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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'm not apologizing for shit.

Don't post stuff that you don't stand behind and misunderstandings won't happen.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Maybe instead of "lol"ing at my comment that a National Healthcare System should terrify you, and then "lol"ing when I explained about the National School System as an example why, you could have just said that you weren't for it.

Because it sure as fuck sounds like it's what you want.

I think you need a time out from the News. You're turning into a lunatic.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Also, BTW ... weren't you the one who was all for a Universal Basic Income, run by ... the government? Seems like you're all for the government doing SOME things centrally, doesn't it?

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Yeah. I am.

UBI is certainly a lot better way of dispersing cash than 1.5 Trillion Dollar Wall Street Bailouts, and would be a much more fair system of distribution than any and all of the existing programs out there.

UBI is NOT brainwashing generations of future adults via a Federally Mandated Curriculum that must be adhered to or else you don't get the tax dollars.

UBI is NOT a centralized health care system which will ration off healthcare at its own whims and expect us all to be alright with the criminals in office holding the futures of all of our well beings in their hands.




You've got politicians talking about a temporary UBI right now during the virus. What do you think is going to happen when half of the existing jobs are automated and nobody will ever be able to go back to working them? It's really not that far off until that happens.



Major false equivalency there. Several in one post, in fact.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Maybe instead of "lol"ing at my comment that a National Healthcare System should terrify you, and then "lol"ing when I explained about the National School System as an example why, you could have just said that you weren't for it.

Because it sure as fuck sounds like it's what you want.

I think you need a time out from the News. You're turning into a lunatic.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Also, BTW ... weren't you the one who was all for a Universal Basic Income, run by ... the government? Seems like you're all for the government doing SOME things centrally, doesn't it?

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Yeah. I am.

UBI is certainly a lot better way of dispersing cash than 1.5 Trillion Dollar Wall Street Bailouts, and would be a much more fair system of distribution than any and all of the existing programs out there.

UBI is NOT brainwashing generations of future adults via a Federally Mandated Curriculum that must be adhered to or else you don't get the tax dollars.

UBI is NOT a centralized health care system which will ration off healthcare at its own whims and expect us all to be alright with the criminals in office holding the futures of all of our well beings in their hands.




You've got politicians talking about a temporary UBI right now during the virus. What do you think is going to happen when half of the existing jobs are automated and nobody will ever be able to go back to working them? It's really not that far off until that happens.



Major false equivalency there. Several in one post, in fact.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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=>SHITCAN

Just to be clear that I didn't miss this post, I'm not going to respond to it or anything else you post here.

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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US halts deployment & recalls troops from NATO’s biggest drill ‘Defender Europe 2020’ due to coronavirus threat

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Originally posted by JACKASS

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Honestly, I could give two shits what Kiki thinks right now.

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She called me "Kevin" because she seems to think that is my name after Nilbog said it and she was being a bitch. She also brought up the fact that Trump's odds are down when that wasn't even related to our conversation

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because she knew I wouldn't like that and she was being a bitch.

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I've asked her what her beef was several times and she plays games until she goes insane?

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Not my problem.

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If anybody should be apologizing, it's her.

But I'm not asking for it.

Man up, Kiki.


No hard feelings here if you're going to start behaving like a human being again.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Not sure why this COVID-19 scare has you willing to go full Government Control over everything.

I suppose everyone has their price and they found yours.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

FIND ME ONE QUOTE where I'm in favor of "full Government Control over everything" to stop COVID-19.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Well, there is certainly no ill wind that doesn't bring SOMEbody some good

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US halts deployment & recalls troops from NATO’s biggest drill ‘Defender Europe 2020’ due to coronavirus threat

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I have mentioned before that the USA has to think about all of its troops, and all of its bases, on foreign soil: Japan. Germany. Mideast. South Korea. Places where the coronavirus could be steadily infiltrating our troops' quarters.


Like the well-heeled, well-traveled, well-connected elites, our troops are also a risk.

*****

If this thing is as disruptive as China and Italy seem to indicate, then the way the world does business will have to change. If nations refuse to take effective measures, then they will probably suffer like China and Italy and their economies will suffer with them, along with a lot of people dying. If the DO take effective action, fewer people will die but economies will suffer anyway: frivolous consumption reduces, supply chains are broken, companies that depend on revenue to service their debt will falter.

