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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I thought this was interesting. I'm more interested in the possibility that antibodies may not confer long-lasting protection, but copied the entire article for full context

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Scientists Discover That One Big Assumption That Everyone Has Been Making About COVID-19 May Be Dead Wrong

Virtually all of us assumed that one way or another eventually most of the population would develop COVID-19 antibodies and that once we got to that point the pandemic would fizzle out. Unfortunately, it appears that was not a safe assumption to make.

Yes, those that have had COVID-19 do develop antibodies.

But two new scientific studies have discovered that those antibodies start to fade very, very quickly.

Needless to say, this is absolutely devastating news, and it has very serious implications for vaccine development…

Such findings have implications for vaccine development, since the efficacy of a vaccine hinges on the idea that a dose of weakened or dead virus can prompt your body to generate antibodies that protect you from future infection. If those antibodies are fleeting, a vaccine’s protection would be fleeting too.

Short-lived antibodies also diminish hopes of achieving widespread or permanent herd immunity.

If antibodies can fade in some patients within weeks, and if just about everyone loses them after a few months, that would render any vaccine almost completely useless.

...we are potentially facing a future in which COVID-19 will be with us permanently, and people will need to understand that there is a possibility that they will be able to get infected repeatedly.

It means that COVID-19 is never going away.

And every time you get it, the more severe it is likely to be. Each time it will do even more permanent damage to your system until it finally finishes you off.

... if those that have had the virus quickly lose immunity, there will be nothing to stop this virus from sweeping across the globe year after year.

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Hopefully this isn't true and long-term immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is not only possible, but likely. But since very early I've been posting that to this day there hasn't been a successful coronavirus vaccine - not for the common cold, not for SARS-CoV-1, and not for MERS. This virus might be different from other coronaviruses, but why it might be isn't clear to me.

Anyway, there might be people who are genetically resistant to SARS-CoV-2, in which case repeated local sweeps (initiated by global sweeps) would cause attrition of the human population till only the genetically resistant remained.

Looking at Sweden and Brazil, I don't believe that letting the virus run free would be an answer.

In the instance that repeated infections are possible, the relevant data is *cases*.

Looking at cases, Brazil, which was until recently a truly 'do-nothing' response, had an ~112 day natural ramp-up of ever-increasing cases (3 month 3 week) before recently starting to plateau (measured over its entire national extent); and Sweden had a ~99 day (3month 2 week) slightly mitigated ramp-up before plateauing, then dropping. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

So, if there's only short-term immunity it looks like the virus might have a natural ~4(+?) week bulk population cycle.

But the nature of the virus is to work its way through populations: within populations from outbreak to outbreak, and between populations from one population epidemic to the next. So, assuming no long-term immunity happens, it's only a matter of time until the virus circles back around after the 4-week window, to start up all over again and pick off the next round of vulnerable people - perhaps this time around the young and previously healthy who've taken some permanent damage.

Under those circumstances, it seems the only way to contain the virus is through a series of prolonged cordons sanitaire, to keep the virus from being repeatedly reimported into each area after it had burned its way through.

That argues to me that 'lockdowns work', though maybe not for the reasons initially intended.



Anyway, even in the case where no there's long-term immunity it's possible to defeat the virus the way the original SARS-CoV-1 was defeated ... though given how deeply this virus has embedded itself in the global population, and how easily it's spread (especially with the new mutation), the war would take a significant toll on economies. The tactic involves competent testing, contact tracing, and isolation of infected individuals, and quarantine of potentially infected individuals (the SK model), and I'd say along with universal mask-wearing and social distancing to slow the rate of spread (the SK model) to keep the numbers manageable.

I can see where, if community spread has flared beyond the ability of doing individual testing and tracing, both localized lockdowns and cordons sanitaire might be needed, along with of course mask-wearing and social distancing.

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I want to add that this virus is pretty much a human-to-human infection. There don't seem to be a lot of cases picked up from a human-contaminated environment.

