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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

I've looked at the cities to the west of us already, an they are pretty high. But then, so is our city. When I go grocery shopping, everyone is masked up (except for a few doofuses who have slipped the mask off their noses) so how is this happening?

On one of those neighborhood chat sites, people have mentioned that SOME families are hosting excessively large parties .... ten, 15 cars parked on the street. So maybe that accounts for some clusters, but this spread doesn't appear to be occurring in clusters, it seems to be in onesies and twosies. (Of course, more granular data might help.) Three weeks ago, about half of the people were masked up outdoors, now hardly anyone is.

I DO see people handling their masks very carelessly. But then again, if everyone is maksed up the viral load on the mask face should be pretty low. I dunno.

I was hoping that with people masking up, the cases would be going down, not up. It would be nice if we could be less vigilent, not more, but that's not about to happen.

Also, I noticed that besides Vernon - a highly industrialized city - another highly industrialized city is the City of Industry.



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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
As a general rule, looking at Divoc-91, it looks like while new cases are zooming, new hospitalizations and deaths aren't. There are some states that are going up, some that are going down. I think that what's happening is at this point there is enough testing capacity to reveal a truer # of cases, but those cases aren't resulting in higher hospitalizations or deaths.

One possibilty is that the treatments are more successful. Another possibility is that the virus is mutating. Not sure what's going on.

I'll have to do a state-by-state review of the charts because the population-adjusted charts are all on top of each other, which means that previously uninfected states are joining the crowd.

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/06/22/coronavirus-hospital
izations-are-spiking-in-arizona-where-trump-is-scheduled-to-speak-tuesday/#3c4ecf83202c
Arizona Department of Health Services reported Monday that inpatient beds, ICU beds, ventilators in use and emergency room visits for suspected and confirmed Covid-19 patients all hit their highest-ever numbers this weekend, ahead of President Trump's visit on Tuesday.

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https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/article24370843
2.html
“To state the obvious, COVID-19 is now spreading at an unacceptable rate in Texas, and it must be corralled,” Abbott said during a press conference from the Texas Capitol. Two of the key metrics Abbott said he is assessing — hospitalization levels and the infection rate — have been on the rise since late May.
Hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients reached a new all-time high Monday for the eleventh straight day. According to Texas Department of State Health Services data, 3,711 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized Monday — an increase of 302 patients from the previous record of 3,409 hospitalized Sunday. And they have more than doubled since the 1,511 patients hospitalized on Memorial Day.
The infection rate — the number of positive cases out of the total tested — has also been trending upward. After reaching a recent low of 4.27% on May 26, the state’s seven-day average infection rate has more than doubled and was at 9.51% Sunday, according to DSHS.

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https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243694827.html Florida adds 3,494 COVID-19 cases as current hospitalizations keep rising in Miami-Dade

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https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-orlando-
hospitalizations-masking-policies-20200622-mg6obdwj6japlm2fsauqxwvvey-story.html

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

On one of those neighborhood chat sites, people have mentioned that SOME families are hosting excessively large parties .... ten, 15 cars parked on the street. So maybe that accounts for some clusters...

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In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ­esti­mated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26 percent of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

Estimates for the coronavirus’ lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the ­so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected.

Tracking deaths is relatively easy. But tracking infections can be tough. Many people who are infected with respiratory ­viruses like influenza or the novel coronavirus have only mild symptoms or none. They may never be tested or even know they are infected.

Probably the best way to discover the real number is through antibody tests, which measure how many people have already been infected and recovered — even if they never had symptoms.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
https://nypost.com/2020/06/25/getting-realistic-about-the-coronavirus-
death-rate/

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In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ­esti­mated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26 percent of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

Estimates for the coronavirus’ lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the ­so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected.

Tracking deaths is relatively easy. But tracking infections can be tough. Many people who are infected with respiratory ­viruses like influenza or the novel coronavirus have only mild symptoms or none. They may never be tested or even know they are infected.

Probably the best way to discover the real number is through antibody tests, which measure how many people have already been infected and recovered — even if they never had symptoms.

