Quote:

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JSF:Do you have an idea, or can recall some of the "misinformation" which has been proven true? Like which specific items?

KIKI: OMG - how many? Start of epidemic. Source of epidemic. Transmissibility between people. Number of cases. Actions taken by China to limit the spread ...
Coronavirus outbreak: Facebook, Google, YouTube and Twitter scramble to contain "misinformation"

JSF: In movies and novels, some plot use government control of media to regulate panic, mass hysteria. Sometimes for Outbreaks, or else Aliens, etc. The mass hysteria of Trump-haters is unfettered, but real information on coronavirus seems readily scrubbed.
Is this all targeting Free Speech?

KIKI: Whether it's intended or not ... ultimately? Yes, Free Speech is a victim, along with actual dead people and those permanently impacted. But honestly, I don't care about the rest of the world. I care about here, in the US. Our 'news' has been distorted for a long, long time. But looking for 'news' on the coronavirus, given my background and experience, it's horrifyingly obvious how deeply it's been truncated to officialese and propaganda.

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Quote:

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https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-19-20-i
ntl-hnk/index.html
Scientists on coronavirus origin rumors: "Conspiracy theories do nothing but create fear"

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Quote:

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https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/scientists-strongly-condemn-ru
mors-and-conspiracy-theories-about-origin-coronavirus

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Quote:

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https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)304
18-9/fulltext

Statement in support of the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China combating COVID-19

Charles Calisher, Dennis Carroll, Rita Colwell, Ronald B Corley, Peter Daszak, Christian Drosten, Luis Enjuanes, Jeremy Farrar, Hume Field, Josie Golding, Alexander Gorbalenya, Bart Haagmans, James M Hughes, William B Karesh, Gerald T Keusch, Sai Kit Lam, Juan Lubroth, John S Mackenzie, Larry Madoff, Jonna Mazet, Peter Palese, Stanley Perlman, Leo Poon, Bernard Roizman, Linda Saif, Kanta Subbarao, Mike Turner


We are public health scientists who have closely followed the emergence of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and are deeply concerned about its impact on global health and well being. We have watched as the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China, in particular, have worked diligently and effectively to rapidly identify the pathogen behind this outbreak, put in place significant measures to reduce its impact, and share their results transparently with the global health community. This effort has been remarkable.
We sign this statement in solidarity with all scientists and health professionals in China who continue to save lives and protect global health during the challenge of the COVID-19 outbreak. We are all in this together, with our Chinese counterparts in the forefront, against this new viral threat.

The rapid, open, and transparent sharing of data on this outbreak is now being threatened by rumours and misinformation around its origins. We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin. Scientists from multiple countries have published and analysed genomes of the causative agent, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2),1
and they overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife,2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 as have so many other emerging pathogens.11 , 12

---

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This is further supported by a letter from the presidents of the US National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine13 and by the scientific communities they represent. Conspiracy theories do nothing but create fear, rumours, and prejudice that jeopardise our global collaboration in the fight against this virus. We support the call from the Director-General of WHO

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Quote:

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to promote scientific evidence and unity

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Quote:

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over misinformation and conjecture.14
We want you, the science and health professionals of China, to know that we stand with you in your fight against this virus.

We invite others to join us in supporting the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of Wuhan and across China. Stand with our colleagues on the frontline!

We speak in one voice. To add your support for this statement, sign our letter online. LM is editor of ProMED-mail. We declare no competing interests.

---

Quote:

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Sigh ... why is tracking down the news in online 'news' so tedious?

Quote:

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https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-19-20-i
ntl-hnk/index.html
Scientists on coronavirus origin rumors: "Conspiracy theories do nothing but create fear"

---

Of course there is no link, no names, no ... nothing. At least there's a quote, which I tracked back to Science, from which the CNN 'article' appears to be directly lifted, without attribution.

Quote:

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https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/scientists-strongly-condemn-ru
mors-and-conspiracy-theories-about-origin-coronavirus

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And the Science article had a link to The Lancet.

