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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-tes
t-ny.html

1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest

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The state’s plan would involve tracking infections as restrictions are loosened on gatherings and businesses. Antibody testing would be used, Mr. Cuomo said, for identifying coronavirus survivors who can donate convalescent plasma — the part of the blood that contains antibodies — for a treatment that is being tested on patients with the virus at the Mount Sinai Health System in New York, and elsewhere.

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https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/data-on-gileads-remdesivir-release
d-by-accident-show-no-benefit-for-coronavirus-patients/

New data on Gilead’s remdesivir, released by accident, show no benefit for coronavirus patients. Company still sees reason for hope

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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-slide-report-gilead-miracle-d
rug-remdesivir-flopped-during-first-clinical-trial

Stocks Dump, Gilead Crashes After FT Reports Gilead's Remdesivir "Flops" In First Clinical Trial

Update (1350ET): How did the FT and Statnews get their hands on the remdesivir study? They were simply perusing the WHO website at the right time and just happened to stumble upon.

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...The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities to see if they had the antibodies to fight the coronavirus, indicating they have had the virus and recovered from it, Cuomo said.

With more than 19.4 million people residents, according to U.S. Census data, the preliminary results indicate that at least 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected with Covid-19.

The results differed across the state with the largest concentration of positive antibody tests found in New York City at 21.2%. In Long Island, 16.7% of the people tested were positive and in Westchester, where the state's first major outbreak originated, 11.7% of the tests were positive. The Covid-19 pandemic across the rest of the state is relatively contained with just 3.6% of positive test results.

....The testing results also may be artificially high because "these are people who were out and about shopping," Cuomo added. "They were not people who were in their home, they were not people isolated, they were not people who were quarantined who you could argue probably had a lower rate of infection because they wouldn't come out of the house."

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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SEROLOGY TESTING FOR SARS-COV2 IN NYC AND ACROSS NYS
....The testing results also may be artificially high because "these are people who were out and about shopping," Cuomo added. "They were not people who were in their home, they were not people isolated, they were not people who were quarantined who you could argue probably had a lower rate of infection because they wouldn't come out of the house."

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Yep. Biased sampling, Always a confounding factor.

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Also, I don't know what test kit they used, but I'm sure Chris Martenson will have something to say about that.

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For those of you unfamiliar with testing, one of the continuing problems with these point-of-care (fingerstick) tests is that they suffer from high false positives (as high as 5%) because they will also react to other coronaviruses. So you could, in theory, test 100 people who have never been exposed to SARS-CoV2 and get five positive results.

Therefore, when testing people with a low exposure rate, the results are somewhat iffy, as they could be attributed to false positives/chance. However, at the roughly 21% exposure rate in NYC the results become more robust, and chance has less of an impact.

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So we should expect to see roughly 4X more deaths until herd immunity is reached at about 85%, or slightly less than 5X more deaths until everyone has been exposed and infected. That would mean about 60,000 - 75,000 in NYC. ASSUMING ANTIBODIES CONFER ROBUST, LONG-LASTING IMMUNITY, which could be a mirage.

Also, since everyone wants to know "what does this mean FOR ME?" since 21% of 8.7 million people (NYC) have been infected and about 15,000 have died this is a case fatality rate of about 0.8%. However, since people are STILL dying of infections that they got weeks ago (there is a lag between infections and death of AT LEAST 2 weeks)

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the possibility is that the case fatality rate will be somewhat higher ... maybe more in the realm of 1%. Also, this will vary from region to region depending on how old, fat, and sick the population is as well as quality of care, but doesn't bode well for the rural south where people are fatter and sicker than in most other parts of the nation. By contrast, Colorado should do better, since people there are leaner, healthier, and younger, with higher quality of care.


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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
... having heard very similar things about hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) ...

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol no.

You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.

You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol no.

You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.

You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol no.

You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.

You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.

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Do you miss going to work? Yup, didn't think so.

I'm guessing (not really) that there's someone or group behind the recent, coordinate, well organized, perfectly timed, all in states with Dem Govs, "we want to go back to work!" bullshit. Were you out there banging a drum to go back to your sh*t job? No? Why not?

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
COVID-19: NOT "THE FLU"



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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'm not going to adhere to those specific weeks.

