beginning of the war expressed frustration that the tanks and armored vehicles had been given to newly formed units that include soldiers with little or no combat experience. The share of Ukrainian soldiers in the U.S.-trained battalions who have previous combat experience varies from about 50% to 70%, U.S. officials say.

Others say the reality of fighting on first contact with the enemy shocked them. One soldier from the 47th Brigade recounted an assault on a Russian trench, the company’s first infantry engagement in real war, which was against one of the best-fortified lines that Russia has in all of Ukraine.

“However tough exercises were, it’s much harder” in reality, the soldier said.

Defending its approach, Kyiv argues that its slow offensive is still playing out on the ground. On Tuesday, Ukrainian forces retook Robotyne, a village on the road south that lies just north of Russia’s main defensive line.

The assault on the village was led by a unit that has honed its tactics since the start of the war, first targeting enemy fortifications using artillery directed by drones, then sending in assault teams on foot.

“It’s a small victory,” Maj. Yuriy Harkaviy, the unit’s commander, wrote in a message. “Larger ones are ahead. My goal is the Azov.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-ukraine-clash-over-counteroff
ensive-strategy/ar-AA1fIxP7

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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Thursday, August 24, 2023 11:32 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I see SECOND is spewing official lies like there's no tomorrow.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Thursday, August 24, 2023 3:49 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


The jet was a Wagner business jet, and the three top Wagner guys, including Prigozhin, were onboard.

There is better video of the falling Wagner jet, and pictures of the pieces on the ground. Aside from the fact that the wreckage shows no sign at all of anti-aircraft shrapnel, nobody has reported pieces of an anti-aircraft missile having fallen to the ground.

You will have to follow the link, but it is a chart of the jet's vertical ascent and airspeed. The pilot manages a normal ascent, but he keeps gassing the jets in an unsteady fashion, almost as if he was compensating for some onboard problem.

Not an expert, but this could have been a mechanical failure.

EDITED TO ADD:
Or it might have been sabotage. No evidence of having been "shot out of the sky".

AFA possible suspects, it seems Prigozhin was on a lot of people's shit lists including Putin"s. But it's unlikely that Putin has anything to.do.wiyh it bc he was busy convincing leaders and potential members at the BRICS summit that Russia is stable and the "mutiny" was meaningless, so why bring Prigozhin to world attention, again?

"Dima", of Military Summary Channel, is convinced it was the Ukrainian GRU, and that the purpose was to further demoralize Russian troops, who are already demoralized from fighting defense all the time.

A Russian commentator is convinced it was an internal power struggle within Wagner.

Some say it was vengeance on the part of some of a convict's family for throwing so.many into the fray at Bakhmut with little training and getting so.many killed.

The CIA itself has been mentioned as a possibility: They get to interrupt any plans Wagner had for Niger/ Africa, embarrass Putin with BRICS attendees, and stir up more trouble between Wagner and the Russian MoD. What's not to like?

Even France might have an interest in seeing Prigozhin gone bc if it's interests in Niger.

Analysis courtesy of Alexander Mercouris of The Duran.


https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,
fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4dc782ed-5d3b-49f5-b830-c00a9cba97ec_591x1164.jpeg



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Thursday, August 24, 2023 10:03 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Well, I guess Zelenskiy didn't get to claim Rabotyno for Ukrainian Independence Day (today), like he wanted.

Rabotyno is the area of that giant early June clusterfuck of a "combined arms" attack where dozens of Leopard 2s and Bradleys got caught in minefields and taken out by drone and artillery. In fact, so many Bradleys were destroyed in a field before Rabotino that the field is colloquially named "Bradley Square".

Ukraine has been trying to advance on this area ever since, losing thousands of men in the process, and deployed their last remaining elite unit- the 82nd Brigade, along with the 43rd tank brigade, to take the village..

Apparently this is such a critical objective for the USA that Ukrainians will keep on it no matter how many men and weapons they lose. It threatens to become another Bakhmut.

And this area of the front is where Ukraine is shown the MOST progress, so far.




-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Thursday, August 24, 2023 11:51 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
The jet was a Wagner business jet, and the three top Wagner guys, including Prigozhin, were onboard.