Quote:

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https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)304
18-9/fulltext

Statement in support of the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China combating COVID-19

Charles Calisher, Dennis Carroll, Rita Colwell, Ronald B Corley, Peter Daszak, Christian Drosten, Luis Enjuanes, Jeremy Farrar, Hume Field, Josie Golding, Alexander Gorbalenya, Bart Haagmans, James M Hughes, William B Karesh, Gerald T Keusch, Sai Kit Lam, Juan Lubroth, John S Mackenzie, Larry Madoff, Jonna Mazet, Peter Palese, Stanley Perlman, Leo Poon, Bernard Roizman, Linda Saif, Kanta Subbarao, Mike Turner


We are public health scientists who have closely followed the emergence of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and are deeply concerned about its impact on global health and well being. We have watched as the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China, in particular, have worked diligently and effectively to rapidly identify the pathogen behind this outbreak, put in place significant measures to reduce its impact, and share their results transparently with the global health community. This effort has been remarkable.
We sign this statement in solidarity with all scientists and health professionals in China who continue to save lives and protect global health during the challenge of the COVID-19 outbreak. We are all in this together, with our Chinese counterparts in the forefront, against this new viral threat.

The rapid, open, and transparent sharing of data on this outbreak is now being threatened by rumours and misinformation around its origins. We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin. Scientists from multiple countries have published and analysed genomes of the causative agent, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2),1
and they overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife,2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 as have so many other emerging pathogens.11 , 12

---

Now, I did glance through references 2-10. And maybe I'm being obtuse, or maybe they are. There's no question that the virus ORIGINATED in wildlife. The question is, was it later modified? Do those noted 4 protein snippets occur elsewhere in other coronaviruses - especially in its presumed lineage - or are they unique to THIS coronavirus? None of the papers look like they address the question, though one paper https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)304
18-9/fulltext notes that the spike protein (the protein with the inserts) in 2019-nCoV had great divergence (difference) from bat coronavirus. "A notable difference was a longer spike protein encoded by 2019-nCoV compared with the bat SARS-like coronaviruses, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV" which they suppose "might have been transmitted to humans via currently unknown wild animal(s) sold at the Huanan seafood market."; and another paper says that the spike protein region is not a match for bat coronavirus. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1567134820300447?vi
a%3Dihub And no matter what they attribute it to, all these papers note how different the spike protein is from bat coronavirus.

Quote:

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This is further supported by a letter from the presidents of the US National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine13 and by the scientific communities they represent. Conspiracy theories do nothing but create fear, rumours, and prejudice that jeopardise our global collaboration in the fight against this virus. We support the call from the Director-General of WHO

---

Tedros

Quote:

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to promote scientific evidence and unity

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Evidence and unity are NOT the same thing!

---

Quote:

---

Quote:

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over misinformation and conjecture.14
We want you, the science and health professionals of China, to know that we stand with you in your fight against this virus.

We invite others to join us in supporting the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of Wuhan and across China. Stand with our colleagues on the frontline!

We speak in one voice. To add your support for this statement, sign our letter online. LM is editor of ProMED-mail. We declare no competing interests.

---

As I posted above, either I'm being obtuse, or the signatories of the letter are. Having dipped into the references, I found that they ALL noted how very different certain protein regions - or they named specifically the spike protein regions (where the 'novel insertions' were found) - were from the apparent bat coronavirus parent. At a glance, I found NONE of the papers either looked at the variant areas of the spike protein, or compared them to other coronaviruses - or other viruses - for any resemblance. Since they didn't do that, I wonder how this letter might be addressing 'conspiracy theories' ... the one where 4 sections of the SARS-COV-2 spike protein were found to resemble HIV.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:

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JSF:Do you have an idea, or can recall some of the "misinformation" which has been proven true? Like which specific items?

KIKI: OMG - how many? Start of epidemic. Source of epidemic. Transmissibility between people. Number of cases. Actions taken by China to limit the spread ...
Coronavirus outbreak: Facebook, Google, YouTube and Twitter scramble to contain "misinformation"

JSF: In movies and novels, some plot use government control of media to regulate panic, mass hysteria. Sometimes for Outbreaks, or else Aliens, etc. The mass hysteria of Trump-haters is unfettered, but real information on coronavirus seems readily scrubbed.
Is this all targeting Free Speech?

KIKI: Whether it's intended or not ... ultimately? Yes, Free Speech is a victim, along with actual dead people and those permanently impacted. But honestly, I don't care about the rest of the world. I care about here, in the US. Our 'news' has been distorted for a long, long time. But looking for 'news' on the coronavirus, given my background and experience, it's horrifyingly obvious how deeply it's been truncated to officialese and propaganda.

