new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China by 1KIKI

... stay crunchy...

cnn had some graphs this morning that showed near future predictions for 3 areas based on if things continue as they are: Lousiana, NY, and Vermont. The graphs showed available beds and expected bed needs through the first 2 weeks of May. There were sharp spikes on each chart that exceeded the beds available - no surprise. What stood out to me though was not the beds or spikes, but what came after the spikes: the first week of May the numbers were way, way down to almost zero. I don't know if they were accurate or if because that wasn't part of the message they just drew it in like that.

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Thursday, April 2, 2020 2:37 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-w
hite-house-letter/index.html

Experts tell White House coronavirus can spread through talking or even just breathing

(CNN)A prestigious scientific panel told the White House Wednesday night that research shows coronavirus can be spread not just by sneezes or coughs, but also just by talking, or possibly even just breathing.

"While the current [coronavirus] specific research is limited, the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing," according to the letter, written by Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of a committee with the National Academy of Sciences.

Fineberg told CNN that he will wear start wearing a mask (ie cowboy bandana or balaclava) when he goes to the grocery store.

Fineberg, chair of the NAS' Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, said his letter was sent Wednesday evening in response to a query from Kelvin Droegemeier with the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House.

"This letter responds to your question concerning the possibility that [coronavirus] could be spread by conversation, in addition to sneeze/cough-induced droplets," the letter states. "Currently available research supports the possibility that [coronavirus] could be spread via bioaerosols generated directly by patients' exhalation," it continues.

Well, ahem! - kind of OBVIOUSLY. The Chinese patient on the Diamond Princess who spread SARS-COV-2 to at least 60 people didn't cough or sneeze on all of them. And the virus didn't then spread through the ship because everyone was coughing and sneezing on everyone else. (I wonder if 'superspreaders' are what they are by virtue of the fact that their mechanics produce far more aerosols than most people's.)

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Thursday, April 2, 2020 2:51 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/cats-dogs-ferrets-coronaviru
s-wellness/index.html
Cats may get coronavirus, but experts say it's nothing to worry about

summary: Cats and ferrets can get SARS-COV-2, and cats can spread it to each other but don't appear to get sick. Dogs, pigs, chickens, and ducks seem to be inhospitable. This is similar to results from the original SARS-COV.

"Out of an abundance of caution," the AVMA suggests anyone ill with COVID-19 symptoms limit contact at this time, "until more information is known about the virus."
"Have another member of your household take care of walking, feeding, and playing with your pet," the AVMA states. "If you have a service animal or you must care for your pet, then wear a facemask; don't share food, kiss, or hug them; and wash your hands before and after any contact with them."

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Thursday, April 2, 2020 4:11 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

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Thursday, April 2, 2020 4:31 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

That's a terrific website!

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Thursday, April 2, 2020 5:40 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

I got sent this. It makes the point that accurate numbers of infected, numbers of cases, and numbers of deaths due to SARS-COV-2 are extremely difficult to come by. I agree completely.

But I want to point out that IN THE US, 'the' flu numbers (which is a combination of 5 tracked and an unknown numbers of untracked influenza /viruses+other-cases-of-flu-like-symptoms) are even more obscure. The reason I mention this is because people erroneously compare SARS-COV-2 numbers to 'the' flu numbers, thinking that 'the' flu numbers are anything but statistical modeling. 'The' flu numbers aren't hard data, and there's a multiple +/-10,000 range for them.

And here's why -

When people come in to a place (that participates in the CDC influenza surveillance program) with flu-like symptoms, they're tested for 5 known circulating flu strains. But if they have a virus for which there's no test, they won't be counted in the survey. What this test does is try to track which of the known flu strains predominates. And it tries to link severity of illness with each strain. That data goes into generating vaccines for the next countries down the line. (IIRC the US gets its flu data from Australia, which leads the US in flu season and gives the US enough time to select what look like problematic strains and to manufacture vaccines.)

It may also generate a very rough idea of the presence of flu IN SYMPTOMATIC PEOPLE. But those people are probably worse off than the general symptomatic population, or they wouldn't be going to the doctor, or for the un- and under-insured, county facilities.

Nowhere does it try to do a random population survey to see what percent of people are infected, a number that would go into calculating what the article calls "infection fatality rate" or IFR.

When it comes to flu deaths, only pediatric deaths are reportable to the CDC. No other flu deaths are reportable. And that leads the CDC to rely on statistical models, along with (really patchy) surveys of death certificates that report something like 'pneumonia'. They have to estimate normal deaths, estimate non-viral-pneumonia deaths, and then calculate viral-pneumonia excess deaths from that. That number I think would be be called a 'number of fatalities' (not a case-fatality rate).

And then they report it out for the entire year, as deaths due to influenza generically (not as deaths due to 'the' flu, or due to any one strain of flu specifically). Annual reporting helps wash out the lag time between infection and death, because the number people who die now are related statistically to number of people who were infected a month before. An annual report smooths out that discrepancy.

WAY back when I opined that the only way people are going to try to unscramble the actual impact of SARS-COV-2 is to do an 'excess deaths' population calculation, a point the article also makes.

On to the article:

Quote:

China Did Not Deceive Us - Counting Death During An Epidemic Is Really Difficult

The anti-China campaign, which the Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger is running, presented its first of April joke. It leaked to Bloomberg that a secret U.S. Intelligence Report claims that China concealed the real numbers of its Covid-19 cases:

China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.
...
While China eventually imposed a strict lockdown beyond those of less autocratic nations, there has been considerable skepticism of China’s reported numbers, both outside and within the country. The Chinese government has repeatedly revised its methodology for counting cases, for weeks excluding people without symptoms entirely, and only on Tuesday added more than 1,500 asymptomatic cases to its total.
...
Stacks of thousands of urns outside funeral homes in Hubei province have driven public doubt in Beijing’s reporting.
...

China did not conceal its number of Covid-19 cases. Nor did it hold back any information.