Prigozhin wasn't on that plane. The only thing he was on was the flight manifest.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Friday, August 25, 2023 7:41 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Well, I guess Zelenskiy didn't get to claim Rabotyno for Ukrainian Independence Day (today), like he wanted.

Rabotyno is the area of that giant early June clusterfuck of a "combined arms" attack where dozens of Leopard 2s and Bradleys got caught in minefields and taken out by drone and artillery. In fact, so many Bradleys were destroyed in a field before Rabotino that the field is colloquially named "Bradley Square".

Ukraine has been trying to advance on this area ever since, losing thousands of men in the process, and deployed their last remaining elite unit- the 82nd Brigade, along with the 43rd tank brigade, to take the village..

Apparently this is such a critical objective for the USA that Ukrainians will keep on it no matter how many men and weapons they lose. It threatens to become another Bakhmut.

And this area of the front is where Ukraine is shown the MOST progress, so far.
Ukraine vs. Russia is Dumb vs. Dumber.

A Russian helicopter crew freaked out, tried to run, and was killed after realizing their captain had defected to Ukraine, official says. If the Russian crew was not dumber than dirt, they would have surrendered. If the crew had an ounce of sense, they couldn't have been hijacked by their captain and flown to Cuba, I mean, Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-russian-helicopter-crew-freaked
-out-tried-to-run-and-was-killed-after-realizing-their-captain-had-defected-to-ukraine-official-says/ar-AA1fIDzW

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, August 25, 2023 7:58 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Prigozhin wasn't on that plane. The only thing he was on was the flight manifest.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.
Remember this about Prigozhin? Russia's Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, said on Sunday that a former mercenary who was filmed being executed by a sledgehammer blow to the head after changing sides in the Ukraine war was a traitor.

Asked to comment on the execution video, Prigozhin said in remarks released by his spokeswoman that the video should be called "A dog receives a dog's death".

"Nuzhin betrayed his people, betrayed his comrades, betrayed consciously," said Prigozhin, who has been sanctioned by the United States and European Union for his role in Wagner. "Nuzhin was a traitor."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sledgehammer-execution-russian-me
rcenary-who-defected-ukraine-shown-video-2022-11-13/

If Prigozhin is dead, he got exactly what he deserved, according to Prigozhin's "moral" code.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, August 25, 2023 3:06 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russians have emigrated in huge numbers since the war in Ukraine

The exodus adds to Vladimir Putin’s economic woes

Aug 23rd 2023



THE FIRST exodus came at the start of the war: up to 300,000 Russians fled the country in the first few months of their president’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A second wave set off when Vladimir Putin announced a “partial mobilisation” in September, and desperate young men rushed to border crossings to avoid the draft. Establishing the precise scale of emigration prompted by the war is tricky. The Kremlin has, unsurprisingly, not published data on the matter. And independent estimates have varied from 500,000 to 1m. But a new analysis has narrowed that range (see chart).

Re: Russia, an analysis and policy network, has examined various estimates and available data from countries that have accepted large numbers of Russian émigrés. They found that between 817,000 and 922,000 people have left Russia since February 2022. The largest recipient countries were Kazakhstan and Serbia, each with 150,000 emigrants. But Russians have moved all over the world, including between 30,000 and 40,000 who went to America, according to the estimates.

There are uncertainties about the data. Russians may travel through several transit countries before settling. Others return home having struggled to establish a life abroad, often citing difficulties securing work. Some returnees suggest they will try to emigrate again once their financial circumstances allow it.

Emigration from Mr Putin’s Russia is not new. In the first 19 years of his rule 1.6m-2m people left the country (though the rate had been declining since the turbulent decade after 1989). The rate increased significantly around 2012, when Mr Putin returned to the Russian presidency in an election marked by fraud and protests (see chart). Yet the invasion of Ukraine has caused the single largest exodus prompted by political upheaval since the 1920s.

Also significant is the profile of those who are able to move. In general, Russia’s wartime émigrés have relatively high levels of income, social capital and education. That is bad news for Russia, both economically and socially. Re: Russia reckons that the wartime emigrants account for roughly 1% of Russia’s workforce, exacerbating an acute labour shortage. The Gaidar Institute, a think-tank in Moscow, said that 35% of manufacturing businesses did not have enough workers in April, the highest figure since 1996. Shortages of specialists are especially severe: according to one Kremlin official, at least 100,000 IT professionals left the country in 2022. With no vision for the future aside from international isolation and war, the Kremlin will struggle to stem the tide.

