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Originally posted by SECOND:
CDC Seems to Project Half a Million Deaths From COVID-19

www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/05/cdc-projects-half-a-million-dea
ths-from-covid-19/

HALF A MILLION DEATHS.

I suppose it’s possible that the CDC is completely off base. But . . . probably not.

HALF A MILLION DEATHS.

Words are failing me. Do they really believe this? And they’re keeping it a secret while Donald Trump says everything is OK and we should start reopening the economy? Will someone please tell me that this was just some intern screwing around with a spreadsheet that accidentally got into the hands of the New York Times? Or a fat finger error? Or a decimal place that got dropped?

ARE THEY SERIOUSLY KEEPING IT A SECRET THAT THEY EXPECT HALF A MILLION DEATHS FROM COVID-19?

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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The White House and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quickly disavowed the report...
The work contained a wide range of possibilities and modeling was not complete, according to Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who created the model.
He said he didn’t know how the update was turned into a slidedeck by government officials and shared with news organizations. The data was first reported by the New York Times.
“I had no role in the process by which that was presented and shown. This data was presented as an FYI to CDC … it was not in any way intended to be a forecast,” Lessler said. Lessler insisted, however, the numbers show how moving to reopen the country could spiral out of control.

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He said 100,000 cases per day by the end of the month is within the realm of possibility*. Much depends on political decisions being made today.

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KIKI: But why is anybody even debating JACK?

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

But I think I've made that point plenty of times. It's like asking "What are America's (or Americans') interests?" Since nobody even recognizes the category of "America" and "American" as meaningful (except to whip up hysteria about some perceived enemy) and nobody recognizes kinship with other Americans, I guess America is truly dead. Anyway, back on-topic.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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You realize you sound like second in that last part?

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No, I don't. The difference between SECOND and me and hubby is that we WORKED for our money, SECOND just rolled the dice and now lives the life of a rentier capitalist.

So, since you've avoided the question about a half-dozen times by now:

WHAT IS THE GOAL OF YOUR DESPERATE ITCH TO "OPEN UP" THE ECONOMY?

Is is because you "care" so much about people and their lives and livelihoods? (If that's not the case, please stop using them as an excuse.)

Is it because you think people should sacrifice their lives for business owners and banks? (If that's not the case, please stop using the economy as an excuse.)

And if neither...what is it?

Genetic cleansing?
Overpopulation?
Trump's re-election?
Traumatic exposure to knowledge about viruses? (HIV)
Concern for some hypothetical "purposeless" white male?
Specific concern for your brothers and dad?
Resentment of the "boomer" generation, who you would like to see die off?
Or maybe it's all about you, and only you?
Something(s) else?

When someone gives -literally- more than a half-dozen reasons for something, CLEARLY they don't know - or don't want to admit - their REAL motivations.
You're a victim of fuzzy emotional thinking, SIX. Please try to reach some clarity. Stop rationalizing your emotions and answer that question: Not for us, just for yourself.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
in 2019 the USA birth rate was 11.979/1000 and the death rate was 8.720/1000, leading to a net increase of 3.197/1000. In a nation of 327 million (give or take) that's a net increase of 1.096 million people. So if in the course of 2020 we see about a million excess deaths then we can say that Covid stalled out our growth rate.

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According to NCHS data, a total of 3,788,235 babies were born in the United States in 2018.

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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You realize you sound like second in that last part?

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No, I don't. The difference between SECOND and me and hubby is that we WORKED for our money, SECOND just rolled the dice and now lives the life of a rentier capitalist.

So, since you've avoided the question about a half-dozen times by now:

WHAT IS THE GOAL OF YOUR DESPERATE ITCH TO "OPEN UP" THE ECONOMY?

Is is because you "care" so much about people and their lives and livelihoods? (If that's not the case, please stop using them as an excuse.)

Is it because you think people should sacrifice their lives for business owners and banks? (If that's not the case, please stop using the economy as an excuse.)

And if neither...what is it?

Genetic cleansing?
Overpopulation?
Trump's re-election?
Traumatic exposure to knowledge about viruses? (HIV)
Concern for some hypothetical "purposeless" white male?
Specific concern for your brothers and dad?
Resentment of the "boomer" generation, who you would like to see die off?
Or maybe it's all about you, and only you?
Something(s) else?