Reporting numbers during an outbreak of a new disease is actually very difficult.

When does one start to count? China only knew that it had a new virus epidemic in early January. By then those who died during the month before were already cremated. How could it count them?

Does one include co-morbids or not in the count? What about casualties of a car accident that also test positive for Covid-19 when they die? What about those who died with Covid-19 symptoms but could not be tested for lack of test kits? Are the tests really working reliable? At one point China included all pneumonia cases into the Covid-19 case count even after they tested negative for Covid-19. The Chinese epidemiologists thought that their test had been wrong and only later found out that that was not the case.

What about asymptomatic cases that test positive. Are these false positives or do these people really have the virus? One can only know that by testing them a month later for antibodies. If they developed antibody cells against the virus they must have had it. That may well be the reason why China only now added the 1.500 asymptomatic cases to its total count.

The most important number during an outbreak is the one that lets one plan for resources and model for countermeasures. That number is the Case Fatality Rate.

Quote:

But that is the wrong number if one asks how likely one is to die of the disease:

...
You may have heard a term being used: the “case fatality rate”, or CFR. That is the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases. When journalists talk about the “death rate”, that’s often what they are referring to. If a country has 10,000 confirmed cases and 100 deaths, then the CFR in that country is (100/10,000), or 1%.

That is not what we are looking for, and it is probably not even very close to what we are looking for.

Instead what we want is the “infection fatality rate”, or IFR. That is the number of deaths divided by the number of people who actually have the disease. The number of people who have tested positive for the disease is probably only a fraction of the total number who had it, because only a fraction of the population has actually been tested.

Obviously, the IFR is much harder to determine accurately. The only people getting tested will be the people who are most ill, so your IFR is probably much lower than your CFR, because your denominator — the number you’re dividing by — is probably much bigger.

So if your country has tested absolutely everyone and found all cases of the disease, then your IFR is the same as your CFR, or 1%. But if it has only found 10% of the people with the disease, then your 10,000 confirmed cases are just the tip of a 100,000-person iceberg. With those 100 deaths, your IFR would be (100/100,000) or 0.1%.
...

China, and everyone who followed its data, knew that the number of cases were different from the number of infections. But we did not know by how much. It was also clear that China was not counting all Covid-19 death. Italy shows how that problem arises:

...
As hospitals become overcrowded, patients are being asked to stay at home until they display the most serious symptoms. Many will die in their houses or nursing homes and may not even be counted as Covid-19 cases unless they’re tested post-mortem.

Last week, two researchers from northern Italy made this point forcefully when looking at Nembro, a small town near Bergamo that has been very severely hit by the outbreak. Writing in Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera they found there had been 158 deaths in the town in 2020 so far, as opposed to 35 on average in the previous five years. They noted that Nembro had only counted 31 deaths from Covid-19, which looks like an underestimate.

In other towns nearby, including Bergamo itself, the trend seemed identical. The researchers made the point that the only reliable indicator in the end will be “excess deaths” — namely, how many more people have died in total compared to a “normal” year.
...

Death per month in Bergamo over the last ten years*
*The data refer to deaths until March 26th

Quote:

The UK produces two different numbers. The Office for National Statistics says that it counts more Covid-19 death than the official GOV.UK site by the Department of Health and Social Care:

...
• We include all deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, even if only suspected: the GOV.UK figures are only those deaths where the patient had a positive test result
• We include deaths that happened anywhere in England and Wales, for example some might be in care homes: the GOV.UK figures are only those that happened in hospital.
...

The definition who to count can change over time and not only in China:

...
[C]ountries may have good reasons to change the way they collect data as circumstances change, but it apparently happens often enough that the World Health Organisation feels that they have to ask countries to notify them when they do it. Famously, China did so earlier in the epidemic, but others do too: in complying with the WHO’s request, Australia has noted that it has changed its definition of a Covid-19 “case” (and therefore a Covid-19 “death”) at least 12 times since 23 January.
...

As for the number of urns delivered to funeral homes in Hubei after the quarantine was lifted one has also to consider the number of regular death. Hubei province has some sixty million inhabitants. The regular mortality rate in China is 726 per 100.000 inhabitants per year. The regular expected number of death from January 1 to March 31 in Hubei province without the epidemic was 108.900. In Wuhan, which has 14 million inhabitants, the expected number was 25.410. Photos that show the delivery of a few thousands of urns to large funeral homes in Wuhan are thereby not a sign for a higher Covid-19 death rate. To claim such is propaganda nonsense.

There is no reason to criticize China for publishing incomplete and a times confusing numbers. That is normal during any epidemic and the U.S. will certainly do likewise. The real problem with the various numbers flowing around lies elsewhere.

People do try to make predictions about how many will get infected and die from the virus. These models are needed to prepare ones resources. But prediction is extremely difficult to do as the various models react very sensitive to the input data. A model that works in country A may give the wrong results when it used for country B. Cities and towns are different. Local circumstances can make huge differences. With the real infection numbers and the real death rate unknown during an outbreak we can only hope that our epidemiologists, who are trained to make and interpret such models, get it right.

To claim that China deceived the U.S. and the world about its numbers or that China tried to make it look as if the epidemic was not as serious as it is makes no sense at all.

China took extreme and drastic measures at high economic costs to prevent a larger outbreak. It did not do that to deceive anyone but because it saw the seriousness of the problem. It acted in the global interest and to defeat the virus.

China gave the world time to prepare for the pandemic. Unfortunately that time was not used well. One reason that the U.S. will now experience a very large outbreak is that it is not willing to follow the Chinese example. If one declares that gun shops and shooting ranges are critical businesses that must stay open during a lockdown one is not serious about fighting the epidemic.

To blame China for that is simply nonsensical.

The real number of casualties the SARS-CoV-19 outbreak will cause will only be known when it is over and when we compare the new death statistics to those of previous years. One thing is assured. The "excess death" numbers will be lower in those countries that did use the time China gave them and prepared for what was coming at them.