More at https://web.archive.org/web/20230824145303/https://www.economist.com/g
raphic-detail/2023/08/23/russians-have-emigrated-in-huge-numbers-since-the-war-in-ukraine

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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Saturday, August 26, 2023 7:12 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


TOO BAD YOUR GRAPH DOESN'T INCLUDE 2022. Because that was the start of the SMO.

Kinda makes the chart pointless, doesn't it?

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, August 26, 2023 8:12 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
TOO BAD YOUR GRAPH DOESN'T INCLUDE 2022. Because that was the start of the SMO.

Kinda makes the chart pointless, doesn't it?
I get the feeling you missed the point. Imagine this scenario: Ukraine has a list of the 922,000 most productive, smartest Russians and killed them all. That would be a loss for Russia almost as devastating as 922,000 dead Russian soldiers. Russia did have that loss, but fortunately for the Russians on the list, they moved on to better lives elsewhere than Russia.

Re: Russia, an analysis and policy network, has examined various estimates and available data from countries that have accepted large numbers of Russian émigrés. They found that between 817,000 and 922,000 people have left Russia since February 2022. The largest recipient countries were Kazakhstan and Serbia, each with 150,000 emigrants. But Russians have moved all over the world, including between 30,000 and 40,000 who went to America, according to the estimates.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 26, 2023 8:35 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


‘Aren’t You a Man?’: How Russia Goads Citizens Into the Army

by Anton Troianovski, Alina Lobzina, Sarah Kerr, Natalie Reneau

The Times tracked several months of Russian state messaging in the Kremlin’s effort to recruit soldiers.

A supermarket security guard, a taxi driver, a guy at the gym. The Russian government has a message for all of them: Aren’t you a man?

And don’t you want to earn more money?

Last spring, the Russian military kicked off a new recruitment drive for the war in Ukraine, seeking to replace tens of thousands of dead and wounded without having to resort to an unpopular draft. For the last four months, The New York Times has tracked how the campaign played out on Russian state television and social media, and found that recruitment messages focused on the Kremlin’s official rationale for the invasion — an existential threat from the West against Russians — played only a supporting role.

Rather, there were frequent appeals to masculinity, sometimes voiced by soldiers’ wives and other women interviewed on television news. There were incessant reminders of above-average pay and benefits for military servicemen. And the messages — appearing both in video ads produced by the Defense Ministry and on regular TV newscasts — stress the ease of signing up, promising relief from Russia’s notorious bureaucracy.

The campaign appeared to start in April. Online, the Defense Ministry published a splashy video ad focusing on two central motivations: machismo, and money. It defines military service as more meaningful — and manly — than what’s depicted as the Russian man’s typical, humdrum existence. After moody shots of civilians transforming into modern warriors, the ad ends with a more down-to-earth reminder: “Monthly payments starting at 204,000 rubles,” or about $2,000.

The themes in the Russian Defense Ministry’s recruitment campaign are picked up frequently in television newscasts — as would be expected, since all of Russia’s major television channels are controlled by the state. But the news anchors and reporters delivering the message are essentially acting as glorified recruiters themselves, repeatedly reminding viewers of the quick-dial phone number — 1-1-7 — they can turn to if they want to sign up to fight.

Since the invasion’s beginning, state television newscasts have been offering viewers a sanitized view of the war. Death and injury of Russians are rarely mentioned. The war itself is referred to with the Kremlin’s anodyne term, “special military operation,” or simply by the term’s Russian initials: “the S.V.O.”

But there are signs that, at least in some regions, the costs of war have now become too widespread to ignore. During a local morning newscast in the city of Irkutsk, in Siberia, on Aug. 9, a reporter introduces a piece about new “mobile” recruitment stands with an interview of a Ukraine war veteran wounded last year.

“I got all the payments that contract servicemen are entitled to if they’re wounded,” the veteran, Nikolai Karpenko, says.

“Contract military service, Nikolai says, gave him the chance to show that he’s a real defender of the fatherland,” the reporter intones.

The message: Yes, you could get hurt, but the government will take care of you. And you will have shown your patriotism.

