new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China by 1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/wuhan-institute-virology-and-chinese-
army-submit-patent-gilead-anti-ebola-drug-fight

Wuhan Institute Of Virology And Chinese Army Submit Patent For Gilead Anti-Ebola Drug To Fight Coronavirus
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-patent/china-lab-seeks
-patent-on-use-of-gileads-coronavirus-treatment-idUSKBN1ZZ0RL

“Gilead is working closely with global health authorities to respond to the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak through the appropriate experimental use of our investigational compound remdesivir. While there are no antiviral data for remdesivir that show activity against 2019-nCoV at this time, available data in other coronaviruses give us hope,” the company stated.

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Friday, February 7, 2020 2:36 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/scientists-warn-you-can-contrac
t-the-coronavirus-more-than-once_02062020

Scientists Warn: You Can Contract The Coronavirus More Than Once

Expert: Recovered coronavirus patients are still prone to reinfection

This virus also has a high likelihood of mutation, which means it could get even more deadly before it’s over. (comment: This is a generic statement, since it's an RNA virus, and RNA viruses are especially prone to mutation.)

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Friday, February 7, 2020 5:12 PM

3 Americans stuck on Cruise ship, have coronavirus.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/3-americans-test-positive-coronavi
rus-183312804.html

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Friday, February 7, 2020 7:26 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

So, I went back to find out the story of the Princess cruise ship under quarantine off of Japan, after coronavirus cases started to zoom out of sight. In a way, this is another test of the infectivity of the virus, since we can't depend on numbers coming out of China.

https://www.wionews.com/world/japan-to-quarantine-cruise-ship-on-which
-coronavirus-patient-sailed-278445
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3048795/coronavirus-j
apan-quarantines-cruise-ship-called-hong-kong
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/diamond-princess-cruise-ship-
in-japan-quarantined-after-passenger-diagnosed-with-coronavirus/ar-BBZCVN1
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-61-passengers-test-positive-q
uarantined-cruise-ship-japan/

Going through various stories, as best I can tell the timeline goes like this: An 80 year old man flew into Tokyo on January 17, 2020, and 2 days later, January 19, he developed a cough (but no fever). He boarded the cruise ship Monday January 20, 2020. After a short cruise, he departed the cruise ship partway through its scheduled itinerary at Hong Kong Saturday, January 25, 2020. And he was diagnosed with coronavirus shortly after seeing a doctor Thursday January 30, 2020 because of a fever he developed that day. (In other words, he went a week and a half between having the cough and being infectious, and developing a fever.)

This story was first reported late Monday Feb 3, 2020 after the ship was quarantined earlier in the day. On Feb 4, 10 cases of coronavirus were detect in the passengers tested, and later 10 more were detected on the same day (as far as I can tell from news reports). Roughly a day ago Feb 6, and additional 41 tested positive.

Personally, I think this rapid increase of positive people has to do more with the slowness and incompleteness of the testing, though rapid spread could also be playing some part.

So, patient zero in this case was spreading coronavirus without a fever for 4-5 days (depending on time of embarking Jan 20 and debarking Jan 25). And either he had a heck of a lot of 'close contact' with 61 other passengers, OR the virus is spread more easily than officials state, and/or newly infected passengers are spreading coronavirus in a very short time.

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Friday, February 7, 2020 7:37 PM

I hope the CDC and any of the government powers of the world are watching this and taking note.

lol

If something comes along that is going to decimate us, there either isn't shit we can do about it, or we are woefully under-prepared for the challenge.

But hey, maybe this is the big one.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, February 8, 2020 2:50 PM

First American death, never escaped Wuhan. Death toll rises over 700.

https://www.newser.com/story/286692/a-coronavirus-first-american-repor
ted-dead.html

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Saturday, February 8, 2020 2:53 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-patients.html

The upshot of the NYTimes article , which was based on 2 JAMA papers is that
1) not only does coronavirus spread like the flu, it has superspreaders, like SARS
2) one paper reports a death rate of 4.6%

Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessK
ey=f61bd430-07d8-4b86-a749-bec05bfffb65&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=020720

Epidemiologic and Clinical Characteristics of Novel Coronavirus Infections Involving 13 Patients Outside Wuhan, China

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761043?guestAccessK
ey=4304fae0-947f-4a45-852c-ffb9240ff8be&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jama&utm_content=olf&utm_term=020720

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Saturday, February 8, 2020 3:00 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
So, I went back to find out the story of the Princess cruise ship under quarantine off of Japan, after coronavirus cases started to zoom out of sight. In a way, this is another test of the infectivity of the virus, since we can't depend on numbers coming out of China.

https://www.wionews.com/world/japan-to-quarantine-cruise-ship-on-which
-coronavirus-patient-sailed-278445
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3048795/coronavirus-j
apan-quarantines-cruise-ship-called-hong-kong
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/diamond-princess-cruise-ship-
in-japan-quarantined-after-passenger-diagnosed-with-coronavirus/ar-BBZCVN1
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-61-passengers-test-positive-q
uarantined-cruise-ship-japan/

Going through various stories, as best I can tell the timeline goes like this: An 80 year old man flew into Tokyo on January 17, 2020, and 2 days later, January 19, he developed a cough (but no fever). He boarded the cruise ship Monday January 20, 2020. After a short cruise, he departed the cruise ship partway through its scheduled itinerary at Hong Kong Saturday, January 25, 2020. And he was diagnosed with coronavirus shortly after seeing a doctor Thursday January 30, 2020 because of a fever he developed that day. (In other words, he went a week and a half between having the cough and being infectious, and developing a fever.)