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Thursday, April 2, 2020 5:52 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

One exceptionally easy to read and lucid post about "How likely are you to die of coronavirus?"

https://unherd.com/2020/04/how-likely-are-you-to-die-of-coronavirus/

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Thursday, April 2, 2020 6:46 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Shopping today in our (sanitized, re-used) N95 respirators. I consolidate errands into one day, which saves the hassle and risk of putting on/taking off masks; we just don them and leave them on until we get home, then we sanitize in the entryway and toss our masks into the "dirty" box for them to be sanitized again.

I often go to two stores because one often has what the other doesn't. Also to the drive-thru pharmacy, the drive thru post office, and the gas station bc needed a fillup. I thought to try Instacart, but they can't deliver for 5 days and I need groceries THIS week, not next! So at store #1 about 1/3 people were wearing some sort of mask or another, at store #2 about half. Some were wearing bandanas, most were wearing procedure masks, a few were wearing paper N95 resirators (like us) and one guy ... I swear to god ... was wearing a full-on army surplus gas mask. I noticed our cashier had a mask, and when I commented she said that she got it from a customer and that management finally let them wear them. Why in god's name would you NOT allow mask-wearing? Even the post office, which has a notorious stick up its ass, was letting people wear masks from home two weeks ago.

But the one thing I saw which was a little frustrating were a few couples where the wife was wearing a mask, but husband was just too cool to wear one. DOOD, if you get sick your wife gets sick! Seriously, get a clue.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

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Thursday, April 2, 2020 6:55 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

The question I have about baking a mask is - does the heat not deteriorate the elastic? For myself, I only go out once a week and condense my errands into one big round trip, but I wasn't sure about heating the elastic, so I just let the mask attenuate with time.

I've been meaning to, but I just looked up what the 3M N95 masks are made from. I was curious if they were cellulose-based (paper) or something else. What they say is "The respirator incorporates 3M’s proprietary technology with advanced electrostatically charged microfiber filter media designed for ease of breathing."

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Friday, April 3, 2020 12:59 PM

... stay crunchy...

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Shopping today in our (sanitized, re-used) N95 respirators. I consolidate errands into one day, which saves the hassle and risk of putting on/taking off masks; we just don them and leave them on until we get home, then we sanitize in the entryway and toss our masks into the "dirty" box for them to be sanitized again.

I often go to two stores because one often has what the other doesn't. Also to the drive-thru pharmacy, the drive thru post office, and the gas station bc needed a fillup. I thought to try Instacart, but they can't deliver for 5 days and I need groceries THIS week, not next! So at store #1 about 1/3 people were wearing some sort of mask or another, at store #2 about half. Some were wearing bandanas, most were wearing procedure masks, a few were wearing paper N95 resirators (like us) and one guy ... I swear to god ... was wearing a full-on army surplus gas mask. I noticed our cashier had a mask, and when I commented she said that she got it from a customer and that management finally let them wear them. Why in god's name would you NOT allow mask-wearing? Even the post office, which has a notorious stick up its ass, was letting people wear masks from home two weeks ago.

So #STAYTHEFUCKHOME doesn't apply to you - #NOSURPRISE #MEFIRSTEFFEVERYONEELSE

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
But the one thing I saw which was a little frustrating were a few couples where the wife was wearing a mask, but husband was just too cool to wear one. DOOD, if you get sick your wife gets sick! Seriously, get a clue.

How do you know they had more than one mask? Maybe the man was, "no, you wear it." If one gets sick it doesn't mean the other does. You're such a bmdf.

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Friday, April 3, 2020 1:47 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Apparently YOU don't know what a stay-at-home order is!

For the record - and this is the second time I'm letting you know - here in California it means FOR ALL BUT ESSENTIAL NEEDS. Like yanno, picking up prescriptions and grocery shopping, or maintaining critical services and infrastructure.

https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/

What can I do? What’s open?

Essential services will remain open, such as:

Gas stations
Pharmacies
Food: Grocery stores, farmers markets, food banks, convenience stores, take-out and delivery restaurants
Banks
Laundromats/laundry services
Essential state and local government functions will also remain open, including law enforcement and offices that provide government programs and services.

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Friday, April 3, 2020 2:29 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Well this is interesting - that '100,000 - 240,000 deaths' number so often cited in the news looks like it was some WH wild-ass-guess. It may not be good. But then, it may be great! Nobody knows.

Disease Forecasters doubt White House’s 240,000 coronavirus deaths estimate
https://www.livetradingnews.com/experts-trumps-advisers-doubt-white-ho
uses-240000-coronavirus-deaths-estimate-171512.html

The experts said they don’t challenge the numbers’ validity but said they don’t know how the White House arrived at them.

At a task force meeting this week, according to two officials with direct knowledge of it, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told others that there are too many variables at play in the pandemic to make the models reliable: “I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models.”

Robert Redfield, director of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the vice president’s office have similarly voiced doubts about the projections’ accuracy, the three officials said.

Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist whose models were cited by the White House, said his own work on the pandemic doesn’t go far enough into the future to make predictions akin to the White House fatality forecast.

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Friday, April 3, 2020 3:00 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

One positive thing about 'stay at home' here in SoCal is that I'm getting almost no robocalls.

Though I don't quite understand the mechanics of it all. How does one even FIND a job at a call center? AFAIK it's not legal ... so ... And then, how does a call center get shut down? AFAIK it's not like they're legal employers, so what do they care about having people come in? And AFAIK it's not like the people working there are rolling in dough and can just say, take this job and shove it ... And AFAIK it's not like the people who're renting out the spaces to the robocallers' operations are monitoring whether people are coming or going, or not. It's a puzzle.

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Friday, April 3, 2020 4:07 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

How the top 10 rankings have changed over time. When I started posting the data, I chose a 5,000 case cutoff.

