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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I conjure most of the folk I expect to read my posts are in this thread, so I'll post this here:

I was last able to post here on 16 March, before the libraries closed. Today is the first opportunity to access with some of the libraries opening up to limited use.
The time is limited, for the upcoming weeks. I have been able to watch the threads each day, and I have accumulated a bunch of backlogged posts to catch up on. Many of these posts will take some time to assemble and compose. So please be patient, and expect that my posts will be edited for a few days after they appear.

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Maybe instead of having a total shutdown where nobody can do anything, and then opening everything back up right away in the large cities isn't the answer.

Think back on the last few months and how empty the beds were.

If they had a steady trickle the whole time, there probably wouldn't be concern about a glut now.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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blah blah blah ... do nothing ... blah blah blah

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
JACK, I've plugged into my local online community. By a ~30:1 ratio everyone is for masks, social distancing, making hand sanitizers available, and so on. There's only a very few opposed ravers who're pretty loony in their posts. And my community has an extremely low infection rate. I think that's cause and effect. (Though one member has been keeping track of how full the local community hospitals are, which apparently is near full, or full; even with as well as we're doing.)

MOST people here in my locale aren't jackasses.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
https://nypost.com/2020/06/25/getting-realistic-about-the-coronavirus-
death-rate/

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In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ­esti­mated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26 percent of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

Estimates for the coronavirus’ lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the ­so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected.

Tracking deaths is relatively easy. But tracking infections can be tough. Many people who are infected with respiratory ­viruses like influenza or the novel coronavirus have only mild symptoms or none. They may never be tested or even know they are infected.

Probably the best way to discover the real number is through antibody tests, which measure how many people have already been infected and recovered — even if they never had symptoms.

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Kind of saying pretty much everything I've been saying all along. In fact, it sounds like I wrote the article.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Baloney.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

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When averaged over the entire State of California, LACounty case numbers which are driving CA case numbers don't look so bad.

However, when focusing on LACounty by itself:

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L.A. County issues dire warning amid 'alarming increases' in coronavirus cases

... the highly contagious virus is spreading swiftly in the community.

Barbara Ferrer, the director of public health for L.A. County, said that new data show "alarming increases in cases, positivity rates and hospitalization."

With a predicted increase in hospitalizations, for the first time since the coronavirus crisis seemed to ease locally, L.A. County is now projecting the possibility of running out of hospital beds in two to three weeks. Likewise, the number of intensive care unit beds could be exhausted sometime in July.

It can take three to four weeks after exposure to the virus for infected people to become sick enough to be hospitalized, and four to five weeks after exposure for some of the most vulnerable patients to die from the disease. "So even if steps are taken immediately to reduce the spread in the community, we do expect to see a continued uptick in the next two to four weeks," Lewis said.

All public and private hospitals in L.A. County need to be prepared to treat more patients based on these projections, Ghaly said.

The effective transmission rate of the coronavirus has now increased. Previously, through the beginning of May, for every one person infected, fewer than one other person on average was infected — a testament to the success of the stay-at-home order. But by early June, as the reopening accelerated, the coronavirus transmission rate had crept above 1, meaning for every one person infected, 1.26 people are infected on average.

"We expect the number of cases to rise quickly," Ghaly said.

Although this rate is smaller than what L.A. County saw earlier in the pandemic, when every one infected person on average infected three other people, the current rate can still cause a much larger number of new cases "because of the much broader base of infected individuals that we have today," Ghaly said.

The increase in transmission likely occurred sometime around the week of Memorial Day week or shortly thereafter. At the time, L.A. County officials decided to gradually reopen the economy because the data was stable, with no increases in hospitalizations and a decline in new deaths, Ferrer said.

But unfortunately, people and businesses haven't been adhering to health orders to wear masks in public and stay away from crowded situations. Half of the restaurants visited by county inspectors are not complying with the new rules, and officials have seen examples of overcrowding at public spaces.

"I've had an explosion of new outbreaks in workplaces. One that got shut down this past weekend, it had over 115 infections. Again, very little compliance with the directives on how to operate a factory with as much safety as possible," Ferrer said.

