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https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/06/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/inde
x.html
Model projects nearly 300,000 Americans could die from Covid-19 by December

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August 6, 2020

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.ht
ml

The ensemble forecast predicts that 175,000 to 190,000 total COVID-19 deaths will be reported by August 29.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
posted for future evaluation

COVID-19 health risk due to pre-existing conditions
grey is lowest, dark brown is highest



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/18/us/coronavirus-underlyi
ng-conditions.html

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
posted here for future evaluation

'Apocalyptic' coronavirus surges feared in major cities as most populous states hit record numbers
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/25/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/inde
x.html

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
KIKI, at 24:17 in the video, you will see the "cases" and "deaths" for Sweden. It's quite a dramatic chart. The "deaths" rise and fall while the "cases" rise, stabilize a bit, then rise dramatically, even as the "deaths" are falling. Then the "cases" fall, They do seem to be going up again. just as dramatically, without ever creating an attendant rise in deaths.

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It's not due to a "lag" between the cases and deaths, since the cases rise for a full four or five weeks without attendant "deaths" ever going up. If the death rate would have risen, it would have risen during that time.

There may be a few things going on to explain that, and here are the ones that come immediately to mind

1) The newer cases may be due to an (evolutionarily-favored) more infectious but less deadly strain
2) The vulnerable people may have learned to protect themselves from the virus and simply haven't been exposed even as the rest of the population goes along merrily getting infected
3) Sweden may have developed a better protocol for preventing death. (Improbable since if they had found such a successful protocol for preventing deaths I think we would have heard about it by now.)
4) The vulnerable people may have already been "reaped" from the population. (I also find this hard to believe since obviously the dramatic rise in #cases shows there was still a lot of "headroom" for the virus to spread within their population)

Overall, Sweden had a LOT MORE people die than its closest analog, Norway. "Locking down" prevented a lot of death. But maybe the answer is to protect the most vulnerable and let everyone else catch the virus.

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There is a downside to that, of course, for the USA. Much of the **USA population** is **obese (40%)**, and much of the population has **diabetes (10%)**. I realize that these overlap, and also overlap with being **elderly**, but there are still a lot of people 50 and under who're at risk of developing severe Covid-19. And if you catch Covid-19 and get even "mild" symptoms there is the possibility that you will be left with lifelong disability: heart, lung, or kidney damage.

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So it's a bit of a roll of the dice with the under-50 crowd as to whether you should just let them get exposed. I guess I would need to know how many people with how many comorbidities are under 50 and what kind of national burden that would pose to have a certain % of them become permanently disabled.

If the USA population was overall healthier, that wouldn't be so much of a risk.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
Thursday, August 6, 2020 10:15 PM
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Everybody is going to get it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
The predictions thread
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=51008&p=16

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new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
Thursday, August 6, 2020 10:15 PM
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Everybody is going to get it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Well, I thought the point of all of this WAS to "flatten the curve" to not overwhelm the medical system. NOT to eradicate the virus or reduce the overall #cases. If that was what Martenson was hoping for, there was a little bit of goalpost-moving going on there!. If flattening the curve was the point then California has done an excellent job of flattening the curve, because it seems to be progressing thru its "first peak" rather slowly.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
As I think about it some more Signy - unless there's a significant portion of the adult population naturally resistant to the virus (Kids don't count! Somebody's got to keep the lights on!) - all we have are delaying tactics until we come up with an answer or answers ourselves.

I'm not sure we should be throwing our fate up to chance, at least not until we've assured ourselves there is literally nothing that we can do, or until we can predict a reasonable outcome.

To reiterate something I suggested earlier, I've been looking at international data to try and see if there's a natural 'break' in either per capita infections or per capita deaths - an upper limit beyond which the data doesn't go. That would suggest to me a biological limit. And so far I haven't seen one. It may exist, but we might not have reached it anywhere yet. Anyway, I don't think we should assume there is one.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I'm just trying to explain a couple of things to myself:

The discrepancy between "deaths" and "cases" and
The DROP in "deaths" and even in areas that don't have either the willingness or the capacity to control the spread of the virus. Sweden, for me, is still something of a bellweather, since they have better recording and reporting than places like Brazil, Peru, or India.