When someone gives -literally- more than a half-dozen reasons for something, CLEARLY they don't know - or don't want to admit - their REAL motivations.
You're a victim of fuzzy emotional thinking, SIX. Please try to reach some clarity. Stop rationalizing your emotions and answer that question: Not for us, just for yourself.

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You're confused. I said that, not Jack.

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New York Confirms Another 1,700 Unreported Nursing Home Deaths Caused By COVID-19

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SIGNYM: So, since you've avoided the question about a half-dozen times by now:

WHAT IS THE GOAL OF YOUR DESPERATE ITCH TO "OPEN UP" THE ECONOMY?

Is is because you "care" so much about people and their lives and livelihoods? (If that's not the case, please stop using them as an excuse.)

Is it because you think people should sacrifice their lives for business owners and banks? (If that's not the case, please stop using the economy as an excuse.)

And if neither...what is it?

Genetic cleansing?
Overpopulation?
Trump's re-election?
Traumatic exposure to knowledge about viruses? (HIV)
Concern for some hypothetical "purposeless" white male?
Specific concern for your brothers and dad?
Resentment of the "boomer" generation, who you would like to see die off?
Or maybe it's all about you, and only you?
Something(s) else?

When someone gives -literally- more than a half-dozen reasons for something, CLEARLY they don't know - or don't want to admit - their REAL motivations.
You're a victim of fuzzy emotional thinking, SIX. Please try to reach some clarity. Stop rationalizing your emotions and answer that question: Not for us, just for yourself.

SIX: ... I just ignored it.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
First off, we're not going to see close to a million.

Secondly, we'd need roughly 3.75 Million deaths to break even for the year.

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
First off, we're not going to see close to a million.

Secondly, we'd need roughly 3.75 Million deaths to break even for the year.

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How does this affect you again?

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What if we only find 3.5 million new deaths? Are you getting a hint at how pointless your pov is?

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Originally posted by JACK:

Why not just go by the actual numbers?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-15/u-s-2018-births-fal
l-to-lowest-level-in-32-years-cdc-data

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According to NCHS data, a total of 3,788,235 babies were born in the United States in 2018.

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First off, we're not going to see close to a million.

Secondly, we'd need roughly 3.75 Million deaths to break even for the year.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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JACK: Why not just go by the actual numbers?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-15/u-s-2018-births-fal
l-to-lowest-level-in-32-years-cdc-data

First off, we're not going to see close to a million.

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SIX:Secondly, we'd need roughly 3.75 Million deaths to break even for the year.

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A new strain has come: Meet Spike D614G, the new & improved coronavirus

Fears that the coronavirus would mutate into a more dangerous strain appear to have been borne out, as research has identified that a new, more contagious strain of SARS-CoV-2 has become the dominant form worldwide.

Fears that the coronavirus would mutate into a more dangerous strain appear to have been borne out, as research has identified that a new, more contagious strain of SARS-CoV-2 has become the dominant form worldwide.

The new strain, which has been dubbed ‘Spike D614G’ has been proliferating in Europe since at least mid-February, and spread to become the dominant form during the month of March. It is far more contagious than the original strain which emerged from Wuhan, for reasons as yet unknown.

Wherever it emerged it became dominant very quickly, and in some countries it became the only common strain within weeks. The paper notes that the rapid global spread of the coronavirus has provided it with “ample opportunity for natural selection to act upon rare but favorable mutations.’’ Furthermore, if the virus does not wane away as the weather warms in summer there will be nothing to stop it mutating into more and more strains.
Warning call

The research, which was carried out by a joint American and British team led by Los Alamos National Laboratory, has been released ahead of peer review as ‘an early warning’ to other researchers. As it stands, scientists studying the coronavirus around the world may be analysing the genetic sequence of the older strain, and therefore it is crucial that they collaborate with this team to get the latest information. “We cannot afford to be blindsided as we move vaccines and antibodies into clinical testing,” the lead author Dr Bette Korber, known for her work on HIV, said.

Because the paper has not yet been peer-reviewed, it has been published online on the server BioRxiv. However, the reputations of the scientists involved suggest that the findings are sound and must be taken with the utmost seriousness — the report is 33 pages long, and short on laughs. “This is hard news,’’ said Korber of the findings.