"And we've had numerous examples of outbreaks happen because families are getting together with extended family members and friends to celebrate weddings, things they had postponed, and again, created higher risk, and there was transmission," Ferrer said.

Ferrer also said that, according to data by Foursquare, that the weekend after June 20, the day when bars reopened in L.A. County, 500,000 people visited nightlife spots. And the county has observed a 40% increase in coronavirus cases among younger people, between the ages of 18 and 40, in the past two weeks.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/l-a-county-issues-dire-warning-amid-
alarming-increases-in-coronavirus-cases/ar-BB167tSp

One thing we know for a fact that works is complete shutdown. The evidence is specifically Wuhan, N Italy, and NYC, and also generally in Europe, where SARS-CoV-2 was beaten back from rampant levels to declining to very low.

The fact that California case numbers were increasing slowly DESPITE stay at home orders is something I've been both puzzling over and focusing on for a long time. It didn't bode well for the future when those orders would get lifted.

So, I'll make a couple of predictions. Right now, everyone is saying that it's not so bad because these infection spikes in California (and btw across the country) are occurring in young people. (1)So we'll (CA) see an increase in R0, in positive-test rates, and even in hospitalizations, but should not see an increase in deaths over the next 4 weeks.

But those young people will then spread it to at risk people - people with risk factors like obesity, hypertension, and age. It's inevitable, as night follows day. (2)And THAT wave WILL see increased deaths, 6-8 weeks from now. It's already baked into the future, unless young people start wearing masks and practicing social distancing to protect others right now (or Newsom gets serious about mask orders and tells counties who've already declared they won't enforce them that state funds will not be coming their way as a result).

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
https://nypost.com/2020/06/25/getting-realistic-about-the-coronavirus-
death-rate/

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In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ­esti­mated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26 percent of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

Estimates for the coronavirus’ lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the ­so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected.

Tracking deaths is relatively easy. But tracking infections can be tough. Many people who are infected with respiratory ­viruses like influenza or the novel coronavirus have only mild symptoms or none. They may never be tested or even know they are infected.

Probably the best way to discover the real number is through antibody tests, which measure how many people have already been infected and recovered — even if they never had symptoms.

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Kind of saying pretty much everything I've been saying all along. In fact, it sounds like I wrote the article.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Baloney.

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From the parts of the article that 6ix posted, I did feel like he had written it, with everything seeming to be what he has been posting repeatedly in this thread (and maybe others).

Perhaps much of what 6ix has posted has been overlooked. In favor of what you think he was posting.


#Pantsdown Riot and Loot!

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
nextdoor.com

It's neighbors chatting with each other, without the constraints of face-to-face politeness.


I'd give you a link but you'd have to be in my hood and join to be able to see what people are going on about.

Personally, I was just reading the back-and-forth. I wasn't a part of the conversation, and nobody even knew I was there. So it's not as if they were posting anything to please me. And reading the conversations, they certainly aren't posting to please anyone else, either!

But maybe you could join YOUR nextdoor.com group and find out what people in your area are really saying, instead of pretending to post for all those people you've never met, and never read, and have no clue what it is that they're thinking. And yanno, in general, you might learn something instead of making shit up because you have no facts.

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JACK:
more trolling and lies as a substitute for facts and honesty

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Originally posted by second:

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
BUT !! .. back to the OP:
Global coronavirus cases surge past 80,000 as new outbreak clusters emerge

According to the CDC, both Italy and Iran are experiencing “sustained community spread of respiratory illness (COVID-19) caused by the novel coronavirus.”

The United States has raised its travel advisories for South Korea and Japan, warning about "sustained community spread" ...

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1kiki, if you were not such a panicky troll you'd know that so far (updated Feb. 19), the new coronavirus, dubbed COVID-19, has led to more than 75,000 illnesses and 2,000 deaths, primarily in mainland China. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

On a personal note: I have no allergies, I take no medicines, other than an annual flu shot and the two pneumonia vaccines and I have not been sick even once in the 21st Century. I also passed my immunity to disease onto my children and grandchildren. It follows that I am not a panicky troll like 1kiki is about coronavirus.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
lol

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Not sure why this COVID-19 scare has you willing to go full Government Control over everything.