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Kind of saying pretty much everything I've been saying all along. In fact, it sounds like I wrote the article.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

With coronavirus infections rising again across the nation, the question of just how lethal the ­virus is has become more crucial than ever.

Early in the epidemic, public-health experts feared the virus might kill up to 2 percent of those infected, potentially causing millions of deaths in the United States and tens of millions worldwide. Those terrifying estimates prompted the lockdowns that have done incalculable harm to the economy, shattered small businesses and left children traumatized and untold numbers suffering from brutal isolation.

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But we now know much more about the virus. And we know its lethality is lower than we originally feared — and highly concentrated in the very elderly and people with serious health problems.

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In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ­esti­mated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26 percent of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people.

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New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.10.20127670v1
A confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection substantially increased the probability of death across all patient groups, ranging from nine (6 to 15) times the population mortality in 35-year old infected females to a 53-fold increase (46 to 59) for 95 year old infected males.

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Estimates for the coronavirus’ lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the ­so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected.

Tracking deaths is relatively easy.

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Background: It has been suggested that many of those who died from COVID-19 were older, had more comorbidities, and would have died within a short period anyway.
Conclusions: Over 75% of COVID-19 deaths in April 2020 were excess deaths ...
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051532v3

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But tracking infections can be tough. Many people who are infected with respiratory ­viruses like influenza or the novel coronavirus have only mild symptoms or none. They may never be tested or even know they are infected.

Thus, in the early stages of an epidemic, scientists must guess at the number of mild and hidden infections.

Probably the best way to discover the real number is through antibody tests, which measure how many people have already been infected and recovered — even if they never had symptoms.

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Unlike some other countries, the United States still hasn’t completed a national random antibody study — yet another way in which our public-health establishment has failed to get the data we need to make good decisions about lockdowns. But some counties, states and countries have.

Those studies ...

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... consistently show that far more people have been infected with and recovered from the coronavirus than suggested by data from tests that only measure current infections. Tests of municipal sewage systems — measuring the virus’ genetic signature in wastewater — have had similar findings.

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Nearly all the studies find between 10 and 100 times the number of total infections as reported infections, with the average somewhere around 20 to 25 times.

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In other words, while the CDC reports 2.34 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus, the actual number of infected and recovered people may be closer to 50 million. (CDC Director Robert Redfield told journalists Thursday that the number of cases may be 10 times higher than the earlier 2.34 million.)

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Thus, the death rate, which would be 5.2 percent based on that 2.34 million figure, is actually more like one-20th as high — or 0.26 percent.

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To be sure, these estimates still have some uncertainty. The ­actual figure could be as low as 0.1 percent or as high as 0.4 to 0.5 percent, though treatment advances should mean it will trend lower over time. Even at 0.26 percent, the rate is still significantly higher than influenza most years ...

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... more comparable to a bad flu strain like the 1968 Hong Kong flu.

But it is far lower than we initially thought — a fact that should be cause for celebration.

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Instead, some media outlets insist on using the out-of-date estimates that are much higher. For example, an ESPN article this week said public discussions about reopening the National Football League were “ignoring a mortality rate that has been estimated at 1.4 percent.” That figure is more than five times the CDC’s best estimate.

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Even more jarring, it is more than 100 times the actual risk to people in their 20s and 30s — the age range for nearly all NFL players.

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Using those overstated estimates is a recipe for panic, bad public policy — and continued lockdowns that may delay to ­return to normality.

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Let’s hope that isn’t the reason people in the media are using them.

Alex Berenson, a former New York Times reporter, is the author of “Unreported Truths About COVID-19 and Lockdowns: Part 1, Introduction and Death Counts and Estimates,” available on Amazon. This essay is adapted from that booklet. Twitter: @AlexBerenson

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We'll see.

The media has been propogandizing your brain about this for so long, it's refreshing for somebody to bring some logic to the table for once.

The only thing that really makes this virus "dangerous" is the fact that it's Novel and there were no previous built up immunities to it. It's never going to go away, but in time it will be something we live with all the time and levels will go down similar to the flu, if they aren't already there.