The recruitment drive appears to have borne some fruit. The Kremlin has been able to keep its invasion going without resorting to a second draft, after mobilizing some 300,000 civilians last fall. And Ukraine’s counteroffensive this summer has run into fierce Russian resistance.

But analysts believe that Russia’s official recruitment figures, claiming that 1,400 people were signing up per day last month, are likely to be overstated — and that a second draft could still come. New laws passed this summer would make it much harder for Russians to dodge the draft if another was declared.

“Soldiers are not being relieved or regularly rotated on the front, suggesting there is still a manpower problem,” said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation who studies the Russian military. “It looks like the Kremlin is waiting as long as possible again to make a decision on mobilization, like last fall.”
A Prime Incentive: Money

Ever since the invasion’s beginning, the Kremlin has deployed Russia’s vast wealth to motivate men to sign up to fight — and to mollify families that lost loved ones. The advertised minimum monthly pay of about $2,000 a month, at the current exchange rate, is nearly triple the nationwide average income; families of soldiers killed in action are paid $50,000, enough to purchase a decent home in many regions.

One recurring state TV ad shows just how central material benefits are to the recruitment drive. Set to rock music, it reels off specific benefits like a “land tax exemption,” “compensation for household utility bills,” and vouchers for sanatoriums, or health resorts.

“Here, you’ll be treated fairly,” the ad concludes.

Television news reports follow up that message by emphasizing a streamlined process for signing up.

An April 18 segment aired on Channel 1, one of the main nationwide channels, describes joining the ranks of the military as being as simple as filling out some routine paperwork. It compares recruitment offices to the user-friendly service centers that the government rolled out across the country in recent years to streamline and digitize the country’s daunting bureaucracy.

“There’s an electronic queue, and volunteers are always ready to consult and help,” the reporter says, as the camera shows a young woman in a sweater with “Volunteer” written across the back.

Be a Patriot, Fulfill a Childhood Dream

The appeal to masculinity is pervasive, attempting to tap into deeply entrenched expectations of duty and service for Russian males. The April 18 news segment, for instance, refers to being a soldier as “unquestionably the manliest job.’’

At times, the appeal is blatant and superficial.

The same Channel 1 report featured a message from a man identified as a “commander of assault groups.”

“Here, you can find yourselves as real men, earn a fair salary, and make all your childhood dreams and wishes come true,” he says.

The message that service is a man’s duty also sometimes comes from fresh recruits and their families. The April 18 clip also shows three cousins boarding buses to head to training. The reporter declares that their wives, sisters and mothers “supported the decisions of their loved ones.”

One of the cousins says that his brothers, colleagues and classmates were already in the military and that “everything is going well.”

“It’s kind of hard to stay here while they are there,” he says.

Suffering Peeks Through

The realities of the war itself are described sparingly, if at all. On the nightly news, the action on the battlefield is often described in stilted roll-calls of “heroes” that don’t specify whether the men are still alive. In a segment from June 7, a sergeant is praised for having restored communications with his unit despite continuous shelling, while another was said to have “personally destroyed” a Ukrainian machine-gun crew.

But in some cases, the suffering of military families comes to light, even as state television attempts to cast the government as taking care of them. In the same Aug. 9 Irkutsk newscast that reported on new mobile recruitment stands, another segment heralds the opening of a new support center for soldiers’ families.

It includes an interview with the wife of a soldier who, she says, has had only one two-week vacation since volunteering for the war last September.

“It’s getting harder and harder every day,” she says.

A version of this article appears in print on Aug. 24, 2023, Section A, Page 6 of the New York edition with the headline: Russia Recruiting Drive: ‘Real Men’ Join the Army.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/23/world/europe/russia-war-military-re
cruitment-campaign.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 26, 2023 10:41 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine Is Determined to Blow Russia's Bridges to Crimea

The debate about Ukraine has been centered in the West on how Putin and Russia would react to losing Crimea and not on how Russian-occupied Crimea functions as a core component of Russia’s military domination.

Ukrainian strikes on the Kerch Strait crossing will continue and are also very likely to intensify in the near future. It is almost certain that Putin’s beloved bridges will end up at the bottom of the ocean before the end of the war.