This story was first reported late Monday Feb 3, 2020 after the ship was quarantined earlier in the day. On Feb 4, 10 cases of coronavirus were detect in the passengers tested, and later 10 more were detected on the same day (as far as I can tell from news reports). Roughly a day ago Feb 6, and additional 41 tested positive.

Personally, I think this rapid increase of positive people has to do more with the slowness and incompleteness of the testing, though rapid spread could also be playing some part.

So, patient zero in this case was spreading coronavirus without a fever for 4-5 days (depending on time of embarking Jan 20 and debarking Jan 25). And either he had a heck of a lot of 'close contact' with 61 other passengers, OR the virus is spread more easily than officials state, and/or newly infected passengers are spreading coronavirus in a very short time.

Excellent test environment model.

Are you keeping track of the various models? Obviously, some will be faster moving, some slower. But having a range of the accurately-known cases can be enlightning.

Do you give credence to the report of 16% death rate?

Or have you seen or confirmed credible figures for rate of spread (?contagion rate?) versus rate of fatality after contracting the case?

For the cruise ship, I'm not sure if you found these details: When testing/screening, were all passengers screened? Meaning, were they screened once, then after some days, screened again positive? Or were the screenings just progressive, not the whole manifest screened each time, just however many test kits they had available?

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Saturday, February 8, 2020 3:23 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Excellent test environment model.

Are you keeping track of the various models? Obviously, some will be faster moving, some slower. But having a range of the accurately-known cases can be enlightening.

Do you give credence to the report of 16% death rate?

Or have you seen or confirmed credible figures for rate of spread (?contagion rate?) versus rate of fatality after contracting the case?

For the cruise ship, I'm not sure if you found these details: When testing/screening, were all passengers screened? Meaning, were they screened once, then after some days, screened again positive? Or were the screenings just progressive, not the whole manifest screened each time, just however many test kits they had available?

Sadly, many details aren't in the news. Regarding screening - there are all of 400 test kits prepared by the CDC here in the US and distributed to various agencies across the states for more rapid screening v sending them to the CDC. It's known that China is short of test kits. So I don't imagine Japan is in any condition to test all 4000+ people (passengers and crew) even once on the one ship that was quarantined (there are 2 that I can think of offhand, btw). I imagine they only tested 'for cause'. I didn't find any reports of how many were tested v how many were positive.

The death rate is extremely difficult to determine, I think. Unless you test everybody, you don't know how many people are sick. And then you have to accurately determine the cause of death. So I don't give too much credence to any death rate at this point.

As for the various models, they exist under various conditions. So for example there is the cruise ship model which I think is a good representation of free spread, and I think the most salient model for a sick person moving though a dense population. Then there's the JAMA-reported model of spread in a Chinese hospital. Then there's the US-based model which is spread after identification (for cause) and quarantine. So ... it depends.

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 12:10 AM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Dr. Tom Frieden
Former Director CDC

New study an eye-opener on how coronavirus is spreading and how little we know

(CNN) A study published Friday in the medical journal JAMA found that 41% of the first 138 patients diagnosed at one hospital in Wuhan, China, were presumed to be infected in that hospital.

This is big news. In plain English, it means that nearly half of the initial infections in this hospital appear to have been spread within the hospital itself. What's more, most spread doesn't appear to have been the result of a so-called "super-spreader event," in which a single patient transmits infection to many other people.

This would be a concern, but not nearly as much as what appears to have happened: Many health care workers and many patients got infected in many parts of the hospital. What's more, since there's a broad spectrum of infection and only patients who were sick were tested, it's quite likely that there was even more transmission in the hospital.

The virus appears to be quite infectious, health care workers are at especially high risk, and we urgently need more information about just how infectious the virus is. The virus might well be impossible to contain -- just as the common cold and influenza can't be stopped, but the health and societal impacts can be blunted.

What more do we need to know?

We are learning more, but unfortunately, the answer is, a lot.

We still don't know the basics about who has been tested, what proportion are positive, how this is changing over time, and what the positivity rates are by location, week of testing and patient age. This is basic information.

The answers to these questions will help determine whether the virus is already circulating widely (i.e., has become endemic and can't be stopped), what proportion of all with infection have serious illness, and whether the epidemic is peaking or not.

Where is the novel coronavirus going next?

Only time will tell. The next few days and weeks will determine:
§ If sustained transmission begins in other countries, which unfortunately seems likely.
§ If it does, whether it can be contained, which unfortunately seems unlikely.
§ How severe the illness is among those who are infected, which we still don't know.

Until we know this critical information, we won't be able to assess how bad this novel coronavirus is going to get and which control measures have the best chance of slowing spread.

see the entire letter at the link: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/08/health/coronavirus-hospital-infecti
ons-frieden/index.html

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 11:50 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Dr. Tom Frieden
Former Director CDC

New study an eye-opener on how coronavirus is spreading and how little we know

(CNN) A study published Friday in the medical journal JAMA found that 41% of the first 138 patients diagnosed at one hospital in Wuhan, China, were presumed to be infected in that hospital.