Now, I know what will happen, at least here in the USA: The Fed will shit trillions at banks and big corporations, and the government maybe $330 billion to us peons. (That's $1000 for every person in the USA, including children, which sounds like a lot of money but is probably two or three orders of magnitude LESS than what's going to the wealthy elite.)

There will be sporadic and unccordinated quarantines, partial shudowns, random "shelter in place" orders, but we will only know of they're going to be effective in the bellweather states of Washington, California, New York and Connecticut (where the rich people of NYC live). Other states, which are far behind the experience, will hopefully take a lesson.

Testing is STILL constrained. Trump will try to control the bad news instead of facing it head-on, just like he and the Fed goosed the stock market instead of addressing the economy. The everything-bubble, which the Fed blew under Obama AND Trump, will pop. They will blame the coronavirus instead of the massive debt that they all took on.

It will be an interesting time. I'll put my thinking cap on.






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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Number Of Confirmed Covid-19 Cases In US Passes 5,000 As Global Total Nears 200K: Live Updates

...
Cuomo reports 432 new cases, bringing state total over 1,000 and retaking No. 1 spot

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think, KIKI, that you're forgetting that China and Russia are subtly trying to topple the USA petrodollar at a time when we are at our most vulnerable (everything bubble, coronvirus, and now oil price war).

The Fed's only possible response (and I mean "only possible", the Fed literally doesn't have any other mode of action in its arsenal) is to pump even more debt into the economy. And while the government (Trump) has a lot more modes of action, it won't take them because Trump is unwilling or incapable of perceiving anything other than throwing more dollars into the bonfire.


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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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White House Takes New Line After Dire Report on Death Toll

Federal guidelines warned against gatherings of more than 10 people as a London report predicted high fatalities in the U.S. without drastic action.

Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.

To curb the epidemic, there would need to be drastic restrictions on work, school and social gatherings for periods of time until a vaccine was available, which could take 18 months, according to the report, compiled by British researchers. They cautioned that such steps carried enormous costs that could also affect people’s health, but concluded they were “the only viable strategy at the current time.”

That is because different steps, intended to drive down transmission by isolating patients, quarantining those in contact with them and keeping the most vulnerable apart from others for three months, could only cut the predicted death toll by half, the new report said.

The White House guidelines urged Americans to avoid gatherings of more than 10 people. That is a more restrictive stance than recommendations released on Sunday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which said that gatherings should be limited to 50.

The White House also recommended that Americans work from home, avoid unnecessary shopping trips and refrain from eating in restaurants. Some states and cities have already imposed stricter measures, including lockdowns and business closings.

Asked at a news conference with President Trump about what had led to the change in thinking by a White House task force, Dr. Deborah Birx, one of the task force leaders, said new information had come from a model developed in Britain.

“What had the biggest impact in the model is social distancing, small groups, not going in public in large groups,” Dr. Birx said. “The most important thing was if one person in the household became infected, the whole household self-quarantined for 14 days. Because that stops 100 percent of the transmission outside of the household.”

Dr. Birx’s description of the findings was consistent with those in the report, released on Monday by an epidemic modeling group at Imperial College London. The lead author of the study, Neil Ferguson, an epidemiology professor, said in an interview that his group had shared their projections with the White House task force about a week ago and that an early copy of the report was sent over the weekend.

The group has also shared its fatality estimates with the C.D.C., Dr. Ferguson said, including that eight to nine percent of people in the most vulnerable age group, 80 and older, could die if infected.

Get an informed guide to the global outbreak with our daily coronavirus newsletter.

“We don’t have a clear exit strategy,” Dr. Ferguson said of the recommended measures. “We’re going to have to suppress this virus — frankly, indefinitely — until we have a vaccine.”

“It’s a difficult position for the world to be in,” he added.

The report, which was not released in a peer-reviewed journal but was authored by 30 scientists on behalf of Imperial College’s coronavirus response team, simulated the role of public health measures aimed at reducing contact.

“The effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission,” the authors wrote.

Dr. Ferguson said the potential health impacts were comparable to the devastating 1918 influenza outbreak, and would “kind of overwhelm health system capacity in any developed country, including the United States,” unless measures to reduce the spread of the virus were taken.

The White House task force did not respond to requests for comment. Officials stressed that the federal government’s restrictive new guidelines would be re-evaluated after 15 days, although they hinted that they were likely to be extended.

The study’s authors said their research made it clear that people in the United States might be advised to continue with draconian restrictions on their daily lives for far longer than Mr. Trump and the task force indicated on Monday.

“The major challenge of suppression,” the British scientists concluded, is the length of time that intensive interventions would be needed, given that “we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.”