Ukraine’s allies can make a difference here by finally providing Kyiv with the long-range missile systems it has been asking for. Sending U.S.-made ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missile systems would put much more of Russia’s military infrastructure within Ukrainian missile range and would spell disaster for the Kerch Strait bridges. This increased capability would provide Ukraine the opportunity to finally respond to the routine bombardment Ukrainian cities have suffered since the start of this war due to Russia’s Crimean military facilities.

Moscow remains emboldened diplomatically and militarily around the peninsula because these bases are currently far enough from the front line that they can function with relative impunity. Ukraine is trying to shift that dynamic.

Both Moscow’s and Kyiv’s international allies need to understand that even without the bridge, a Russian-occupied Crimea poses a critical threat to Ukraine’s survival, and as far as the Ukrainian government is concerned, the destruction of the Kerch Strait bridges will only serve as a prelude to the eventual campaign for the total liberation of the Crimean Peninsula.

Ukraine may pull this off. It won’t stop trying—and there is no point in diplomats or analysts laboring under the absurd assumption that the Ukrainian position on this can be negotiated away in a future deal.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/22/russia-crimea-bridges-ukraine-inv
asion/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 26, 2023 12:06 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


It is Saturday and time for Russia to make a new threat to nuke the world!

Putin Ally Issues Ominous Warning on Threat of New World War

By Thomas Kika On 8/26/23 at 10:34 AM EDT

Dmitry Medvedev, a Kremlin official and ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, accused Western powers of ignoring "signals" from Moscow and pushing towards a world war, according to state-run news agency, Tass.

Medvedev previously served as the president of Russia from 2008 to 2012, between Putin's first and second terms, and as prime minister from 2012 to 2020. He currently serves as deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia and is considered a major Kremlin propagandist.

In an interview segment published on Saturday, Medvedev told the state-run news agencies Tass and RT that Western nations, not Russia, were pushing the world closer to a new world war. A similar sentiment has been echoed by pro-Russia voices since the start of the country's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

"Frankly speaking, it would have definitely been better if they had heard them [the signals]," Medvedev said. "In any case, the world would not have to face the threat of World War III. In fact, this is where our opponents are actively pushing everyone."

He further stressed, according to Tass, that the West "failed to hear our signals."

Over the past year-and-a-half, Medvedev has frequently made similar comments about Russia's enemies risking World War III or nuclear war, usually in relation to their opposition to the invasion and support of Ukraine.

In July, he accused President Joe Biden of "provoking nuclear Armageddon" after the United States announced that it would provide controversial cluster bombs to Ukraine as part of its ongoing military aid, adding that the move would risk "a Third World War." In earlier comments, he also suggested that Biden, due to his advanced age, could "absent-mindedly start World War III."

In March, Medvedev invoked World War III after The Hague war crimes court in the Netherlands concluded that Putin had committed war crimes in Ukraine, specifically citing the mass deportation of Ukrainian children, and issued a warrant for his arrest. Medvedev suggested that the Russian leader's arrest would be considered an act of war against Russia.

"Let's imagine—obviously this situation which will never be realized, but nevertheless let's imagine that it was realized. The current head of the nuclear state went to a territory—say, Germany—and was arrested," Medvedev said at the time, according to state-run news agency RIA Novosti. "What would that be? It would be a declaration of war on the Russian Federation."

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-ally-issues-ominous-warning-threat-new-
world-war-1822664

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 26, 2023 12:55 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
TOO BAD YOUR GRAPH DOESN'T INCLUDE 2022. Because that was the start of the SMO.

Kinda makes the chart pointless, doesn't it?

SECOND: I get the feeling you missed the point.
I get the point. What is missing is THE DATA.

From your article:

Quote:
The Kremlin has, unsurprisingly, not published data on the matter. And independent estimates have varied from 500,000 to 1m. But a new analysis has narrowed that range (see chart).


See chart?
It's missing the year that they're purportedly talking about.

But if you want to compare emigration, country to country, Ukraine has lost at least 5 million to other countries, including about 1.5 million to Russia.



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, August 26, 2023 2:34 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

See chart?
It's missing the year that they're purportedly talking about.