---

Remember Fukushima? The government (theirs, ours) was telling everyone not to panic, even as the reactors were exploding, people evacuated right into the plume, and a US military ship was dusted with fallout. What about 9-11? When "they" tell you "Don't panic" is the time to ... well, panicking is never a good thing, but one must parse the news very, very carefully and do a bit of imaginative projection to capture the scope of the problem. The government will ALWAYS tell you that everything is under control. (BTW ... Fukushima, and it's radioactive contaminants, while "disappeared" from the news, has not disappeared from the globe. The "cleanup" people there want to dump a whole crap-ton of radioactive waste into the ocean. And another tidbit about Fukushima ... immediately after the tsunami and explosion, word was filtering through British Columbian forest service not to use the rainwater collected from rooftops ... apparently the forest service relies on collected rainwater for its outlying stations ... for at least two weeks. SOMEbody had their thinking cap on! Radioactive iodine is extremely volatile and spreads very quickly after a nuclear accident ... and BC was right downwind... but it has a half-life of eight days. Just an example of a pice of info that usually never makes it to the public.)

So, yanno, when "they" tell you it's all under control ... whether it's a nuclear accident, widespread disaster (hurricane, earthquake, EMP), terrorist attack, financial metldown, global warming, cyberattack, the current extinction wave, or pandemic ... hmm... probably not.

And even tho SO FAR disasters HAVE been brought under control and corraled from becoming universal/global, real people have really died and real people have really lost their livelihoods and futures, and the real environment is really getting degraded/contaminated in irreversible ways. (a) You don't want to be one of those people in the path of disaster who really gets sick/contaminated or really dies or really loses their means of survival, and (b) You need to respond to future events.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
NYTimes:

Japan Lets Cruise Passengers Walk Free. Is That Safe?

As a quarantine over a coronavirus outbreak ended, experts expressed alarm over the protocols on the ship, which has 621 confirmed infections.


CNN:

A total of 624 cases of the virus are linked to the stricken ship.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Do you know if there has been any word on how many of the cases had already gotten a negative on a prior test? A prior report had mentioned that something like 1/3 or 1/4 of all of the tests had been positive - so then did those with negative results get to leave, or were forced to remain, and then subsequently become positive?

I also have not gotten a clear handle on another facet. What is the quickest interval known that a person had exposure and possibly contracted the virus, to the time a test showed positive. Meaning they had no further exposure, but eventually did get a confirmation they had it. This is addressing how long it takes before "false negatives" turn to positives. I do understand that this is likely dependent upon where the samples are taken from in the body - and early tests may have not had good information on where to take samples.

If you already ran across the information, I would find that interesting.

The implication is that the Cruise Ship was a breeding ground for the virus during quarantine. And yet, I have not seen any reports that the people who were airlifted into U.S. and then quarantined have then further spread it to anybody else, either with them in quarantine, or to the outside community.

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Are Coronavirus Tests Accurate?

By Karina Lichtenstein on 02/19/2020 4:32 PM
Source: MedicineNet Health News

New cases of the novel coronavirus continue to increase worldwide, with 73,332 confirmed global cases of COVID-19 as of today, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). That includes 72,528 cases in China and 804 cases in 25 countries outside of China.

Some have questioned the accuracy of the statistics released by the Chinese government regarding the reported number of cases and deaths due to the outbreak. Now there are concerns about the accuracy of the laboratory tests used to confirm diagnoses.

Reports suggest some people test negative up to six times even though they are infected with the virus, according to the BBC and Chinese media. Such was the case with Dr. Li Wenliang, the ophthalmologist who first identified the outbreak and was reprimanded by Chinese authorities when he tried to warn others.

Dr. Wenliang developed a cough and fever after unknowingly treating an infected patient. He was hospitalized, testing negative for coronavirus several times before eventually receiving a positive result. On Jan. 30 the doctor posted: "Today nucleic acid testing came back with a positive result, the dust has settled, finally diagnosed," according to the BBC. Dr. Wenliang passed away on February 7 in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak.

False-negative test results, where patients are told they do not have a condition when they actually do, cause several problems. Patients may be turned away from hospitals and medical facilities when they require care. They may infect others at home, work, school, or in the community. Patients' conditions may also worsen without treatment.

When faced with a highly infectious, potentially deadly pathogen, even a small number of false negatives can have a potentially serious and widespread impact on the larger population.

How Do Doctors Diagnose COVID-19?