This is big news. In plain English, it means that nearly half of the initial infections in this hospital appear to have been spread within the hospital itself. What's more, most spread doesn't appear to have been the result of a so-called "super-spreader event," in which a single patient transmits infection to many other people.

This would be a concern, but not nearly as much as what appears to have happened: Many health care workers and many patients got infected in many parts of the hospital. What's more, since there's a broad spectrum of infection and only patients who were sick were tested, it's quite likely that there was even more transmission in the hospital.

The virus appears to be quite infectious...

Yeah, no shit. That may have to do with those four (or three?) inserts that have to do with host recognition and docking.

Been saying for a while that the idea of building hospitals where everyone ... the infected, the suspect infected, the ordinarily sick, the worried-well, and their relatives all mingle together, is completely bass-akwards.

IMHO people should STAY HOME. They should be tested AT HOME. Food should be delivered to them. Yanno, maybe put something like crime-scene tape *that can't be easily removed across the door, or paint some sort of symbol and date on their door so they and their neighbors know that status (possibly infected, keep out/don't leave; infected keep out/don't leave; cleared OK to leave)

I understand needing to xfer people to hospital for care, but they should be tested BEFORE they go to hospital, and the infected should go to the special hospsital.

Here's another case of bass-akwards quarantine

Quote:
Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantine extended after Japan finds 3 more cases of coronavirus on board

Three more passengers stranded aboard a quarantined cruise ship off the coast of Japan have tested positive for coronavirus, the country’s Health Ministry said on Saturday, bringing the total number of confirmed cases on the vessel to 64.

While the quarantine period for the ship was initially set for two weeks, a health official has clarified that it would be extended each time a new case was confirmed on the vessel, currently stuck at the port of Yokohama with around 3,700 people on board.

https://www.rt.com/newsline/480380-japan-cruise-ship-coronavirus/

Yep, just jam everybody ... the sick, the healthy ... together. THAT'LL help!!! [/snark] Unless they confine everybody to quarters, serve meals to their cabins and disinfect everyone and everything that moves from cabin-to-cabin, this sounds like a perfect way to spread the virus ... and the only way to escape the hellhole is to get sick! Is that backwards, or what?

I know those cabins are pretty small ... cases of cabin fever ... but how about removing people from the ship and quarantining them individually in some place more comfortable, and releasing them once they'e tested negative? (BTW, do we have any idea what the incubation time is?)

China, so far as I know, has still not shared a live virus sample with Russia. nor have they shared their animal testing data with anyone which might demonstrate which intermediate hosts (if any) can harbor or spread the virus.

But the data is trending to show that the virus is exceptionally infectious and its death rate in somewhere in the 2-2.5% range (far above the usual 0.08% for a regular flu) and - quite honestly- I'm a little pissed off at the stupidity of the Chinese government in managing this outbreak, which has spread to 30 countries so far.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 1:21 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Apparently the cruise ship tourists ARE being confined to cabin, and food is being served in-cabin. No dining-room buffets and entertainment, no siree! There are fears that the virus is being spread by the ship's ventilation system or by the food, or the servers.

Too bad for them, but this will be a great test case of how the virus is spread, once they tease out how the sick became infected.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 1:28 PM

Cruise ships, huh?

The Coronavirus was designed after a Bill Burr comedy special on Netflix.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 1:56 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Wow, that's some sick (but well thought-out) humor!!! I guess it takes a comedian to go where no one has dared to go before!

All I can say is... it's a good thing I don't like the idea of taking a cruise!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 2:37 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Excellent test environment model.

Are you keeping track of the various models? Obviously, some will be faster moving, some slower. But having a range of the accurately-known cases can be enlightening.

Do you give credence to the report of 16% death rate?

Or have you seen or confirmed credible figures for rate of spread (?contagion rate?) versus rate of fatality after contracting the case?

For the cruise ship, I'm not sure if you found these details: When testing/screening, were all passengers screened? Meaning, were they screened once, then after some days, screened again positive? Or were the screenings just progressive, not the whole manifest screened each time, just however many test kits they had available?

Sadly, many details aren't in the news. Regarding screening - there are all of 400 test kits prepared by the CDC here in the US and distributed to various agencies across the states for more rapid screening v sending them to the CDC. It's known that China is short of test kits. So I don't imagine Japan is in any condition to test all 4000+ people (passengers and crew) even once on the one ship that was quarantined (there are 2 that I can think of offhand, btw). I imagine they only tested 'for cause'. I didn't find any reports of how many were tested v how many were positive.

The death rate is extremely difficult to determine, I think. Unless you test everybody, you don't know how many people are sick. And then you have to accurately determine the cause of death. So I don't give too much credence to any death rate at this point.

As for the various models, they exist under various conditions. So for example there is the cruise ship model which I think is a good representation of free spread, and I think the most salient model for a sick person moving though a dense population. Then there's the JAMA-reported model of spread in a Chinese hospital. Then there's the US-based model which is spread after identification (for cause) and quarantine. So ... it depends.