Unless or until we find environmental reservoirs, like there are with MERS(camels) that's what makes this virus ultimately defeatable. It sure seems like it can be done, if we're willing to do what it takes.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Trump Administration Strips C.D.C. of Control of Coronavirus Data

Hospitals have been ordered to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all patient information to a central database in Washington, raising questions about transparency.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/coronavirus-data-trump-
cdc.html

If everyone wore a mask, Covid-19 could be brought under control, CDC director urges

The two hair stylists in Springfield, Mo., broke the cardinal rule of infection control: Despite having respiratory symptoms, one went to work and saw clients for eight days, when she learned she had tested positive for Covid-19. Her colleague also developed symptoms, three days after her co-worker, and also kept working until she tested positive, two days after the first stylist. Together, they saw 139 clients, with appointments for haircuts, shaves, and perms lasting 15 to 45 minutes.
Yet when the local health department identified and contacted the 139 clients, asking them to self-quarantine for 14 days and checking in daily about whether they had developed Covid-19 symptoms, not a single one (of the 104 who agreed to be interviewed) did. Of the 67 who consented to a swab test, every one tested negative. There was one other notable fact about the case: Both stylists and every client had worn a face covering.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/if-everyone-wore-mask-covid19-coul
d-be-controlled-cdc-director-urges/

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Wow. Transparency may be returned. Now folk who die of a stubbed toe won't be counted as CXovid deaths, maybe.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Localized Lockdown? That would be a big change, and Libtards would not allow that. When 90% of counties in a region or state have little or no activity or cases, and the Libtard Democrat shithole Sanctuary Cities have unchecked activity and spread, Libtards and other Democrats demand that every inactive County be shutdown as well (except for Democrat Government employees, and Abortion perpetrators).

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KIKI: Hopefully this isn't true and long-term immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is not only possible, but likely. But since very early I've been posting that to this day there hasn't been a successful coronavirus vaccine - not for the common cold, not for SARS-CoV-1, and not for MERS. This virus might be different from other coronaviruses, but why it might be isn't clear to me.

Anyway, there might be people who are genetically resistant to SARS-CoV-2, in which case repeated local sweeps (initiated by global sweeps) would cause attrition of the human population till only the genetically resistant remained.

Looking at Sweden and Brazil, I don't believe that letting the virus run free would be an answer.

In the instance that repeated infections are possible, the relevant data is *cases*.

Looking at cases, Brazil, which was until recently a truly 'do-nothing' response, had an ~112 day natural ramp-up of ever-increasing cases (3 month 3 week) before recently starting to plateau (measured over its entire national extent); and Sweden had a ~99 day (3month 2 week) slightly mitigated ramp-up before plateauing, then dropping. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

So, if there's only short-term immunity it looks like the virus might have a natural ~4(+?) week bulk population cycle.

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But the nature of the virus is to work its way through populations: within populations from outbreak to outbreak, and between populations from one population epidemic to the next. So, assuming no long-term immunity happens, it's only a matter of time until the virus circles back around after the 4-week window, to start up all over again and pick off the next round of vulnerable people - perhaps this time around the young and previously healthy who've taken some permanent damage.

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Under those circumstances, it seems the only way to contain the virus is through a series of prolonged cordons sanitaire, to keep the virus from being repeatedly reimported into each area after it had burned its way through.

That argues to me that 'lockdowns work', though maybe not for the reasons initially intended.



Anyway, even in the case where no there's long-term immunity it's possible to defeat the virus the way the original SARS-CoV-1 was defeated ... though given how deeply this virus has embedded itself in the global population, and how easily it's spread (especially with the new mutation), the war would take a significant toll on economies. The tactic involves competent testing, contact tracing, and isolation of infected individuals, and quarantine of potentially infected individuals (the SK model), and I'd say along with universal mask-wearing and social distancing to slow the rate of spread (the SK model) to keep the numbers manageable.

I can see where, if community spread has flared beyond the ability of doing individual testing and tracing, both localized lockdowns and cordons sanitaire might be needed, along with of course mask-wearing and social distancing.