Last updated: April 03, 2020, 17:42 GMT
USA 265,506
Italy 119,827
Spain 117,710
Germany 89,838
China 81,620
France 59,105
Iran 53,183
UK 38,168
Turkey 20,921 ^
Switzerland 19,606

Last updated: April 02, 2020, 17:57 GMT
USA 235,281
Italy 115,242
Spain 110,238
Germany 84,264 ^
China 81,589
France 59,105
Iran 50,468
UK 33,718
Switzerland 18,827
Turkey 18,135

Last updated: April 01, 2020, 20:32 GMT
USA 211,143
Italy 110,574
Spain 102,179
China 81,554
Germany 77,779
France 56,989
Iran 47,593
UK 29,474
Switzerland 17,768
Turkey 15,679 ^

Last updated: March 30, 2020, 18:39 GMT
USA 156,249
Italy 101,739
Spain 85,195 ^
China 81,470
Germany 63,929
France 44,550
Iran 41,495
UK 22,141
Switzerland 15,760
Belgium 11,899 ^

As of March 29, 2020 at 18:24 GMT
USA 135,627
Italy 97,689
China 81,439
Spain 78,799
Germany 60,659
France 40,174 ^
Iran 38,309
UK 19,522
Switzerland 14,829
Netherlands 10,866

As of March 28, 2020 at NN:NN GMT
USA 116,057
Italy 92,472
China 81,394
Spain 72,248
Germany 56,202
Iran 35,408 ^
France 32,964
UK 17,089
Switzerland 13,377
Netherlands 9,762 ^

As of March 27, 2020 at NN:NN GMT
USA 98,080 ^^
Italy 86,498 ^
China 81,340
Spain 64,059
Germany 50,178
France 32,964 ^
Iran 32,332
UK 14,543 ^
Switzerland 12,928
S. Korea 9,332

As of March 26, 2020 at NN:NN GMT
China 81,285
Italy 80,589
USA 79,082
Spain 56,197
Germany 43,646
Iran 29,406
France 29,155
Switzerland 11,712
UK 11,658 ^
S. Korea 9,241

As of March 25, 2020 at 17:21 GMT
China 81,218
Italy 74,386
USA 60,653
Spain 47,610
Germany 35,740
Iran 27,017
France 22,304
Switzerland 10,537 ^
S. Korea 9,137
UK 8,227

As of March 23, 2020 at 19:05 GMT
China 81,093
Italy 63,927
USA 41,569
Spain 33,089
Germany 29,056
Iran 23,049
France 19,856
S. Korea 8,961
Switzerland 8,547
UK 6,898

Sunday, March 22, 2020 4:44 PM
China 81,054
Italy 59,138
USA 32,356 ^
Spain 28,603
Germany 24,852
Iran 21,638
France 16,018
S. Korea 8,897
Switzerland 7,543

Saturday, March 21, 2020 1:20 PM
China 81,008
Italy 53,578
Spain 25,374
USA 22,132 ^^
Germany 21,854
Iran 20,610
France 12,612
S. Korea 8,799
Switzerland 6,371

Friday, March 20, 2020 2:16 PM
China 80,967
Italy 47,021
Spain 20,412 ^
Germany 19,711 ^
Iran 19,644
USA 16,545
France 10,995
S. Korea 8,652 ^
Switzerland 5,369 ^

Thursday, March 19, 2020 1:13 PM
China 80,928
Italy 35,713
Iran 18,407
Spain 17,395
Germany 14,544
USA 11,329
France 9,134

Italy under tight lockdown March 11, 2020

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Friday, April 3, 2020 6:11 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

WE'RE #1!

WE CRACKED THE 1000 PER DAY DEATHS!!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

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Friday, April 3, 2020 6:19 PM

Surely, we can do better than that.

We're not even close to the 156,164 deaths per day from other things.

Even less impressive when you realize that most of those 1,000 are just taken prematurely from other categories.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, April 3, 2020 6:41 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Your logic is faulty, as is your data.

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Friday, April 3, 2020 6:59 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Surely, we can do better than that.

We're not even close to the 156,164 deaths per day from other things.

Even less impressive when you realize that most of those 1,000 are just taken prematurely from other categories.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Holy fuck, SIX, you have such a giant short-circuit in your brain I'd swear to god you were drinking again!

That 156,164 per day ... you're talking about the USA only right???

Oh, you mean the WHOLE WORLD?

Well. How about getting some comparable figure FOR THE USA ONLY?

I know, I know ... too much logic for you! The answer is that IN THE USA approximately 7,500 people die each day. https://www.indexmundi.com/blog/index.php/2018/03/05/how-many-people-d
ie-a-day-in-the-us/ At 1,000 deaths per day from coronavirus, that's starting to make up significant fraction of "everything else" which includes heart attacks, cancer, auto accidents and homicide.

In fact, at 1,000 deaths per day, Covid-19 is the third leading cause IN THE USA, right behind heart attacks and cancer.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 1:54 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Update (1740ET): As expected, President Trump said Friday that the CDC has reversed its position on face masks

FINALLY!!!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 2:23 AM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

I'm so glad that, literally months ago, I saw this coming down the pike and got hand san and masks. That plus the 3 N95 ones I already had to alleviate the chronic wheeziness from allergies.

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 3:58 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Surely, we can do better than that.

We're not even close to the 156,164 deaths per day from other things.

Even less impressive when you realize that most of those 1,000 are just taken prematurely from other categories.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
Holy fuck, SIX, you have such a giant short-circuit in your brain I'd swear to god you were drinking again!

That 156,164 per day ... you're talking about the USA only right???

Oh, you mean the WHOLE WORLD?

Well. How about getting some comparable figure FOR THE USA ONLY?

I know, I know ... too much logic for you! The answer is that IN THE USA approximately 7,500 people die each day. https://www.indexmundi.com/blog/index.php/2018/03/05/how-many-people-d
ie-a-day-in-the-us/ At 1,000 deaths per day from coronavirus, that's starting to make up significant fraction of "everything else" which includes heart attacks, cancer, auto accidents and homicide.