Are they taking the sick people off the boat? Or are they keeping them on the boat so they can infect as many as possible?

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 2:41 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

They're taking sick people off the boat.

Here's my beef with that: Apparently, it is possible to be contagious even before symptoms show up. If you wait until people LOOK sick before you test them, you're too late.

Keep everyone isolated. (They're doing that already.) TEST EVERYONE. It's not like they have to test a million people! Take off everyone who tests positive and quarantine them individually onshore.

Wait five days and TEST EVERYONE AGAIN. Take off everyone who tests positive as before. Wait five more days and TEST EVERYONE AGAIN. If you have two shipboard tests in a row where everyone tests negative then let them all go. They're just going to have to take their chances onshore like the rest of us poor sods

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 4:01 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

The reason why I'm so heated up about hospitals (and doctors offices) as a source of contagion is because it happened to us.

You know when you take your sick kid to doctors and there you are in the waiting room with a bunch of sniveling, coughing, vomiting, feverish children? I used to think rather sourly what a petri dish!

We never got sick then. But we got a bad cold (not the latest flu, just a bad cold) maybe nine months ago and we were left wondering where we got it from. Since I always wind up with a post URI wheeze, it's kind of a big deal for me.

Well, i coincidentally had a doctor's appointment a few weeks later and was chatting with the receptionist about our family bad cold, and she said "Oh yes we all had it here. I had it really bad"

Oh, really???

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 4:27 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
They're taking sick people off the boat.

Here's my beef with that: Apparently, it is possible to be contagious even before symptoms show up. If you wait until people LOOK sick before you test them, you're too late.

Keep everyone isolated. (They're doing that already.) TEST EVERYONE. It's not like they have to test a million people! Take off everyone who tests positive and quarantine them individually onshore.

Wait five days and TEST EVERYONE AGAIN. Take off everyone who tests positive as before. Wait five more days and TEST EVERYONE AGAIN. If you have two shipboard tests in a row where everyone tests negative then let them all go. They're just going to have to take their chances onshore like the rest of us poor sods

It sounds like they don't even have enough test kits to screen a fraction of the souls aboard the ship. Testing the people who have symptoms is the prioritization they are using.

If they had a supply of test kits, then your complaint would have merit.

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 4:35 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

I just want to say that I haven't opined as much as I might. But I thought an unstoppable global contagion was a possibility since I concluded early in the thread that the spread was 'explosive', before officials concluded it was transmissible between people. But we won't know what happens TO US, until we know.

So, aside from health-care facilities being a nexus of infection, imo the biggest problem is unidentified carriers - like the 80 year old man who boarded the cruise ship where 70 have now tested positive.

Again, imo, unidentified carriers could make hash of the US 'quarantine for cause' approach, and I see no guarantee it'll be effective enough to keep coronavirus from spreading through the general population. But I see no effort to address what might be unidentified carriers. So either we're all part of some grand epidemiological calculation and they've got a pretty good idea of what they need to do, or they're putting on a good show when our fate is already in the cards.

As I also posted earlier, neighborhood doctors will know in a week or two if the virus is 'out there', and the neighborhood will know in a week or two after that, not because of any announcement, but because they'll be seeing a lot of sick people around.

And as far as I can tell, there is NO plan B. (But if there is, they're not telling us.) What if, for example, a sick person happens to show up in - oh, let's say Compton? That indicates the virus is already 'out there'. Then what? Try and trace and test everyone that person contacted? There simply aren't enough test kits around. Quarantine the entire neighborhood? Yanno, wall it off with no one in or out? Good luck, you're on your own, and hope and pray you've isolated it in time?

BTW, I think Signy's ideas have a lot of merit. I'd also like to suggest mandatory mask-wearing, and alcohol sanitizer everywhere. That could slow the unidentified carriers from spreading it around.

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 6:05 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
It sounds like they don't even have enough test kits to screen a fraction of the souls aboard the ship. Testing the people who have symptoms is the prioritization they are using.

If they had a supply of test kits, then your complaint would have merit.

One thing they COULD do is remove people to a better, land-based facility, to be quarantined - kind of like how the US is quarantining people from China in military facilities.

The ship is no better than a cauldron of close quarters and shared air, with crew potentially shuttling the virus from room to room. There are more effective and humane ways of dealing with it.

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 6:51 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-mysterious-origin-of-the-wuhan-coron
avirus-and-the-call-for-chinese-authorities-to-release-animal-sample-testing-data_3231298.html

The Mysterious Origin of the Wuhan Coronavirus
China continues to refuse to release animal sampling testing data

This article has many cogent points to make as well as interesting details - for example, that China is testing for coronavirus DNA and not just antibodies (possibly by PCR). I think it would be good to read in its entirety, because a simple summary doesn't do it justice.

That said, the author makes the argument that China needs to release its data about animal testing for 2019-nCoV. The reason is that if there's a common intermediate host (and so far the other deadly coronaviruses SARS and MERS have intermediate hosts) - like rats - it makes no sense to quarantine people while the rats roam free and unaddressed. It also examines the potential role of the BSL4 lab near Wuhan.

I'd also say it makes sense for the US to start testing on its own.