But if you want to compare emigration, country to country, Ukraine has lost at least 5 million to other countries, including about 1.5 million to Russia.
When this war is all over, Russians will brag that they killed/wounded/displaced millions of Ukrainians and destroyed trillions of dollars of Ukrainian property, which all adds up in the Russian mind that Russia is the winner. In Ukraine, they will see victory as their country still exists and Russia did not murder all of them. That is why the worst people in the world (see for example the Kim family in North Korea) choose to back Russia.

You will have to go to the original article because “chart” is combination of png and hyper text markup language.
https://web.archive.org/web/20230824145303/https://www.economist.com/g
raphic-detail/2023/08/23/russians-have-emigrated-in-huge-numbers-since-the-war-in-ukraine

The png looks like this, but I can’t cut-and-paste into firefly fans dot net all the html stuff that brings the “chart” to life.


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
TOO BAD YOUR GRAPH DOESN'T INCLUDE 2022. Because that was the start of the SMO.

Kinda makes the chart pointless, doesn't it?
I get the feeling you missed the point. Imagine this scenario: Ukraine has a list of the 922,000 most productive, smartest Russians and killed them all. That would be a loss for Russia almost as devastating as 922,000 dead Russian soldiers. Russia did have that loss, but fortunately for the Russians on the list, they moved on to better lives elsewhere than Russia.

Re: Russia, an analysis and policy network, has examined various estimates and available data from countries that have accepted large numbers of Russian émigrés. They found that between 817,000 and 922,000 people have left Russia since February 2022. The largest recipient countries were Kazakhstan and Serbia, each with 150,000 emigrants. But Russians have moved all over the world, including between 30,000 and 40,000 who went to America, according to the estimates.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 26, 2023 7:18 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
"See chart?"
It's missing the year that they're purportedly talking about.

But if you want to compare emigration, country to country, Ukraine has lost at least 5 million to other countries, including about 1.5 million to Russia.

SECIND: When this war is all over, Russians will brag that they killed/wounded/displaced millions of Ukrainians and destroyed trillions of dollars of Ukrainian property,
No, they won't.
Quote:
SECOND: which all adds up in the Russian mind that Russia is the winner.
Russia will have achieved its goals when Ukraine is constitutnally neutral, de-Nazified, and demiltarized. Those are Russia's security goals. You don't read very well, do you?

Quote:
SECOND: In Ukraine, they will see victory as their country still exists and Russia did not murder all of them.
I think the survivors will be grateful to be alive.


Quote:
SECOND: I get the feeling you missed the point. Imagine this scenario: Ukraine has a list of the 922,000
So you say. I never take anything you post as close to the truth

Quote:
SECOND: most productive, smartest Russians


Oh, baloney! They're a bunch of self-entitled snivelling narcissists, and Russia is better off w/o them. If we got rid of ours, WE'D be better off. But then we'd have next to nobody left.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, August 26, 2023 7:38 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
"See chart?"
It's missing the year that they're purportedly talking about.

But if you want to compare emigration, country to country, Ukraine has lost at least 5 million to other countries, including about 1.5 million to Russia.

SECIND: When this war is all over, Russians will brag that they killed/wounded/displaced millions of Ukrainians and destroyed trillions of dollars of Ukrainian property,
No, they won't.
Quote:
SECOND: which all adds up in the Russian mind that Russia is the winner.
Russia will have achieved its goals when Ukraine is constitutnally neutral, de-Nazified, and demiltarized. Those are Russia's security goals. You don't read very well, do you?

Quote:
SECOND: In Ukraine, they will see victory as their country still exists and Russia did not murder all of them.
I think the survivors will be grateful to be alive.


Quote:
SECOND: I get the feeling you missed the point. Imagine this scenario: Ukraine has a list of the 922,000
So you say. I never take anything you post as close to the truth

Quote:
SECOND: most productive, smartest Russians


Oh, baloney! They're a bunch of self-entitled snivelling narcissists, and Russia is better off w/o them. If we got rid of ours, WE'D be better off. But then we'd have next to nobody left.
Now I am sure that you are the cause of all your problems. I've always been sure that Russians are the cause of their problems, not NATO, the US, the UK, or the EU. Nor Ukraine. Signym, you and Russians are crazy and your lives, which have so far been poorly lived, won't achieve grace and poise by the end.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, August 26, 2023 8:10 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Is that all you got, SECOND?


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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