I can understand "cases" going up without (much) attendant death as younger people go out and party or go to work. The average age of "cases" has dropped significantly; I think its in the mid-30's. But why were there so many elderly/vulnerable deaths at the beginning? Was it because that cohort was preferentially exposed (in "assisted living" facilities) compared to young people? Or was testing so entirely inadequate that it didn't reveal the TRUE scope of the pandemic? And Sweden especially - their cases zooming up (again) even as "deaths" decline. Can it all be explained as "differetnial exposure"? Maybe the vulnerable have learned to self-protect better now? Because they don't seem to be getting sick and dying as often as before, even while presumably many are getting infected around them.

Also, the serological tests may not show the true scope of cumulative exposure and immunity (if immunity occurs along this second pathway as well as along the antibody pathway) so ... still puzzling this out.

Masking definitely works. I, for one, intend to NEVER get Covid-19, even if it burns thru most of the rest of the USA.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Well, I thought the point of all of this WAS to "flatten the curve" to not overwhelm the medical system. NOT to eradicate the virus or reduce the overall #cases. If that was what Martenson was hoping for, there was a little bit of goalpost-moving going on there!. If flattening the curve was the point then California has done an excellent job of flattening the curve, because it seems to be progressing thru its "first peak" rather slowly.

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This is a very important point, and I don't know why it slipped by so many here.

This was the fear of almost all those who opposed Lockdown, that Libtards would automatically move the goalposts, change the criteria, enforce perpetual LockDown - which every Libtard Gov did, in fact, do.

I thought many had predicted this, and when it was proven true, nobody seemed to reflect on that fact.

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SIGNYM: Well, I thought the point of all of this WAS to "flatten the curve" to not overwhelm the medical system. NOT to eradicate the virus or reduce the overall #cases. If that was what Martenson was hoping for, there was a little bit of goalpost-moving going on there!. If flattening the curve was the point then California has done an excellent job of flattening the curve, because it seems to be progressing thru its "first peak" rather slowly.


JSF: This is a very important point, and I don't know why it slipped by so many here.

This was the fear of almost all those who opposed Lockdown, that Libtards would automatically move the goalposts, change the criteria, enforce perpetual LockDown - which every Libtard Gov did, in fact, do.

I thought many had predicted this, and when it was proven true, nobody seemed to reflect on that fact.

SIX: I did. And I did.

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One of the things Tegnell has admitted to is that "too many died".

"Dr Tegnell, who is Sweden's state epidemiologist and in charge of the country's response to Covid-19, told BBC News in April that the high death toll was mainly because homes for the elderly had been unable to keep the disease out, although he emphasised that "does not disqualify our strategy as a whole" ... While Sweden's approach had been to increase its response step by step, other countries had imposed immediate lockdowns and gradually reopened, he said."

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About half of Sweden's 5,730 deaths occurred among those in elder care homes.

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While Sweden didn't officially lock down, many in the country have described a locked-down "feeling" that has eased in the summer months.
At the start of the outbreak, only high schools and universities closed; daycare and elementary schools have been open. Businesses have also remained open, but typically at reduced hours, and restaurants have functioned at reduced capacity.
Swedes have been asked to keep their distance in public, refrain from non-essential travel, and work from home when possible. Gatherings of more than 50 people are also banned. People age 70 and over are advised to stay away from others as much as possible.

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"During the months of March to early June, all shops were practically empty, people stopped dining with friends, and families stopped seeing even their closest relatives," Furberg told MedPage Today. "A lock-down could not have been more effective. Handwashing, excessive use of hand sanitizers, and staying home at the first sign of a cold became the new normal very quickly."

"Individuals are also taking personal hygiene more seriously, as items like hand sanitizers and single-use gloves are often sold out in pharmacies and grocery stores."

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As in large parts of the rest of Europe, Sweden now sees that the number of reported cases is increasing somewhat. The agency said it was "still unclear" as for why the curve turns up again, but said what's clear was that young adults aged 20-29 accounted for a large part of the increase.

Tegnell said although the group is less likely to suffer from a severe coronary infection, the development is worrying. "There is a clear risk that it will start to spread from that group to other groups that will become significantly sicker. We must all bare bear that in mind."