I suppose everyone has their price and they found yours.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I expect this is nothing new for her. I expect she has encouraged full Government Control at every opportunity, and every turn. More Government control. Bigger Government. Expand Government. Government good, honest working folk bad. She has been a Democrat for a very long time, been a devout follower of all required facets of the Democrat religion, and has chosen to spend her life in a Democrat hellhole. No need to ride anybody right now, this is what they have believed all of their lives.

As the DNC (Does Not Care) party mantra goes, never let a good crisis go to waste - get more Government Control out of it, More Government funding, Bigger Government, more expansive Government.



As for Nationalized Health Care, Universal Health Care, Government Health Care, etc - this is what the vaunted Italian system is, and they have 1/3 o the ICU beds per capita as the U.S. does. Their Death Panels are overwhelmed with decisions of who to kill and who to treat. Their individual hospitals are overwhelmed with death decisions of who to kill or let die, every floor of these hospitals is overwhelmed with who to kill, and each doctor or specialist is overwhelmed with decisions of who to kill - socialized Health Care is the Utopian model. They also mentioned that some specific hospitals in their nationalized system (like Lombardy) are even more better funded and equipped than other hospitals in the same system - where everything is equal.

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Just for the record I have not once, NOT ONCE ! stated anything positive about any government control anywhere to contain coronavirus.

This is just jerkwad Kevin making shit up as usual, and you, being the slackjawed sidekick you are, going along with it. If either of you had any trace of honor or honesty left in you, you'd be just a little bit ashamed of colluding together to lie so egregiously. But you aren't.

Just for the record ...

... you are both lying sack-of-shit raw oozing...


ASSHOLES.

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Originally posted by JSF:
But it (lockdown) was presented as a temporary thing, and for specific reasons.

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Cures have been found or proposed

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even if States and Governors have outlawed them.

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Mask and other PPE production and supply has ramped up. Hospitals have been ghosttowns for months, with doctors and nurses furloughed indefinitely due to all the empty beds.

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spread of cases and deaths has been mitigated and slowed, giving time for all of the stated specific needs.

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On the other hand, economies have gone in the toilet, Power-Hungry Dems have resisted or refused to end lockdowns - once they grabbed the power, they never want to give it up.

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Some states have gone Death Panel Happy, shuffling as many old folks to the funeral home as they can manage, creating as much spread and death as possible.

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So what is the reasonable level? What percent of spread? We all know it will never be zero until herd immunity has occurred.
How many more years of lockdown is really needed?

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Remember that, if a nation implodes upon itself, there are plenty of dictators and despots around the world who would love to take a nation when it is down and out, and confiscate it or invade it.
The Chicken Little Ninnies have had their respite. What is next.

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After several months of mixed messages on the coronavirus pandemic, the White House is settling on a new one: Learn to live with it. On Thursday, the United States reported more than 55,000 new cases of coronavirus and infection rates were hitting new records in multiple states.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/we-need-live-it-white-house-rea
dies-new-message-nation-n1232884

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The president himself is still engaged in wishful thinking that the virus will simply magically disappear. The rest of the Republican leadership is assuming that people will be desperate enough to go to work and live their normal lives even if it means possibly killing themselves and vulnerable people around them, or becoming violently ill for weeks with possible lifelong health repercussions.

America, with four percent of the world’s population, has 25 percent of the cases of the disease. (25 percent of deaths, too, 132K US deaths to 525K World deaths)

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/07/04/the-trump-administration-is-g
iving-up-on-fighting-the-pandemic/

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...
If these reports stand up to further scrutiny, it would be very good news because they suggest that the pandemic could be over sooner and ultimately be less lethal than feared.

First, a few caveats: Both studies are based on small sample sizes and neither have yet been vetted by peer review.