Doctors use a laboratory test called RT-PCR to diagnose severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, or SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 illness. RT-PCR detects and amplifies genetic material of interest. MedicineNet author Melissa Conrad Stöppler, MD notes that "RT-PCR has been used to measure viral load with HIV and may also be used with other RNA viruses such as measles and mumps."

However, RT-PCR tests for the novel coronavirus are not perfect and not always accurate. A recent study in the journal Radiology examined medical records from 167 patients with COVID-19 from Hunan province in China. Researchers found that five patients out of 167 -- 3% of the study group -- who had chest CT scan features suggestive of COVID-19 initially tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 infection by RT-PCR. The patients were isolated and all eventually were confirmed through repeated swab tests to have the infection.

False negatives comprised just 3% of the patient population in this study. However, failure to detect a small number of cases of the potentially deadly viral infection may have wide-ranging effects for patients and others who may become infected.

Why Are Coronavirus Tests Inaccurate?

The study authors note that RT-PCR tests may produce false negatives due to laboratory error or insufficient amount of viral material collected from the patient. Samples that are stored or handled improperly also result in false negatives.

Tests may result in false negatives if the patient is tested too early in the course of infection and there is insufficient amount of virus to be detected. Improper sampling may result in a false negative.

Another potential problem with test kits: Faulty reagents. The CDC recently admitted test kits they distributed resulted in inconsistent results due to a problematic reagent required for the test. They are now manufacturing the reagents using stricter quality control measures.

In the middle of cold and flu season, it is possible that some people who are being tested for coronavirus do not actually have the infection. Symptoms like cough and fever are nonspecific and may occur with many conditions other than COVID-19.

What's the Solution?

In addition to the possibility of false negatives, authors of the Radiology study note that lab testing for SARS-CoV-2 is time-consuming and that test kits may be in short supply due to the rising number of infections.

So, what's the solution? Doctors in Hubei recently started diagnosing COVID-19 clinically based on patients' symptoms and lung imaging. These cases are reflected in the global tally of infected individuals. Clinically-diagnosed cases account for the approximately 15,000 new cases reported by China last week.

The study authors note typical CT findings can help medical personnel with early screening of suspected cases. Lung imaging may also help predict potential severe complications of the illness.

The authors note that early detection and isolation are essential tools in fighting the novel coronavirus. They recommend isolation and repeat swab tests for those who have symptoms of the illness and characteristic chest CT findings despite negative RT-PCR tests.

How Many People Really ARE Infected?

Many factors are likely to confound the real number of those who have contracted or died from SARS-CoV-2. The inclusion of clinically diagnosed cases of COVID-19 may further muddle the issue. Professor Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia told Science Media Centre that previously suspected cases of the illness are now considered confirmed cases even though some may be caused by illnesses other than COVID-19. Translation: Clinical diagnosis may lead to overdiagnosis and misdiagnosis in some cases.

Professor Hunter calls for consistency in case definitions. That is what is needed to get an accurate picture of the extent of the outbreak and the true number of those who have been infected or died. Accurate numbers also help determine the potential danger for the rest of the world.

Insufficient test kits, inaccurate test kits, changing definitions of what constitutes a confirmed case of COVID-19, and overdiagnosis and misdiagnosis of the illness make it difficult to determine the real number of those affected. Accurate diagnosis is necessary so that hospitals and resources are allocated to real cases.

Quote:

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
NYTimes:

Japan Lets Cruise Passengers Walk Free. Is That Safe?

As a quarantine over a coronavirus outbreak ended, experts expressed alarm over the protocols on the ship, which has 621 confirmed infections.


CNN:

A total of 624 cases of the virus are linked to the stricken ship.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
In all of the media noise, has it been settled whether 2019-Ncov is transmissible before symptoms appear?

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Quote:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
At one point, 492 passengers had been tested, with 175 positives resulting. This is 36%.
If we pretend the same proportions held (because we don't have better information), then 1754 tests would result in 624 positives.

It sounds like the 624 positives were removed from the ship.

Unknown if the other 1130 tested (must have been negatives) were allowed to leave, or were kept in quarantine.

Anyhow, about 2,000 untested passengers remained, which sounds like they were let go to roam around.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

One thing they COULD do is remove people to a better, land-based facility, to be quarantined - kind of like how the US is quarantining people from China in military facilities.