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*****
I want to add that this virus is pretty much a human-to-human infection. There don't seem to be a lot of cases picked up from a human-contaminated environment.

Unless or until we find environmental reservoirs, like there are with MERS(camels) that's what makes this virus ultimately defeatable. It sure seems like it can be done, if we're willing to do what it takes.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SIX: Everything in all of your inks undercuts your argumentthat the CDC is "lying" about Covid-9 deaths.

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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KIKI: Hopefully this isn't true and long-term immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is not only possible, but likely. But since very early I've been posting that to this day there hasn't been a successful coronavirus vaccine - not for the common cold, not for SARS-CoV-1, and not for MERS. This virus might be different from other coronaviruses, but why it might be isn't clear to me.

Anyway, there might be people who are genetically resistant to SARS-CoV-2, in which case repeated local sweeps (initiated by global sweeps) would cause attrition of the human population till only the genetically resistant remained.

Looking at Sweden and Brazil, I don't believe that letting the virus run free would be an answer.

In the instance that repeated infections are possible, the relevant data is *cases*.

Looking at cases, Brazil, which was until recently a truly 'do-nothing' response, had an ~112 day natural ramp-up of ever-increasing cases (3 month 3 week) before recently starting to plateau (measured over its entire national extent); and Sweden had a ~99 day (3month 2 week) slightly mitigated ramp-up before plateauing, then dropping. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

So, if there's only short-term immunity it looks like the virus might have a natural ~4(+?) week bulk population cycle.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
How do you get an approx 4-week cycle out of a baseline to peak rise of about 3.5 months?

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kiki - But the nature of the virus is to work its way through populations: within populations from outbreak to outbreak, and between populations from one population epidemic to the next. So, assuming no long-term immunity happens, it's only a matter of time until the virus circles back around after the 4- MONTH! window, to start up all over again and pick off the next round of vulnerable people - perhaps this time around the young and previously healthy who've taken some permanent damage.

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Signy - Supposedly some double-digit percentage of even "asymptomatic" and "mild" cases (10-15%?) sustain detectable heart and lung damage, altho they feel fine, or only mildly unwell.

To pursue this thought further, it's also the "asymptomatic" and "mild" cases where antibodies fade the quickest. So if antibodies don't provide sustained protection, and if a significant number (say, 10%) of people will get re-infected, they will sustain a second round of damage and may wind up permanently impaired. Since Covid leads to microclots, then I can sure see how hearts, lungs, kidneys, and testes could be permanently damaged.

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kiki - Under those circumstances, it seems the only way to contain the virus is through a series of prolonged cordons sanitaire, to keep the virus from being repeatedly reimported into each area after it had burned its way through.
That argues to me that 'lockdowns work', though maybe not for the reasons initially intended.
Anyway, even in the case where no there's long-term immunity it's possible to defeat the virus the way the original SARS-CoV-1 was defeated ... though given how deeply this virus has embedded itself in the global population, and how easily it's spread (especially with the new mutation), the war would take a significant toll on economies. The tactic involves competent testing, contact tracing, and isolation of infected individuals, and quarantine of potentially infected individuals (the SK model), and I'd say along with universal mask-wearing and social distancing to slow the rate of spread (the SK model) to keep the numbers manageable.
I can see where, if community spread has flared beyond the ability of doing individual testing and tracing, both localized lockdowns and cordons sanitaire might be needed, along with of course mask-wearing and social distancing.

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Signy - You have to start with universal mask-wearing in areas where Covid-19 has infiltrated. In the USA, the case numbers are SO high they defy any other approach.
But masks are cheap! There's no economic downside to requiring them ... the objections are primarily ideological.
Another approach is blocking HUMAN movement into, or from, an area of concern. Goods-movement is still possible because "items" don't spread the disease. This would play havoc with tourism and junkets and primarily useless business meetings, but its impact on the overall economy should be low.
And of course selective lockdowns at the city or county level.