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SIX: I'm not wrong though.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Just as a point of curiosity, Czechia has been pointed out quite often as the nation which requires wearing masks in public. Their current death rate is 19.5/MM.

However, masks weren't their only response. They were one of the first to close their borders to China (Jan 30), Italy, S Korea, and Iran (Mar 2-7), and eventually to all nations (Apr 6), one of the first to ban gatherings (Mar 23) and close schools (mar 10), and require face masks (march 18). Since then, they have eased a lot of restrictions.

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
The problem with preventing epidemics is that if you do everything right ... nothing happens.

That tends to lead to the question "What WOULD have happened if we had done nothing"?

That's why I look at primarily Sweden and Norway, two nations that are culturally, economically, socially, as alike as possible, with the exception that Sweden has decided not to impose mandated social distancing while Norway has.

So, just checkin in with these nations on 91-divoc, I see that Sweden has surpassed a whole number of nations in deaths/MM, and is closing in on the Netherlands, which was one of the EU nations noted with a relatively high death rate - not quite as bad as Italy and Spain, but almost. So Sweden has jumped up to 187 deaths/MM and is still climbing rather smartly. It still has that peculiar "stairstep" pattern to the data.

Norway OTOH is at about 35 deaths/MM. Altho other nations have managed to control their outbreaks more successfully (Albania, Lithuania, Greece etc) Norways's curve is a lot flatter than Sweden's.

Just as a point of curiosity, Czechia has been pointed out quite often as the nation which requires wearing masks in public. Their current death rate is 19.5/MM.

However, masks weren't their only response. They were one of the first to close their borders to China (Jan 30), Italy, S Korea, and Iran (Mar 2-7), and eventually to all nations (Apr 6), one of the first to ban gatherings (Mar 23) and close schools (mar 10), and require face masks (march 18). Since then, they have eased a lot of rstrictions.





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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'm not going to adhere to those specific weeks.

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Of course not. That's because you just blithely ignore reality.

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SIX: I'm not wrong though.

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Well, if you're saying that the # of deaths per day will eventually go down as vulnerable people die off... you're right! But it won't happen as you show because there are still lots and lots and lots more (about 20X more) people across the USA to be infected, so my guess is that if we follow your "advice" and don't try to slow transmisison down the number of deaths per day would peak out 10X higher than it is now. So yeah... imagine that chart ten times taller, and the #of deaths per day at 15,000, not 2,000.


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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol no.

You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.

You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.

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Do you miss going to work? Yup, didn't think so.

I'm guessing (not really) that there's someone or group behind the recent, coordinate, well organized, perfectly timed, all in states with Dem Govs, "we want to go back to work!" bullshit. Were you out there banging a drum to go back to your sh*t job? No? Why not?

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Yeah. I actually do. I loved my job.

It's not just about work.

If you don't get it now, you will.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Almost all of the people who were going to die from this before the shutdowns are likely to die of something else soon or are going to eventually die of this anyhow.

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol no.

You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.

You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.

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Do you miss going to work? Yup, didn't think so.

I'm guessing (not really) that there's someone or group behind the recent, coordinate, well organized, perfectly timed, all in states with Dem Govs, "we want to go back to work!" bullshit. Were you out there banging a drum to go back to your sh*t job? No? Why not?

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Yeah. I actually do. I loved my job.

It's not just about work.

If you don't get it now, you will.

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How'd you lose it?

Do you think that's true of most of these yahoos out "protesting?" Total BS if you think so.

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Almost all of the people who were going to die from this before the shutdowns are likely to die of something else soon or are going to eventually die of this anyhow.

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Everyone dies eventually, so let's just stop Health Care in general - we'd save tons of money. Less traffic, no waiting in long lines, front row seating, nothing but upside. And by all means, let's let politicians decide on who to treat and when. TSSYP

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
At some point you just have to look at the numbers as a whole and realize that this is not nearly as deadly as the panic mongers were saying that it would be and start looking at what we're doing to everybody else's lives and potentially their livelihood going forward in response to it and asking yourself if it's worth it.