The ship is no better than a cauldron of close quarters and shared air, with crew potentially shuttling the virus from room to room. There are more effective and humane ways of dealing with it.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

Well, one thing we know now is that they haven't tested everyone. That's a serious gap in whatever information one might hope to glean from the situation.

And btw, I hope Japan gets two huge black eyes and a decade long-divot in tourism over their handling of this. They deserve it.

Speaking of the people on the ship ... I think one would have to be made of incredibly strong mental stuff to not be driven crazy. Not only are they trapped in their cabins, but they watch the virus hit passengers one by one, and they can't escape.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

This just occurred to me - while the Diamond Princess was a stew of infectivity (and omg would I hate to have been on it), AFAIK there've been no definite cases of person-to-person spread in US-based quarantine (though there have been cases of people who tested negative initially 'converting' to positive). That indicates to me that 1) we need better tests !! and 2) there's an arguable handle on how to prevent transmission.

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Clade X Medical Countermeasures
• No known antivirals
Thousands of licensed drugs being screened
• Parainfluenza virus vaccines in development for years
None are licensed
Unlikely to be effective against Clade X
Vaccine research for the Clade X virus has begun
It will likely take >12 months to have a vaccine

May 15: NSC Staff Briefing
• Clade X has pandemic potential
• CDC developed a PCR test
• CDC issued travel alerts for Germany and Venezuela
• Fever screening at US airports for direct flights from Germany and Venezuela
• CDC issued alerts to health departments and hospitals
• Suspect cases should be isolated and reported to CDC

Should the President issue an executive order to suspend air travel to the US from Germany and Venezuela?

June 1, 2018
Six weeks after onset of the first illness
Clade X Situation Update
• President issued a 4-week suspension for all travel from Germany and Venezuela
• President decided against deploying medical aid to Venezuela
• Preliminary analysis suggests that the Clade X virus could have been deliberately engineered
• First suspected cases of Clade X in the US have been reported

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Quote:

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WASHINGTON, DC—In mid-May, the US National Security Advisor assembled a team of top advisors to discuss the mysterious illness emerging in Germany and Venezuela, with hundreds of cases and dozens of deaths since mid-April.

Patients, including US military members, were showing up at the hospital in Landstuhl with fever, cough, and confusion. Some patients were ending up on respirators; others fell into comas.

Initially, it looked like viral encephalitis. But it soon became clear this virus was something new—and lethal. It had the ability to be transmitted from person to person through the air, a 5-7 day incubation period, and a high fatality rate.

At this point, officials had no reason to believe the virus was anything other than a naturally occurring virus.

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Quote:

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By May 1, the virus had spread to Venezuela. And while Germany’s health system moved fast to isolate the sick and track exposures, the authorities in Venezuela reacted much differently, denying the outbreak. Hundreds of people soon swamped ERs. The US Coast Guard reported seeing boats of sick refugees from Venezuela approaching Puerto Rico.

By May 2, a culprit had been identified: parainfluenza. Human Parainfluenza Viruses, as the CDC explains, are different than influenza viruses, although they also can cause respiratory infections—and the flu vaccine does not protect against HPIV infections.

The mystery virus—with no known antivirals, no licensed vaccines against it, and pandemic potential—got a name: Clade X.

Thankfully, Clade X is not real, and this was a mock pandemic—an exercise hosted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security last week.

But don’t get too comfortable; the underlying storyline is all too plausible.

The advisors, a distinguished cast of ex-officials with plenty of real-world experience in their adopted roles, grappled with critical dilemmas—while intermittent mock newscasts delivered steadily worsening news about the outbreak.

The simulation aimed to spur US officials and researchers to think through challenging scenarios and questions before the next health emergency strikes. For instance, should the US cave to public pressure and issue travel bans and quarantines when a workable vaccine is likely one year away, no rapid diagnostic test exists, and other countries shut down travel?

The assembled experts quickly mapped out the case against travel bans. Julie Gerberding, MD, MPH, playing the role of the CDC director (a role she held in real life from 2002-2009), pointed out that Frankfurt is a major airport hub, so banning just one leg of the journey wouldn’t work. Travel bans, she explained, are simply “…not effective, impractical and potentially harmful.”

The White House National Security Advisor, played by Tom Inglesby, MD, director of the Center for Health Security, pushed the Council to consider whether there could be any circumstances under which travel would be banned? And, if not, he asked, how should that be explained to Americans, given bans by other countries? The discussion underscored the importance of education and communication surrounding sensitive issues that might seem counterintuitive to people outside the public health community.