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kiki -
I want to add that this virus is pretty much a human-to-human infection. There don't seem to be a lot of cases picked up from a human-contaminated environment.
Unless or until we find environmental reservoirs, like there are with MERS(camels) that's what makes this virus ultimately defeatable. It sure seems like it can be done, if we're willing to do what it takes.

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Signy - Now THAT'S what I call finding the silver lining! You're absolutely right! It's like smallpox... a purely human disease that was eradicated.
BUT, doesn't the lack of a reservior ... plus some of the unusual insertions in the virus ... really bolster the argument that this was lab-grown?
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK

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That being said, there is a literal shit ton of evidence that the data they are being provided is erroneous. Not only that, but the data that is being provided from every single locality is done differently and there is no standards or oversight at all. Zero.

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you're going to see that the overall death rates are significantly lower than anybody has been saying from the beginning

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... on top of people and organizations that are intentionally providing false data ...

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Nobody ever decided that they were going to add thousands of deaths to "the flu" without even testing them and just assuming they were the flu.

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https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm
While flu deaths in children are reported to CDC, flu deaths in adults are not nationally notifiable. In order to monitor influenza related deaths in all age groups, CDC tracks pneumonia and influenza (P&I)-attributed deaths through the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Mortality Reporting System. This system tracks the proportion of death certificates processed that list pneumonia or influenza as the underlying or contributing cause of death. This system provides an overall indication of whether flu-associated deaths are elevated, but does not provide an exact number of how many people died from flu.
As it does for the numbers of flu cases, doctor’s visits and hospitalizations, CDC also estimates deaths in the United States using mathematical modeling. CDC estimates that from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014, influenza-associated deaths in the United States ranged from a low of 12,000 (during 2011-2012) to a high of 56,000 (during 2012-2013). Death certificate data and weekly influenza virus surveillance information was used to estimate how many flu-related deaths occurred among people whose underlying cause of death on their death certificate included respiratory or circulatory causes.

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Some localities report 100% cases were positive because they aren't reporting any of the negative cases.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
No. It's not.

Nobody ever decided that they were going to add thousands of deaths to "the flu" without even testing them and just assuming they were the flu.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
No. It's not.

Nobody ever decided that they were going to add thousands of deaths to "the flu" without even testing them and just assuming they were the flu.

Some localities report 100% cases were positive because they aren't reporting any of the negative cases.

There is zero standards and practices and there is zero oversight. It's a free-for-all.



The virus right now is whatever the Legacy Media says that it is. They control the narrative completely, and just like with anything else they can bastardize numbers however they want.



What I still haven't been able to figure out to this day is why you and Sigs are just buying this whole thing on face value when you're both usually so (rightfully) skeptical about everything else.

It boggles the mind.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
No. It's not.

Nobody ever decided that they were going to add thousands of deaths to "the flu" without even testing them and just assuming they were the flu.

Some localities report 100% cases were positive because they aren't reporting any of the negative cases.

There is zero standards and practices and there is zero oversight. It's a free-for-all.



The virus right now is whatever the Legacy Media says that it is. They control the narrative completely, and just like with anything else they can bastardize numbers however they want.



What I still haven't been able to figure out to this day is why you and Sigs are just buying this whole thing on face value when you're both usually so (rightfully) skeptical about everything else.

It boggles the mind.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Here is a case that they want to blame on the Fauci Flu Wuhan Coronavirus, instead of the runaway Death-Panel-Gone-Wild and Shutdown rules that Libtards enacted to create vacant Ghosttown Hospitals.

https://ca.style.yahoo.com/jerry-dunham-dies-surgery-postponed-due-to-
covid-19-184033235.html

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I saw some chart that suggested that WY and AK have had no deaths.

Could this be true? I have not chased down the details or the context.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

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Wow. Transparency may be returned. Now folk who die of a stubbed toe won't be counted as CXovid deaths, maybe.

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I have no idea what you're trying to say.