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Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2

Summary

We have developed an analysis pipeline to facilitate real-time mutation tracking in SARS-CoV-2, focusing initially on the Spike (S) protein because it mediates infection of human cells and is the target of most vaccine strategies and antibody-based therapeutics. To date we have identified fourteen mutations in Spike that are accumulating. Mutations are considered in a broader phylogenetic context, geographically, and over time, to provide an early warning system to reveal mutations that may confer selective advantages in transmission or resistance to interventions. Each one is evaluated for evidence of positive selection, and the implications of the mutation are explored through structural modeling. The mutation Spike D614G is of urgent concern; it began spreading in Europe in early February, and when introduced to new regions it rapidly becomes the dominant form. Also, we present evidence of recombination between locally circulating strains, indicative of multiple strain infections. These finding have important implications for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, pathogenesis and immune interventions.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Ending the lockdowns could be one big cluster-eff. Which is why I'm sorry to see it's being driven by a very small minority of loudmouthed bullies, some of them with guns. It should have happened by referendum. If everyone is going to be at risk, they should have a say in it. Also, as I've mentioned more than once, wearing masks in public should be mandatory minimum, and states that don't take precautions shouldn't expect to get federal bailouts for their own decisions. But that's just me.

Anyway, information I gathered from several sources indicates that the projected ~65,000 increased deaths will spike mostly in the south and in 'flyover country' to the Canadian border, in a series of outbreaks in small towns and rural areas.

I'm hesitant to agree with that prediction. There seems to be something in particular about large, highly concentrated gatherings of people - like say NYC - combined with western-style transportation hubs - like say Grand Central Station - that makes for explosive spread unless vigorously restrained - like say Seoul.

But it's certainly a YUGE gamble on Trump's part. If cases start spiking they way they're predicted to start spiking, it'll be close to the 2020 election, and geographically among Trump's 'base'.

Though this probably belongs more in the new deadly ... thread, so I'll x-post it there.

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JACK: Why not just go by the actual numbers?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-15/u-s-2018-births-fal
l-to-lowest-level-in-32-years-cdc-data

First off, we're not going to see close to a million.

SIGNY: Maybe, maybe not. I just did the calc so we'd have a rough number to keep in mind for the end of the year.

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SIX:Secondly, we'd need roughly 3.75 Million deaths to break even for the year.

SIGNY: So. How many people died in the USA in 2019?

Did you find that number?

Yeah, me neither. I found a lot related to...

Death rate...
Top ten causes of death ...
Deaths by state (really didn't want to have to add them all up)...
All causes of death ...

Not what I was looking for. But according to the death rate, 2.8 million people already died in 2019, which leaves us about a million short.

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SIGNY: At the end of this year, someone will probably total up the excess deaths for us, and that number will prolly be easy to find. So, a million, give or take.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Does any of this make sense?

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-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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JACK:
It's not going to be that simple.

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You have to remember that a lot of people dying from The Coomph in 2020 were likely to die of something else.

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Even if you don't agree with that statement fully, you have to recognize the fact that at the very least it won't be an inconsequential number of deaths.
You're going to have to look at the lowering of any of the top 10 causes of death in the US, what percentage they usually raise year over year with a higher population, and how many less there were in 2020 because those deaths were attributed to Coomph instead of those other things.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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It's not going to be that simple.

You have to remember that a lot of people dying from The Coomph in 2020 were likely to die of something else.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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It's not going to be that simple.

You have to remember that a lot of people dying from The Coomph in 2020 were likely to die of something else.

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Jeezus, SIX, did somebody put your brain in reverse? "Dying of something else" is what a NORMAL death rate looks like. That's when people die of things like ... oh, say ... heart attack, or cancer, or stroke, or the myriad of OTHER ills that plague humanity. Adding Covid-19 is when you get EXCESS deaths.

Yanno, the infamous "they" did study that found that, on the average, people with comorbidities who died of Covid-19 would have lived 11 more years (not one or two) without Covid-19.

Oh, and BTW, you STILL haven't answered why your urgent urgency to "open up the economy". Since none of your answers make a lick of sense, or contraadict some of your other answers, you might want to explore that kink in your thinking.

In the meantime, "putting you on ignore" seems like the best thing to do.

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I have no idea what you think I'm 'wrong' about.

I do completely expect you to lie though about what I've posted, like you did here: "Not sure why this COVID-19 scare has you willing to go full Government Control over everything. I suppose everyone has their price and they found yours" when I never posted any such thing.