In fact, at 1,000 deaths per day, Covid-19 is the third leading cause IN THE USA, right behind heart attacks and cancer.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

They're simply taking the cause of death from something else that would have been on the death certificate this year in most cases.

Sorry, but I'm going to remain logical on this issue.

It can't keep doubling every 7 days even if everybody gets it, because most people are going to recover from it.

Tragic, sure... but hardly the end of the world.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 8:24 AM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

lol

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 10:26 AM

... stay crunchy...

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:

One positive thing about 'stay at home' here in SoCal is that I'm getting almost no robocalls.

Though I don't quite understand the mechanics of it all. How does one even FIND a job at a call center? AFAIK it's not legal ... so ... And then, how does a call center get shut down? AFAIK it's not like they're legal employers, so what do they care about having people come in? And AFAIK it's not like the people working there are rolling in dough and can just say, take this job and shove it ... And AFAIK it's not like the people who're renting out the spaces to the robocallers' operations are monitoring whether people are coming or going, or not. It's a puzzle.

Most of them are software driven, from gathering numbers to making the calls - no or very few humans needed. It's incredibly cost effective and almost runs itself. If you think you are getting a "live" voice it's probably a recording making a pitch, and if you stay on long enough to see if it's a real person your number will get logged as a live number. Some of these just want to see if someone picks up or if it goes to a vm system. "Person answers" goes to the top.

Me: I let every call go to vm. No message = no call.

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 10:38 AM

... stay crunchy...

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Apparently YOU don't know what a stay-at-home order is!

For the record - and this is the second time I'm letting you know...

You can post stupid sh*t 100 times and it will still be stupid.

Apparently neither of you know what you even post.

SIGNUTS: "I often go to two stores because one often has what the other doesn't."

How is that #STAYTHEFUCKHOME? How is that essential? Shopping for groceries should have been done by now. Getting fresh produce is not esssential. How many times do you HAVE TO go to the pharmacy? I haven't shopped at a grocery store for over 3 weeks and it will be another 3 before I pick anything up, and even then it will be contactless pick-up in the trunk. 6 weeks is #STAYTHEFUCKHOME

You are they types that think nothing will happen to you, "milk's running low, better hit the store," like it's any other day, and you will go and infect 3 others, who will then infect 9 others and so on... or you will pick it up and infect your family. How essential are those bananas now?

SIGNUTS: "... and the gas station bc needed a fillup. " Because she's been running around so much and not #STAYINGTHEFUCKHOME that she's almost out of gas.

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
- here in California it means FOR ALL BUT ESSENTIAL NEEDS. Like yanno, picking up prescriptions and grocery shopping, or maintaining critical services and infrastructure.

"Shopping" - a girls just gotta shop.

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:

https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/

What can I do? What’s open?

Essential services will remain open, such as:

Gas stations
Pharmacies
Food: Grocery stores, farmers markets, food banks, convenience stores, take-out and delivery restaurants
Banks
Laundromats/laundry services
Essential state and local government functions will also remain open, including law enforcement and offices that provide government programs and services.

And she's even yappin' with a store clerk because she's not smart enough to know that that's another way to transmit the virus. They've even had to put up plexiglass to protect check out clerks from dumba shoppers who want to chat about the weather. F*ucksake.

No one can force you to be smart, that's for damn sure.

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 11:22 AM

Geez.

lol

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 12:04 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

HEY GSTRING

Quote:

KIKI: Apparently YOU don't know what a stay-at-home order is!
For the record - and this is the second time I'm letting you know...

GSTRING: You can post information 100 times and I will still be stupid. (FIFY)
Apparently neither of you know what you even post.

SIGNUTS: "I often go to two stores because one often has what the other doesn't."
How is that #STAYTHEFUCKHOME? How is that essential?

One has meat, the other has run out.

Quote:
Shopping for groceries should have been done by now. Getting fresh produce is not esssential.

I don't have enuf frig space for more than a week's-worth of food, and my smallish freezer (the one that I already said was too small) only has enough room for two or three weeks of meat and cheese, and no room left over for frozen vegies. I know my storage limits. When we unpack groceries, the frig and freezer are full. By the next week, they're pretty empty. So I shop, once per week. You're LYING as usual, I see,

Quote:
How many times do you HAVE TO go to the pharmacy?

Once or twice a month. I've been trying to consolidate the family's refills to the same day, which meant I had to ask the doctors (all six of them) to write one-month quantities instead of three-month, which has led to all manner of confusion on their part (like writing a one month Rx with four refills instead of twelve). But some of those refills are just out-of-sync, and since the insurance companies don't let you move the refill date by more than five days for either a one-month or three-month prescription, syncing them all up is a slow process. At this point, I have ALMOST all of them captured. But at this point the pharmacy does drive thru anyway.

Quote:
I haven't shopped at a grocery store for over 3 weeks and it will be another 3 before I pick anything up, and even then it will be contactless pick-up in the trunk. 6 weeks is #STAYTHEFUCKHOME

I have no idea what kind of storage space you have but it must be pretty big, because there's no way in hell I could store six weeks of food. IF food supplies were cut off, we might be able to scrounge enough food over two-three weeks, and that would mean emptying the frig, freezer, and cupboards. Clearly, I'm not prepared for an earthquake.

AFA "contactless" ... I looked at Instacart. They're backlogged five days. I can shop for five days from now.

But it's not "contactless". YOU might not be exposed, but the person who is doing your shopping for you IS. Did you know that Instacart and Amazon employees went on strike over lack of sick pay and lack of protection? There is a high chance that the person who put your groceries together went shopping while sick. You might want to sanitize the items on the way in.

Quote:
You are they types that think nothing will happen to you, "milk's running low, better hit the store," like it's any other day, and you will go and infect 3 others, who will then infect 9 others and so on... or you will pick it up and infect your family. How essential are those bananas now?

As usual, you're lying about me. I only shop once per week, and I ONLY go with a mask.