And what is your obsession with links, anyway? They're all lying to you.


Bottom Line:

1. You have no possible way of even guessing what the actual fatality rate of the virus is until you know how many people are infected.

2. Anybody who is telling you that they know is lying.

3. Anybody who is basing those numbers off of current known cases to deaths is REALLY lying.




This has simply been turned into a Political Tool now. And since the Democrats run the Legacy Media, it's a tool used against Trump.

Now that the rioting is largely over, we're going right back to this brainwashing. Look at all these Marxist fucks in here parroting what Maddow told them to say about the virus. They weren't doing that a week ago, were they?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Nobody's propagandized here except you, JACK. That's why you brought an article that was full of intentional lies, and thought it was good. Even though it violates YOUR logic which states:

Bottom Line:

1. JACK has no possible way of even guessing what the actual fatality rate of the virus is until he knows how many people are infected.

2. JACK, telling you that he knows, is lying.

3. JACK who is basing those numbers off of current known cases to deaths is REALLY lying.

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It's Not Just Red States - Philadelphia, San Francisco Fear 'Second Wave' As Thousands Infected At BLM Protests
Sat, 06/27/2020 - 13:30

As Andrew Cuomo urges everyone who attended protests in the state to get tested, officials in California, in the Bay Area and LA County and the surrounding area, have warned that the protests over George Floyd's death have contributed to the increase in daily confirmed infection totals seen in recent weeks.

Now, less than a day after San Francisco mayor said she would put plans to ease more restrictions Monday on hold following a concerning uptick in new infections, Philadelphia city officials on Saturday have just warned that they are considering a similar delay, which would postpone the move into the "green phase" of the city's reopening, CBS News reports...

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Philadelphia Officials Issue Mandatory Mask Order, Consider Delaying Green Phase As Coronavirus Cases Rise
https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2020/06/26/philadelphia-officials-is
sue-mandatory-mask-order-consider-delaying-green-phase-as-coronavirus-cases-rise/

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Though the state of PA reported just 600 new cases on Friday, the mayor of Philadelphia announced yesterday that he would require masks to be worn inside all public buildings, and during large crowds when outside. This comes as Philadelphia, and the surrounding area like Montgomery County...

54 New Cases Of #Coronavirus Friday, In #philadelphia suburb of Montgomery County...Despite still being under #LOCKDOWN order.
Don’t worry, those massive BLM protests in Philly, that were encouraged by the dem leadership, had nothing to do with it ?? https://t.co/J3kaSh2Yny
— AuntieMindVirus (@NOTDumPhuk) June 27, 2020

...are seeing a concentration of new cases.

"Today, we will be issuing a mandatory mask order for the City of Philadelphia," Farley said. "There will be limited exceptions, such as an exception for children under the age of 8."

It’s an effort to curb what the health commissioner calls a second wave of COVID-19. But why would this city even be worried about a second wave, if it weren't for the protests that rocked the city for two weeks straight?

After weeks of progress and lowering numbers, there’s an uptick in cases, which is not related to the increased testing, but to young people - including a surprising number of teenagers - attending "social events".

"We have noticed in particular, a spike in cases among teenagers between the ages of 16 to 19 that appear to be from them attending social events," Farley said.

We wonder: Which "events" is he referring to? We suspect most of them haven't been attending graduation parties.

Even (hopefully nonpartisan) health care officials have warned that they're "really concerned" about the situation in the city of Brotherly Love.

"We’re really concerned,” said Dr. Deborah Pierce, with the Einstein Healthcare Network. She said the emergency department at Einstein has been seeing evidence of a second wave, "evidence" which has somehow eluded the attention of the press.

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Twentysomethings and thirtysomethings likely aren't going to bars - at least not in Philadelphia. So where are they getting sick?

"Patients that are in their 20s and even younger than that, and that’s a huge concern because that’s a population that everybody thought was somewhat protected and now we’re seeing those patients with more and more symptoms, not just asymptotic disease,”Pierce said.