Turning to the situation unfolding in Venezuela, the Cabinet considered another question: Should the US send a substantial medical response to Venezuela, though their security and access to health care would be tenuous?

That question stirred lively debate over the security of US health workers versus the US’s interests in offering support to a county in need and blocking the disease’s spread. Reprising his former role as the Senate Majority, Tom Daschle summed up the case for getting involved: “If you don’t visit a bad neighborhood, it will visit you if we don’t have an urgent plan to contain.”

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Quote:

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By the next mock meeting, on June 1, 2018, there was a large Clade X outbreak in Afghanistan. It also hit a US college dorm in Massachusetts, and soon after, Bethesda, Maryland. Lab analysis showed that Clade X had been deliberately engineered; bioterrorists, the Council learned, had inserted genes for neurologic virulence of Nipah into the parainfluenza genome.

The FBI learned that a splinter group of an international organization focused on overpopulation, A Brighter Dawn, was behind the attacks; one member of the group, a parainfluenza researcher from the US, could not be located.

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Quote:

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With the knowledge that terrorism was behind the outbreaks, a severe pandemic looked possible by mid-June 2018. With no preexisting immunity, modeling suggested a possibility of 0.5-2 million US deaths over the next year and >50 million globally.

By June 17, Jordan was fighting a severe Clade X outbreak, and terrorists from the Syrian Republic and Iraq exploited the government’s weakened state to take over the city of Mafraq. Jordan and Israel requested US assistance to stabilize the situation, leading the Council was grappling with questions like “Should we deploy military personnel to assist Jordan?” and “What should we do about hospitals that refuse to accept Clade X patients?”

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Quote:

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The US ended up deploying a brigade of about 4,500 people to Jordan. And by September, 5 months after onset of the first illness, many of those US troops had died from Clade X.

In the US, the virus had spread to nearly half of US states, with nearly 60,000 cases and 3,500 deaths—overwhelming hospitals and straining the supply of surgical masks and respirators. The CDC began encouraging telework and social distancing—including school closures and cancelations of public gatherings. Multiple states deployed National Guard to provide security at pharmacies and hospitals.

Globally, the probable and confirmed cases totaled over 8.7 million, with over 3.1 million deaths. Amid high transmission in megacities, some countries deployed military to keep order and secure borders. Widespread looting in some countries led to violent government crackdowns. A catastrophic outcome seemed likely unless a vaccine could be deployed soon.

One American-made vaccine candidate looked promising. With estimates indicating that enough vaccine could be produced for 80% of the US population in 6-9 months, the National Security Council advisors began to consider how to best allocate limited vaccine to Americans. Should they prioritize those with value to others (e.g., health care workers, scientists working on the vaccine, the military, and key government officials)? Or those most likely to benefit—like children and pregnant women. Or, should they opt for a lottery, giving everyone an equal chance?

“The harder question,” said the Secretary of Defense, played by Jim Talent, a former US senator, “is do we share with those parts of the world that are not capable of producing a vaccine?” Unfortunately, that would add up to most of the world.

That spurred advice from the CIA Director, played by Jeffrey Smith, former CIA general counsel: “This will come to an end … and how we behave as a country will determine how other people judge us in other parts of the world. Somehow we have to keep alive the hope that we can help other countries.”

By the end of the exercise, the much-anticipated first vaccine flopped, and although another vaccine candidate emerged and Clade X did eventually burn out, it brought the entire world to its knees first.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Hopefully she was exposed in Iran and not in BC Canada, and her contacts can be traced, self-quarantined, and monitored.

At least Canada has a health system people can avail themselves of freely - figuratively and literally.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Is Iran a known source of the virus?

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Quote:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Oh, toilet paper. Don't forget the toilet paper in your emergency kit. A pack of N95 masks and a box of disposable gloves and a pump-bottle of hand sanitizer, shampoo, toothpaste, and a month's worth of whatever medication you're taking.


Unfortunately for us, dear daughter can't eat beans and dear hubby can't eat too much starch, so I will have to think up another emergency kit for the family.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Quote:

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Originally posted by SignyM:
Just a comment: I have read of people being reinfected literally within a week or being cured. Maybe it doesn't happen very often, but that does kind of imply that vaccines might not be very successful.