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However, the Nordic nation is seeing “an increasing share of cases in the age group 20-29 years,” Tegnell told reporters in Stockholm on Thursday, “and that’s a bad sign.”

“Many see themselves as immortal in this age group,” Tegnell said, adding “there is absolutely a risk of spreading from that group to others.”

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:

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SIGNYM: Well, I thought the point of all of this WAS to "flatten the curve" to not overwhelm the medical system. NOT to eradicate the virus or reduce the overall #cases. If that was what Martenson was hoping for, there was a little bit of goalpost-moving going on there!. If flattening the curve was the point then California has done an excellent job of flattening the curve, because it seems to be progressing thru its "first peak" rather slowly.


JSF: This is a very important point, and I don't know why it slipped by so many here.

This was the fear of almost all those who opposed Lockdown, that Libtards would automatically move the goalposts, change the criteria, enforce perpetual LockDown - which every Libtard Gov did, in fact, do.

I thought many had predicted this, and when it was proven true, nobody seemed to reflect on that fact.

SIX: I did. And I did.

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Well, first of all, it's not JUST "libtard" governments imposing lockdowns, it's also places like China, Russia, and India. You can hardly call them "libtard".

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Well, first of all, it's not JUST "libtard" governments imposing lockdowns, it's also places like China, Russia, and India. You can hardly call them "libtard".

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I don't think that's true in 2020.

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Los Angeles Coronavirus Update: Mayor Eric Garcetti Says DWP Will Shut Off Water And Power At Homes That Throw Large Parties

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
As I think about it some more Signy - unless there's a significant portion of the adult population naturally resistant to the virus (Kids don't count! Somebody's got to keep the lights on!) - all we have are delaying tactics until we come up with an answer or answers ourselves.

I'm not sure we should be throwing our fate up to chance, at least not until we've assured ourselves there is literally nothing that we can do, or until we can predict a reasonable outcome.

To reiterate something I suggested earlier, I've been looking at international data to try and see if there's a natural 'break' in either per capita infections or per capita deaths - an upper limit beyond which the data doesn't go. That would suggest to me a biological limit. And so far I haven't seen one. It may exist, but we might not have reached it anywhere yet. Anyway, I don't think we should assume there is one.

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I'm just trying to explain a couple of things to myself:

The discrepancy between "deaths" and "cases" and
The DROP in "deaths" and even in areas that don't have either the willingness or the capacity to control the spread of the virus. Sweden, for me, is still something of a bellweather, since they have better recording and reporting than places like Brazil, Peru, or India.


I can understand "cases" going up without (much) attendant death as younger people go out and party or go to work. The average age of "cases" has dropped significantly; I think its in the mid-30's. But why were there so many elderly/vulnerable deaths at the beginning? Was it because that cohort was preferentially exposed (in "assisted living" facilities) compared to young people? Or was testing so entirely inadequate that it didn't reveal the TRUE scope of the pandemic? And Sweden especially - their cases zooming up (again) even as "deaths" decline. Can it all be explained as "differetnial exposure"? Maybe the vulnerable have learned to self-protect better now? Because they don't seem to be getting sick and dying as often as before, even while presumably many are getting infected around them.

Also, the serological tests may not show the true scope of cumulative exposure and immunity (if immunity occurs along this second pathway as well as along the antibody pathway) so ... still puzzling this out.

Masking definitely works. I, for one, intend to NEVER get Covid-19, even if it burns thru most of the rest of the USA.

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SIGNYM: Well, I thought the point of all of this WAS to "flatten the curve" to not overwhelm the medical system. NOT to eradicate the virus or reduce the overall #cases. If that was what Martenson was hoping for, there was a little bit of goalpost-moving going on there!. If flattening the curve was the point then California has done an excellent job of flattening the curve, because it seems to be progressing thru its "first peak" rather slowly.

JSF: This is a very important point, and I don't know why it slipped by so many here.
This was the fear of almost all those who opposed Lockdown, that Libtards would automatically move the goalposts, change the criteria, enforce perpetual LockDown - which every Libtard Gov did, in fact, do.
I thought many had predicted this, and when it was proven true, nobody seemed to reflect on that fact.