Doctors say spikes in cases around the country, that now includes Pennsylvania, are mainly among younger people.

There only seems to be one feasible explanation.

It's offensive, wrong, fascist, and racist to suggest the enormous non-socially distant mass gatherings which occurred in Philadelphia within the relevant time period could have had anything to do with this https://t.co/fTKzOm94DB
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) June 27, 2020

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Even the NYT's Nate Silver apparently felt obligated to point out that 'blue' states haven't been as universally effective at combating the virus.

The relationship between the current rise in COVID cases and the partisanship of a state/city/county is much weaker and more complicated than the commentariat seems to assume. https://t.co/m5wOcjZFTS
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 26, 2020

It's almost as if allowing large crowds of people to gather night after night in violation of social distancing restrictions might have helped contribute to this 'second wave' that we're seeing unfold across the US.

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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20130252v1.article-
metrics
after SARS-CoV-2 infection, people are unlikely to produce long-lasting protective antibodies against this virus.

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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6
(paraphrase) asymptomatic individuals reacted less strongly to infection, with 40 percent having undetectable levels of protective antibodies in the two to three months after the infection compared to 13 percent of the symptomatic patients.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SIX: when I posted "baloney" it's not bc I disagreed with the article but because that's NOT "what you have been posting all along"

What you've been posting is that the disease is fake. That all of the deaths have been "staged".That this is "nothing worse than a cold".

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SIX: when I posted "baloney" it's not bc I disagreed with the article but because that's NOT "what you have been posting all along"

What you've been posting is that the disease is fake. That all of the deaths have been "staged".That this is "nothing worse than a cold".

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Wrong. What was in the article is exactly what I've been posting.


And Kiki IS saying that the article is bullshit.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by SignyM:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SIX: when I posted "baloney" it's not bc I disagreed with the article but because that's NOT "what you have been posting all along"

What you've been posting is that the disease is fake. That all of the deaths have been "staged".That this is "nothing worse than a cold".

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Wrong. What was in the article is exactly what I've been posting.


And Kiki IS saying that the article is bullshit.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Do you want me to go back and start quoting you?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
It seems to me that SARS-CoV2 is hitting different segments of our population at different times. Originally it hit the "well heeled, well-traveled, and well-connected" (mostly blue state cities), cruise ship passengers, and the elderly in old folks homes.

Now it seems to be hitting the working poor ("essential workers" in food production and distribution) as well as young people who partied carelessly, or who attended protests, or engaged in rioting and looting. Red states and blue states both.



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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
It got out into the general population. It's truly in a 'community spread' phase.

Bars and nightclubs, crowded public transport, public protests, private mass gatherings (like the pool party in the Ozarks or the several-hundred-mourner funeral in NYC), and family gatherings and parties, all seem to be hotspots for transmission.



I've been on NextDoor and the ignorance in a v small minority (30:1) is mind-boggling.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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SIX:You can't compare one 500 square mile patch to another adjacent 500 square mile patch in the US.

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And therefore you can't use NYC as a yardstick for when to open up Shutdown/Lockdown other parts of the country.

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Right?

What you CAN do is look at the underlying factors of where and how a region or sector failed, or succeeded, in keeping the virus under control while at the same time keeping their economies afloat and respecting individual liberties. But that requires an interest in knowing what's happening, and not denying reality. Right?

Also, maybe there is NO solution that avoids all negative consequences. Maybe some measures to keep the virus at bay while keeping econonies running will necessarily infringe on some individual liberties, like being made to wear masks - properly- in public. Maybe more money will need to be spent on cleaning subways and less money on elective surgery. Maybe the CDC will finally do its job and be a mandated repository for all deaths and all infections and all case histories where doctors and therapists tried different things (like anticoagulants) and whether those trials succeeded or failed, instead of having to be shared in chatroomsand conference calls. Maybe some people will die. Maybe a bunch of McJobs (based on mindless consumerism) will disappear.

Maybe we will come out of this wiser, less ideologized and more fact-based, less indebted, more united, and more aware. One can only hope

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