Quote:
SIGNUTS: "... and the gas station bc needed a fillup. " Because she's been running around so much and not #STAYINGTHEFUCKHOME that she's almost out of gas.

ANOTHER LIE. We have two vehicles. I filled one up a week or two ago, it's still full. The other one was 3/4 empty when shelter-in-place came down, so I just filled it up this week.

Quote:
"Shopping" - a girls just gotta shop.

ANOTHER lie.

Jeez, GSTRING, someone must be PAYING you to lie. You say you work from home? What work is that? Being a paid troll? How much money do you make doing that?

Quote:
And she's even yappin' with a store clerk because she's not smart enough to know that that's another way to transmit the virus. They've even had to put up plexiglass to protect check out clerks from dumba shoppers who want to chat about the weather. F*ucksake.

SHE was wearing a mask. I was wearing a mask. We were separated by plexiglass, for fuck's sake. At the time, I also passed along info on how to sanitize a mask, since it was the only one she had.

If only YOU would be as useful and bring info to the board, instead of being a (paid?) troll and lying with every post.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 12:44 PM

Yup.

I don't see eye to eye much with Sigs these days, but I think the Captain is just trying to rile her up because he's bored.

Kiki and Sigs are about the two most paranoid people I know right now. I wouldn't worry about them getting the illness or spreading it.

But if the Captain isn't trolling right now and really believes what he is saying, I stand corrected and he is the most paranoid person I know right now. By like, a lot.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 12:49 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
lol

Let's see how much you're lol'in when the suicide and murder rates start spiking countrywide.

Because they will.

Soon.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/covid-19-is-likely-t
o-lead-to-an-increase-in-suicides/

Quote:
Of all the literary masterpieces describing humanity’s experience of disease pandemics, none describes suicide more vividly than Ovid's Metamorphoses, when in response to the psychosocial distress of the plague the citizens “hanged themselves, to kill the fears of death by death’s own hand.” Just like a pandemic became a reality for the first time in more than a century, in a destructive "life imitating art imitating life" way, news of suicides linked to the COVID-19 crisis have swept the globe and sadly show no signs of abating.

K. Balakrishna, a 50-year-old Indian father-of-three, may be the first suicide victim linked to the coronavirus epidemic. Panic is suspected of precipitating his death. Historically, disease pandemics have been associated with grave psychological consequences. This should not come as a surprise. In its simple definition “pandemic” describes the spread of a disease across a large region, but words such as “pandemic,” “plague” and now “coronavirus” are not experienced in a simple way; they come riddled with fear, anxiety, grief and chaos. Balakrishna kept watching coronavirus-related videos and became convinced he had the virus and would infect his family: he was a victim of panic contagion. Panic can demoralize us, it can paralyze us with paranoia and fear, and these emotions in turn lead to hopelessness and desperation.

Keep watching the news right now and poisoning your brain with it. They have never had a more captive audience than they do right now in April of 2020.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 2:30 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:

One positive thing about 'stay at home' here in SoCal is that I'm getting almost no robocalls.

Though I don't quite understand the mechanics of it all. How does one even FIND a job at a call center? AFAIK it's not legal ... so ... And then, how does a call center get shut down? AFAIK it's not like they're legal employers, so what do they care about having people come in? And AFAIK it's not like the people working there are rolling in dough and can just say, take this job and shove it ... And AFAIK it's not like the people who're renting out the spaces to the robocallers' operations are monitoring whether people are coming or going, or not. It's a puzzle.

Quote:
Most of them are software driven, from gathering numbers to making the calls - no or very few humans needed. It's incredibly cost effective and almost runs itself. If you think you are getting a "live" voice it's probably a recording making a pitch, and if you stay on long enough to see if it's a real person your number will get logged as a live number. Some of these just want to see if someone picks up or if it goes to a vm system. "Person answers" goes to the top.

Me: I let every call go to vm. No message = no call.

I do too. And I've done that for years. But it hasn't keept me from getting 45-50 (silent) recordings a week. But these last 3 weeks it's been down to ~5 a week.

So, yeah. Stay-at-home = no calls.

I think the robocall business doesn't quite work like how you think it does, since your predictions have obviously not come to pass.

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 2:48 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Apparently YOU don't know what a stay-at-home order is!

For the record - and this is the second time I'm letting you know...

Quote:

You can post stupid sh*t 100 times and it will still be stupid.

Apparently neither of you know what you even post.

SIGNUTS: "I often go to two stores because one often has what the other doesn't."

How is that #STAYTHEFUCKHOME? How is that essential? Shopping for groceries should have been done by now.

Hunh? You go shopping like - what - once in a lifetime? Once is all you'll ever need to do?

Quote:
Getting fresh produce is not essential. How many times do you HAVE TO go to the pharmacy? I haven't shopped at a grocery store for over 3 weeks and it will be another 3 before I pick anything up, and even then it will be contactless pick-up in the trunk. 6 weeks is #STAYTHEFUCKHOME

Well OBVIOUSLY you have capacious storage and you only shop for one (unless your 'wife' Tim does it, which allows you to claim you only shop every 3 weeks?).

Quote:
You are they types that think nothing will happen to you, "milk's running low, better hit the store," like it's any other day, and you will go and infect 3 others, who will then infect 9 others and so on... or you will pick it up and infect your family. How essential are those bananas now?

Well, if the milk is running low ... as are the bread, the meat, the onions and so on ... then YES! it's time to go shopping.

BTW, here's a logical impossibility for you. Here is California, we're told to have a month's worth of food, medicine, and other necessary supplies ON HAND in case we get quarantined.

But if you stock up and then WORK YOUR WAY DOWN YOUR STOCKS - how much will you have on hand if you don't go shopping like usual? And if you go to the store and find purchases are limited to one or two items max, HOW CAN YOU BUILD YOUR STOCKS BACK UP?

Being stocked up with a month's worth of groceries, scrips, toiletries etc means you get stocked up AND STAY STOCKED UP. Which means - you go shopping, like usual.

So are you getting all your 'smarts' from your 'smartphone'?