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 7:57 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

China has the social control to be able to manage this virus, the USA does not. But China seems to be stuck in a hospital-based model which is counterproductive.

If the USA were to get hit with an epidemic, I would suggest the following:

Self quarantine. Everyone who can stay at home, stay at home. When you go out, go out with a mask and remove your mask .... and then sanitize your hands ... when you get back home. That means working in a mask too.

Shut down all schools and all unnecessary workplaces. Utilities, fire/police/hospital, gocery stores (and, for those underserved neighborhoods, restaurants and fast-food places) post office and banks stay open.

Develop teams that can test people at home. If necessary give them nearlyindestructable metal bracelets or temporary back-of-hand inks on which can be recorded their status, and don't take it off until they'e been cleared. DON'T make them come to a doctor's office or hospital room to be tested!

Set up special hospital wards for treating postive patients.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 8:30 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

KIKI: Great article, thanks for the link! You're right, it would be hard to summarize.

From ZH:

Quote:
And, as has been the case for the past weeks, the number of cases remains within spitting distance of 3,000, rising from yesterday's 2,652 to 2,973, however this number is largely irrelevant: as Dr. Scott Gottlieb the increase in the number of confirmed cases is likely a function of China's "testing reporting capacity", which is roughly 3,000 per day . This means that every suspected case eventually becomes a confirmed cases, and only logistics limit how many new cases are actually being added any given day. As such, any change in the number of new cases is not only irrelevant but misleading for all those who actually trade on this as an indicator of whether the Coronavirus has peaked.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/were-totally-dark-japan-not-doi
ng-enough-contain-outbreak-diamond-princess-passengers

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 9:37 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Self quarantine. Everyone who can stay at home, stay at home.

I think a lot of people will do that, what I call 'hunkering down'. But the vast, vast majority of people can't afford to stay home from work, being 2 paychecks away from economic disaster. So they'll go to work, no matter what. I presume that if it escapes into the general population, it'll be city-by-city, or region by region. The government may be able to order non-essential companies to shut on a limited geographic basis, and do the Andrew Yang $1000/ mo for everybody on that same basis, as well as shut down non-essential travel.

Quote:
When you go out, go out with a mask and remove your mask .... and then sanitize your hands ... when you get back home. That means working in a mask too.

Well, wearing a disposable medical mask is only minimally protective when it comes to catching the virus, imo because it prevents hand-to-mouth and hand-to-nose activities, and may remind people to not do hand-to-eye activities. An N95 mask might be actually protective from breathing in most of the virus - it would certainly filter out aerosols! - and it may or may not filter out individual virus particles, depending on their size (which I haven't looked up). But the caveat is that it has to be well-fitted and well sealed to work at all. So - no facial hair! And it's best if you have an average nose, chin, and face-length, otherwise you'll have gaps. A reusable N95 mask with disposable cartridges is able to be fit-tested, but a generic disposable N95 mask from a hardware store isn't. And neither will protect your eyes. There will be a certain fraction of people who won't benefit from wearing that kind of mask. And going for an N95 mask is expensive enough, bothersome enough, and technical enough, that I can't see it being applied across the board. OTOH those disposable surgical masks, while not designed to keep people from getting the virus, are designed to keep people from giving it. If everyone! had to wear a mask in public, I think it could go a long way to keep asymptomatic, or nearly asymptomatic, and unsuspecting carriers from spreading it around.

Quote:
Shut down all schools and all unnecessary workplaces. Utilities, fire/police/hospital, grocery stores (and, for those underserved neighborhoods, restaurants and fast-food places) post office and banks stay open.

I agree!!

Quote:
Develop teams that can test people at home. If necessary give them nearly-indestructible metal bracelets or temporary back-of-hand inks on which can be recorded their status, and don't take it off until they've been cleared. DON'T make them come to a doctor's office or hospital room to be tested!

The big flaw in this is the development and production of test kits. I imagine something like a war-time effort where people are pressed into service (for pay) might work.

Quote:
Set up special hospital wards for treating positive patients.

As I see it, if the virus gets out into the general population, it'll require a war-time all-hands-on-deck response to keep it contained until a treatment is developed, or a vaccine is developed, or both. Half-measures like what they initially did in China won't work - as we've seen. Segregating people who test positive would be a good idea, if you could meaningfully keep up with it! When it comes to treatment, sadly, at present, there doesn't seem to be a one that'll consistently work to keep people alive. Looking at the one JAMA study, there were I think 18 people, who all went on to smooth, unremarkable recoveries. Then there was the other JAMA study of - I think roughly 160 people - with a 4.6% fatality rate. It seems like either you get better, or you don't.

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Sunday, February 9, 2020 11:46 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

So, having a science degree but no background in biology at all(!), what I got out of the article is that ... combing thru the bat virus antecedents (SARS, MERS) there were intermediate animals which allowed the virus to mutate and spread to people.

The closest bat virus found so far is too far away, sequence-wise, to be a direct ancestor of the wuhan virus (I just find it easier to type Wuhan than the current nomenclature), the latest "match" seems a little too conveniently-found.