I assume the CDC is pursuing that kind of info more carefully than I can, and if that's the case then they would be focusing on antivirals, not vaccines. We might be able to tell what's going on by watching whether CDC zigs, or zags.

Just trying to read the tea leaves. Extracting maximum info from controlled press is a necessary art form. For example, they were WAAAY more forthcoming about the Zika virus, which is kind of an inverse indication how worried they are now, when the info comes out as clipped mixed messages: There's nothing to worry about and we're taking heroic measures!

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Quote:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Some of this sounds like BS to me, or maybe I just don't understand some things.

There is not yet any test which definitively proves that somebody does not have the coronavirus. Right?

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Meaning, if you have a person in front of the doctors, in the lab, in the emergency room, or anyplace you choose, you cannot ascertain at that moment for certain that the person does not have the virus. You can keep testing for days, and maybe they will fail the test at some point, but at the moment, you cannot know.

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Quote:

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Maybe biopsy or dissection would work.

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There are claimed to be no vaccines or medications to cure the illness.

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Apparently, nobody is able to create antibodies for this virus.

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So how are patients being treated? Just treating the symptoms?

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Mention was made of the virus responding to HIV medications, but then I heard no further word.

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So, how are patients being "cured" and then released. If you cannot prove that they do not have the virus, then how can you prove that they "no longer" have the virus?

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If the virus dropped to undetectable levels, but the patient still carries it, how can you claim "reinfected" later? And during this person's "cured" stage, they are carriers in the pubic, and exposing it to the general population, right?

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I understand that nobody in America has died from the virus, so I don't want to be pessimistic, but I don't think folks have a good handle on it at this point.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Some of this sounds like BS to me, or maybe I just don't understand some things.

There is not yet any test which definitively proves that somebody does not have the coronavirus. Right?

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Right.

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Meaning, if you have a person in front of the doctors, in the lab, in the emergency room, or anyplace you choose, you cannot ascertain at that moment for certain that the person does not have the virus. You can keep testing for days, and maybe they will fail the test at some point, but at the moment, you cannot know.

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IMO, a positive test is meaningful, a negative test isn't. So, I agree with you.

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Maybe biopsy or dissection would work.

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I've wondered if a postmortem test on lung tissue would be reliably meaningful. If so, a biopsy of lung tissue on live patients might be more definitive than the swabs they're going now.

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There are claimed to be no vaccines or medications to cure the illness.

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So far, you're correct. There are none.

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Apparently, nobody is able to create antibodies for this virus.

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It's hard to say since I haven't seen anybody testing for antibodies. There might not even be a test yet. I think though that they could create one. The presence of antibodies in the blood has generically been a staple test to see if there's been a previous infection - like for HepB - for decades. But even if people create antibodies that you can detect, the caveat is that they might not be protective, very similar to HIV. (You can detect HIV infection through antibodies, but those antibodies don't defeat HIV or stop its progression or transfer of infection.)

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So how are patients being treated? Just treating the symptoms?

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Yes. It's called 'supportive therapy' - being hydrated usually by IV, having the fever controlled, being put on a ventilator, etc

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Mention was made of the virus responding to HIV medications, but then I heard no further word.

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There are many trials of existing anti-virals, including HIV anti-virals in combination with influenza anti-virals, BUT: China has not been forthcoming with viral cultures (especially to Russia, which has an influenza anti-viral that's been effective against - I forget but something like - 15 influenza viruses); AND: either they don't have preliminary results yet or the results are a bust so far.

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So, how are patients being "cured" and then released. If you cannot prove that they do not have the virus, then how can you prove that they "no longer" have the virus?

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No symptoms, clear chest X-rays, and 2 negative tests 24 hours apart after testing positive are the recommended criteria, I believe.

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If the virus dropped to undetectable levels, but the patient still carries it, how can you claim "reinfected" later? And during this person's "cured" stage, they are carriers in the pubic, and exposing it to the general population, right?

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It's a rough and ready determination; and possibly.

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I understand that nobody in America has died from the virus, so I don't want to be pessimistic, but I don't think folks have a good handle on it at this point.

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No, nobody has a good handle on it, imo. As for whether or not anyone in the US had died from it ... my puzzlement is - how would we know? It's not a normal post-mortem test.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
An exposed community coming down with it seems a decent clue.