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
At some point you just have to look at the numbers as a whole and realize that this is not nearly as deadly as the panic mongers were saying that it would be and start looking at what we're doing to everybody else's lives and potentially their livelihood going forward in response to it and asking yourself if it's worth it.

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That's because people stayed home, doofus. Can't contract it if you stay away from those that have it, gdamn. You still don't get how a virus works.

The problem is how to reintegrate everyone without making it worse. Too many people too fast and we go back to overwhelming HC providers and that's a DEF Con 5 situation - absolutely can't keep pushing those people.
Georgia? Trump pushed the Gov and he took the bait. He's out on a limb all by himself. Well, with his entire state. They're the test subject. We'll see. Would they even post the real numbers if they were bad? Or would Trump fire people until he finds one who will say "it worked!"

TREATMENT is key. Vaccine is way too far out to be effective in bringing back any semblance of normal or a stable economy.

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Confirmed cases are limited to people who have tested positive for the virus, and testing so far has been skewed toward people with severe symptoms. Since people infected by the virus typically experience mild to no symptoms, it is not surprising that the official tally understates the number of infections, although the apparent size of the gap is striking.

Since the number of infections in Los Angeles County is much higher than the official numbers indicate, Ferrer told reporters, the risk of transmission is higher than expected, which reinforces the case for aggressive control measures, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders. At the same time, she said, the fact that 95 percent or so of the county's adult population remains uninfected shows those measures are working.

In other words, no matter what the actual prevalence of the virus is, and no matter how you look at it, that information justifies maintaining the statewide lockdown. One wonders what conceivable results from the antibody study might have caused Ferrer to reconsider the wisdom of that policy.

The question is especially pressing in light of the fatality rate implied by the study. In contrast with the current crude case fatality rate of about 4.5 percent, Ferrer said, the study suggests that 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of people infected by the virus will die, which would make COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu.

That finding is consistent with the results of an earlier antibody study in Santa Clara County. "The mortality rate now has dropped a lot," Ferrer conceded.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
How do you know half of my story but don't know all of it?

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
After corporate restructuring... yawn

But I don't need much money and some things are more important than cash when you're not a wage slave.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Are you suggesting that people who aren't working now because they hate their jobs are better off for it?

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Because I guaranty you that when the "free" government money stops and the economy opens back up and millions who used to have jobs don't have one to go back to that will not be the case.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:That's because people stayed home, doofus. Can't contract it if you stay away from those that have it, gdamn.
No it's not. (In regards to the underlined sentence).

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
You can look at my math.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I know a bleeding heart pussy like you can't comprehend that idea and it makes you cry just thinking about it.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Almost all of the people who were going to die from this before the shutdowns are likely to die of something else soon or are going to eventually die of this anyhow.

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Everyone dies eventually, so let's just stop Health Care in general - we'd save tons of money. Less traffic, no waiting in long lines, front row seating, nothing but upside. And by all means, let's let politicians decide on who to treat and when. TSSYP

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I didn't say anything about health care, dummy.

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
How do you know half of my story but don't know all of it?

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wtf? Who the fuk cares about your "story???"

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Oh, right, Jack says they won't.

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JACK:
You're still talking almost nothing in Sweden.

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JACK:
Models showing that 50 to 80 times as many people are infected than we know about (and I'm not providing a link for that since YOU AND KIKI posted those already, and you know exactly what I'm talking about) show a much higher number of those infected.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I haven't been wrong here yet.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

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JACK:
You're still talking almost nothing in Sweden.

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Because Sweden isn't the US. More than half of Sweden's residences house just one person. A quarter of Sweden's workers work from home, a third of them do in Stockholm, and 90% do for the largest companies. It has no large metropolises. Its very largest city, Stockholm, has about 1M people, the same size as San Jose, California. 90% of Swedes say they're socially isolating due to SARS-COV-2.

With all that going for it, Sweden, with a population of 1M has over 2,100 deaths, and heading sharply up. Norway, with a similar setting to Sweden and a population of 0.5M has 200 deaths, or less than 1/5 of Sweden's on a per capita basis and slowly increasing. And Los Angeles County, with a vastly different culture and 10M inhabitants, has 800 deaths or quite a bit less than half of Sweden, on a per capita basis, on a similar slope with Norway.

Social isolation works.