Looking at bat virus function, all of the bat viruses studied so far need mutations in a certain area of the sequence to recognize and dock onto human ACE2 (whatever THAT is!) meaning that a direct bat-to-human transmission is unlikely.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Monday, February 10, 2020 12:05 AM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Oh, this is just from wiki. ACE 2 is what you'd expect - its one kind of angiotensin converting enzyme.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_2

Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2
Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 is an exopeptidase (wiki: an exopeptidase is any peptidase that catalyzes the cleavage of the terminal peptide bond; the process releases a single amino acid or dipeptide from the peptide chain. Depending on whether the amino acid is released from the amino or the carboxy terminal, an exopeptidase is further classified as an aminopeptidase or a carboxypeptidase, respectively.) that catalyses the conversion of angiotensin I to the nonapeptide (nine amino acids) angiotensin[1-9], or the conversion of angiotensin II to angiotensin 1-7. ACE2 has direct effects on cardiac function,? and is expressed predominantly in vascular endothelial cells of the heart and the kidneys. ACE2 receptors have been shown to be the entry point into human cells for some coronaviruses, including the SARS virus, and the Novel coronavirus.

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Monday, February 10, 2020 12:39 AM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

ARGH! I answered my own question ...

But here's some more information on where ACE(nzymes) are located (from wiki): It is located mainly in the capillaries of the lungs but can also be found in endothelial and kidney epithelial cells.

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Monday, February 10, 2020 5:04 AM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

DANG!

136 people on cruise ship test positive for virus

Obviously they weren't sufficiently timely in testing for and removing infected people, because this looks like secondary transmission to me. And maybe there are limits to the test, leaving infected people undetected even if they're infectious.

Death rates by some sources are put at 5% of those identified as infected.

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Monday, February 10, 2020 10:35 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Wow, that's some sick (but well thought-out) humor!!! I guess it takes a comedian to go where no one has dared to go before!

All I can say is... it's a good thing I don't like the idea of taking a cruise!

Yeah. Burr can get pretty dark sometimes.

I'm a big fan of his work. I love the style a lot of comedians use today where they're really up there just being story tellers instead of cracking dumb jokes. I keep meaning to listen to his podcast, but I always forget to do it.

I thought it was pretty funny when you find out that when he finally settled down it was a black woman he married. She was actually part of a lot of the stories he told in earlier shows he did, whether it was things like the massive and dangerous rescue dog she took in while he was out on the road, or the first time he felt like an adult when he didn't go to his family's house for holiday dinners and instead had his own party with her. I would think that most people were surprised that this 100% Irish dude that would spontaneously combust if he went on a cruise and says the things that he says married a black woman, especially since it's probably more surprising that he got married in the first place.

He never once mentioned his wife's race in a show until the latest comedy special, and I think the only reason that he did was for a funny story he told about them getting into an argument over an Elvis documentary.

The bit starts at 40:00

I found it on YT, but if you want to watch it I'd do it sooner than later. Somebody changed the audio and made some weird camera shots on it to get past the algorithm.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, February 10, 2020 2:09 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

From ZH

Futures Hug The Flatline As Traders Try To Make Sense Of Latest Coronavirus Updates

Is China restarting supply chains, as it vowed it would, or is it pretending to do so amid fears that pandemic is spreading out of control?

Dudes - OF COURSE the virus has never been under control! Or, as Ellie said in Jurassic Park "You never had control, that's the illusion!"

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Monday, February 10, 2020 4:15 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

1:35 pm: Gottlieb says screening and fist bumps over handshakes will help protect against coronavirus

Coronavirus is spreading in Hong Kong, Thailand, and Singapore. Community spread is suspected in other nations. Models suggest that for every person who traveled into the U.S. infected with coronavirus, and who was successfully diagnosed and quarantined, maybe three more arrived undetected. It was only toward the end of January that we started to even look for sick travelers. Singapore, where community spread seems to be taking route, has about as many travelers arriving from China as the U.S. does — around 3 million a year. It’s understandable that small outbreaks might become evident in that small and dense island nation of 5.7 million before they can be spotted in the U.S. But if one assumes that the virus was also imported into U.S. communities in low numbers in early January, and is now replicating, more cases could emerge. — Gottlieb

10:34 am: WHO officials say 15% of all patients get pneumonia

The World Health Organization’s Dr. Sylvia Briand told reporters the disease produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of the cases they’ve seen so far. About 15% of the people who have contracted the virus have ended up with pneumonia, with 3% to 5% of all patients needing intensive care. — Kopecki

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-coronavirus-spread-outside-of-ch
ina-is-at-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-says-who-chief-2020-02-10

‘The detection of a small number of cases may indicate more widespread transmission in other countries; in short we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg.’
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, World Health Organization

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Monday, February 10, 2020 4:20 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

I can really see that google has jinked its search engine (even on duckduckgo) because when I do a web search for coronavirus w/ duckduckgo I get page after page of officialdom links - mostly to the CDC.

So, searching with gibiru, I get far more actual news.

I'm glad to note we're seeing at least SOME mention of the pandemic potential of asymptomatic/ weakly symptomatic infectious people in the general population. But what took them so long?

BTW, in case anyone is wondering why I keep posting updates - I can tell you it's not out of fear, or even anxiety. Things related to medicine is an area I've been interested in, and following, for as long as I can remember (ever since I was well under 5, sitting on the floor with a nursing textbook on my lap, looking at the pictures). And as you may have noticed, I've been drawing conclusions, and making observations and predictions the whole time - and also testing them against subsequent news. And ...