...

"One interesting observation was that it wasn't just individuals with verified COVID-19 who showed T-cell immunity but also many of their exposed asymptomatic family members," said Karolinska researcher Soo Aleman. "Moreover, roughly 30 per cent of the blood donors who'd given blood in May 2020 had COVID-19-specific T cells, a figure that's much higher than previous antibody tests have shown."

"Our results indicate that roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in," noted Karolinska Center for Infectious Medicine researcher Marcus Buggert.

...

Study co-author Hans-Gustaf Ljunggren told The Telegraph that if the study's findings are replicated, they would apply to any country. London, for instance, might have about 30 percent immunity and New York above 40 percent. If so, some parts of the U.S. are much closer to herd immunity than population-wide antibody testing currently suggests.

...

Still the Swedish researchers caution, "It remains to be determined if a robust memory T cell response in the absence of detectable circulating antibodies can protect against [the virus]."

In a second study, German researchers analyzed blood samples of 365 people, of which 180 had had COVID-19 and 185 had not. When they exposed the blood samples to the COVID-19 coronavirus, they found, as expected, that blood from those who had had the illness produced a substantial immune response. More significantly, they also found that 81 percent of the subjects who had never had COVID-19 also produced a T-cell immune reaction, reports The Science Times. If the German study's results prove out, that would suggest that earlier common cold coronavirus infections may provide about eight in 10 people some degree of immune protection from the COVID-19 virus.

The findings in both of these studies are potentially very good news with respect to public health and the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here's hoping that future replications will validate them.

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Prematurely?

Like shutting down the economy, making kids stay home from school, the complete upheaval of every American's lives kind of prematurely?

Sure thing.

I'm a patient man. I'm usually right with enough time.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/health/coronavirus-recovery-survivo
rs.html

Here’s What Recovery From Covid-19 Looks Like for Many Survivors

What problems do patients experience after leaving the hospital?

There are many. Patients may leave the hospital with scarring, damage or inflammation that still needs to heal in the lungs, heart, kidneys, liver or other organs. This can cause a range of problems, including urinary and metabolism issues.

Dr. Zijian Chen, the medical director of the new Center for Post-Covid Care at Mount Sinai Health System, said the biggest physical problem the center was seeing was shortness of breath, which can be the result of lung or heart impairments or a blood-clotting problem. “Some have an intermittent cough that doesn’t go away that makes it hard for them to breathe,” he said. Some are even on nasal oxygen at home, but it is not helping them enough.

“You have prolonged lengths of stay on a ventilator and in the ICU that are now longer than we’ve ever seen before,” Dr. Ferrante said. “One worries that this is going to have repercussions for physical function and that we’ll see more people not recovering.”

(Then there are the expected effects of long-term bed confinement and ventilator support: loss of muscle and weakness, nerve damage, difficulty speaking due to inflamed vocal chords, PTSD, other and emotional and mental problems clustered in what's known as "post-intensive care syndrome".)

(Because people with COVID-19 have such extraordinarily long stays in the ICU, they're more subject to) hospital delirium, a condition that can involve paranoid hallucinations and anxious confusion. Studies, including one by a team at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, have found that ICU patients who experience hospital delirium are more likely to have cognitive impairment in the months after they leave the hospital.

Dr. Chen said that Mount Sinai’s post-Covid center has referred nearly 40 percent of patients to neurologists for issues like fatigue, confusion and mental fogginess. “Some of it is very debilitating,” he said. “We have patients who come in and tell us: ‘I can’t concentrate on work. I’ve recovered, I don’t have any breathing problems, I don’t have chest pain, but I can’t get back to work because I can’t concentrate.’”

Patients and their families should realize that fluctuations in progress are normal.

“There are going to be days where everything’s going right with your lungs, but your joints are feeling so achy that you can’t get up and do your pulmonary rehab and you have a few setbacks,” Dr. Putrino said. “Or your pulmonary care is going OK, but your cognitive fog is causing you to have anxiety and causing you to spiral, so you need to drop everything and work with your neuropsychologist intensively.”