"According to the National Association of Medical Examiners about 20 percent of all death certificates are signed by a coroner or a medical examiner. Since autopsy rates have plummeted in hospitals, death investigators now perform the majority of the nation's autopsies, which remain a vital barometer for revealing causes that might otherwise have been missed. In 2007, the latest data available from the CDC, 201,000 autopsies were performed, accounting for just 8 percent of all deaths.

Others who can sign a death certificate include a primary physician, an attending physician, a non-attending physician, a medical examiner, a nurse practitioner, a forensic pathologist or a coroner, but it varies according to state law. In Texas, for example, a justice of the peace can sign.

Once information is recorded by a clerk at the State Vital Statistics office, it is purchased by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) -- the division of the CDC responsible for compiling mortality data."

I know there have been claims the CDC has been fudging the numbers, and that appears to be what you're addressing. But based on your links and reading some detail about death certificates, I can say the CDC does NOT go into the records and change death certificates after the fact. So any claims that the CDC is fudging the numbers has to be false, because it has no power to change death certificates ...

So ... in addition to information I gathered, your links indicate the CDC simply can't change the cause of death on death certificates. And that means that any claims COVID-19 numbers were fudged in the past are false.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/post-mortem/things-to-know/de
ath-certificates.html

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

I'd think if this actually got out into the environment, animals in the ferret family and in the cat family might have sustained spread.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
kiki,

I looked into my notes to find better search details. One relevant change CDC made to definitions was on 24 March.


https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/covid-19.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-in
troduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

https://canadafreepress.com/article/the-cdc-confesses-to-lying-about-c
ovid-19-death-numbers

From these, you should be able to find plenty of statements to the effect of "We don't care what you actually died from, we will code it Covid if there is no testing, no confirmation, caused by something else, or we feel like it"

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

I'd think if this actually got out into the environment, animals in the ferret family and in the cat family might have sustained spread.

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https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/17/europe/spain-culls-mink-scli-intl/i
ndex.html
Spain orders cull of nearly 100,000 farmed mink after animals test positive for Covid-19

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
kiki,

I looked into my notes to find better search details. One relevant change CDC made to definitions was on 24 March.


https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/covid-19.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-in
troduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

https://canadafreepress.com/article/the-cdc-confesses-to-lying-about-c
ovid-19-death-numbers

From these, you should be able to find plenty of statements to the effect of "We don't care what you actually died from, we will code it Covid if there is no testing, no confirmation, caused by something else, or we feel like it"

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What a load of crap.

Seriously.

Unless an autopsy is performed (about 8% of all deaths), the many tens of thousands of people with the authority to write a death certificate use their best medical judgement to assign cause of death (either primary or contributing). If a person dies with a fever, difficulty breathing, and shows cyanosis, during an outbreak of infectious pneumonia, the person writing the death certificate isn't going to write down 'stubbed toe'.

Give the many many tens of thousands of people whose job is in part writing death certificates a little credit that they have the knowledge and experience to do their job, and that they're not en masse on board everywhere with throwing out their professional judgement and integrity to participate in a CDC-orchestrated conspiracy to bump up the COVID-19 numbers for some unknown reason.

And if you can't understand why a completely new disease needs its own new, specific reporting code you're more addled than I imagined.

Sheesh.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Well, you seemed to have undercut your credibility with this overreaction. And your strawmen seem to be multiplying.

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Originally posted by JACKAREN:
Not over the edge.

Just laughing at Karens is all.


Have fun in your little CNN induced mad-world brain.

Do Right Wrong, Be Right Wrong. :)

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
KIKI, just ignore SIX and JSF. They both refuse to acknowledge HIV as the cause of AIDS which already undercuts their apparent grip on reality, and this topic in particular seems to also put them into full-blown denial. Which means they have nothing.... and I mean literally NOTHING .... interesting or intelligent to post on the topic.

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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24 year old mother, fiencee, nurse in training executed by BLM for saying All Lives Matter
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63728
There's no deflection going on here.
I'll tell you straight to your face that you're worthless, Marxist, soy-swilling waste of carbon that hates America.
The only thing you could ever beat is your own microdick if you were ever able to find it.

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