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Monday, February 10, 2020 5:46 PM

IIRC, one day last week it was announced that the first case in America was released from the hospital, and still none of the other cases resulted in fatality.

Then the next day, it was announced the only known American with the case in Wuhan has died, never being allowed to escape.

Quite the contrast.

Regarding testing, has there been any word of a practice of taking samples which cannot be tested now, due to lack of kits, and then having them later to test retroactively and learn about how this virus works/spreads/presents in the population?

I'm assuming all tested samples are destroyed - such as this 80-yeaar-old who went to the hospital before boarding the cruise ship. I forget if he/she has died.

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Monday, February 10, 2020 5:55 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Yes, they also take iirc nose swabs and mouth(??) swabs for later testing, to help them develop a timeline of infection and potential infectious route. (BTW an entire Chinese family of 9 was infected by one family member after they all shared a hot-pot meal together, so saliva transmission might also be possible.) I imagine they could be doing these kinds of samples serially, even though I've seen nothing about that. I wouldn't be surprise if they also took serial blood samples to test for the presence of virus and titer (concentration) of antibodies over time. I believe they want to later compare test results to who's symptomatic, who's being held for itinerary reasons, who's positive, who's negative. I'm sorry that I can't address specifically what they're doing irl aside from the swabs, but I can imagine what they would be doing at a minimum by what I would be doing, if I was them.

In my experience, normal routine medical samples are disposed of after anywhere between 24 hours and a month. They're stored appropriately in either a biohazard frig or freezer in case there's a problem that needs to be resolved with re-analysis. But research samples are often stored in liquid nitrogen (historically in -80C /dry ice temperature/ freezers) and held for long periods of time.

But that's the US/ CDC.

ETA: What they're doing in Japan or China I couldn't say.

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Monday, February 10, 2020 8:09 PM

I would trust Japan to do the reasonable, sensible thing.

Not China. They've got 1.4 Billion people to whittle down.

I think I heard of one person dying ooutside China, in Phillipines.

Did I miss any other deaths outside China?

If I understand correctly, Japan does not have abundant housing or space for such quarantine zones or facilities. Cruise ship is likely their best option for holding 4,000 people.

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Monday, February 10, 2020 8:31 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

JSF, I do try to answer your questions and I believe in general your i-net connection is bunk (not just to fff), but I can't devote a whole lot of time to running down things you'd like to know or seem to want definitive confirmation/ refutation for. Sorry about that.

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Tuesday, February 11, 2020 10:49 AM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Coronavirus death toll tops 1,000 as U.S. confirms 13th case - Axios
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-latest-developments-8b8990c4-6762- 494a-8ee0-5091746bda9b.html
15 hours ago ... A person evacuated to San Diego from China was confirmed by the CDC Monday night to be the 13th novel coronavirus case in the U.S., as the death toll rose to ..

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-latest-developments-8b8990c4-6762-49
4a-8ee0-5091746bda9b.html
Under investigation: 37 U.S. states report 398 (cumulative total) patients under investigation, of whom 68 are pending and 318 were found negative, the CDC said Monday. The CDC has begun shipping to state and local health authorities diagnostic tests that provide results in four hours.

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Tuesday, February 11, 2020 11:04 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
IIRC, one day last week it was announced that the first case in America was released from the hospital, and still none of the other cases resulted in fatality.

Then the next day, it was announced the only known American with the case in Wuhan has died, never being allowed to escape.

Quite the contrast.

I'm wondering why in 2020 anybody would trust the media to tell us the truth about anything anymore.

Expect nothing more but further confusion on this issue, to the point of driving you to insanity if you allow it to. You've got not one, not two, but now dozens of countries and their various ideological governments, and their Legacy Media outlets spreading both information and disinformation at the same time. The two biggest proven liars, China and the United States, leading the pack.

At this point, all you can really do is hope that this was a huge nothing burger like most of these things end up being in retrospect.

The only thing we have learned in the last few weeks is that if there ever was a truly deadly outbreak, something on an extinction level event, that everybody getting paid the big bucks who is supposed to prevent that from ever happening is absolutely terrible at their jobs and probably aren't even competent enough to work along side me stocking shelves overnight.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, February 11, 2020 12:45 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

With a 2.5% fataltiy rate, this would not be an extinction-level event. It would be just the old and pulmonary-compromised people (like me) who would be sickled off the end of the population-curve.

Now, if this were Ebola (60-90+% fatality rate, and the last big scare) ... THAT would be a near-extinction-level event!

What an outbreak of NOCOV-19 across the world would do is disrupt economies immensely, as people "hunkered down" and tried to reverse-quarantine. Since most people don't have the resources (either food or money) to stay at home for anything more than a day or two ... doomed to failure.

Curiously, the Mormons would probably fare well. Apparently they have this "thing" about storing food at home and institutionally (in the Church) for emergencies.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Tuesday, February 11, 2020 8:54 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
JSF, I do try to answer your questions and I believe in general your i-net connection is bunk (not just to fff), but I can't devote a whole lot of time to running down things you'd like to know or seem to want definitive confirmation/ refutation for. Sorry about that.