Now, in case you think I'm in favor of social isolation, I'd like to remind you that I'm all for states opening up without any controls at all ... as long as it passes by majority referendum, and as long as they don't later go to the feds for COVID $help$ because they messed up.

What I would LIKE to see is mandatory mask-wearing in public. It's the fastest, cheapest, simplest, least intrusive measure to take.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

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JACK:
Models showing that 50 to 80 times as many people are infected than we know about (and I'm not providing a link for that since YOU AND KIKI posted those already, and you know exactly what I'm talking about) show a much higher number of those infected.

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Your numbers are off.

I've already disproved the 4% figure for anywhere but Santa Clara and Los Angeles counties (where the 4% numbers were generated) because when applied to California as a whole, and using that factor to apply to NYC, they give an infection rate of 150%. Even taking 2 random counties in California and applying that figure across the state gives a bogus factor. Applying the LACounty 4% infection rate to LACounty alone, them back-calculating to NYC gives an infection rate of 50%, which is better than 150%, but over twice the current measurement of 20%.

OBVIOUSLY you can't take a percent from one population and apply it to another, because you know those populations differ in terms of exposure. Nome Alaska is not Long Beach, California.

Your assumptions are invalid.

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

BTW 41 grocery store workers have died from c-19.

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Hey Jack - at what age can we write someone off as, "they were going to die anyway?" Anyone 70+? 80+? 85? Who gets to make that call?

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JACK:

"Models showing that 50 to 80 times as many people are infected than we know about "

No. You're wrong.

I already did the math for NYC.

At 80 times it's a bit higher than 100%

At 50 times it's 67%.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Coronavirus Diagnoses In Staff Drop By Half After Boston Hospital Requires Masks For All
April 23, 2020
Carey Goldberg

After Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston began requiring that nearly everyone in the hospital wear masks, new coronavirus infections diagnosed in its staffers dropped by half — or more.

Brigham and Women’s epidemiologist Dr. Michael Klompas said the hospital mandated masks for all health care staffers on March 25, and extended the requirement to patients as well on April 6.

"When we first began our universal masking policy, we had 12 to 14 new infections per day among our health care workers," he said. "And then after we instituted employee masking, that number dropped down to around eight."]licNPR One

It dropped still further to about six new infections a day once patients had to wear masks, too.

This is by no means gold-plated evidence, Klompas said, and correlation is not causation, but it does suggest that wearing simple masks

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may help stem the spread of the virus, whether in a hospital or out in public.

He hopes to find out whether other hospitals in the Partners Healthcare system, which imposed the "universal mask" policy system-wide, have seen similar drops. "If it's a consistent pattern, I'd be more apt to believe it," he said.

It's thought that employees most often catch the virus outside the hospital, Klompas said, so that could explain why the number of new infections did not drop all the way to zero.

Before the masking policy was brought in, the numbers of new infections had been rising steadily, he explained. Under the new policy, they stabilized and then within a couple of days began to drop, even though the overall numbers were still rising in Boston and Massachusetts.

"So we were seeing a mismatch," he said, "in between what was happening with the health-care workers, where things were getting better, compared to the rest of the town, where things were getting worse."

The universal mask policy was still relatively rare when the Partners hospitals imposed it in late March, but is now common.

Reaction to the masking policy has been positive, Klompas said.

"My biggest challenge is simply remembering that I need to put my mask on every time I leave my office," he added. "Even I need reminding."

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UN Leader Says the World Could Face 'Famines of Biblical Proportions' amid Coronavirus Crisis

“While dealing with a COVID-19 pandemic, we are also on the brink of a hunger pandemic,” David Beasley, the director of the UN World Food Program warned

As the world continues to battle the coronavirus pandemic, the United Nations is warning that without action, the world is at risk of numerous famines “of biblical proportions” in the near future.

He explained that famines could be seen “in about three dozen countries,” ten of which already have more than 1 million people on the verge of starvation.

“There is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself,” he warned.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
That response doesn't even make any sense, dummy.

Try again.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by JACK:
since male suicides in our country are of no concern for you, here's the prelude to an insane amount of people who are going to die of hunger

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Originally posted by JACK:
That response doesn't even make any sense, dummy.

Try again.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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