Quote:
Signy: "... and the gas station bc needed a fillup. " Because she's been running around so much and not #STAYINGTHEFUCKHOME that she's almost out of gas.

Troll, much?

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
- here in California it means FOR ALL BUT ESSENTIAL NEEDS. Like yanno, picking up prescriptions and grocery shopping, or maintaining critical services and infrastructure.

Quote:
"Shopping" - a girls just gotta shop.

Yep. If I want to eat, I need to shop.

How about you?

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:

https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/

What can I do? What’s open?

Essential services will remain open, such as:

Gas stations
Pharmacies
Food: Grocery stores, farmers markets, food banks, convenience stores, take-out and delivery restaurants
Banks
Laundromats/laundry services
Essential state and local government functions will also remain open, including law enforcement and offices that provide government programs and services.

Quote:
And she's even yappin' with a store clerk because she's not smart enough to know that that's another way to transmit the virus. They've even had to put up plexiglass to protect check out clerks from dumba shoppers who want to chat about the weather. F*ucksake.

DOOOOOOD. WEARING AN N95 RESPIRATOR! **USED** ONES BTW THAT I'VE HAD FOR OVER A YEAR DUE TO ALLERGIES AND ASTHMA! And that I'm not about to donate because ... **USED**.

Quote:
No one can force you to be smart, that's for damn sure.

Yeah well, we've all seen how 'smart' you are with your 'smartphone', that's for damn sure.

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 2:57 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Yup.
I don't see eye to eye much with Sigs these days,

We disagree on three topics. Otherwise, pretty much in agree. Don't make more of this current disgreement than it is.

Quote:
but I think the Captain is just trying to rile her up because he's bored.
Kiki and Sigs are about the two most paranoid people I know right now. I wouldn't worry about them getting the illness or spreading it.

But if the Captain isn't trolling right now and really believes what he is saying, I stand corrected and he is the most paranoid person I know right now. By like, a lot.
Oh, what GSTRING is doing isn't out of paranoia OR boredom. He's deliberately trying to paint a picture of KIKI and me which is not only despicable it's defamatory (i.e. untrue).

So, GSTRING has posted, more than a couple hundred times, that I'm a "Russian troll" and a hypocrite. But he's worried that KIKI and I may have gained some sort of credibilty about Covid-19 and is doing his best to torpedo that impression, which is why he tossed out the RUSSIA!RUSSIA! bait recently (no takers) and has shifted to the "Covid-19 hypocrite" bait.

Since he's been busy for the past four years trying to paint an untrue picture of me, let me paint MY picture of GSTRING:

He defends social media like it was his bread and butter. IT PROBABLY IS.
OTOH he has almost NO technical skill AFA programming or system management. SIX, YOU know a hundred times more about computers than he does.
He's posted several times about "how" media and advert works. Most of it is wrong, but he obviously feels that's his area of expertise.
He owns a house with his partner, so he's doing pretty well, but he demonstrates no knowledge about how to run a small business, so I speculate he either works for a larger firm or someone handles the business end for him.
OTOH he does seem pretty skilled at lying.

So, I think GSTRING is one of those parasites who is paid to manipulate public opinion via social media. Maybe he manages a bevy of "influencers", maybe he's in advertising, maybe he works for a spook agency. Any way I look at it, I would call it "propaganda".

I believe he is as paranoid as he portrays himself. Obviously, he feels he's in a vulnerable group. Is it because of age? Diabetes? Compromised immune system? I could speculate further, but I won't. The last person I met here who was as snaky as GSTRING was GEEZER, and I'm pretty sure he was CIA in Vietnam.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 3:04 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: More self-contradictory stuff.

fify

Yanno, if I had the time and the interest (and it would be boring as hell) I'd go through your ever-expanding list of inane and self-contradictory 'reasons' on your wheel-of-fortune you keep spinning about how everyone else is wrong and only Jack is right.

I might even debunk them one by one with facts, and point out individually and explicitly how those 'reasons' are self-contradictory within the group.

But I won't because I honestly have far better things to do with my time.

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 4:03 PM

Pics or it didn't happen.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 4:05 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

links for all your specious claims - or they didn't happen

BTW - you've provided not one in all this time. So all your posts?

They didn't happen.

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 5:03 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
OTOH he does seem pretty skilled at lying.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

I don't find him particularly skilled since all of his lies are easily debunked with facts. He IS persistent, though!

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 5:06 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

For anyone interested in the data I've been tracking, instead of reposting my posts I've simply been updating them, starting here:

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&mid=1
097694#1097694

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 5:12 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Looking at this link which Signy supplied - though California has dropped (back) down to fourth place in total number of cases by state according to the wolrdOmeter website, according to Signy's link, looking at a log scale - it is NOT 'bending the curve'.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

So while California has a lower R0 (in other words, exponential value), it's a very STEADY exponential value which hasn't gone down, even with social distancing in place for a number of weeks, and its generally very dispersed population.

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 5:35 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
links for all your specious claims - or they didn't happen

BTW - you've provided not one in all this time. So all your posts?

They didn't happen.

Which is entirely different than you sourcing a bunch of news outlets that you didn't agree with at all 2 months ago.

Amnesia much?

lol

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 5:36 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

links - or it didn't happen

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 5:51 PM

THG

The N95 respirator can perform optimally for eight hours of intermittent or nonstop use. Regular replacement is necessary. If you find it necessary to use one because of allergies you're fucked.

T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 6:30 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

I have a whole raft of allergies. Of the pages of things I got tested for, I was NOT allergic to only 2 (one was a bush I never heard of, one was a tree I never heard of). But various molds; grasses, trees and shrubs; foods; dogs, cats, feathers, horses, mice (and other critters); you name it ... yep! to 'em all.

As I said, one of my allergies is to cats. But I fostered 3 abandoned 3 week-old kittens found starving and huddled under a bush in a field about 6 years ago. And I later adopted one because he had so many health and neurological problems. Despite everything, he's a HUGE and healthy guy today! (easily 4 1/2' long stretched out).