Thanks for all you do.

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Tuesday, February 11, 2020 9:14 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

I appreciate your generous understanding!

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Tuesday, February 11, 2020 9:15 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-11-20-i
ntl-hnk/index.html

Quarantine ends for all 195 coronavirus evacuees at California Air Force base

All 195 coronavirus evacuees from Wuhan, China who were staying at March Air Reserve Base in California have completed their 14-day quarantine period, health officials announced in a news conference Tuesday.

There were no cases of coronavirus identified in the group, which arrived at the base in Riverside County on January 29. The 195 individuals completed their final health check Tuesday morning.

Health officials emphasized that they do not have the novel coronavirus and pose no health risk.

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Tuesday, February 11, 2020 9:20 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-11-20-i
ntl-hnk/index.html

"There is realistic chance" of stopping coronavirus, WHO director-general says

"“If we invest now in rational and evidence-based interventions, we have a realistic chance of stopping the COVID19 outbreak,” he said during a news conference on Tuesday."

The director-general said the virus could “create havoc” if it reaches a country whose health system is not capable of handling such an epidemic. “I have a great concern that if this virus makes it to a weaker health system it will create havoc,” he said. He cautioned that the fact that thus far authorities have been able to prevent that, “It doesn’t mean it will not happen — it may.”

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Tuesday, February 11, 2020 10:04 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-11-20-i
ntl-hnk/index.html

"There is realistic chance" of stopping coronavirus, WHO director-general says

"“If we invest now in rational and evidence-based interventions, we have a realistic chance of stopping the COVID19 outbreak,” he said during a news conference on Tuesday."

The director-general said the virus could “create havoc” if it reaches a country whose health system is not capable of handling such an epidemic.

India, every African nation that I can think of, South and Central America, and possibly even the USA with its illegal and homeless population ...

Quote:
“I have a great concern that if this virus makes it to a weaker health system it will create havoc,” he said. He cautioned that the fact that thus far authorities have been able to prevent that, “It doesn’t mean it will not happen — it may.”

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Tuesday, February 11, 2020 10:22 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

To me, the most telling factor is that Singapore has as much China air traffic as the US, and has community spread. I think they also have a denser population that's well-connected, and a better medical system where people have good access to doctors and won't hesitate to go if they feel ill. So they have better eyes on their situation than we do on ours.

I can imagine someone, or a few someones, in the US not feeling really well, who want or need to just shrug it off and carry on without seeing anyone. And if they were in a smaller community, or a not well-served community, I could imagine community spread going unnoticed until someone, or more likely a few someones, become critically ill and die. Because who's going to look too deeply into a pneumonia death or heart failure death of a elderly person during flu season? I think it would take a far louder alarm clock than that.

Anyway, here in the US I see the current problem as a(n) unidentified infectious person(s).

Across the globe, yeah, there are many countries where 2019-nCoV could become epidemic. And then what would the US do to stem the tide. Forbid ALL foreigners from landing in the US? It has the potential the become the zombie apocalypse, where an unstoppable tide comes through your door.

So I see the potential for spread through two waves - the first by direct import from China, the second by import from the world at large.

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Tuesday, February 11, 2020 11:05 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

... Another 39 Infected ON Cruise Ship
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/13-us-virus-case-confirmed-san-
diego-china-fires-2-top-health-officials-over-botched

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Tuesday, February 11, 2020 11:17 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

From the article ...

Quote:
After a relatively quiet 36 hours for the 'Diamond Princess', Japanese authorities reported 39 more cases, bringing the total to 174 out of 492 people on board tested, while Japan's defense Minister Taro Kono tweeted that a quarantine officer from the health ministry also tested positive for the virus. As Bloomberg notes, Carnival’s Diamond Princess cruise ship has become the biggest center of infection of any place outside of China. The Diamond Princess was placed under quarantine last week and checks were conducted after a passenger from Hong Kong who had been on the ship tested positive for the virus. The ship has become a case of concern because of the possibility of more infections in the vessel’s confined spaces, and the increased risks to elderly passengers.

So isolating people in their cabins and serving them meals in-cabin HASN'T stopped the spread of the NOCOV-19 virus? Do the servers test positive? If not, what's left? Ventilation systems?

Like I said, it will provide valuable data once they tease out HOW people are becoming infected. I'd sure hate to be on that ship.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Tuesday, February 11, 2020 11:50 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-11-20-i
ntl-hnk/index.html

"There is realistic chance" of stopping coronavirus, WHO director-general says

"“If we invest now in rational and evidence-based interventions, we have a realistic chance of stopping the COVID19 outbreak,” he said during a news conference on Tuesday."

The director-general said the virus could “create havoc” if it reaches a country whose health system is not capable of handling such an epidemic.
India, every African nation that I can think of, South and Central America, and possibly even the USA with its illegal and homeless population ...
Quote:
“I have a great concern that if this virus makes it to a weaker health system it will create havoc,” he said. He cautioned that the fact that thus far authorities have been able to prevent that, “It doesn’t mean it will not happen — it may.”

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

You don't think India would be capable of containing it?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, February 11, 2020 11:52 PM