The authors said that so-called mitigation policies alone — isolating people suspected of having the virus at home, quarantining their contacts and separating the most vulnerable people from others — might reduce the peak demand on the health care system by two-thirds and deaths by half if applied for three months. But that would still result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and in health systems “overwhelmed many times over,” they said.

This was why the authors also recommended measures to distance the entire population, such as school closures. Those interventions, they suggested, could be “relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows" and then reintroduced if new infections began growing.

The researchers said that the long-term “social and economic effects” were likely to be “profound,” and that the measures were not guaranteed to succeed and could themselves have “significant impact on health and well-being.”

“No public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time,” they added. “How populations and societies will respond remains unclear.”

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So I was just looking at some figures to try and see where things are. I took current data from the WorldOMeter and selected only those countries with more than 5,000 cases. I calculated the percent increase in the last 24 hours.

The numbers are:

USA 26
Fran 17
S. K. 01
Germ 29
Spai 18
Iran 8
Ital 13
Chin 00

China and SK have obviously stopped rampant spread.

I also calculated case fatality ratio as percent. The numbers are

USA 1.7
Fran 2.3
S. K. 1.0
Germ 0.3
Spai 4.5
Iran 6.1
Ital 7.9
Chin 4.0

SK, with the widest available testing and first-world health system is I think the optimum result to expect. And with numbers somewhat stabilized, instead of rapidly changing timelines chasing each other, this seems a reasonably good figure. Germany with a 0.3 is I think a result of a rapidly expanding number of new cases. Infected people haven't had a chance to die yet and catch up to the number of new cases. But we'll see how the numbers develop over time.

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More National Guard Troops Deployed In Geogia Than People Who've Tested Positive For Covid-19

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Darn. I should have kept track of how MANY times people have promised more testing kits - for sure this time! - and have the promise fizzle.

Well, here's one for the end of this week. For sure.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8088669/Vulnerable-Americans-
need-avoid-crowds-U-S-health-official-warns.html

Tuesday, Mar 17th 2020

Top coronavirus expert Dr Fauci says four million tests should be available by end of week

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think it would be interesting to have data from TWO types of tests ... serology tests, which look for the presence of circulating antibodies in the blood. Since antibodies persist for months (for MERS, a coronavirus, that's 34 months) it should be possible to test for the number of people who had COVID-19 at one time or another, even asymptomatically. It should reveal the true infection rate, which would help calculate the true Rnaught and well as the true case fatality rate.

The other test- for the virus itself- should reveal who is actively infected.

Is that about right, KIKI?

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Just rough-sketching how the numbers are zooming up in the USA .... JSF, you really should chart that, it's eye-opening ....

I place my marker on the USA hitting 10,000 in four days. March 21. (Actually, my chart says in two days, but even I can't believe it's expanding that fast. I should plug the numbers into an exponential regression-line calculation and see what a more accurate estimate gets me.)

I can't imagine when we reach 20,000 ... a few days after 10,000? March 25?

When will the CDC change the criteria for testing? When hell freezes over. (My calendar doesn't go out that far)


Well, good, bad, or indifferent, I've put my markers down. Let's see how good I was at sketching this out.

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Originally posted by second:
When the researchers started putting their data together, they suspected the model would show that reported cases were just “the tip of the iceberg” for the spread of infection, Shaman said. That suspicion was based on past research involving more benign coronaviruses — such as those that cause the common cold. Such research suggested that most infections caused symptoms so mild that the people who had the virus didn’t bother to report them.

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Their suspicion turned out to be correct. “It’s the undocumented infections which are driving the spread of the outbreak,” Shaman said.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

My post history shows that I suspected that long before they did then.

And according to this article, I was correct.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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ARTICLE: When the researchers started putting their data together, they suspected the model would show that reported cases were just “the tip of the iceberg” for the spread of infection, Shaman said. That suspicion was based on past research involving more benign coronaviruses — such as those that cause the common cold. Such research suggested that most infections caused symptoms so mild that the people who had the virus didn’t bother to report them.

SIX: My post history shows that I suspected that long before they did then.

ARTICLE: Their suspicion turned out to be correct. “It’s the undocumented infections which are driving the spread of the outbreak,” Shaman said.

SIX: And according to this article, I was correct.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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And according to this article, I was correct.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I dunno.
I always said it wasn't a big deal.
Tests are coming out proving me right.
Big nothing burger.
Wowie!

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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