I was wearing the masks recently to change the litter box, after the flu I had in January, because it made my airways very sensitive. This is nothing new for me. Allergies and recurrent asthma are a lifetime thing ... that nevertheless I've managed to grow really old with!

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 6:48 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
The N95 respirator can perform optimally for eight hours of intermittent or nonstop use. Regular replacement is necessary. If you find it necessary to use one because of allergies you're fucked.

T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.

Not true. The CDC allows up to five re-uses (which they consider an adequate safety margin) WITH PATIENTS. https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/hcwcontrols/recommendedguidanceextuse
.html
For use while shopping, when the risk of contamination is low, I would imagine the number of re-uses could be quite high.

I think there are a few things that could make the respirator non-reusable for everyday life:

So much moisture builds up in the mask, because of exhalation, that the mask becomes soggy. This might cause the fibers to stick together and the material to collapse, compromising the filtration function. The mask user would be aware of this happening.

For masks with an an exhalation valve, the valve material becomes hard, cracked, or bent and doesn't close fully. I learned to test the valve by sealing the (sanitized) valve with my (clean) lips on the outside of the mask, and blowing in. No air should be forced thru.

The elastic straps become stretched out.

The edge of the mask becomes softened and no longer seals properly.

Most of these are mechanical defects which are testable/observable.

Once you sanitize your mask (175F for 30 minutes or a 9-day cool-off period) you should be able to re-use until the mask has reached its mechanical limits.

*****

I DID look at the Chinese version, the KN95. While the filtering material meets the same specs as the 3M N95 version, the construction is very different. Overall, the CHINESE masks look softer; rather than being molded they're shaped with a vertical seam down the front, and it doesn't look like it seals well around the edges. I was going to try buying a few to see how they fit.

The group that I supervised occasionally worked with toxic samples and materials that engineering (lab hoods, air exchange) didn't accommodate, and each person had to be fit-tested with half-mask respirators, so I know all about that. The more resistance to flow thru the filtration medium (cartridge, paper) the more important the seal, otherwise the air just sneaks in around the edges. Very good filtration with poor edge seal is somewhat self-defeating ... but still better than nothing.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 7:14 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

You know, there are EXTREMELY good, ultra-small (submicron) high flow particulate membrane filters (as opposed to depth filters) called anopore filters. Pore sizes are 0.2, 0.1, and 0.02 microns. Since SARS-COV-2 is about 0.125-0.090 microns (125 to 90 nanometres) the smallest pore size could easily even filter out individual virus particles.

They're made of extraordinarily thin aluminum oxide sheets, so they're really brittle and shatter if you try and bend them. But if you put them in a protective housing (which could be a seat-and-closure one-way valve arrangement to make them replaceable), they could be fitted into a cleanable, reusable mask with exhalation valve.

Now obviously this would protect the wearer from particulates, but not the environment from the wearer. So a cheap replaceable filter over the exhalation valve could provide two-way protection.

https://www.2spi.com/category/anopore-membranes/

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 8:52 PM

I heard they've developed a self-testing kit that is similar to a pregnancy test that will allow you to test not only whether or not you have COVID currently, but if you already had it and recovered.

Not sure if that's true at all because we're in the era of Post-Truth, but if it is, imagine the implications of that. Both good, and bad.

"You're free to go back to work, as long as you clear the results with us and send us a sample of your DNA along with it.", among others.

The good news is that we'd finally have legitimate death ratios instead of all the fear mongering that's been going on for months now.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, April 4, 2020 9:09 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

That would be interesting if true

links please

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

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Sunday, April 5, 2020 5:26 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

So since the SARS Cov-2 virus docks onto human cells via the ACE-2 receptor (typically found in the small vessels of the lungs but also the kidneys, which explains the kidney damage that is ALSO found after Covid-19) I wondered whether the ACE receptor blockers (ARBs) would interfere with docking and blunt the infection. But it turns out that ARBs actually cause an overexpression of ACE-2 recpetors (by a factor of 3-5X) which may explain why people with high blood pressure or heart problems far so poorly: Not because of the blood pressure or heart failure but because of the medications they're taking. THAT might explain the high death rate in Italy.

I guess I wasn't the first person to think about this, there is an active discussion about this in the medical community. https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/ace-inhibitors-arbs-and-covi
d-19-what-gps-need-to

On the other hand, a comment buzzed past my ear while I was doing other things that soking prevented the kind of cytokine storm that quickly sent patients CTD (circling the drain). Since it was kind of random, I don't recall where I heard it, but what I found when looking it up is that according to the only studies that could be found on the topic, smoing actually RAISES the risk of severe complications and deaths. http://www.tobaccoinduceddiseases.org/COVID-19-and-smoking-A-systemati
c-review-of-the-evidence,119324,0,2.html So much for THAT idea (although I will continue to try and find the source of that comment, and any supporting info.)

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

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Sunday, April 5, 2020 6:55 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
That would be interesting if true

links please

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

I don't have any. It's something my old man mentioned yesterday. He doesn't troll the internet so I'm assuming it was some Legacy Media news source he heard it from. Just thought it was interesting and wondered if anybody heard about it. I'll see if I can find anything.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, April 5, 2020 7:04 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

I don't have any. It's something my old man mentioned yesterday. He doesn't troll the internet so I'm assuming it was some Legacy Media news source he heard it from. Just thought it was interesting and wondered if anybody heard about it. I'll see if I can find anything.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Self-testing at home to find out whether somebody has had Covid-19 is an efficient way to find out if they are safe to return to work, a senior health official has said.

Prof Yvonne Doyle, the medical director of Public Health England, told the health select committee that finger-prick home tests would be available very soon. “We expect that to come within a couple of weeks, but I wouldn’t want to promise on that,” she said.

More at www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/covid-19-self-test-could-allow-r
eturn-to-work-says-public-health-england

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, April 5, 2020 11:13 AM