SIX: I did. And I did.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM: Well, first of all, it's not JUST "libtard" governments imposing lockdowns, it's also places like China, Russia, and India. You can hardly call them "libtard".

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

I don't think that's true in 2020.

< http://archive.vn/l4RJD

Los Angeles Coronavirus Update: Mayor Eric Garcetti Says DWP Will Shut Off Water And Power At Homes That Throw Large Parties>

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I got the point.

In order to protect scared people, we're going to shut off water and electricity during the peak of the summer heat in California and make a lesson of anybody who doesn't abide our tyranny.

Loud and clear.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I got the point.

In order to protect scared people, we're going to shut off water and electricity during the peak of the summer heat in California and make a lesson of anybody who doesn't abide our tyranny.

Loud and clear.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Just like all those libtard governments like China, Russia, and India who are so solicitous of the scared feelings of their citizens - right JACK?

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Well, those libtard governments like in China, Russia, and India don't seem to need an excuse to remove liberties.

So why are THEY responding to this crisis?

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SIX: How many people have you turned in so far this month?

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
How the fuck should I know.

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Not too dissimilar.

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Why do you assume that keeping scared people safe and totalitarianism need to be mutually exclusive?

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How many people have you turned in so far this month?

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]Originally posted by SIGNYM:
So, I'm still trying to resolve the huge discrepancy between "deaths" and "cases", especially since the curves wind up going in opposite directions.

I can understand that both societies and individuals react to the presence of the virus, and the remaining population who perceives that they might be at risk would self-protect much better than the poor souls in "care" homes who had to rely on institutional response, so at this point there are probably at least two very distinct populations AFA exposure: those who self-protect, and those who don't.

But at the beginning, nobody knew the virus was circulating, so they went on cruises and traveled internationally and went to sporting events and work and the gym. I can't see why vulnerable elderly in care homes would be exposed to the virus in SUCH far greater proportions than the rest of the population. True, they're in a mass situation and cared for by low-wage workers who HAVE to work, sick or not. OTOH they're not out working, partying, demonstrating, attending church or sporting events, like others were at the start of the pandemic.

All I can figure is that the true infection rate at the very beginning of the pandemic in each nation must have been much MUCH greater than what was detected. There may be a way to back-calculate what it might have been from the death rate itself, and known infection fatality rate. Just to give you an example: Sweden. If half of the people who died were the elderly sick, I can make a guess that the infection fatality rate for that cohort was (being generous) 10%. SO multiply those deaths by 10. The remainder of deaths were in a cohort whose infection fatality rate may have been 1% (again, being generous), so take THOSE deaths and multiply by 100. Add the two estimated infection values to get an estimated infection rate. Now, instead of an infection rate that's 50X or 80X the death rate, you get an infection rate over 100X the death rate.

If you look instead at the "excess deaths" you might multiply that estimated infection rate by 2X again, since Covid-19 deaths may have been undercounted by 50-60%, so the REAL infection rate might have been 200X the death rate.

If the serological tests showing cumulative infection can account for the infections estimated from deaths, then there's no mystery about what happened. But if the serological tests undercount the infections estimated from deaths, then there is another immunity mechanism going on not revealed by the serological tests, or the antibodies fade too quickly to be a good measure of population immunity.

I would love to try this with real numbers. Unfortunately, I'm still pretty busy and likely to be so for the foreseeable future, but I hope to get back to this on the next few weeks.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

You tell me. You seem to think that the libtard governments in the US aren't too dissimilar to the libtard governments of China, Russia, and India who are so solicitous of the scared feelings of their citizens.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Are you, or are you not in favor of Eric Garcetti turning off power and water service to houses that don't comply with the lockdown orders Kiki?



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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You're talking about giving the government the power to shut off water to people.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

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You're talking about giving the government the power to shut off water to people.

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All I did was point out that the police and code enforcement ALREADY have that authority and have had it for a long time.
This is nothing new.
I'm sorry if that's too much reality for you.

I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep up with facts about SARS-COV-2, and driving JACK over the edge with too much reality.

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