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Are YOU confident that a "cured" person is really cured, no longer a carrier?

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Are YOU confident that a "cured" and then "reinfected" case is really a separate infection, and not merely another bout of the same infection?

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Originally posted by OLDGUY:
not to sound like I'm some sort of zombie prepper (there's other forums for that)..oh..and I am...(grin).... but in terms of risk of death, I figure I'm about 15 million times more likley to get creamed on the morning commute than i am to die of the virus...that said, it's the govt reaction that I try to prepare for....when you see commerce curtailed, logistics impacted, etc...well, let's just say that I've decided it's time to make sure any empty shelves in the deep freeze have plenty of meat, and my food pantry is well stocked...symptoms meds, edlerberry, etc...anything that can help keep you out of the quarantine camps and help you weather temporary commerce shortages. I do imagine this thing is engineered as a possible RNA> DNA delivery platform...how it got loose..nother discussion...but for today, best I can do is prep for the ride.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I will try to post here a timeline of the cruise ship events. It may take a while.

I plan to use only data and info culled from this thread, unless otherwise noted.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:
I'm uncertain of the smartness of getting citizens out of China and back home....? Isn't that how it would spread? How do we know if they are carriers or not? I wouldn't be as concerned if we had a vaccine - and it does not seem to be as fatal (thank all the godz), but still... are they screened first by US Drs before boarding and how effective is the screening? Curiouser and curiouser.

Pandemic series no#1 on Netflix

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I still want to note that I'm not at all worried about this thing and I think that people are taking this way to seriously.

That being said though, I agree with the Captain here. I was talking to my grandma on the phone yesterday and she had the news on mute and told me about them getting Americans out of China and I said "why the fuck are they doing that?"

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Are you not thinking today?

If one is infected on the plane, they are all 200 risking getting it during the flight. Enclosed/confined space.
Once they get here, they are screened several times, and also quarantined for days or weeks if needed - and all would be willing to do so versus the alternative of staying in China.
These are all American citizens, mostly dependants of U.S. Diplomats - so we are lookng out for those who are doing our work for us.


If they are proven to be uninfected now, why would you declare they must be left where they will likely contract the fatal infection?
If one or more are infected at this point, it's not going to get from California to Indiana while they are in quarantine, so what is the problem?

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol
Ok. We'll see if none of them are infected.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I also understand that the plane full of Americans was chartered. I had hoped it was a service of the U.S. Government.


It sounds like the CDC, or other authority, has directed that these passengers from China be detained, effectively quarantined, for some time, perhaps weeks. This seems extremely reasonable. I am sure those now in quarantine can understand, and are grateful that they are no longer stuck in virus-infected China, and are now merely stuck in sunny SoCal. Seems March Reserve AFB is also in Ontario, CA. The civilian Airport they were originally slated for was also in Ontario. I am not sure if they are the same property, merely civilian and military sides. A reserve Air Force Base sounds like a wonderful location for effective quarantine. Large supply of individual rooms, everybody can remain separated from each other and the public, and the government owns/runs it all, so can modify whatever they want to accomodate needs of the situation.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-11-20-i
ntl-hnk/index.html

Quarantine ends for all 195 coronavirus evacuees at California Air Force base

All 195 coronavirus evacuees from Wuhan, China who were staying at March Air Reserve Base in California have completed their 14-day quarantine period, health officials announced in a news conference Tuesday.

There were no cases of coronavirus identified in the group, which arrived at the base in Riverside County on January 29. The 195 individuals completed their final health check Tuesday morning.

Health officials emphasized that they do not have the novel coronavirus and pose no health risk.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
At this point, and forgive me for sounding like a dick here, I'm hoping that this is a bit more serious than I've thought it was and that it does make a large and negative impact here in the states. Nothing earth shattering, but enough to give a serious sting and to get people to be a little outraged about how it was handled.



Even somebody like JSF was giving me shit when I said that we shouldn't let US citizens back in from China, as if I am unpatriotic to even think such an idea. I want him to be wrong here. I want people like him to even think that it's a bad idea to take American citizens back from countries where an outbreak is occurring.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I've been thinking about the overall situation.

Globally, it's a divot. It may be a sizeable divot. It may be a long-lasting divot. But the overall world population, and the global economy, can afford to lose even 10% of people in the long run. We're expendable. People are expendable. Overall - aside from not wasting a good crisis - tptb will go ... meh.

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