But if that's what you have to do to yourself - turn yourself into a hate-filled liar, I mean - in order to 'prove' you're 'right', it's not me you're hurting.




In any case, I'm certainly not wrong about the number of dead.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
It should have happened by referendum.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I'm even OK with states throwing the doors wide open, if it passes by referendum, and as long as those states don't then go to the daddy Trump for help if things go $outh.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
There's a reason why I believe that after a majority in a referendum states should be able to throw their doors wide open, but only with the caveat that they can't then later tap into federal monies for help with COVID-19.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Now, in case you think I'm in favor of social isolation, I'd like to remind you that I'm all for states opening up without any controls at all ... as long as it passes by majority referendum, and as long as they don't later go to the feds for COVID $help$ because they messed up.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I say throw the doors wide open! especially in those republican states that hate their fetters so much. But should the virus resurge, I don't think anyone should make any efforts to help them out either. It's called taking responsibility for your decisions and living - or not - with the consequences.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
But what does that have to do with COVID-19 and allowing states to reopen their economies at will, but at their own risk??

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
But what does that have to do with COVID-19 and allowing states to reopen their economies at will, but at their own risk??

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

But you do support government control on this issue.

Taxation and witholding of tax dollars for not wearing a mask is no different than state-wide mandates allowing somebody to give you a $500 ticket for going outside to jog or walk your dog.

You are very much in support of large centralized government making decisions on how people should live their lives when it's convenient to you.


You will be a laughing stock next year. Anybody under 25 already hates the Karens. Those are going to be the adults soon.


If you already think I hate Boomers. Wait till you get a load of them.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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It's not going to be that simple.

You have to remember that a lot of people dying from The Coomph in 2020 were likely to die of something else.

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Jeezus, SIX, did somebody put your brain in reverse? "Dying of something else" is what a NORMAL death rate looks like. That's when people die of things like ... oh, say ... heart attack, or cancer, or stroke, or the myriad of OTHER ills that plague humanity. Adding Covid-19 is when you get EXCESS deaths.

Yanno, the infamous "they" did study that found that, on the average, people with comorbidities who died of Covid-19 would have lived 11 more years (not one or two) without Covid-19.

Oh, and BTW, you STILL haven't answered why your urgent urgency to "open up the economy". Since none of your answers make a lick of sense, or contraadict some of your other answers, you might want to explore that kink in your thinking.

In the meantime, "putting you on ignore" seems like the best thing to do.

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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I'm not saying that you're not going to have excess deaths.


But when the numbers for 2020 to 2022 come out for the top 10 reasons of deaths in America, expect a huge abnormality among them because The Coomph got the credit for them in 2020.

I fail to see what's so hard to grasp about this concept. Or even possibly where my own failure to explain this simple concept lies.

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

Generally speaking, humans try to avoid/prevent all deaths. I fail to see why it's so hard for you to understand that very basic concept.

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Generally speaking, humans try to avoid/prevent all deaths. I fail to see why it's so hard for you to understand that very basic concept.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Generally speaking, humans try to avoid/prevent all deaths. I fail to see why it's so hard for you to understand that very basic concept.

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Yes. It's called pattern recognition. It's a basic instinct.


But until recently, nowhere in human history was there a centralized media source that was pumping manufactured panic into the minds of hundreds of millions of people worldwide. There has certainly never been a point in human history while they were doing that to a completely captive audience before.


The "cure" is far worse than the disease. We're going to be paying for this one for a very long time, and the next time that something to actually be afraid of comes around we're not even going to have the money to repeat this fiasco even if people weren't going to just ignore any orders until it's too late to do anything about it.


If it were to really be deadly to the old folks and wipe them all out (which is FAR from the truth), this would a fitting end to the boomer generation. Going out with a cowardly whimper. Very reflective of how they lived their entire lives.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
So I'll just say the same thing to you that I said to Cap'n Crunch. You better start wearing a mask so you don't get a cold, bitch.

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
So I'll just say the same thing to you that I said to Cap'n Crunch. You better start wearing a mask so you don't get a cold, bitch.

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Gee, thanks Jack! And I wish you the best of luck with that heart disease and lung cancer!

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
While gain of function research was being done on bat coronaviruses in the Wuhan lab, it was actually being FUNDED by Fauci's group.

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