How long do these issues last?

For many people, the lungs are likely to recover, often within months. But other problems can linger and some people may never make a full recovery, experts say.

One benchmark is a 2011 New England Journal of Medicine study of 109 patients in Canada who had been treated for acute respiratory distress syndrome, or ARDS, the kind of lung failure that afflicts many Covid-19 patients. Five years later ...
On one crucial test — how far patients could walk in six minutes — their median distance was about 477 yards, only three-quarters of the distance researchers had predicted. The patients ranged in age from 35 to 57, (but neither younger nor older patients) "returned to normal predicted levels of physical function at five years,” the authors wrote.

Dr. Chen said ... There may be “hundreds of thousands who are going to be afflicted with these chronic syndromes that may take a long time to heal, and that’s going to be a very big health problem and also a big economic problem if we don’t take care of them,” Dr. Chen said.

“I think the main take-home here is that post-Covid care is complex,” Dr. Putrino said. “It’s hard enough to rehabilitate someone with a broken leg where one thing is wrong.”

“But with post-Covid care,” he said, “you’re dealing with people with some cognition issues, physical issues, lung issues, heart issues, kidney issues, trauma — and all of these things have to be managed just right.”

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Have you already forgotten that long list of 'wrongness' I posted just a couple of weeks ago? Yanno, that list I could have easily doubled?

Keep piling on the 'wrongness', JACK!!!

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Nobody cares.

And two months from now nobody will be talking about this anymore just like they've stopped talking about The Coomph.

But feel free to say all their names, Mr. Virtue Signal.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61954&p=68
Originally posted by THG:
History will show...

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
That I'm right again.

I usually am.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61954&p=67
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Meanwhile, nobody I know IRL has even brought it up.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=2
Sunday, February 2, 2020 2:15 AM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Or maybe they realized that most people are tuning out and it isn't generating any ratings for them anymore.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=14
Friday, March 13, 2020 1:09 PM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Average age of deaths from Coronavirus in the US: 80

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Total young and middle aged deaths from Coronavirus in the US: 0

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More than half of those died in a single old folks home in Washington State.

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Friday, March 13, 2020 1:10 PM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
This is starting to look more and more like a big nothing burger to me.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, March 13, 2020 3:00 PM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

We're all going to get it. Every single one of us. It's inevitable at this point.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, March 15, 2020 10:03 AM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Not sure why this COVID-19 scare has you willing to go full Government Control over everything.

I suppose everyone has their price and they found yours.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, March 15, 2020 2:45 PM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

There is zero chance that 53.6% of Italians are dying of the virus and only 56.4% of them are recovering.

I recommend that whatever publication put that lie into your head you go right on ahead and cancel your membership to it right now.

Go on. Git!

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Keep spreading the panic, Maddow.


Cause there's zero chance that over 14.5% of Italians that got it have died either.

For every person who's been tested, there's 10 to 100 people who haven't been because they didn't even know they were sick or they're not pussies that go to the doctor every time they get the sniffles.


More like 1.4%, max. Even more likely 0.14% or less.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=15 http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=16
Thursday, March 19, 2020 5:00 AM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
There's probably a million people with it in the States. Maybe ten. Twenty?

They've tested 41k as of yesterday. By the time they put a dent in testing, half the people they test will have already gotten over it and not even known they had it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=17
Friday, March 20, 2020 9:38 AM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

We don't know what happened in Italy yet. Compared to the rest of the world, that is an anomaly. It would suit you well to remember that and stop freaking out about the unknown until there are more facts.


Because right here in the united states, 150 people died so far since this started.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=18
Sunday, March 22, 2020 9:59 AM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

No. Your numbers are bad. For 15 Million people to die, you're basing them on 4.6% of people getting the virus dying if we all got infected, when it's much more likely to be only. .1%.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

The only people who are easily terrified are those who have never faced any adversity in their lives.

You should be grateful for your extremely privileged life that you've grown accustomed to and try not focusing on what you might lose so you won't feel so bad about it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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